Visible maritime traffic through the Hormuz chokepoint remained subdued into the new week after Iranian forces allgedly targeted tankers attempting to transit the narrow waterway, including routes close to Oman. This comes as the US and Iran have been locked in a dangerous tit-for-tat escalation that has entered its ninth day.
UK maritime authorities reported an unverified vessel fire near Oman late Sunday. Reuters reports that Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed two crude oil tankers exploded and were immobilized while using what Tehran called an unsafe southern route in the Hormuz.
Bloomberg ship-tracking data shows that vessels crossing the Hormuz chokepoint have come to a near standstill as Gulf escalation has surged for the ninth day, with Iran targeting not just the maritime chokepoint but also US military assets at Jordan's Aqaba airport with ballistic missiles, as well as US assets at Kuwait's Al-Adiri camp and Ali Al Salem Air Base, and in Syria. Iran also hit civilian infrastructure, notably power generation and water desalination plants in Kuwait.
There is a power struggle for control over the critical strait. The US launched a series of airstrikes along the waterway to degrade Iran's offensive capabilities.
US Central Command said overnight that it had begun "a new wave of strikes" aimed at "degrading" Iran's ability to attack ships in the strait.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was quoted overnight by the outlet as saying that US forces would continue targeting Iran while it attacks global shipping lanes in the strait.
"The Strait of Hormuz are international waterways, and they continue to launch against the ships in that international waterway," Rubio said.
He continued, "As long as Iran insists on controlling an international waterway, we're gonna have to respond to that. The United States always remains open to a diplomatic solution."
In markets, Brent crude futures are flat this morning around 06:30 ET. Brent trades around $88 a barrel, while WTI futures are around $82.
Brent briefly traded above the $90 handle for the first time since early June in the overnight hours but has since reversed the move.
"A near-term escalation in the Mideast now appears to be the key left tail risk which could tip the index lower. Broader infrastructure strikes or a Houthi-led Red Sea disruption likely sees Brent over $100 again," UBS analyst Justinus Steinhorst noted, adding, "The desk's preferred hedges are long Mideast Resilient {UBXEMERR} and E&Ps {UBXEXPO}."
Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 06:55The lights went on at approximately 3pm on September 4, 1882 in New York City.
Thomas Edison (with major funding from JP Morgan) had spent roughly two years building the first-ever commercial power plant, located in Manhattan’s financial district. Its total capacity was about 600 kilowatts… barely enough to power a single rack of GPUs today.
But at the time it was nothing short of miraculous.
Edison’s coal-fired DC power plant initially served just 82 customers, and electricity was nothing more than a luxury flex by the ultra-wealthy.
But over time– especially after Westinghouse and Tesla’s alternating current became the gold standard– electrification rates in the United States skyrocketed.
At the turn of the 20th century, hardly anyone had electricity in their homes. By 1920, it was about 35%. By the time the Great Depression hit in 1929, roughly 70% of US homes were electrified, and urban areas were nearly 85%.
The systems were surprisingly reliable given the rudimentary technology of the day.
Blackouts were not infrequent, but they were generally short and localized, often just affecting a few streets or houses.
And typically the biggest reason for a short, localized blackout was simply because electrical demand was increasing more rapidly than the grid could create new supply. More and more homes were being electrified, and, after World War II, consumer appliances like refrigerators and air conditioners began consuming more power. We’ll come back to that.
In response, the industry began looking for efficiencies to be able to scale more quickly. They built larger, beefier power plants and connected their independent grids to be able to share reserves and load balance.
In short, they planned for speed and scale. Not resilience. And the end result was an incredibly complex network that was highly vulnerable to systemic failure.
That failure first came at 5:16pm on November 9, 1965: a minor maintenance issue near Niagara Falls triggered a chain reaction across the entire grid. 30 million people went without power– most until the next morning, some for a few days.
It was a wake-up call… and the first catastrophic grid failure of many more to come. So naturally the government stepped in to “fix” it.
With the electrical grid’s vulnerabilities laid bare, Congress held inquiries and hearings. New rules and regulations were passed. And, before long, the US electrical industry became a confusing alphabet soup of state, local, and federal authorities– ISOs and RTOs, FERC, PJM, MISO, CAISO, SPP, and so many more.
Layers and layers of bureaucratic agencies didn’t fix anything. But technology was quite fortunately on America’s side, and over the past few decades, advances (like LED bulbs) made consumer appliances more energy efficient. Power plants also became more productive.
