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US Futures Resume Rally As Iran Optimism Returns

The optimism that helped list the S&P on 11 of the prior 12 days, and the Nasdaq on 13 consecutive days until Monday's modest pullback, is back - because one can apparently draw the same exact event for 3 weeks now - and sending US equity futures higher again on signs that Iran will attend talks with the US, while the US president said it’s “highly unlikely” that he’d extend the truce. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%, rebounding from Monday’s decline, and supposed by solid earnings, the AI narrative and positioning even as the situation in the Middle East remains unresolved. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5% with most Mag 7 names higher: AMZN +2.8%, META +0.6%, AAPL -0.4%. Apple announced its new CEO after yesterday’s close (hardware chief John Ternus will become the CEO effective September 1st); AMZN announced it will invest another $25bn in Anthropic with Anthropic committing to spending more than $100bn over the next 10yr on AWS. 10Y yields added 1bps to 4.26%. Commodities are mostly lower: Copper -0.5%, Silver -1.0%, WTI crude was flat at $87.60 per barrel, reversing a modest loss. Retail sales and Warsh’s confirmation hearing will be in focus later.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher after the iPhone maker said hardware chief John Ternus will be its next CEO, with current leader Tim Cook moving to the role of executive chairman. AMZN rises 3% after the cloud-computing and e-commerce giant said it is investing an additional $5 billion in Anthropic and may inject $20 billion more over time (META +0.5%, Tesla (TSLA) +0.7%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.3%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.4%, Nvidia (NVDA) +0.2%).

• 3M Co. (MMM) slips 2% after the maker of Post-it notes, protective equipment and auto maintenance products reported adjusted organic growth that missed estimates.
• Amazon suppliers rise on Amazon’s investment in Anthropic. Marvell Technology (MRVL) +2%, Credo Technology (CRDO) +5% and Astera Labs (ALAB) +8%.
• Alaska Air (ALK) slips 1.2% after the carrier announced it will be suspending full-year guidance due to higher fuel costs. The company also expects a higher adjusted loss-per-share in the second quarter than what Wall Street is estimating.
• Avis Budget (CAR) rises 7% and is set to extend its short squeeze for a fourth consecutive session.
• Tractor Supply (TSCO) falls 5% after the retailer reported comparable sales for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• UnitedHealth (UNH) climbs 7% after reporting first quarter profit that blew past Wall Street expectations. The company also boosted its outlook for the year, a sign of the health conglomerate’s progress toward rebuilding credibility with investors after a collapse a year ago.

In corporate news, Apple CEO Tim Cook will hand the reins to hardware boss John Ternus later this year. Ternus will face challenges even as he maintains Apple’s device empire — needing to take chances, enter new product categories and find the company’s footing in AI. Elsewhere in tech, Amazon is investing an additional $5 billion in Anthropic and may inject $20 billion more over time, a deal that strengthens ties in in an increasingly competitive AI race. The deal was struck at a valuation of $350 billion, not including the new funding, Anthropic said.

Sentiment rose overnight even though Trump signaled that a ceasefire extension is unlikely, while Iran hasn’t confirmed who, if anyone, will travel to the Pakistani capital for peace talks.  Strategists continue to look outside of geopolitics, with JPMorgan’s Dubravko Lakos-Bujas raising his year-end S&P 500 price target to 7,600 on the back of strong tech and AI earnings. But for Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, the market is showing signs of “irrational exuberance 2.0,” with the strength of the recent equity rally defying logic and largely based on the belief in a “POTUS Put.”

The US is waiting to see if Iran will take part in a second round of ceasefire talks before the truce expires on Wednesday. President Donald Trump said his vice president, JD Vance, was ready to leave for negotiations in Pakistan. Tehran has yet to confirm its attendance.

Speaking to Bloomberg News in a phone interview on Monday, Trump said he would not be “rushed into making a bad deal” and that the US naval blockade on Iranian ports would stay in place until an agreement is reached. Additionally, the president said a ceasefire extension beyond late Wednesday was unlikely.

“Traders will understandably be focused on events in Pakistan, with talks expected to resume ahead of tomorrow’s deadline,” said Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets.

Solid early earnings are also helping. The Citi US earnings revisions index has moved back into positive territory after two negative weekly prints. Of the 49 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts’ forecasts, while 12% have missed.

The Federal Reserve’s future is also on the minds of traders, as Kevin Warsh for his confirmation hearing. Warsh is Trump’s pick to replace the central bank’s current chair, Jerome Powell. It could be one of the most contentious such hearings in many decades. Warsh, in prepared remarks, vowed to protect the Fed’s independence if he were confirmed to the role.

“We think that the appointment of Kevin Warsh is unlikely to significantly adjust the balance of the Federal Open Market Committee – or, in any case, not to the extent that it would lead to any non-key rate cuts that are not justified by the US economic situation and the institution’s mandate,” CIC economists including Adrien Régnier-Laurent wrote in a note.

Earnings season rolled on, with UnitedHealth Group Inc. jumping 7.4% during premarket trading after the health insurer boosted its profit forecast. General Electric Co. gained 1.3% after the jet-engine manufacturer’s first-quarter profit came ahead of Wall Street’s expectations. 

Europe's The Stoxx 600 is higher by 0.3% with IT near the top of the leaderboard. Insurance and utilities outperformed, while food and beverage names fell, led by Royal Unibrew which said its partnership deal with PepsiCo in several nations will expire at the end of 2028.  Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

• British Land shares rise as much as 3.7% as the commercial property group upgrades earnings guidance.
• BF shares rise as much as 12% to a record high after the Italian agriculture services company received a voluntary takeover offer from Arum and Dompè Holding at a significant premium to Monday’s close.
• THG shares rise as much as 9.8% after the online retailer said it delivered its best 1Q revenue growth since 2021, as both the Beauty and Nutrition arms reported positive topline momentum.
• J D Wetherspoon gains as much as 5.9% as Peel Hunt upgrades to add from hold following recent share-price weakness, noting the pub operator has been trading at an EV/Ebitda close to all-time lows.
• Beiersdorf falls as much as 3.6% after the German personal care products group and Nivea owner reported first-quarter earnings which fell short of expectations.
• AB Foods shares drop as much as 7.1%, the most since January, after the company downgraded expectations for its Sugar business and said its clothing arm Primark experienced softer trading in April as the Middle East conflict hit consumer confidence.
• Royal Unibrew shares plunge as much as 23% after the Danish brewer said its partnership with PepsiCo in Denmark, Finland and the Baltic states will end when the current license agreements expire at the end of 2028.
• Crest Nicholson shares tumble as much as 45% to a record low as the UK homebuilder cuts full-year earnings guidance due to economic uncertainty and softening land sales that have caused it to prioritize cash preservation.
• Fagerhult falls as much as 20% after the Swedish lights and lighting systems manufacturer said first-quarter earnings would be weaker than it expected due to “continued general market uncertainty, largely related to the geopolitical unrest in the Middle East.”
• Barco drops as much as 10% as the consumer electronics firm warned that its full-year guidance is in doubt if current macro‑economic conditions and geopolitical tensions persist.
• Retail Estates shares decline as much as 5.2% after being downgraded at KBC Securities following its move to enter the French market. Analysts said it makes strategic sense, but warn that financing the expansion will erode earnings per share growth.
• Avanza shares fall as much as 7.8% after the Swedish retail trading platform reported first-quarter results that analysts viewed as disappointing.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, as optimism over a potential resumption of negotiations ahead of a looming Middle East ceasefire deadline lifted sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.9% to the highest in seven weeks. Technology megacaps including TSMC and SK Hynix were among the top contributors to the gauge’s gains. South Korea’s Kospi index climbed to a record, powered by chipmakers as the artificial intelligence trade regained momentum.  Fresh signals that Iran and the US are continuing to work on a deal to end the war buoyed risk-on sentiment across Asia even though President Donald Trump said he’s unlikely to extend the two-week ceasefire with Iran. Investors are also starting to refocus on fundamentals, reverting to familiar themes such as AI-related trades. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has lagged the S&P 500 gauge since the war began given the higher exposure of Asian economies to oil imports from the Middle East. Still, the gap has narrowed as markets price in a de-escalation of the conflict. The Asian benchmark has risen 13% so far this year, versus 3.9% jump in its US peer.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar index is higher by 0.2% with the greenback higher versus all major peers with the exception of Kiwi dollar, which has been boosted by firmer inflation data.

In rates, bonds edged lower into the early US session led by the front-end of the curve where 2-year yields are up almost 2bp on the day but price action has been muted with oil futures edging lower. Treasuries see subtle bear flattening move with long-end yields broadly unchanged on the day and front-end cheaper by around 2bp, tightening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 1bp and 1.2bp on the day. US 10-year yields trade around 4.26% with bunds outperforming by 1bp on the sector, gilts trading broadly in line. UK gilts reversed a brief wobble after a top UK official said he felt pressure from the government to approve Peter Mandelson’s appointment.  Session focus includes Kevin Warsh scheduled to appear before the Senate Banking Committee, while data includes March retail sales. 

In commodities, brent crude futures are down around 0.8% and back below $95/bbl despite US President Trump’s threat to not extend the current truce with Iran. Precious metals are on the backfoot with spot gold and silver down 0.8% and 0.9% respectively.  

Today's US economic data calendar slate includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), April Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, March retail sales (8:30am), February business inventories, March pending home sales (10am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
• DAX +0.6%
• CAC 40 +0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.25%
• VIX +0.2 points at 19.08
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1194.04
• euro -0.2% at $1.1759
• WTI crude -1.8% at $88.04/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Iran has yet to confirm its participation in new peace talks, underscoring uncertainty around the negotiations. Donald Trump said he’s “highly unlikely” to extend the truce and JD Vance is expected to travel to Islamabad as soon as tonight. BBG
• In private, Iranian officials say they’re preparing to resume peace talks with the US. In public, however, they are far more wary, even pugnacious at times as they blame the White House for putting diplomacy at risk. NYT
• The United States has expressed confidence that peace talks with Iran will go ahead in Pakistan and a senior Iranian official said Tehran was considering joining, but significant uncertainty remained on Tuesday as the end of a ceasefire ‌loomed. RTRS
• Kevin Warsh heads to Capitol Hill for his Fed chair confirmation hearing, where he’ll face scrutiny from lawmakers. In prepared remarks, he pledged to protect the central bank’s independence and steer clear of “distractions” in policymaking. BBG
• China’s alumina imports surged to a two-year high in March as Middle East disruptions rerouted cargoes, boosting aluminum output and margins. Copper production rose to a record 1.33 million tons. BBG
• Indonesian stocks slid after MSCI extended the review period to June as it assesses the impact of recent regulatory reforms. BBG
• UK businesses stepped up job cuts in March. The number of employees on payrolls fell by 11,000 — the biggest drop since November — in a sign that the Iran war is causing caution in the labor market. BBG
• One of the US’s top insurance regulators has warned that a “transformation” in the sector has pushed insurers into riskier private investments that are “less appropriate” for retirees. FT
• Amazon will invest another $5 billion in Anthropic at a $350 billion valuation, and may inject $20 billion more over time. The startup plans to spend over $100 billion on Amazon’s cloud and chips over the next decade. BBG

Iran War Latest

• No Iranian delegation, primary or secondary, have travelled to Islamabad and that reported about the departure of such officials and claims about meeting times were inaccurate, IRIB reported. The earlier reports by Al Jazeera, citing a Pakistani diplomatic source, suggested that the Iranian preliminary delegation and US delegation are present in Islamabad.
• "A Pakistani official source told Al Arabiya: The US and Iranian delegations will arrive in Islamabad today at the same time"; "The second round of negotiations will be held as scheduled". "We currently have no information about extending the ceasefire between America and Iran".
• US VP Vance is to travel to Pakistan on Tuesday for Iran talks, according to sources cited by Axios.
• US-Iran negotiations may begin Wednesday morning in Islamabad, while US is said to believe that there is a split within the Iranian negotiating team, according to Al Arabiya citing CNN network sources.
• Pakistan media sources note expectations US and Iran will reach an agreement by Wednesday, according to Al Arabiya.
• Iranian official tells Washington Post that they have largely agreed on the broad outlines of the agreement, according to Al Arabiya.
• Pakistan asked the US and Iran to extend the truce for two more weeks, while Pakistani media sources say PM Sharif may announce a ceasefire extension on Tuesday, according to Al Arabiya.
• Journalist Elster writes "Pakistani source told Reuters that Trump may attend talks with Iran in person or remotely if an agreement is reached".
• White House Press Secretary Leavitt said US has never been so close to making a good deal with Iran, adds Trump still has options if there is no deal with Iran.
• Iranian oil tanker entered Iran's territorial waters, despite the US blockade, with an escort from the Iranian navy, Al-Mayadeen reported.
• Iran's Judiciary head said it is "very possible" that negotiations will not lead to a result, in that scenario Iran will act again and there will be a response to the US' interception of a Iranian ship.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned the seizure of Iranian cargo ship Touska by US forces and called for the “immediate release of the Iranian vessel, its sailors, crew and their families”, according to CNN.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said by applying the blockade and violating the ceasefire, Trump wants to turn this negotiation table into a table of surrender or to justify a renewed war. We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the last two weeks, we have prepared to face new cards on the battlefield.
• Israel-Lebanon ceasefire violated, ISNA reported, citing sources.
• Israeli army reportedly withdrew part of its forces south of Lebanon following the start of the ceasefire, according to sources cited by Haaretz.
• UN agency is reportedly preparing evacuation plan from Strait of Hormuz for hundreds of ships, Bloomberg reported.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed with the region cautious amid uncertainty regarding US-Iran talks ahead of the ceasefire expiry, as there were numerous conflicting reports on when they will occur and if Iran will take part. Nonetheless, the latest relevant headlines provide some optimism, with sources stating that the US and Iran are expected to reach an agreement by Wednesday and that Pakistan's PM is to ask for a two-week ceasefire extension, while there remains no official confirmation from Tehran about attending talks. ASX 200 trades subdued with the index dragged lower by weakness in health care, energy, mining and financials, while a quarterly production update from Rio Tinto failed to meaningfully inspire. Nikkei 225 rallied to back above the 59,000 level with upside facilitated by tech strength and expectations for the BoJ to refrain from hiking rates at next week's meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were contained amid earnings releases and the mixed performance in the tech sector, while markets failed to benefit from the NDRC head's pledge that officials will help actively increase effective domestic demand and will further enhance supply chain resilience.

