Robert Kagan, one of the United States’ most prominent neoconservative voices and a long-time pro-Israel hawk, has warned that Washington is heading towards "total defeat" in its war on Iran - a setback he says “can neither be repaired nor ignored”.
Writing in The Atlantic, Kagan said the damage inflicted by the conflict cannot be reversed. "There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done," he concluded bleakly.
AFP via Getty ImagesKagan, who co-founded the neoconservative think tank Project for the New American Century in 1997, helped shape a political current that pushed the US to project military power globally.
That doctrine culminated in the 2003 invasion of Iraq and deeply influenced the George W. Bush administration.
He remained closely tied to that policy ecosystem, including through his wife, Victoria Nuland, who served as an advisor to the arch neoconservative Vice President Dick Cheney. For years, Kagan championed US interventionism - making his stark warning about the current war all the more striking.
In his analysis, Kagan argued that control over the Strait of Hormuz has fundamentally shifted the balance of power.
"With control of the strait, Iran emerges as the key player in the region and one of the key players in the world," Kagan noted.
He added that the war has not only strengthened rivals such as China and Russia but has also eroded Washington’s global standing.
"Far from demonstrating American prowess, as supporters of the war have repeatedly claimed, the conflict has revealed an America that is unreliable and incapable of finishing what it started. That is going to set off a chain reaction around the world as friends and foes adjust to America's failure," he said.
'Disastrous for Israel'Kagan warned that US President Donald Trump now has limited options to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting Washington may have exhausted its leverage.
He compared the scale of the current crisis to some of the most damaging moments in US military history, including the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 and the Vietnam War. Unlike those conflicts, he argued, the United States may not be able to recover from the consequences this time.
"Defeat for the United States, therefore, is not only possible but likely," he stressed.
Kagan said Iran’s ability to counter US pressure leaves Washington with few viable paths forward without triggering severe damage to Gulf economies and the wider global system. "If this isn’t checkmate, it’s close," he added.
He also stressed that Tehran is unlikely to relinquish its grip over the Strait of Hormuz, which he described as a powerful strategic lever.
"Iran cannot afford to let the strait go, no matter how good a deal it thought it could get. For one thing, how reliable is any deal with Trump?"
Below: a genuinely incredible scene...
The Iran war is so bad that PNAC co-founder Robert Kagan now describes Israel as a strategic liability leading the US into a quagmire
“It’s kind of like saying South Vietnam was a great ally in the fight against North Vietnam.”
Bill Kristol nods alongpic.twitter.com/qMfdmmEPMh
In a separate interview with PBS, Kagan extended his warning to Israel, arguing that the war could backfire on one of Washington’s closest allies.
"This war has the potential of ending in a very disastrous way for Israel precisely because the leverage in the region and the influence in the region is going to shift away from the United States and Israel and toward Iran and its supporters."
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 23:25Another mass casualty event has occurred in Lebanon, as national media says that on Wednesday eight people died, including two children, when Israeli strikes targeted cars on a highway south of Beirut.
Israeli media itself described that "The three separate airstrikes were carried out well beyond the main theater of conflict in the south, targeting vehicles on the coastal highway in an area around 20 kilometers (12 miles) south of Beirut, security sources said." The attack was reportedly carried out by drones.
EPA image"Images showed a burnt-out car in the middle of the road and rescuers carrying a body at one of the sites, near Jiyeh," Times of Israel continues. "On Saturday, similar strikes targeted two other cars in the same area."
There was no immediate comment or explanation from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in wake of the bombings. Photographs of bombed-out and charred cars have widely circulated in the aftermath.
Hezbollah has meanwhile remained opposed to formal talks between the Israeli and Lebanese governments, with the Iran-backed Shia paramilitary group not participating.
The next round of negotiations are expected in Washington on Thursday, and they will be overseen by the State Department.
From Israel's perspective, this means the ceasefire doesn't extend to Hezbollah, and it currently has an IDF ground force inside southern Lebanon, amid tit-for-tat drone and missile strikes.
According to the latest on evacuation orders in the south, Al Jazeera writes:
On Wednesday morning, the Israeli military issued forced displacement orders for the residents of Meiss el-Jabal, Yanouh, Burj Shemali, Hula, Debl and Aabbasiyyeh, warning that it will soon act against these six southern Lebanese villages “forcefully”.
Anyone who remains “endangers their life,” the military said, warning residents to move at least 1,000 metres (0.6 miles) away to “open areas”.
At least seven villages in the area have been subject to evacuation order, but Lebanese officials have complained that in some cases civilian areas are hit which were previously deemed safe zones.
The death toll continues to mount, per the same report:
On Tuesday, 13 people were killed in attacks on towns in the south, including two Lebanese Civil Defence paramedics, Hussein Jaber and Ahmad Noura, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health.
The ministry reported that at least 380 people have been killed during the truce, bringing the total death toll since the Israeli invasion and bombardment began on March 2 to more than 2,800.
Jiyeh coastal road, south of Beirut:
Israel targets a car on the Jiyeh coastal road, south of Beirut
Follow https://t.co/B3zXG73Jym pic.twitter.com/LobCfOs4hz
Iran has meanwhile insisted that the Lebanon conflict be part of any final ceasefire deal between Tehran and Washington. However, talks are at a standstill, with Iran having issued five conditions as a basis for the resumption of talks.
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 23:00