In fact, today the US consumes less electricity per capita than it did in 1995. And the grid produces much more power.
But this balance is starting to change rapidly.
We all know the story of data centers and their insatiable appetites for energy. Electricity is such a critical input, in fact, that data centers are typically described by their power consumption.
For example, Softbank recently announced 5GW of new data centers in France. The famous StarGate project in the US is targeting 10GW. Facebook is building a 5GW data center in Louisiana.
And various plans over the next few years go in to several hundred gigawatts.
This trend is similar to the 1950s– utility companies struggled to keep up with surging demand from US consumers who were plugging in air conditioners and refrigerators for the first time.
But supply and demand in the electricity market is a funny thing. Demand can surge very quickly… just like we’ve seen over the past year or so. But electrical supply grows more slowly.
New power plants take years to build. Thanks to the aforementioned alphabet soup, the regulatory burden alone is a minefield.
And most electrical producers aren’t willing to go through the effort, risk, and capital expenditure unless they’re sure the new power plant will be profitable. And profitability depends on the price of electricity.
That’s where politicians and the regulators have stepped in to screw it all up.
Naturally, with demand soaring and supply constrained, electricity prices are rising. You’d think that politicians would respond by making it easier for utilities to build new power plants, i.e. reduce the regulatory and permitting process to increase electricity supply.
But no. Instead, they’re capping prices.
Last year, a whole lot of state officials and federal regulators got together to set a ceiling for certain wholesale electricity prices to roughly $333 per megawatt-day.
Clearly, they’re responding to voters’ demands to rein in inflation and reduce the cost of living.
Unfortunately, $333/MW-day isn’t high enough to justify investment in new power plants.
Existing power plants are old. Sometimes extremely old. They already own their land, and their construction loans are all paid off. So $333/MW-day is sufficient for them to pay for fuel, conduct maintenance, and turn a small profit.
But $333 isn’t enough to build a new plant– to cover the additional costs of construction, land purchases, permitting, etc.
In fact, the regulators themselves estimate that electricity prices need to be about $500/MW-day (i.e. 50% higher) to justify investment in new power plants.
This means there won’t be enough new commercial power plants built to sufficiently supply the grid. In fact the northeast grid (known as PJM) is already in a 6.5 GW deficit against its own reserve requirement for the first time ever, increasing the chance of failure next summer.
This is essentially a form of shrinkflation. i.e. paying the same amount of money but getting less for it. We’ve all seen it at grocery stores and restaurants– same price, smaller portions.
In this case, electricity prices are supposedly remaining flat. But you’re getting less for it– potential grid failure.
All because the maze of political and regulatory authorities won’t do the obvious thing and make it easy for new power plants to be built.
Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 06:30After last month's report from Goldman Sachs on the ongoing global nuclear renaissance listed only a couple headlines for the western nuclear industry, June saw a significant bounce back as the industry saw progress across the microreactor landscape and the larger SMR and national grid-scale designs.
The Micro Reactor Industry saw a huge achievement with the exceeding of the goals set by President Trump in the 2025 Executive Orders, with four microreactor designs obtaining criticality by July 4th.
The AP1000 reactor, which is emerging as America's flagship grid-scale design, also saw significant multi-billion-dollar support from the Department of Energy when the Office of Energy Dominance Financing put up a potential $17.5 billion in funding for long-lead components and other pieces/parts of the reactor supply chain.
Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Lee reviews headlines across the nuclear industry for June.
New reactor progress and announcements North America6/2/26 - United States - The New York Power Authority has launched a solicitation to develop at least 1 GW of advanced nuclear capacity in Upstate New York, seeking proposals for both large reactors and SMRs, while also committing $40 million to nuclear workforce development.
6/8/2026 - United States - FERC approved Constellation’s request to transfer 760 MW of interconnection rights to the Crane Clean Energy Center, helping support the planned restart of the former Three Mile Island Unit 1 and improving its ability to deliver power to the grid ahead of major transmission upgrades.
6/9/2026 - Canada - Bruce Power’s refurbished Bruce 3 reactor has returned to service in Canada, more than seven months ahead of schedule, following a major component replacement project that extends the unit’s operating life by over 30 years.
6/16/2026 - United States - The US NRC has approved an 80‑year operating life for the two reactors at Georgia Power’s Edwin I. Hatch nuclear plant, extending operations into the mid‑2050s. The licence renewal follows a review completed in under 12 months and supports the continued operation of one of Georgia’s key nuclear generating assets.
