Zero Rss

Pot Stocks Soar As DoJ Reclassifies Medical Marijuana As Less Dangerous Drug

Pot stocks are moving higher in premarket trading in New York after the Justice Department and DEA announced that FDA-approved marijuana-based drugs and state-licensed medical marijuana products will be moved immediately from Schedule I to Schedule III. This is a major shift in how the federal government classifies these types of cannabis products.

*DOJ RECLASSIFIES MEDICAL MARIJUANA AS A LESS-DANGEROUS DRUG: AP

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 23, 2026

The classification is designed to expand access to approved therapies, support state-regulated medical marijuana programs, and make research easier, while still keeping federal controls in place against black market operators.

The reclassification legitimizes medical marijuana programs already operating in 40 states. It also creates a faster DEA registration path for state-licensed medical marijuana operators and protects researchers using state-licensed cannabis products.

"The Department of Justice is delivering on President Trump’s promise to expand Americans’ access to medical treatment options," Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche stated in a press release.

Blanche continued, “This rescheduling action allows for research on the safety and efficacy of this substance, ultimately providing patients with better care and doctors with more reliable information.”

It appears the Trump administration is taking a two-track approach: immediate relief and policy clarity for medical marijuana and researchers, while also setting up a faster legal roadmap toward broader federal reclassification later.

The news sent marijuana stocks soaring in premarket trading:

• Canopy Growth (CGC): $1.48, up about 7%

• Tilray Brands (TLRY): $8.50, up about 8%

• Aurora Cannabis (ACB): $4.01, up about 5.5%

• Cronos Group (CRON): $3, up about 7%

• Organigram Global (OGI): $1.67, up about 5%

• SNDL (SNDL): $1.77, up about 6.6%

• Village Farms (VFF): $3.31, up about 7%

Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ), which holds several of the major cannabis names listed above, is up nearly 6% in premarket trading. MJ remains flat year-to-date but has rallied 33% over the past month.

Related: 

• Half Of Americans Live In States Where Weed Is Legal

Late last year:

• "People Begging Me To Do This": Trump Signs Executive Order Reclassifying Cannabis

Trump is on a roll: 

• Psychedelic Stocks Soar After Trump Order; RBC Says Commercialization Path Could Accelerate

DoJ noted, "Today’s order is reflective of the Department of Justice’s continued dedication to common-sense policies and the prioritization of the safety and well-being of all Americans."

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 09:20

9th Circuit Kills California's ICE Unmasking Law

The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals handed the Trump administration a significant legal victory Wednesday, issuing a formal injunction blocking California's No Vigilantes Act from being enforced against federal law enforcement officers. The court ruled that the state law - which required non-uniformed federal agents to visibly display identification while performing their duties - likely violates the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution.

Carlin Stiehl/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

The No Vigilantes Act, part of a two-bill package signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom in September, was California's legislative response to immigration enforcement operations in Los Angeles. 

The Trump administration had filed suit in November, contending the law created real and immediate dangers for ICE officers already facing what it described as harassment, doxing, and threats of physical violence. The Department of Justice argued that federal agents must retain discretion over their own safety protocols. "Denying federal agencies and officers that choice would chill federal law enforcement and deter applicants for law enforcement positions," the Justice Department wrote in its lawsuit.

The law's companion piece, the No Secret Police Act, had previously been blocked by a federal district court in February on the grounds that it discriminated against federal interests by applying the mask ban exclusively to federal officers. 

 "The No Vigilantes Act responds to troubling immigration enforcement activities in which masked agents have seized people off the street without showing an agency name, personal identification, or badge number, alongside a rise in law enforcement impersonation cases and efforts in other states to recruit bounty hunters for immigration enforcement," State Sen. Sasha Renée Pérez (D-Pasadena), who authored the legislation said back in September, adding that the measure would "help rebuild the community's trust."

The court clearly didn’t see it that way. 

The 9th Circuit's three-judge panel found that “The United States is likely to succeed on the merits of its claim that § 10 of the No Vigilantes Act violates the Supremacy Clause because § 10 attempts to directly regulate the United States in its performance of governmental functions.”

The court further determined that all other preliminary injunction factors favored the federal government, clearing the way for the injunction to take effect pending further court order.

BREAKING: The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals has issued an injunction blocking enforcement of California’s new law that requires ICE agents to unmask and wear visible ID, arguing it violates the Supremacy Clause because it “attempts to directly regulate the United States in its… pic.twitter.com/jedIEO0z2N

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) April 22, 2026

The outcome was not unexpected. During oral arguments in early March, 9th Circuit judges were openly skeptical of California’s position that the identification requirement was analogous to generally applicable laws such as speed limits. The state argued the law treated all law enforcement equally, but the panel clearly didn’t buy the argument that such framing could justify states directly regulating federal operations.

Bill Essayli, First Assistant U.S. Attorney for the Central District of California, did not understate what the ruling meant in a post on X. "Huge legal victory this morning in the Ninth Circuit, where the court permanently enjoined California's unconstitutional mask law targeting federal agents," he wrote. 

The use of "permanently" may be premature — the injunction technically remains pending further court order — but the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution is quite clear, and there’s little reason to believe the No Vigilantes Act will survive.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 09:05

Futures Fall As Iran Talks Remain In Limbo, More Ships Intercepted

US equity futures are lower, but rapidly rising and now at premarket highs after a CCTV report that talks between Iran and the US in Pakistan may see a breakthrough "tonight or tomorrow"; still the optimism of recent days is being tested, with peace talks in limbo, software concerns reemerging and the bond market flashing warning signals. As of 8:15am ET, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 contract both fell 0.1%, recovering almost all of their 0.8% overnight drop. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly lower with TSLA (-2.8%) and MSFT (-1.6%) lagging. Overnight, we saw a slew of positive semi earnings in Asia: SK Hynix sets record quarterly profits. Oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a halt after Iran fired on commercial ships and said it had seized at least two vessels, while the US military intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers that tried to evade its blockade.  Brent rose 0.9% to around $103 a barrel as the US and Iran kept blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The dollar advanced 0.2%, while Treasury yields climbed across the curve. Precious metals are recovering overnight losses and base metals are all higher.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower:  Tesla (TSLA) falls 3% after the electric-vehicle maker boosted its capital expenditures to more than $25 billion for the year to support Elon Musk’s ambition to transform his firm into an AI and robotics company (Microsoft -1.9%, Amazon -0.4%, Nvidia -0.5%, Meta -1.5%, , Alphabet -0.5%, Apple -0.1%)

• ASGN Inc. (ASGN) drops 31% after the IT services company posted first-quarter results and guidance for the second quarter that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
• CSX (CSX) rises 4% after the railroad reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts note that the company is managing costs effectively.
• Comcast (CMCSA) gains 6% after the cable TV provider reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Dow (DOW) inches 1% higher after the company issued a better-than-expected revenue outlook, as supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict led to higher prices for its products.
• Hasbro (HAS) rises 10% after the toymaker posted preliminary net revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Honeywell (HON) falls 5% after the company reported first-quarter sales that missed analysts’ estimates, while agreeing to sell its Warehouse and Workflow Solutions business for an undisclosed sum.
• IBM (IBM) falls 7% after the IT services company gave an outlook that analysts see as cautious. The company also reported first-quarter results that featured an underwhelming read for its software business.
• Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) rises 4% after the company’s quarterly revenue and earnings beat expectations due to strong sales of cold beverages and in international markets.
• ServiceNow Inc. (NOW) plunges 13% after the provider of software for business tasks reported results that disappointed investors and said some sales deals have been delayed by the war in the Middle East.
• Southwest Air (LUV) slips 2% after the carrier’s adjusted quarterly profit and revenue missed the average analyst expectations. Its report, coming shortly after United Airlines slashed its full-year profit forecast, shows the impact on global carriers from higher fuel prices caused by the Middle East war.
• STMicro ADRs (STM) are up 4% after the company gave a strong quarterly revenue forecast, signaling an uptick in demand following a lengthy inventory correction for auto and industrial chips. A strong result from US-listed peer Texas Instruments also lifted the sector.
• Texas Instruments (TXN) jumps 9% after the chipmaker gave a surprisingly strong forecast, helped by booming spending on data centers and industrial equipment.
• United Rentals (URI) gains 14% after the equipment rental company reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate and boosted its revenue forecast for the full year.
• West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) rises 18% after the health care supplies firm boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.

In corporate news, Lululemon named former Nike head of consumer, product and brand as its new CEO as it looks to move beyond a turbulent period. American Airlines and Alaska Air are said to be pursuing potential revenue-sharing agreements and other strategic partnerships.

The recent resilience of stocks has been underpinned by confidence in a Middle East resolution, a dip-buying mentality, robust earnings and AI. But the steep equity rally is ignoring loud warning signs from the bond market. Treasury yields have been creeping higher on concerns about rising inflation, while stocks appear to be looking past any increase in inflation expectations. Don't tell that to semiconductor stocks though, which are now up a record 16 days, and the rally extended in premarket trading. Texas Instruments set the pace with a 9% jump on booming demand from data center builders. 

When you go to a strip club tonight, ask Chyna about the difference between TPU and GPU or DRAM and NAND pic.twitter.com/mDCAi8PWC1

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 22, 2026

With the earnings season in full swing, the likes of Comcast Corp. and American Express Co. reported beats in profit estimates on Thursday. American Airlines Group Inc. warned it saw $4 billion in extra expenses due to higher jet fuel costs. While earnings remain front and center, price action is perhaps not as strong as it seems on the surface, with the equal-weight S&P 500 lagging behind the records set by S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 on Wednesday. The latest batch of earnings also revived concerns about the impact of AI on software companies, with IBM’s results seen as underwhelming and ServiceNow disappointing the Street with a guidance cut. That said, of the 101 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far this earnings season, 79% have beaten analysts’ forecasts, while 14% have missed.

“A lack of progress on US-Iran negotiations may bring some reality check to equity markets after a strong rebound,” said Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays Plc. It’s “hard to see much more upside without more decisive progress on peace. Earnings so far are good, so at least that’s providing some fundamental backstop.”

In politics, Senate Republicans are on a collision course with many of their House counterparts over whether to use their most powerful legislative tool — a funding bill Democrats can’t stop — to narrowly fund the Homeland Security department or to go big and try one last election-year push on affordability. Navy Secretary John Phelan was fired after clashing with top leaders at the Pentagon.

