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Record Plunge In Real-Estate Job Opening Sends JOLTS Sharply Lower, Hints At Ugly Jobs Report

After five straight months of JOLTS beats earlier in the year, including two blowout prints for April and May and zero misses since 2025, the June JOLTS report was a surprising miss (despite the previously discussed surge in government job openings). One month later, the July JOLTS report made it two misses for two, when the US reportedly had 7.271 million job openings, modestly below the consensus estimate. Fast forward to today when moments ago the BLS reported that in August the number of job openings dropped from an upward revised 7.335 million (which ironically would have been a beat to last month's estimate), to 7.079 million...

.... missing the consensus estimate of 7.228 million for the third month in a row.

Notably, this was the first upward revision to the data after three months. Of course, nobody can possibly forget the three straight years of negative revisions between 2023 and 2025...  

Where did the openings come from? According to the BLS the number and rate of job openings were little changed at 7.1 million and 4.3 percent, respectively. As shown in the table below, there were gains in trade, information, leisure and hospitality job openings, offset by declines in construction, manufacturing, professional/business services, and private education job openings.

The most notable category, however, was real estate and rental and leasing job openings, which plunged by almost half, dropping to just 50K in August, the lowest since Feb 2014.

The August rise in job openings was juxtaposed with an overall drop in July employment, which meant that after 9 months of labor surplus which ended in March, and after 4 months of modest improvements in the number of excess job openings, we are back to being on the verge of having fewer job openings than unemployed workers, as the August surplus tumbled to just 48K from 419K the month before, and a concerning development for the broader labor market which according to most other measures continues to fire on all cylinders.

The latest JOLTS data also means that after rising as high as 1.1x in July, the ratio of job openings to unemployed dropped back down to 1.0x.

While the job openings number was far weaker than expected for the third time this year, in July we also saw continued weakness in quits offset by a small bounce in hires. In August the number of Quits - or the "take his job and shove it" indicator - dropped by another 23K to 3.066MM from 3.089MM indicating a drop in confidence that better jobs await elsewhere; at the same time hires rose modestly by 46K, from 5.146MM to 5.192MM.

It goes without saying that disappointing job openings (which tumbled after an upward revision) while quits slump and hires barely rise, leads one to scratch their head how weak the labor market truly is. 

In any case, since this hires number feeds directly into the payrolls calculations (after netting out separations) this explains why the August payrolls report surged by 162K (at a time when the hires less separations print was 122K). And since the JOLTS implied number is far weaker than that, having printed negative for a third month in a row, we expect the August payrolls report this Friday to be yet another catch down, and will likely be much lower than the 162K increase reported last month. 

Overall, this was a weak JOLTS report, with weakness in both openings and quits, and shows that after some significant strength in the early part of of 2026, US labor market is now hitting an air pocket and this could translate into another notable miss in this Friday jobs report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 10:45

Commenters gushed that Keeva was a "copy & paste" of Hannigan.

Commenters gushed that Keeva was a "copy & paste" of Hannigan.

A West Chelsea real estate pioneer, Evangelista purchased the swanky aerie in a then-burgeoning arts district for $1.4 million back in 2001.

A pivotal stretch in the Bears’ 27-7 win over the Eagles saw Jalen Hurts watching from the sideline.

'The conduct of these men was disgusting, despicable, and clearly wrong morally, the allegations, if accepted as true, did not allege violations of the penal law."

Mamdani is set to roll out his “plan” to fight antisemitism Tuesday morning — but still refuses to adopt a formal definition of anti-Jewish hate or acknowledge Israel as a Jewish state.

Considering it's the most prestigious leg of fashion month, it's no surprise PFW always draws the biggest stars.

Considering it's the most prestigious leg of fashion month, it's no surprise PFW always draws the biggest stars.

What will happen as we set sail for Yacht Rock Week on Dancing With the Stars?

