UBS analyst Peter Grom, who covers U.S. consumer staples including packaged food, beverages, and household products, served up a sour outlook for the salty-snack category, warning that the recovery investors had hoped for remains further out than expected.
"Despite recent optimism around a potential recovery in salty snacks, our analysis would suggest the category remains challenged. While tracked channel growth has turned positive relative to prior periods, we have observed momentum beginning to moderate with L13W $ takeaway growth decelerating to +1.2% vs. the +3.4% peak growth seen earlier in the year," Grom began the note.
Grom pointed out that the salty-snack category remains under pressure from a confluence of headwinds, including rapid GLP-1 adoption, potential SNAP benefit reductions, and mounting macroeconomic challenges faced by cash-strapped consumers.
"The combination of GLP-1 adoption, potential SNAP benefit reductions, and broader consumer spending pressures tied to the current geopolitical conflict has weighed on snack demand," the analyst said.
Grom noted that the Nielsen data show little evidence of a robust recovery, with buy rates, purchase frequency, spending per trip, units per trip, and overall projected sales all slowing. The category is also losing share to "better-for-you" options.
A Recovery Remains Uncertain
Snack trend down
He pointed out that competitive pressure has greatly intensified, adding that Pepsi remains the junk food king, with nearly half of category sales, but most large incumbents are generating flat-to-negative growth across tracked channels.
Pepsi's Frito-Lay North America food unit has experienced negative sales growth for much of the past year and continues to lose share despite investments in pricing, promotions, merchandising, and shelf space.
Another pressure point has been declining sales at convenience stores. He said C-store salty-snack sales, historically a strong growth engine, fell 3.5% in the latest 13 weeks as higher pump prices weighed on traffic and impulse purchases. Another headwind at C-stores has been the decline in SNAP sales.
Related consumer trend coverage:
Here's What Happened Inside Convenience Stores When Gas Hit $4
Beer Demand Goes Flat As Even Alcoholics Pull Back With Gas Above $4
Energy Drinks Become Latest Casualty As Fuel Shock Shifts Consumer Behavior
One takeaway from Grom's note is that the confluence of pressures mentioned above has collided across the salty-snack aisle, derailing the recovery investors had hoped would take shape this year.
Professional subscribers can read more about consumer trends at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 14:45Summary:
CNBC is reporting that a deal between the US and Iran has been electronically signed by Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. According to an unnamed US official, the US-Iran MOU provides for the 'immediate' reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, however - while President Trump said earlier that ships were beginning to move, the US official then said that reopening the strait would 'take time' due to mines, and that we can expect an increase in strait traffic over the next 1-2 weeks.
Trump addressed reporters and allies at the G7 summit in France on Monday, just hours after a major interim agreement with Iran that includes a 60-day ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and strict limits on Tehran’s nuclear program. Speaking alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, he repeatedly underscored that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was the central achievement of the deal.
“The main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said. “They fully agreed to that with strong policing powers.”
🚨 PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST NOW: "The main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon!"
"They fully agreed to that with strong POLICING powers and they won't have a nuclear weapon, which is what it was all about because they probably would have used it if they had it."
"So… pic.twitter.com/izXsxj7vkE
He then compared it to the Obama-era JCPOA, calling the earlier agreement “a horrible deal for the United States” that had put Iran on “a road to a nuclear weapon” while sending billions of dollars to Tehran. Trump was also sharply critical of past U.S. cash payments to Iran, describing the $1.7 billion withdrawal from banks plus tens of billions in additional spending as a failed attempt to “bribe them to make a deal that didn’t work.”
🚨 BOOM! President Trump is now publicly OBLITERATING Barack Hussein Obama trying to "BRIBE" Iran with CASH to no success
"$1.7 billion was taken out of the banks and given to Iran and on top of that tens of billions of dollars was spent. So they tried to bribe them to make a… pic.twitter.com/uzp1r070kg
On the current arrangement, Trump stressed that any sanctions relief would be strictly behavioral and tied to compliance rather than granted simply for signing. He noted improved relations with Iran’s current leadership and reported that the Strait of Hormuz is already partially open, with mines being cleared and commercial shipping set to resume fully by Friday. Markets reacted immediately, with stocks surging and oil prices posting their biggest drop in some time.
🚨 JUST IN: Overseas, President Trump says he's GETTING ALONG WITH IRAN, the market is SURGING and oil prices are DROPPING
47 just made massive history!
"The Strait is already partially open, as you know they're doing a little hunting for a couple of mines that they've already… pic.twitter.com/UAHoCs1JBn
Trump also called for an end to fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, saying the long-running conflict “should NOT be tough” to address and that “we have to have a little talk with them.” Less than 24 hours after the Iran developments, he revealed he had already spoken with both President Zelensky and President Putin, describing the conversations as “very good” and expressing optimism that progress could be made to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine, where he noted roughly 25,000 people are dying each month.
🚨 HOLY CRAP! President Trump not even 24 HOURS after ending the Iran war just spoke with Putin and Zelensky to try and end the UKRAINE war
This man is going all-out for peace!
"Very good conversation yesterday with President Zelensky and President Putin. And I see maybe we can… pic.twitter.com/XDrhgQgyuT
Details of the MOU will be released over the next 24-48 hours, though one US official said that the MOU contains 'possible' $300 billion in reconstruction funding.
Ghalibaf notably came into public view for the first time in weeks in April to lead the Iranian delegation in talks in Islamabad with US Vice President DJ Vance - marking the highest-level contact between the two foes since before the 1979 Islamic revolution.