Top Asian News

• New Zealand Inflation Rate QoQ (Q1) Q/Q 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.6%).
• New Zealand Inflation Rate YoY (Q1) Y/Y 3.1% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 3.1%, Low. 2.8%, High. 3.1%)
• New Zealand RBNZ Sectoral Factor Model Inflation Index YY (Q1) 2.7% (Prev. 2.8%).
• Taiwan Export Orders (Mar) Y/Y 65.9% vs exp. 44.1% (prev. 23.8%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) are modestly rebounding from Monday’s losses, however the CAC 40 and SMI are failing to bounce. The DAX 40 is the outperformer, with most of the index in the green but cautiously awaiting SAP earnings on Thursday. European sectors are broadly gaining. Technology and Utilities top the pile while Food, Beverage & Tobacco lags as AB Foods weighs on the sector. Despite reaffirming its FY outlook, failure to show revenue growth and the announcement of the demerger of Primark from the food business have hit the Co.’s shares.

Top European News

• Former UK Foreign Ministry Official Olly Robbins said the Cabinet Office suggested Peter Mandelson not be vetted at all; Foreign Office overruled it.
• Former UK Foreign Ministry Official Olly Robbins said there was a "dismissive attitude" from Number Ten towards Mandelson's vetting as they wanted to get him out to Washington as quickly as possible. Foreign Office was under constant pressure from the PM's office to get Peter Mandelson cleared to become US ambassador.
• French PM Lecornu has asked ministers to reduce spending by an extra EUR 4bln, AFP reported.

Trade/Tariffs

• USTR Greer tells Mexican firms that auto and steel tariffs will not go down to zero, Reuters reports citing sources.
• USTR Greer met with Mexico's President Sheinbaum on Monday ahead of North America trade pact review.
• US Trade Representative said US and Mexico are to launch USMCA talks on the week of May 25th and they are to be held in Mexico City.
• US Interior Secretary Bergum said Chinese solar panels are a national security issue.

FX

• Despite elements of risk in other assets, FX displays a risk-off bias today, with all G10 currencies bar NZD lower against the greenback.
• DXY trades higher by 0.2%. Though there is no clear driver, the index bounced off a session low of 98.10, continuing a rebound from Monday's 98.00. This upside came around news that an Iranian delegation had not departed for Islamabad, contrasting earlier reporting. Technicals also likely at play here, around this news, USD/JPY surpassed the 159.00 mark, crude bounced, but hit resistance at USD 95.00/bbl - explaining why the haven USD and energy benchmarks are not in tandem this morning.
• GBP is weaker against the Buck and EUR, participants are focusing on domestic political updates, geopolitics and a hawkish Labour force survey this morning. On politics, former UK Foreign Ministry Official Robbins essentially denied the PM's claims of due process in relation to Mandelson's appointment. This leaves the PM in a somewhat weaker position - and as such, we saw a c. 15pip move in EUR/GBP, which has since paired. The data set for Feb, saw hotter-than-expected wage metrics and a much lower-than-expected unemployment rate. The series will be welcomed by policymakers on Threadneedle/Downing Street, signalling each were in a comfortable position pre-Middle East war & energy shock. ING writes "the details reveal the drop in the jobless rate is pretty much solely down to a rise in “economic inactivity” – that is, people neither in work nor actively seeking it." MUFG post-data wrote "We are currently forecasting only one rate hike from the BoE." GBP/USD saw an initial kneejerk higher, which since reversed amid the ongoing Robbins hearing.
• NZD leads the G10 space after the latest inflation data spurred bets for rate hikes. Q1 metrics revealed that inflation surprisingly remained elevated above the RBNZ's 1-3% target. Markets are back to pricing in 81bps of tightening by year-end, similar to levels seen post-Bremen comments, though more hawkish than Monday.

Central Banks

• BoJ is reportedly set to stay on hold in April but keep a hawkish stance, Bloomberg reports citing sources. This adds to further reports from the Nikkei that the BoJ is to hold rates steady in April and to make a decision in June after assessing the situation in the Middle East.
• BoJ Financial System Report: Japan’s financial system has been maintaining stability on the whole; Japanese banks have sufficient capital bases and stable funding bases to withstand various stress situations.
• ECB's de Guindos said high market valuations, private credit and fiscal policy are among the financial stability risks; monetary policy must be prudent, should keep a cool head.
• CNB Vice-Governor Zamrazilova tells Czech radio that inflation this year can be expected to be just under 3%.
• BoK's new Governor Shin said to seek inflation stability and financial stability through cautious and flexible monetary policy operations.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are mixed, with US and UK paper in the red, whilst Bunds remain afloat. Ultimately, focus has been on the volatile geopolitical environment, with attention on developments surrounding US-Iran second round talks. Initially, there were reports via a Pakistani source which suggested that the US-Iran delegation teams had arrived in Islamabad, however, Iranian State TV pushed back on these claims calling them “baseless” – they said that Iran “has not yet sent a delegation”. Markets will await how this unfolds, ahead of the expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire on Wednesday.
• USTs are lower by around 3 ticks and currently within a 111-17 to 111-22+ range. Ultimately moving at the whim of energy price fluctuations, with a recent bout of pressure in the benchmark after the Iranian side pushed back on reports that a delegation had arrived in Pakistan. Geopols aside, US March retail sales are the main focus (exp. 1.4% M/M, prev. 0.6%), alongside the weekly ADP employment change and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow update. Elsewhere, Fed’s Waller is on the docket, though will not touch on monetary policy given the Bank is on blackout; Kevin Warsh’s senate hearing is also due. From a yield perspective, the curve is a touch steeper this morning; the 2yr currently resides around 3.73%. A positive outcome from the second round of talks could see the 2yr breach back below the 3.70% and approach near-term lows at 3.67%.
• Bunds are firmer this morning by around 15 ticks, and currently trade towards the mid-point of a 125.90 to 126.17 range. German paper appears to be benefiting from lower energy prices. On the yield front, the curve is lower across the horizon, but with the long-end underperforming. It seems to be the view of bond traders that the Middle East situation has only near-term implications, with 10yr yield action fairly sideways in the past week or so. On the data front, German ZEW deteriorated from the prior, and beneath the consensus. Not all too surprising given this data encapsulates more of the Iran war. No move in Bunds were seen on the data.
• Gilts are currently trading with losses of around 10 ticks, and hold within a 87.83 to 88.42 range. In recent days, domestic politics has taken a bit of attention away from the Middle East situation. The latest update came from the Former UK Foreign Ministry Official Olly Robbins, who said that the Cabinet Office suggested that Mandelson should not be vetted at all, and this was overruled by the Foreign Office. A comment which does not play in favour of PM Starmer, who has managed to shrug off some of the recent pressure he has faced. A little bit of downside was seen in Gilts at the time, but Robbins’ comments came in close proximity to geopolitical updates, which weighed on the broader complex. On the data front, UK unemployment rate fell to 4.9% (exp. 5.2%, prev. 5.2%); which would be welcomed at the BoE.

Commodities

• Crude futures are softer thus far but have clambered off worst levels over US-Iran uncertainty. More recently, reports out of Iran suggest that no delegation has been sent to Islamabad yet, which contradicts earlier reports by Al Jazeera, citing a Pakistani source, that both the Iranian and US teams are present in Islamabad. Both WTI and Brent briefly topped above USD 87/bbl and USD 95/bbl, respectively, before falling back.
• Other updates include the expectation that US VP Vance arrives in Islamabad on Tuesday for the talks, while President Trump stated that the US blockade will remain in place until a deal is reached.
• Spot gold continues to trade within its ascending channel but has slipped back below the USD 4800/oz handle (current range: USD 4773-4833/oz). The modest upside seen in the dollar, thus far, is weighing on the yellow metal, with the 50-SMA at 4891 also providing a ceiling for the metal. Elsewhere, 3M LME Copper oscillates in a tight USD 13.2k-13.3k/t range amid the mixed risk appetite as markets look to potential US-Iran talks.
• Russia is to pause Kazakhstan's oil exports to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline starting May 1st, Reuters reports citing industry sources.
• Gunvor Head of Research Lasserre said oil markets are "one month away from tank bottoms".
• China to lower retail Gasoline and Diesel prices by 555 and 530 CNY/t from April 22nd.
• Kuwait's force majeure on oil shipments is to have a limited impact on South Korea, according to an official cited by Reuters.
• White House signs memo related to coal supply chains; Trump signs determination related to defence production act on domestic petroleum production.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Kremlin, on the potential resumption of flows via Druzhba, said Russia is technically ready but there was "blackmail from Kyiv".
• EU's Kallas said they are to make decisions on Ukraine's EUR 90bln loan on Wednesday.
• Explosion heard in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia.
• Japan is to permit its companies to export lethal weaponry for the first time, in a landmark break with its pacifist stance, according to FT.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Mar Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 1.4%, prior 0.6%
• 8:30 am: United States Mar Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 1.4%, prior 0.5%
• 10:00 am: United States Mar Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 1.8%
• 10:00 am: United States Fed Chair Nominee Warsh Testifies in Confirmation Hearing
• 2:30 pm: United States Fed’s Waller Speaks on Fed Operations

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

In terms of latest on Iran, all eyes are on whether and in what form expected talks in Islamabad take place over the next day or so ahead of the expiration of the earlier two-week ceasefire. Trump said yesterday that this would expire on “Wednesday evening Washington time" and warned that it was “highly unlikely” that he’d extend the ceasefire. Various reporting suggests that Vice President Vance is expected depart to Islamabad today, and we also saw reporting by the New York Times and others that Iran is also sending a team to Islamabad for negotiations. With a spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry earlier saying that Tehran had no plans to attend the negotiations, this has given a more positive light on the talks going ahead, though it remains unclear who would lead the Iranian delegation. 

While the Strait of Hormuz remained shut, the prospects for imminent talks have seen market sentiment edge higher overnight after a subdued session on Monday. Brent crude prices are -0.62% lower at $94.89/bbl after a +5.64% rise yesterday. S&P 500 (+0.17%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.25%) futures are so far recovering most of yesterday's losses, declines that got less severe as the day progressed with the S&P 500 only dipping -0.24% in the end. The probability of traffic returning to normal in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of May, according to Polymarket, stands at 69% this morning from 63% this time yesterday.

The NASDAQ (-0.26%) did end a 13-day winning run, the longest streak since 1992 and only bettered on four occasions in the index's 55-year history. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index did achieve a 14th consecutive gain though. US Treasuries also slipped back modestly, with the 2yr yield (+1.5bps) up to 3.72%, and the 10yr yield (+0.2bps) up to 4.25%. And with doubts creeping back in, the VIX (+1.39pts) saw its biggest daily jump in 3 weeks, though at 18.87pts it still closed below its level on February 27, before the Iran strikes began.

The hangover from the weekend's negative news led to a fresh rise in oil prices, particularly given warnings from Trump that he wouldn’t open the Strait of Hormuz until a deal was signed. So Brent crude was up +5.64% to $95.48/bbl by the close, and there was a clear move higher across the futures curve too, with 6-month Brent futures (+3.16%) back up to $81.97/bbl. And in turn, those moves filtered into inflation pricing, with the 1yr US inflation swap (+2.6bps) up to 3.13%, whilst the Euro inflation swap (+9.1bps) moved up to 3.06%.