AI Is Repricing Capital Before It Reprices The Economy

Authored by Cory Frank via RealClearMarkets,

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 3.75 to 4 percent. Inflation remains elevated even as economic activity continues to expand, productivity is strong and capital investment remains robust.

At Jackson Hole a few weeks earlier, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh highlighted another unusual feature of the economy. Business capital spending is rising rapidly, and he estimated that more than half of its growth this year can likely be attributed to the artificial intelligence buildout.

AI did not cause the Fed's latest rate increase. Inflation, energy prices, and broader economic demand all matter. But the confluence raises a question that receives far less attention than whether AI will eliminate jobs or justify technology valuations:

What is the AI investment boom doing to the price of capital before the productivity gains arrive?

The answer matters even to businesses that never build a data center, buy a GPU or train an AI model.

The Investment Comes First

Artificial intelligence is usually discussed in terms of what it will eventually do. It can automate work, analyze enormous amounts of data, accelerate research, write software and improve decision-making. If those capabilities diffuse throughout the economy, companies should eventually be able to produce more with the same or fewer resources. That could restrain production costs and reduce inflationary pressure.

But before AI can make much of the economy more productive, someone has to build the infrastructure that makes it possible.

McKinsey estimates that data centers could require roughly $6.7 trillion in worldwide capital investment through 2030, including about $5.2 trillion for AI workloads. That means enormous spending on computing hardware, power, cooling, land and the infrastructure connecting it all.

The Federal Reserve is already seeing the effect. Business fixed investment rose at an 11 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2026, and the Fed concluded that most of that strength appeared connected to infrastructure supporting AI services. At the same time, investment outside AI-related categories, particularly offices and manufacturing structures, remained relatively weak.

That sequencing matters.

The investment comes first. The productivity comes later.

A Repricing of Capital

Capital does not have to become scarce for its price to change. Investors only need better alternatives.

For much of the period following the financial crisis, capital was plentiful and interest rates were low. Investors searched for yield. Businesses borrowed cheaply. Real estate benefited from low required returns. Companies could leave excess cash sitting in operating accounts because the opportunity cost was minimal.

The environment today is different.

Data centers need capital. So do power plants, transmission systems, semiconductor facilities and the businesses supporting them. Governments continue to borrow heavily. Traditional infrastructure needs financing. Companies throughout the economy still need money to expand. This can contribute to a broader repricing of capital.

AI is creating potentially productive places to deploy enormous amounts of money. If those opportunities offer compelling returns, every other potential investment has to compete with them.

The economy does not have to run out of money. The opportunity cost of money only has to rise.

Consider an apartment building. Its tenants, rents and operating costs might not change materially. But if an investor can earn more attractive risk-adjusted returns financing data centers, power infrastructure, semiconductor capacity or other investments, that building now competes against a different opportunity set.

An apartment building does not need an AI strategy for AI to affect its valuation.

The Hurdle Rate Moves Inside the Company

Higher required returns do more than move bond yields and asset prices. They change which projects actually get funded.

A corporate investment that cleared the hurdle rate when capital cost 5 percent may not clear it at 8 percent. A plant expansion gets delayed. An acquisition no longer pencils. Paying down debt becomes more attractive. Management becomes more selective about capital expenditures, inventory and working capital.

Higher capital costs do not live only in financial markets. They move inside the company.

Cash changes character as well.

When interest rates were close to zero, excess operating cash earned almost nothing. The financial penalty for managing liquidity inefficiently was relatively small. When safe assets offer meaningful returns and borrowing remains expensive, every dollar sitting on a balance sheet carries a measurable opportunity cost.

A company can invest that dollar in its business, reduce debt, return it to shareholders, preserve it for liquidity or earn a market return until it is needed. Treasury management therefore becomes part of capital allocation, not merely an administrative function.

It is also important to distinguish among different prices of money.

The Federal Reserve sets an overnight policy rate. Financial markets determine longer-term yields. Businesses and investors establish hurdle rates based on those benchmarks, risk and the returns available elsewhere. Those rates do not have to move together.

