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Zero Rss

Former Cambridge Professor Jason Arday Found Dead at 41

Zero Rss
13 hours 18 minutes ago
Former Cambridge Professor Jason Arday Found Dead at 41

Jason Arday, the former University of Cambridge professor who recently resigned amid controversy, has been found dead at the age of 41.

Emergency services were called to an address in Battersea, south London, on Friday afternoon, where Arday was discovered unresponsive. The London Ambulance Service arrived shortly after 3:00 p.m., deploying an ambulance crew, an advanced paramedic, and a Hazardous Area Response Team. He was pronounced dead at the scene.

The Metropolitan Police stated that while the death is unexpected, it is not currently being treated as suspicious. Arday's next-of-kin have been informed and are receiving support from officers. The Met’s Central South Command Unit is handling the investigation, and a file is being prepared for the coroner.

Arday's sudden passing comes just over a week after he stepped down as Cambridge’s professor of sociology of education. He resigned on August 5, citing an "unrelenting level of public scrutiny," merely hours after the university announced an investigation into his appointment and tenure following allegations of plagiarism. The ongoing inquiry is expected to inform a broader review of Cambridge's hiring processes for senior academic roles.

Before his resignation, Arday made history as Cambridge’s youngest-ever black professor. His impressive academic ascent began with undergraduate and postgraduate studies in education, followed by a PhD from Liverpool John Moores University. He subsequently held academic posts at the University of Roehampton, Durham University, and the University of Glasgow, where he was named a professor in 2021.

His recently completed memoir, Great and Unfortunate Things, was published in the United States earlier this week. It is scheduled to be released in the UK by Simon and Schuster on August 27.

Memoir Fabrications and "Inconsistencies"

As we noted earlier this week, advance copies of Arday's memoir and its initial book proposal contain wild discrepancies and impossible claims.

  • The "Conscious Coma": In his book proposal, Arday claimed he was hit by a car, spent months in a "conscious coma," and had to relearn how to walk and talk. This entire traumatic event is completely omitted from the final book.
  • Shifting Illnesses: The proposal states he battled testicular cancer. The final book, however, changes this narrative, claiming he grappled with two brain tumors instead.
  • The Brazilian Shaman: Arday writes about encountering a "shaman woman" in Brazil who accurately prophesied his future struggles and triumphs. The article notes a glaring issue with this story: Arday has apparently never been to Brazil.
  • Time Travel: He somehow claimed to have appeared on the British documentary series Seven Up more than 20 years before he was even born.
  • Superhuman Athletics: He claims to have run an astonishing 30 marathons in 35 days.
Plagiarism and Academic Integrity

Beyond the memoir, the article highlights severe allegations regarding his academic work and professional conduct.

  • The Doctoral Dissertation: The London Telegraph reportedly found more than 100 passages in Arday's PhD dissertation that were "identical or nearly identical" to a 2009 thesis by a Brunel University student named Paula Zwozdiak-Myers.
  • AI-Generated Resignation: After the plagiarism allegations surfaced, Arday resigned. The article notes that an enterprising blogger ran Arday's resignation letter through an AI detector, which concluded with "high confidence" that the letter was fully generated by Artificial Intelligence.
  • Inflated Credentials: Arday was widely billed as a "professor of sociology," but his actual academic degrees are in education.

It seems getting caught was just too much for Arday. And the left is already blaming people for noticing...

I tweeted this out last Friday. Care to apologise :
‘This just gets worse and worse. There needs to be an intervention by family, social services, colleagues, university specialists. The poor chap is obviously in serious need of help. I hope he gets it. I fear what might happen… https://t.co/SHAqSrCWf0

— Andrew Neil (@afneil) August 14, 2026 Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 16:01
Tyler Durden

Bessent: US Readies Economic Isolation Of Iran "Like The World Has Never Seen Before"

Zero Rss
13 hours 19 minutes ago
Bessent: US Readies Economic Isolation Of Iran "Like The World Has Never Seen Before"

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Newsmax Thursday night that the Trump administration will announce unprecedented economic measures against Iran next week, signaling that a sharp escalation in economic warfare is just ahead as negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled. The warning comes as Tehran-linked Houthi rebel forces resume attacks on Saudi Aramco energy infrastructure, raising concerns that the conflict is spreading geographically and pushing Brent crude futures higher.

Bessent told Rob Schmitt of Newsmax:

And, you know, at the president's orders, we have raised the level even again, and watch this space for more announcements coming next week because we are going to apply measures like have never been seen in the history of economic isolation on a country. And I think the reason we are succeeding is because it is a one-two punch.

People say, well, you know, Cuba lasted a long time. Venezuela lasted a long time. Venezuela immediately crumbled when we put the blockade on. So, it will be a combination of economic isolation like the world has never seen before and the continued blockade in the Strait of Hormuz that will keep anything from going in or out of the Iranian ports.

Watch Bessent

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced upcoming unprecedented economic measures against Iran amid ongoing blockades of its ports pic.twitter.com/OV3etgd2k0

— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) August 14, 2026

By the midpoint of this week, we explained that, with US-Iran talks stalled, President Trump was more than likely to "opt for economic siege warfare, as the US military campaign is on hold."

Trump recently told Axios that he is "low-keying it" with Iran. "We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money," he said.

Washington has imposed roughly 2,200 sanctions-related designations on Tehran since 2018, according to Jeremy Paner, a partner at Hughes Hubbard & Reed who tracks Iran's energy industry. The scale of the existing sanctions architecture underscores the challenge facing the Trump administration as it seeks to exert additional leverage on Tehran.

"If 47 years of sanctions haven't broken Tehran's will, more of the same is unlikely to produce any changes," according to a Bloomberg Economics report led by Jennifer Welch. She noted that the most likely scenario is that Trump stays on the same path as before, maintaining sanctions and the blockade.

The Trump administration's accelerated pivot toward economic warfare, rather than renewed strikes on Iran's missile and drone capabilities along the Hormuz chokepoint or an operation against Kharg Island, likely reflects growing concern over the "perfect storm" developing in refined-products markets. With the global diesel crisis intensifying and crack spreads approaching $100 level, further strikes risk triggering a severe supply shock to the fuel that powers global industries. It would also be a political disaster if gasoline and diesel prices at US pumps soared even higher with just 81 days left until the midterm elections (read diesel crisis report). 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 16:00
Tyler Durden

No Illegal Immigrants Released At Southern Border In 15 Months: CBP

Zero Rss
13 hours 39 minutes ago
No Illegal Immigrants Released At Southern Border In 15 Months: CBP

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Border Patrol in July released zero illegal immigrants from the southern border into the United States for the 15th straight month, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said in an Aug. 13 statement.

Illegal crossings last month remained “historically low,” CBP said. Apprehensions of illegal immigrants by Border Patrol along the southwest border in July were 94 percent lower than the monthly average under the prior administration.

The number of illegal immigrants apprehended in the current fiscal year through July is lower than the average of just a single month between fiscal years 1992 and 2024.

“Again this month, the results are clear: President Trump’s border security agenda is restoring order and putting the safety of the American people first,” Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Markwayne Mullin said in the statement.

“DHS remains focused on enforcing our immigration laws, securing the border, and ensuring those who enter our country illegally are removed swiftly.”

According to the CBP, the continued decline in border crossings and apprehensions reflects the impact of “robust enforcement policies.”

CBP Commissioner Rodney S. Scott credited clear policies, strong enforcement, and the work of frontline personnel for delivering positive results at America’s borders.

CBP data show there were 103,028 enforcement encounters at the southwest land border between October 2025 and June this year.

In the entirety of fiscal year 2025, there were a total of 443,671 encounters, less than the more than 2 million encounters registered in each of the previous two fiscal years under the prior administration.

According to Border Patrol’s 2025–2029 Strategy report, the agency’s plan to tackle illegal immigrants includes expanding physical infrastructure, such as checkpoints, barriers, and permanent towers, across all regions of the United States.

The strategy details plans to deploy advanced autonomous surveillance systems in order to detect and identify illegal immigrants.

Illegal immigrants from Mexico and Guatemala are apprehended by U.S. Border Patrol officers after crossing a section of border wall into Ruby, Arizona, on Jan. 4, 2025. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

While Border Patrol works to counter the inflow of illegal immigrants in the country, the agency’s workforce has seen strong growth.

In June, the CBP said that 21,471 Border Patrol agents were serving on America’s front lines, the highest number in the agency’s 102-year history. CBP credited the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law by President Donald Trump last year, for fueling “increased applicant interest” as well as enabling the agency to attract top talent.

