Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,
President Donald Trump on Thursday vowed to look into reports of multiple U.S. scientists who have either died or gone missing in recent months.
“I hope it’s random, but we’re going to know in the next week and a half,” he told reporters, adding that “I just left a meeting on that subject.”
The reports, he added, are serious, because “some of them were very important people, and we’re going to look at it over the next short period.”
The president provided an update a day after White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that the Trump administration is investigating.
A reporter asked Leavitt about 10 scientists who died or disappeared over the past several years, with some of them having access to nuclear or aerospace material.
“I haven’t spoken to our relevant agencies about it. I will certainly do that, and we’ll get you an answer. If true, of course, that’s definitely something I think this government and administration would deem worth looking into,” she said in response.
At least one House lawmaker, Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.), asked the FBI to investigate the reports.
“The disappearance of multiple scientists and military personnel with ties to advanced research is deeply concerning. I’ve already requested FBI involvement, and we will keep pressing for answers,” Burlison wrote in a post on X in late March.
Another, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), also called for an investigation into the disappearances.
“The numbers seem very high in these certain areas of research. I think we’d better be paying attention, and I don’t think we should trust our government,” he told the Daily Mail in March.
Burchett also made reference to the disappearance of a former Air Force general, William McCasland, who vanished from his New Mexico home without his phone or glasses in February. Media reports said that a colleague of his, Monica Reza, a rocket scientist, went missing in June 2025 after she did not return home from hiking in the Angeles National Forest in Southern California.
The lawmaker appeared to suggest that McCasland’s disappearance was linked to his aerospace or UFO research, saying that “those folks are very secretive about what they know” and he believes that McCasland “was involved in some of that.”
A former Department of State analyst, Marik von Rennenkampff, told NewsNation on Wednesday that the disappearances are unusual and could be connected.
“It’s bizarre,” he said. “I go through various potential scenarios. These are large organizations. Could these be coincidences? I think we might have passed that threshold.”
The Epoch Times contacted the FBI for comment Thursday.
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Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 09:45With President Trump signaling on Thursday that a deal with Tehran could be close, and indicating that another round of talks may take place this weekend, the focus is already beginning to shift beyond the Gulf region and back toward the Gulf of America, where reports earlier this week suggested the U.S. military was preparing for some form of intervention against the communist regime in Cuba.
USA Today reported on Wednesday that the Department of War is preparing for a possible operation in Cuba. The report was based on two sources.
The DoW responded to the outlet, saying it plans for a range of contingencies and remains prepared to execute the president's orders as directed.
By early Friday, X user OSINTdefender reported that a U.S. Navy high-altitude, long-endurance maritime surveillance drone "flew an over-12-hour mission off the coast of Cuba."
BLKCAT6, a U.S. Navy MQ-4C “Triton” High-Altitude Surveillance Drone flew an over 12-hour mission yesterday off the coast of Cuba, flying rounds over the Gulf of America and Northern Caribbean, taking a particularly close look at both Havana and the area near Guantanamo Bay,… pic.twitter.com/X8UahG4Z0Y
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 17, 2026The drone in question was a U.S. Navy MQ-4C Triton, used primarily for maritime intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. It is also used for target detection and tracking.
Importantly, the maritime surveillance drone provided the Navy with a wide-area view of what was happening along the Cuban coast. It is often paired with a P-8 Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft.
Also on Thursday, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel addressed a crowd of communist supporters, saying he does not want conflict with the U.S. He also boasted that Cuban forces would defeat the U.S. military.
Díaz-Canel told the crowd: "We have to be ready to resist serious threats, including military aggression. We do not seek it, but it is our duty to prepare to avert it, and, should it prove inevitable, to win it."
The Trump administration has been calling on the communist regime in Havana to open the island economically so it can thrive, rather than remain trapped in its current state of economic collapse - a byproduct of failed communism. Oddly enough, some Democrats and left-wing NGOs continue to praise communism in Cuba and claim that it works well.
President Trump's march across the Western Hemisphere and into the Gulf region appears to be ushering in a new order, one in which the U.S. maintains its dominance for another generation by controlling energy flows. China is certainly angered.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 09:30Authored by James Hickman via SchiffSovereign.com,
In April 1971, Keith Richards loaded his family and his Bentley onto a cross-Channel ferry and drove south until he hit the Mediterranean. He rented a 19th-century villa called Nellcôte on a hillside above Villefranche-sur-Mer, and converted the basement into a recording studio.