6/23/2026 - Canada - Canada has unveiled a national strategy that positions nuclear energy as a key part of its future energy mix, supporting the deployment of new large-scale reactors, SMRs, and an expanded domestic nuclear supply chain.
6/24/2026 - Canada - AtkinsRéalis has formally begun the US licensing process for its CANDU reactor technology, submitting a Notice of Intent to the NRC and marking the start of pre‑application engagement. The move supports potential deployment of the 700+ MW Enhanced CANDU 6 reactor in the US.
6/24/2026 - United States - The US DOE has conditionally committed up to $17.5bn in loans to support procurement of long‑lead components for up to 10 Westinghouse AP1000 reactors, aiming to accelerate reactor deployment and strengthen the domestic nuclear supply chain.
Europe6/16/2026 - Sweden - Nordic Baseload Power has applied for Swedish state support to build two large-scale reactors (~2.5 GW) at the former Barsebäck nuclear site, marking the fourth application under Sweden’s new nuclear support programme.
6/29/2026 - Germany - A group of former German nuclear plant managers and experts has urged the government to restart Germany’s nuclear power plants, arguing that reactivation is technically feasible and could improve energy security and electricity affordability.
6/30/2026 - Slovakia - Fuel loading has begun at Slovakia’s Mochovce 4 reactor, marking the start of active commissioning for the country’s fourth nuclear unit. The unit has now entered the testing and startup phase ahead of commercial operation.
7/8/2026 - Czech - The Czech Ministry of Industry and Trade said the Dukovany new‑build project remains on schedule one year after contracts were signed with KHNP, with geotechnical surveys completed, the first conceptual design submitted, and key Czech suppliers selected. The project is currently focused on licensing, permitting, and infrastructure work ahead of a targeted 2029 construction start.
7/9/2026 - UK - The UK government and EDF have agreed terms to extend the operating life of the Sizewell B nuclear plant by 20 years to 2055, with EDF committing £800 million of refurbishment investments to support long‑term operation.
Asia and other6/5/2026 - Japan - Japan has proposed replacing aging nuclear reactors to maintain its nuclear generation capacity, with the government targeting the replacement of up to 14 reactors by the 2050s as older units retire.
6/10/2026 - Russia - Russia is targeting a 2027 construction start for the BN‑1200 fast reactor at Beloyarsk, with site preparation under way and licensing expected in 2027. The project is currently targeted for completion in 2034.
6/19/2026 - India - India’s Tarapur Units 1 and 2, the world’s oldest operating nuclear reactors, have returned to the grid following extensive modernization and refurbishment. The two units, which had been offline since 2020, received major safety upgrades and regulatory approval to resume operation.
7/6/2026 - China - Taipingling Unit 2 has been connected to China’s grid for the first time, marking a key commissioning milestone for the 1,116 MWe Hualong One reactor. The unit is the second of six planned reactors at the Guangdong site and is expected to enter commercial operation in 2H26.
7/13/2026 - China - Changjiang Unit 3 has achieved first criticality, marking the startup of the 1,100 MWe Hualong One reactor at the Changjiang nuclear plant in China’s Hainan province. The unit has now entered the commissioning phase ahead of grid connection and commercial operation.
SMR announcement tracker6/3/2026 - UK - X‑energy has submitted its Xe‑100 high‑temperature gas‑cooled reactor for the UK’s GDA process, marking the start of formal regulatory review. The submission supports X‑energy and Centrica’s plans to develop up to 6 GW of new nuclear capacity in the country.
6/4/2026 - United States - US SMR developers announced a series of partnerships to advance reactor deployment, including Day & Zimmermann supporting pre‑construction and above‑ground construction for Deep Fission’s Gravity reactor, while Sciaky will manufacture components for NX Atomics’ SMR platform using additive manufacturing technology.
6/5/2026 - Sweden - Blykalla has applied for Swedish government financing for its planned six‑reactor SEALER SMR plant in Norrsundet, the first advanced nuclear project submitted under Sweden’s new nuclear support framework. The proposed plant would have up to 330 MWe of capacity and could enter operation in the early 2030s, subject to approvals and investment decisions.
6/5/2026 - Uzbekistan - Uzbekistan has marked the start of construction of its first SMR, with a ceremony for first concrete at the Jizzakh nuclear project. The project features Russia’s RITM‑200N reactor technology and represents a key milestone in Uzbekistan’s nuclear power programme.
