Aggregator

The bet365 bonus code gets a $200 bonus for Sabres vs. Canadiens Game 5 with $10 bets.

The shipboard hantavirus outbreak is a dire warning: A mobile world makes infection prevention — in the travel industry and in hospitals — more vital than ever. 

Nemesis series co-creators Courtney A. Kemp and Tani Marole open up about their thrilling new heist series in a tell-all Q&A.

The eldest Consuelos child works as a producer on Summer House.

President Trump is on the ground in Beijing meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping for high-stakes talks on Iran, trade, and global security. The outcome could shape relations between the world’s two biggest powers. Meanwhile, a CIA whistleblower is making explosive claims that Dr. Anthony Fauci misled investigators about the origins of COVID-19.

Rate Hikes Are Coming...

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

What a week for macroeconomic data. We got two horrific datapoints this week that, when combined with some key comments from days ago, seem to be pushing the Fed closer to rate hikes than they’ve been in a long while.

The case for rate hikes is no longer some fringe tail risk like it felt it was a year ago as inflation numbers (though still high) appeared to be coming down.

For most of last year, markets were operating under a very clean narrative that inflation would continue cooling, growth would gradually slow, and the Federal Reserve would eventually be in position to cut rates further. That framework is starting to crack.

Regardless of whether investors were focused on a potentially more dovish policy direction under figures like Kevin Warsh or Stephen Miran, the Fed ultimately cannot sidestep hard inflation data. If price pressures are clearly reaccelerating, policymakers risk losing massive credibility if they continue signaling easing while inflation moves in the opposite direction.

The market is being forced to confront that reality in real time. And this chart from Charlie Bilello yesterday shows exactly what that reality looks like: inflation got away from the Fed in 2020, and we haven’t been anywhere near close to returning it toward the baseline trend we have tried to revert to. In fact, the chart shows the delta between the 2% baseline target and current inflation as widening.

That pressure intensified today after a major upside surprise in wholesale inflation.

The latest producer price index report showed wholesale prices rose 1.4% in April, nearly triple expectations of 0.5% and well above March’s upwardly revised 0.7% increase. On an annual basis, producer prices climbed 6%, marking the biggest increase since December 2022.

This matters because producer prices often serve as an early warning signal for future consumer inflation. Rising input costs eventually work their way through supply chains and show up in prices paid by households. The bigger issue is that this increasingly looks like something broader than a temporary energy spike. Pipeline inflation is building again at a time when the Fed had been hoping for sustained disinflation.

Meanwhile as CNBC noted earlier in the week that the CPI was also still coming in hotter than expected — which was already hot at 3.8%. Don’t lose sight of the fact that the Fed’s target is 2%, so this is nearly double what the Central Bank is gunning for:

The consumer price index rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the month, putting the one-year pace at 3.8%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly rate was as forecast, but the annual rate was 0.1 percentage point above the Dow Jones consensus.

As CNBC noted, following the hotter consumer inflation report earlier this week, traders sharply reduced expectations for rate cuts and began pricing in the possibility that the Fed’s next move could actually be higher. According to CME FedWatch data cited by CNBC, markets were pricing roughly a 37% probability of a rate hike before year end.

That is a dramatic reversal from the dominant consensus just weeks ago, when the conversation centered almost entirely around when cuts would begin.

What makes this shift even more significant is that Fed officials themselves are no longer trying to shut down the possibility of tighter policy. Austan Goolsbee said last week in an interview with Bloomberg that all options remain on the table and explicitly pushed back on the idea that cuts are the only possible path forward. He said he does not see how anyone can look at current conditions and assume the only conceivable outcome is lower rates.

He also made clear that his concerns extend beyond energy and include broader inflation pressures that could prove more persistent. That is an important signal because central bankers tend to avoid discussing hikes unless they believe the risk is becoming materially more realistic.