This morning, Asian equity markets are rallying, with the KOSPI (+2.31%) again leading the way, driven by optimism surrounding AI-related chip manufacturers. Japanese stocks are also being supported by technology shares, as evidenced by the Nikkei (+1.29%) which is trading significantly higher. On the other hand, Chinese stocks are more mixed with the Hang Seng (+0.13%) slightly higher but the CSI (-0.35%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.24%) lower.

As much as the Middle East is the main focus for markets, especially as we near the end of the ceasefire, today there’ll also be attention on Kevin Warsh’s nomination hearing (10am ET) to become the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. He’s appearing at the Senate Banking Committee, so investors will get an opportunity to hear his views on policy and a whole array of Fed-related issues. For more information, our US economists published a note on Friday (link here) where they outline 5 things to watch. They think the critical questions will be how forcefully Warsh argues for near-term rate cuts, particularly given the recent upside risks to inflation from the Iran war, as well as views on Fed independence. In prepared remarks that were reported yesterday, Warsh says that “monetary policy independence is essential” but also noting that “Fed independence is largely up to the Fed” and that “Fed independence is placed at greatest risk when it strays into fiscal and social policies where it has neither authority nor expertise.” So focusing on the importance of Fed independence but also suggesting that the central bank needs to earn it.  

Whilst the focus will be on Warsh, another point to look out for will be Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who’s said he’ll block any Fed appointments until the Department of Justice probe into Chair Powell is over. He sits on the Senate Banking Committee, but the Republicans only have a 13-11 majority, meaning if Tillis votes against then he could hold up Warsh’s nomination if the Democrats joined him. Powell’s current term as Chair concludes in mid-May, but he has a separate seat on the Board of Governors that lasts until January 2028, and at the most recent press conference, Powell said he’d serve as Chair pro tempore until his successor was confirmed. For reference, that’s what happened between Powell’s first and second terms as Powell awaited Senate confirmation, but that was when Powell himself had been re-nominated by President Biden, whereas Trump has suggested that “I’ll have to fire him” if Powell didn’t leave the Fed.

Earlier in Europe, markets underperformed their US counterparts, reflecting the continent’s greater exposure to higher energy prices. So the STOXX 600 (-0.82%) fell back, alongside declines for the DAX (-1.15%), the CAC 40 (-1.12%) and the FTSE 100 (-0.55%). That followed mounting speculation that the ECB would still need to hike rates this year if the oil shock were more prolonged, with the amount of hikes priced by December up +7.2bps on the day to 45bps. So sovereign bonds also lost ground across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (+2.1bps), OATs (+3.4bps) and BTPs (+4.4bps) all rising.

Here in the UK, 10yr gilts (+7.1bps) underperformed as question marks around Keir Starmer’s position as PM continued to swirl. The latest issues follow last week’s revelation that Peter Mandelson was appointed as US ambassador despite failing security vetting. That’s set to remain in the headlines today as well, because we’ll hear from Oliver Robbins, who was the most senior civil servant in the Foreign Office, who’s appearing before the Foreign Affairs Committee of MPs at 9am London time. Robbins was sacked for not informing Starmer that Mandelson hadn’t passed the vetting, so his version of events will be in focus today.

Finally, there wasn’t much data yesterday, but Canada’s inflation print was softer than expected, with headline CPI only up to +2.4% in March (vs. +2.6% expected). Moreover, the two core inflation measures tracked by the Bank of Canada were either in line or slightly beneath consensus. So that eased concern about imminent rate hikes, and Canada’s 10yr government bond yield fell -1.0bps on the day, outperforming its counterparts in the US and Europe.

Looking at the day ahead, one of the main highlights will be the US Senate Banking Committee, which is holding a nomination hearing for Kevin Warsh to become Chair of the Federal Reserve. Other central banks speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Nagel and Kocher. And data releases include US retail sales for March, the German ZEW survey for April and UK unemployment for February.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 08:31

Europe's EV Sales Jump 51% As Iran War Sends Gasoline Prices Soaring

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com,

Registrations of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in Europe’s key automotive markets surged by 51% in March as the Iran war pushed gasoline prices to multi-year highs, data published by research firm New Automotive and trade association E-Mobility Europe showed on Monday.

A Tesla charging on a street in Amsterdam

More than 224,000 new electric passenger cars were registered in March alone across 15 key EU + EFTA markets, the analysis found. These sales accounted for as much as 22% of all new passenger car sales across the key European markets.

In another sign that expensive gasoline is pushing drivers to EVs, European Union member states registered more than 500,000 new electric cars in the first quarter of 2026, a surge of 33.5% compared to the same period last year, the data showed.

New BEV registrations accelerated across every major EU market in the first quarter of 2026. Europe’s five largest countries — Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and Poland — all recorded BEV growth above 40% year-to-date.

Europe’s biggest car market, Germany, saw a rebound in EV sales after the introduction of new incentives, with around one in four cars registered in March fully electric – a 42% year-to-date jump, according to the data.

Italy’s BEV registrations soared by 65% year-to-date, boosting the EV market share to 8.6% in March from about 5% as of the end of 2025.

France continued to lead among large markets with a 28% BEV share in March, underpinned by its social leasing scheme, and nearly 50% year-to-date growth.

Energy security was the catalyst for change in driver choice in recent weeks, analysts at New Automotive and E-Mobility Europe say.

“At a time when energy security has moved to the top of the political agenda, the EV transition is delivering real and measurable resilience,” commented Ben Nelmes, CEO of New Automotive.

“The pace of change we’re now seeing across major European markets — including countries like Italy and Poland that were slower to start — suggests the transition has entered a new phase.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 07:20

IMO Draws Up Hormuz Evacuation Plan For 800 Ships Trapped In Gulf

Tanker traffic through the Hormuz chokepoint remained muted as of Tuesday morning, with maritime movement still far below pre-US-Iran conflict levels. The ship backlog in the Persian Gulf has now swelled to a staggering 800 vessels, underscoring the scale of the disruption, while the International Maritime Organization is reportedly drawing up evacuation plans for stranded ships.

Bloomberg quoted the Secretary-General of the IMO, Arsenio Dominguez, who stated on the sidelines of Singapore Maritime Week earlier today that the IMO is preparing a humanitarian evacuation of 800 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf after the nearly two-month conflict.

"In order for us to do anything at all, we need to make sure that the conflict has come to an end, that there are no threats of any ships being attacked, and that the region is clear from any hazards, including mines," Dominguez said.

The proposed evacuation plan would prioritize ship departures based in part on how long crews have been stranded in the Persian Gulf, with vessels using the long-established Traffic Separation Scheme through the strait.

Dominguez said the effort is focused on evacuating seafarers, not necessarily protecting cargo values, describing it as a humanitarian corridor rather than a commercial reopening.

"This is about the seafarers. This is about the people," Dominguez said. "Because if we actually start looking into the cargo, the values, the commodities, et cetera, then this is not going to work. The decision of the council was very clear. It's a humanitarian corridor to evacuate the seafarers from the region."

The Hormuz situation has been made worse in recent days as Iran's military vowed to retaliate after the U.S. Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship near the maritime chokepoint. The U.S. naval blockade of the strait is still ongoing.

Since the commencement of the blockade against ships entering or exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas, U.S. forces have directed 27 vessels to turn around or return to an Iranian port. pic.twitter.com/G8dl96wN4H

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 20, 2026

Since the start of the blockade, the U.S. military has directed 27 ships to turn back or return to an Iranian port, according to CENTCOM on X.

There have been five passenger ships that steamed through the strait during its temporary opening last week. There was a report from Lloyd's List that said more than two dozen Iranian-linked ships have evaded the blockade.

Meanwhile, the U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire is set to expire on Wednesday, as Vice President JD Vance and other U.S. negotiators are set to travel to Pakistan for a new round of peace talks.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 06:55

How The Iranian Regime Destroyed Its Economy... Long Before The War

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

As negotiations edge towards a ceasefire, Tehran is trying to blame the country’s economic collapse on the war and foreign pressure.

Yet the data tell a different story: Iran’s economy was already structurally broken before the war.

Years of ideological policymaking, institutionalised corruption, and the militarisation of the economy have caused Iran’s economic ruin. 

Iran has been in a state of permanent economic emergency since at least 2018. Official inflation has remained above 40% year after year, destroying the country’s middle class.

World Bank estimates show average inflation in the high 30s for most of the 2018–2025 period, with spikes of up to 60%, driven by massive currency depreciation and the constant monetisation of fiscal deficits. 

Monetary collapse and the myth of sanctions

Since 2018, the rial has lost almost 95% of its value against the dollar, including a depreciation of more than 60% just between 2024 and 2025.

This collapse stems from relentless money printing to finance uncontrolled budget deficits, a domestic loss of confidence in the currency, capital flight, and a regime that has treated the central bank as a mere financing arm of the state.

All of this has happened while the government received billions of dollars from oil exports and enormous financial support from China, Russia, and other Asian countries. 

This is a state that prints money without restraint or underlying demand

The regime insists that Western sanctions are the primary cause of hardship. This is a convenient but false excuse. 

The Iranian regime has not fallen into economic crisis because of U.S. sanctions. It has dozens of trade agreements with the world’s largest economies and generates enormous oil income from exports of more than 1.3 million barrels per day.

The problem is that practically none of this wealth reaches ordinary citizens. This is a state that prints money without restraint or underlying demand, borrows heavily from its own banking system and generates capital flights while its currency collapses. 

Financing terror and institutional corruption

The elimination of Mohammad Reza Ashrafi Kahi, head of Trade at the Oil Headquarters, exposed a multibillion-dollar structure that financed the military activities of the Revolutionary Guard, Hamas, Hezbollah, and other armed groups using revenues from crude oil sales. 

Between November 2024 and November 2025, government debt to the banking system increased by 41% and debt to the central bank by 68%, forcing the authorities to monetise the deficit.

Over the same period, commercial banks increased their borrowing from the central bank by 63%, flooding the economy with worthless local currency.

Official sources cited by the oil exporters’ association report 47 billion dollars in crude oil and gas export revenues in 2025

As a result, the money supply was growing at annual rates of more than 40%, according to official data compiled by expert Mohamad Machine Chian, with the rial plunging despite massive export revenues. 

These huge oil revenues are used to finance corruption and terror. Official sources cited by the oil exporters’ association report 47 billion dollars in crude oil and gas export revenues in 2025.

With that level of income, the economy would be growing, and inflation would be moderate if the funds were used to benefit Iranian society and its productive fabric.

Instead, reports on capital outflows describe a clear pattern: money leaves Iran faster than it comes in, which forces the regime to rely even more on the printing press and on internal fiscal plunder, according to the BTI Project. 

IRGC dominance and the destruction of the private sector

Iran has implemented all the measures that demolish an economy: legal and investor insecurity, expropriations, price controls, subsidies, and an oversized public sector that preys on a private sector now reduced to barely 15% of the economy.

When oil revenues are diverted to finance terrorist and military projects, the government tries to create an illusion of strength through monetary financing and opaque off-budget operations, accelerating inflation and currency collapse.

Over decades, the Guards have transformed themselves from a military organisation into a sprawling business empire 

At the heart of Iran’s self-inflicted economic damage lies the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Over decades, the Guards have transformed themselves from a military organisation into a sprawling business empire that now controls an estimated 45–50% of economic activity.

Through parastatal conglomerates, front companies, and privileged access to state contracts, the IRGC dominates key sectors including energy, construction, telecommunications, and transport (Iran: Institutionalized Corruption and a Collapsed Economy, Shamsi Saadati). 

The human cost and obstacles to recovery

This dominance has several destructive effects.

Crowding out productive investment. Most oil and state revenues are sent to IRGC-linked entities. A large part of resources is used to finance regional terror groups and foreign expansion adventures. 

While other oil exporters built sovereign wealth funds, invested in human capital, and diversified into services and manufacturing, Iran’s regime used oil rents to entrench political control, finance terror, and reward cronyism.

The human cost of this mismanagement created poverty and unrest. Years of high inflation have pushed most of the middle class into poverty by wiping out savings and eroding wages in real terms. 

By the time the current war began, the economy was already in deep crisis. 

The main obstacles to recovery are political rather than technical. Iran needs fiscal discipline, central bank independence, transparent budgeting, a sharp reduction in the IRGC’s economic dominance, and a credible commitment to the rule of law and property rights.

Instead, the regime has consistently chosen its survival, imposing a system of terror and sacrificing growth and prosperity to maintain political control. 

Long before the first bomb fell, the regime had already destroyed the economy and any prospect of sustainable growth and social stability.

The challenge for any future government will be to rebuild an economy that serves citizens rather than a narrow circle of officials.

Ending the war is urgent; ending the current regime’s economic model is essential.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 06:30

Data Centers Drove Half Of All Growth In US Electricity Use In 2025

Global electricity demand rose by 3% in 2025, with growth nearly triple compared to the 1.3% increase in total energy consumption, as data centers and electric vehicles continued to push power use higher, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report on Monday.