Europe's Stoxx 600 is down 0.5% and on course for a fourth day of declines as business activity data in the euro area comes in softer than expected and ASML shares fall after TSMC said it would hold off deploying the firm’s most cutting-edge lithography machines through 2029. The travel and leisure and mining sectors are the worst performers while telecoms rise. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

• Nokia shares rise as much as 11% after the Finnish mobile network equipment maker’s first-quarter earnings beat estimates.
• Orange shares rise more than 4.7% after the French telecom operator delivered earnings ahead of expectations and slightly improved its outlook.
• STMicro shares rally as much as 11% to their highest since 2024 after setting a strong quarterly revenue forecast, signaling an uptick in demand following a lengthy inventory correction for auto and industrial chips.
• Husqvarna shares gain as much as 14%, the most since 2023, after the company reported adjusted operating profit for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Dometic gains as much as 11%, the most since July, after the Swedish recreational equipment group reported its latest earnings.
• L’Oréal shares gain as much as 9.8% after the beauty company’s first-quarter sales beat stood out to analysts as particularly impressive given the challenges European beauty companies face with a weak consumer and increasing competition.
• Nokian Renkaat rises as much as 7.3% following upgrades at both SEB Equities and Danske Bank after the tiremaker’s first-quarter results.
• HMS Networks gains as much as 12% after the Swedish communications technology group reported its latest earnings.
• EssilorLuxottica shares fall as much as 5.7% after the eyewear maker reported revenue in constant currency for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• BioMerieux falls as much as 17% after the French diagnostics group cut its full-year forecast.
• WH Smith slumps as much as 17% after the travel retailer cut full-year profit guidance, citing weaker passenger numbers linked to the Middle East conflict, while also suspending dividends to aid deleveraging.
• Axfood shares plunge as much as 9.5% after the Swedish food retailer reported results below expectations, which analysts at DNB Carnegie expect to weigh on consensus estimates.
• Entain falls as much as 6.1% after Bank of America downgrades the stock to neutral from buy, citing rising competition from prediction markets and slowing UK growth.
• Carrefour shares fall as much as 3% following a recent strong run for the stock, after the French supermarket operator announced sales above expectations while maintaining its outlook for the year.

In one of the first data points for April, business activity in the euro area unexpectedly shrank for the first time since 2024. The US reading later on Thursday will also be in focus as an early signal of how the economy is being impacted by higher oil prices.

“The broader data resilience has been a crucial factor supporting risk assets,” wrote Jim Reid, head of macro research and thematic strategy at Deutsche Bank AG. “Any sign of that changing would be significant, as it would take away one of the key pillars that’s prevented a more negative market reaction to recent geopolitical events.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined as this week’s continued increase in oil prices and lack of clarity over US-Iran peace talks weighed on investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.6%, after swinging between gains and losses during a volatile morning session. Chinese tech shares were among key drags, while an advance in energy stocks and heavyweight TSMC lent support to the regional benchmark. Oil rose for a fourth day as the US and Iran remained locked in a battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz. Sentiment remained fragile as the US said it was waiting for a response from Iran before the warring sides can restart peace talks. Volatility was high as investors also monitored corporate results for any signs of impact from the Iran war, as well as to gauge the longevity of the AI boom.The Philippine central bank increased its key interest rate and signaled it was ready to deliver more hikes, with the Iran war likely to spur inflation beyond the official target through next year.

“Markets are playing the theme that the Hormuz fallout will hit Asian and European economies harder than the US economy,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg. “It also means that, once Hormuz reopens, Europe and Asia will outperform.”

In  FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.2%. The kiwi is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.5% against the greenback. Emerging-market currencies in Asia came under pressure on Thursday, with Indonesia’s rupiah and Thailand’s baht the top losers. Their equity benchmarks too were among the worst performers in the region.

In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve, following wider losses seen across gilts. Oil futures are drifting higher as peace talks in the Middle East remain in limbo.  Treasury yields cheaper by 1.5bp to 2bp across the curve with spreads trading broadly within a basis point of Wednesday’s close. US 10-year yields trade around 4.315% with gilts lagging by an additional 3bp in the sector.  UK government bonds lead a broader selloff in global fixed income markets as traders boosted bets on interest rate hike hikes by the Bank of England after stronger-than-expected PMI data. Swaps now imply around 59 basis points of tightening by year end, up from 51 bps at the close on Wednesday. UK two year yields rise 5 bps to 4.39%. Bunds also fall, pushing US and German two-year borrowing costs up 2 bp each. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Blackstone Private Credit Fund was the only issuer in the US investment-grade primary market on Wednesday. The US session focus includes manufacturing PMI, following broadly stronger-than-expected European prints. Supply is also scheduled with a $26 billion 5-year TIPS sale at 1pm New York. Wednesday’s 20-year bond auction attracted solid demand, stopping 0.9bp through the WI yield

In commodities,  oil is higher for the fourth day in a row as the US and Iran remained locked in a battle for control of the Strait of Hormus. Precious metals decline with spot silver down 4%. Bitcoin falls 1.5%

US economic data calendar slate includes March Chicago Fed national activity index, weekly jobless claims (8:30am), April manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Otherwise, central bank speakers include Bundesbank President Nagel, whilst EU leaders will meet in Cyprus

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.5%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.5%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.6%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.4%
• DAX -0.5%
• CAC 40 +0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.32%
• VIX +0.9 points at 19.82
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1198.02
• euro little changed at $1.1698
• WTI crude +1.8% at $94.66/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The US intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers that tried to evade its blockade as tensions escalated over control of the Strait of Hormuz. BBG
• Iran showed off its tightened grip over the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday with video of its commandos storming a huge cargo ship: RTRS
• It could take six months to fully clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines deployed by the Iranian military, and any such operation is unlikely to be carried out until the US war with Iran ends, an assessment that means the conflict’s economic impact could extend late into this year or beyond. WaPo
• “We are facing the biggest energy security threat in history,” Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), told CNBC Thursday. Birol has previously warned that the Iran war and ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz would result in “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced” and urged governments to bolster their resilience with alternative energy sources. CNBC
• Wall Street’s watchdogs are ramping up their inquiries into how much risk has built up in the $3 trillion private-credit industry, just as investor angst has sparked some backers to head to the exits. In widespread requests, SEC is seeking information about valuations, loan selection and other practices by firms. WSJ
• Eurozone flash PMIs for Apr came in mixed, with manufacturing outperformance at 52.2 (up from 51.6 in Mar and ahead of the Street’s 50.9 forecast) while services fell short at 47.4 (down from 50.2 in Mar and below the Street’s 49.8 forecast), while S&P notes that the overall economy struggled, with cooling growth (the flash PMI moved into contraction for the first time since late ’24) and surging inflation due to the fallout from Iran. S&P
• Japan’s flash PMIs for Apr were mixed, with growth in manufacturing (54.9, up from 51.9 in Mar) and a downtick in services (51.2, down from 53.4 in Mar) BBG.
• South Korea’s GDP grew 1.7% in the first quarter, topping all estimates on an AI-fueled export boom. BBG
• British workers had the highest increase in tax rates on wages among wealthy countries last year, OECD data showed. An average single worker with no children saw their rate rise by 2.45 ppts to 32.4%. BBG
• Tesla shares fell premarket (TSLA -295 bps premkt) after the EV carmaker boosted its spending plan to over $25 billion this year as it pivots towards AI and robotics. BBG
• The war is solidifying the dollar’s dominant role across global trade. The greenback’s portion of international transactions via Swift climbed back up to 51.5% in March, from 49.2% a year ago. BBG
• The Senate has approved a $70bln funding blueprint for ICE and border patrol
• Senate Majority Leader Thune said he does not have assurances from Speaker Johnson that the House will pass it as-is. Thune expressed frustration with the House over the broader DHS funding bill too and wants the White House to get more engaged: Punchbowl
• Pentagon said Navy Secretary Phelan is stepping down, effective immediately.

Iran

• Iran seizes two ships in the Strait of Hormuz citing violations and dangerous navigation, according to SNN.
• The Trump administration is exploring ways to reset ties Eritrea along the Red Sea coast line amid US/Iran war, via WSJ.
• Lebanon is to request a one-month ceasefire extension in Washington talks, according to NNA.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi tells South Korea envoy that aggressors are responsible for all fallout from the war, according to Yonhap.
• Sources familiar with Trump admin's moves say "the next stages have already been set"; "After the ceasefire ends, an overwhelming military strike is expected to go ahead, with even greater force than the one the US has inflicted on Iran so far". According to the source, the ceasefire that Trump decided to extend will end within a few days. After that, an overwhelming military strike will be launched, with even greater force than the one the US has inflicted on Iran so far. That attack will continue for several days, after which the military operations against Iran will come to an end.
• Iran Parliament Deputy Speaker said the first payments from Hormuz Strait toll has been transferred to Iran's central bank, Tasnim reported.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei opposes extending negotiations under current conditions, according to an Iranian parliament national security member.
• "Somalia closes Bab al-Mandab Strait to Israeli shipping", IRNA reported; "The move comes as a direct response to Israel’s recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland, Yemen Press Agency reported on Wednesday". "external meddling could lead to countermeasures, such as restricting access to the key maritime route of Bab al-Mandab.".
• Israel and Lebanon talks in the US are slated for Thursday at 16:00EDT/21:00BST.
• Pakistani Interior Minister said, "We expect to make progress with Iran regarding the negotiations", Al Hadath reported.
• Iranian opposition sources said air defences were activated in Iran last night against unmanned aerial vehicles, according to N12.
• Iranian-American academic Marani said if Iran's infrastructure is attacked, there will be a lot of heat in the region, SNN reported; adds that people should leave Gulf countries if US President Trump carries out his threat to bomb critical infrastructure.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said a longer Iran conflict could boost the risk for Ukraine's missile defences, added that US anti-missile production is limited.
• Iran sends a protest letter to the UN Security Council and said US and Israel fully responsible for illegal attacks, while Iran demands serious response to attacks on infrastructure, according to ISNA.
• Lebanon PM said Israel's targeting of journalists and obstruction of relief efforts constitute war crimes.
• US Senate votes 46-51 against limiting US President Trump's Iran war powers, rejecting a fifth attempt to limit Trump's Iran war powers, according to CBS.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly negative despite the positive handover from Wall Street, with risk appetite souring amid higher oil prices and following the recent bout of mixed geopolitical headlines. ASX 200 declined with the downside led by weakness in the consumer-related sectors and with nearly all industries subdued aside from energy, while the improvement in PMI data, which returned to expansionary territory, did little to spur a rebound. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses, in which the index retreated after hitting a fresh record high above the 60,000 level, with pressure seen amid fluctuations in oil. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lower amid a slew of earnings updates and as the weakness seen in retailers and autos clouded over the gains in the energy majors.

Top Asian News

• Japan and Saudi leaders held a phone call, according to Japanese press.

European bourses opened mostly lower, and price action has been fairly tentative since the cash open. In terms of individual indices, the AEX (-1%) underperforms, whilst the SMI (+1%) outperforms. The former lags, with ASML (-3%) weighing on the index; the Swiss index has been buoyed by post-earnings strength in both Nestle (+6.9%) and Roche (+2.2%). In a bit more detail, Nestle reported strong Q1 organic sales and maintained its outlook. European sectors hold a negative bias this morning. Telecoms takes pole position, led higher by Nokia (+10%) and Orange (+3.5%); the former reports 4% sales growth in Q1, benefiting from the recent AI boom. Food, Beverage & Tobacco takes second spot, helped by Nestle, whilst Energy completes the top three.

