Aggregator
What is a ‘backyard ultra’? The endurance race with no finish line that can last for days and hundreds of miles
IEA's Birol Says "Ready To Act" If Energy Shock Worsens As US Offers 40 Million-Barrel SPR Lifeline
Summary:
- US DoE Offers 40 Million Barrels From SPR
- IEA Head Says SPR On Standby If Energy Crisis Deepens
- EU Eyes Methane Rule Retreat As Energy Crisis Deepens; IEA Floats Another Emergency Oil Dump
Brent crude futures moved lower to $103.90 a barrel, supported by continued diplomatic efforts and the resumption of flows through Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. Kpler data from the weekend showed that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz reached 13 million barrels a day, about two-thirds of the prewar level.
Courtesy of Commodity Context ...
Speaking to reporters at a meeting of EU energy ministers in Dublin, IEA head Fatih Birol said another emergency SPR dump remains on standby should the energy crisis become "much bigger" and more prolonged.
Birol said one-third of the 400 million-barrel release announced in March, shortly after the US-Iran conflict erupted, has yet to hit the market. He said around 80% of overall stocks remain available.
"If there is a need, and if our member countries do agree with it, we are ready to act in order to address current and future market challenges," he said.
A separate Bloomberg News report said the US Energy Department requested an exchange of up to 40 million barrels of oil from the SPR. The release is part of a much larger plan to dump 172 million barrels of oil from the SPR onto the market to tame crude prices amid supply disruptions at the Hormuz chokepoint.
Such a drawdown would put the SPR at levels not seen since the early 1980s. The current level stands at around 285 million barrels.
Goldman Energy analyst Nikhil Bhandari warned last week that an ongoing global refining crisis could strain the fuel market well into 2027 (read the report).
EU Eyes Methane Rule Retreat As Energy Crisis Deepens; IEA Floats Another Emergency Oil DumpThe European Union is considering postponing methane emissions requirements for imported oil and gas to help boost energy supplies, with the Northern Hemisphere winter just months away. Energy prices in the bloc are already soaring, and uncomfortably low supplies of diesel and natural gas could push them even higher. The energy-stricken continent faces a difficult balancing act as it fights for its energy security.
Reuters quoted EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen as saying the bloc could delay the methane emissions provisions by a year, which are scheduled to take effect at the start of next year. The rules require foreign producers supplying Europe to monitor and report methane emissions.
The big concern is that compliance risks and potential penalties could discourage suppliers from sending fuel to Europe just as governments panic-search to secure winter supplies. Disruptions linked to the war in Ukraine and Iran have disrupted supplies of avaiable crude and crude products.
"I have instructed my services... to look into possibilities of postponing the part that has to do with imports," Jorgensen told reporters at a meeting of EU energy ministers in Dublin.
The potential withdrawal of the new methane emissions rule comes as the International Energy Agency weighs another strategic oil reserves dump to cap crude oil prices from rising further - just as China re-enters.
"We are following the markets very closely, especially the product markets, diesel and others. If there is a need, of course, we will discuss with our member governments to take the necessary steps," IEA head Fatih Birol told reporters in Dublin ahead of a meeting of EU energy ministers.
Fatih Birol
UBS markets analyst Nana Antiedu commented earlier today on the ongoing disruption to the global refining market:
Since the July update, UBS Evidence Lab's refining project tracker shows disruptions across global refining have intensified, driven by the Strait of Hormuz situation and further attacks on Russian refineries.
Around 11% of global refining capacity was offline during August, typically the lightest month of the year for maintenance. European refining margins set a new all-time high at $50/bbl. As the industry enters the autumn maintenance season, energy analyst Anna Kishmariya estimates offline capacity should remain above 11Mb/d through at least October, absent a recovery in Middle Eastern product flows.
