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Morgan Stanley: Oil Traders Are "More Precise" With Risk As Wars Drag On

By Michael Kern of OilPrice.com

Uncertainty about how the wars in Iran and Ukraine will unfold is keeping many traders away from taking positions in longer-dated futures contracts, according to Morgan Stanley.

Most traders have now moved to bet on futures prices within a three to six-month period, instead of longer-dated futures contracts, as volatility has spiked and uncertainty has grown regarding where the wars are going and how much they would continue to impact the global oil market.

“People have been more precise with their risk,” Brendan Ross, Co-Head Global Oil Trading at Morgan Stanley, said at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore on Wednesday, as carried by Bloomberg.

“They’ve decided what they really want and what’s an unexpected bleed,” Ross added.

Many traders are ditching too risky bets and are piling up in near-dated futures contracts as they don’t want to be caught on the wrong side of the longer-dated bets amid high uncertainty about the Iran and Ukraine wars, according to the expert.

This shift into near-dated futures has sapped liquidity in the longer-term contracts, Ross noted.

Meanwhile, speculators and portfolio managers have recently amassed bets in the fuel markets as these have been considerably tighter than the crude oil market. Hedge funds have gone from short on fuels early in the spring to long now, building a net long position of 177 million barrels across the most traded fuel contracts—gasoline and diesel—as of September 1, according to the latest available data from exchanges compiled by energy analyst John Kemp.

Speculators’ position on fuels is likely to remain strongly bullish in the coming weeks, reflecting the impossibility of replacing lost output from the Middle East and Russia with alternative supply because there is not enough production capacity elsewhere. So, U.S. inventories of diesel and, most notably, gasoline, will continue to draw from an already low point.

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An AI-Designed Drug Just Moved Six Different Aging Clocks At Once

An experimental drug designed using AI has produced measurable shifts toward a younger biological-age profile in patients.

Developed by Insilico Medicine, the drug - rentosertib - was initially engineered to treat idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), a progressive, age-associated lung-scarring disease. When researchers analyzed blood samples from a Phase IIa clinical trial, they applied six proteomic profiling "aging clocks" among 42 participants. All six detected reductions in predicted biological age, whereas the placebo group showed little change or slight increases. The most pronounced and consistent effects emerged around week four of treatment.

The study was authored by Insilico with academic collaborators from Harvard, Stanford, the Broad Institute, RWTH Aachen, Peking University and Westlake University.

Insilico used AI not only to identify a specific enzyme (TNIK) linked to both fibrosis and aging pathways, but also to generate and optimize the specific molecule designed to inhibit it. That dual application makes rentosertib a rare clinical test of AI uncovering a target case and building new therapeutics from scratch.

In the earlier Phase IIa, patients in the 60mg once-daily arm recorded a mean improvement in forced vital capacity of 98.4 milliliters against a mean decline of 20.3 milliliters on placebo. FVC declines with age in healthy people over 65 at roughly 20 to 50 milliliters a year, which is why Insilico treats it as a physiological aging marker as well as an efficacy endpoint.

Via nature.com. Click to expand

"If you manage to add 3 years to everyone's life, the drug should be able to significantly extend the healthy portion of life as well, translating into trillions of dollars in productivity and savings," said Alex Zhavoronkov, Insilico's founder and co-CEO.

And according to 2013 chemistry Nobel laureate Michael Levitt, "What convinces me is not the size of the effect but the agreement, because these models share neither their features nor their training data," he said of the six clocks reaching the same conclusion on the same 42 patients.

Rentosertib is no longer confined to early-stage laboratory work. In July, Insilico announced that the drug had entered a randomized Phase III trial, expected to enroll 320 IPF patients for a 52-week, once-daily regimen. That trial is designed to evaluate pulmonary-fibrosis efficacy and safety, not life extension - but it advances an AI-generated molecule into the final phase of clinical development. Of note - the study does not prove that rentosertib extends human lifespan or literally shaves years off a patient's age. But the clock results, the senescence and metabolic pathway shifts, and the dose-dependent FVC gains all point the same way, and more study is needed to understand the possibilities.

If the drug succeeds clinically, it validates AI-driven drug discovery, and offers a template for testing future medicines against both specific age-related diseases and the biomarkers of aging itself. If it fails in Phase III, the aging clocks will have been measuring a lung.

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