Top European News

• Japan is reportedly pushing the EU to revise its homemade EV incentives.
• Cabinet loyalists have turned on UK PM Starmer in a growing backlash over his handling of the Mandelson scandal, with a senior Government source telling the Telegraph that the wheels have stopped turning in No. 10 and that there is a sense that it is over.

Trade/Tariffs

• A number of EU member countries have resisted called from the French to overhaul a US trade deal, Politico reported citing people familiar with the matter.
• China's He said MOFCOM advises Chinese firms to seek a refund of US tariffs; US tax refund measures are a positive step in correcting mistakes.
• US House Foreign Affairs Committee advanced 20 bipartisan bills to tighten US export controls on AI and semiconductor technology to China.

FX

• G10 FX is showing a picture of higher oil prices, with USD and NOK outperforming.
• NZD is the worst performer today, but it remains positive for the week as markets continue to add to tightening bets: 90bps expected by year-end, 50/50 in May meeting, first fully priced in July. Aussie benefits from encouraging flash Manufacturing and Services PMI. AUD/NZD +0.2% after bouncing off support at Wednesday's low of 1.2105. In recent trade, the Antipodean cross found resistance at 1.2150.
• This morning saw the release of EZ flash PMIs, which were broadly lower and saw a bout of pressure in EUR. The ECB will welcome the French print, which noted passthrough to prices charged for goods and services was contained. The German and EZ-wide figures put the council in a trickier place, where both noted price pressures not seen since the pandemic. Ultimately, the ECB will likely stand pat on rates until it can gauge second-round effects. As mentioned, EUR saw modest downside on the French figure, and there was no reaction to German and EZ print despite inflationary indications. EUR/USD unchanged and either side of the 1.17 mark.
• EUR/GBP is also unchanged despite continued UK political developments, where the PM's cabinet loyalists are said to have turned on the PM, according to the Telegraph. For now, the pound is unreactive as the PM is broadly expected to remain in post-up to the May local elections. This morning saw a stronger-than-expected PMI release, and as the internals pointed to marked inflationary pressures, GBP saw upside, though it remains flat against the EUR. The cross continues to trade below the 0.87 handle, currently 0.8660, marking April lows.

Central banks

• ECB is likely to maintain key rates at the April 30th meeting with the deposit rate seen to be maintained at 2.0% for the 7th consecutive meeting, according to Nikkei.
• BoK and South Korea's Finance Ministry are to strengthen harmonious policy coordination, with Finance Minister Koo and BoK's new Governor Shin set to maintain close communication through regular market meetings.

Fixed Income

• Initial action was somewhat contained, as the morning was dominated by European earnings and the digestion of overnight/late-Wednesday geopolitical updates. On the latter, the main development was pushback against the three-to-five-day deadline from Trump to Iran.
• Following the European cash equity open, modest upside was seen on the French PMIs, where the metrics were mixed vs expectations, but more pertinently, the commentary noted that "the passthrough to prices charged for goods and services remains contained", i.e. no significant second-round effects at this point. On the release, Bunds notched a 125.42 high and OATs to 119.30.
• Thereafter, the German metrics were lower across the board, aside from an in-line manufacturing print. A release that spurred Bunds to a 125.55 peak, though still lower by 16 ticks on the day. Concerningly, the German series pointed to "signs of widening inflationary pressures".
• Overall, the EZ figures were lower on a services and composite level vs consensus, while the manufacturing print beat. Internally, the series showed the "biggest surge in cost pressures" since 2000 ex-COVID. Given this, Bunds fell from the aforementioned peak by around 10 ticks into the UK data, as yields picked up across the curve but particularly at the short end as the curve flattens.
• Onto the UK, where the PMI release appears to have sparked some across-the-board selling in fixed income, taking USTs back to 111-00, though above the 110-31 trough. Bunds down to 125.38, but above the 125.06 base. The UK series was firmer across the board, sending Gilts lower in a knee-jerk by 15 ticks and then further to a 87.02 low, lower by over 80 ticks on the day, on the internal commentary. Commentary that pointed to some renewed momentum in the economy, though caveated, and more pertinently to significant price rises.
• For the BoE, the data will add to calls for tightening. However, the majority of Threadneedle St. will likely, on balance, take the view that they can wait for more data before acting, particularly given the hits to business and employment confidence.
• UK DMO Remit, Revision: 2026/27 Gilt issuance of GBP 246.2bln (prelim. 252.1bln). Breakdown (GBP). T-bill: 5bln (prelim. 5bln). Short: (prelim. 97.3bln). Medium: (prelim. 57.8bln). Long: (prelim. 8bln). I/L: (prelim. 16.5bln).
• Australia sold AUD 150mln in 2035 indexed bonds, b/c 4.10, avg. yield 2.4756%.

Commodities

• In geopolitics, US President Trump said Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi is expected to remain involved in ongoing talks with Iran, while dismissing reports of a proposed 3–5-day ceasefire as inaccurate, according to Fox News. The White House Press Secretary echoed this, noting that Trump has not set a firm deadline for an Iranian proposal and reiterating that the reported ceasefire timeline is incorrect, adding that any ceasefire timing would ultimately be determined by Trump.
• Meanwhile, Israeli media reports suggest a more urgent timeline. Sources indicated that Washington is aiming to reach concrete understandings with Iran by Sunday, rather than merely initiating negotiations. N12 reported that Trump’s deadline for Iran falls this coming Sunday. Additionally, according to Israel’s Hayom, sources familiar with the Trump administration’s plans claimed that “next stages have already been set,” and reportedly include the end of a ceasefire within days, followed by a significant military strike and several days of continued operations before concluding.
• Overnight, crude futures saw an early aggressive move higher, rising by 4% in under 10 minutes, though the upside was faded shortly afterwards, amid a lack of fresh drivers behind the move. This morning, WTI and Brent June futures remain underpinned, with the latter now north of USD 103/bbl (in a USD 101.58-106.15 range). WTI trades around USD 94/bbl in a USD 92.33-97.22/bbl range. Nat gas futures are firmer by around 4% around EUR 45/MWh.
• Spot gold and silver are softer as the rise in oil prices keeps the USD supported. Spot gold dipped under its 100 DMA (at USD 4,735.45/oz) again, and currently resides in a USD 4,692-4,754/oz range. Spot silver remains under its 100 DMA (around USD 78.86/oz; ranging between USD 75.57-78.38/oz). Both remain within Tuesday’s parameters.
• Base metals are softer across the board amid the USD strength, and inflation concerns arising from the elevated oil prices. 3M LME copper trades in a USD 13,208.20-13,486.00/t range at the time of writing.
• IEA's Birol said expect nuclear power to get a "big boost" following Iran war, via CNBC TV.
• Slovakia said that as of 2AM CET, Druzhba flows have resumed, oil deliveries are currently proceeding in line with the agreed plan.
• Chinese Ministry of Agriculture said fertiliser supply is ample for spring farming, with domestic prices well below international levels.
• Chevron (CVX) announces the resumption of full production at wheatstone LNG following the outage in March.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.13, prior -0.11
• 8:30 am: United States Apr 18 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210k, prior 207k
• 8:30 am: United States Apr 11 Continuing Claims, est. 1816k, prior 1818k
• 9:45 am: United States Apr P S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 52.5, prior 52.3
• 9:45 am: United States Apr P S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 50.55, prior 49.8
• 9:45 am: United States Apr P S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 50.6, prior 50.3

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Oil prices are still rising as we go to press this morning, with Brent crude currently at $103.39/bbl, leaving it on track for a 4th consecutive gain. There hasn’t been a single catalyst behind that, but the absence of any peace talks between the US and Iran has led investors to price in a longer conflict again, along with a more extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Indeed, the US blockade is still in place, and yesterday Iran said they’d seized two commercial ships in the Strait. So if anything, the latest moves pointed in an escalatory direction. Moreover, the Washington Post reported that the Pentagon informed Congress it could take 6 months to clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines, which further added to fears about extended disruption.

In the meantime, there’s been no obvious signs of progress towards peace talks from either side. For instance, Iran’s President Pezeshkian posted that the US “blockade and threats are main obstacles” to negotiations, while its lead negotiator Mohammad Ghalibaf said it is “not possible to reopen the Strait of Hormuz considering all the blatant violations of the ceasefire”. Meanwhile on the US side, White House Press Secretary Leavitt said that Trump “has not set a firm deadline to receive an Iranian proposal”, so it wasn’t clear that anything was happening. And even before the overnight moves, Brent crude was up +3.48% yesterday to $101.91/bbl.

That backdrop has led to a fresh selloff this morning, with losses across the major equity indices in Asia. Indeed, the Nikkei (-1.05%), the KOSPI (-0.86%), the Hang Seng (-1.07%), the CSI 300 (-0.79%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.79%) have all fallen. Moreover, futures on the S&P 500 (-0.64%) are pointing to fresh losses as well, despite the index reaching a record high yesterday. And over in Europe, DAX futures (-1.28%) are pointing to even sharper declines today.

Overnight, we’ve also started to get some of the flash PMIs for April. So far they’ve been broadly resilient, with Australia’s numbers bouncing back from March, with the composite PMI just about in expansionary territory again at 50.1. Meanwhile, Japan’s composite PMI slipped back a bit to 52.4 in April, but was still in expansionary territory as well. Notably, there was a surge in Japan’s manufacturing PMI to 54.9, the highest in over a decade. But the report acknowledged that some manufacturers had raised output because of concern about future supply shortages given events in the Middle East. So despite the headline resilience, the impact of the conflict was still evident.

Those flash PMIs will be worth keeping an eye on today, as we’ll get the rest of the numbers from Europe and the US. They’re one of the first data points we get for April, so they’ll be in focus as an initial signal for how the global economy is being affected by the Iran conflict and higher oil prices. Back in March, the PMIs were still in expansionary territory for the most part, echoing what we’ve seen this morning, and the broader data resilience has been a crucial factor supporting risk assets. So any sign of that changing would be significant, as it would take away one of the key pillars that’s prevented a more negative market reaction to recent geopolitical events.

Ahead of that, US equities actually performed quite strongly yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+1.05%) closing at a new record high. That got support from corporate earnings, and Boeing (+5.53%) was one of the top performers in the index after their cash outflow was smaller than expected by analysts. Otherwise, tech stocks did well, with the NASDAQ (+1.64%) reaching a new record of its own, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor index (+2.72%) posted a record 16th consecutive advance. That said, the breadth of the advance was quite narrow, with most of S&P 500’s constituents falling on the day. 