She raises the estimate of capacity requiring repairs exceeding two months to about 2.3Mb/d. The key focus remains the potential US product export ban. Given US exports account for over 20% of the global diesel export market, Anna does not believe the market could absorb another major supply disruption. While not her base case, this remains the key upside risk to margins.
Brent prices reversed earlier amid conflicting messaging on US-Iran negotiations, continued flows through the Hormuz chokepoint and renewed flows through Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. Recall last week that Goldman warned a global refining nightmare could extend well into 2027 (read report).
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 12:50Disney fans, buy now: A price hike could be just days away
Trump Asks Supreme Court To Restore Restrictions On Transgender Inmate Treatments
Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness,
The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court on Monday to allow the Bureau of Prisons to enforce restrictions on medical interventions and social accommodations for transgender federal inmates while a legal challenge continues.
The Justice Department's emergency request follows a lower court order blocking the policy for inmates diagnosed with gender dysphoria.
Under the Bureau of Prisons policy, inmates would continue to have access to mental health services, but the government would not provide hormone therapy, surgeries or accommodations such as chest binders, wigs and breast padding.
The legal fight began after President Donald Trump issued an executive order directing the Bureau of Prisons to revise its policies and prohibit federal funds from being spent on medical procedures, treatments or drugs intended to make an inmate's appearance conform to the opposite sex.
U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth blocked the new Bureau of Prisons policy in June, finding in part that it had been "reverse engineered" to carry out Trump's executive order. Lamberth ordered the government to continue providing previously available treatments to affected inmates.
The Justice Department appealed, but the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit declined earlier this month to let the administration enforce the policy while the case proceeds.
The administration is now asking the Supreme Court to intervene.
In its emergency filing, the Justice Department accused the district court of "substituting its own policy judgment for that of the agency."
Solicitor General D. John Sauer argued that prison officials determined the restrictions were "necessary to maintain institutional security" and said the lower court's ruling prevents the executive branch from carrying out its chosen policy.
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 12:45Vera Wang, 77, snaps makeup-free selfie while working from bed: ‘My real office’
Vera Wang, 77, snaps makeup-free selfie while working from bed: ‘My real office’
Former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem files for divorce from cross-dressing husband Bryon
Extremely venomous African viper that can grow to 7ft on the loose in Orange County
‘Scum of the earth’ tourists ignite international backlash after filming themselves riding egg-laying sea turtle
School tied to Alexander the Great discloses clues about his life before his rise to power
Jefferies Beats On Record Stock Trading, But Asset Management Revenue Plunges 50% On First Brands, Radiant "Cockroaches"
Jefferies is once again the first major Wall Street firm to report its quarter, and once again the story is of two very different banks under one roof: a trading and banking franchise running near record highs, and an asset-management arm that keeps finding new ways to lose money on receivables that may or may not exist.
The good news first. In the fiscal third quarter ended August 31, Jefferies reported EPS of $1.08, beating the $1.00 consensus (core EPS of $1.08 also beat Goldman's $1.03 and the Street's $1.01). Core pre-tax income came in 9% ahead of the Street, driven by:
- Equities trading: $626 million, up 29% YoY and a record, helped by cash, electronic trading and prime services (i.e., hedge funds levering up into the AI melt-up).
- Investment banking: $1.3 billion, up 17%, with advisory up 25% (also a record) and equity underwriting up 69%.
- Fixed income trading: the laggard, with net revenue down 26% in what the bank called a sluggish market.
And then there's the asset-management unit, where net revenue fell to $85.6 million from almost $177 million a year earlier. That's a 52% drop, and it comes from the same two names that have been following Jefferies around for a year: First Brands and Radiant World, both held through Leucadia Asset Management's Point Bonita trade-finance fund.
The stock fell 1.1% in early trading, taking the YTD decline past 25%. That is a strange reaction to a record quarter, unless you remember how the last twelve months have gone.
