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ADP Employment Report Shows 12th Straight Month Of Job Gains
With jobless claims still hovering near multi-decade lows and Job Openings soaring, and despite near record low consumer sentiment (particularly about the labor market), ADP was expected to report another strong employment report this morning with the US economy adding 120k jobs.
The actual print was a disappointing +98k, but still represented the 12th straight month of employment gains...
Source: Bloomberg
Once again Small Business led the charge with hiring, but the gains were seen across all firm sizes...
Interestingly, only the Natural Resources & Mining sector saw job losses...
The median pay gain for job-stayers was little changed at 4.4 percent, while year-over-year pay growth for job-changers accelerated to 6.6 percent.
"The pace of hiring is telling a story of both supply and demand," said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.
"We know it's taking people longer to find work, but there also are signs of labor supply constraints in certain industries. For now, the overall effect is a slowdown in job creation."
Still, this is hardly the collapse in labor market sentiment that surveys are suggesting...
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Nike Turnaround Falters As UBS Says There's "No Reason To Buy" Stock
Nike shares fell 3% in premarket trading after the struggling athletic apparel giant warned on its earnings call that revenue declines over the next two quarters will be worse than previously expected, underscoring that there is still no immediate turnaround to halt a multi-year bear market that has driven the stock to decade lows.
"We are not expecting the environment to improve meaningfully over the next six months," Nike's outgoing CFO Matt Friend told investors on Tuesday evening.
Customers are "under pressure around the world, and we can particularly see it having a larger impact on sportswear," Friend added.
Nike now sees sales falling in the low-to-mid single digits, down from an earlier view of a low-single-digit decline. The slowdown is expected over the next six months and is mostly due to slower wholesale shipments in North America, among other factors.
The downbeat commentary offset better-than-expected fourth-quarter sales and profits, which were largely in line with expectations. Management warned that the operating environment became "increasingly challenging" as the quarter progressed, with North America slowing by mid-April.
Our immediate takeaway is that Nike's reset remains ongoing, and any turnaround plan will likely take much longer than initially anticipated, continuing to pressure the stock.
UBS equity analyst Jay Sole, focused on retail, department stores, specialty softlines, apparel, footwear, and consumer discretionary stocks, was blunt with clients: "We don't see a reason to buy the stock."
Sole explained why clients should hold off for now from attempting to bottom-fish the stock, which is currently trading at 2014 levels:
The pivotal Nike question remains "Is all the 'bad news' now priced in?" Despite the pullback in Nike's stock price, we still don't see a good entry point. Nike's stock price is still not cheap at ~27x our FY27 EPS estimate, in our view, and this suggests a solid rebound remains priced in. We continue to see a balanced upside/downside skew. The main upside risk is Nike returns to positive sales growth with expanding gross margin faster than expected. Yet the main downside risk is the rebound takes much longer than the market anticipates. Nike's 4Q report did not cause us to change our thesis much.
Nike's 4Q report underscores upside and downside sales and margin risks:
1. Nike lowered its CY26 sales guidance, but there were bright spots within the outlook. Nike lowered its CY26 sales growth forecast to -L to -MSD% from -LSD %. We believe the main negative factor is Nike's fashion business continues to struggle. The issue is Nike's fashion business remains 50% of its sales mix. Nike may need to take this percentage much lower over time in order to reestablish itself at the world's best sports brand. If so, it could serve as a major, multiyear drag on Nike's top line. This is the main downside sales risk. At the same time, Nike's performance business grew 5% in Q4. Plus, the company sounded like it is in the process of replicating the operational improvements made in categories like running to other sports categories such as basketball, training, outdoor, and tennis. If so, this could lead to upside sales growth surprises over the NTM. This is the main upside risk, in our view.
2. Nike offset its lowered sales expectation with raised margin guidance. Nike boosted its GM% outlook slightly and trimmed its SG&A outlook in order to maintain its CY26 guidance. This was a mild positive surprise to us and Nike is citing its ability to continue to tightly manage costs as one means of restoring its EBIT margin back to 10% over time. However, Nike's average annual SG&A growth rate over the past 4 years (FY27e included) is just 0%. Our concern is Nike is underinvesting in future growth in order to limit near-term downward EPS revisions. Thus, a main downside margin risk is that Nike will have to ramp up SG&A more than expected to return to sustainable top-line growth.