Over the following year the rest of the Rolling Stones rotated through the house and nearby properties to record the double album that became Exile on Main St., while staying deliberately out of reach of the British tax authorities.
The top marginal income tax rate in Britain at the time was 75%, and a surcharge on the highest earners pushed the effective rate on the wealthiest past 90%.
Three years later, under Denis Healey’s 1974 budget, the top rate on earned income would climb to 83% and the rate on investment income would reach 98%.
Britain would spend the rest of the decade watching capital flee and begging the IMF for emergency loans.
David Bowie, Rod Stewart, Michael Caine, Sean Connery, and a long line of less famous wealthy Britons eventually ran the same arithmetic as the Stones and reached a similar conclusion. Capital left the country in every form it could fit into, including bonds, businesses, luxury cars, and rock stars.
But politicians never learn.
Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey has backed legislation that would push the top federal income-tax rate to 43%.
Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland is pushing a version that lands at 49%.
Both men describe it, as they always do, as wealthy Americans finally paying their “fair share.”
What exact percent is their fair share? Are we to believe they will be satisfied at 43% or 49%?
As always, that phrase is deliberately left undefined.
Never-mind that the top 1% of filers already paid 40.4% of all federal income taxes in 2022 while the bottom 50% paid roughly 3%.
They are also conveniently ignorant of the fact that raising the top marginal rate doesn’t actually raise revenue at all.
Since the end of the Second World War, U.S. federal tax revenue has averaged around 17% to 18% of GDP, dipping toward 15% in deep recessions and climbing near 20% in booms. The swings track the business cycle, not tax policy.
The top marginal rate, over that same stretch, has been all over the map: 91% under Eisenhower, 28% under Reagan by 1988, 39.6% under Clinton, 37% today. Yet regardless of whether tax rates were 91% or 37%, the IRS always collects around 17% of GDP.
The conclusion is obvious: if the government wants to collect more tax revenue, they should focus on setting the right conditions for an economic boom.
In short, make the pie bigger for EVERYONE, and hence the government’s slice will grow as well.
Making the pie bigger isn’t that hard, either. America’s private economy is legendary.
All Congress has to do is get out of the way. Attempt to run a balanced budget. Restore credibility. Make it easier for businesses and individuals to be productive. REMOVE idiotic laws instead of creating new ones.
But they’re not interested in any of those things.
Congress has documented evidence of hundreds of billions of dollars in fraud. Yet they do nothing. They have also pledged to do nothing about Social Security— which is set to run out of money in six years.
The regulatory code in the Land of the Free already runs over 188,000 pages. Yet they expand it every session.
This is the opposite of what they should be doing. And instead of figuring out how to live within their means, they just demand more resources… even though it never works.
Britain tried its 98% tax experiment in the 1970s and spent a decade regretting it.
Ironically the current Labour government has forgotten that painful lesson; they recently abolished the 110-year-old “non-dom” regime, and more than 10,000 millionaires have already left the country.
In the United States, Elizabeth Warren’s Ultra-Millionaire Tax proposal does not just impose a wealth tax. It bundles her wealth tax with an additional 40% exit tax on anyone who renounces US citizenship.
You do not create a 40% tollbooth at the border unless you fully expect people to try to walk through it.
These are not serious ideas to grow an economy.
Rather, they are insidious policies designed to trap people in a system which steals their prosperity.