Goldman: Buy... with a 15% lower price targetGoldman's James Yaro headlined his overnight note "Equities trading and expense beat, outlook and momentum remain largely the same." That is sell-side for "fine, nothing to see here," and Goldman does expect "a slightly constructive response to results." Look closer, though, and the note is a good deal less relaxed than the title.
First, the good parts, per Goldman:
- Equities: A second consecutive record at $626MM, 10%/14% ahead of GSe/Street, "with strength across all products, especially in prime."
- Advisory: Record quarterly revenue, "in part driven by a sponsor recovery, as well as broad-based share gains across sectors."
- Margins: A core pre-tax margin of 15.8%, about 150bps above consensus, thanks to a non-comp ratio about 145bps below the Street.
- Buybacks: 1.3MM shares repurchased in the quarter.
Now the less good parts, starting with the quality of the beat:
- The banking beat is the volatile kind. It "was primarily driven by other investment banking ($31mn vs. GSe/consensus at $5mn/11mn), the most volatile of JEF's IBanking business." Underwriting actually missed by 3%. ECM came in 4% short of the Street, even while growing 69% YoY, so expectations were running even hotter than the deal flow.
- Some of the expense discipline is really just shrinkage. A portion "likely relates to merchant banking wind-downs, which appear to have been larger than anticipated in terms of both revenue and expenses." Jefferies is spending less partly because there is less business left to spend on.
- FICC missed badly: 18% below the Street and 15% below Goldman.
And then there is asset management, where the headline number actually understates the damage. Strip out merchant banking and Jefferies' core asset-management revenue was just $13 million, against Goldman's $38MM estimate and the Street's $36MM. That's a 66%/64% miss, "primarily driven by lower investment returns." In response, Goldman cut its 2026E/27E/28E asset management revenue by 22%/11%/6%.
Goldman's rating is still Buy, but look at what it did to valuation. The bank (full report here) cut its target multiple by 2.5x to 11.0x and its 12-month price target by ~15%, from $67 to $57, even as its 2026 EPS estimate rose 2%. It also offered a telling explanation for the stock's persistent discount: "we believe that the market discounts the multiples assigned to these businesses, given their volatility." Put simply, even when Jefferies beats, investors won't pay up for the kinds of earnings it produces.
The chart in the Goldman note shows the result: JEF is down 29.4% over twelve months, and 39.4% behind the S&P 500. The stock peaked just as First Brands was about to blow up and has spent the year since trailing the market.
Vital Knowledge's Adam Crisafulli gave the quarter a fitting grade: "Not amazing, not horrible." He also questioned how long the equities boom can last, which is a reasonable question when the entire Street is printing record equities revenue on the same trade.
The wider read-across is positive for the rest of the Street's equity desks. BofA's Brian Moynihan said earlier this month that equity trading was up in the quarter through mid-September, and Goldman's David Solomon said equities remained "very strong." In FICC, BofA warned that revenue was down and "bouncing around," and Jefferies' -26% suggests that was an understatement.
The cockroach problemManagement kept the upbeat tone. CEO Rich Handler and President Brian Friedman said they "remain confident in the long-term outlook" for asset management as they "reposition the platform by reducing capital allocated to certain existing funds." In other words, Point Bonita is being wound down. The plan is to put the capital into Hildene, the credit manager Jefferies agreed in December 2025 to buy 50% of, alongside Hildene's $550 million purchase of annuity writer SILAC. Replacing a trade-finance fund that blew up on receivables with a credit shop that owns an insurer is one way to diversify, at least.
As a reminder of how we got here:
- First Brands. When the auto-parts roll-up collapsed into bankruptcy in the fall of 2025, it turned out that Point Bonita, which once managed roughly $3 billion, had about a quarter of its assets tied to First Brands receivables (around $715 million, per Jefferies' own October 2025 update). The DOJ then opened a probe into what we called First Brands' "shocking bankruptcy" (Oct 2025). A week later, Jamie Dimon's "when you see one cockroach, there are probably more" line became the market's official slogan, and JEF crashed more than 10% in a single session as regional banks crashed as more credit "cockroaches" emerged (Oct 16, 2025).