6/5/2026 - United States - Antares Nuclear’s Mark‑0 microreactor has achieved first criticality at Idaho National Laboratory, becoming the first reactor to reach this milestone under the US DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program. The demonstration validates the company’s microreactor technology and marks an important step toward future advanced reactor deployment.
6/9/2026 - Romania - DP World has launched a feasibility study into deploying SMRs at Romania’s Port of Constanța, evaluating whether nuclear power could support the port’s long‑term energy needs, growth, and decarbonisation goals.
6/11/2026 - United States - DOE has approved the PDSA for Oklo’s Aurora reactor at Idaho National Laboratory, a key regulatory milestone under the DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program. The approval advances the project toward deployment by validating the reactor’s preliminary safety basis.
6/12/2026 - Sweden - Studsvik has applied for Swedish state support to develop up to 1.4 GW of SMR capacity in southern Sweden, with potential projects at Nyköping and Valdemarsvik based on light‑water reactor technology. The company is targeting first operation in the second half of the 2030s.
6/15/2026 - Sweden - Videberg Kraft has selected Rolls‑Royce SMR technology for its planned nuclear project on Sweden’s Värö Peninsula, with plans to deploy three SMRs. The project would be Sweden’s first new nuclear power plant in more than 40 years, with the first unit targeted for the mid‑2030s.
6/17/2026 - UK - Core Power has launched a feasibility study to assess BWXT’s mPower SMR for use in floating nuclear power plants, evaluating the technical, regulatory, and commercial viability of deploying the 195 MWe reactor in shipyard-built floating power platforms.
6/17/2026 - UK - TerraPower’s Natrium reactor has entered the UK’s GDA process, marking the start of formal regulatory review for the 345 MWe sodium‑cooled fast reactor. The move advances TerraPower’s plans for potential deployment in the UK and follows the company’s submission to the UK regulators earlier this year.
6/19/2026 - United States - Elementl Power has selected GE Vernova Hitachi’s BWRX‑300 SMR technology for a proposed 1.5GW nuclear project in Ohio, with plans for up to five reactors at a site. The company has already filed for grid interconnection and is targeting construction in 2030 and completion of the first unit in 2034.
6/22/2026 - United States - Valar Atomics’ Ward 250 microreactor has achieved criticality under the US DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program, becoming the second reactor to meet the programme’s July 2026 target. The 5 MW TRISO‑fuelled, helium‑cooled reactor completed a zero‑power criticality demonstration at the Utah San Rafael Energy Lab.
6/24/2026 - UK - Holtec and EDF have submitted a proposal to deploy up to four SMR‑300 reactors at the former Cottam power station site in the UK. The companies have also agreed to form a joint venture to advance the project, which would repurpose the former coal plant site for new nuclear generation.
6/29/2026 - Sweden - Blykalla and Hitachi Energy have signed an MoU to support deployment of Blykalla’s lead‑cooled SEALER SMRs, combining reactor technology with Hitachi’s expertise in electrification, grid integration, and digital energy systems.
6/30/2026 - Poland - Orlen Synthos Green Energy has applied for a Contract for Difference to support the construction of 14 BWRX‑300 SMRs across three sites in Poland, marking a key financing milestone for its SMR programme.
7/2/2026 - UK - SGE and a consortium including Samsung C&T, Laing O’Rourke, Aecon and Google Cloud have proposed deploying 14 GE Hitachi BWRX‑300 SMRs across three UK sites, representing 4.2 GW of capacity. The privately financed project targets first commercial operation in 2034, with the initial site planned to host six reactors and two additional sites hosting four reactors each.
7/2/2026 - United States - Deployable Energy’s Unity demonstration reactor has achieved initial criticality at Idaho National Laboratory, becoming the third US microreactor to reach the milestone ahead of the DOE’s 4 July target.
7/3/2026 - Finland - Finland’s nuclear regulator has completed an international safety review of Steady Energy’s LDR‑50 SMR design, with regulators from the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden, and Ukraine participating in the assessment. The review found no fundamental obstacles to further development of the reactor concept, while providing feedback to support future licensing work.
7/7/2026 - UK - Chiltern Vital Group and Cambridge Atomworks have signed a LoI to explore building the prototype Odin microreactor at the Berkeley Green Science and Technology Park in England. The project would support testing and regulatory development of the molten‑salt‑cooled microreactor, with Cambridge Atomworks targeting an operational prototype by 2030.