Members of U.S. Border Patrol at the U.S.-Mexico border in Eagle Pass, Texas, on March 5, 2025. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Illegal Immigrant Crackdown

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is cracking down on criminal illegal immigrants across the country.

In an Aug. 7 statement, ICE said it arrested more than 1,200 illegal immigrants across Georgia under Operation Safe Community—Atlanta, which targeted people with criminal histories, including charges of aggravated assault, sex crimes, assault and battery, and crimes against children.

“Removing these criminal alien offenders from Georgia neighborhoods makes for much safer communities,” ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations acting Assistant Director Patricia Hyde said in the statement.

ICE said on July 14 that its Harlingen division arrested 238 illegal immigrants in a single day, setting a record for Texas’ Rio Grande Valley. Among the arrested were alleged criminals with convictions for sexual battery, attempted kidnapping, and drug possession.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement personnel at George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston, Texas, on March 23, 2026. Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images

The Trump administration is also imposing heavy fines on illegal immigrants. In a July 23 statement, DHS said that more than $84 billion in civil fines have been imposed on such individuals. This includes a $998-per-day charge levied on any illegal immigrant who does not leave the country despite a final order for removal.

A group of Democratic lawmakers criticized the fines, accusing the Trump administration of improperly using immigration penalties to “intimidate law-abiding immigrants,” according to a July 20 statement from the office of Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.).

In a July 17 letter to DHS and DOJ officials, the lawmakers said that in assessing fines against illegal immigrants, the departments “appear to have abandoned critical safeguards that have long prevented law-abiding immigrants from being improperly targeted with unreasonable penalties.”

In June 2025, when DHS announced streamlining the process for fining illegal immigrants, then-DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin justified the need for such fines.

“The law doesn’t enforce itself; there must be consequences for breaking it,” McLaughlin said in a statement at the time.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 15:40
Tyler Durden

Energy Drinks Overtake Coffee As Gen Z's Primary Caffeine Source

Zero Rss
13 hours 59 minutes ago
Energy Drinks Overtake Coffee As Gen Z's Primary Caffeine Source

Filippo Falorni, Citi’s lead US equity-research analyst covering beverages and household and personal-care companies, published his latest survey of 2,400 US energy-drink consumers, revealing a significant generational shift in caffeine consumption.

Energy drinks, led by category giants Red Bull, Monster, and others, have overtaken coffee as the primary caffeine source among Gen Z consumers. In other words, younger Americans are increasingly abandoning the morning cup of coffee, even as Millennials, Gen Xers, and Baby Boomers continue to rely on it for their daily boost.

Among respondents aged 16 to 24, 30.6% now identify energy drinks as their primary caffeine source, up from 20.6% last year. Coffee fell to 27.3% from 40.4%, meaning energy drinks have overtaken coffee among the youngest cohort surveyed. Across all older age groups, coffee is the primary source of morning caffeine.

Falorni added more color: 

Based off our survey results, younger consumers are increasingly comfortable with using energy beverages as their primary caffeine source, with 30.6% and 24.3% of 16-24 and 25-34 year-olds, respectively, reporting energy drinks are their primary source of caffeine, up markedly from 20.6% and 19% in our 2025 survey and above the 23.6% for total respondents (vs. 16.6% in 2025) and only 12% for the 55+ age group (vs. 7.7% in 2025). We also highlight that coffee consumption is lowest for the youngest demographic we surveyed, with only 27.3% of 16–24-year-olds stating coffee was their primary caffeine source (down significantly from 40.4% in 2025) vs. 40.8% for total respondents (also down from 47.4% in 2025) and 60.4% for the 55+ age group

Looking specifically at energy drink consuming respondents, we can see the coffee category has been the largest share donor to energy beverages across all age groups, with 45% of all respondents reporting coffee was their primary source of caffeine before switching to energy beverages vs. 30% for soft drinks and 10% for tea. 

Other compelling findings in the survey:

  • Women accounted for 58% of consumers who entered the category during the past year, compared with only 29% of consumers who have been drinking energy beverages for six years or longer.
  • Zero-sugar products now represent about 49% of US energy-drink sales, up from 37% in 2021.
  • Energy-drink prices have risen only 4.9% since late 2021, compared with 42% for soda and 47% for coffee, giving Monster and Red Bull considerable room to raise prices.
  • About 40% of respondents increased their energy drink consumption over the past year, while just 20% reduced it.
  • Brand loyalty is soft: 51% switched their primary brand during the past year, making flavor innovation and shelf space critical.
  • Monster and Red Bull control about 70% of the market despite a surge of challenger brands.

In markets, Monster is outperforming Celsius year-to-date: 

Our latest coverage in the space includes the report that Rockstar founder Russell Weiner has accumulated a roughly $300 million stake in Celsius Holdings and is preparing an activist campaign aimed at accelerating the company's turnaround. Read the full report here.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 15:20
Tyler Durden

US Lost 25% Of Its Reaper Drones In Iran War, Officials Estimate

Zero Rss
14 hours 39 minutes ago
US Lost 25% Of Its Reaper Drones In Iran War, Officials Estimate

Amid a recent avalanche of media headlines warning of significantly depleted US weapons stockpiles, The Washington Post is out with another fresh report Thursday which sounds the alarm, this time over advanced drones.

The US military lost at least 45 MQ-9 Reaper drones during the Iran war, American defense officials were quoted as saying. The same officials estimate that this constitutes roughly 25% of the Pentagon's fleet.

2024 image of American MQ-9 Reaper UAV brought down in Yemen’s Marib. ClashReport/X

If these were the type of small, cheap drones which have been prevalent in the Russia-Ukraine war, no one would see this as much of a problem, but Reapers are highly advanced surveillance systems and also hunter-killer aircraft, capable of flying for 27+ hours straight, and with some variants able to push past 40 hours. 

Made by General Atomics, each drone costs between $30 million to $50 million. With 45 drones wiped out, this means that well over one billion dollars in hardware was either shot out of the sky or crashed in the context of Iran war operations.

The US has also at times lost parked aircraft at bases that came under Iranian attack in the Gulf. This was especially true of even pricier large aerial refueling tankers.

The Washington Post explains why the Reaper has been vulnerable to shootdown by Iranian forces over the past several months in the following:

The aircraft have seen heavy use around the Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping route that has become a major flash point in the conflict — and a key obstacle to negotiating a lasting peace deal. But the drones fly slowly and often at low altitudes, making them relatively easy targets for Iran’s military and its regional proxies in Yemen and Iraq.

A fourth U.S. official, who like the others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss Pentagon data, said that not all of the lost Reapers were shot down. An unspecified number crashed after their operators’ communications link to the drones failed, the official said.

That latter scenario constitutes quite a costly communications error scenario. It's unclear whether there may have been some instances that the comms were intercepted or hacked.

As we featured earlier in the US-Iran conflict, the MQ-9 Reaper drone is being gradually phased out by the US military, although General Atomics continues to produce it for foreign customers.

Prior rare battle footage of Reaper in action over Middle East skies:

Footage of a US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper UAV engaging an Iranian missile launcher with an AGM-114 Hellfire via @hey_itsmyturn. pic.twitter.com/vwjePW6ivU

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 1, 2026

Iran's proven ability to shoot down MQ-9 Reaper Drones is another demonstration of how it has managed to deploy some air defense, despite prior long-running claims from President Trump that the country's defenses had been "obliterated".

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 14:40
Tyler Durden

Kennedy Center Votes To Put Trump's Name On Building, Close For Renovations

Zero Rss
14 hours 59 minutes ago
Kennedy Center Votes To Put Trump's Name On Building, Close For Renovations

Authored by Jackson Richman via The Epoch Times,

The John F. Kennedy Center’s board voted on Aug. 13 to close the venue for renovations and place President Donald Trump’s name on the building.

“In its meeting today, the board voted to change the front of the ​building’s facade to read ‘The John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts Restored and Renovated ⁠By President Donald J. Trump,‘ and renamed the physical site ’the President Donald J. Trump Plaza,’” said Democratic Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio), an ex ​officio member on the iconic performing arts center’s board.

The final decision, however, will be up to U.S. District Judge Christopher R. Cooper.

While the board voted to close the main building for renovations, the REACH, a separate building on the campus, will stay open for limited programming.

It is unclear how long the renovations will take. The Epoch Times has reached out to the Kennedy Center for comment.