The Fed can eventually reduce short-term rates as inflation moderates while investors continue to require relatively high returns to commit capital for five, ten or thirty years. Conversely, a weakening economy could pull both policy rates and required returns lower.

That is why the central question is not simply whether AI causes the Fed to raise or lower interest rates. It is whether AI raises the marginal cost of capital across the economy before its full productivity benefits arrive.

Don't Confuse the Buildout With the Equilibrium

None of this tells us where AI ultimately takes interest rates.

Rapid labor displacement could increase unemployment, weaken demand and eventually push rates lower. The infrastructure boom could overshoot, leaving excess data-center, semiconductor and power capacity and ending in an investment bust. Or AI could work extraordinarily well, expanding productive capacity, making some forms of U.S. manufacturing more competitive and driving down the cost of goods and services.

Several of those things could happen at the same time.

Those are questions about the mature AI economy.

We should examine them, but they are inherently more difficult to forecast than the capital cycle unfolding in front of us.

Today, the investment demand is observable.

Trillions of dollars are being committed to physical and digital infrastructure. Labor, energy, equipment and capital are being deployed now. Much of the eventual productivity payoff remains ahead of us. That difference matters because the economics of the buildout may look very different from the economics of the mature AI economy.

The first broad economic impact of AI may not be that it makes everything cheaper. It may be that it raises the value of capital.

We are not yet living in the mature AI economy. We are financing its construction.

AI may eventually lower the price of goods. It is already changing the price of capital.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 10:25

'Worse Than COVID': Consumer Confidence Crashes In September

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index plunged in September (-6.7pt to 81.9) - the lowest headline print since April 2014.

The Present Situation Index fell sharply, while the Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory.

This was the fourth straight monthly miss for confidence and the biggest miss since Dec 2024...

"Consumer appraisals of current business conditions became negative for the first time since September 2024," said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

"Perceptions of the current labor market also worsened, though remained within positive territory. Over the next six months, consumers expected both business conditions and the labor market to weaken. Consumers still anticipated their household incomes to rise, but less so compared to previous months.”

Perceptions of current employment conditions also softened, with the labor market differential - the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get” - retreating tumbling to its lowest since Feb 2021...

On a six-month moving average basis, confidence across all age groups and nearly all income groups trended downward.

While higher-income groups remained generally more optimistic, those with a household income of $125,000-$149,000 reported the greatest decline in confidence over the last six months.

By generation, confidence for Gen Z, followed by Millennials, remained the highest on a six-month moving average basis.

Confidence continued to weaken among the three oldest generations - Generation X, Baby Boomers, and the Silent Generation.

Confidence fell in September across all political affiliations - Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.

Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations also jumped in September to 6.1% and 5.1% respectively.

The share of consumers anticipating higher interest rates over the next 12 months jumped by 5.2 ppts to 68.4%. Consumers still largely expected stock prices to rise in the next 12 months, but optimism moderated in September.

Finally, consumers’ write-in responses regarding factors affecting the economy were mostly pessimistic in September: 

"References to prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular, rose to new heights, reflecting September’s surge in fuel costs.

Comments about war/conflict eased this month but remained elevated. Consumers also frequently cited politics, trade, and employment in their write-in responses, though to a lesser extent."

Not pretty... especially into the Midterms.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 10:17

Reeve, the 34-year-old son of Superman actor Christopher Reeve, has revealed that he was diagnosed with testicular cancer.

The "You" actor made headlines in 2023 when he stated he didn't want to participate in intimate scenes anymore.

The "You" actor made headlines in 2023 when he stated he didn't want to participate in intimate scenes anymore.

Whatever incremental improvements the Nets have made, they’ve been made without touching the league’s biggest cache of assets. 