Overall global energy demand growth slowed to 1.3% in 2025, slightly below the previous decade's average of 1.4% and significantly lower than in 2024, as global economic growth slowed and cooling demand in Asia was lower than in 2024, the IEA found in its annual Global Energy Review report published today.

While total energy demand growth cooled, electricity demand continued to grow strongly, with an annual rise of 3% last year, the IEA found. 

The growth rate dropped from 4.4% in 2024, when intense heat waves in India and Southeast Asia had boosted electricity consumption. Still, the 2025 growth rate in electricity demand remained above the 2.8% annual average between 2014 and 2024 and was also well over twice the 1.3% rate of overall global energy demand growth in 2025.

The global numbers mask the important role played by China. The country’s energy intensity improvements slowed sharply from nearly 4% per year between 2010 and 2019 to just 0.6% per year from 2019 to 2024. In 2025, China’s energy intensity improvement jumped back to above 3%. Putting China aside, global energy intensity improvements would have appeared more stable in recent years. Understanding why China’s energy intensity slowed so dramatically in recent years requires further analysis. However, it appears to be in part because of adverse weather and partly due to structural changes in China’s economy after Covid-19 towards a more export- and industry-intensive model of growth.

Electricity demand in the United States grew by 2% last year, slower than the 2.8% growth seen in 2024 but more than three times as fast as the average growth rate over the previous decade, the IEA said.

The buildings sector accounted for 80% of US power demand growth in 2025, boosted in particular by rapidly-increasing data center loads. Data center power demand alone contributed around half of the entire increase in electricity consumption in the U.S. last year. A cold winter, with a nearly 10% increase in heating degree days, also supported power demand in 2025 by boosting space heating needs, according to the Paris-based agency.

Solar power met the most of the energy demand growth globally last year, followed by gas, the IEA said.

In the electricity sector, the additional 600 terawatt-hours of solar PV generation worldwide in 2025 marked the largest structural increase ever recorded in a single year for any electricity generation technology, contributing to a decline in coal-fired electricity generation globally. Battery storage was the fastest-growing power sector technology in 2025. The roughly 110 gigawatts of new battery storage capacity added during the year exceeded the largest-ever annual capacity additions for natural gas. Meanwhile over 12 gigawatts of nuclear power reactors began construction in 2025, amid renewed momentum for nuclear projects in several regions.

“Global energy demand continued to increase in 2025 against a complex economic and geopolitical backdrop, with one trend unmistakeable: the expanding electrification of economies,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

“Electricity consumption is growing much faster than overall energy demand – and one energy source is growing much faster than any other. Solar PV accounted for over a quarter of all of the world’s energy demand growth – more than any other source, for the first time – followed right after by natural gas. In today’s rapidly shifting landscape, countries that prioritise resilience and diversification will be best placed to manage volatility and deliver secure and affordable energy in the years ahead.”

Here are the reports' key findings summarized:

• All major energy fuels and technologies grew in 2025 – but at very different rates. Overall global energy demand growth slowed to 1.3%, just below the average for the previous decade. Slower economic growth and slower growth in energy-intensive industries in some regions, lower cooling demand, and faster efficiency improvements all contributed to slower demand growth.

• Solar PV, the largest single source of growth, met more than 25% of higher demand, followed by natural gas, which contributed 17%. This was the first time on record that a modern renewable source contributed the largest share of global energy demand growth. Demand for oil, natural gas and coal all grew in 2025, but at a slower rate than in 2024. Low-emissions sources combined – solar, wind, nuclear, hydropower and other renewables – contributed nearly 60% of the growth in global demand.

• Demand growth in the United States rose to its second highest level since 2000, excluding post-recession rebound years, boosted by strong electricity demand from data centers, robust industrial growth and colder temperatures. The People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”) accounted for the largest overall share of global energy demand growth, but at 1.7% its growth rate slowed sharply due to the rapid growth of renewables and efficiency improvements.

• Demand for electricity grew at well over twice the rate of energy demand, reaffirming that the world has entered the Age of Electricity. Growth of nearly 3% remained above the average of 2.8% over the last decade, but was slower than in 2024, largely due to one-off factors such as lower demand for cooling in India and Southeast Asia. Electricity demand growth was again driven by a wide range of end uses in buildings and industry. Although only contributing a small share of this total growth, demand from electric vehicles and data centres grew rapidly. In the United States, data centres made up half of all growth in electricity use.

• Oil demand growth slowed further in 2025, increasing by 0.65 million barrels per day (mb/d) or 0.7%, down from 2024’s already muted 0.75 mb/d of growth. The increase in both years, which was in line with IEA projections, remained well below the average annual rise between 2010 and 2019 of 1.4 mb/d. The slower increase mainly reflected weaker growth in petrochemical feedstocks, notably in China, while continued growth of electric vehicles kept oil demand for road transport in check. Electric car sales continued their rapid growth, climbing over 20% to more than 20 million units – around one quarter of new car sales in 2025.

• Gas demand growth slowed markedly in 2025, rising by around 1%, down from the 2.8% recorded in 2024, amid relatively high prices in the first half of the year. Incremental demand was largely concentrated in the United States and European Union, supported by colder winter weather, and in the Middle East, where gas use in the power sector grew quickly. By contrast, Asia Pacific demand grew at its weakest pace since the 2022 energy crisis.

• Coal demand in 2025 grew only modestly above 2024 levels, rising by around 0.4%. In the United States, gas-to-coal switching and strong growth in electricity demand supported a 10% rise in coal use, reversing the trend of recent declines. Coal demand was flat in China: strong renewables growth pushed down coal use in electricity generation, while in industry, lower coal use in steel and cement production was offset by increased use for chemicals. Coal demand for power generation decreased in India, mostly due to an early, strong and long monsoon.

• The increase in generation from renewables and nuclear power in 2025 exceeded the total growth in electricity supply. The 2025 increase in solar PV of 600 terawatt-hours (TWh) was the largest-ever electricity generation increase by any source in one year, outside of periods of post-crisis recovery. The rise in solar PV alone met around 70% of electricity generation growth. Renewables combined now virtually match total global generation from coal. In the European Union, the share of solar PV and wind reached 30% in 2025, surpassing that of fossil fuels for the first time. Electricity generation from natural gas and from nuclear power continued to grow at the global level in 2025.  

• Annual global renewable capacity additions rose to a record 800 gigawatts (GW), of which solar contributed 75%. Battery storage was the fastest growing power technology: capacity additions rose by around 40% in 2025 to reach almost 110 GW, more than the highest-ever annual capacity additions from natural gas. In addition, construction started on over 12 GW of nuclear power capacity in 2025.

• Global growth in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions slowed further in 2025, rising by around 0.4%. Emissions from China fell due to the boom in renewables, structural declines in energy-intensive industry, and overall slower demand growth. India’s energy-related CO2 emissions were flat for the first time since the 1970s, largely due to cyclical effects from a strong monsoon combined with structural growth in renewables. A cold winter and higher natural gas prices pushed up emissions in advanced economies. Due to these trends, emissions from advanced economies grew faster (+0.5%) than those from emerging market and developing economies (+0.3%) for the first time since the 1990s.

• The rollout of clean energy technologies since 2019 avoided more than 35 exajoules of annual fossil fuel demand in 2025, equivalent to around 7% of global fossil fuel use annually. Deployment of solar PV, wind, nuclear, electric cars and heat pumps since 2019 also prevents 3 billion tonnes of CO2 annually, or around 8% of global emissions. The avoided coal demand (around 800 million tonnes of coal equivalent) equates to more than the entire coal use of India in 2025. Estimated avoided gas demand (over 260 billion cubic metres) is equivalent to almost half the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market.

Full report here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 05:45

'Highly Unlikely' US Will Extend Iran Ceasefire, 'Lots Of Bombs Will Go Off' If No Deal: Trump Summary

• Trump says 'highly unlikely' will extend ceasefire if deal not signed in Pakistan. Pakistan PM Sharif reportedly asked US & Iran, pressing for another 2-week extension.

• President Pezeshkian cites "historical distrust" and states on X: "they seek Iran's surrender. Iranians do not submit to force."

• Vance intends to depart Tuesday to Pakistan, though still unclear whether Iranians will join - Pakistanis say yes, but timeline is fluid. Trump warns "nobody's playing games" & "lots of bombs will go off" if no deal (PBS)

• Xi to Saudi crown prince important phone call: "the first time the Chinese leader had called for the reopening of the strategically vital waterway."

//--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Yes 28% · No 72%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

NYT: Iranians Making Plans to be in Pakistan 

The NYT now says the Iranians are soon expected in Pakistan, despite that for the past 12-hours they issued denials that they are ready and willing to enter a second round of talks. In the meantime Pakistan is reportedly pressing for another 2-week extension of the ceasefire.

"An Iranian delegation is making plans to travel to Islamabad on Tuesday for negotiations with the United States, according to two senior Iranian officials familiar with the plans. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the influential political and military figure leading the talks," the publication writes. Latest follow-up from Ghalibaf amid continued conflicting info:

Yet, talk about of Tehran is still firm and tough, signaling the two sides are in reality far away from agreeing on anything, particularly the nuclear issue. While Iranian President Pezeshkian has newly stated that "honoring commitments is the basis of meaningful dialogue" - it remains there is "historical distrust". He has stated on X: "they seek Iran's surrender. Iranians do not submit to force."

An afternoon very long Truth Truth Social, claiming that Trump won't let Democrats rush US into making a deal with Iran. Also says the new deal will be far better than the Obama-era JCPOA.

And he followed soon after with:

Trump: 'Highly Unlikely' He Extends Ceasefire

Lots of contradictory messaging this morning from Washington, Tehran, and Islamabad. Trump has said he will note open the Strait of Hormuz until a deal is signed (as both sides inside they in effect control the waterway).

Trump has also asserted that it remains 'highly unlikely' that he extends the ceasefire with Iran, at a moment Tasnim reports that "Iran's decision not to participate in the negotiations has not changed until this moment."

'Lots of Bombs Will Go Off' If Ceasefire Ends With No Deal: Trump

President Trump says bombs will go off if the ceasefire expires (set to end by Wed April 22), PBS reports. But he also said he doesn't know if Iran is doing the next round of talks but says it is fine if Iran is not at the Pakistan talks. So who does Washington, led by VP Vance's team, plan to talk to... itself? Or it might just plan to keep sending messages to the Pakistanis. The US could also be seeking to 'demonstrate' that the Iranians have simply refused negotiations, and so this will 'justify' bombs away again. Here are the latest Monday statements from Trump given to PBS:

• If no deal "then lots of bombs start going off."
• Nuclear weapons will be discussed with Iran at the talks.
• "No nuclear weapons. Very simple. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Very simple."
• "...we're not negotiating anything other than the fact that they will not have a nuclear weapon"
• On the remarks from Secretary Wright that gas may not go below USD 3 until late-2026 or early-2027, Trump says: "I disagree with him totally. I think it'll come roaring down if it ends. If we end it, if Iran does what they should do, it will come roaring down."

His latest Monday morning Truth Social post, which appears very on the defensive:

Fresh Pentagon data indicates the US blockade has thus far directed 27 vessels to turn back.

Contradictory Reports of Vance Travel

So it seems the second round of talks are actually on, after several recent contradictory headlines concerning Tehran's intent to send a team. As of Monday morning the Iranians have been signaling the cold shoulder, even as Pakistani officials quietly leak that their arrival is expected.

The NY Post freshly reports: "Vice President JD Vance and the US delegation to the peace talks here with Iran are en route to Pakistan and expected to land within hours, President Trump on Monday told The Post — adding that he was willing to meet with senior Iranian leaders if a breakthrough is reached." However, CNN is saying he has not actually departed yet, and may not till Tuesday, as the talks are reportedly being planned for Wednesday.

"We’re supposed to have the talks," Trump said in an interview when asked whether talks or still happening of if they are falling apart. He added: "So I would assume at this point nobody's playing games." According to more:

The president confirmed that a high-level US delegation — including Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner — is already en route to Islamabad for the next round of negotiations.

“They’re heading over now,” Trump said shortly after 9 a.m. EST. “They’ll be there tonight, [Islamabad] time.”

NBC notes that, "Further complicating the picture, different Iranian leaders are sending contradictory messages. The IRGC vowed revenge for the seizing of an Iranian cargo ship yesterday, even as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian continued to emphasize diplomacy."

Shipping Traffic Halt Latest

Al Jazeera and others have written the strait is at a virtual standstill currently, after the major Sunday incident which saw the US Navy intercept, fire upon, and board an uncooperative ship which was trying to pass the US-imposed blockade. It was an Iranian-flagged ship which was forcibly stopped in the Gulf of Oman, where some dozen US warships have been patrolling.

Just three ships have crossed in the past 12 hours, shipping data indicates. The same publication records that "Oil products tanker Nero, which is under UK sanctions, has left the Gulf and is sailing through the strait, according to satellite analysis from data analytics specialists SynMax and tracking data from the Kpler platform." And: "Two other ships – a chemical tanker and a liquefied natural gas tanker – have also sailed into the Gulf through the critical waterway separately, the data showed."