President Donald Trump announced in February that the Kennedy Center would be closed for a two-year renovation.

Cooper blocked the planned move on May 29 and ordered that Trump’s name be removed from the institution.

On June 11, the Trump administration appealed the ruling, only to be denied.

The Kennedy Center requested that the court give it more time to follow the order, citing that its management planned to present options to the board for a mid-July vote.

The choices included a full closure with no ongoing programming, a partial closure that would allow “some continued public access and limited programming in spaces unaffected” by the construction work, and executing “a highly limited series of phased closures” to fix the building’s most critical infrastructure needs while having a full slate of programming.

The venue claimed the court order “did not affirmatively require the board to reschedule programming that had previously been canceled or to seek new programming,” and did not stop the board from giving the green light for closing the building.

“Center management currently intends for the center and its building to maintain an operational model past the originally planned closure date of July 5,” the filing reads.

“That model, which the center is currently following, contemplates continued public access to the center’s public spaces and to the living memorial for President Kennedy.”

Trump implemented multiple changes to the Kennedy Center last year, including firing the board and its president, David Rubenstein, whom he said did not share his “vision for a Golden Age in arts and culture,” and renovating the institution, which he called “tired, broken, and dilapidated.”

Trump replaced the board with new appointees, alongside existing ex officio members designated by Congress. The new board then elected the president as chairman.

In a May 29 Truth Social post, after the court blocked the building’s planned two-year closure and renaming, Trump said the venue was originally scheduled to undergo “large-scale renovations and construction due to years of neglect, decay, and poor maintenance.”

The court ruling blocking the name change and closure was in response to a lawsuit brought by Beatty.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 14:20
Tyler Durden

FBI Seized Mark Walter's Devices Months Before Record $12.5 Billion Lakers Sale

Zero Rss
15 hours 9 minutes ago
FBI Seized Mark Walter's Devices Months Before Record $12.5 Billion Lakers Sale

Summary:

  • Thursday: Yahoo Sports reporter Jack Baer said, "Mark Walter is reportedly facing a cash crunch."
  • Thursday: FT reports that the FBI seized devices belonging to Mark Walter last year as part of an investigation.
  • Wednesday: Josh Kushner and Bob Iger stun the sports world with a record-shattering $12 billion Lakers takeover deal.
FT Reports Has Probed Mark Walter's Empire 

One day after billionaire Mark Walter announced the record $12.5 billion sale of the Los Angeles Lakers to a group led by Josh Kushner and former Disney chief Bob Iger, the Financial Times reported that the FBI seized the phone of Guggenheim Investments President Dina DiLorenzo last year as part of a federal investigation into entities controlled by Walter.

DiLorenzo's device was taken the same day federal agents seized Walter's phone and laptop in September, according to people familiar with the federal probe. Important to note, Walter is the co-founder and CEO of Guggenheim Partners. 

They noted that prosecutors focused on whether Guggenheim Investments properly recorded revenue within Guggenheim Private Investments.

Guggenheim said auditors issued "unqualified opinions" on the 2024 and 2025 financial statements of the subsidiary that owns the private-investments business. Walter-controlled insurers previously disclosed subpoenas from the Manhattan U.S. Attorney's Office and the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The report continued:

Insurance companies controlled by Walter disclosed in June that they had received subpoenas in connection with investigations by the US attorney's office in Manhattan and the Securities and Exchange Commission. The US attorney's office declined to comment. The FBI did not respond to a request for comment.

While the scrutiny of the insurers has been publicly disclosed, the seizure of DiLorenzo's phone suggests authorities have also examined Walter's other companies, including Guggenheim, the securities firm and asset management giant. It was not clear what stage of the investigations authorities were at.

. . .

Walter's holdings, including insurers Delaware Life and Clear Spring Life and Annuity, now sit inside TWG. The insurers disclosed in June that they held more than $20bn of investments in affiliated entities, which they had previously marked as unaffiliated. They are now seeking to divest or restructure these holdings to bring down their percentage of related-party investments.

Yahoo Sports reporter Jack Baer noted earlier, "Mark Walter is reportedly facing a cash crunch." 

Wall Street Journal noted the same:

The closeness of the federal investigation to the abrupt sale announcement puts new scrutiny on Walter's decision to sell the Lakers in one of the largest transactions in sports history. 

Josh Kushner, Bob Iger Stun Sports World With Record-Shattering $12 Billion Lakers Takeover Deal

The Los Angeles Lakers are being sold to billionaire venture capitalist Josh Kushner, founder of Thrive Capital, and former Disney CEO Bob Iger for a record-breaking $12 billion, according to a new ESPN report.

The sports news website said:

The businessmen were involved in the expansion process in Las Vegas, but in a stunning turn, they pivoted to make an aggressive offer to buy the Lakers from Mark Walter, who had purchased a controlling interest in the team from the Buss family last year for a franchise valuation of approximately $10 billion.

The $12 billion buyout price implies an increase of at least 20% in the Lakers' value in less than a year.

Josh Kushner, the younger brother of Jared Kushner, and Iger released the following statement:

"As lifelong NBA fans, we are deeply honored for the opportunity to become stewards of the Los Angeles Lakers, one of the most iconic sports franchises in the world. We have immense respect for the leadership and vision of Jerry and Jeanie Buss.

"Our long-term commitment is to build on that foundation, compete at the highest level, and serve this extraordinary team, its fans, and the city of Los Angeles."

TWG Global CEO Mark Walter, who purchased control of the Lakers from the Buss family last year at a valuation of about $10 billion, has a sports holdings portfolio that includes stakes in the Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Sparks, Chelsea Football Club, the Professional Women's Hockey League and several auto-racing teams, including Cadillac Formula 1.

"Owning the Los Angeles Lakers has been one of the great honors of my life, an extraordinary investment, but what I will carry with me is the community, the fans, and a city that treats this team as family. I am grateful to Jeanie Buss, the Buss family, the players, and the staff for welcoming me into this chapter. The Lakers belong to Los Angeles, and I have every confidence the best is still ahead," Walter said in a statement.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 14:10
Tyler Durden

Panama Canal Fees Hit Record As El Nino, Hormuz Crisis Choke Global Shipping

Zero Rss
15 hours 59 minutes ago
Panama Canal Fees Hit Record As El Nino, Hormuz Crisis Choke Global Shipping

Panama Canal transit auction prices have surged to record highs this summer as an intensifying El Niño and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz upend global shipping routes. 

A Bloomberg report Friday morning said a supertanker paid a record $4.6 million at auction to bypass the growing queue and secure an earlier transit slot next week. The spike in canal fees and vessel wait times threatens to further raise freight costs, reinforcing growing concerns about inflationary pressures across global supply chains.

Daily auctions for August passage through the canal's busiest locks have averaged about $1.1 million, more than 16 times the average during the same period last year, according to the Financial Times, citing Argus Media. Recent auctions for the larger locks averaged a record $2.5 million. 

Bloomberg said that the liquefied petroleum gas supertanker G. Arete paid a staggering $4.6 million to skip the line, topping an earlier auction this week that exceeded $4 million.

At the same time, the Hormuz chokepoint disruption has pushed Asian buyers toward crude oil and petroleum products at major US export terminals in the Gulf of America, increasing demand for canal passage. Meanwhile, falling canal water levels linked to intensifying El Niño weather conditions, such as drought and limited rainfall, are constraining traffic, which are the main drivers behind rising transit costs. 

"The problem right now is the water levels are dropping steadily, and it's not supposed to be doing that from May to December," said Ross Griffith, head of Americas freight pricing at Argus, who the FT quoted. This year's El Niño has already disrupted marine traffic on European rivers such as the Rhine and Danube, leading to cruise cancellations and freight rerouting.

More color from the FT:

The Panama Canal Authority told the FT that some vessels that recently transited have paid amounts exceeding $1mn at auction to meet their specific market needs and reflected "temporary market fluctuations", not a tariff set by the Panama Canal.

"The announced draft adjustments will not reduce the number of daily vessel transits," an authority spokesperson said. But depending on how conditions change, the authority could impose further restrictions, the spokesperson added.

Parash Jain, managing director and HSBC's global head of transport and logistics research, told clients earlier this week that concerns are mounting that other key waterways around the world are also facing lower water levels, constraining shipping:

El Niño increases both drought and flood risks by shifting rainfall patterns, accelerating evaporation, and lowering river levels at key gateways such as the Panama Canal and Rhine River, while creating floods in Asia and South America, reducing harvests. Authorities respond with draught limits, caps on daily transits, and tighter slot availability, which forces vessels to load less, wait longer, or split cargoes, thus reducing effective capacity and supporting freight rates. Indeed, from 26 August, The Panama Canal Authority is lowering the maximum draft for the largest vessels transiting the canal, preparing for El Niño (6 August, Maritime Executive).

