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Container Ship Runs Aground In Hormuz Chokepoint

Zero Rss
1 month 3 weeks ago
Container Ship Runs Aground In Hormuz Chokepoint

Hormuz vessel traffic continues to flow, but at a sharply reduced pace compared to the previous week, as US-Iran technical talks resume in Doha without senior negotiators meeting face-to-face.

Data research firm Kpler noted, "Hormuz traffic holds steady." 

Hormuz traffic holds steady

The Strait of Hormuz remained open and active on 30 June, with 34 verified crossings recorded and traffic evenly split by direction. The dataset showed a broad mix of commercial, energy-linked and support movements, while route visibility remained… pic.twitter.com/cVZHRte4Hy

— Kpler (@Kpler) July 1, 2026

The latest disruption in the strait, beyond the persistent threat of Iranian naval mines and suicide drones, was caused by a foreign container ship running aground after entering shallow waters outside the Iranian-designated shipping route.

Qatar-funded international news network Al Jazeera cites Iran's state media, which provided more details on the maritime incident early Wednesday:

A foreign container ship has run aground in the Strait of Hormuz after entering shallow waters outside ‌the shipping route designated by Iranian authorities, Iran's state media says.

The news report reiterated the Revolutionary Guard's warning that vessels should transit only through the corridor south of Iran'sLarak island, which Tehran says is the sole approved entry and exit route ‌for ships passing through the strait.

In a separate report, Bloomberg cites the Iranian Navy as saying that it "has repeatedly warned ship captains, owners and officials of global shipping companies that any entry or exit via routes other than the authorized one could lead to irreparable incidents."

Beyond the Strait, and focusing on markets, the beginning of the normalization process to reopen the critical waterway sent commodity prices sliding 9% month on month in June, as conflict fears eased following the US-Iran interim peace deal.

HSBC analyst Jamie Culling told clients:

Global commodity prices fell in June, with our index down by an average of 9% m-o-m, after having reached its highest level since Q3 2022 in May. In June, this left commodity prices up 14% year-to-date, down from 25% year-to-date in May.

The decline largely reflected the impacts of an improving outlook surrounding the US-Iran conflict, including increased traffic flow through the Strait of Hormuz (see Commodity Economic Comment: Better, but the Hormuz disruption is not over yet, 25 June 2026). After the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz picked up. The Brent oil benchmark fell to its pre-conflict level, reflecting an improved supply outlook.

Nonetheless, it is still early days. Transit rates through the Strait are still well below pre-war levels. Insurance is still expensive. Risks and uncertainty remain high, and the situation is fragile, highlighted by missile strikes from both sides over the past week which saw transits through the Strait of Hormuz dip (Bloomberg, 26 June).

Even as the broader news cycle has moved on and fatigue sets in, all things Hormuz, whether vessel traffic rates, insurance coverage, shipping costs, and Gulf export flows, will remain in focus this summer. The question is whether Tehran still retains full leverage over the waterway, or whether the normalization process has begun to dilute its ability to weaponize the world's most important maritime chokepoint.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 07:20
Tyler Durden

The World Is Becoming Increasingly Divided By Fertility

Zero Rss
1 month 3 weeks ago
The World Is Becoming Increasingly Divided By Fertility

The world is becoming increasingly divided by fertility.

One group of countries now has too few births to naturally replace its population, while another continues to see population growth driven by higher fertility rates. This demographic divide has major implications for aging populations, labor markets, immigration, and future economic growth.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins, shows which countries are above and below the replacement fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman, using projections for 2025 from the UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision.

While the regional patterns are striking, several countries buck the trend.

Fertility Rates by Country

The table below lists projected fertility rates for 2025 and whether each country falls above or below the 2.1 replacement threshold.

