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Lacy Hunt: Fed's Been "Stealth-Easing" Since December
“We’re seeing a major secular shift, that we’re now moving into a period of capital shortage, as well as we’re witnessing the end of the three-decade period of globalization, which led to significant disinflation.”
That prediction comes from Dr. Lacy Hunt, once one of the bond market’s most prominent bulls and secular disinflationists. Well… no longer. He’s now a seller of U.S. long-dated bonds and suggested during last night’s discussion on ZeroHedge that he’s eyeing gold favorably.
Lacy told Thoughtful Money’s Adam Taggart and Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital that inflation is here to stay so get used to it and plan accordingly:
“There will be intermittent episodes when the secular forces will fade, but the big picture is considerably different. We’re going to have higher inflation. We’re going to have greater volatility in inflation. The trend in interest rate is going to be higher. And we’re going to have generally poor economic performance.”
Here were the highlights of Lacy’s tour de force, but we highly recommend the full 75-minute discussion in its entirety:
Net national savings “very close to zero”Hunt began his case with two forces: a shortage of capital and the reversal of globalization.
“The Federal Reserve cannot solve the capital shortage situation. They can increase the money supply, but to have physical investment you need saving out of income.”
Money printing and rising rates has an increasingly deleterious effect on private investment, which will be vital to keep up with the AI boom. Higher government bond yields means the private sector needs to work harder to compete… why take risk when Uncle Sam guarantees 5% or more?
“We’re financing artificial intelligence. We’re building an expansion of semiconductors. We need to expand the electrical grid… We’ve got a massive federal budget deficit that’s deteriorating.”
Atop that, Hunt said net national saving is “very close to zero.” Net national savings is defined as the total amount of money saved by households, businesses, and the government minus the cost of replacing worn-out capital goods (depreciation).
“So there is going to be this tremendous demand for capital, which suggests that real interest rates will have to rise. And because the overall inflation is going to be going up at the same time, that means that this will reinforce the rise in nominal interest.”
— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) August 21, 2026 Fed’s been “stealth easing” since DecemberSince mid-December, the Fed’s balance sheet has expanded by roughly $200 billion. So for all the talk of a hawkish Fed, they’re still a net buyer of Treasuries. Additionally, bank deposits and bank lending are up.
“Bank deposits and bank loans in particular, they’ve surged very dramatically since mid-December… so now you have an uptick in deposit growth and money supply growth, which in my opinion is moving further into the inflationary direction.”
This kind of monetary support, Lacy argued, only creates a longer-term problem by encouraging investment in financial assets rather than productive ones.
“When the Federal Reserve comes in and gives a signal to the market that they’re going to support the stock market... then what that serves to do is it’s a signal to the corporate managers that they should put more investment in financial assets and less investment in real assets.”
“But here’s the rub. It’s the real assets that raise the standard of living, not the financial investments.”
— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) August 21, 2026Watch Lacy's full deep dive below or listen on the ZeroHedge Spotify. If one of the longest running bond bulls is throwing in the towel… it might be time to pay attention.
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 20, 2026 Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 10:25Sanitation worker, 32, dies after falling from back of truck driven by dad on first day of job
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They're Getting Revenge, Starting Today...
Via the Tom Woods Letter,
I absolutely insist to you: I really am trying to stop writing about this topic. But too much insanity keeps breaking out, and I have no choice but to comment on it.
You know the story: a Cambridge academic, Jason Arday, was found to have plagiarized his dissertation, borrowed heavily from others in his published articles, produced essentially worthless research, called the police on a reporter and on a professor who asked questions about his resume, invented wild tales of athletic and academic achievement as well as philanthropic work, and (of course) accused his critics of “racism.” And then, late last week, he was found dead at his home in an apparent suicide.
That would have been it, but the left - instead of the embarrassment it should feel at having promoted the greatest academic charlatan of the past ten years (and that’s saying something) - is trying to play the victim here: mean right-wingers in the media shouldn’t have pushed so hard on the Arday story.
This is coming from people who call their enemies Nazis 24 hours a day without thinking there might be a problem with that.
Anyway, here’s the latest: the university that employs Nathan Cofnas, the academic who first broke the story about Jason Arday’s plagiarism and worthless “research,” is now being investigated by his own university for breaking the story.
Just when you think academia can’t be a bigger joke, it always finds some way to outdo itself.
Ghent University rector Petra de Sutter, former leader of the Green Party, issued a statement to the effect that while Ghent attaches “great importance to academic freedom and to open academic debate, even when views are controversial,” it wants the world to know that of course it doesn’t really mean that:
“That freedom is not unlimited. It goes hand in hand with responsibility and may be restricted in order to protect the rights of others.
“For this reason, the university takes the recent public statements made by a postdoctoral researcher at Ghent University regarding this matter very seriously. Ghent University has decided to take appropriate action within its powers and the applicable framework.”
Well, we just found out what that means.
They just suspended Nathan Cofnas, and he will almost surely be fired.
Cofnas wrote the original report on Jason Arday that forced academia to take notice. What he found was too embarrassing not to elicit a response. And his point is: Arday is not an isolated case. For that he cannot be forgiven.
As Cofnas put it on August 11:
In 2023, the Guardian itself (!) published a breathless article titled “Jason Arday: he learned to talk at 11 and read at 18 – then became Cambridge’s youngest Black professor.”
More than a dozen academic journals gave the imprimatur of “peer review” to Arday’s plagiarized wokebabble.
The prestigious New York publisher Simon & Schuster is still going ahead with his memoirs.
Now the Guardian wants us to think this is just about “one academic and his bosses at Cambridge”?
There are thousands of Jason Ardays in universities all over the Western world. The only thing special about Arday is that he took the plagiarism and lies about his personal life too far, so there was a hook for a news story. But even that wasn’t enough to get him removed from academia. Until last Wednesday Cambridge was still smearing his critics as waging a “vile campaign.” He crossed the line not by being an incompetent fraud, but by claiming prestigious affiliations that he didn’t have, creating conflict between Cambridge and other universities.
“DEI” means achieving representation by doing away with elementary standards for certain people based on race. Just take a look at the content of “peer-reviewed” journals like Whiteness in Education and Educational Philosophy and Theory. The other papers in these journals are just like those written by Arday—someone who is now widely recognized to be mentally disabled.
The people trying to write this off as a fluke or an isolated case of “research misconduct” are at best delusional. The ideology of elite institutions is DEI, and DEI is Jason Arday.
This was the most embarrassing academic episode of my lifetime. Everyone just witnessed a clear-cut case of academic fraud, a man who literally called the police on people who questioned his resume, and the overwhelming response from academia was to scream “racism” and sign a petition in his defense.
After they did that, the really embarrassing stuff came out, and they persisted.
So the mask is off, in case there’s still anyone out there who didn’t know what was behind it. The whole edifice of academia nowadays is held together with Scotch tape and piano wire, and slogans.
The institutions will survive as shells of their former selves, but what was once inside will disappear. Adrian Vermeule, the one sane person at Harvard Law School, just wrote: “The elite universities are of course going to survive. They’ve been around forever and will continue on in some form. What will not survive, however, is a certain idea of the scholarly mission and life. It died of its own weakness, an inability to resist invading barbarians.”
Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 10:05