The strengthening El Niño episode poses risks well beyond shipping. As major institutional desks have warned, drought, flooding and disrupted harvests could tighten agricultural supplies and place renewed upward pressure on global food prices

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 13:20
Tyler Durden

Boeing Unveils Cheap Radar Seeker Built From Off-The-Shelf Parts

Zero Rss
16 hours 19 minutes ago
Boeing Unveils Cheap Radar Seeker Built From Off-The-Shelf Parts

By Michael Scanlon of Defense News

Boeing revealed an ultra-low-cost radar seeker Tuesday as this year’s Space and Missile Defense Symposium kicked off in Huntsville, Alabama, pitching it as a way to get missile guidance on more weapons for less money.

Installed in the nose of a missile or bomb, the seeker locates the target and guides the weapon toward it. Seekers are among the most expensive parts of a guided weapon, and Boeing’s argument is that their cost is what limits how many the military can buy.

Boeing’s Ultra Low-Cost Seeker, or ULCS, is an active seeker, meaning it emits its own radar signal rather than relying on one from an aircraft or a ground station. Boeing built it largely from commercial parts adapted for military use, and it is still in development.

The company said it is looking at using the ULCS in its air and missile defense interceptors, its guided bombs and its cruise missiles, because its design allows for reuse across all three rather than requiring a different seeker for each weapon.

Boeing said the seeker is designed for strikes from the air, land or at sea, in any weather and against moving targets. The company ran several tests on the ULCS earlier this summer.

Engineers checked the sensor design in an anechoic chamber, which absorbs stray signal reflections. The seeker also flew aboard a Beechcraft 1900 over land and water, where Boeing said it found and tracked targets as expected.

At Spaceport America in New Mexico, the seeker tracked a passing drone from a fixed position on the ground. Boeing then mounted it on a rocket standing in for a missile and launched it at a second drone carrying a reflector, which bounced radar back as a full-size target would. Boeing said the seeker survived the acceleration and vibration of every test, and detected and tracked its targets each time.

Reuse across weapons is the major selling point, according to Boeing.

“We are developing ULCS with the goal of sharing a common sensor architecture across several of our programs,” said Bob Ciesla, vice president of Boeing Precision Engagement Systems. He said the seeker is modular and built to an open standard so Boeing can fit it to different weapons and change it later without redesigning it.

Boeing already builds seekers for other weapons, some of them for competitors. The company makes the active radar seeker for the Lockheed Martin PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement interceptor and said it drew on that work for ULCS while aiming to build something cheaper for use against less sophisticated threats.

Steve Wright, Boeing’s senior manager for weapon sensors and advanced guidance, said work remains to be done.

“We still have more work to do, but the rapid testing our teams have completed prove[s] that this capability is real and will fundamentally change how we look at seeker affordability across our programs,” he said.

Boeing said its teams are studying the test data and using the results to shape the next round of work, including several flight tests in 2027 that will attempt to more closely replicate real-world scenarios.

Boeing is not alone in its attempts to exploit modularity. On Aug. 10, Lockheed Martin announced Strigo, a line of radio-frequency sensors, missile datalinks and seeker technologies built around the same modular premise, designed to serve a variety of weapons.

Boeing did not say whether its ULCS is being funded internally or attached to any existing funded weapons program. Nor did it say just how ultra-low the cost of its new seeker will be.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 13:00
Tyler Durden

"We Do Bad Things To Bad People": Hegseth Unveils New Motto For Counter Cartel Coalition

Zero Rss
16 hours 59 minutes ago
"We Do Bad Things To Bad People": Hegseth Unveils New Motto For Counter Cartel Coalition

Via The Libertarian Institute 

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth declared that the new motto of the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition (ACCC) is "we do bad things to bad people."

"The new motto of the ACCC is 'we do bad things to bad people.' That’s the mentality I want to have inside this room," he said on Wednesday. "Ultimately, we’re dealing with bad people that have done a lot of bad things to a lot of good people for a very long time. And they’re about to meet a new sheriff in town in the ACCC."

Under President Donald Trump and Hegseth, the Department of War has significantly expanded military operations in South America. The US has bombed dozens of vessels it claims are operated by cartels. Additionally, the US has attacked Venezuela and kidnapped the country’s president, and Trump is threatening that Cuba is next. 

The ACCC is an American-led coalition that Hegseth says will target "narco-terrorists" and drug traffickers. US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) has conducted dozens of strikes, killing over 200 people. The Pentagon has labeled the dead as narco-terrorists. However, several family members of victims have asserted the dead were engaged in fishing or other legal activities. The DEA says the operations have not impacted the flow of drugs into the US.

Last month, The Washington Post reviewed a DEA assessment that found the strikes on vessels operated by alleged narco-terrorists have not changed the amount or price of cocaine entering the US. US military officials also admitted to Congress that the operations have had no impact on purity.

The DEA said that cartels have designed new methods to smuggle drugs into the US. Cartels have bribed Colombian officials to get the location of US warships and used small aircraft for alternative routes to traffic cocaine into the US. 

"When you squeeze the balloon on one side, it always expands on the other side," one DEA official told The Post. "They always find the weak spots and exploit them."

A senior Colombian official also told the outlet that the US military operations have had little impact on the cartels. "There was a dissuasive effect in one type of transportation," the source explained.

"So it has forced them to seek out other methods. Taking the drugs out through ports has increased, stockpiling it on large ships," the official added.

Hegseth travels to Panama, calls narcoterrorists and traffickers 'the ISIS and al-Qaeda of the Western Hemisphere' at conference https://t.co/wUYUJIhqpy via @OANN

— Terrie Lake (@terrielake) August 13, 2026

Congress has not authorized the President to wage war against foreign drug cartels. The White House has attempted to justify the lethal operation by designating the cartels as narco-terrorists. However, drug smuggling is a criminal act, not an act of war. Senator Rand Paul has argued the strikes amount to extrajudicial killing. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 12:20
Tyler Durden

Russia To Intensify Attacks On Sources Of Western Support In Ukraine: Lavrov

Zero Rss
17 hours 19 minutes ago
Russia To Intensify Attacks On Sources Of Western Support In Ukraine: Lavrov

At the end of June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in an unusual move declared the start of a 40-day intensified pressure campaign against Russia, designed to force Moscow to the negotiating table and agree on terms favorable to Ukraine to end the war.

This was an effort seize on the momentum of repeat drone hits on Russian refinery and energy infrastructure - a reality Russia has suffered over many months, leading to an ongoing fuel crisis spanning dozens of cities and regions, and especially Crimea, which earlier in the summer had to temporarily halt fuel sales to common citizens for a time.

In mid-June, Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov proclaimed  "Hell is beginning," for Russia and its military. "Logistics are being cut off. Crimea is being isolated," he said at the time. From there, drone attacks across the Moscow region greatly intensified.

But Russia in turn responded with its own major campaign. In response to major nightly long-range Ukrainian drone attacks deep into its territory, Russia sent more and more ballistic missiles on Kiev - and even the far West areas of Ukraine.

On Friday Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has essentially declared Zelensky's 40-day campaign to be defeated and moot. He described in a fresh media interview that not only will Russian forces implement a tougher response against Ukraine, but will go after the sources of Western support. He specifically raised the issue of the United States and its role.

via Associated Press

"We have submitted a series of questions to the State Department requesting comment, including on the matter of intelligence data and the fact that the US is far more deeply involved in organizing and executing strikes deep within Russian territory against civilian targets. We await a response," Lavrov told state television, as quoted in Reuters.

"Russia will intensify its military campaign in Ukraine and seek to destroy every element used by the West to sustain Kiev’s war effort," the top diplomat said.

The Foreign Ministry has of late accused Ukraine of "brazen acts of ​terrorism" against shipping in the Black Sea, amid tit-for-tat ongoing attacks which have disrupted energy and grain shipping.

"We will not sink to their level. Instead, we will adopt much harsher methods to destroy everything that enables the West to fuel Kiev’s war machine. We are already doing this, and they are already moaning," Lavrov asserted.