After the US close, Tesla was the first of the Mag 7 to report earnings, with its shares initially rising by almost 5% on a solid earnings beat, but this gain was erased by the end of after-hours trading as executives unveiled that capex will exceed $25bn this year, roughly three times last year’s level. Meanwhile, IBM’s shares slumped by -7% after hours as its software revenues only just met analyst expectations.

For US Treasuries there was a steadier performance, although the gains for oil prices meant they lost a bit of ground as concern grew about inflation. For instance, the 1yr US inflation swap (+5.5bps) moved back up to 3.23%, and investors dialled back the likelihood of a Fed rate cut by the December meeting, which fell to just 30% by the close. So US Treasury yields moved a bit higher, particularly at the front end, with the 2yr yield (+1.9bps) up to 3.80%, and the 10yr yield (+1.0bps) up to 4.30%.

Earlier in Europe, markets were more negatively affected by the oil price moves, given the continent’s greater exposure to an energy shock. So equities lost ground across the board, with the STOXX 600 (-0.35%) posting a third consecutive decline for the first time in a month. Moreover, bonds also struggled as investors grew more concerned about inflation. So that pushed yields higher too, with the 2yr German yield (+3.4bps) up to 2.55%, whilst the 10yr yield (+0.5bps) was back up to 3.01%.

That downbeat backdrop wasn’t helped by the incoming newsflow across the continent. Most notably, the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence measure for the Euro Area slumped in April, falling to -20.6 (vs. -17.2 expected), which is its lowest since December 2022. So that added to fears about a more meaningful data deterioration into this month. Meanwhile in Germany, the country’s Economy Ministry also cut the country’s growth forecast to +0.5% for 2026, down from a +1% projection in January.

Finally in the UK, gilts continued to underperform yesterday, with the 10yr yield (+2.4bps) up to 4.91% as speculation around Prime Minister Starmer’s position continued to swirl. Indeed, it was announced yesterday that more individuals would appear before the Foreign Affairs Committee of MPs over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, including Starmer’s former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney next week. In the meantime, the latest CPI report for March painted a mixed picture, even as headline inflation rose to +3.3% as expected on the back of higher energy prices. On the one hand, core CPI came in beneath expectations at +3.1% (vs. +3.2% expected). But services CPI saw an unexpected uptick to +4.5% (vs. +4.3% expected).

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the April flash PMIs from the US and Europe, along with the US weekly initial jobless claims. Otherwise, central bank speakers include Bundesbank President Nagel, whilst EU leaders will meet in Cyprus

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 08:43

"Mo Hire, No Fire" Economy Emerges As ADP Surges With Jobless Claims Flat

Following the surge in ADP's weekly job additions index earlier in the week...

Today we see that the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits last week was just 214k - hovering back near record lows...

Continuing jobless claims inched back above 1.8 million Americans last week but remains near two year lows...

So are we morphing from "no hire, no fire" to a "mo more, no fire" economy?

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 08:34

American Airline Cuts Outlook After Jet Fuel Shock Bill

American Airlines slashed its full-year outlook on Thursday morning, warning it could post a loss in 2026 as the Iran-U.S. war, which sent jet fuel prices soaring, adds roughly $4 billion in fuel costs.

The airline now expects full-year results ranging from a 40-cent loss to a $1.10 profit, down from its earlier forecast of $1.10 to $2.70 in earnings per share.

"Based on the forward fuel curve and the current revenue outlook, the midpoint of the full-year guidance is expected to be approximately flat to 2025, despite a greater than $4 billion increase in expense related to higher prices for jet fuel," American stated in an earnings release.

However, American beat Bloomberg Consensus first-quarter estimates, posting a smaller-than-expected adjusted loss and stronger-than-forecast revenue.

Management said the airline is trying to shield the company as elevated jet fuel costs erode profits, while hoping that premium and international demand can offset some of the impact through higher fares and baggage prices.

"American delivered record revenue in the first quarter, and we're on track for another record in the second quarter," American CEO Robert Isom stated in the release.

Snapshot of the 1Q26 results:

Elsewhere in the airline industry, the Trump administration is considering an emergency package for bankrupt Spirit Airlines that could give the federal government 90% control. The airline had been planning to emerge from bankruptcy, but the fuel shock sent it into a tailspin in recent weeks, with reports that creditors were planning to liquidate. This complicates matters for the administration, as 14,000 jobs would be at risk.

Other budget carriers met with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy earlier this week to discuss their financial situation amid elevated jet fuel costs.

As we've previously noted, Delta Air Lines is America's standout carrier because it's the only one with an in-house refinery that can properly weather the fuel shock.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 08:20

Here's What Happened Inside Convenience Stores When Gas Hit $4

Continuing our coverage of consumer behavior shifts at petrol stations and convenience stores, the U.S. national average for 87-octane gasoline has remained above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon level for three weeks. Goldman analysts have released a new note indicating that a majority of convenience stores are seeing drivers buying less fuel and trading down in-store.

Bonnie Herzog, managing director and senior consumer analyst at Goldman, penned a note titled Q1 "Beverage Bytes," which covers a survey of 32,000 retail locations, or about 21% of convenience stores nationwide.

"Despite the improved outlook, it appears that some consumers are already changing their behavior as gas prices remain elevated (at ~$4/gallon). Our retailers are seeing consumers purchasing less fuel, downtrading within the store, and declining basket sizes," Herzog wrote in the note.

More than half of respondents (53%) said they are already seeing changed consumer behavior with gas prices around $4 a gallon, while another 37% expect behavior to shift if prices remain elevated. Only 11% said they have not noticed any change.

The most common pattern shifts in these convenience stores were consumers buying less fuel, trading down at the pump, trading down in-store, and buying fewer in-store items. A smaller share also said customers are simply driving less because of higher gas prices.

Last week, Herzog's team published a survey of 44,000 retail locations across the U.S. (about 28% of all tobacco outlets) that showed $4-a-gallon fuel had already sparked trading down among nicotine users: "Downtrading was strong in Q1, as roughly 80% of respondents indicated that deep-discount cigarettes gained share."

To sum up, the fuel price shock highlights just how sensitive consumers remain in an ongoing K-shaped economy, with working-poor households bearing the brunt of the financial pain.

Professional subscribers can read the "Beverage Bytes" note on our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 07:45

European Car Sales Jump 11% As Fuel Shock Drives EV Demand

European auto sales posted their strongest monthly gain in almost two years in March, as robust demand emerged for fully electric and hybrid models. The surge in demand follows the US-Iran conflict, which disrupted energy flows through the Hormuz chokepoint. As a result, petrol and diesel prices at the pump in Europe soared. Another issue is China flooding the continent with cheap EVs, undercutting already struggling domestic automakers.

Bloomberg cited new-vehicle registration data for last month showing an 11% rise to 1.58 million, as demand for EVs and hybrids continued to strengthen. EV deliveries jumped 42%, with growth across all major markets, including a 66% increase in German EV sales, driven by subsidies and more affordable models.

March's surge in demand offers relief for struggling European automakers facing a number of issues, including excess capacity, U.S. tariffs, and weak demand in the Chinese market.

Related:

• Chinese EVs Flood Europe, Signals Hollowing Out Of Bloc's Industrial Core

The problem with Europe is that Brussels had the grand idea of allowing Chinese brands such as BYD and Geely to flood the continent with cheap EVs, undercutting rivals such as VW, Porsche, and Mercedes.

Data for the month also showed that BYD more than doubled its European sales in March to 37,580 vehicles and is preparing to start production at its new plant in Hungary later this quarter. This means China's market share in Europe is increasingly growing.

Tesla also participated in last month's surge, with March registrations up 84% to 52,600, leaving it just ahead of BYD year-to-date.

While it is quite obvious that the surge in Brent crude prices into triple-digit territory in March influenced consumer behavior, driving EV purchases because of the fuel shock that unfolded at petrol stations, we take a look at a UBS note showing that, over the past four decades, oil price shocks have typically remained elevated for five months following prior military events.

All of this suggests that, with elevated prices in Europe and elsewhere, EVs will regain consumer favor. Yet in the U.S., with federal subsidies eliminated, demand remains muted.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 07:20

White House Working On NATO 'Naughty & Nice' List Based On Iran War Support

US officials are drafting what diplomats provocatively describe as a "naughty and nice" list ranking NATO allies based on their support for the US-Israeli war against Iran.

Fresh reporting in Politico describes the proposal, developed ahead of NATO chief Mark Rutte's visit to Washington this month, as placing member states into tiers while outlining consequences for those refusing to participate in military operations against Iran, according to European diplomats and a US defense official familiar with the discussions.

Source: NATO

Politico writes, "It's not clear which countries fit into which category or if Rutte knows about the effort. But the Romanians and Poles could end up being some of the biggest beneficiaries, since both remain in the president’s good graces and would welcome more U.S. troops."

The designations echo earlier remarks by Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth, who said "model allies that step up … will receive our special favor," while those who do not "will face consequences."

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly has stated that countries hosting US troops "have not been there for us," and has warned - based on Trump's earlier Truth Social statements that "the United States will remember."

It should come as no surprise that Spain, alongside France and the United Kingdom, falls into the "naughty" category after rejecting or delaying requests for military support.

They have shut down airspace and bases where the US has long operated, in some instances, drawing Trump's rebuke.

In contrast, Poland and Romania stand to benefit after backing US operations and hosting US forces, with Warsaw covering much of the cost of troop deployments and Bucharest expanding base access. Bulgaria too has been seen as friendly, and really the NATO 'eastern flank' remains indispensable as Washington still tries to navigate the Russia-Ukraine war.

Baltic states are meanwhile treated as "model allies" due to consistently high defense spending aligned with US targets. The proposal allows Washington to redirect troop deployments, joint exercises, and arms sales toward these compliant states.

But as for the 'punishment' side - also after spiraling relations with Denmark over the Greenland issue - it's still anyone's guess what the US administration might ultimately do.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 06:55

Judge Blocks Trump Admin's Move To Halt Wind, Solar Approvals

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Landlords in London and the south-east of the UK are openly advertising flats and rooms exclusively for Muslim tenants – a practice that directly breaches the Equality Act 2010. The listings, spotted on Facebook, Gumtree and Telegram, use phrases such as “only for Muslims”, “for two Muslim boys or two Muslim girls” and “Muslims preferred”.

One company, Roshan Properties, posted dozens of listings stating “prefer Muslim boy”, “one double room is available for Muslims” and “suitable for Punjabi boy”. Other ads appeal specifically to Punjabi and Gujarati speakers or people from Kerala and Haryana, while some job vacancies on the same platforms are restricted to men only. Gumtree listings include requests for “Hindus only” tenants, and at least one post specified: “The house should be alcohol and smoke free.”

All of these advertisements appear to break the law. Landlords and letting agents are not allowed to specify a preference for a particular religion or race when letting a property. The Equality Act prohibits discrimination based on religion or belief, race and other protected characteristics. Landlords who breach it can be taken to civil court by a prospective tenant.