We maintain our FY27, FY28, and FY29 EPS estimates:
We lower our FY27 sales growth forecast given Nike's plan to reduce its inventory buys. Plus, we see greater revenue pressure post Q1 as Nike moves past major sporting events like the world cup and laps elevated promotions on its digital channel. At the same time, we raise our operating margin forecast related to annualizing new efficiencies in Nike's supply chain and technology divisions. Plus we see slightly lower risk Nike's promotions
Separate analyst commentary (courtsey of Bloomberg):
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Poonam Goyal
- "Nike's sales recovery is likely to take longer as management tightens buys and sell-in to clear sportswear, Jordan, streetwear and China inventory, even as margin can expand sooner"
Citi analyst (neutral, PT to $45 from $47)
- Nike's sales are looking a little weaker, while margins are a little better.
- “After sales slowed in mid-April within 4Q26, June (1QTD) has improved, helped by excitement around global football"
Guggenheim analyst Simeon Siegel (buy, PT $60 from $74)
- The bottom line is that "we assume investors will still question whether Nike has 'ripped the band-aid' on earnings revisions"
- Trim price target on "recognizing ongoing noise and a general reduction in retail multiples"
Jefferies analyst Randal Konik (buy, PT to $75 from $90)
- The fourth-quarter report "came in ahead with kernels of progress solidifying in the base business"
- "Sportswear/Jordan Streetwear still the overhang, but not getting worse"
RBC Capital analyst Piral Dadhania (sector perform, PT $50)
- Revenues remain reliant on wholesale, whilst direct-to- consumer trends remain soft, which is "not likely sustainable mid-term"
- "Nike has delivered a mixed 4Q26 quarter (ex US tariff refund) with anticipated lack of underlying revenue momentum offset by more favourable FX translation benefit which flatters absolute gross profit"
According to Bloomberg data, there are 17 "Buy" ratings on the stock, with 23 "Neutral" ratings and 3 "Sell" ratings.
Read The Market Ear note on Nike's epic demise titled "Go Woke Go Broke: Nike Stopped Obsessing Over Athletes And Started Obsessing Over Activism."
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Outgoing UK PM "Proud To Have The Gayest Parliament Of All Time Anywhere In The World"
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,
As outgoing Kier Starmer prepares to depart amid cratering approval ratings and deep public disillusionment, his 'Pride' reception remarks this week reveal a leader more focused on cultural signalling than addressing Britain's pressing crises.
Starmer took to the stage at a Downing Street Pride reception to defend his government's LGBTQ+ record, even as scepticism grows within parts of that broad community and his wider popularity sits at dismal lows.
Starmer struck a defiant tone, insisting his administration would continue championing these issues. "I want to be clear that all lesbians, all gay, all bi and trans people - that this government will defend your rights," he declared. "We have to stand against the politics of division."
Can we please get back to having a serious country, rather than "the gayest parliament of all time anywhere in the world"? pic.twitter.com/6e7xzLIAky
— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) July 1, 2026He praised what he called global leadership in representation, stating Westminster is "the gayest parliament... anywhere in the world" and telling attendees to "celebrate that."
We really don't care about cocks in frocks, chutney ferrets or rug munchers.
What we do care about is our daughters being groomed or our sons being stabbed and the way our country has been hollowed out by immigration. We care about our elderly, our nation's security.
So we actually need a government focused on delivering for the country as a whole regardless of their sexual preferences but we actually get a government striving to be the gayest. It's just pathetic
— Blue G ? (@Graham93201) July 1, 2026I'd settle for the most practical, productive and least corrupt parliament, but I guess how gay you are is the metric now. ?
— Lee Strato (@leestrato) July 1, 2026Was it for this men died in the air, at sea, in burning deserts, freezing mountains, stinking jungles and prison camps?
— The Lion In Winter ?? (@LordOfMundane) July 1, 2026Starmer highlighted a "full trans-inclusive ban on abusive conversion practices," describing conversion therapy as "a very sinister idea... trying to suggest that identities aren't legitimate."