7/7/2026 - United States - Aalo Atomics’ Critical Test Reactor achieved initial criticality at Idaho National Laboratory, becoming the fourth US microreactor to reach the milestone by the DOE’s 4 July 2026 target.
7/8/2026 - United States - Deep Fission has received its prototype reactor canister at its Kansas pilot site, marking a key milestone for development of its Gravity reactor, which is designed to place a nuclear reactor in a borehole about a mile underground. The canister will be used in the company’s proof‑of‑concept program to validate installation, infrastructure, and deployment processes ahead of a future commercial demonstration.
7/8/2026 - USA, Japan & South Korea - The US, Japan, and South Korea have signed a trilateral agreement to accelerate SMR deployment in third countries, initially focusing on the Indo‑Pacific region. The framework aims to coordinate financing, supply chains, licensing, and industry partnerships to support fleet‑scale SMR deployment and expand access to nuclear energy.
7/10/2026 - United States - Argentina has announced plans for a privately financed 300 MWe ACR‑300 SMR at the Atucha site, with US‑based Meitner Energy planning to invest $1.2bn in the project. The reactor would be the first commercial ACR‑300 and the first nuclear reactor in Argentina financed entirely with private capital, marking a major investment in the country’s nuclear sector.
Global reactor critical updatesIn the month of June, there have been few changes to new reactor construction starts, grid connections, shutdowns, or restarts.
Global reactor construction tracker Fuel announcements6/1/2026 - United States - Cameco and Orano have agreed to acquire TEPCO’s remaining 5% stake in the Cigar Lake uranium mine, giving the two companies full ownership of the project. Following the transaction, Cameco’s stake will increase to 57.4% and Orano’s to 42.6%, further consolidating ownership of one of the world’s highest‑grade uranium mines.
6/2/2026 - United States - Urenco has announced a multi‑billion‑dollar investment to build a new uranium enrichment plant at its New Mexico site, adding 2.1 million SWU of capacity and increasing output by nearly 50%. Construction is planned to begin in 2029, with first production targeted for 2032, supporting US nuclear fuel supply as reactor deployment grows.
6/8/2026 - Mongolia - Orano has started construction of the Zuuvch Ovoo uranium project in Mongolia, following a 2025 investment agreement with the Mongolian government. The project is expected to produce ~2,500 tonnes of uranium per year over a 30‑year mine life.
6/9/2026 - India - Fuel for the initial loading of Kudankulam Unit 4 has been manufactured and accepted by NPCIL, marking a key milestone toward commissioning of the VVER‑1000 reactor.
6/9/2026 - Australia - Ampera will use thorium sourced from Australia to fuel its advanced microreactor systems, supporting its strategy to vertically integrate fuel supply and in‑house TRISO fuel production.
6/12/2026 - Canada - Denison Mines has marked the start of site preparation and early construction at the Phoenix ISR uranium project in Saskatchewan, following final regulatory approvals and a positive investment decision. The project is targeting first uranium production in mid‑2028.
6/17/2026 - UK - The UK will guarantee a £210 million loan to support Urenco’s supply of enriched uranium to Energoatom, helping secure fuel for Ukraine’s nuclear fleet over the next two years.
6/17/2026 - Sweden - Sweden’s parliament has approved amendments to nuclear legislation that streamline permitting for uranium mining and open up more coastal locations for potential nuclear projects, further supporting the country’s plans to expand nuclear power and domestic fuel supply.
6/18/2026 - United States - Shine and Newcleo have agreed to collaborate on recycling used nuclear fuel, linking Shine’s fuel‑reprocessing technology with Newcleo’s reactors and MOX fuel capabilities to support a closed nuclear fuel cycle.
6/19/2026 - United States - Centrus has agreed to supply HALEU to Oklo for up to five Aurora reactors, with deliveries expected to begin in 2029 from its Ohio enrichment facility. The agreement strengthens fuel supply certainty for Oklo’s planned reactor deployments and is among the first large‑scale commercial HALEU supply agreements in the US.
6/24/2026 - Russia - Rosatom is studying the construction of a high‑capacity nuclear fuel reprocessing plant with an initial capacity of 400 tonnes per year, with investment and site selection decisions expected by the end of 2026.
6/25/2026 - United States - Lightbridge has removed the first batch of its irradiated fuel samples from Idaho National Laboratory’s Advanced Test Reactor, marking a key milestone in the testing of its advanced nuclear fuel technology. The samples will now undergo post‑irradiation examination to support fuel performance validation and future regulatory licensing efforts.
