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"Not Behind Us": Major US Tool Distributor Warns Tungsten Cost Shock Is Hitting Factory Floors
Speaking at the Jefferies Industrials Conference earlier on Wednesday, MSC Industrial executive Martina McIsaac warned of a tungsten supply shock rippling through the company's supply chain and continuing to drive up industrial tooling costs.
McIsaac told Steve Volkmann, an industrial analyst at Jefferies, that inflation affecting tungsten carbide inputs is "in the neighborhood of 500%" and said suppliers were still passing higher costs through the manufacturing chain.
Cutting tools represent about 15% of MSC's revenue, making tungsten a major source of pricing pressure for one of the largest industrial distributors of tools and supplies across North America used by factories and machine shops. Notably, Grainger and Fastenal are larger by revenue.
"Tungsten has been the biggest driver," McIsaac said. "It's not our whole business, but it's a chunk of business, and it's not behind us."
Volkmann asked McIsaac: "Okay. And you said that it wasn't over yet, but I believe tungsten prices have flattened out a bit."
McIsaac responded: "They have stabilized, but the ripples through the supply chain aren't over yet. So some suppliers, for example, depending on where they source their tungsten powder and how much they had on hand, the cadence of their increases is all different. So every supplier is behaving a little differently, but there's still a way to come. I think we said in the third quarter, we expected late ... our late fourth quarter, early first quarter, there would be another price increase."
MSC sells tungsten-carbide cutting tools used to machine metal parts across North America. McIsaac's comments offer one of the first examples we've found of how the severe tungsten shortage, driven by China's export restrictions and continued Western demand, is pressuring industrial customers. Prices have climbed above $3,000, according to a recent Cantor Fitzgerald note.
China's dominance of tungsten production has certainly exposed a major vulnerability in Western manufacturing and defense supply chains.
The latest Katusa Research note puts China's share of global tungsten mine production at roughly 79% last year, or 67,000 tons out of 85,000 tons worldwide. The US has had no commercial mine production since 2015.
Beijing's February 2025 export-licensing requirements intensified that dependence. Katusa cites a nearly 70% decline in Chinese exports of ammonium paratungstate, or APT, through the first 11 months of 2025.
Rotterdam APT prices jumped from around $390 per metric ton unit at the beginning of 2025 to roughly $3,400 this spring, according to Katusa Research.
Citing Financial Times reporting, Katusa said that Chinese traders have panic-hoarded carbide inserts, drill bits and worn tooling, sometimes bidding as much as five times normal market prices.
Christian Keller, Barclays' global head of economics research, co-authored a note on Tuesday warning that "China's quasi-monopolistic position provides it with significant geopolitical leverage."
The end result has been a mad dash across the West, from governments to importers, to secure tungsten supplies outside China ahead of any further tightening of Chinese supply. However, there is only one problem...
Companies that can bring supply online sooner could capture a crucial early market advantage, including Almonty as it ramps up tungsten production in South Korea.
Jefferies initiates critical mineral companies Almonty, Materion, USA Rare Earth and Neo Performance with Buy; the firms are expected to benefit from increased demand for supply outside of China.
Almonty (buy, PT $26.25)
Sees Almonty offering public exposure to Western tungsten…
Deliverable supplies of critical materials from outside China can command a higher premium, reinforcing our broader decoupling theme. Our view is to identify companies positioned to bring new supplies to market as governments and manufacturers rebuild supply chains on an ex-China basis.
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D.C. Gas Ban Gets Favorable Hearing In Federal Appeals Court
Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,
A federal appeals panel appeared inclined Tuesday to let Washington, D.C.'s restrictions on natural gas in certain new buildings stand.
The case turns on the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, or EPCA, which gives the Department of Energy authority to set efficiency and energy-use standards for appliances including furnaces, water heaters, dryers and stoves. Industry groups argue that D.C. cannot accomplish through a building code what federal law prevents it from doing directly to an appliance.
The challengers include the National Association of Home Builders, Restaurant Law Center, National Apartment Association, Maryland Building Industry Association, Washington Gas and two labor unions.
D.C.'s Clean Buildings Act requires certain newly constructed or substantially improved buildings to operate at zero energy beginning in 2027. The building standards effectively prohibit natural-gas appliances in covered properties.
U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes upheld the law in March. Her ruling found that EPCA regulates how much energy covered appliances consume, not whether a local government permits those appliances to be installed in a particular building.
Bloomberg Law reported Tuesday that the D.C. Circuit panel appeared similarly unconvinced by the industry groups' preemption argument during oral arguments.
