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World Cup Hangover Triggers Retail Sales Slump In July, K-Shaped Economy Waning

Based on BofA's almost omniscient analysts, traders should expect a big disappointment this morning from US retail sales as the bank's data showed a huge drop in online retail (card not present) in July...

...because Prime Day and related promotions were pulled forward from July to June this year. Many other retail categories also saw m/m declines, including clothing, gas (due to lower prices) and furniture. Other factors driving the weakness in July likely included the heat wave around July 4 weekend and a modest post-World-Cup hangover effect.

And once again, BofA was right... US Retail Sales plunged 0.6% MoM in July (+0.1% MoM exp) - the biggest MoM drop since May 2025. This drop slowed the annual rise in retail sales to +5.0% YoY (still solid)...

Interestingly, unadjusted retail sales rose in July...

Both headline and core sales growth slowed YoY...

Most importantly, the 'Control Group' - which plugs directly into GDP calculation - dropped 0.4% MoM (dramatically worse than the +0.3% MoM rise expected).

Additionally, UBS noted that a key risk to the July data was fading support from larger tax refunds compliments of the OBBBA and that could be part of the disappointment today.

Under the hood, it was very mixed. A drop in gasoline station spending makes sense as gas prices dropped (before re-accelerating in August)...

But, the decline in online (non-store) retailer sales stands out...

This was the second biggest MoM drop Nonstore Retailers sales since COVID (likely due to the calendar shift form Prime Day as mentioned above)...

Real retail sales - admittedly roughly adjusted for CPI - remains positive, but slowed significantly in July...

Finally, the The latest BofA data provides additional evidence that K-shaped dynamics are waning. In each of the four weeks ending Aug 1, y/y total BAC card spending growth was stronger among lower- than higher-income HHs.

And this isn’t just due to higher gas prices. Even in discretionary categories, the “K” has turned into a “C” over the last couple of months: lower-income spending looks solid, while higher-income spending has cooled off modestly.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 08:38

Russia Quickly Rejects Ukraine's Offer Of Ceasefire On Black Sea Shipping

Ukraine has quietly floated a deal through a third-party mediator to halt reciprocal strikes on civilian vessels in the Black Sea, Reuters reports, in what appears to be a calculated bid to unfreeze a critical global commodity corridor and to relieve pressure on Ukraine's battered wartime economy.

The maritime artery remains a vital economic lifeline for both nations, channeling massive volumes of grain and agricultural supplies to world markets - especially the Middle East and Africa - but there's now been weekly and almost daily tit-for-tat attacks. 

via Reuters

With roughly 90% of Ukrainian grain and sunflower shipments departing from the primary port cluster of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenne, the fallout on Ukraine's agricultural sector has been severe.

Kyiv Post cites that as a result grain exports have fallen 76% year-on-year so far in August. But the publication notes that the pressure is longer one-sided, as "on Wednesday, Ukraine launched a major coordinated strike on Novorossiysk, Russia’s key Black Sea naval and grain-export hub, forcing all three grain terminals to suspend operations and hitting naval infrastructure."

It didn't take long on Friday for the Kremlin to dismiss the idea of a Black Sea ceasefire, blaming Ukrainian acts of "terrorism" against maritime traffic. ​Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused charged Kiev with "brazen acts of ​terrorism" against shipping.

"We view these attacks (by Ukraine) as a deliberate policy aimed at destabilizing ​civilian shipping in the Black Sea region to further escalate tensions and ​prolong the conflict, all with the blatant acquiescence of regional neighbours," Zakharova said.

"At the same time, we see no signs of improvement in the situation and, consequently, ​no grounds for half-measures that merely grant the Kyiv regime a temporary ​breathing space," she added.

Part of this grinding war of attrition if for each side to impose as much economic pain as possible, and Ukraine will be more easily squeezed by blocking its ability to export and import - given its key ports are all concentrated along its Black Sea coast.

Russian forces had hit more than 80 vessels believed involved in supplying the Ukrainian military in the month of July alone, state TASS wrote recently based on official defense ministry data.

Moscow seeks to sever military supply routes and disrupt arms shipments bound for Ukraine, but this has also obviously resulted in damaged and sunken tankers, auxiliary vessels, and even deaths of civilian bystanders among international shipping crew. It has accused Ukraine of seeking to hide military shipments under the guise of civilian cargo transit.