Pinky Promise

By Molly Schwarz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank

Iran is feeling some of the economic pressure of Bessent’s “Operation Economic Outcast” with reports from Al-Hadath suggesting that Iran has agreed to halt uranium enrichment in exchange for the relaxing of US sanctions. This, of course, is the uranium that Iran was apparently never enriching, and even if they were enriching it in facilities that no one is allowed to check, it would only be for peaceful purposes. Pinky promise.

But, should these reports be verified, this could suggest some meaningful steps in the right direction to start to ease military and economic pressures in the Middle East. Total regime change in Iran is likely off the table, but convincing the current regime in Iran to give up on its goal of obtaining a nuclear weapon is…unlikely. A “compromise” where Iran pretends to stop enriching Uranium, and gets some economic relief in the process, and the US has an out where the GOP can save some face, right before the midterms, could mean end game. However, this all necessitates that the Al-Hadath headline is legitimate, that Iranian officials stand by their word, and that the US agrees to such conditions.

But markets were happy to digest whatever positive news they could, with Brent crude oil dropping around $4 on the announcement to $105/bbl. Despite the retracement in oil, yields still made their way higher, with the 2-year trading back up to 4.92%, and the 10-year up to 5.23%, after briefly breaking above 5.25%. Some talks are circulating about potential re-inversion of the US yield curve, as traders price in more hikes in the short end (17.5bp at the October meeting, and 94.6bp by July of 2027), but a look at the current spread of 32bp suggests that there’s still some way to go before reinversion becomes dinner-table talk.

Stablecoin has also made its way back into US-Senate headlines, after the Senate failed to pass the CLARITY Act a few weeks ago. However, the recent headline suggests that the passage of the CLARITY Act might also be farther off than originally thought. On Monday, the US Senate subcommittee on investigations released a 28-page report cleverly titled “Tethered to Terrorism” which highlighted findings that Tether stablecoin had been used by the Iranian regime to evade sanctions and fund its proxy groups throughout the Middle East. Much of the fear surrounding stablecoin and other cryptocurrencies is the lack of traceability and the ability to use it for nefarious transactions. Which reminds me of an interesting proposition: imagine that instead of digital banking transactions, we instead printed physical cash, that could be circulated both domestically and internationally, without ever leaving a documented online trail that the cops nor the IRS could easily follow? Think about the millions of dollars of taxes that could be evaded and all the black market transactions that could take place…crazy, right?

The Financial Times reports that “EU countries are considering NATO-style joint responses to Russian hybrid attacks.” Hybrid attacks—those that include both physical and online warfare—were flagged recently by Danish intelligence, suggesting that their frequency, including those against NATO members, could increase in the coming months. But mobilizing 27 member-countries to go to war, when they can’t even agree on whether to sanction Russian gas or not, is easier said than done. One unnamed, but brilliant EU diplomat said “I’m not sure that anyone thinks the way to fight back against the Russians is to hold more meetings.” While wise in theory, holding meetings is what the EU does best. Defense ministers were invited to discuss the proposals yesterday.

The US and China agreed to extend their trade truce to January 10 to lift tariffs on USD 60 billion of “non-sensitive goods,” with each country receiving USD 30 billion of preferential trade status on their respective exports. Non-sensitive goods may or may not include military arms, apparently, as the US ambassador to China, David Perdue, said that Trump offered to sell arms to China. In the realm of national security, it’s not a great idea to be reliant on your adversaries for weapons. But, in the case of the US, exporting weapons to your adversaries might be good business—notwithstanding that US law prohibits arms sales to China. Nor what happens if American (or Taiwanese) troops find themselves staring down the barrel of an M16. Unless, as part of the arms deal, China pinky promises to only use them for peaceful purposes. It should be noted that the White House has denied all claims of Trump making such an offer, and Xi’s response to this offer has not been revealed.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 10:05

Color them surprised.

The messages were sent in a Snapchat group chat between the members of Phi Chi fraternity on the night the student, referred to only as Jane Doe, claimed she was plied with drugs and sexually assaulted by seven students in October 2024.

There's a distinct feeling that comes with playoff baseball.