6/26/2026 - Italy - Italy’s Sogin has begun re‑encapsulating 64 uranium‑thorium fuel elements at the Rotondella site for long‑term dry storage, marking a key decommissioning milestone for the facility.
6/26/2026 - United States - US uranium production more than doubled in 2025 to 1.39mn lbs U3O8, the highest level in nine years, according to the EIA, also uranium exploration and development drilling reached their highest levels since 2013.
6/30/2026 - United States - Urenco USA has brought a fifth new enrichment cascade online at its New Mexico facility, as part of a program to add 700,000 SWU of capacity by early 2027. The expansion is progressing ahead of schedule and on budget.
7/1/2026 - United States - The US NRC has renewed the source materials licence for enCore Energy’s Dewey Burdock uranium project for another 20 years, completing the federal permitting process for the South Dakota ISR project. The company is now pursuing final state permits ahead of construction and future production.
7/3/2026 - United States - Radiant has delivered the first TRISO fuel shipment for testing of its Kaleidos microreactor at Idaho National Laboratory, enabling full‑power, full‑temperature testing this summer. The testing programme will support performance validation and help advance the reactor’s commercial licensing pathway.
7/9/2026 - India - Australia and India have finalized the arrangements needed to enable Australian uranium exports to India for peaceful civilian use under their long‑standing nuclear cooperation agreement. The deal opens a new uranium supply source for India and supports its plans to expand nuclear power generation.
7/9/2026 - Finland - Framatome has signed an eight‑year fuel supply agreement with TVO for Finland’s Olkiluoto 3 (OL3) reactor, strengthening long‑term fuel security for the plant. The deal also includes an option to adopt Framatome’s GAIA fuel design and supports longer operating cycles of up to two years at OL3.
Uranium pricing and volume trackersSpot pricing remained broadly range-bound. Spot U3O8 prices softened through early June, easing from ~$86/lb to the mid‑$84s before recovering into the mid‑$85s through the middle of the month. Prices drifted modestly lower again toward month‑end, finishing June around ~$85/lb and remaining largely unchanged through early July. Market activity was subdued throughout the period, with trading volumes concentrated in a limited number of transactions and overall price movements remaining relatively narrow.
Term pricing firm. Term pricing strengthened through June, with the long‑term price increasing to $94/lb by end of June from $93/lb at the start of the month, reinforcing the view that longer term pricing remains well supported despite softer spot market activity. Market engagement continued across the term market, with utilities evaluating mid‑ and long‑term supply requirements and several new contracting opportunities emerging. Overall, longer‑dated price indicators remained resilient, with forward prices continuing to reflect supportive long‑term market fundamentals.
Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 05:45Authored by Mani Basharzad via the Foundation for Economic Education,
Samuel Johnson once wrote that “when a man is tired of London, he is tired of life.” Today, however, there seems to be one group that is tired of London: millionaires.
In the last week of June 2026, one of the world’s most famous antique fairs, the Treasure House Fair, took place in London, attracting collectors and dealers from around the globe. But this year, what attracted attention wasn’t only the antiques; it was the drop in foot traffic. At the time, the New York Times reported that “many dealers are facing a significant drop in foot traffic, or can no longer afford to have a showroom at all.”
The lack of customers for high-end items hints at the shift—the UK has recently surpassed China as the world leader in millionaire emigration. In 2025, roughly 16,500 millionaires left the country. China ranked second, with fewer than half that number. But Samuel Johnson should take note, because these millionaires aren’t tired of life; they’re tired of a mission-led government.
When the Labour government came to power in 2024, it had a clear vision of the model of governance it wanted to pursue: mission-led government. Following the advice of Mariana Mazzucato (professor in the Economics of Innovation and Public Value at University College, London), the government embraced the idea that the state should become more entrepreneurial, stop viewing public spending as merely an expense, and subsidize key sectors in pursuit of a mission-directed economy.
After nearly two years, one lesson has become clear: nothing is worse for entrepreneurs than an entrepreneurial state.
One simple fact about mission-directed governance is that it requires more money—and that money has to come from somewhere. Since taking office, the government has introduced £40 billion ($53.4 billion) in tax rises in its first budget and added £186 billion ($248 billion) to the national debt, which is now close to the UK’s annual GDP.
Labour’s mistake began from the outset. It assumed that Britain’s fundamental problem was simply that the government didn’t spend enough. Chancellor Rachel Reeves argued that “the only way to drive economic growth is to invest, invest, invest. There are no shortcuts.” But the mission Reeves’s government believes in is not necessarily the mission Britain’s businesses believe in.