On the question of initiatives toward peace which Washington once prioritized (but now no longer seems to), Lavrov quoted Putin as saying while alluding back to the Alaska summit:

"Donald, you sent ​us proposals, and I’ve given them some thought. There are matters that require compromise. But I ‌accept ⁠your proposals in the form you sent them to me."

As for Lavrov's questions on Washington's covert targeting support to Ukraine, the Trump administration is unlikely to give a direct response or acknowledgement to the query. 

President Trump at this start of his term vowed repeatedly to find a swift end to the war and a lasting peace, but this has remained elusive, and instead it appears he has kept up US intelligence and weapons support to Kiev - something that many MAGA supporters wanted to see a halt to.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 12:00
Tyler Durden

'I Shot Brian Thompson': Luigi Mangione Pleads Guilty To Federal Charges In UnitedHealthcare CEO Killing

Zero Rss
17 hours 36 minutes ago
'I Shot Brian Thompson': Luigi Mangione Pleads Guilty To Federal Charges In UnitedHealthcare CEO Killing

Luigi Mangione, the 28-year-old accused of assassinating UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, pleaded guilty in Manhattan federal court on Friday to the federal charges against him - admitting that he went to New York with the intent to kill Thompson.

Luigi Mangione attends a pre-trial appearance at Manhattan Criminal Court on August 11, 2026 in New York City. David Dee Delgado/Pool/Getty Images

The plea came during an 11 a.m. hearing before U.S. District Judge Margaret Garnett, added to the calendar at the last minute this week at the joint request of prosecutors and Mangione's defense team.

"I shot Brian Thompson," he told Garnett.

Members of Brian Thompson's family were present in the courtroom. Outside, a crowd of Mangione supporters gathered - a fixture of his court appearances since his arrest.

Abril Rios, a self-proclaimed "Mangionistas" waits for the hearing, set to start at 11 a.m. Lone Pine Press The charges

Mangione was charged with two federal counts: interstate stalking resulting in death, and stalking through the use of interstate facilities resulting in death. Each carries a maximum sentence of life in prison.

Judge Garnett dismissed a federal murder charge in January 2026 that would have carried a potential death penalty, removing capital exposure from the federal case.

A senior Justice Department official told Fox News on Thursday that "there is no deal" - meaning Mangione would be pleading guilty without a negotiated sentencing guarantee.

The plea is the latest milestone in a case that has gripped the country since December 4, 2024.

Onlookers obsessed with the case hope to get a peek of accused murderer Luigi Mangione inside the courtroom. AFP via Getty Images

Thompson, 50, a father of two, was gunned down on a Midtown Manhattan sidewalk outside the Hilton, hours before UnitedHealth Group was set to host its annual investor conference at the hotel. After a five-day, multistate manhunt, authorities apprehended Mangione at a McDonald's in Altoona, Pennsylvania.

Investigators recovered a manifesto criticizing the American health insurance industry - a discovery that split public reaction sharply. While many condemned the killing as a cold-blooded assassination, others treated Mangione as a dark symbol of mounting public frustration with the U.S. healthcare system.

A looming state battle

Friday's federal plea does not close the book. Mangione still faces a parallel state prosecution in New York for second-degree murder and weapons offenses, with trial scheduled to begin next month. Earlier terrorism-related counts in the state case have been dismissed.

The federal plea is expected to trigger an immediate clash over the state trial. Mangione's defense team is expected to argue the state case should be dismissed on double jeopardy grounds, contending he cannot be prosecuted twice for the same conduct.

"One-plus-one is two. Double jeopardy, by any common-sense definition," he shouted during a February court appearance.

The Manhattan District Attorney's Office has signaled strong opposition, arguing the federal and state charges address distinct legal harms. Legal experts have called the question genuinely open. "It is incredibly complicated," defense attorney Paul Shechtman told the New York Times earlier this month about New York's double jeopardy statute.

Retired NYPD inspector Paul Mauro suggested a plea without a deal could still serve Mangione: "He gets to serve his time in federal prison, where conditions are better, and he is hoping that the New York state double jeopardy law will knock out the state case."

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 11:43
Tyler Durden

"A Big Win Today": Trump Cheers As Trade Court Upholds Shutdown Of $800 De Minimis Duty Exemption

Zero Rss
17 hours 39 minutes ago
"A Big Win Today": Trump Cheers As Trade Court Upholds Shutdown Of $800 De Minimis Duty Exemption

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Court of International Trade on Aug. 13 upheld the Trump administration’s authority to end the de minimis exemption that allowed Americans to avoid paying duty on packages worth $800 or less.

The court held in a new order that President Donald Trump had legal authority to close the exemption, which he previously said was a legal loophole that benefited foreign vendors and criminals. A company had sued over the administration’s policy, claiming the president didn’t have the power to end the exemption.

The policy change, which took effect on Aug. 29, 2025, meant that all global parcel imports going forward would be subject to standard U.S. customs duties regardless of value or origin. Gifts worth less than $100 sent by individuals remained exempt.

Congress eliminated the de minimis exemption in an omnibus tax-and-spending bill in 2025, but that measure preserved the carveout until July 2027.

Trump signed Executive Order 14324 on July 30, 2025, ending the exemption, expanding a May 2025 policy that had already removed duty-free status for packages from China and Hong Kong.

The exemption had been in place in some form since 1938 and was last raised to $800 in 2015. Officials said it had become a loophole for traffickers and foreign e-commerce companies.

On Aug. 13, a three-judge panel of the New York-based court ruled against a Michigan-based auto parts importer that had challenged the rescission of the exemption. Detroit Axle argued that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) did not bestow independent authority on the president to revoke the exemption before July 2027.

The panel found that Trump had authority under IEEPA to end the exemption for low value imports from Canada, China, and Mexico, which he did in a series of executive orders in February 2025.

The IEEPA permits the president to rescind a trade-related “privilege,” even if that law did not allow him to levy entirely new tariffs, the trade court held.

In February, the Supreme Court ruled in Learning Resources v. Trump that the IEEPA does not confer statutory authority on the president to impose sweeping tariffs. The case did not deal with the de minimis carveout.

The trade court said in its new ruling that the president’s authority to “nullify [or] void … exercising any … privilege” does not violate separation of powers principles because the presidential rescission “is not an exercise of the power of the purse, as was the case in Learning Resources, and is not an exercise of the power to legislate” as cited in a 1998 precedent.

Trump celebrated the court victory in a Truth Social post.

The exemption is “one of the most DESPICABLE loopholes in American trade policy” that has been exploited by “Fentanyl Traffickers, Counterfeiters, and other Criminals shipping dangerous and illegal products into America,” he said.

The decision means low value packages from overseas will continue to face ordinary customs duties instead of entering the country duty-free.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 11:40
Tyler Durden

NATO Jets Shoot Down Drone Over Latvia, Which Blames 'Russian Electromagnetic Warfare'

Zero Rss
17 hours 59 minutes ago
NATO Jets Shoot Down Drone Over Latvia, Which Blames 'Russian Electromagnetic Warfare'

NATO jets have shot down another drone which spilled over into Baltic territory from the Ukraine war, Latvia's defense ministry announced Friday.

The fresh incident happened over eastern Latvian airspace on Friday. NATO "fighter jets have successfully shot down a foreign unmanned aerial vehicle that had entered Latvia as a result of Russian electromagnetic warfare," the ministry stated on X. 

via AFP

"The drone was destroyed over the Balvi region by aircraft taking part in NATO’s Baltic Air patrol mission," CNBC wrote based on the military statement. Further, "Latvia said airspace alerts were issued across several eastern and southern regions and lifted at 4:50 a.m. local time."

It was only described as "a foreign unmanned aerial vehicle" that had "flown into Latvia as a result of Russian electromagnetic warfare," the translated statement said. 

The reference suggests that Russian forces may have jammed and/or taken control of a Ukrainian drone, and sent it across the border. Just measures have become common for intercepting UAVs on the Ukrainian battlefield.

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs hailed the military's swift response on X, saying, "This is a confirmation that Latvian airspace is protected," and added: "At the same time, such incidents remind us that we must continue to strengthen the surveillance and anti-drone capabilities of Latvia’s eastern border in order to be able to detect, identify and neutralize any potential threat as quickly as possible."

Nearby Finland took drastic safety measures as a result of the incident:

Baltic Sea neighbor Finland also imposed temporary aviation and maritime restrictions in the eastern Gulf of Finland on Friday, its defense forces said on X. 