Federal appeals courts are already split on essentially the same question.
The Ninth Circuit struck down Berkeley, California's natural-gas piping ban in 2024, finding that a city could not evade EPCA by eliminating the fuel supply needed to operate federally regulated appliances. That ruling covers nine Western states.
The Second Circuit went the other direction in June. It upheld New York City and New York State restrictions on fossil-fuel appliances, finding that EPCA preempts appliance energy-conservation standards but does not prevent governments from prohibiting certain appliances altogether.
Washington's case gives the D.C. Circuit the same statutory language and two competing appellate interpretations.
For builders, restaurants and gas utilities, the result determines whether D.C.'s 2027 requirements stand. For the natural gas industry, another ruling against preemption would leave Berkeley increasingly isolated - and gas appliance rules dependent on which federal circuit a building happens to sit in.
Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 20:55UK needs new laws for AI in healthcare, says watchdog
Iran State Media Says 'Enemy' Attacks On Southern Iran Overnight
- Iran state media: 'Enemy' attacks on southern Iran overnight
- Trump: "This war will end immediately after our election."
- Iran escalates with "20 for 2" response doctrine: 20 targets for every 2-3 targets struck.
- Iran sets heightened conditions for war's end: Tehran calls for an end to attacks, Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, an end to the Yemen blockade, and release of $24B in frozen assets.
- Shipping attacked: A tanker carrying 2M barrels of Iraqi oil was hit by a drone in Iraqi waters.
- Damage assessment in wake of overnight assaults: CENTCOM denies US warships were hit while saying 10 Iranian tankers have been destroyed. Regional reports say Jordan bases hit hard.
- Oil tops $100: Brent crude surpassed $100/barrel as markets see prolonged Gulf disruptions and little hope for a diplomatic off-ramp.
Yes 20% · No 81%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* * *
Iran says 'Enemy' Attacks on Southern IranUnconfirmed reports out of the Gulf region have been flying all evening about explosions heard in and around the Strait of Hormuz and southern Iran.
Iran state media is overnight reporting that ‘enemy’ projectiles hit Sirik areas, in mainland southern Iran. The city has been hit before during the height of prior US airstrikes. Al Jazeera summarizes of the emerging state reports:
- Projectiles have hit several areas in Iran’s Sirik, with multiple explosions heard across the coastal region, including Minab County and Qeshm Island, Iranian state media report.
Circumstances are still murky and ultimately unconfirmed, also as to the cause of the explosions.
Trump on 'War' Ending 'Immediately'New Trump remarks on Iran... Note that he called it a "war" (no less than twice in the below clip) - contradicting the White House's own stance (Sept. 4: Trump said don't call it a war, instead: "I call it a military conflict because it's small potatoes for us.":
Q: Do you expect negotiations with Iran to restart at some point?
Trump: Uhhhhhh... we're not looking for it to be honest with you. This war will end immediately after our election.
And meanwhile, back to the below laughably implausible headlines...
Pakistani Ambassador says they believe that a better understanding will soon be achieved between the US and Iran, reports ISNA
But don't Republicans actually need the war to end before Congressional elections?
Trump on Iran: I think the war will end immediately after the election. They’re desperate to affect the election. pic.twitter.com/31VEeI0tjO
— Acyn (@Acyn) September 9, 2026More on high prices at the pump and the question of nuclear weapons... however, the war itself has only made this a greater uncertainty, as Washington has not achieved any prime objectives - and the status of the Iranian nuclear program remains unknown...
Reporter: You said that oil and gas prices were going to come down. Oil is now back above 100 dollars. How do you explain this to Americans?
Trump: It’s very easy to explain to Americans: all you have to do is say, will you let Iran have a nuclear weapon? The answer is no. pic.twitter.com/HFldzUtrbo
Amid the dramatic escalation which kicked off since Tuesday night, Iran is seeking to impose new conditions on the United States. While continuing to vow a 'disproportionate response' to any attack moving forward, Tehran is now identifying specifics.
IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi states Wednesday, "The imposed war, which involved the world's most powerful nations, has ended in certain periods, but the nature of the conflict continues. For the first time, this conflict has directly inflicted strategic damage on the United States, impacting the country's security and economic equations."
He issued the following list for the US to reach an end to the conflict. "If the enemy desires an end to this situation, they must"...