🚨 A Telegraph investigation has uncovered rental listings in London stating that only Muslim tenants would be accepted@CamillaTominey and @MitchellDurdin explain what they found out ⤵️https://t.co/Nb7b41ELZJ pic.twitter.com/dhyPioZxni

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) April 22, 2026

The practice is widespread. Properties are being advertised across boroughs including Ilford, Newham, Barking, Dagenham, East Ham, Redbridge, Walthamstow, Upton Park, Harrow and Newbury Park on Facebook pages such as “Renting room in London for Muslims” and “Muslim rents”.

Facebook removed at least one offending page after being alerted by the Telegraph investigation. One listing even appeared on an official estate agency website with the “Muslims preferred” reference quietly removed.

There is a narrow partial exception only if the landlord is renting out a room in their own home and sharing facilities such as a kitchen or bathroom with the tenant. Otherwise, these ads are completely illegal.

Imagine if landlords were advertising “White English only” properties.

The outrage would be instantaneous. Headlines screaming “racism”, “far-right”, “hate” would dominate every broadcast. Equality bodies would swarm in. MPs would demand inquiries. Yet here we have explicit religious and ethnic preferences being posted openly, and the response is… crickets from the usual guardians of tolerance. This is two-tier Britain laid bare.

This development does not happen in a vacuum. It arrives at the exact moment the UK government is obsessed with stamping out “anti-Muslim hostility” while turning a blind eye to parallel societies forming in plain sight.

Just weeks ago we highlighted that ALL members of the government’s own “anti-Muslim hostility” advisory group have troubling links to Islamist organisations. The state is effectively letting the fox write the rules for the henhouse.

In March the government urged schools to snitch on children and staff for any perceived “anti-Muslim hostility” in an Orwellian crackdown that treats questioning Islam as thoughtcrime.

Meanwhile, an explosive study out of Germany found that almost one in two Muslims under 40 holds Islamist attitudes – a fact the authorities would rather ignore while they police “Islamophobia” with ever greater zeal.

The pattern is unmistakable. Mass immigration without assimilation has created no-go cultural enclaves where open religious discrimination is normalised, yet the state’s enforcement arm only swings one way: against native Britons who dare to notice or complain. Landlords feel emboldened enough to post “Muslim only” ads because they know the real risk is not prosecution – it’s being labelled “Islamophobic” for enforcing colour-blind rules.

This is not tolerance. It is the slow surrender of equal rights under the law. Britain’s elites have imported a parallel legal and cultural system and are now bending the native one to accommodate it. The Equality Act, once sold as protection for everyone, is revealed as a one-way street.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 06:30

Voting Rights Groups Sue To Stop DOJ From Collecting State Voter Lists

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Voting rights groups filed a lawsuit on April 21 seeking to block the Department of Justice (DOJ) from collecting, compiling, and analyzing state voter registration lists.

As of April 1, the DOJ has sued 30 states, including Washington, for failing to turn over voter rolls. The department has said the U.S. attorney general has congressional authority under the Civil Rights Act of 1960 to seek election records from states to check for improper voter registrations.

The groups filed a complaint on April 21, accusing the DOJ of seeking to use the sensitive data to build what they described as a “sprawling new voter surveillance and purging apparatus” without congressional authorization.

The complaint alleges that the department attempted to usurp states’ authority to oversee election administration and impose its own “secretive ’verification procedures’” to identify ineligible voters.

“Never before has a federal agency centralized this volume of Americans’ voting data in a single system of records,” it stated.

“And in doing so, DOJ has flouted statutory safeguards designed to ensure transparency and public participation in the federal government’s collection of Americans’ personal information.”

The lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia by advocacy group Common Cause and four individual members of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.

The data requested by the DOJ includes voters’ Social Security numbers, driver’s license numbers, dates of birth, home addresses, political party affiliations, and voter participation history, according to the filing.

The groups are seeking a court order requiring the DOJ to delete any voter rolls it has obtained from states and to bar the department from compiling or disclosing voter data.

Harmeet K. Dhillon, assistant attorney general of the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division, said on April 1 that the department has a duty to ensure state compliance with election laws.

Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon speaks during a news conference at the Justice Department in Washington on Sept. 29, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

“The Justice Department will continue to fulfill its oversight role dutifully, neutrally, and transparently wherever Americans vote in federal elections,” Dhillon said in a statement

“Many state election officials, however, are choosing to fight us in court rather than show their work. We will continue to verify that all States are carrying out critical election integrity legal duties.”

Dhillon added that the Civil Rights Act allows the attorney general to “demand the production, inspection, and analysis of statewide voter registration lists that can be cross-checked effectively.”

In an April 21 statement, Common Cause CEO Virginia Kase Solomon said the DOJ’s efforts to collect voter rolls amount to “a blatant, partisan power grab.”

“By attempting to interrogate and exploit voter data for political purposes, President Trump’s DOJ isn’t just threatening the privacy of every American—they are building a system designed to imprison the ballot box and silence millions of eligible voters,” Solomon said.

The Epoch Times has reached out to the DOJ for comment, but did not receive a response by publication time.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 06:11

Russia To Stop Kazakh Oil Flows To Germany Via Druzhba Pipeline

After several weeks of the main oil artery into Europe being halted - perhaps as Ukraine awaited the outcome of the Hungary election and the greenlighting of Europe's €90 billion loan to Kiev - Zelenskyy stated the Druzhba oil pipeline will be ready to ship Russian oil again. There is just one problem: Russia said it would halt halt Kazakh crude-oil shipments to Germany through the major Druzhba pipeline next month after reporting "technical issues." 

The move would deal a major blow to the PCK Schwedt refinery which supplies most of the fuel to Berlin, as well as jet fuel and heating oil for the city and the surrounding area. The cutoff will increase concerns over fuel availability just as war in the Middle East squeezes global energy supplies. It also ​adds to Germany's fuel supply concerns as the Iran war disrupts flows from the ⁠Gulf.

While Kazakhstan has received no official communication from Moscow, it got an informal notification, Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said Wednesday. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed the planned suspension, citing “current technical abilities,” according to Interfax.

Rosneft Deutschland confirmed it received information that flows will halt May 1, and said it’s assessing the potential impact on fuel supplies.

"At ⁠the same time, existing options will be utilised to ensure security of supply in Germany," it said.

It also said that the lack of supplies from Kazakhstan - which cover ​about 17% of Schwedt's needs - did not "ultimately jeopardise the security of supply of petroleum ​products in Germany."

The ⁠Federal Network Agency, the country's energy regulator, which acts as trustee of Rosneft Germany's activities, said there might still be regional pricing effects, adding it was closely coordinating with the company.

Kazakhstan's oil exports to Germany via Russia's Druzhba pipeline totalled 2.146 million metric tons, or around 43,000 barrels ​per day, last year, an increase of 44% from 2024, and 730,000 tons in the first quarter of 2026. In the first quarter of this year, Kazakhstan almost doubled crude flows to Germany to 730,000 tons, equivalent to almost 60,000 barrels a day.

“For the month of May, our transit through the Atyrau-Samara link and further on via the Druzhba pipeline toward the Schwedt refinery is zero,” Akkenzhenov said, according to his press service. The Energy minister said Kazakhstan can ship oil via Russia’s Baltic port of Ust-Luga and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia’s Black Sea coast, Interfax reported.

The Schwedt refinery, which is part-owned by Shell Plc and Eni SpA, already gets some crude via Poland’s Baltic port of Gdansk, and Polish pipeline operator PERN said Wednesday it’s ready to supply more if needed.

The halt of flows via Druzhba “does not ultimately jeopardize the security of supply for petroleum products in Germany, even if the PCK Schwedt refinery were to operate at reduced capacity,” Germany’s Economy Ministry said in a statement.

Supplies to Germany have been carried over a northern section of the pipeline, separate from the southern one that supplies Hungary ​and Slovakia and is about to resume operation after repairs following a Russian drone strike in January. Its southern branch, which serves Hungary and Slovakia, was shut earlier this year following damage from a Russian attack on a key pumping station. Druzhba is one of the longest oil pipeline networks ever built.

The Druzhba pipeline network originates in Russia and extends into Eastern and Central Europe

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said this week that repairs have now been completed, allowing the resumption of Russian flows along that section and paving the way for a much-needed €90 billion European Union loan so Ukrainian oligarchs can continue purchasing $500 million apartments in Monte Carlo.

The giant Druzhba pipeline was built in Soviet times to connect Russia’s oil network with refineries in central Europe. Germany cut ties with Moscow following 2022’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but Hungary and Slovakia are still reliant on Russian barrels to feed their plants.

In 2023, PCK Raffinerie reached an agreement to receive Kazakh oil via the Druzhba link for the Schwedt facility, replacing the Russian volumes. The refinery is still majority-owned by a local unit of Russia’s Rosneft PJSC, which is under the temporary trusteeship of the German government.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 05:45

UK High Court Backs Facial Recognition Rollout

Authored by Kit Knightly via OffGuardian.org,

Yesterday evening, the UK’s High Court ruled in favour of the Metropolitan Police in a legal challenge pertaining to the use of Live Facial Recognition Technology (LFR) across London’s transport network.

The case had been brought by Silkie Carlo of Big Brother Watch and Shaun Thompson, a youth worker who was previously misidentified by the technology, “over concerns it could be used arbitrarily or in a discriminatory way”.

Specifically, their lawyers argued that the current powers claimed by police governing the use of LFR would breach articles 8, 10 & 11 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR),

But the High Court judges said “nah”, and dismissed the challenge in favour of the police.

Shocking, right?

The establishment judges voted in favour of the establishment cops using technology to violate people’s rights in the name of protecting the establishment.

‘Cause for a second there we didn’t know which way that might go.

The failure of this legal challenge will open the door for a national rollout of FTR across high streets and transport hubs up and down the country.

There’s a good, technical breakdown of the legal proceedings here.

The claimants have already stated they plan to appeal the ruling.

Personally, I question the decision to base the case on protecting the innocent from “errors” in the LFR tech, rather than the question of the right to privacy as a general principle, but I’m not a lawyer…and they were probably going to lose whatever they said.

All in all, it’s just another example of the increasing normalization of authoritarianism in the UK.

The UK Parliament has just passed a law banning smoking for everyone born after January 1st 2009, meaning the legal age of smoking will increase by one year every year until the last smokers die off.

Some will say “that’s good, tobacco is poison”, but I will always argue that people have the right to live as wisely or foolishly as they want, as long as they are not hurting other people.

And I don’t trust any government empowered to protect me “for my own good.”

Oh, and the British schools are going to be made to ban smartphones, too.

It’s all getting very claustrophobic in the UK right now.

But, in totally unrelated news, black balaclavas are relatively inexpensive and can be purchased from most major clothing retailers.