But comes amid a Turkish request to State to transfer ATACMS and cluster munitions to Ukraine. Turkey’s preferred side in the Black Sea conflict isn’t a well-kept secret. https://t.co/iCuJaSkq2n

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) August 14, 2026

Russia's reaction is somewhat expected, given it has long voiced that it has no interest in short-term ceasefires which could only allow Ukraine forces to rearm and regroup; instead, it will only settle for a lasting and permanent political solution at end to the conflict.

Of course, in Moscow's view this means official recognition of the seized eastern territories and Crimea as Russian sovereign land. President Putin himself has made clear that he will not stop the 'special military operation' until at least this is fully accomplished.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 08:20

Stocks Set To Post Fresh All Time High As Tech Euphoria Returns

Futures are fractionally higher, as they have been much of this supercharged week which pushed stocks to new all tim ehighs, amid quiet news flow this morning. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% after the index closed at a record on Thursday. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.2%, with the tech benchmark set for a 1.2% gain in the week. Momentum darling Sandisk rallied almost 6% in premarket trading after surging double digits yesterday and is now up 60% from its lows less than two weeks ago;  Mag 7 stocks mostly unchanged with MSFT and META showing some modest declines as investors continued to focus on OpenAI’s plans for a Wall Street debut. Bond yields are 1-2bp higher, led by 30y. A Reuters article reported that BOJ is eyeing September rate hike and faster pace of tightening, affirming the recent hawkish bias: OIS now sees 81% probability of a September hike (vs. ~65% last Friday). Commodities are modestly higher: oil moved 0.6% higher; gold added 0.1% this morning. US economic data calendar include July retail sales (8:30am), August preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and June business inventories (10am). No Fed speakers scheduled for the session

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Tesla +0.5%, Microsoft -0.3%, Nvidia +0.2%, Alphabet 0.0%, Apple 0.0%, Amazon -0.1%, Meta -0.1%)

• Dronemakers including AeroVironment (AVAV) are higher after the Trump administration said it is applying a 100% tariff on imports of unmanned aircraft systems and their components. AeroVironment shares are up 3%.
• Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) rises 8% after Jefferies started coverage on the semiconductor manufacturing company with a buy rating, citing the firm’s growth profile.
• Applied Materials (AMAT) falls 5% after the semiconductor capital equipment company’s estimate-topping forecast met with tepid investor reaction following the stock’s frenetic rally this year.
• ARS Pharmaceuticals (SPRY) sinks 14% after the company pushed back the timeline for the biotech to reach cash-flow breakeven to the end of 2027. The firm’s management previously expected to reach that mark by the middle of 2027.
• Capricor (CAPR) surges 100% after the drug developer said it plans to amend its biologics license application for its drug to treat a rare muscle disease and that the FDA has indicated it is willing to review this amendment. The news spurred an upgrade at Cantor.
• Gemini Space Station (GEMI) falls 6% after the crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins reported a wider-than-expected adjusted Ebitda loss for the second quarter amid crypto trading declines.
• Globant (GLOB) falls 11% after the IT-services company cut its full-year forecast. It also gave a third-quarter forecast that was weaker than the analyst consensus estimate.
• Nubank (NU) gains 10% after the Brazilian fintech reported second-quarter net income that beat the average analyst estimate and saw its 15 to 90-day non-performing loan ratio improve.
• Reddit (RDDT) jumps 10% as the social media company is set to join the S&P 500 prior to the opening of trading on Aug. 18.
• Sandisk (SNDK) rises 6%, set to extend Thursday’s 14% rally, as JPMorgan assigns an overweight rating following the firm’s investor day.
• York Space (YSS) is down 17% after the space and defense company cut the revenue outlook for the full year.

Tech shares again lifted the S&P 500 to fresh highs this month as investors piled into beaten-down semiconductor and other AI-related stocks, with second-quarter earnings exceeding already lofty expectations. After a benign consumer inflation print and producer price data this week, US retail sales numbers on Friday could provide more clues on the direction of Fed policy ahead of next month’s meeting, although according to real-time BofA card spending data, expect a big miss when the data is released at 8:30am.

And speaking of Bank of America, its CIO Michael Hartnett said the “door wide open for bulls to rip risk higher.” He cites soaring earnings, a $10 trillion wealth surge in 2026 and over $1 trillion of AI capex expected in 2027. But most notably he says AI is now so big it is the market, and policymakers simply can not allow stocks to fall as it will spark an economic crash. 

Elsewhere, the chip bubble is baaaaack: South Korea’s Kospi Index - a bellwether for retail and momentum euhoria in chip names - added over 2% Friday, bringing its weekly gain to 11% and snapping a seven-week losing streak. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both advanced more than 15% over the past five days.