That is why a Plan B makes so much sense.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 09:00Stocks are pushing higher again on the same old regurgitated news: namely speculation that a deal to end the war between the US and Iran is getting closer, the same exact "speculation" that has pushed the Nasdaq higher for what will now be 13 days in a row, and the same speculation that may keep pushing stocks even higher until the reality of no ceasefire sends risk plunging in a few days. For now however, it is sufficient to lift markets thanks to the relentless CTA VWAP grind higher, and as of 8:15am, S&P futures are 0.4% higher, with Spoos trading above 7100 while Nasdaq futs gain 0.3% after both gauges hit record highs Thursday, with all Mag 7 stocks trading higher in the premarket (MSFT +1.1%, AAPL +0.8%). Netflix tumbled 10% after it gave a disappointing Q2 forecast and Reed Hastings announced he is stepping down as Chairman. The dollar was down 10 bps and headed for a February low. Global bonds were mixed, with the 10-year Treasury yield down two basis points at 4.30%. Overnight, headlines were largely quiet: while the date of the second round of US-Iran talk has not yet been determined, Trump signaled that talks could resume this weekend. Oil prices are extending their decline: WTI is down $4 below $88 with both Brent and WTI are both down around 4% for the session as traders await details of talks between the US and Iran following optimistic comments from President Trump. Base metals are all higher led by aluminum (+0.6%); Ags are mostly lower. No economic releases are expected today. Fed’s Daly, Barkin and Waller are scheduled to speak at events. Fed’s blackout period begins Saturday.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Microsoft +1%, Apple +0.4%, Amazon +0.4%, Tesla +0.6%, Alphabet +0.1%, Nvidia +0.2%, Meta +0.2%)
In other corporate news, Apple’s marketing executive in charge of the Apple Watch, AirPods, health and smart home initiatives said he’s retiring, marking a changing of the guard for a series of key product lines. SpaceX has moved up a scheduled vesting date for shares awarded to employees to as soon as next week, ahead of an IPO. Increasing demand for AI services could continue to raise chip costs throughout the year, note Ericsson executives. Uber is raising its holding in Delivery Hero, buying a stake from its European rival’s biggest shareholder for €270 million ($318 million).
One of the most powerful rallies since World War II looks set to continue Friday as investors look past mixed signals on a Middle East peace deal, a muted Netflix outlook and the prospect of further US-Iran talks this weekend. As measured by the 14-day relative strength index, it took the US benchmark just 11 days to lurch from an oversold reading to Thursday’s arrival in overbought territory. That’s only outpaced by an even faster rally in 1982. Explanations for the abrupt change in momentum point to a combination of hedge unwinding, systematic buying and short covering by hedge funds in macro products.
While the Nasdaq’s 12-day winning streak has propelled the index to fresh all-time highs, tech valuations remain near their 10-year average. Earnings estimates have been rising in concert with stocks, keeping forward price-to-earnings ratios at low levels.
“This reset provides a more constructive entry point in equities, particularly across large-cap quality growth,” said Scott Rubner, Citadel Securities head of equity and equity derivatives strategy.
Brent dropped 4% below $96 a barrel after Trump claimed that Iran has made key concessions in negotiations with the US (Iran later denied it). The drop accelerated after Axios announced that the US is considering a $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal (Iran has yet to deny that).
Yet for all the optimism, the key transit route for about a fifth of global crude shipments remains all but shut under US and Iranian blockades. Some Gulf Arab and European leaders said that a US-Iran peace deal could take about six months to agree. And despite its overnight tumble, Brent continues to trade about a third higher since the conflict began in late February, with no clear indication of when flows through the Strait of Hormuz will resume. Bank of England policymaker Sarah Breeden warned that the war could trigger several market stresses at once.
“As we are heading closer and closer to May, the situation becomes serious,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. “If no real traffic is seen by June at the latest, things will take a different turn.”
Not that the market cares: bond and equity stress measures show markets are growing more sanguine about an eventual resolution to the conflict. The V-shaped market recovery has meant investors hedging using monthly puts held to expiry have got little benefit in return for eating carry costs.
“Now that the dust appears to be settling on events in the Middle East, market attention will once again focus back on the fundamentals, in particular earnings given that the season has just started,” said Daniel Murray, deputy chief investment officer at EFG Asset Management. “Earnings expectations are buoyant, consistent with solid underlying macro trends.”
“It’s all about earnings. EPS estimates for 2026 and beyond continue to march higher. Investors are oblivious to anything else,” said Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist, BCA Research.
Trump struck an optimistic tone about prospects for a permanent ceasefire with Iran. “It’s looking very good that we’re going to make a deal with Iran, and it’s going to be a good deal,” he told reporters at the White House. Talks between Washington and Tehran could resume this weekend, he added. He also announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Less encouragingly, some Gulf Arab and European leaders said a peace deal would take about six months to be agreed.
In politics, Democrat Analilia Mejia is projected to win the special election in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District. President Trump sought to assuage voters’ fears about the cost of living despite higher energy prices stemming from his war in Iran at a rally to build support for his economic record ahead of November’s midterm elections.