- completely cease the war
- refrain from further threats
- withdraw the Israeli army from Lebanon
- end the siege of Yemen
- release the $24 billion of Iranian assets that have been frozen
- cease any interference in the country's nuclear and missile programs
This definitely marks a raised bar, to be sure, after this summer the MoU complete ceased, and negotiations vanished. There's no way Washington complies with even half of the conditions, at this rate.
Importantly, Mohebbi also said: "We have reached a point where if the enemy strikes at 2 or 3 of our targets, we will respond forcefully by striking at 20."
Tanker Attacked in Iraq Territory Waters, After CENTCOM Insists US Warships Not HitAfter a huge Iranian ballistic missile launch on US bases in Jordan overnight, CENTCOM has yet to respond in any major way. The Pentagon has also said all US troops "are accounted for" - but this doesn't necessarily mean there were no casualties. However, CENTCOM is at the moment denying that the Iranians hit US warships, as the IRGC has been claiming since Tuesday, in an oddly specific statement: The IRGC claims to have targeted and inflicted "significant damage" on a pair of US warships in the Gulf of Oman: DDG-119 USS Delbert D. Black and DDG-53 USS John Paul Jones, both Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.
CENTCOM responded: "No U.S. Navy warship has been struck; all IRGC attempted attacks failed." It added on X, "Meanwhile, U.S. forces have successfully destroyed 10 Iranian tankers in just the last week. These vessels were part of a multibillion-dollar shadow network that funds the IRGC, and Iran cannot defend them."
Meanwhile, Iran's military is continuing to go on the offensive, seeking to maintain its leverage over the contested Strait of Hormuz.
"A Panama-flagged tanker carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi fuel oil was struck today by a drone in Iraqi territorial waters, two port officials say," Reuters reports. "Iraqi rescue boats extinguished a fire aboard the tanker, New Andros, and there are no reports of casualties, port officials tell Reuters."
💢 BREAKING: A Panama-flagged tanker carrying about 2 million barrels of Iraqi fuel oil was struck by a drone in Iraqi territorial waters, according to two Iraqi port officials cited by Reuters journalist Ahmed Rasheed. The vessel and extent of the damage were not immediately… https://t.co/3ciZBBGgg7
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) September 9, 2026 Brent Crude Futures Top $100Brent crude futures topped $100 a barrel for the first time since July as US strikes on Iranian oil tankers and renewed attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and a US base in Jordan suggested to UBS energy specialist Dominic Ellis that a "US-Iran off-ramp remains elusive."
Ellis adds more color on the overnight Gulf developments and response in the crude oil market:
Brent topped $100/bbl as the US and Iran continue to trade strikes around the Strait of Hormuz.
The US says it has destroyed multiple Iranian vessels (including 5 on Sept. 8) in response to Iranian attacks, and says it will respond to each subsequent Iranian hit (actual or attempted) by destroying another Iranian tanker.
CENTCOM forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers, Sept. 8, after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted a U.S. Navy warship with ballistic missiles twice over the past two days. The U.S. warship successfully evaded the attempted Iranian attacks and… pic.twitter.com/Gi8a2tloN1
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) September 8, 2026Iran hit a US base in Jordan, and has stepped up attacks on the US' regional allies, with Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure under particular pressure.
Some investors have shown signs of wanting to fade the rally in oil and related equities, but the change in tone from all concerned makes it seem less likely (if not impossible) that we will see a return to the de-escalation narrative that has historically triggered a drop in oil and profit-taking in equities.
With the tailwind into Q3 numbers for the integrated energy sector, I think most will be inclined to leave long positions open until there is evidence of real progress back toward a diplomatic off ramp.
Iran has reportedly rejected the latest US offer of talks, and the conflict seems likely to support oil at current levels and potentially push prices higher in the near term.
The global crude benchmark broke above $100 a barrel in European trading but initially failed to hold the level. Just over an hour later, at around 4:36 a.m. ET, Brent reclaimed triple digits and extended gains to $100.83 by around 6:00 a.m. ET.
Price ForecastsGoldman's head commodity strategist, Daan Struyven, wrote in a note on Monday that, given the renewed turmoil in the Gulf region, he raised his Brent/WTI price forecasts by $5 to $85/$80 for December 2026 and to $80/$75 for 2027, on the assumption that Mideast shipping disruptions continue into 2027.
Struyven outlined significant net upside price risks with two Gulf output and Brent scenarios:
- Price upside scenario: Brent might exceed $120/bbl if 2027 average Gulf output remains 4mb/d below pre-war levels, versus 0.5mb/d below in the base case. The bank views more intense shipping attacks in Hormuz and the Red Sea as the most likely driver of this lower-output, higher-price scenario.