- Market Financial Solutions. Then, in February, Jefferies was again scrambling to recover what it could (Feb 27, 2026) after the collapse of UK bridging lender MFS, where we noted that "Banco Santander and Jefferies – both of which sank in the First Brands swamp" were once more in the line of fire.
Here We Go Again: Billions Vaporized In Spectacular Private Credit Collapse https://t.co/y5jPVUmrOT
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 27, 2026- Radiant World. This is the latest one, and it is the ugliest. Radiant is a Singapore iron-ore trader that bought receivables from counterparties like Glencore and Vitol and financed them through banks and funds, including - drumroll - Point Bonita. In August, Hedgeweek reported that payments to the fund had "slowed," and several commodity houses stopped trading with Radiant over questions about its invoices. Jefferies was said to believe the underlying trades "remain legitimate."
That view lasted about a month. Since then:
- Sep 5: Jefferies' LAM Trade Finance fund won a UK freezing order against Radiant, founder Pinkesh Nahar, and affiliate Sapphire Minmetals. Parallel orders followed in Hong Kong and Singapore.
- Sep 8-9: The fund formally accused Radiant of fraud in a $500 million claim, alleging the iron-ore receivables "either did not exist or were not validly assigned."
- Sep 17: Radiant disclosed that it had about $10,000 in cash, compared with audited financials showing more than $200 million. Somewhere, an auditor is updating their LinkedIn.
- Sep 19: Radiant sued Glencore for $2 billion in Singapore, which is an interesting move for a company with $10K in the bank. Glencore has reportedly already taken a $480 million provision and told Mizuho that Radiant sent it a fake Glencore email about repaying a $95.5 million loan.
- Sep 24-25: KPMG was appointed interim judicial manager, a Singapore judge questioned Radiant's claimed $1 billion of receivables, and Bloomberg reported that Singapore police had received a fraud report months before the crisis, with Intesa Sanpaolo apparently suspicious of the invoices before anyone else.
Then there is the question of how much Jefferies actually has at risk. Bloomberg has put Jefferies' exposure at "less than $300 million." But according to a creditor schedule the founder submitted to the court, Jefferies is Radiant's largest creditor at $353 million, well ahead of Intesa ($238MM), Deutsche Bank ($103MM) and Mizuho ($97MM), out of $870 million total. The fraud claim filed by the fund is for $500 million. Pick a number.
Bottom lineFor the rest of the Street, the Jefferies print is good news: equities are booming, the ECM window is wide open, advisory is at records, and backlogs are "broad and strong" ("very optimistic about the balance of 2026 and our momentum heading into 2027," per Handler and Friedman). JPM's Market Intel desk, which this morning went back to "Tactically Bullish," said that outside of AI plays it favors banks, given "the growth reboot, potentially steeper yield curve, and favorable capital markets outlook."
For Jefferies itself, the market is saying something different. The stock is down more than 25% YTD and nearly 30% over twelve months despite record trading and advisory. Goldman's Buy rating now sits on a price target 15% lower and on a multiple that assumes investors will keep charging a volatility discount. Goldman even lists "a much longer timeframe to wind down the merchant bank" among its downside risks.
After First Brands, MFS, and now an iron-ore trader with $10,000 in its account and a fake Glencore email, the market isn't asking whether there are more cockroaches. It's asking where the next one is.
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 12:30Chipotle is bringing back $6 margaritas — but only in a few lucky cities
Democrats Split On Whether To Impeach Trump Again If They Win The House
Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times,
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said on Sept. 28 that Democrats would put lowering costs first if they win the House in November.
But he did not rule out impeaching President Donald Trump, as members of his party are split publicly on whether to try for that a third time.
Asked on CNBC's "Squawk Box" how much of a Democratic majority's next two years would be spent on hearings about Trump, his family, and his administration, Jeffries said the party is focused on affordability but also has an oversight role.