European stocks are inching higher, with Stoxx 600 up by 0.2. Alstom SA shares slid the most in over two years in Paris after the manufacturer withdrew financial guidance for this fiscal year.
Asian equities retreated ahead of the weekend as investors await progress in talks to extend the US-Iran ceasefire. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1.2%, with TSMC and Mitsubishi UFJ among the biggest drags on the gauge. Most major markets were in the red, and Japan’s Topix Index fell more than 1%. Enthusiasm for technology stocks has also waned, with chipmaking giant TSMC’s Taipei-listed shares leading declines in part due to investor unease over its heavy reliance on a small number of hyperscaler customers.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1% and there are modest moves in other major currencies.
In rates, treasuries drift higher over Asia, early London session leaving yields richer by 1bp to 2bp across the curve, following similar price action across European bonds as speculation grows that a peace deal between the US and Iran is getting closer. US 10-year yields trade close to session lows into the early US session at 4.295% with bunds and gilt trading marginally cheaper on the day in the sector. In the UK, the yield on 10-year gilts held steady after Thursday’s move higher. New details about Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador have rekindled doubts about his grip on power. The pound was little changed. US session focus includes a handful of speakers, such as Waller on the economic outlook (2pm New York) ahead of Saturday’s start to the communications blackout period. Treasury auctions next week include $13 billion 20-year bond reopening on Wednesday
In commodities, oil prices are extending their decline but there are few signs of positive spillovers to other assets. Brent and WTI are both down around 4% for the session, as traders await details of talks between the US and Iran following optimistic comments from President Trump. Gold prices are steady slightly short of $4,800/oz.
US economic data calendar slate empty for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Daly (11:30am), Barkin (12:15pm) and Waller on the economic outlook (2pm — text and Q&A expected). Fed’s external communications blackout period begins Saturday, ahead of the April 29 policy announcement
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly lower as markets lost steam following the recent rallies and with participants paring risk heading into the weekend, despite the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire taking effect and optimism by US President Trump regarding a deal between the US and Iran, which he said could resume talks over the weekend. ASX 200 was subdued with weakness seen in gold miners, financials and the consumer sectors, although the downside is limited amid a lack of fresh catalysts and a quiet data calendar. Nikkei 225 pulled back from its all-time record highs and just about returned to beneath the 59,000 level, with underperformance seen in some miners, manufacturers and semiconductor names. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the uninspired mood with the Hong Kong benchmark dragged lower by tech weakness, while participants also digested some earnings releases, including from Kweichow Moutai, which reported a 5% drop in FY profit.
Top Asian News
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) are broadly gaining on the last day of the trading week. The FTSE MIB is the slight outperformer, while the FTSE 100 lags as miners underperform. European sectors are mixed. Media tops the sector pile, closely followed by Technology while Basic Resources resides at the bottom of the pile.
Top European News
FX
Central Banks
Fixed Income
Commodities
Geopolitics: Iran
Geopolitics: Ukraine
US Event Calendar
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Morning from a beautiful start to the day here in Copenhagen. The birds are probably chirping merrily but as my man-flu has gone straight to my head I can't hear anything. An ideal excuse when I encounter difficult questions about the war from clients.
On that topic, there has been a little bit of derisking globally over the last 24 hours but markets remain broadly optimistic about the direction of travel. Oil prices are retreating back a little this morning with Brent crude down -1.09% to $98.31/bbl, after a +4.70% rise on Thursday that saw it almost reach $100/bbl again. There is some profit taking in Asia ahead of the weekend though, with the Hang Seng (-1.38%) leading the losses followed by the Nikkei (-0.96%) and the KOSPI (-0.90%). Other Asian markets are down two or three tenths of a percent. US equity futures are fairly flat.
The retreat in oil from yesterday’s high came as President Trump struck an optimistic tone on prospects for resolution, saying "It’s looking very good that we’re going to make a deal with Iran, and it’s going to be a good deal”. He predicted that agreement would be reached “fairly soon” and said that he would extend the current two-week ceasefire if a deal was close. The US President also claimed that “they’ve agreed to almost everything”, including handing over the “nuclear dust”, though there’s been no confirmation of this from the Iranian side. Earlier, Trump also announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, and he said that he’d be inviting Israel’s PM Netanyahu and Lebanon’s President Aoun to the White House. This ceasefire formally came into effect overnight.