Country Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Above or Below 2.1
(Replacement Rate) Chad 5.94 Above Somalia 5.91 Above DR Congo 5.90 Above Central African Republic 5.81 Above Niger 5.79 Above Mali 5.42 Above Angola 4.95 Above Burundi 4.68 Above Afghanistan 4.66 Above Mozambique 4.62 Above Mauritania 4.56 Above Mayotte 4.50 Above Tanzania 4.47 Above Benin 4.42 Above Yemen 4.41 Above Nigeria 4.30 Above Sudan 4.19 Above Cameroon 4.19 Above Ivory Coast 4.17 Above Togo 4.07 Above Uganda 4.06 Above Congo 4.05 Above Guinea 4.04 Above Equatorial Guinea 4.04 Above Burkina Faso 4.00 Above Zambia 3.97 Above Madagascar 3.84 Above Ethiopia 3.81 Above Gambia 3.80 Above Liberia 3.79 Above Comoros 3.76 Above Samoa 3.75 Above Senegal 3.71 Above South Sudan 3.71 Above Guinea-Bissau 3.68 Above Zimbabwe 3.62 Above Sierra Leone 3.61 Above Eritrea 3.61 Above Rwanda 3.59 Above Gabon 3.54 Above Malawi 3.53 Above Vanuatu 3.53 Above Sao Tome and Principe 3.53 Above Pakistan 3.50 Above Solomon Islands 3.47 Above Uzbekistan 3.45 Above Ghana 3.30 Above French Guiana 3.29 Above Nauru 3.25 Above Palestine 3.19 Above Iraq 3.17 Above Namibia 3.17 Above Tuvalu 3.14 Above Kenya 3.12 Above Kiribati 3.09 Above Tonga 3.07 Above Papua New Guinea 3.03 Above Tajikistan 2.99 Above Kazakhstan 2.95 Above Marshall Islands 2.82 Above Israel 2.75 Above Kyrgyzstan 2.75 Above Egypt 2.71 Above Guam 2.71 Above Micronesia 2.71 Above Eswatini 2.68 Above Algeria 2.67 Above Syria 2.66 Above Botswana 2.66 Above Lesotho 2.64 Above Turkmenistan 2.63 Above Saint Martin (French part) 2.63 Above Haiti 2.59 Above Mongolia 2.58 Above Djibouti 2.58 Above Jordan 2.57 Above Tokelau 2.57 Above Timor-Leste 2.56 Above Cambodia 2.51 Above Bolivia 2.50 Above Oman 2.48 Above Niue 2.46 Above Honduras 2.45 Above Paraguay 2.39 Above Guyana 2.37 Above Laos 2.36 Above Saudi Arabia 2.29 Above Northern Mariana Islands 2.28 Above Guatemala 2.26 Above Libya 2.25 Above Fiji 2.25 Above American Samoa 2.25 Above Lebanon 2.21 Above Suriname 2.21 Above Faroe Islands 2.20 Above South Africa 2.19 Above Dominican Republic 2.19 Above Morocco 2.18 Above Nicaragua 2.18 Above Western Sahara 2.15 Above Réunion 2.13 Above Bangladesh 2.11 Above Indonesia 2.10 Above Panama 2.09 Below Monaco 2.09 Below Myanmar 2.08 Below Seychelles 2.08 Below United States Virgin Islands 2.07 Below Venezuela 2.06 Below Guadeloupe 2.05 Below Belize 2.01 Below Cook Islands 2.00 Below Martinique 1.97 Below New Caledonia 1.95 Below India 1.94 Below Peru 1.94 Below Nepal 1.94 Below Sri Lanka 1.94 Below Greenland 1.91 Below Philippines 1.88 Below Vietnam 1.88 Below Gibraltar 1.88 Below Mexico 1.87 Below Palau 1.86 Below Tunisia 1.80 Below Montenegro 1.80 Below Ecuador 1.79 Below Georgia 1.79 Below Bahrain 1.78 Below Dem. People's Republic of Korea 1.77 Below El Salvador 1.75 Below St. Vincent & Grenadines 1.75 Below Bulgaria 1.74 Below Moldova 1.72 Below Romania 1.71 Below Armenia 1.71 Below Brunei 1.71 Below Qatar 1.70 Below Barbados 1.70 Below Falkland Islands 1.69 Below Iran 1.67 Below Azerbaijan 1.66 Below New Zealand 1.65 Below France 1.64 Below Australia 1.64 Below St. Helena 1.64 Below United States 1.62 Below Turkey 1.62 Below Colombia 1.62 Below Aruba 1.61 Below Brazil 1.60 Below Ireland 1.60 Below Slovenia 1.58 Below Antigua and Barbuda 1.58 Below Slovakia 1.57 Below Maldives 1.55 Below United Kingdom 1.54 Below Liechtenstein 1.54 Below Malaysia 1.53 Below Kosovo (under UNSC res. 1244) 1.53 Below Isle of Man 1.53 Below Portugal 1.52 Below Denmark 1.52 Below Trinidad and Tobago 1.52 Below Cayman Islands 1.51 Below St. Kitts & Nevis 1.51 Below Argentina 1.50 Below Hungary 1.50 Below Serbia 1.50 Below Kuwait 1.50 Below Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.50 Below Cape Verde 1.50 Below Iceland 1.50 Below French Polynesia 1.48 Below Czechia 1.47 Below Croatia 1.47 Below North Macedonia 1.47 Below Dominica 1.47 Below Russia 1.46 Below Germany 1.46 Below Grenada 1.46 Below Cuba 1.45 Below Bonaire 1.45 Below Montserrat 1.45 Below Netherlands 1.44 Below Sweden 1.44 Below Switzerland 1.44 Below Bhutan 1.44 Below Turks and Caicos Islands 1.44 Below Sint Maarten 1.43 Below Norway 1.42 Below Bermuda 1.41 Below Luxembourg 1.40 Below Wallis & Futuna 1.40 Below Belgium 1.39 Below Uruguay 1.39 Below St. Lucia 1.38 Below Jersey 1.38 Below Cyprus 1.37 Below Estonia 1.37 Below Guernsey 1.37 Below Bahamas 1.36 Below Latvia 1.35 Below Anguilla 1.35 Below Greece 1.34 Below Jamaica 1.34 Below Canada 1.33 Below Austria 1.33 Below Albania 1.33 Below Poland 1.31 Below Costa Rica 1.31 Below Finland 1.30 Below Saint Pierre and Miquelon 1.28 Below Japan 1.23 Below Spain 1.23 Below Belarus 1.22 Below Lithuania 1.22 Below Italy 1.21 Below United Arab Emirates 1.21 Below Mauritius 1.21 Below Thailand 1.19 Below San Marino 1.16 Below Chile 1.13 Below Malta 1.11 Below Andorra 1.10 Below Curacao 1.07 Below British Virgin Islands 1.06 Below China 1.02 Below Ukraine 1.00 Below Singapore 0.96 Below Puerto Rico 0.94 Below Taiwan 0.86 Below St. Barthélemy 0.83 Below South Korea 0.75 Below Hong Kong 0.74 Below Macao 0.69 Below The Great Fertility Divide