"We're committed to an affordability agenda," he said.
"As I travel the country, speak to people, whether that's in urban America, rural parts of America, the heartland of America, small-town America, or black and brown communities throughout America. The one thing that is clear is that people are struggling.
"They are drowning in this failed Republican economy. They're working hard, they're playing by the rules, but they cannot thrive and can barely survive. It's an unacceptable situation. And so, when we say we're focused on affordability, we mean it."
Jeffries said he believed that there has been "unprecedented corruption unleashed on the American people" and that if Democrats win the House, they would "have a responsibility to visit the type of accountability that is consistent with the House as a separate and co-equal branch of government."
Pressed on the balance between accountability and affordability, he said the next Democratic caucus would include progressives, moderates, and more socially conservative members united around the cost of living.
Jeffries said when it came to cleaning up what he called the "rampant corruption" that exists in Washington, Democrats would "follow the facts, apply the law, be guided by the Constitution, and then let the chips fall where they may on behalf of the American people."
"We have a responsibility, of course, as a Congress, to serve as a check and balance on an out-of-control executive branch. That's not partisan, that's patriotic," he said.
Jeffries's comments came a day after Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) said on NBC's "Meet the Press" that impeaching Trump a third time would not be a mistake for Democrats.
"No, it's not. Because it's not about Donald Trump," Khanna said.
"He's going to be a lame duck, and in my view, increasingly irrelevant.
"The point is to stand up for the Constitution.
"Impeachment says that you can't get into an illegal war in Iran without constitutional approval. Impeachment says that you can't just start firing federal employees in defiance of what Congress says. Impeachment says you can't do deals with foreign governments to allegedly enrich your own family.
"It's about setting a standard."
He said Democrats could pursue impeachment while also moving on child care, the minimum wage, paid family leave, and taxes on billionaires in their first 100 days.
"We can do both," he said.
Khanna was responding to a clip of Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), who told an audience at the Center for American Progress on Sept. 22 that Democrats should not pursue impeachment if they win control of Congress.
"What I will encourage my colleagues to not do, especially those who have more fire in their belly in this area, is don't be impeaching anybody. Let's just get back to work," Duckworth said.
"I'm not interested in being in a confrontation with Donald Trump. I can be. I have been. It's not going to stop me. But I would rather move the ball forward through the benefit of the American people.
"And if we can do it in a way that allows him to save face and he doesn't stop us, then that's better for everybody all around."
Duckworth, speaking at an event on U.S. - China relations ahead of Chinese leader Xi Jinping's White House visit, said her priority was resolving tariffs that she said threaten Illinois soybean, corn, and pork farmers.
Trump was impeached by the House in 2019 and 2021 and acquitted by the Senate both times.
House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) said on John Catsimatidis's "Cats Roundtable" radio show on Sept. 27 that a Democratic majority would turn oversight into a campaign against Republicans.
"You will see the Democrats take that oversight function and turn it into a weaponization of government. They will go after everybody. They say they're not going to, but we know they will," Jordan said.
"They'll do a third impeachment of President Trump.
"But that's just part of it. They're going to investigate the first family. They're going to investigate Cabinet secretaries, anyone.
"Jamie Raskin is going to go after Todd Blanche and Kash Patel. They're going to have people in other committees go after Secretary Hegseth and on and on; it's going to be."
Jordan said potential targets he believed that Democrats would go after include businesses that helped fund Trump's inauguration and potential 2028 Republican presidential candidates, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
"It'll be nonstop weaponized investigations, not for legitimate oversight, but to just go after your political opponents," he said.
Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) is the top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee and would be in line to lead it under a Democratic majority. The midterm elections are on Nov. 3.
The White House stated that the threats amount to "decades" of recycled "investigations against President Trump, his family, and his administration," in an emailed response to The Epoch Times.
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 12:15