Reuters: Senior Iranian official says positive efforts have been started by Pakistan to end the US blockade and ensure Iran's participation in talks.

On Monday a spokesman for Iran's military reiterated a threat to "take the necessary action against the US military" after the Sunday US interdiction. He described that that Iran's military exercised restraint over the incident, not taking immediate action, in order to protect the ship's crew, but will act "once it is ensured that the lives of the families and crew of the vessel attacked by the United States are safeguarded." Apparently the crew's family members are accompanying them aboard the vessel, the statement suggests.

⚡️ US military releases footage of “seizure of Iranian ship Touska in Strait of Hormuz” pic.twitter.com/d7qk7G5oeC

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 19, 2026 Important Xi Jinping Statement on Hormuz

China's President Xi Jinping on Monday demanded the uninterrupted passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz in a phone call with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, state news agency Xinhua reports. He urged the normalization of shipping traffic after about 50 days of disruption which obviously and significantly impacts Chinese oil imports.

"Normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz should be maintained, this is in the shared interests of regional countries and the international community," Xi said. He called for an immediate, comprehensive ceasefire and insisted disputes be resolved through political and diplomatic means.

South China Morning Post observes that it was "the first time the Chinese leader had called for the reopening of the strategically vital waterway, which has been repeatedly blockaded since US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28." China imported 5.86 million tons of crude oil from Saudi Arabia, down 10% from February, according to customs data released Monday.

Second Pakistan Talks Imminent? 

After the Sunday dramatic US seizure of the Iranian-flagged ship, Iran's Foreign Ministry has said the country currently no plans regarding a new round of talks, however, it also said it is reviewing the latest Washington proposal related to a second round of Pakistan-hosted talks. With that, by Monday it reasserted that the transfer of enriched uranium out of the country or into US custody has never been on the table. Tehran is insisting that it won't be transferred anywhere.

This firm stance is after President dramatically shifted his tone over the weekend from strangely and surprisingly somewhat praising Iran's leadership (with statements such as the US could work with them and possibly trust them) to once up again ramping up threats, posting "No more Mr. Nice Guy" on social media. 

Currently there are conflicting reports on whether the Iranian side will actually be there for reported possible Tuesday talks. Pakistan officials say the timing of the talks remains fluid. According to the latest via Associated Press Iranian authorities have expressed willingness to send a delegation to Islamabad, citing two Pakistan officials. The officials reports "cautious optimism that delegations from both Iran and the United States could travel to Islamabad."

Some confused and conflicting signaling, likely purposely so...

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei:

We have no plans for the next round of negotiations. pic.twitter.com/CFb16qt8vM

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 20, 2026

The NY Times has declared that JD Vance will try again:

The vice president is scheduled to lead an American delegation back to Islamabad, Pakistan, this week for another round of in-person negotiations with Iran after failing to secure a deal just over a week ago.

Whether the talks even occur seems in dispute. Hours after President Trump announced the trip on Sunday, Iranian state media said that Tehran had not yet agreed to any such meeting. Later, Mr. Trump announced that a Naval destroyer had attacked an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that tried to skirt the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz.

President Trump has been threatening major escalation should there be no negotiated settlement, at a moment the two sides' position are very distant especially on the nuclear issue.

Zero Sum Positions on Nuclear Issue

The problem, according to University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape is the zero sum logic of it all. "In a matter of a day, the system snapped back to escalation," he wrote over the weekend. "This is not a story about fragile diplomacy or poor sequencing. It is a story about zero-sum conflict, where the core issues cannot be divided, traded, or deferred without forcing one side to accept a strategic loss—a direct contest over relative power."

"At the center of the war is a fact that cannot be negotiated away: Iran either retains a nuclear capability on the threshold of weapons, or it does not," Pape continues. "There is no stable middle ground that satisfies both sides."

POTUS is laying out two courses of action—a negotiated settlement, or a major escalation.

There is a third option, and he should take it: recognize there is no way to force a positive outcome and simply leave.

The region is not ours to fix. President Reagan chose this path in… pic.twitter.com/5ovi05FdwE

— Joe Kent (@joekent16jan19) April 19, 2026

And more from the analysis: "The same zero-sum logic applies—more visibly and more immediately—to the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, Hormuz functioned as a global commons, carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. That assumption is now broken. Iran has demonstrated that it can shift from disruption to conditional control, allowing passage under its terms while restricting or denying access when it chooses. The United States, in response, is attempting to preserve open navigation through blockade and interdiction. But these positions cannot be reconciled."

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 05:25

"Use The Momentum": The EU Moves To Destroy The Last Vestiges Of National Sovereignty

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The defeat of Viktor Orban in Hungary last weekend was celebrated by many who saw the former president as establishing single-party rule in his central European nation. The irony is that this claimed victory for democracy may fuel the establishment of a global governance system that is neither democratic nor accountable to citizens.

The European Union was criticized by many for taking sides in the Hungarian election and for undermining Orban, who asserted national priorities in disputes with the EU. 

No sooner had Orban conceded defeat than a jubilant European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for the final coup de grace for national identity and sovereignty: the elimination of the ability of nations to stand against EU policies.

Orban was controversial for his ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin and his lack of support for Ukraine. He was also accused of authoritarianism and corruption. I shared in some of those criticisms.

However, the unintended consequence of this election could be the removal of a single autocrat in favor of a global bureaucracy.

Van der Leyen helped elect the pro-EU Peter Magyar in order to remove a barrier to the EU’s ultimate exercise of power. The EU had been squeezing Hungary over its defiance by holding back billions in funds. Despite his tough talk on negotiations with the EU, Magyar is expected by EU bureaucrats to be a suppliant, willing to fall into line with the EU agenda.

The EU Chief has reportedly already given Magyar a list of 27 demands he must meet before she will turn the spigot back on. She did not try to hide the agenda, announcing that the EU needed to “use the momentum now” to consolidate its power.

With Hungary out of the way, Von der Leyen is calling for the EU to finally do away with the last vestige of national sovereignty: the veto exercised by its member states.

Under the plan, member states would lose control of their policy and could be forced to adhere to the priorities and values of the EU majority.

The EU Chief celebrated the new day of global governance in the making: “Moving to qualified majority voting in foreign policy is an important way to avoid systemic blockages, as we have seen in the past.”

In “Rage and the Republic,” I discuss the dangers posed to the American republic this century by the rise of global governance systems like the EU. The book explores how globalists planned to gradually get nations to yield their authority to the EU — destroying national identity and sovereignty in favor of an EU bureaucracy in Brussels.

As the EU moves to kill off national sovereignty, EU commissioners are calling for a single European military command, completing a longstanding globalist goal.

The 250th anniversary of our republic is occurring as we face an unprecedented EU threat. Our revolution was fought against a foreign empire. It now faces an even greater threat from a global government asserting the right to compel American companies to censor Americans and comply with environmental, social and governance or ESG policies.

At the same time, American figures such as Hillary Clinton are encouraging the EU to deprive Americans of their First Amendment rights using the infamous Digital Services Act to restore speech controls to social media. Other Americans have testified before the EU, calling on it to fight the U.S. Banners are now flying in Europe declaring, “We are the Free World Now,” as the globalists attempt to supplant freedoms guaranteed by the U.S. Constitution.

If the American Republic is to survive another 250 years, it must preserve key rights that the EU has been systematically destroying in Europe — freedom of speech, division of powers and political accountability of decision-makers.

That is why, I believe, the EU is inherently unstable and likely to ultimately collapse.

The EU has worked very hard to dismantle national sovereignty and identity in its member states. Historically, such collapses have been followed by different forms of tyranny.

Whatever comes next — and I could be wrong in my pessimism about the EU — the U.S. must take seriously the threat that this global governance system poses to our own values and sovereignty.

Von der Leyen is right that there is “momentum now” for the globalists, but the momentum of history still rests with the U.S. and its unique experiment in self-governance.

We saw this threat before, and we defeated a world empire. If we are to survive and thrive in this century, we will need to return to our own creation as a republic — to dig deep down and remember who we are as citizens.

Ours was the first Enlightenment revolution that embraced natural rights originating not from government but from God. We remain a unique people, joined by an article of faith found in our own Declaration of Independence. If this republic is to survive, it will be up to each of us, in the words of Benjamin Franklin, to “keep it.”

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 05:00

Gaza Needs Over $71BN In Next Decade If Enclave Hopes To Recover: New UN Report

More than $71 billion will be required over the next decade to recover and rebuild Gaza following the brutal Israel-Hamas war, according to a new report. Hamas leadership has been largely decimated, though the group has yet to be completely disarmed, and there are still calls within the Israeli government among some hawkish officials to simply conquer and promote Jewish settlement of the whole territory.

In their final Gaza Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) which was released Monday, the European Union and the United Nations said the conflict has had a "catastrophic impact on human development" and left the enclave in urgent need of massive funding.

UNRWA image: Destruction in northern Gaza.

A massive $26.3 billion will be needed in just the first 18 months to restore essential services and rebuild infrastructure, per the report. And much more will be needed in the years to follow if Gaza is ever returned to 'normal'.

"Physical infrastructure damages are estimated at $35.2 billion, with economic and social losses amounting to $22.7 billion," a joint statement said.

Gaza official remains under a fragile ceasefire agreed in October following two years of war triggered by the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel. Gaza health officials have stated over 75,000 people died in 2+ years of heavy Israeli bombardment, as well as ground operations.

The hardest-hit sectors include "housing, health, education, commerce, and agriculture, and the war has set back human development in Gaza by 77 years - per the report, also as reviewed by Al Jazeera.

There currently doesn't really seem to be much of a serious plan or much momentum toward rebuilding, however, given there are currently two competing visions for reconstruction of Gaza: one is Trump's 'Board of Peace' and the other is an UN-backed approach.

The United Nations and the European Union have said reconstruction must be "Palestinian-led" and based on "approaches that actively support the transition of governance to the Palestinian Authority."

But part of Washington's approach is to establish a sprawling multi-national military base inside Gaza. This could include some 5,000 troops - including potentially American soldiers.

However, the Trump administration has consistently stated it doesn't plant to put 'boots on the ground' in Gaza, but that could change. Turkey has been poised to offer some troops, but this is highly controversial from the West's perspective.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 04:15

Ukraine Seeks To Import African Migrants To Fill Labor Shortage After 100s Of 1000s Dead Or Wounded At The Front

Via Remix News,

Volodymyr Zelensky’s head of his Presidential Office in Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, has announced plans to import migrant laborers from Africa. Essentially, this entails Ukraine establishing new laws for the legal entry and residence of foreign workers.

The government will introduce a new list of “migration-risk” countries to facilitate this plan, according to remarks Budanov made at the CEO Club Ukraine.

“They enter, obtain documents, and then move on. This is a problem that creates barriers for business,” Budanov reportedly said, emphasizing that Ukraine will now move to make it easier for migrants to stay and work in Ukraine.

Last October, rumors swirled that Ukraine was directly recruiting mercenaries from Latin American drug cartels to fight in its war against Russia. Kyiv’s forced conscription policies at home, which often resort to violence, have already raised numerous concerns about the brutal practices of Zelensky’s military as well as the desperate situation Ukraine is in due to loss of life on the frontlines.

It has long been known that Ukraine faces a serious demographic crisis, now exacerbated by men who have died in the war or fled to other countries. Already, there have been voices pushing for mass immigration in Ukraine since the war began. Last year, Remix News reported that Vasyl Voskobojnik, president of the Ukrainian Association of Foreign Employment Agencies, said the population decline can no longer be offset by simply increasing the birthrate. Instead, immigration from Third-World countries is the only solution.

Voskobojnik said the Ukrainian government must develop a migration policy by 2026 that focuses on reducing this shortage.

However, importing foreign workers and foreign warriors (who may or may not have criminal ties) will only add to concerns that Ukraine will ever be a desired member of the European Union, as the EU faces its own crises brought on by mass immigration.

🇭🇺🇺🇦 PM Orbán: Europe’s wars lead to fewer White Christian Europeans and more migrants

Hungary's leader says the war in Ukraine is a demographic disaster, just like WWI and WWII were for Hungary. Now, migrants will be being used to fill the missing gaps. pic.twitter.com/IEwMOcJmxv

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) May 28, 2024

Last autumn, Ukraine’s former minister of foreign affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, flatly stated that Ukraine may have to open its borders to Asian migrants because of its demographic crisis, with Ukraine already having the worst population growth in Europe, even before the war. 

Kuleba said Ukraine has to focus on people “who need this country and are ready to rebuild it.” These people exist, he said, although they are in the minority, then indicating that the only solution is to bring in migrants. 