Oil had moved higher for much of yesterday’s sessions following multiple more negative headlines, which dampened hopes about a near-term peace deal between the US and Iran. For instance, Reuters reported yesterday from two Iranian sources, who said that the US and Iranian negotiators had scaled back their ambitions for a comprehensive peace deal, and were instead looking at a temporary memorandum that would prevent a return to conflict. Moreover, Iran’s Tasnim news agency said in a report that “Iran has emphasized through Pakistani mediation that the US must first fulfill its commitments”, and that “without going through the preliminary arrangements and reaching the necessary framework, these negotiations will be of no benefit”.
That backdrop meant that oil prices moved higher yesterday, with Brent crude (+4.70%) closing at $99.39/bbl. Yet despite the latest advance for oil prices, the US equity rally continued. So not only did the S&P 500 (+0.26%) reach another record high, but yesterday saw the NASDAQ (+0.36%) advance for a 12th consecutive session for the first time since 2009. In fact, if we get a 13th advance today, it would be the longest run of consecutive gains since 1992.
Generally I'm sympathetic to the view that a resolution is more likely than not over the coming weeks even if the path is unlikely to be a straight line. However the CoTD (link here) yesterday reminded us that the last time we had a larger move in the S&P 500 in 11 business days than we’ve just seen since March 30 (+10.7%) was back in March 2022. Back then, it was because of expectations that Russian and Ukraine talks would end up in an early ceasefire to the war which was only weeks old at the time. That obviously didn't end well and the bear market soon continued. So one warning sign from the recent past.
However the macro environment was quite different back then and we were in the early stages of a big rate shock, waking us from the ZIRP slumber. Today the environment outside the war is healthier and there was further evidence yesterday, with the weekly initial jobless claims falling back to 207k in the week ending April 11 (vs. 213k expected). The labour market is showing many more signs of strength now than it did pre-war.
US Treasury yields crept higher as the upward move for oil continued. So the 2yr yield (+1.3bps) inched up to 3.78%, whilst the 10yr yield (+2.8bps) saw a slightly larger move to 4.31%. The only obvious driver was the oil move, as there weren’t materially new policy signals from Fed officials. In fact, New York Fed President Williams said given everything that was changing, “it doesn’t make sense for us to try to be giving strong forward guidance”. Governor Miran did again say that the Fed should lower rates, though in favouring “three, maybe four cuts this year”, this was perhaps a slight moderation of his dovishness given he penciled in four cuts in the March SEP. Miran had favoured a full 150bps of 2026 easing at the start of the year. Incidentally, today is the last chance for us to hear from Fed officials before the next meeting, as their blackout period begins tomorrow. That said, the nomination hearing for Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair is next Tuesday, so that will be one to watch.
Earlier in Europe, sovereign bonds put in a stronger performance. That partly came as investors reacted to a Bloomberg report after the previous day’s close, which said the ECB was leaning towards keeping rates on hold in a couple of weeks. So that eased concerns about a hawkish reaction to higher energy prices, and market pricing for an April rate hike fell to just 13%, the lowest in over a month (86% at the recent peak). In turn, that helped to bring yields down, with those on 2yr bunds down -2.7bps, while further out the curve yields on 10yr bunds (-1.2bps), OATs (-0.9bps) and BTPs (-1.2bps) saw more modest declines. However, equities slipped back slightly given the oil move, with the STOXX 600 down -0.05% by the close.
Finally in the UK, 10yr gilt yields (+3.4bps) saw a sharp move higher in the afternoon, driven by a Guardian story that former US ambassador Peter Mandelson had failed his security vetting clearance for that appointment, and the decision had been overruled by the Foreign Office. So that was seen as a problem for Prime Minister Starmer’s position, as he’d previously told the House of Commons that “full due process was followed”. That led to a negative market reaction, because the consensus view is that Starmer’s replacement would face pressure to ease the fiscal rules and borrow more, leading to higher gilt issuance. Meanwhile, gilts had been slightly underperforming even before that report, as data showed UK GDP grew by a monthly +0.5% in February (vs. +0.2% expected).
Looking at the day ahead, it’s a fairly quiet one, but central bank speakers include the Fed’s Daly, Barkin and Waller, the BoE’s Breeden and Bill, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 08:47