Mariana Mazzucato’s mission-driven model has attracted supporters from across the political spectrum—from the nationalist right, which wants to revive American manufacturing, to the left, which wants to achieve net zero or reduce inequality. But the central problem remains: Which mission should we choose?
Mazzucato herself might prioritize net zero, inclusive employment, or reducing inequality. But achieving any mission requires the government to direct economic outcomes. As Friedrich Hayek famously warned, “To be controlled in our economic pursuits means to be controlled in everything.” Every government mission requires government direction. Yet governments lack the knowledge to determine which direction an economy should take, as the Labour government’s experience already illustrates. If politicians truly knew which industries represented the future, they probably wouldn’t be in government. As Deirdre McCloskey has asked social engineers: If you’re so smart that you know where the economy should go, why aren’t you rich?
The consequence of this mission-led approach has been an ever-growing search for new sources of tax revenue. As one cabinet minister reportedly complained in a leaked WhatsApp message, “Every meeting I have is who can we tax in order to pay benefits to others.”
That mindset has helped drive millionaires out of the UK; but it’s not confined to Labour alone. In March 2024, the previous Conservative government abolished the long-standing non-domicile tax regime, ending tax exemptions on foreign income and gains. Then came further increases to capital gains tax, inheritance tax, and corporation tax. Someone has to pay for the mission, I suppose.
The outlook also appears increasingly uncertain. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has resigned, and Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Manchester, has become the new prime minister, after returning to the House of Commons by winning in the Makerfield by-election. Journalist Andrew Neil once remarked that every time Burnham “opens his mouth, he adds to public spending.”
Markets no longer appear to trust the government’s fiscal direction. UK government bond yields are now the highest in the G7, and the borrowing costs that forced Liz Truss from office after less than two months have become the new normal.
But what the Labour government needs isn’t more public spending. It needs a theory of growth. Growth does not require an entrepreneurial state. It requires a government willing to step aside. The UK government wants to be entrepreneurial while also redistributive, to raise taxes while remaining business-friendly. The new prime minister tellingly described his ideology as “business-friendly socialism.”
Economic growth does not emerge from offices in Whitehall. It emerges from the garages, workshops, and start-ups of entrepreneurs. Growth has microeconomic foundations: businesses take risks because they expect to enjoy the rewards of success, not to see them redistributed elsewhere.
The government does not need to push entrepreneurs, assign them missions, or direct their investments. What Professor Mazzucato and the Labour government fail to appreciate is that the great strength of the free market is precisely that it has no single mission or master plan. Instead, it is guided by millions of individuals pursuing different plans, each tested through competition.
Britain should once again embrace individual autonomy in economic life, and reject politicians who believe they know better than everyone else which direction the economy should take.
Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 05:00The evolution of autonomous warfare will center on teams of FPV drones, unmanned aircraft, and ground robots operating across a single network. Our view is that the battlefield of the 2030s has already been pulled forward by conflicts across Eurasia, from the Russia-Ukraine war to the US-Iran conflict.
It was only a matter of time before Ukrainian forces paired heavy UAVs with unmanned ground vehicles to conduct offensive missions deep inside no-man's-land, where the majority of deaths are caused by kamikaze drones. Swamping human soldiers with robotics has been the evolution of warfare.
With FPVs now responsible for the majority of battlefield casualties, combining aerial and ground robotic systems will become the new normal.
X user Drone Wars published a new video that shows a Ukrainian UAV airlifting a UGV deep into the front lines.
Footage reportedly shows a Ukrainian heavy UAV carrying a small unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) suspended beneath it. pic.twitter.com/IBDxbGtrFy
— Drone Wars (@Drone_Wars_) July 18, 2026A separate account, Counter Unmanned Systems, showcased the possible UGV featured in the video above.
"Meet GNOM from Polish firm Macro-System ( @macro_system_ms ). With speed up to 80 km/h and weighing 7 kg with warhead is a light weight attritable system that has been part of various European armed force exercises," Counter Unmanned Systems wrote in the X post.
Ground Loitering Munition
🇵🇱Meet GNOM from Polish firm Macro-System (@macro_system_ms). With speed up to 80 km/h and weighing 7 kg with warhead is a light weight attritable system that has been part of various European armed force exercises.
More on GNOM >>… pic.twitter.com/dchzZrnFiO
The combination of aerial drones and ground robots working together was inevitable.