The divide is strikingly regional.

Europe is entirely below replacement fertility, joined by most countries across the Americas and East Asia. Meanwhile, most African countries, along with parts of the Middle East, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia, remain above the replacement threshold.

The map also reveals several notable exceptions.

Geographic Pockets That Buck the Trend

While regional patterns are remarkably consistent, several countries stand out as exceptions to their neighbors:

  • Central America: Honduras, Nicaragua, and Guatemala all have fertility rates just over replacement. On both the north and south sides, virtually every other country in the Americas is below replacement.
  • Africa: Tunisia is the sole country in continental Africa with a rate under 2.1.
  • South America: There are two pockets of higher fertility: Peru and Paraguay, and the Guianas (Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana).
  • Middle East: UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain are below 2.1, while surrounding nations in virtually every direction are above replacement.
  • South/Central Asia: A strip of connected countries, from Pakistan all the way up through Kazakhstan to Mongolia, has higher fertility. Bangladesh also stands out as higher fertility.
  • Southeast Asia: Laos and Cambodia stand out as above replacement. Indonesia is the only country with exactly a 2.1 fertility rate, equal to replacement.

Most of these outliers are countries at different stages of the demographic transition than their neighbors.

Their fertility rates remain above or below replacement while surrounding countries have already moved in the other direction, creating pockets that stand apart from the broader regional pattern.

If you enjoyed today’s post, see Japan’s birthrate collapse over the last 60 years in this visualization on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 06:55
Tyler Durden

The US Should Exit The UN

Zero Rss
1 month 3 weeks ago
The US Should Exit The UN

Authored by Wendy McElroy via The Brownstone Institute,

The future of the United Nations (UN) is in play, largely because of its refusal to censure Iran—a member nation.

In May, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reprimanded the UN:

“If you’re telling me that the international community and hundreds of countries cannot rally behind that, then I don’t know what the utility of the UN system is.” 

Severing all ties to the UN could require an act of Congress, but the US is moving in this direction. On February 4, 2025, Executive Order 14199 directed the US to withdraw from 31 UN organisations. A great deal hinges on how highly Rubio still prizes America’s permanent seat on the UN Security Council which comes with a veto.

The UN is often viewed as an ineffectual bureaucracy that occasionally does some good. It is nothing so benevolent. Its origins may have been well-meaning, but the current UN has become what it claims to oppose. The US should leave the UN altogether and immediately, especially since its unjust policies are likely to get worse…and soon.