These migrant newcomers will also need adequate housing, wages and a working environment to make them choose Ukraine. However, it is questionable how a country whose economy and state administration are in ruins as a result of war could handle mass immigration from the Third World. Unlike how migration was marketed, many of the migrants who came to Western Europe have ended up draining state coffers through social welfare, education, housing, and integration. In Germany, for instance, foreigners cost the government nearly €50 billion in 2023.

Ukraine also does not have as many resources for integrating migrants as Western states, and as already noted, integration has been far from a success story there. Even groups that have lived there for centuries, such as the Hungarians, are actively discriminated against, even at the government level.

Since Ukraine will mostly be rebuilt using Western funds, it is likely that Americans, Germans, and French people, already hit hard by the costs of mass immigration, will be the ones paying for social welfare and integration for Ukraine’s newly arrived welfare recipients.

As the Russian-Ukrainian war drags on, the chances that Ukrainian refugees and their children, who have been living and working abroad for three years, will not return to economically devastated Ukraine are increasing. 

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 03:30

Russia's Tuapse Refinery Attacked 2nd Time In Days, While Battling Oil Spill Into Black Sea

There's been yet another major attack on Russia's major Black Sea energy hub and port of Tuapse, after just a few days prior a drone wave had unleashed a fire so big it cold be seen from space, given the over 100-mile smoke plume that had spread over the Black Sea. 

In this latest overnight Ukrainian assault reported Monday, the drone attack killed least one person and resulted in more major fires, and now emergency crews are battling their second huge blaze at the site in under a week. There's been a massive oil spill into coastal waters to boot.

Screen

Last week's fires (which began with the last Thursday strike) had only just been extinguished at the Rosneft-owned refinery.

The prior drone wave had damaged residential areas, while this fresh attack has damaged a gas pipeline, a church and two schools - according to regional reports.

"Fire crews and rescue services are currently engaged at every site," Tuapse Mayor Sergei Boyko said, confirming that several locations along the export terminal were struck.

Ukraine's military took responsibility for the attack, as well as hits on two oil depots in nearby Crimea.

As for last week's initial assault, Russian media says it resulted in a significant oil spill into the waters of the Black Sea, with TASS providing the following details:

• An oil product spill into the Black Sea waters occurred in Tuapse after the UAV attack carried out by Ukrainian forces on the night of April 16, according to the regional operational headquarters’ Telegram channel.
• On April 19, an oil slick was detected in the sea on a satellite image.
• The oil slick is located about one and a half miles from the port of Tuapse.
• The area of contamination of the Black Sea with oil products amounts to 10,000 square meters, according to the Telegram channel of the Krasnodar Region operational headquarters.
• Specialists have also contained the oil spill in the Tuapse River following the UAV attack on the night of April 16.
• A total of 750 meters of containment booms and five specialized oil recovery devices have been deployed, and an oil trap has been installed.

These daily and nightly cross-border attacks have however largely slipped from mainstream headline coverage, given their frequency - to the point of being 'routine' (a grim reality).

Rosneft’s Tuapse Oil Depot and Export Facility in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, is currently ablaze, with dozens of tanks seen burning as thick black smoke pours into the sky, following a large-scale drone attack tonight by Ukraine against oil infrastructure across Southern Russia. pic.twitter.com/ZmtlLljYiI

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 20, 2026

Often even when refineries or major infrastructure is hit in either country, the event barely gets coverage in Western media at this point. With the globe's attention focused on the Iran war and blockaded Hormuz Strait, and Russia-Ukraine negotiations having long effectively collapsed, the war in eastern Europe is expected to grind on for some time to come.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 02:45

The US Demanded That Europeans Accelerate Their Transition To 'NATO 3.0'

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

This might be the US’ final warning before it takes drastic action to punish those who continue to reject Trump’s demands.

Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby gave an important speech at mid-April’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group in which he urged the Europeans to step up their transition to something that he described earlier this year as “NATO 3.0”.

As was explained here, “The idea is that NATO should return to focusing on defending itself instead of overextending itself in the Indo-Pacific, West Asia, Eastern Europe, and elsewhere”, and the preceding hyperlinked analysis explains how it aligns with Trump 2.0’s policies.

Circling back to Colby’s speech, he demanded that “Europe must accelerate its assumption of primary responsibility for the conventional defense of the continent”, including arming Ukraine through the “Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List” (PURL) program in which the US plays the most significant role.

To that end, “The need to quickly rebuild European munitions stocks is paramount, as is the need to remove protectionist trade barriers that stifle the continent’s industrial potential.”

He added that “Developing a robust, capable, and integrated European defense industrial base cannot simply be an aspiration, but an absolute pre-requisite for credible deterrence and defense.”

Knowing how obsessed they are with Ukraine, Colby then threw in that “This will be critical to achieving an end to the war in Ukraine, on terms that support an enduring peace.”

He then called for more “deeds and a fundamental change in attitude” from them to “accelerate this transition to a ‘NATO 3.0’”.

Colby concluded that “If Europe rises to this moment – truly embracing primary responsibility for the defense of the continent in line with our vision of a rebalanced ‘NATO 3.0’ – we will all be stronger and more credible in defending our people and our national interests.”

He also ominously warned them midway through his speech that “I underline the criticality of [NATO stepping up to help secure the Strait of Hormuz per Trump’s expectation] for our relationship going forward.”

As was assessed here last month and was just implicitly reaffirmed by Colby, the US might speed up its planned military reprioritization away from Europe to the Americas and the Indo-Pacific if they reject Trump’s request by ending its significant PURL contributions before NATO can replace them. That would facilitate a full Russian victory in Ukraine, or at least spook the Europeans into fearing that this is inevitable if they don’t step up right after he cuts off arms again, thus getting them to do what he wants.

If some members of the bloc refuse to contribute while others do, then Trump might impose his reportedly considered pay-to-play model that was described here, which would remove “dissidents” from decision-making processes and withdraw the US’ Article 5 support from them. These punishments could also be imposed for refusing to spend 5% of GDP on defense. It’s very likely that Colby conveyed these punitive plans to his counterparts on the sidelines of the event even if he only hinted at them.

His urging of them to step up their transition to “NATO 3.0”, which is his brainchild, can therefore be considered the US’ final warning before it takes drastic action to punish those who continue to reject Trump’s demands.

Imposing the pay-to-play model is one form that this could take while cutting off arms to Ukraine once again could be another.

Both could also happen together.

It’s unclear what NATO as a whole will do, let alone its individual members, but it’s obvious that Trump is losing patience with them.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 02:00

Iranian Woman Arrested In LA, Charged With Helping Iranian Regime Sell Drones

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Federal officials arrested an Iranian woman at the Los Angeles International Airport on Saturday night for allegedly brokering weapons for the Iranian regime, officials said Sunday.

(Left) Shamim Mafi is arrested at Los Angeles International Airport for allegedly trafficking arms on behalf of the Iranian regime, on April 18, 2026. (Right) Shamim Mafi. U.S. Attorney’s Office of the Central District Of California

Shamim Mafi, 44, of Woodland Hills, California, is a green card holder, according to U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli in a post on X on Sunday.

Mafi was arrested at the Los Angeles airport “for trafficking arms on behalf of the government of Iran” and was charged in connection to the alleged selling “of drones, bombs, bomb fuses, and millions of rounds of ammunition manufactured by Iran and sold to Sudan,” he said.

“If convicted, she faces a statutory maximum sentence of 20 years in federal prison,” Essayli wrote. “Mafi is an Iranian national who became a lawful permanent resident of the United States in 2016.”

She is scheduled to make her first court appearance on Monday in the U.S. District Court in Los Angeles, he said.

A criminal complaint filed by federal officials in connection to the case said that Mafi allegedly facilitated a contract valued at more than 60 million Euros (around $70 million) for the sale of Iranian-made Mohajer-6 drones manufactured for the regime that were commissioned to be sold to Sudan. She also coordinated a Sudanese delegation to Iran and received around $7 million in payments.

She was also accused of brokering the sale of 55,000 bomb fuses to the Sudanese Ministry of Defense, according to prosecutors, who stated that Mafi did not attempt to obtain a license from the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control for the sales.

“During interviews with U.S. Customs and Border Control officers and the FBI, Mafi acknowledged communicating with an officer of Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security,” prosecutors said.

Mafi also allegedly told the FBI that she could provide “extensive information about the Iranian financial system and money laundering channels” that the Iranian regime uses, according to the complaint.

The arrest was made as the U.S. government increases economic pressure on Iran in the wake of a U.S.-Israeli campaign that included thousands of strikes inside the country since Feb. 28. The Trump administration, which initiated a naval blockade of Iranian ports last week, is sending a team to Pakistan Monday to hold more talks about a possible peace deal.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters at a White House briefing on April 15 that the United States plans to ramp up economic pain on Iran, and said the new moves will be the “financial equivalent” of a bombing campaign.

Bessent said the Trump administration has “told companies, we have told countries that if you are buying Iranian oil, that if Iranian money is sitting in your banks, we are now willing to apply secondary sanctions, which is a very stern measure. And the Iranians should know that this is going to be the financial equivalent of what we saw in the kinetic activities.”

That same day, the Treasury Department said it placed new sanctions on an Iranian oil smuggling network, including around two-dozen individuals, companies, and vessels that were using front companies to evade previous U.S. sanctions.

It’s not clear if Mafi has legal representation.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 23:25

China To Import Record Amount Of US Ethane As Iran War Chokes Off Naphtha, LPG Supplies

One year ago, in the immediate aftermath of Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, there was a flurry of discussion over who is more reliant on whom: the US on Chinese rare earth materials, or China on US ethane output (see "Chinese Plastics Factories Face Mass Closure As US Ethane Supply Evaporates" and "Who Blinks First? China May Exempt Tariffs On US Ethane & Other Goods"). Following the detente in the US-China trade war, that discussion was quietly relegated to the back of the line, however the time has come to bring it up again.

That's because with the Iran war choking off traditional - and crucial - supplies, China is set to import a record volume of US ethane this month as petrochemical producers desperately seek alternative feedstocks for their operations. 

Shipments of US ethane are expected to rise to an all-time high of 800,000 tons in April, according to Chinese consultant JLC, which would be around 60% higher than the monthly average. Some companies can switch to using ethane, helping them offset disruptions to the supply of naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas from the Middle East after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Ethane is a natural gas liquid primarily used to produce ethylene, a key building block for plastics, and China depends almost entirely on the US for supply. The product became a political flashpoint between Beijing and Washington last year after the US tightened export controls during a bitter trade war.

Of course, this means that if Xi plays the rare earth cards in his upcoming summit with Trump, the US president can retaliate by simply shutting down China's plastics industry. 

US ethane has become the preferred alternative for China’s ethylene makers due to stable supply and lower cost, said Shi Linlin, an analyst with JLC. Profits to produce ethylene from ethane was tenfold that of naphtha as of April 15, which has been inflated by crude-linked pricing, JLC said.

A ramp-up of downstream production capacity has also lead to a pickup in demand for the gas. A new ethane unit developed by Wanhua Chemical Group and a multi-feed cracker unit by Sinopec Ineos (Tianjin) Petrochemical Co., have both supported higher imports this year, Shi added.

The International Energy Agency said last week that “petrochemical feedstocks display the most immediate effects of the war by far,” and that supply chains to Asia have been thrown into “disarray.” Japan has been forced to scramble for naphtha, tapping a range of suppliers including from the US and Africa.

In February, just before the war started, more than 50% of China’s naphtha imports and over 40% of its LPG purchases originated from Persian Gulf nations, according to Chinese government data. That supply chain has now been cut off for as long as the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. And while China may have a massive 1.5 billion oil barrels in strategic petroleum storage, it has no naphta or ethane, meaning its plastic industry is suddenly very much exposed. 

“The disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has really highlighted how exposed Asia is to Middle Eastern naphtha,” said Amber Liu, the head of Asia Petchem Analytics at ICIS. This year, naphtha-fed crackers have accounted for about 57% of China’s ethylene capacity, compared with 16% for ethane, she said.

China’s ethane buying spree comes ahead of President Donald Trump’s planned visit to Beijing in mid‑May, and US energy is expected to be part of the agenda. It could feature prominently if the Iran war continues to drag on. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 22:59

Iraq's Ruling Pro-Iran Bloc Races To Choose PM, While US Rejects Main Candidates

Via The Cradle

The US has suspended all funding and security coordination with Iraq, and shipments of dollars the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), until a new Baghdad government acceptable to Washington is formed, Saudi state-owned Al-Hadath reported Monday.

The US is also conditioning continued security cooperation on the disclosure of those involved in the bombing of its embassy, the news channel added. 

President Trump previously with the current Prime Minister of Iraq Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani

Nevertheless, on Monday, the CBI released a statement rejecting the Al-Hadath report. Since 2003, a decision issued by Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) head Paul Bremer has required that all Iraqi oil revenues be paid into an account at the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York, giving the US the ability to control how many US dollars are returned to the CBI.

From that point until today, the Iraqi Ministry of Finance has had to submit funding requests to the US Treasury, which then approves or denies them based on its own criteria.