As we have highlighted, under Starmer's watch, authorities advanced measures on this front that risk criminalising parents who question their child's rush toward gender transition. A draft bill on "conversion practices" carries penalties of unlimited fines and up to five years in prison. Equalities Minister Olivia Bailey framed it as protecting against abuse driven by the "false belief that being LGBTQ+ is shameful."
Critics argue the vague language could ensnare normal family discussions, exploratory talks, or references to evidence questioning youth medical transitions.
This unfolds alongside school guidance permitting social transitions for four-year-olds and exam boards embedding pro-trans messaging in subjects like GCSE Spanish. Campaigners like Maya Forstater and Helen Joyce have warned of ideological capture in education.
Elsewhere during his Pride ramble, Starmer pointed to the HIV Action Plan aiming to end new transmissions by 2030 and changes to equalise hate crime strands, and announced £21 million for global LGBTQ+ rights and a new Special Envoy, framing the fight as "global."
Starmer positioned his government as restoring the UK's reputation after predecessors damaged it: "We are here to restore it." He closed by reaffirming personal commitment: "I will always fight for respect and dignity. It didn't start when I became Prime Minister. It won't end when I don't."
These remarks come as Starmer exits following his June 2026 resignation announcement, with approval ratings plunging to joint historic lows around net -46 or worse - among the poorest for any modern prime minister. Public sentiment has turned sharply against him, reflecting frustration with a tenure marked by perceived failures on everyday concerns.
While Starmer celebrates certain milestones, a closer look at his record reveals policies that have alarmed parents, heightened security risks, strained social cohesion, and eroded basic freedoms.
Persistent Failures on Grooming Gangs
Starmer's government has drawn intense scrutiny for its handling of grooming gang scandals, where systemic issues involving organised abuse in certain communities have long demanded robust action. Public trust eroded further amid perceptions of inadequate accountability and prevention efforts.
Mass migration as a tool of undermining social cohesion
Starmer's administration continued policies seen as weaponising migration while cracking down on those noticing demographic impacts and security failures.
Former Prime Minister Liz Truss recently directly linked surges in random violence to mass migration policies, arguing left-wing approaches deliberately erode the nation state and family. Relentless stabbings and assaults have fueled fury, with responses often focusing on suppressing discussion rather than root causes.
Banning Critics While Welcoming Extremists
The government has barred anyone it disagrees with from entering the country, including Dutch commentator Eva Vlaardingerbroek shortly after she criticised Starmer, citing public good grounds despite her focus on cultural preservation.
In contrast, Starmer expressed delight at welcoming Alaa Abd el-Fattah, an activist with a track record of extreme posts including hatred toward white people, calls for violence against police and Zionists, and praise for figures like Osama bin Laden.
Starmer posted: "I'm delighted that Alaa Abd El-Fattah is back in the UK and has been reunited with his loved ones... Alaa's case has been a top priority." This occurred alongside record Channel crossings and hotel accommodations for arrivals.
Criminalising speech and humour
Britain under Starmer saw massively expanded efforts to police expression. Lucy Connolly, previously imprisoned for a post, faced threats of recall for sharing a satirical Maduro-style joke about Trump and Starmer. Probation cited it as poor behaviour after complaints of inciting violence.
Comedy writer Graham Linehan was arrested at Heathrow over three gender-critical tweets, held in a cell, and hospitalised with dangerously high blood pressure from the stress. JK Rowling condemned it as "totalitarianism."
Creating a dystopian mass surveillance apparatus
Proposals emerged to compel platforms to prioritise BBC content against "disinformation," part of broader controls including a thought police unit on migration narratives, crisis information blocking, and social media bans framed as safety measures but risking total oversight.
Starmer's exit leaves a country transformed by these priorities. As everyday Britons face rising costs, safety concerns, and restricted speech, the emphasis on niche cultural victories over national cohesion stands in stark relief.
It currently appears Stamer will simply be replaced by Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Manchester, without a leadership contest. Burnham is by all accounts even more left-wing and more focused on ideological virtue signalling causes than Starmer.
Only when a new general election is called will the British people be offered a chance to refocus on restoring seriousness, security, and the freedoms that once defined the country - before ideology supplanted reality.
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Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 07:45