Consider stocking up, until they’re illegal too.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 05:00

Nuclear Fuel Consortium To Provide Update On Approved Plans of Action

The Department of Energy's (DOE’s) Nuclear Fuel Defense Production Act (DPA) Consortium will be meeting on Thursday morning to “provide updates to the public on the progress of the Consortium and provide commentary on approved Plans of Action”.

Trump: "The US is going heavy into nuclear. I wasn't a fan of nuclear, but the safety progress they've made with nuclear is unbelievable. We are very much into the world of nuclear energy"

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 21, 2026

We've been covering the Nuclear Fuel Consortium's meetings since their initial get together in October. The consortium has met multiple times since then behind closed doors and has offered little insight as to what progress is being made to address the underlying issue of a lack of a domestic nuclear fuel chain in the United States, a lack which the following comprehensive chart shows in all its shocking glory.

The consortium is looking to address the shortages across the nuclear fuel supply chain from mining through milling, conversion, enrichment, deconversion, fabrication, recycling, and reprocessing. Parallel progress has been made in various forms over the past few months. 

The DOE launched the Fuel Line Pilot Program to kickstart the fabrication stage and recently put out an RFA for the recycling and reprocessing steps. As we've covered at length, the enrichment stage of the fuel chain has been addressed with almost $3 billion in awards from the DOE and over $4 billion from the Ex-Im Bank. 

If you can count the outstanding award program that's already been announced for the deconversion stage, the DOE has yet to address the mining, milling, and conversion stages.

We've documented this at length as well, as the US imports about 99% of the raw uranium ore for its commercial nuclear power fleet. Milling capacity is also at a minimum in the country, and conversion is just as limited with only one facility in operation in the States.

Today the DOJ Antitrust Division helped deliver on the critical need to expand energy infrastructure to help America win the AI race.

The Division has approved a framework to encourage industry and government collaboration to strengthen our nuclear fuel supply chain pursuant to…

— Antitrust Division (@JusticeATR) December 16, 2025

For reference, as we similarly provided in our coverage of the Department of Justice clearing the companies involved in the consortium of potential antitrust violations, here are the companies to keep an eye on Thursday:

• Uranium mining - UEC, EU, URG, and UUUU
• Uranium milling - UUUU, AEC, and UEC
• Uranium conversion - SOLS, SILXY, and UEC
• Uranium enrichment - LEU, NNE, SILXY, ASPI, and BWXT
• Fuel fabrication - CCJ, GEV, BWXT, OKLO, and ATI
• Recycling and reprocessing - OKLO, FLR, AMTM, and BWXT

UnoMasReactor Thu, 04/23/2026 - 04:15

Outrage After Von Der Leyen Groups Turkey Into Malign Axis With Russia, China

Turkey's government as well as some members of the European Parliament on Wednesday criticized recent remarks by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen suggesting Europe should not fall under the influence of Russia, Turkey, or China - calling the comments misleading and divisive.

Von der Leyen on Monday had casually grouped NATO member Turkey with China and Russia as malign influences on the continent, which contradicts the fact that the EU has relied on Turkey to play a key diplomatic role in the Ukraine war, as well as to absorb war refugees from the Middle East.

She had in the remarks declared that the EU "must succeed in completing the European continent so that it is not influenced by Russia, Turkey or China."

She then urged Europe to "think bigger and more geopolitically" when it comes to the continent getting away from cheap Russian energy and low-cast Chinese labor. She argued for greater European independence, also amid tensions with the Trump administration.

Lawmakers from the Left Group in the European Parliament, including Belgian members Rudi Kennes and Marc Botenga, took Turkey's side and slammed the remarks as "both inaccurate and very strange," emphasizing that Turkey is a NATO ally and maintains multifaceted relations with the European Union.

"Turkey is still officially a candidate country for EU membership," the officials noted. "These kinds of statements serve to split the world into 'us' and 'others,' as if there were some kind of purity test, and as if there were an intention to control the rest of the continent," Botenga said.

Botenga further warned that framing international relations as "friends versus enemies" poses significant risks for global stability. One source also underscored why Brussels was quick to try and do damage control in an EU presser:

This rapid clarification underscores Brussels’ awareness of the sensitivity. Turkey remains a vital partner on multiple fronts: migration management, Black Sea security, energy transit, and regional stability. Yet the episode reveals an underlying unease in EU circles about Turkey’s independent foreign policy, especially at a time when some voices within Ankara are openly exploring alternatives to traditional Western alignments.

There was indeed some fast backtracking on the word choice and rhetoric...

The EU attempts to backtrack from Von der Leyen’s statement which has described Turkish influence as adversarial on par with China and Russia pic.twitter.com/q54ID5cIkA

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) April 21, 2026

Still, the elephant in the room is that Turkey is very much an geopolitical Eurasian outlier - on the hand possessing the second largest army in NATO, and on the other often doing things contrary to NATO and EU interests, such as cozying up to Moscow on certain key issues.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 04:15

UK, France Lead 30-Nation Military Push To Reopen Strait Of Hormuz

Submitted by Michael Kern of OilPrice.com,

The UK is hosting (yesterday and today) a two-day multinational conference convening military planners from more than 30 countries as Britain and France renew efforts to re-open the Strait of Hormuz.

The two-day conference takes place just after U.S. President Donald Trump late on Tuesday extended the U.S.-Iran ceasefire until negotiations with Iran conclude “one way or the other.”

President Trump has also ordered that the U.S. blockade at the Strait of Hormuz remains in place.

Hopes of U.S.-Iran negotiations resuming as early as Wednesday were dashed after reports emerged that the trip of U.S. Vice President JD Vance to Pakistan, which hosted the previous round of failed talks, has been put on hold.

As of early Wednesday, there were no signs that the talks could resume soon.

The U.S. is keeping the naval blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has called a “siege” and a violation of the ceasefire.

The UK, which early this month hosted the first such meeting, said that this week’s conference is part of the UK and French leadership of a multinational coalition to reopen the Strait.

“The sessions will advance military plans to reopen the Strait, as soon as conditions permit, following a sustainable ceasefire agreement,” the UK government said in a statement.

“The task, today and tomorrow, is to translate the diplomatic consensus into a joint plan to safeguard freedom of navigation in the Strait and support a lasting ceasefire,” UK Defence Secretary John Healey said ahead of the conference.

“International trade, energy security and the stability of the global economy depend on freedom of navigation,” the UK official added.

“By building on our common purpose, strengthening multinational coordination and planning for effective collective action, we can help reopen the Strait, stabilise the global economy and protect our people.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 03:30

Curious Timing: Ukraine Declares Druzhba Pipeline Repaired After New Hungarian PM Elected

Ukraine announced Tuesday it completed repairs to the damaged Druzhba oil pipeline and stands ready to resume pumping Russian oil to Europe, a step Ukrainian officials expect will unlock a long-delayed EU aid package.

The timing is quite interesting and surely not coincidental given that Hungary's newly elected PM Péter Magyar and his victorious Tisza party are now in Budapest rapidly preparing for the transfer of power in Hungary. Magyar just accomplished a dramatic landslide defeat of Viktor Orbán last Sunday.

via AP

The pipeline, which carries crude to Hungary and Slovakia, has sat at the center of a monthslong ratcheting standoff, which served to further distance Hungary under Orban from the EU.

Hungary and Slovakia have accused the Zelensky government of intentionally delaying repairs to pressure them, after a last January alleged Russian strike on Druzhba damaged it, and halted oil flows to central Europe.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has just confirmed on social media, "Ukraine has completed repair work on the section of the oil pipeline that was damaged by a Russian strike," and hence: "The pipeline can resume operation."

"We must continue systematic sanctions pressure on Russia over this war and work on further diversifying energy supplies to Europe," Zelensky said further. "Europe must be independent from those who seek to destroy or weaken it," he added.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told reporters in Luxembourg that an agreement on the funds is expected within 24 hours: "I hope that everything goes well," she said. "Hopefully, all the obstacles are removed."

As for Magyar, his election win was heralded as a substantial victory for the global left wing, from EU globalists to Democrats in the US. Their assumption is that with Orbán's veto power out of play, they will be able to do they want in Ukraine and in Hungary.  However, the new Prime Minster may not be as cooperative as they initially believed.  

Magyar has stated that he will not try to block the €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine which Orbán originally vetoed, but he also stated that Hungary will not be contributing to such loans and that the government will not support any attempt to induct Ukraine into the EU. 

Slovak Economy Minister Denisa Sakova:

Ukraine has started pumping oil through the Druzhba pipeline, and supplies to Slovakia are expected to resume Thursday.

— Polymarket Intel (@PolymarketIntel) April 22, 2026

He also announced this week that he will not allow Hungary to join in the EU's "Migration Pact" and that he plans to further strengthen Hungary's borders. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 02:45

Newly Elected Hungarian PM Vows To Arrest Netanyahu If He Enters Country

Via The Cradle

Hungary’s incoming Prime Minister, Peter Magyar, stated on April earlier this week that his government will arrest Israeli Prime Minister and 'wanted war criminal' Benjamin Netanyahu if he visits, as Budapest reconsiders the previous government's plan to withdraw from the International Criminal Court (ICC).

“I made myself clear to the Israeli prime minister too, we are not re-entering … because my colleagues examined the matter, and we can still stop withdrawal until June 2,” Magyar said.

The prime minister-elect said his government intends to reverse Hungary’s exit from the ICC before it takes effect, after legal advisors determined the withdrawal process remains incomplete and can still be stopped once his administration takes office.

“The firm intention of the Tisza government is to halt this process and ensure that Hungary remains a member of the ICC,” he stated, adding, “If someone is a member of the ICC and a person who is wanted enters our country, then they must be taken into custody.”

The ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, in November 2024 over his role in leading Israel’s genocide against the Palestinian people in Gaza, with the warrant requiring member states to detain individuals sought by the court if they enter their territory.

Magyar’s remarks come despite having invited Netanyahu days earlier to attend a national commemoration later this year, raising questions over the apparent contradiction between the invitation and Hungary’s stated legal obligations.

“I don’t need to spell it out over the phone,” Magyar added, referring to a call last week in which he invited Netanyahu to attend an October ceremony commemorating the 70th anniversary of the Hungarian Uprising. He went on to say, “I assume that every head of state and government is familiar with these laws.”

Magyar’s position stands in direct contrast to that of his predecessor, former prime minister Viktor Orban, who refused to arrest Netanyahu during a 2025 visit and initiated Hungary’s withdrawal from the ICC while guaranteeing him immunity.

Earlier this year, Washington moved to shield Israeli officials from accountability, targeting those pursuing legal action over Gaza instead.

Washington imposed “terrorist-grade sanctions” on ICC judges and UN rapporteur Francesca Albanese, freezing assets and obstructing war crimes probes after she warned major US tech firms – including Alphabet, Amazon, Lockheed Martin, and Microsoft – that their support for Israeli military operations could amount to “gross violations of human rights” in Gaza.