TrumpPresident Trump on Monday claimed on Truth Social that commercial ships loaded with oil are transiting the Strait of Hormuz followinmg an announced deal to end hostilities with Iran.
"Ships are starting to move, many loaded up with Oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz," he wrote. "They are going along the Southern ‘Highway,’ which is totally safe, secure, and pristine. There are other areas of travel, also!!!"
Keep an eye on it here.
https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/Sunday evening Trump announced that the US and Iran had reached a tentative deal to end the war which was started by the Trump adminisgration and Israel on Feb. 28.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said it had agreed to the memorandum of understanding (MOU) - according to state-run outelt IRNA.
VP VanceNot even 24 hours after President Trump declared a peace deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and just 30 minutes before New York futures opened Sunday evening, the administration already had Vice President JD Vance beginning a media roadshow to calm investor nerves and boost confidence.
Vance began the Monday roadshow on CNBC, providing more details on the U.S.-Iran deal, as uncertainty is the market's worst fear.
Vance said the U.S.-Iran deal is moving ahead despite what he called MSM "misreporting."
"The agreement is fundamentally built around a two-step verification process," Vance told the outlet, adding that Israel will have a seat at the table. Vance also stated that all Iranian government factions are represented in the talks, with several Iranian representatives expected at Friday's signing ceremony.
On the Hormuz maritime chokepoint, Vance said the strait is already seeing increased traffic and is expected to remain open toll-free over the long term, not just temporarily. He added that Iran would need resources to rebuild, but those resources would not be available without a nuclear deal.
Summary of discussion via CNBC:
Vice President JD Vance on Monday said after the U.S. and Iran struck a preliminary deal that there are "a lot" of details that remain to be ironed out, but he expressed confidence that America has "all the cards" in subsequent talks.
The agreement reached Sunday would extend the U.S.-Iran ceasefire for 60 days and set up a framework for future negotiations about Tehran's nuclear program and other key issues.
The text of the preliminary deal has yet to be released. Vance, on CNBC's "Squawk Box" Monday morning, said the deal's two major prongs are reopening the Strait of Hormuz and clinching a long-term commitment that Iran will never develop a nuclear weapon.
He indicated that if Iran abides by the deal's commitments, it will be rewarded with loosened economic sanctions or other barriers, allowing Tehran "to be reinvited into the world economy."
Vance is also expected to join CBS Mornings to discuss the U.S.-Iran peace deal. It is likely that Fox Business and other outlets will follow, as the administration must repair any political damage from four months of war with Iran, which created uncertainty on Wall Street and sent the national average for gasoline prices above $4 per gallon for 2.5 months.
VIEWER ALERT: @VP Vance joins @CBSMornings 🌞 just after 8am ET to discuss the emerging U.S.-Iran deal.
— Ed O'Keefe (@edokeefe) June 15, 2026Let the roadshow begin...
Iran Offers 60-Day Toll-Free Hormuz Transit As 100s Of Ships Await ReopeningThe U.S. and Iran reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday evening, just 30 minutes before New York futures opened, with officials from both countries set to meet in Switzerland on Friday to formally sign the peace deal.
According to Iranian outlet Fars, the U.S.-Iran deal reportedly includes a 60-day toll-free window for vessels. After that period, if a more permanent deal is agreed upon, Tehran may seek to monetize the Hormuz chokepoint by charging commercial vessels for "services" tied to safety, navigation, environmental protection, and insurance.
Traffic on the Strait remains light on Monday morning, with hundreds of tankers waiting for the Hormuz waterway to officially reopen by the end of the week. But LNG tanker Disha did not wait for the formal opening and made a dash to exit the strait early Monday.
There are nearly 300 loaded vessels idling in the Persian Gulf, while a similar number of empty ships are waiting in the Gulf of Oman to return to export terminals. Another 250 ballast vessels inside the Gulf are ready to pick up cargoes if outbound flows resume.
The reopening could release millions of barrels of trapped oil and restart LNG flows, but normalization of energy flows back to pre-war levels could take many months, if not quarters, and for Qatar's sake, years.
"From the bridge and the engine room where we're sitting, right now it looks very different to what the headlines may say," said Angad Banga, CEO of maritime conglomerate The Caravel Group, which owns Fleet Management Limited, one of the world's largest ship management companies.
Banga told Bloomberg that it has several crews trapped in the Persian Gulf area, adding, "We've seen positive signals before, and I think ultimately what matters is what holds."
Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd, told the outlet, "Shipowners are on a risk spectrum — the Japanese, Koreans and Chinese are less open to high risk, while the Greeks have a different appetite — so we may see some people gearing up."
Singh noted, "But by and large the rest of the market is still seeking more details and assurance before proceeding."
Beyond the shipping industry, on Wall Street, UBS economist Arend Kapteyn told clients earlier this morning that "the test will be how quickly and to what extent the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Early indications suggest this may depend on Iran clearing naval mines over an initial 30-day period. But taken at face value, the news should be supportive for risk assets, pushing yields, oil and the US dollar lower, while equities move higher."
Latest Hormuz trends via Kepler Cheuvreux shipping analyst Axel Styrman:
Daily arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz in 2026
Global trade & capacity trapped/waiting as of 22 May
Daily arrivals, Strait of Hormuz, # of ships per segment
Crude Exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz
LNG Exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz
LPG exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz
Shipping Stocks To Watch
Professional subscribers can read much more about the Hormuz chokepoint on our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 14:30