This monthly transfer of US dollars, flown into Baghdad in pallets of hard cash, determines Iraq's ability to pay for basic needs such as salaries, food, and medicine.

Whenever Washington believes that Iraq is not aligned with US regional goals, including enforcing economic sanctions on Iran, Baghdad's major trading partner and a source of natural gas for electricity production, these fund transfers can be delayed or reduced.

The Coordination Framework (CF), the largest parliamentary bloc of Shia parties, has not yet selected a prime minister nearly five months after securing a plurality in the latest elections.

Former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, viewed by the US as "close" to Iran, was initially chosen to replace incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.

However, while Washington wants to replace Sudani, it also opposes Maliki's return to power.

"Last time Maliki was in power, the Country descended into poverty and total chaos. That should not be allowed to happen again," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform after Maliki emerged as a candidate for prime minister in January.

"Because of his insane policies and ideologies, if elected, the United States of America will no longer help Iraq," he said. If we are not there to help, Iraq has ZERO chance of Success, Prosperity, or Freedom. MAKE IRAQ GREAT AGAIN!"

Maliki was the prime minister in 2014 when ISIS conquered large swathes of Iraq, including the country's second-largest city, Mosul.

Maliki received much of the blame for the loss of nearly one-third of the country's territory to ISIS, which enjoyed covert support from the US military and Iraqi Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani.

The CF, which won 185 of 329 seats in the last election, must nominate a prime minister by April 26.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 22:35

Data Analytics Company Palantir Publishes An Ideological Manifesto

People on the far-left and far-right of the political spectrum rarely find any issue upon which they intersect and share common ground.  However, both sides have an almost religious fear of data analytics company Palantir.  Their reasons might be different but their reactions are similar. 

On the political left, Palantir is seen as Donald Trump's data gestapo.  They hate the company because it has created tools used by DHS and ICE to track down illegal immigrants using welfare and medical subsidies information.  It has also been an active ally in producing strategic analysis for Israel for the war in Gaza and Lebanon.  Leftists argue that Palantir is a "genocidal" corporation and a technological harbinger of "fascism". 

On the other side, libertarians view Palantir as the All Seeing Eye of Sauron - A precursor to total AI surveillance of the population.  They view former CEO Peter Thiel's presence in the Trump Administration as a negative influence.  Other conservatives argue that the company's relationship to Israel and its ties to the Trump Administration are more proof that the Israelis run the world. 

Palantir has recently posted a sort of manifesto, a list of values or principles linked to CEO Alex Karp's book "The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, And The Future Of The West".  Many of the ideas presented run more in line with libertarian or conservative principles, but they also deviate into areas that will surely ruffle feathers and elicit distrust.  At the very least, Palantir presents a platform for debate about the future and the growing influence of digital technology on politics and war.  

Because we get asked a lot.

The Technological Republic, in brief.

1. Silicon Valley owes a moral debt to the country that made its rise possible. The engineering elite of Silicon Valley has an affirmative obligation to participate in the defense of the nation.

2. We must rebel…

— Palantir (@PalantirTech) April 18, 2026

The first thing to note is that Palantir seems to be openly advocating for American exceptionalism, which, in an era of far-left multiculturalism and open borders socialism, is a positive.  One could question how far the company actually wants to take this exceptionalism?  Are we talking about America first, strong national borders and a defined cultural identity?  These things are mentioned positively by Karp in his book. 

But, there are also tinges of a dream; a dream of American empire.  Again, this is a vision that is antithetical to libertarians and leftists alike, for different reasons.  Leftists want to see America (and western culture in general) destroyed and replaced with a new multicultural world order.  Libertarians (and some conservatives) want to see the US cut itself off completely from international affairs and foreign entanglements. 

Leftists are malicious in their goals and libertarians are unrealistic in their goals, but is an American empire really the answer to disrupting and defeating the liberal cabal which is causing so much decay in the west?  Once we get past our initial distaste of the concept of hegemony, the idea deserves a fair debate.  We have already seen the true intentions of the progressive elites; so what should we do to stop them? 

By extension, Karp in his book also addresses the inherent rot of the progressive Utopian vision and rails against DEI, woke ideology and the moral relativism of the political left.  He laments the erosion of a shared American/Western identity due to multiculturalism and "deconstructionist" influences since the 1960s.

He argues, though, that the solution to this weakening of moral and cultural structures requires technological ambition and global leadership.  He calls for a purposeful, unapologetic national project centered on hard power.  This is not going to make woke leftists with notions of a worldwide communist system happy.  It's certainly not going to inspire any approval from small government activists or anarchists. 

The Lord Of The Rings comparisons and "One Ring" memes will be rampant.      

Another interesting takeaway is Palantir's call for "Universal Service" instead of a volunteer military.  This simply sounds like a return to the draft, though Karp's rationale suggests that universal service would also require universal risk.  In other words, if the elites (along with anyone from the general population) can be sent into combat, then maybe there would be far less war in the future and far more respect for the political process.  

How this would be enforced, though, is the key question.  As history shows us, the elitist class has a knack for excusing itself from the risks associated with the wars they often start.    

When examining Palantir's social and political concepts, one is actually reminded of the government depicted in Robert Heinlein's book "Starship Troopers", which is portrayed as almost "fascist" in the 1997 movie but is actually written by Heinlein as a limited representative democracy based on merit.  In other words, only the people who participate in military service and prove their merit are allowed to be citizens, to vote and to run for public office. 

This, of course, would end the idea of inherent rights.  That said, there is ample evidence that some subsections of the population simply do not deserve the right to vote, because of stupidity, suicidal empathy or sheer insanity.  This sounds like a shocking concept today, but make no mistake, this will be a very serious debate in the near future as the liberal order continues to lead the west into self destruction. 

     

Finally, Palantir assigns an almost omnipotent value to Silicon Valley, AI and software's role in the future of society.  From crime reduction to warfare to cultural preservation, Karp asserts that AI will save the west.  This is highly questionable. 

AI has proven to be a valuable tool for data analysis, but the actual industrial, social and scientific benefits have been few and far between.  The research advantages are somewhat defined, but AI's greatest strength is clearly in mass surveillance and potentially in automated weaponry.  These are prospects which almost no American is keen to applaud (we've all read 1984 and seen the "Terminator" films).          

At bottom, Karp and his associates at Palantir might be sincere in their goal of defeating the leftist agenda and preventing the collapse of the west.  But, one has to ask if the ends justify the means?  Is it really possible to wield the power of a technocratic surveillance state for good?  A meritocracy that encompasses the government along with the citizenry is a noble vision, but not if people's basic rights are erased in the process. 

The survival of the nation cannot be the only goal.  By itself, the nation is meaningless.  It must be worthy of survival, and this requires Americans to stay true to the principles that founded it.  Of course, when faced with an existential war in which the enemy operates from within to sabotage the society and destroy its principles through insurgency, bending the rules might also be necessary.                

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 22:10

World's Biggest Physical Oil Trader Warns Of Months Of Price Volatility

By Michael Kern of OilPrice.com

Seasonally lower demand ahead of the peak summer driving season and the continued turbulence in the Middle East could extend the violent oil price swings for months ahead, the top executive of oil trader Gunvor has told the Financial Times.

“It is a little bit of a more challenging, softer period that we need to be careful of,” Gary Pedersen, chairman and CEO of Gunvor Group, told FT in an interview published on Monday.

“Frankly, it could be very choppy,” commented on the oil market Pedersen, who took over the top job at one of the world’s biggest physical oil trading groups after a management buy-out in December 2025.

Before the big shake-up at the group, Gunvor was accused by the U.S. Treasury Department of being a Kremlin puppet and was denied a license to take over the international operations of Russia’s second-largest oil producer Lukoil, which the United States sanctioned last autumn.

The recent violent swings in oil futures prices were partly due to what Gunvor’s new head Pedersen attributed in the FT interview to a “masterclass” in political messaging from U.S. President Donald Trump.

Oil futures prices have sold off sharply several times in recent weeks following various comments from President Trump that a deal with Iran is imminent or the war is “very close to over”.

But oil futures markets haven’t fully priced in the major disruption to physical supply that has crashed with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the severely constrained Middle Eastern crude and fuel supply.

Physical crude supplies remain very tight as buyers across the world scramble for replacement of the oil from the Middle East, Gunvor’s Pedersen told FT.

In a sign that buyers are rushing to lock in supply, empty supertankers have left Asia en route to the U.S. via the Cape of Good Hope in one of the biggest queues of vessels ever seen at sea—ships sent to load U.S. crude.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 21:45

Canada's Prime Minister Doubles Down On Militant Anti-US Rhetoric

Well before Mark Carney was elected as Canada's Prime Minister in the wake of numerous scandals surrounding Justin Trudeau, critics noted that the candidate represented a far greater threat to Canada's freedom largely because he is far more devious than Trudeau ever was. 

Carney is a central banker and high level World Economic Forum globalist well acquainted with the liberal "Reset" agenda, and it is no mistake that he has taken control of Canada at a time when European elites are pushing for an economic and geopolitical separation from the US.  The plan is obvious - To isolate the US in an effort to stop the spread of conservative and nationalist movements throughout the west.

In other words, the globalists/leftists are trying to build a new empire in a last-ditched scramble to prevent their liberal order from fading away.  Carney pretends as if they are breaking from the old system and starting something new by "calling out" the US.  In reality, it was the US that broke from the liberal system and refused to "go along to get along". 

It was the US that refused to conform to the multicultural agenda, open borders, ESG and DEI politics, the transgender cult and the indoctrination of children with socialist and LGBT ideology, not to mention the fact that so many foreign nations have been feeding off US taxpayer dollars for decades through institutions like USAID.

Vast numbers of their own citizens are rebelling against liberal governments.  Movements to stop the multicultural agenda and mass immigration are gaining momentum. Right-wing political parties are quickly growing, inspired by conservative success against the woke cult in the US.   

The liberals are circling the wagons, and it would seem that Canada is meant to play a key role in this "new order".  Prime Minister Mark Carney has been escalating his anti-US rhetoric since he entered office while threatening to build closer economic partnerships with hostile foreign entities like the CCP in China. 

As we asked after the Liberal Convention in Montreal, are Canadians being primed for an open conflict with the US?  The rhetoric coming from the nation's liberal government is sounding increasingly aggressive, and not just in terms of economic separation.  In his latest "address to The nation", Carney doubled down on his militant position, citing the history of Canada (including the War of 1812) as an ongoing battle against a "predatory" US.

It's fascinating to see a globalist like Carney try to paint the US defense against European influences as if it this was an act of war against Canada (which did not become a country until 1867).  The war of 1812 was instigated by the British Empire after their Royal Navy interfered with US trade, stopping American merchant vessels on the high seas and kidnapping men they claimed were British subjects.  They then forced these American citizens to fight in their war against the French.

Estimates of kidnapped Americans range from 9,000–15,000 between 1793 and 1812. The 1807 Chesapeake-Leopard affair, where a British warship fired on a U.S. Navy frigate and seized sailors, nearly sparked war at the time and became a major flashpoint.  Finally, the British engaged in arming and instigating an insurgency among the native Indians in the Great Lakes region in order to terrorize US settlements. 

Canada was a controlled region of the elitist empire back then, just as it is today.

There is no US invasion of Canada today, but Carney is painting a narrative as if this is an imminent threat.  US tariffs have shaken Canada to its core.  Over 75% of the country's exports are sold in US markets.  Their trade proximity made Canada one of the wealthiest nations in the world per capita and gave them one of the richest middle class populations in 2014-2015.  However, extreme-left wing policies have ruined Canada's economic advantage. 

This was not the Trump Administration's doing, it was their own doing.  Trump's opposition to Canada is partly economic (Trump wants more trade parity), but it is also predominantly ideological.  They are, essentially, a woke/globalist enclave looming on the US border and it is clear that they intend to act as a foothold for the elites in North America. 

Carney's rhetoric only reinforces the suspicion that there is an agenda afoot to isolate the US.  The problem is that Canada is already suffering from an unprecedented economic crisis, with inflation, high taxes and housing shortages crushing their middle class.  The threat is so great that provinces like Alberta are seriously considering secession.  Furthermore, there is no trade network on Earth that can possibly replace the highly lucrative arrangement Canada has had with the US. 

The Prime Minister's efforts to stoke "national unity" among Canadians by painting the US as the "big bad wolf" is actually setting them up for disaster.   

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 21:20

USDA, US Army Break Ground On Texas Facility To Combat Flesh-Eating Parasite Spread

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

U.S. officials broke ground for a New World Screwworm (NWS) sterile fly production facility in Texas to combat the flesh-eating parasites, which have spread across Mexico and pose a significant threat to America’s livestock, wildlife, and public health.

Located in Moore Air Base, Edinburg, the facility “is being built with an aggressive timeline designed to quickly expand the nation’s sterile fly production capacity,” the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in an April 17 statement.