UN officials warned that the sanctions are illegal and risk undermining the broader human rights system, as Washington moves to penalize those pursuing accountability while continuing to arm Israel.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 02:00

Oil Conundrum: Record Inventory Draws And Stable Crude Prices

Something strange is taking place in oil. Crude prices have been remarkably stable over the last week, with Brent mostly trading in the high 90s on mixed prospects for the resolution of the over 7-week conflict in the Persian Gulf, despite signs to the contrary: the second round of talks between the US and Iran has been postponed indefinitely following Iran’s decision not to participate; President Trump extended a ceasefire “until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other” and the US maintains its blockade of ships departing from or heading to Iranian ports.

So while the market is rejoicing and trading at daily record highs that all is well, the oil picture remains just as bad as it was when the war started almost two months ago.

According to Goldman, the combination of 1) a lower risk premium, 2) destocking in anticipation of expected Hormuz reopening, and 3) a moderation in spot buying, helps explain why futures crude prices, physical crude prices, and refined products prices have all moderated since the ceasefire despite still low Hormuz flows and extreme draws in global visible stocks.

And yet, global visible oil inventories are likely to reach record-low levels even in an optimistic scenario where Hormuz flows start to recover by the end of April.

Global visible oil inventories have been drawing at an average pace of 6.3mb/d in April so far, while Goldman's estimates of total global oil draws (including “invisible” refined products storage in non-OECD) show 10.9mb/d draws in April so far, the steepest monthly draws on record since 2017. This puts total estimated oil draws since the start of the war at 474mb.

As estimated oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain at 10% of normal or 2.0mb/d (4-day moving average) and as any recovery in flows will likely be gradual even following a complete reopening (given logistical constraints such as reversing shut ins, tanker voyage times and pipeline speed limits), declines in global oil inventories are likely to continue through May or beyond.

Extreme inventory draws also imply that rapidly tightening physical markets will continue to require much higher prices for immediate oil delivery rather than prices for delivery in a few months if market participants assume a high probability of a short-lived disruption. This backwardation is the key explanation of the perceived disconnect between nearby physical oil prices (i.e. prices for immediate delivery) and nearby futures oil pries (i.e. prices for June delivery).

The price of swapping Brent futures from “paper” to physical barrel delivery for the same delivery window (Exchange Futures for Physical, or  EFP) never went above $2/bbl over the last two months. However, the premium for dated Brent for an immediate delivery vs.nearby futures (Dated to Frontline, or DFL) moderated recently from nearly $40/bbl to a still very high $10 as the lag between the delivery periods for both contracts narrowed.

The shift from restocking and panic buying in March to destocking in April likely explains the moderation of prices in physical markets, according to Goldman, with some Asia refineries - especially in China - reportedly re-offering previously purchased crude.

But destocking isn’t sustainable since stocks - as we explained in "How Long Before The World Hits Crude Oil Operational Minimum" - have a natural lower bound, after which the main rebalancing mechanism in the absence of a supply recovery is demand reduction.

And herein lies the problem: the global oil-on-water buffer is approaching its depletion as non-sanctioned oil on water is close to its all-time lows, imports of Russian oil dipped below their 2025 average, and the US waiver on imports of Iranian oil on water expired without an extension.

Meanwhile, US oil exports surged to a record high 12.7mb/d, as outbound shipments suggest even higher exports in May. But some key Texas pipelines are already running at or above their operational capacity, suggesting that further increases in US exports are limited.

Putting all this together, Goldman warns that while the risks to its base case oil price forecast (which is close to current market pricing) are two-sided, there is significant net upside risks from longer Hormuz flows disruptions and potentially more persistent Mideast supply losses.

Meanwhile, as we reported previously, estimated oil flows from the Persian Gulf (including pipeline redirections) are at  9.3mb/d or 40% of normal...

... deteriorating by 2.6 mb/d which is the estimated oil exports from Iran since the US blockade started on April 12th to 0.3mb/d.

More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 00:05

From Gaza To BRICS: The Revolt Against The Dollar Order

Authored by Freddie Ponton via 21stCenturyWire.com,

Washington spent decades marketing the dollar as the natural language of world trade, a neutral vessel carrying commerce across borders. In practice, it became the armed currency of an imperial system that bombed states into ruin, sanctioned whole societies, and reserved the right to strangle any country that refused submission.

Unlike the usual churn of de-dollarization commentary, this report does not trade in fantasies of sudden dollar collapse or fairy tales about a BRICS currency descending to save the world overnight. It follows the machinery already taking shape beneath the noise, from national-currency trade and central bank swap lines to sovereign payment systems, digital settlement experiments, and BRICS-linked development finance, while keeping in view the fractures, delays, and contradictions that still run through the structure.

Just as important, this article refuses to separate economics from empire, tying the scramble for monetary sovereignty directly to sanctions, SWIFT weaponisation, the siege of Iran, and the wider coercive order that pushed much of the Global South to start building financial escape routes of its own.

The empire taught the world to flee

What matters here is not another recycled debate, but a grounded map of how a multipolar financial order is taking shape in practice, who is driving it, and why that shift now reaches far beyond the balance sheets of central banks.

That system is now producing its own backlash. Across BRICS and the wider Global South, de-dollarization is no longer a slogan tossed around at summits or a fantasy about a miracle currency waiting just beyond the horizon. It is taking material form through local-currency trade, sovereign payment systems, central bank swap lines, digital settlement projects, and development finance built to reduce exposure to Western-controlled capital.

The shift is not benign because it grows out of pressure, not theory. States that watched Russia cut from major Western financial channels, Iran suffocated under sanctions, and entire economies treated as hostages to US foreign policy have drawn the same conclusion. No nation can claim sovereignty if another power can freeze its trade, choke its banks, and police its payments.

That is why the war on Iran belongs at the heart of the story. The bombs may fall from the sky, but the same system works through banks, reserve currencies, settlement networks, and the threat of exclusion. Military aggression and monetary coercion are not separate instruments. They are two hands of the same order.

The scaffolding of a post-dollar order

A 2025 study on BRICS de-dollarization spearheaded by Podrugina Anastasia Viktorovna, an Associate Professor of the Department of World Economics, Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, heading the Group for Structural Issues in the World Economy at the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS), makes clear that what is emerging is not a dramatic monetary rupture, but a layered architecture. Its pillars are already visible in the expansion of national-currency trade, the spread of central-bank swap arrangements, the growth of sovereign payment and messaging systems, the exploration of digital-currency settlement, and the gradual strengthening of financial markets in local currencies. The same study is sober enough to stress that this framework contains many of the necessary parts, but is still not fully functional.

DOCUMENT: Formation of a de-dollarization architecture in the BRICS countries (Source: CWE Journal)

The strongest evidence begins with trade itself. By 2024, more than 90% of bilateral trade between Russia and China was already being settled in national currencies. Around 90% of direct payments between Russia and India were also taking place in national currencies. At the same time, Russia and Iran signed a strategic partnership agreement in 2025 that provided for a move toward national-currency settlements in mutual trade.

But even here, the limits of the transition are visible. The rapid growth of Russia-India trade has left large pools of so-called frozen rupees in Indian banks, exposing a basic problem of local-currency settlement. When trade is imbalanced, and a currency is not freely convertible, the alternative to the dollar can still trap value inside narrow channels. The architecture is advancing, but every such friction point is a reminder that monetary sovereignty needs more than political will; it also needs usable, liquid, and recyclable financial circuits. These are not symbolic gestures. They show what de-dollarization looks like once it leaves the conference hall and enters the bloodstream of real commerce. It means exporters and importers routing around the old imperial middleman. It means countries under siege refusing to let every sale, shipment, and invoice pass through a currency system controlled by powers openly hostile to their survival.

But trade settlement alone cannot carry a project this large. Without deeper financial markets in local currencies, even successful trade settlements will hit a ceiling. The architecture described in the first study depends not only on payment systems and swap lines, but on bond markets, development finance, and lending mechanisms able to keep capital circulating outside the dollar’s orbit. That is why the New Development Bank matters so much, and it is not just a lender, but a testing ground for the next stage of de-dollarization, increasing the share of its lending in BRICS currencies from 25% toward a planned 30% by 2026 while pointing toward a larger, still unfinished architecture of local-currency finance.

The same study shows that BRICS states are also trying to build protective liquidity through bilateral swap lines and through the Contingent Reserve Arrangement, created in 2014 with an initial capacity of $100 billion dollars. That mechanism offers a degree of collective financial defense, even if the study notes that access beyond the first 30% of a member’s limit still remains tied to IMF approval, a reminder that the old system has not yet been fully escaped.

Then there is the payment backbone itself. Russia has its own Financial Messaging System (SPFS), China has the Cross-border Interbank Payment System(CIPS), India has its Structured Financial Messaging System (SFMS),  and Iran has its own System for Electronic Payments Messaging (SEPAM). These systems matter because they reduce dependence on SWIFT and give targeted states more space to move when Western governments weaponize financial plumbing. By the end of 2024, SPFS had 584 users, and message volume had risen by 23%. CIPS had 168 direct participants and a network of more than 4,800 banks across 119 countries.

The picture grows even sharper in the realm of digital finance. The same research points to BRICS Bridge and BRICS Pay as important initiatives under discussion, yet it notes that both BRICS Bridge and BRICS Pay remain under active development in 2026, with momentum increasing, but there is still no clearly verified full public launch that can be treated as a settled fact from the strongest available sources. That does not weaken the case. It tells the truth. The alternative order is real, but it is still being assembled piece by piece.

That incompleteness matters. For instance, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) already offers a non-Western proof that regional payment integration can move beyond aspiration into institution, with denser swap arrangements, broader payment connectivity, and more coordinated settlement frameworks than BRICS has yet achieved. The lesson is not that BRICS is failing, but that it remains at an earlier stage of construction, still assembling what others have already begun to normalize.

The next battlefield will not be fought only through reserves and trade invoices. It will also be fought through code. Beyond BRICS Bridge and the still-unfinished payment initiatives already on the table lies a wider digital frontier of interoperable systems, domestic payment integration, programmable money, and new clearing architectures that could one day move value across borders with far less dependence on the dollarized banking chain, and central bank digital currency (CBDCs) will likely play a central role in that shift. If that frontier matures, the most important break with the old order may not arrive as a single new currency at all, but as a mesh of digital rails that quietly makes the old monopolies less necessary. A 2024 working Paper authored by Mayer Jörg, a Senior Economic Affairs Officer in the Division on Globalisation and Development Strategies of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), titled “De-dollarization: The global payment infrastructure and wholesale central bank digital currencies”, provides with great accuracy, a solid explanation of how CBDCs and multi-CBDC payment architecture could move cross-border settlements away from the dollar-dependent correspondent banking chain and toward interoperable digital systems.