🔥 80% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 80% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: Get 80% off forever

The broader takeaway is that markets may still be underestimating how quickly the macro narrative can shift. The dominant trade had been built around lower inflation, lower rates, and a soft landing. That assumption now faces growing pressure from rising producer prices, elevated inflation expectations, persistent energy shocks, and increasingly hawkish market pricing. If inflation remains hot for another month or two, the conversation may move beyond higher for longer and toward the possibility that the next move from the Federal Reserve is another hike.

That would represent a major regime change for markets that have spent months positioning for the exact opposite outcome.

I’ve been saying for months that the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place, and now that reality is getting harder to spin away with carefully worded press conferences and endless “data dependent” talking points. If they raise rates into this inflation reacceleration, they risk detonating the parts of the economy that have only survived because money was essentially free for years. The most speculative and overleveraged corners get hit first. Bitcoin and broader crypto would likely get smoked, subprime auto lending’s implosion accelerates, and the ever growing Private Credit shit officially hits the fan.

But if the Fed backs off because markets throw a tantrum and stocks forget how to go up for three consecutive weeks, they’ll be right back to printing money and flooding the system with liquidity to save everyone from the consequences of their own leverage. And what does more printing solve when inflation is already running hot? Absolutely nothing, except ensuring you get another inflation wave later that’s even harder to contain. That’s the trap. Raise rates and break the economy. Print money and make inflation worse.

Years of kicking the can down the road have left the Fed with two terrible choices, and now the bill is showing up right on schedule. Turns out “we can have permanently elevated asset prices, endless stimulus, and no consequences” was not actually a serious economic strategy. Who would have thought?

Now read:

• Why I Avoid Tech Investments...Even During A Tech Boom: Harris Kupperman
• The Coming Gamma Nightmare
• 5 Stocks I'm Still Keeping An Eye On
• Do the Rich Pay Their “Fair Share” of Taxes?
• Another Real Crisis Hiding Behind Record Highs

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/14/2026 - 07:45

It is strange how little that designation has meant during the Jalen Brunson era.

This kind of violence won’t be tolerated, and our office will work to make sure those responsible are held accountable to the fullest extent of the law," the sheriff said.

Word that inflation hit 3.8% last month is bad news, but not grim: The main cause is obvious, and it won’t last. It’s the halt on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which plainly won’t last much longer. So our cautious optimism is entirely different from all that Biden-years talk about inflation being “transitory.”...

Rock on.

The World Cup final will feature a star-studded halftime show headlined by Madonna, Shakira and boy-band BTS.

Europe's Dependence On US LNG Set To Surge

By Irina Slav of OilPrice.com

The European Union’s dependence on liquefied natural gas from the United States is set to rise significantly, reaching 80% of all LNG imports in two years, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis has warned.

In a report cited by Reuters, IEEFA noted that the European Union already imports significant volumes of U.S. liquefied gas, creating a potentially risky dependence on a single supplier.

LNG imports from the United States into the EU accounted for 58% of overall LNG imports.

Yet this dependence is only going to increase in the coming years, the outlet said, recommending more wind, solar, and heat pumps as an alternative.

This year, the United States will become the European Union’s biggest supplier of liquefied gas, even as the bloc also gobbles up every ton of Russian LNG it can buy ahead of the 2027 ban on Russian energy imports.

The motivation for that ban, in addition to punishment for the war in Ukraine, has been to avoid overwhelming dependence on a single energy supplier, which is what the EU is currently doing with the U.S.

Energy commodities are a big part of the trade deal signed last year by President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

The deal featured a commitment on the part of the EU to buy $750 billion worth of U.S. energy commodities over a period of three years.

The European Parliament earlier this year signaled it has problems with the deal, which angered the U.S. president, and he threatened to hike tariffs on EU goods unless the bloc signs the deal as is.

The arrangement elevated American LNG, oil, and refined fuels in Europe’s energy supply mix.

The actual supply of so many energy commodities, however, would be physically - and financially - challenging both for the suppliers and the buyers.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/14/2026 - 07:20

After eight seasons, four coaches, one championship and the arrival of Luka Doncic, it may finally be time for LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers to go their separate ways.

Bet $20, Get $200 in Bonus Bets with Fanatics Sportsbook with promo code NYPOST.