Initial operations are set to start from November 2027, hitting production of 100 million sterile flies per week. “Construction continues immediately beyond initial operations to scale full production capacity to 300 million sterile flies per week,” the department added.

NWS female flies lay eggs on orifices or wounds of warm-blooded animals, which later hatch into larvae. The larva burrows deep into wounds, feeding on the host’s flesh.

The wound grows larger as more eggs are hatched and more larvae feed into the flesh, with the animal eventually dying. A single female fly can lay up to 3,000 eggs in its lifetime. Large swarms of the parasites coming in from Mexico pose a significant threat to America’s livestock industry.

Currently, the closest active cases to the U.S.-Mexico border have been reported in the Mexican state of Nuevo Leon, located less than 70 miles from the border.

Swarms of NWS flies can be countered by releasing sterile male flies into the group. When male flies mate with females, they end up laying unfertilized eggs. Over time, the swarm diminishes, warding off the threat.

In its recent statement, USDA said it already produces sterile flies at a facility in Panama that outputs 100 million insects per week. Moreover, the agency has invested $21 million into a Mexican facility, which is set to become operational this summer.

The Moore Air Base facility, with its maximum output of 300 million sterile flies per week, boosts America’s efforts to counter the NWS threat.

A worker handles a tray with Mediterranean fruit flies inside a bio-factory as Mexico's government reconditions a plant to become the new sterile screwworm fly facility, part of the country's effort to eradicate the flesh-eating parasite, in Metapa de Dominguez, Mexico, on Oct. 17, 2025. Daniel Becerril/Reuters

The groundbreaking ceremony was led by Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins, and commanding general of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Lieutenant General William H. “Butch” Graham. USDA and USACE have cut red tape, secured expedited procurement, and eliminated other barriers to get the facility built.

“Breaking ground on this facility marks a major investment in safeguarding America’s livestock and the producers who feed this nation. This puts NWS sterile fly production in American hands, so we do not have to rely on other countries for the best offensive measure to push screwworm away from our borders,” Rollins said.

“The New World Screwworm threatens the health of our herds, the stability of rural economies, and the resilience of our supply chain. President Trump and his entire cabinet is committed to leveraging every resource necessary to contain this pest, protect American agriculture, and ensure the long-term security of our food supply chain.”

As of April 2, the United States has imposed restrictions on the import of live animals—cattle, horses, and bison—from Mexico due to NWS parasites.

In addition to animals, NWS is also known to infect humans in rare cases.

According to an April 14 report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, multiple such cases have been reported from outside the United States.

“In 2023, Panama and Costa Rica identified an outbreak of NWS. Since that time, all countries in Central America and Mexico, where NWS was previously controlled, have identified cases in animals and people,” CDC said.

“As of April 14, 2026, these countries have reported nearly 168,000 NWS cases in animals and more than 1,700 cases in people.”

As for the United States, one confirmed NWS infection was found in a person who returned to the country from El Salvador.

New World Screwworm infection in humans is generally non-fatal if discovered early and treated.

However, if not caught early and treated, infestations can lead to extensive tissue damage and long-lasting severe pain in the case of nerve damage. Moreover, if the larvae burrow into vital organs, it can result in complications.

Symptoms in humans include pain, wound bleeding, foul-smelling odor around the infected site, and lack of natural healing, with the individual prone to sense the movement of larvae in the wounded area.

The CDC clarified that NWS flies have not been detected in the United States and that there is “no immediate risk of infestation to people.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 20:55

Beyond Chips: U.S. And China Enter Robotaxi Race As Physical AI Emerges 

Last week, Goldman analysts led by Mark Delaney laid out a detailed roadmap for clients on how autonomous vehicles could reshape America's highways through the 2030s, with a particular focus on "the impact of AI on profit pools."

In a separate report, Goldman analysts led by Allen Chang covered the rapid expansion of China's robotaxi fleet, highlighting how both superpowers now appear to be locked in a race to automate roads and highways. 

"We expect a strong ramp up of robotaxis in China, with the robotaxi fleet in China growing from 5k in 2025 to 14k in 2026E (+195% YoY)," Chang began the note.

He pointed out that this update on China's robotaxi and robotruck fleet indicates that "Commercialization is speeding up, with several players achieving city-level break-even."

"We are raising our robotaxi forecasts for 2025-2035E by 7%-25%. By 2035E, robotaxis should account for 36% of all ride-sharing vehicles," Chang said.

The report also introduces forecasts for overseas robotaxi and robotruck markets, highlighting international expansion as an increasingly important revenue driver for Chinese companies, including WeRide, Pony AI, and Baidu.

Chang forecasts that robotrucks could emerge as a long-term growth market, with China's fleet rising from 8,000 in 2026 to 760,000 by 2035.

The overall outlook for AV fleets in China suggests rapid deployment, growing fleet density, and broader global scaling. The analyst noted their stock plays on this emerging trend: robotaxi and robotruck players include WeRide (Initiation), Pony AI, Didi, and Baidu.

Circling back to Goldman analyst Delaney's report on the U.S. robotaxi market last week. He noted that the market is set to top $19 billion by 2030, up from a prior forecast of $7 billion, and continue rising to $48 billion by 2035.

Taken together, the two reports suggest the AI race is no longer confined to data centers and chip stacks. It is now moving into the physical world, where autonomous vehicles, robotaxis, and AI-powered freight networks are emerging as the next major frontier between the two superpowers. On a side note, these AI-powered vehicles can be dual-use and will eventually end up on modern battlefields.

Professional subscribers can read the full China Robotaxi and US Robotaxi notes at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 20:30

The Best Money Advice Of All Time

Authored by Ellen Chang, Kerri Anne Renzulli, and Chris Taylor via Kiplinger’s Personal Finance,

Financial advice is everywhere these days. In the digital age, you can find insights and tips about how best to save, invest, and manage your money from adviser and financial services websites; YouTube, TikTok, and other social media platforms; podcasts, newsletters, and Substacks; and your 401(k) provider, among other outlets.

The challenge is figuring out the very best advice you could get for your circumstances. Dreamstime/TCA

Then there are all the traditional sources, such as your financial planner, newspapers and magazines, and even your dear Uncle Lou, who always has a money tip or two to dispense. (Yes, despite all the new founts of financial wisdom, Americans are still more likely to turn to family and friends for money advice than any other resource, a recent Gallup survey found.)

The challenge, of course, is figuring out whether any of the many financial recommendations you come across are actually the very best advice you could get for your circumstances. This is guidance that will not only help you manage your money wisely, but also provide perspective to keep you grounded, whatever opportunities, obstacles or challenges life throws your way.

That’s why we asked a diverse group of 35 top financial experts—acclaimed investors, advisers, money managers, economists, influencers and more—to share their very best advice. The essential question we put to them: Of all the many recommendations or insights about money you’ve given or received, what are the best, most meaningful or most impactful tips you want to pass along?

Their answers include not just practical suggestions on how to manage your money, but also insights that help put money and how we feel about it in perspective. We hope you find their responses as smart and useful—and, at times, surprising, moving and funny—as we did. Managing Money Stick With the Basics “There’s no shortcut or hack, no easy button, no Amazon for your money that’s going to show up on your porch on Tuesday. You’ve got to do the work and do the journey: Live on less than you make. Invest regularly. Stay out of debt. It’s hard—that’s the bad news. The good news is that 100 percent of the time, it works.” — Dave Ramsey, founder and CEO of Ramsey Solutions, cohost of “The Ramsey Show,” and author of “The Total Money Makeover” and other books Be Your Own Best Advocate “You don’t get what you deserve, you get what you negotiate. I’m not sure who told me this or where I heard it, but this insight has been living rent-free in my head for the past 25 years. It has led me to never assume I’m just going to be handed a raise, a financial break or a career opportunity. You have to work for it, be strategic and be your biggest advocate. It won’t always work, but you greatly increase your chances of success.” — Farnoosh Torabi, host of the “So Money” podcast and author of the book “A Healthy State of Panic” Get Help, When and as You Need It “Money is a team sport. Many people think they have to navigate their finances all by themselves, or magically know everything just because they’re an adult. The older I’ve gotten, the more I realize there’s no way I can possibly know everything. So I ask a tax person about taxes—just like if I had something wrong with my eyes, I would go to an ophthalmologist.” — Tiffany Aliche, founder of The Budgetnista, a personal finance education company, and author of “Get Good With Money” Even ‘Good’ Debt Can Be Bad “Be wary about taking on debt, even so-called ‘good debt.’ It’s a slow killer of financial dreams. Everyone talks about mortgages and student loans like they’re investments in your future, but any debt becomes bad debt when it’s excessive or you don’t have a clear payoff strategy.” — Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, known as The Money Coach, is the author of “Bounce Back: The Ultimate Guide to Financial Resilience and founder of the Financial Influencer Network” Let Your Values Be Your Guide “Align your life and money so your money has assignments. Do the mindful work of discovering what you value most, then be intentional, strategic and systematic about where your money goes. You end up investing in more than markets, but also in meaning. When you manage your money holistically with your life, you stick to a financial life plan that helps you flourish.” — Dr. Preston Cherry, certified financial planner and founder, Concurrent Wealth Management; author of “Wealth in the Key of Life” Think About the Broad Impact When You Make Money Decisions “Think of money as a tool to invest in all aspects of your life. Financial planning is not just about numbers in your investment portfolio. It’s also about your relationships, your health, or even your ability to hire tutors for your kids. Bring financial decisions down to the level of how they will impact your everyday personal life, and use money as a tool to create a better quality of life.” — Louis Barajas, CFP, and cofounder and CEO of International Private Wealth Advisors; author of “My Street Money” Look Past the Math “Sometimes I hear advice dispensed that makes good financial sense but doesn’t really consider a person’s peace of mind. For instance: Don’t pay off your mortgage early; if you can earn a higher rate of return on your money, then use it to invest instead. I completely understand the math behind that, but what people underestimate when dispensing that sort of one-size-fits-all wisdom is the peace-of-mind benefits people gain from being debt-free.” — Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning for Morningstar and author of “How to Retire” Make Good Habits Automatic “People give too much advice, like telling people to spend less, that relies on motivation and has a negative connotation, like you are somehow the problem. I prefer to create automatic systems so that doing the right thing with your money is the default. For example, my entire paycheck does not go directly to my checking account; I’ve signed up in advance to parse money out to my different accounts for retirement, my emergency fund and paying my bills. Then the balance goes into my checking account.” — Megan McCoy, certified financial therapist and acting personal financial planning program chair, Kansas State University Marry Wisely “This is unconventional, but my best advice is to pick the right life partner. That’s a decision you have to live with for the vast majority of your life, and you’re financially tied to that person. That person could be your biggest cheerleader, or they could hold you back. Choosing that person has a cascading effect over the rest of your life. If your partner is smart and savvy, you can hit your goals faster as a duo. But if they don’t respect their own finances, you’re going to have to climb twice as hard.” — Vivian Tu, author, founder and CEO of Your Rich BFF and chief of financial empowerment at SoFi Family Finance Be Open About Money “It’s super important for partners to be honest with each other and share everything about their finances. A lot of couples have one personality who is more financially aware and one who is happy to let the other person take care of everything. But that can get dangerous when there is a death, disability or divorce. The person who didn’t do much financially may not even know what they own or where their assets are. I handle most of the investment decisions in my marriage, while my husband handles the bills, but we do an ‘audit’ once a year, where we review everything and make sure we both can log in to all our accounts. So, neither of us is living blindly, and we know how to do something the other does, if we need to.” — Carolyn McClanahan, CFP and founder of Life Planning Partners Don’t Keep Your Children’s Inheritance a Secret “You shouldn’t be a lottery to your kids. It’s good for your children or heirs to know what money they’re going to get from you. One of the worst things you can do to a young or middle-age adult is to have them wonder what they’re going to receive, because then they can’t do their own financial planning.” — Teresa Ghilarducci, labor economist and retirement security expert, professor at The New School for Social Research and author of “How to Retire with Enough Money” Give With a Warm Hand “With people living close to 100 years these days, it might not be the best practice to wait until death to leave an inheritance to your kids, who may be in their seventies and retired at that point. Maybe the best thing you could do for your children and grandchildren is to give some of that money to the parents when that baby’s first born. Then the parents have more resources to either get good day care or go to part-time work themselves to be able to invest more in these little ones when they really need it.” — Laura Carstensen, founding director of the Stanford Center on Longevity and psychology professor at Stanford University Explain Your Financial Choices “Growing up, we didn’t talk about money in our household. If there was enough money, our parents didn’t talk about it. If there wasn’t, they would fuss and argue. With my own children, who are 11 and 15, I do the opposite; we talk about money in age-appropriate ways so they understand how and why we choose to spend our money. We almost never go out to eat, for example, so we can spend our money on travel and education, which are our priorities.” — H. Jude Boudreaux, a CFP and senior financial planner and partner at The Planning Center in New Orleans Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 20:05