It described the move as a precautionary measure aimed at ensuring the safety of bystanders and the operational capabilities of authorities to counter potential drones. Hours later, the governor of Russia's northwest Leningrad region said air defences had shot down 54 Ukrainian drones. 

There have been at least a half-dozen significant drone incursion incidents over the Baltic nations over just the past year, often resulting in fighter jets being scrambled. For Latvia this is at least the second recent major shootdown incident.

NEW: Allied fighter jets have shot down a drone that entered Latvian airspace in the Balvi region in northeastern Latvia.

An airspace alert was declared shortly before 04:00 across several regions, including Balvi, Rēzekne and Alūksne. The alert was lifted about an hour later… pic.twitter.com/4UMfzDin4S

— GeoInsider (@InsiderGeo) August 14, 2026

There have been other repeat drone incidents in Europe, for example the spate of mystery UAV sightings over Northern and Western Europe. In some cases they've shut down airports. With these, it's anyone's guess as to the origins.

Some pundits have suggested these are merely irresponsible hobbyists, or else pranksters. However, the reality of projectiles entering neighboring countries as a result of the Ukraine war is much more serious, and a significant threat to these populations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 11:20
Tyler Durden

JPMorgan Debanks Polymarket Over Regulatory Concerns; Report

Zero Rss
18 hours 14 minutes ago
JPMorgan Debanks Polymarket Over Regulatory Concerns; Report

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

JPMorgan Chase ended a banking relationship with Polymarket over regulatory concerns, according to the Financial Times.

JPMorgan notified the prediction market platform in October 2025 that it needed to find a new bank, the Financial Times reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Polymarket now works with an unidentified lender.

Still, JPMorgan has maintained other ties with Polymarket. The bank is allegedly keen on a potential underwriting role should Polymarket attempt to go public.

Polymarket reportedly said that it continues to have a “close, active relationship” with JPMorgan.

Cointelegraph has approached JPMorgan and Polymarket for comment.

Prediction markets are facing increasing regulatory scrutiny in the US and abroad. 

More than a dozen US states have taken legal action against Polymarket, Kalshi or both over sports event contracts, while authorities in several countries have also blocked or restricted access to Polymarket.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 11:05
Tyler Durden

Tesla's New Roadster Reportedly Uses SpaceX Cold-Gas Thrusters To Fly

Zero Rss
18 hours 49 minutes ago
Tesla's New Roadster Reportedly Uses SpaceX Cold-Gas Thrusters To Fly

Tesla plans to unveil a redesigned Roadster sports car with limited "flying" capabilities later this month, The Information reported Friday morning, citing people familiar with the matter. The report follows this week's comments from Tesla's chief vehicle designer, who said the long-delayed Roadster is "coming soon."

The limited-edition Roadster reportedly uses SpaceX cold-gas thrusters to hover and will be remotely operated during the unveiling event, scheduled for later this month at the rocket company's testing site in McGregor, Texas.

"Between Elon Musk's promises of supernimble robots and interstellar colonization, the billionaire has spent plenty of time over the last decade hyping up another ambitious effort: the next version of the Roadster, the sporty electric vehicle that first put Tesla on the map. At first, he said he wanted the vehicle to be the fastest production car in the world. The Information began its report, noting that Musk is now pursuing a new "Flying" Roadster.

Tesla has moved away from the original 2017 design toward a carbon-fiber-tub architecture, with the latest prototype featuring two seats and butterfly doors. The thruster-equipped version is not expected to be street legal.

Tesla is putting cold-gas thrusters from SpaceX on the Roadster. This clip is from a podcast where you can hear them being tested. pic.twitter.com/XL6hrUV5D4 https://t.co/sKnXP4SLWP

— Robin (@xdNiBoR) August 14, 2026

Cold-gas thrusters generate lift by releasing pressurized gas through a nozzle without combustion. Common propellants include nitrogen, helium, compressed air, argon, and carbon dioxide. SpaceX uses these thrusters on the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets for pointing and roll control. 

Musk in 2018:

SpaceX option package for new Tesla Roadster will include ~10 small rocket thrusters arranged seamlessly around car. These rocket engines dramatically improve acceleration, top speed, braking & cornering. Maybe they will even allow a Tesla to fly …

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 9, 2018

Musk in 2019:

I’m not. Will use SpaceX cold gas thruster system with ultra high pressure air in a composite over-wrapped pressure vessel in place of the 2 rear seats.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 9, 2019

Musk this year:

You will get flying cars

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 12, 2026

The report also noted that Musk warned Tesla employees that the stunt later this month would be difficult to execute and could go awry, though he said it would be entertaining regardless.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 10:30
Tyler Durden

"Bin There, Done That?" Not Quite

Zero Rss
19 hours 4 minutes ago
"Bin There, Done That?" Not Quite

By Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy at Rabobank

Markets may be suffering from a growing sense of "bin there, done that" fatigue when it comes to geopolitical shocks, but central banks are in no position to throw recent developments into the bin just yet.

Take Hormuz. Both sides now claim to firmly control the Strait, President Trump appears to favour squeezing Iran economically (or, in Bessent’s words, “economic isolation like the world has never seen before”) rather than militarily (whilst Iran’s thinking may be pretty similar!), and reports of renewed US-Iran talks continue to circulate. On the surface, the situation looks calmer than it did a few weeks ago. Yet it remains as opaque as ever. Despite investors becoming more accustomed to these episodes, the net result has still been a gradual rise in crude oil prices and a renewed climb in European gas benchmarks towards this year's highs.

That is important because this week's US inflation report, while broadly on the mark, is unlikely to settle the debate within central banks. July CPI showed further moderation, while last week's disappointing US payrolls figures strengthened the case for policy doves. However, policymakers are, once again, increasingly confronted by a growing collection of supply-side risks that have the potential to reignite inflationary pressures. Indeed, this week offered a reminder that the global economy's logistical arteries are coming under strain from multiple directions.

The White House released a report on ‘illegal’ transshipment, identifying Canada, the EU, India, Israel, Japan, Mexico, South Korea and Taiwan as first tier (also because of large volumes) conduits for evading US tariffs. Although the report concludes that it “is too early to determine the net effect of the Administration’s tariff and anti-transshipment policies”, it serves as a reminder that the tariff heat remains on.

Talking about heat, Europe has entered its fifth heatwave of the year. Combined with severe drought conditions, the extreme weather is threatening agricultural yields, constraining electricity generation and disrupting transport infrastructure. Water levels on the Rhine, which accounts for around 80% of Germany's inland waterway freight transport, have dropped towards critical levels. Transport costs (gasoline barge) from Rotterdam to Cologne have doubled (even quadrupled since end of June), creating yet another bottleneck for European industry.

Nor are these challenges confined to Europe.

Attention may shift towards Panama later this year, where a strengthening El Niño threatens to reduce rainfall and inflows into Gatun Lake, the key water source for the Panama Canal. Shipping restrictions are already being discussed as water levels remain below seasonal norms. Unsurprisingly, container freight rates continue to climb, with Shanghai-New York shipping costs reaching their highest level in more than two years and Shanghai-LA picking up again as well.

Ironically, climate change may also create new future opportunities. Climate change may imply softer European winters (lower gas demand?) and higher aggregate agricultural production due to longer growing seasons, particularly in Northern Europe. Similarly, Arctic shipping routes are becoming increasingly navigable, potentially cutting travel times between Asia and Europe dramatically. Yet that is a story for the future. For now, the list of constraints remains considerably longer than the list of potential positive externalities.

The grain market offers a particularly striking example. Exports from both Russia and Ukraine are facing severe disruption. Ukrainian Black Sea ports have been closed for weeks following intensified attacks, while low Danube water levels are limiting alternative routes. At the same time, Ukrainian strikes have disrupted Russian export infrastructure in both the Sea of Azov and around Novorossiysk. Taken together, these disruptions affect a substantial share of global wheat exports and reinforce the increasingly constructive outlook for agricultural prices.

Viewed in isolation, none of these developments necessarily forces a central bank response. Taken together, however, they help explain why policymakers remain reluctant to declare victory over inflation.

The Fed is a case in point. While softer inflation and weaker labor market data support the argument for remaining on hold, hawks will continue to question whether inflation can sustainably return to target in an environment characterized by geopolitical uncertainty, higher commodity prices and recurring supply disruptions. Our base case remains that the FOMC stays on hold for the remainder of this year, but the risk of another hike cannot be dismissed.