- Price downside scenario: Brent might decline into the $60s in 2027 if 2027 average Gulf output rises 1mb/d above pre-war levels. Goldman still recommends hedging geopolitical risk through deferred Mar27-Dec27 European diesel timespreads, which would rise over 100% if persistent Russia or Mideast refinery outages keep the nearby 9-month spread near current levels.
Separately, Darrell Fletcher, managing director for commodities at Bannockburn Capital Markets, warned that the "path of least resistance is a strong and steady grind higher as the war enters seven months," adding, "The fundamental picture for products remains bullish with global inventories and reserves deteriorating. In the typical pattern, the US and Iran continue their counterattacks and warnings."
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"Really Bright Future": Wall Street's Big Bet on Booming Red America Escalates
Goldman Sachs is nearing a major milestone on its new Dallas campus, where the exterior of an 800,000-square-foot building is nearly complete and the Wall Street firm is preparing to begin work on the interior ahead of a planned January 2028 opening.
The new Goldman Sachs campus in downtown Dallas is under construction, with a projected opening in January 2028. (Shelby Tauber via Getty Images, yoinked from Fox News)The project will consolidate two existing Goldman offices into a single campus and give the firm more room to expand in a city that is already its second-largest U.S. base after New York, with roughly 4,500 employees across North Texas. The roughly $500 million campus is designed for more than 5,000 workers and will be the largest office by square footage in Goldman's portfolio when it opens - larger than anything the firm occupies in Manhattan. Ericka Leslie, Goldman's chief administrative officer, recently inspected the site and said Dallas has so far lived up to the firm's expectations.
"I can't say it enough, I think Dallas is a great place to do business, it really is. The building is beautiful," Leslie told Fox Business.
"We're in two buildings now, we're going to be able to combine everybody into this state-of-the-art space, and it's right next to the Perot museum, and the city itself is very vibrant. So we're looking forward to it, and we're going to grow there," the Wall Street executive continued. "It's a growth opportunity for us inside of the United States, and it's a really vibrant place to do business."
"The outside of the building is mostly complete, and they have to do that in order to start fitting out the inside of the building and air conditioning it, so that will begin fairly shortly. We're looking for a launch around January 2028," she added.
The new campus will offer views overlooking downtown Dallas and the Perot Museum, including from outdoor areas. (Goldman Sachs)However, January 2028 is running a little late versus Goldman's original plan. Dallas is so busy building that even Goldman has to wait in line for contractors.
"The project is mostly on time. It's slightly delayed, there's quite a bit of development going on in Dallas right now, and so we're seeing small delays," she said.
The math behind the move is straightforward. CEO David Solomon has noted that Goldman's headcount in New York has not grown in 20 years, while Dallas and Salt Lake City are where the firm is adding people.
Goldman is hardly alone in putting more people and money into Texas. Some of the biggest names in finance are expanding their presence in the state, adding offices and employees as Texas seeks to establish itself as a larger rival to traditional financial centers on the East Coast.
For example, Morgan Stanley is planning a permanent Dallas hub by 2031. Under a July 2026 resolution filed with the Dallas City Council, the firm plans to spend just over $587 million on a 708,000-square-foot building expected to house about 3,800 employees by the end of 2035. At least 25% of relocated or newly created positions are required to go to Dallas residents. That works out to roughly $829 per square foot, against about $625 for Goldman's campus.
The new Goldman Sachs campus in Dallas will allow the firm to consolidate and grow its presence in the region. (Goldman Sachs)Texas is also making a push into the infrastructure of financial markets themselves. The Texas Stock Exchange, backed by BlackRock, Citadel Securities, Charles Schwab and Goldman itself, raised $161 million, making it the most well-capitalized exchange applicant in U.S. history. The exchange went fully live in late July.
Meanwhile, Apollo Global Management is expanding farther south in Austin, which the firm selected for a new hub focused on innovation, emerging technology and its next phase of growth.
"At Apollo and Athene, we help meet the capital needs of companies and economies, while enabling people to retire with confidence. That mission has driven our innovation for more than three decades, and this new presence is a continuation of that DNA. Change is the only constant, and we'd rather lead it than react to it," Apollo CEO Marc Rowan said. "Austin lets us build the next generation of Apollo and Athene, including challenger models for parts of our own business, with the talent, technology and business environment already in place. That's why we chose Austin and Texas."
Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 20:30