The deeper national security threat is the democratization of this technology. Drones, once restricted to militaries, can now be assembled and produced using commercially available parts, 3D printers, and components sourced through Chinese supply chains.
Drones spreading to the Americas:
Easy to purchase, even on Facebook:
Those low barriers to entry will only ensure that these drones spread far beyond Eurasia's war zones and into the hands of proxy forces, insurgent groups and terrorist networks worldwide. The battlefield of the 2030s is already being built from commercially available parts.
The world is becoming a dark and dangerous place as robots become weaponized. Humanoids will be next.
Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 04:15Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,
Europe's heatwave is disrupting energy and transport, with low river levels restricting barge traffic on the Rhine and driving up shipping costs for fuel, coal, and other goods.
High river temperatures have forced France to cut nuclear power generation, reducing electricity output as reactors face cooling constraints.
The extreme weather is adding to Europe's energy challenges, increasing inflationary pressures and threatening economic growth alongside ongoing disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
The intense early summer heatwave in Europe is warming the biggest rivers and drying up their water levels, disrupting energy deliveries, power generation, and key supply chain routes.
The heatwaves in Europe started as early as June, with record-breaking temperatures for weeks on end in Europe’s biggest economies, Germany and France.
As a result, rainfall was severely limited, and key inland transportation river routes were affected by navigation restrictions, with curbs on the freight volumes a barge can ship. This, in turn, has raised shipping costs and added additional strains to the economies at a time when the protracted Strait of Hormuz crisis is already hiking Europe’s energy costs and inflation.
On top of economic and inflationary effects in Germany, the heatwave actually curbed electricity supply in France.
Early this week, France’s nuclear power generation was slashed by 6.4 gigawatts (GW), or about 14% of the country’s total power demand for the day, amid the heatwave that hiked river temperatures and limited the ability of the nuclear power plants to use the water to cool reactors.
This is not the first time France has had to curb output at reactors and limit nuclear power production due to high summer temperatures.
France still exported electricity to its neighbors despite reduced nuclear power output, but these events appear to be becoming more frequent as heatwaves last longer with more extreme temperatures.
The same goes for disruption to shipping on the 800-mile-long Rhine River, the biggest inland shipping corridor in Europe, which is critically important for Germany’s and central Europe’s supply of coal, diesel, and goods.
The Rhine handles an enormous amount of supplies for Europe, including fuel and coal, adding to supply chain issues that the Hormuz crisis has created for sea routes.
The Rhine River, which runs northwest from Switzerland through Germany, France, and the Netherlands into the North Sea, is a major petroleum product transportation corridor in Europe. Due to the heatwaves and drought, the levels on the river are low and have now become too shallow for many barges shipping petroleum products to pass. Barges are not being fully loaded to keep them lighter on the water, which lifts shipping costs and delays shipments of coal, fuels, and other goods.
The Kaub gauge, on the Middle Rhine between Koblenz and Mainz, sits at the shallowest chokepoint on the river. It sets the maximum draft and, therefore, the laden weight for every barge moving between the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp ARA seaports and the industrial hinterland of the Rhine valley, shared by Germany, France, and Switzerland.
The previous major crisis with low Rhine water levels was in 2022, and in 2018 before that.
The 2022 critically low Rhine levels occurred when the first energy crisis hit Europe and its economy after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This summer, the low Rhine level due to scarce rainfall and intense heatwaves coincides with the Middle East crisis to mount additional pressure on industry, energy supply and prices, transportation costs, and ultimately, inflation.
Water level at the Kaub chokepoint is now at its lowest level in decades for mid-July, which has hiked the freight cost to ship diesel from Rotterdam to southern Germany by more than 50% in the past week.
The early heatwaves and low river levels could pressure Germany’s industry and economy, which has just managed to shake off the initial shock from the Middle East crisis.
Back in 2018, the low Rhine levels in November 2018 led to a 1.5% decline in Germany’s industrial production, which in turn lowered Germany’s GDP by 0.4%, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
This year, the end-June heatwave cost the German economy more than $6.8 billion, or 6 billion euros, an exclusive analysis by economic research firm Prognos for German business daily Handelsblatt showed this week.
In the future, Germany could see three or four intense heatwaves each summer with temperatures exceeding 35 C, or 95 F. Prognos has estimated that Germany could lose 1 billion euros, or $1.14 billion, on each day in which temperatures exceed 35 C. Thus, the annual damage to the German economy could top 20 billion euros, or $23 billion.
Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 03:30