The Lakers would be lucky to re-sign LeBron James. 

"I was like, I will get detained at the border and I will be put in ICE detention if I go."

"I was like, I will get detained at the border and I will be put in ICE detention if I go."

Why UBS Is Bullish On Take-Two Ahead Of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch

UBS analysts reiterated that Take-Two Interactive is their top U.S. gaming pick, with the highly anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto VI still scheduled for early November.

"We recently framed TTWO as our top pick in the U.S. interactive gaming space," analyst Christopher Schoell told clients.

Schoell said, "Concerns around AI and the potential for a new wave of content to hit the market/compete for engagement have weighed on the sector," adding, "We believe the fears for TTWO are overdone and expect new GTA VI announcements, trailers, and gameplay to drive sentiment, while industry consolidation highlights TTWO's potential strategic value as the remaining publicly traded U.S. AAA developer."

Schoell expects TTWO to guide to a record fiscal 2027, with $9 billion in bookings, including about $2 billion in GTA VI full-game sales.

Schoell and his team noted, "We build on our conviction that a strong GTA VI launch in the near term, coupled with expanding RCS and in-game monetization, will likely drive more stable long-term economic returns."

Here's that bullish framework:

• Turning Hits into Recurring Cash Flows: In the mid-2010s with the launch and scaling of GTA Online and NBA 2K RCS, TTWO successfully evolved its CFROI (Cash Flow Return on Investment) profile from extreme volatility to high and stable economic returns. Strong historical execution supports our view of a successful mix shift to higher margin RCS revenues ahead and continued CFROI expansion.

• How Big Could GTA VI Be? TTWO's CFROI Forecast vs Past Blockbusters: Leveraging the breadth of the HOLT framework, we compare TTWO's forecasted CFROI in the launch year to CFROI levels in other blockbuster game launches. Notably, we believe the launch of GTA VI will push CFROI to one of the highest levels we've seen compared to historical game launches.

• Framing Long-Term Market Expectations: In HOLT's default valuation framework, TTWO has around 80% potential upside and market expectations appear muted vs forecasts. TTWO has earned a median CFROI level of 13% the last 10 years in conjunction with a high rate of reinvestment, and the GTA VI launch should increase CFROI to near all-time high levels. Despite this, long-term market expectations imply CFROI will fade to 9%, below its historical median. We see this as a relatively low bar to clear given a bookings mix shift to higher margin RCS revenue, likely supported by a steady cadence of content releases for the established GTA VI player base long-term.

Schoell offered clients his expectations ahead of earnings and guidance next Thursday:

As highlighted in our recent earnings preview, we expect TTWO's F4Q results to come in at the high-end of guidance (company reporting May 21). The main focus however will be the initial F27 outlook. We expect management to guide to a record year alongside GTA VI's release, where our prior survey work points to significant pent up demand and pricing power. Similar to precedent, we believe initial guidance could be conservative, setting up for a beat and raise narrative. This was the case for both GTA V (Fiscal 2014) and RDR II (Fiscal 2019), when the company outperformed its initial bookings outlook by several hundred million. We look for $9.0B of bookings in F27, incl. $2.0B of full game sales for GTA VI. Our est. assumes higher amort and S&M alongside GTA's release, albeit visibility into magnitude is limited and could drive variability to NT EPS (UBSe $6.16/$11.47 of Adj. EPS in F27/F28). We recently published an interactive model which allows investors to input their own unit/pricing assumptions for GTA VI and underlying PC/console/mobile growth.

Shares peaked in late 2025 at around $260 and have since tumbled to $190. Shares are currently clawing back some of those losses.

UBS maintains a Buy rating and a $300 price target, implying about 33% upside from Wednesday's levels.

Professional subscribers can read the full TTWO/GTA VI note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/14/2026 - 06:55

A New York accountant was brutally murdered hours into her Jamaican birthday vacation as chilling messages to her family revealed the horrific danger she faced in her final moments and her husband was named a person of interest.

Chilling new interrogation video shows the moment a trans killer calmly confessed to executing her parents after her mom tried to thwart her gender transition surgery.