In Japan, the debate looks even more skewed towards further tightening. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has once again stressed the importance of Bank of Japan independence while also emphasizing the need to achieve the inflation target sustainably. Following the recent intervention to support the yen, policymakers are increasingly aware that exchange-rate management ultimately requires support from monetary policy. As USD/JPY retraces some of its earlier decline, the case for another BoJ hike is gradually strengthening.

Australia tells a similar story. The RBA left rates unchanged this week, and markets initially interpreted the accompanying statement as relatively dovish. Governor Bullock quickly pushed back against that view, revealing that policymakers debated both holding and hiking, and noting that another increase remains "quite possible". The RBA clearly hopes previous tightening will prove sufficient. We remain unconvinced and continue to expect one more hike later this year.

Even in the UK, where the Bank of England remains reluctant to tighten further, yesterday's stronger-than-expected GDP data provided ammunition for the hawks. Growth was broad-based, investment contributed positively and GDP per capita rose by a healthy 0.4% q/q. As our UK strategist Stefan Koopman notes, however, caution is warranted. Britain has developed a habit of strong first halves followed by disappointing second halves. The key question is whether 2026 finally breaks that pattern.

And then there is Clacton. Yesterday's by-election evolved into one of the more uniquely British political events in recent memory, with Nigel Farage facing not Labour or the Conservatives, but the satirical Count Binface. Taking 62.8% of the vote, a clear improvement compared to his 2024 results, may help Reform UK to claim voters have effectively binned recent controversies. Yet, without a serious opponent from the other mainstream parties including Labour, one could question that of course. The upshot, though, is that the anti-establishment and populist wave is far from out in the UK.

All taken together, the broader lesson for markets is clear. Investors may increasingly feel that they have seen these shocks before. But central bankers cannot afford to adopt a bin-it-and-move-on approach. For them, the accumulation of supply-side risks remains impossible to ignore. And as long as that is the case, another rate hike somewhere in the world remains firmly on the table.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 10:15
Tyler Durden

UMich Sentiment Slumps In August As War Re-Escalated, Inflation Fears Tick-Up

Zero Rss
19 hours 10 minutes ago
UMich Sentiment Slumps In August As War Re-Escalated, Inflation Fears Tick-Up

Following July's rebound to pre-war levels, the preliminary August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was expected to weaken modestly as the MidEast re-escalated (and with it the price of gas).

Sure enough, the headline sentiment index tumbled from 55.2 to 51.0 (55.0 exp) with both Current Conditions (51.8 vs 54.8 prior vs 54.9 exp) and Expectations (50.6 vs 55.4 prior vs 55.2 exp) also both tumbling...

Decreases in sentiment were seen across the political spectrum, with Republicans exhibiting the strongest month-to-month decline in August. Sentiment among Republicans is now 19% below readings just prior to the Iran conflict and the lowest since the 2024 election.

Although the early-month weakening in sentiment was pervasive across various demographic groups, notably large reductions were seen among older consumers, lower-income consumers, and those without a college degree.

As Surveys of Consumers Director, Joanne Hsu noted: "these groups are all particularly vulnerable to any erosion of purchasing power stemming from inflation."

Across all consumers, only 8% expect their income growth to exceed inflation in the year ahead, down from 18% in December 2024, a reflection of the belief that high prices will continue to be burdensome.

While views of personal finances saw only minor declines, expected business conditions sank 11% for the short run and 17% for the long run.

Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up from 4.2% in July to 4.3% this month. The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran conflict began, along with all 2024 readings.

Long-run inflation expectations held steady at 3.3% for the third consecutive month, remaining a bit higher than its 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%.

Interestingly, it is Republicans' fear of inflation that is flat to rising (admittedly from very low levels) while Democrats and Independents see inflation continuing to slow...

Slowing inflation (CPI/PPI), weaker retail sales, and now sentiment sliding... not exactly a recipe for rate-hikes...

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 10:08
Tyler Durden

More Than Two-Thirds Of The Power Sought For US Data Centers Will Never Materialize

Zero Rss
19 hours 59 minutes ago
More Than Two-Thirds Of The Power Sought For US Data Centers Will Never Materialize

It was almost a year ago, in November 2025, when we first calculated that the AI supercycle was facing a huge problem: namely, a power shortfall of (at least) 44 nuclear power plants, or GW or energy, by 2028.

A Huge Problem For The AI Revolution: A Power Shortfall Of 44 Nuclear Power Plants By 2028 https://t.co/2ciiUudp8T

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 12, 2025

Fast forward to last week when we made another stunning discovery: the reason why Texas Gov Abbott froze the rollout of new data centers in his state is because the number of interconnection requests facing ERCOT had risen to a mindblowing 474 GW (of which 90% were data centers), when the state's highest ever power demand just hit 91GW. Needless to say, this will never happen in (maybe) a hundred years, but it does prompt the question we have been asking for years: where will the energy come from.

How mathematically impossible is the energy math behind the data center rollout? Just Texas alone is facing 474GW of interconnection requests (ERCOT), of which 90% is data centers. Which is why gov Abbott froze rollout of new data centers in Texas.

For context, ERCOT all-time… pic.twitter.com/sdl26FPmwL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 8, 2026

Well, as it turns out, the answer is nowhere. According to new projections from Wood Mackenzie, zmore than two-thirds of the electricity sought for the artificial intelligence boom in the US isn't likely to materialize due to "phantom" projects and long-shot pitches.

The consultancy, which was inspired by not only our recent use of the term "bragawatts", but the Bernstein report it came from (link here for pro subs) which reached the same conclusion...

Think it's just about tokens? Think again: the next AI crisis is real compute vs "bragawatts"

"We certainly don’t have a crystal ball, but we have spent a lot of time in the data center industry and think we’re pretty good at sniffing out the real builds from the “bragawatts”.…

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 21, 2026

... said it sees US grid operators and utilities likely committing to about 28% of the 1,066 gigawatts requested for data center projects (as most know by now, a gigawatt is the equivalent generating capacity of a traditional nuclear reactor: enough energy to power about 750,000 households for a year, or about 10-30 data centers).

While certainly no one expects every proposed project to be built, Bloomberg notes that the data reveals how inflated projections of future power demand complicate planning and budgeting by utilities and grid operators. That can translate into higher utility bills, since capital costs for upgrading infrastructure are typically covered through rate hikes.

"Everyone's trying to figure out the rules of the road in order to make this the most efficient process without increasing grid prices," said Alex Klaessig, co-founder of energy market intelligence firm Halcyon.

Developers have been taking a shotgun approach to pitching projects to utilities, seeking to get ahead in the AI build-out. That's overwhelming US grids and creating even more data center bottlenecks. The explosion of requests is stretching approval timelines, forcing more applications to be vetted than ever before, and threatening to undermine US efforts to compete in the global AI race. It's what prompted Texas to put a pause on all data center construction.

Of course, the counterfactual by the pro-AI lobby immediately emerged, to wit: "If we don't allow these data centers to come online as fast as we can, then we might lose the future benefits of AI," Klaessig said, oblivious that the future benefits of AI are already as good as lost when one considers that at this very moment China is building 37 nuclear reactors while the US is building... zero.

Meanwhile, just like double (and triple, and quadruple) ordering in the semiconductor industry, some developers are pitching the same project to multiple utilities, with plans to push ahead with the application that lands the best deal and speediest approval. That creates what the industry calls "phantom" applications, complicating efforts to accurately forecast true power demand.

"Grid operators don't know which ones are real and which ones aren't," said Glenn Schwartz, who heads energy policy at consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group. He estimates that only 20% to 30% of the power that developers are seeking will go toward projects that get built, due in part to phantom requests.

Flooded grid queues aren't specific to data centers: renewables projects are regularly hampered by long wait times to connect to electrical networks across the world.

While it's impossible to determine how many requests are duplicates, Reid Ramdathsingh of Rystad Energy estimates about half of the applications are credible on the biggest US grid, operated by PJM Interconnection LLC, which serves 67 million Americans from Illinois to Virginia. He sees 14% of applications as legitimate on the main grid in Texas, a state that has seen the fastest data center growth.

PJM said in a statement that it has taken steps to improve the forecasting of large loads.

Of course, the 1,066 gigawatts of applications cited by Wood Mackenzie would require a staggering jump in US electric capacity. The amount represents 83% of the nation's total utility-scale generation capacity at the end of last year, according to the US Energy Information Administration. 

Making matters worse and adding to the chaos, many applications are from firms with no prior experience building facilities with energy needs that can rival mid-sized cities. The projects of those first-time developers are often disproportionately large, though generally less likely to come to fruition than those from well-established big technology firms, said Wood Mackenzie analyst Caitlin Connelly.