The UN’s Original Mission

The UN Charter (1945) opens,

WE THE PEOPLES OF THE UNITED NATIONS DETERMINED…to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person, in the equal rights of men and women…  

The Preamble of its Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948) states, 

Whereas recognition of the inherent dignity and of the equal and inalienable rights of all members of the human family is the foundation of freedom, justice and peace in the world,

Article 2 of the Declaration provides, 

Everyone is entitled to all the rights and freedoms set forth in this Declaration, without distinction of any kind, such as race, colour, sex…

‘All human beings are equal’ is the basis of Western justice, whether the equality is under nature, God, or law. Instead of pursuing equality, however, the UN is now a woke and corrupt actor that creates inequality and division. The UN’s financial malfeasance, the sexual abuse by field personnel, its demonization of the West…are well documented in the 104-page report From Watchdogs to Ideologues: How Politicized UN Rapporteurs Are Subverting Human Rights by the Geneva-based NGO UN Watch. 

The UN’s demonstrated commitment is to social justice or a wokeness rooted in equity, not equality. Equity seeks the redistribution of wealth and power to those who are considered oppressed from those who are considered oppressors. Equity is the opposite of equality under the law.

Consider its treatment of men who clearly are not viewed as equal to women, as the UN’s mission claims. An obvious example is the prominent presence of the UN Women commission that claims to be “the global champion for gender equality.” The commission identifies its goal as ensuring “every woman and girl lives up to her full potential.” No mention of men or boys. No comparable UN Men agency, although males are included peripherally by recognizing a need to train them to oppose patriarchy. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) explains, 

UNFPA works with men and boys around the world to advance gender equality and end violence. These programmes are encouraging men and boys to abandon harmful stereotypes, embrace respectful, healthy relationships, and support the human rights of all people, everywhere.

Men face many of the same global problems as women, however, including poverty, lack of education, violence, disease and harmful stereotypes. Men also face unique problems, including male-only conscription, paternity fraud, false rape accusations, and longer sentences for the same crimes. Nevertheless, compared to the UN’s emphasis on women, men are virtually ignored. And deliberately so.

The UN Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW) is considered by many to be the international bill of rights for women. Again, no comparable agency exists for men. The FAQ of one CEDAW branch speaks of substantive justice for women. 

Substantive justice judges fairness by results rather than a process; it favors the equitable distribution of rights, not equal rights. CEDAW states, “The concept of substantive equality arose out of the recognition that formal equality may not be sufficient to ensure that women enjoy the same rights as men. An ostensibly gender-neutral policy, while not excluding women per se, may result in a de facto discrimination against women.” 

Instead, in the name of equality, the UN discriminates against men. It denounces the “poison of patriarchy,” decries the manosphere, and discusses the anti-gender movement. The anti-gender movement is defined as groups with an agenda of harming radical feminist and LGBTQIA+ policies. Even questioning these policies or advocating parallel ones for men seems to be anti-gender. 

Earlier, I stated the UN’s policies are likely to get worse and soon. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres steps down on December 31, 2026. The leading contender as his replacement is the aggressively woke Michelle Bachelet, who launched UN Women and served as its Executive Director from 2010 to 2013. After this, she acted as United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (2018 to 2022).

In between stints at the UN, Bachelet served two terms as President of Chile. A prominent member of the Socialist Party of Chile, she mandated 50% female representation in her Cabinet and instituted political quotas to boost women’s presence in government, as well as establishing a Ministry of Women and Gender Equality; again, no comparable Ministry of Men exists.

And, again, the equality pursued was equity because it applied privileges to women. 

While at the UN, some of the global initiatives championed by Bachelet included: 

  • Safe Cities Free of Violence Against Women and Girls to address sexual violence in public spaces. The word “sexual” is key. Even the U.N. admits men experience more physical violence in public (81%) compared to women (19%). It is not clear the rate at which men experience sexual violence, however, as men report such abuse at a far lower rate than women.

  • Fund for Gender Equality to provide money exclusively to women to empower them at the grassroots level. Males can access other U.N. gender funds but only in order to dismantle gender inequality, not to empower themselves. Men are to act as gender allies and “agents of change.”

  • Increasing Women’s Access to Justice in Post-Conflict Societies to support transitional justice and women’s human rights in conflict and post-conflict zones. 

Everyone has the right to discriminate peacefully on his own time and dime. But the UN is primarily funded by mandatory assessed and voluntary contributions from its member nations; that is, by tax dollars extracted from individuals, half of whom are men and many who are dissenting women, like me. 

The good news: there are rumors of the UN’s financial collapse since some member states—most prominently the US—are withholding their contributions. The US alone owes $2.196 billion to the regular budget and $1.8 billion to separate peacekeeping operations, which amounts to about one-quarter of UN funding. Without it, the UN will be sorely diminished in status.

Good. And if the UN does collapse, then better.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 06:30
Tyler Durden

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