Sanctions turned the dollar into a warning

A 2026 study on greater BRICS cooperation, authored by Yang Lyu, an Associate Research Professor at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Studies, Beijing, P.R. China, explains why this process has accelerated. Countries are not stepping back from the dollar because they suddenly discovered an academic preference for monetary diversity.

They are moving in the same direction for different reasons, and that is why the process advances with both momentum and friction. Russia was pushed forward by sanctions warfare, China by long-term monetary strategy, and others by the simpler need to lower transaction costs, hedge political risk, and widen room for manoeuvre without fully rupturing with the old order. BRICS is therefore advancing not as a perfectly unified bloc, but as a coalition converging on the same infrastructure from very different political starting points.

The study argues that the weaponization of the dollar and of Western payment infrastructure has steadily eroded trust in both. It links that erosion to sanctions, financial blockades, SWIFT exclusion, and the use of monetary dominance as a geopolitical bludgeon. By the end of 2024, it notes, the dollar’s share of global foreign-exchange reserves had fallen below 58%, while its share in cross-border payments had dropped to 42.6%.

At the same time, more than 25% of intra-BRICS trade was already being settled in local currencies by the end of 2024. That does not mean the dollar has been dethroned. It means the world has started to hedge against it, and it has done so for reasons rooted in fear, survival, and bitter experience.

Iran stands as one of the clearest examples. The 2026 study places the blockade of Iran alongside sanctions on Russia, Venezuela, and Cuba as part of the pattern that pushed countries to seek alternatives to dollar-based finance. For states across the Global South, the lesson is no longer theoretical. A reserve currency controlled by an aggressive empire is not simply a medium of exchange. It is a pressure point waiting to be used.

DOCUMENT: Innovating the global payment system through greater BRICS cooperation (Source: Springer)

This is why the de-dollarization debate is often misunderstood in the West. For much of the world, the issue is not whether the dollar remains liquid, deep, and still globally dominant. The issue is whether a country can import food, export energy, finance development, and survive political confrontation without placing its throat inside the same imperial fist.

The same study makes another crucial point. The most advanced path is not a common BRICS currency. That remains the boldest and least immediately feasible option. The most practical path is local-currency settlement, while the most forward-looking one is cross-border digital payment. The deeper story, then, lies not in branding but in infrastructure.

Greater BRICS changes the balance of power

This story becomes even more consequential once BRICS expansion enters the frame.

That expansion matters for another reason as well. BRICS is gaining force not only because it resists Western domination, but because it offers many states in the Global South a more usable political proposition, which offers cooperation without the ritual humiliation of Western conditionality, financing without open submission, and a wider stage on which to pursue sovereignty without formally entering an anti-Western military bloc. That is why its appeal keeps spreading beyond the countries already inside it. For many governments, BRICS is no longer simply an act of defiance. It is a practical project of political and economic reorientation.

The 2026 study featured above argues that the bloc’s enlargement in 2023 and the admission of partner countries in 2024 transformed it from a grouping of major emerging economies into a much broader platform for the Global South.

That expansion changed the scale of the project. According to the study, BRICS economies accounted for more than 40% of global output measured in current dollars and 23% of global goods exports, while holding roughly half of the world’s gold and currency reserves. These data point to something material and dangerous from the standpoint of Washington, because a de-dollarizing bloc with this kind of weight does not rest on rhetoric alone, but also on oil, food, mineral reserves, industrial capacity, maritime corridors, overland routes, and enormous demographic scale.

Iran matters here not as an isolated victim of aggression but as part of a larger geography of resistance. The expanded BRICS formation brings together states with leverage in energy, agriculture, transport, minerals, and strategic chokepoints. It gives the search for financial sovereignty a material foundation that is far harder to crush than any single sanctioned state standing alone.

The study also argues that expansion improves the conditions for upgrading core BRICS financial mechanisms such as the New Development Bank, the Contingent Reserve Arrangement, and the bloc’s emerging payment architecture. More members mean more resources, broader expertise, and a greater ability to dilute internal resistance to reform. In plain language, the wider the bloc becomes, the more credible its financial alternatives become.

And that is precisely what makes the process dangerous from Washington’s point of view. Expanded BRICS does not grow in a straight line. It compounds, with each new member, corridor, reserve pool, and payment channel creating fresh advantages that deepen cooperation further and make the whole architecture harder to unwind. The threat is not that BRICS has already replaced the old order. It is that a self-reinforcing cycle has begun, and every successful step gives the next one more weight, more legitimacy, and more staying power.

Corridors need detente

What comes next is not just a struggle over currencies, but over routes. The same states now trying to reduce their exposure to dollar coercion are also trying to build the physical geography of a different order, and that includes ports, rail lines, energy corridors, digital cables, and payment rails that can tie Asia, the Gulf, and Europe together on terms less vulnerable to Western choke points.

That is why detente matters. A corridor cannot function under permanent bombardment, and no Gulf state can turn geography into lasting power while missiles, sanctions, and military escalation keep the region in a state of managed instability.

This is where Saudi Arabia and the UAE need to be understood clearly. They are not confused actors drifting between camps. They are conflicted hinge powers, still tied to Washington’s security architecture, yet increasingly drawn toward the commercial, financial, and geopolitical opportunities opened by BRICS, China, India, and the wider push for non-dollarized trade. Their long-term value lies not in choosing permanent confrontation, but in becoming indispensable connectors between energy producers, capital flows, industrial zones, and the trade arteries running east to west and south to north.

That is also why the politics of detente may prove more decisive than any summit declaration. The faster these corridors become operational outside the chokehold of dollar hegemony, the stronger the material constituency for stability becomes, because every new port link, customs platform, payment interface, logistics hub, and industrial corridor begins to depend on predictability rather than war. In that sense, de-dollarization is not only a monetary process. It is also a question of whether the real economy can be pulled into the same orbit. No payment system can carry history on its own if trade, investment, logistics, energy, agriculture, and industrial cooperation remain too thin to bear its weight.

Financial sovereignty without deeper real-economy integration stays fragile, because money may find a new route while the material life beneath it still depends on supply chains, markets, and chokepoints shaped by the old order. It is a regional stabilization project in embryo, one that gives Gulf capitals a direct economic stake in containing escalation and keeping the routes open.

This is also where the Israeli question becomes harder to ignore.

The original east-to-west corridor vision encapsulated in the early India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor concept (IMEC), and its initial public framing, placed the Gulf at the center and imagined Israel as the Mediterranean outlet for trade moving onward to Europe. On paper, that gave Israel an obvious strategic pitch, where it can market itself as the indispensable logistical hinge between Asia and the Mediterranean. But politics has a way of wrecking maps. Israel’s deepening unpopularity, especially across the Global South, has raised the political cost of any corridor architecture that asks Arab, Asian, and African states to anchor their commercial future to an Israeli hub as though legitimacy were irrelevant.

That does not mean such projects disappear overnight. It means they enter a harsher political climate, where many states will think twice before tying their commercial future to a route entangled with a deeply discredited regional order. In the current climate, Israel will find it hard, perhaps impossible, to market its way out of the Gaza genocide or the devastation left in the wake of its military expansion into Lebanon and Syria. The more unstable and unpopular Israel becomes, the more attractive it will be for Gulf, Asian, and BRICS-linked actors to diversify outlets, multiply routes, and build a wider corridor ecosystem rather than accept any single state as the mandatory gate between East and West. In that sense, the battle over the future is no longer only about who controls the currency of trade, but it is also about who can offer the safest, most legitimate, and most politically sustainable roads along which that trade will move.

The break is unfinished, but it is real

None of this means BRICS has already built a complete replacement for the dollar. The research does not claim that, and the facts would not support it. Several initiatives remain incomplete, some currencies are far more usable internationally than others, and the old order still retains enormous structural advantages in liquidity, habit, and market depth.

But that is not the real measure of what is happening. The real measure is whether a parallel architecture exists in recognizable form, amd it certainly does. Local-currency trade is rising, while sovereign messaging systems are expanding, and swap lines and reserve arrangements are being tested. Digital settlement experiments are clearly moving forward, and the New Development Bank is increasing local-currency lending whilst attempting to reduce borrowers’ exposure to dollar risk.

That is what makes the old imperial center nervous. Endless war did not preserve unipolar power. It only exposed its violence. As for sanctions, they did not restore faith in the dollar order; instead, they taught countries to search for exits. The war on Iran, like the wars that came before it, has only sharpened the lesson.

What is being born will not arrive all at once. It will not come wrapped in a single currency note or announced by a single triumphant headline. It is far more likely that it will arrive through contracts, clearing mechanisms, settlement systems, reserve pools, and political will. The world Washington tried to discipline through force is building routes around that discipline. And this time, the escape route is being built in plain sight, for everyone to recognize.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 23:50

US Drains Half Its Patriot Arsenal During Iran War, New Military Study Finds

The seven-week Iran war, currently on pause due to an extended ceasefire, has raised alarm in Washington over the question of how fast the US has burned through its missile interceptor stockpile.

The two-week ceasefire, having just been extended, provided an opportunity for both sides to restock and regroup. A fresh analysis from the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) finds the US military tore through nearly half its Patriot interceptor inventory while heavily draining multiple other critical missile stockpiles.

US Army file image

According to CSIS, the Pentagon burned through almost 50% of its Patriot missiles, more than half of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems - designed to counter short, medium, and intermediate-range threats - and over 45% of its Precision Strike Missiles (PrSMs) during the Iran air and missile campaign.

And the hangover won't be short given that replenishing key munitions - including Tomahawks and JASSMs - back to levels before Trump's latest war of choice in the Middle East could take anywhere from one to four years.

Below is a key line from the fresh CSIS report:

The Trump administration recently announced a series of agreements with industry to boost production and put missile inventories on a “wartime footing.” The large quantities of munitions in the president’s FY 2027 budget request further underscore the urgency of rebuilding and expanding the inventory. Near-term deliveries, however, are relatively low because of small orders in the past. Even if Congress appropriates the requested FY 2027 funds, it will take years for these missiles to be delivered.

Of course, some of these systems were already removed from the Asia-Pacific area, where the US military has an eye on China. These systems are of course central to any future showdown in the Western Pacific.

"Even before the Iran war, stockpiles were deemed insufficient for a peer competitor fight. That shortfall is now even more acute and building stockpiles to levels adequate for a war with China will take additional time," the CSIS report's authors wrote.

However, the Pentagon's line has consistently been that the Untied States military remains the  most "powerful in the world and has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President’s choosing."

The reality is that in the opening days of Operation Epic Fury, the US seemed underprepared for the ferocity of the Iranian response. At least 13 American bases in the region were hit and damaged, to the point that US forces across the region had to be moved back, and energy sites across the Gulf were pummeled and suffered billions of dollars in damage.

US interceptors worked in overdrive drying to protect sensitive Gulf facilities and bases, as dozens of inbound Iranian drones and missiles were a daily thing back in March into early April before the ceasefire took effect.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 23:25