To crack down on the barrage of requests, many utilities have introduced steep upfront application costs, demanding big-money collateral and near-perfect credit ratings. Such requirements are squeezing small to mid-sized developers that often pay project costs up front and then sell completed facilities to well-capitalized AI companies.

Getting through a queue used to be straightforward with utilities offering up electricity to developers, according to Brad Richter, senior vice president of energy at Hut 8 Corp., which manages 11 data centers. Now, for the most part, utilities are saying, 'I don't have it anymore,'" Richter said, noting that those power providers are increasingly "closed for business."

As we reported previously, Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered regulators on Aug. 3 to audit every data center seeking access to the state's main grid, effectively pausing those projects' approvals until reviews are complete. His surprise call puts $13 billion in industry revenues at risk and threatens to delay almost a fifth of America's data center pipeline in the medium term, according to BloombergNEF.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas is tracking about 474 gigawatts of connection requests, with around 90% of those from data centers, according to Abbott. That total, Bloomberg notes paraphrasing verbatim what we said earlier this week,  "is more than five times the system's record peak demand."

Ercot uses multiple screening stages to distinguish between speculative and credible projects, a spokesperson said.

Exelon Corp., a utility owner serving customers from Illinois to Delaware, in July slashed its pipeline of energy demands from data centers by nearly 40%, leaving a queue of about 11 gigawatts. Exelon is prioritizing connection requests that are likely to come to fruition.

"Utilities are using what they'll refer to as a 'first-ready, first-served' model, as opposed to a 'first-come, first-served' model, to weed out folks that really don't have the capability to deliver," said Brian Janous of Cloverleaf Infrastructure LLC, which works with utilities to develop ready-to-build sites for data center users and providers. 

And for a more detailed follow up on what this lack of energy means, we urge readers to go through the latest report by Bernstein's Madison Rezaei, titled "Data Center Pipeline Probabilities: Separating the credible developers from dudes with PowerPoints," (available to pro subscribers), in which the bank writes that "of the 492GW of capacity currently in our dataset, we anticipate 33% (135GW) are credible builds. There are a series of haircuts in progress here, the most meaningful of which is the stage - we consider physical construction progress to be a major indicator of credibility, whereas shiny press releases only go so far. The tenant haircut is the next most pronounced - for a high-quality, IG tenant, certainty goes up; whereas for some of the miners or longtail neoclouds, credibility is lower. The sponsor haircut is also meaningful, though less so than the prior two - this is a fast-moving space and we didn’t want to overpenalize new entrants who are showing clear signs of development and tenant signing. And finally, while there is lots of talk of NIMBYism and legislative hurdles, it is not a big loss for DC builds today (in fairness, we are grandfathering in builds that are already in progress)."

Rezaei continues: "We’re infrastructure people, so we tend to skew conservative and not give meaningful credit for announcements before we see progress of builds. That’s how we end up at the ~33% build rate. Importantly, we are not taking a stand (today) on the actual timing of that pipeline. The dataset would suggest target delivery of ~88GW by the end of 2028 (highly unlikely). We would consider the 135GW number to be a 5-10 year build (almost certainly undercounting for the out years)."

Bottom line: very little of the bombastic projections you see and hear every single day about the pace and size of the AI rollout will ever materialize. That also means that so much of the capital already invested in said rollout will be wasted. The question is how big the negative impact on stocks will be when people finally do the math. 

More in the Bernstein report available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 09:20
Tyler Durden

Farage Crushes Clacton By-Election With 63% As Comedy Candidates Dominate Longest Ballot In British History

Zero Rss
20 hours 34 minutes ago
Farage Crushes Clacton By-Election With 63% As Comedy Candidates Dominate Longest Ballot In British History

Nigel Farage has romped to victory in the Clacton by-election with 63.3% of the vote, seeing off 33 rivals including Count Binface, who won a quarter of the votes cast, on the longest ballot paper in British electoral history.

The Reform UK leader secured victory with 22,239 votes, which was 63.3% of the total vote and an increase on the 21,225 votes he secured when he was elected to the Essex seat at the 2024 General Election.

Count Binface, a comedian standing as a 5,900-year-old space warrior whose key policy was to freeze the price of ice cream in Clacton at 99p, was second with 9,455 votes, 26.9% of the total vote.

Mr Farage had triggered the poll and cast it as a ‘people vs the Establishment’ contest amid mounting questions over a £5 million donation from cryptocurrency tycoon Christopher Harborne.

However, a parliamentary inquiry into Mr Harborne’s donation has yet to conclude, and Mr Farage could still face another by-election within months if he is found to have broken House of Commons rules. He is expected to be interviewed by a standards watchdog within weeks of MPs returning to Westminster after their summer break.

The Reform leader, 62, declared himself the winner of the Clacton by-election in the early hours of Friday morning while ballot papers were still being counted. He then took the unprecedented step of skipping the formal result declaration, with his party claiming police had advised him to stay away due to a ‘credible threat’.

But, as Mark Angelides reports for LibertyNation.com, none of the big parties fielding a contender, what remains is who wins the narrative war.

Farage Stands Down to Step Up

The election was triggered by Farage resigning his seat last month. He did so voluntarily because of mounting stories over his financial situation, including donations and gifts he had received before running for Parliament. His argument was that it should be the voters of Clacton who decide his political fate rather than a scrutiny committee.

To be abundantly clear, Mr. Farage receiving a gift of £5 million is not illegal. Not declaring it is a breach of protocol because it occurred within 12 months of him running for office. With his return to the House of Commons, the internal investigation will continue. But what is the likely outcome? And what punishment – if any – is likely to befall the veteran campaigner?

If he is found to have broken the rules, the committee could suspend him from the House for a short period. In such a case, there is a possibility of a recall petition that would trigger a fresh by-election – which poses a conundrum. The purpose of such a contest would be to determine whether his Clacton constituency still had faith in him to be its Member of Parliament. This question was put to bed yesterday with Farage increasing his vote count and share compared with the 2024 general election.

And crucially, Nigel will have spent the last six weeks in his constituency gathering data. If he ends up having to fight yet another election, he will have up-to-date major information which other parties do not have access to. When it comes to campaigning, the data advantage cannot be underestimated.

But, as ever, the knives are out for Nigel Farage.

Establishment Closes Ranks

Former Prime Minister Keir Starmer, before his ousting, described Farage’s Reform Party as a threat to the nation. This is echoed across the myriad parties that make up British Parliament. In other recent by-elections, we have seen parties run what can best be described as paper candidates to unite around any party other than Reform.

The dominant narrative from the more established party leaders is that although they refused to stand a candidate in this “stunt” election triggered by Farage, they would certainly stand one in the potential next contest after the results of the scrutiny committee are released. But it is more than reasonable to argue that the other parties did engage in yesterday’s election. Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch posted on social media that voters should support “the Bin,” a reference to a parody candidate, “Count Binface,” who wears a trashcan on his head and a shiny “spacesuit.” By tacitly backing any competitor – even a joke contender – the party essentially threw its hat in the ring. Notably, Count Binface came second with almost 27%.

A Political Parallel

The current mantra is that Nigel Farage has triggered an unnecessary election that has cost taxpayers roughly £250,000 and was an affront to voters. And yet the same voices uttered no such displeasure when now-PM Andy Burnham was the beneficiary of a palace coup through a similar mechanism earlier this year.

With around 24,000 votes from one of the Labour Party’s safest seats, Mr. Burnham was drafted into Parliament and installed as leader and PM without a general election or even a vote by the party members. For those who do not support Labour, there is the mild stench of hypocrisy.

Both politicians foisted a by-election on the British public to better secure their positions. One did so to retain his position, the other to gain advancement.

Where is Reform Now?

Mr. Farage’s Reform Party has dominated polling for the last 18 months. While Mr. Burnham’s Labour Party has received a polling bounce of around 6% – quite a typical bump when a leader is changed mid-Parliament – almost every survey has suggested Reform would be the largest party at the next general election.

Farage is a threat to the Westminster establishment that has not been seen in at least 100 years. Assuming he navigates the committee's results and commits no major faux pas in the next three years, he may well be Prime Minister. And more so, he may be the harbinger of doom for the Conservative Party and relegate Labour to a desultory second-place finish.

It seems no wonder that the Westminster establishment wants to end his career as early as possible.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 08:45
Tyler Durden

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