“A huge amount of hyperscaler money is flowing into hardware,” said Hitoshi Asaoka, chief strategist at Asset Management One. “That is translating into extremely strong sales and profit growth for hardware companies. Investors are returning to the idea of, ‘let’s look at the earnings themselves again.’”

Meanwhile, the threat of lofty energy prices reigniting inflation remains. Brent crude jumped almost 2% on Friday, before reversing the move to trade around $87 a barrel. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised unprecedented “economic isolation” for Iran and a “one-two punch” that includes the continued blockade of the country’s ports. 

European shares hover near record highs with continued support from the artificial intelligence trade and after the region’s equity funds notched their largest inflows in six months. The Stoxx 600 is little changed as software and IT stocks rally, boosted by a report that Silver Lake is in talks to acquire Workday. HelloFresh falls to a record low after a downgrade at Barclays. Here are the biggest movers:

• European software and IT stocks post broad-based gains on Friday, with sentiment boosted by a Reuters report that Silver Lake is in talks to acquire Workday. SAP, Dassault Systemes and Nemetschek are among gainers.
• Maersk shares gain as much as 6.5% after an upgrade to hold from sell. The shipping company appears to have scope for a further guidance upgrade, and “ample room” for share buybacks over 2027-28.
• Aviva shares rise slightly, briefly reaching their highest level since May 2018, after the insurer’s first-half operating profit exceeded estimates. Analysts note the beat was supported by reserve releases, tempering the market reaction.
• Autostore shares extend a post-earnings rally after the stock was raised to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank, which cites multiple consecutive quarters of improving momentum, stronger customer engagement and a growing backlog at the warehouse automation firm.
• DFDS shares rise as much as 21%, the steepest gain since 2008, after the shipping and logistics firm raised its revenue growth outlook for the year.
• Talanx shares rise as much as 5.9%, the most in over a year, after the insurer’s second-quarter net income came in comfortably ahead of estimates and supported a lift to its guidance for the full year.
• Napatech shares rally as much as 25%, the most in over three months, after the Danish company that provides Programmable Network Interface Cards used in data centers said it has secured a follow-on production order related to a major AI-infrastructure design win secured in 2025.
• Cohort shares gain as much as 7.4%, the most since early July, after the electronic and surveillance technology solutions company announces that its German unit ELAC was awarded a contract to supply integrated sonar systems for the Polish Orka submarine program in collaboration with Saab.
• VZ Holding shares jump as much as 10% after the provider of investment advisory services beat expectations in the first half.
• HelloFresh shares fall to a record low as Barclays downgrades to underweight and assigns a Street-low price target, saying questions remain about the meal kit provider’s top line.
• EnergieKontor shares plummet as much as 18% and hit their lowest level since 2020 after the wind-energy producercut its earnings goal after markets closed yesterday, just hours after reaffirming its guidance.
• GB Group shares fall as much as 27%, their steepest drop since 2009, after the identity verification and fraud prevention company lowered its full-year revenue guidance.

Asian stocks rose, poised for their best week in two months, as the AI tech rally regains momentum on fading concerns over Federal Reserve rate hikes. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.7% Friday, extending its weekly gain to about 3%. South Korea’s tech-heavy Kospi gained for a fifth-straight session, its longest streak since mid-June, while Japanese equities also advanced. Indonesian stocks gained after an address to the nation by President Prabowo Subianto before its budget. After last month’s volatile selloff, the AI trade is getting back on track following the latest corporate results. Stocks in South Korea and Taiwan are set for their biggest weekly foreign inflow in months, a sign that global investors are returning after a historic selloff.  “Once traders start searching for yield again, they tend to gravitate back toward that AI and tech picture,” Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, told Bloomberg TV. “I think that the US earnings season went some way into dispelling some of the fears that were building up about valuations and sustainability of operating margins.” Elsewhere, Hang Seng had its biggest weekly decline in seven weeks. Vietnam fell most in Asia on financial concerns. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.2% and is on course for its largest decline since last week’s payrolls miss. The Norwegian krone is leading gains against the greenback, rising 0.5%, also helped by higher oil prices. The kiwi is also at top of the leaderboard after underperforming on Thursday. USD/JPY edges down toward 159. European stocks are little changed while futures are pointing to a fairly flat open on Wall Street.

In rates, long-end Treasuries hold losses in early US session, with yields higher by around 1-2bp and extending this week’s curve-steepening move amid similar price action in European bond markets. The US sold 30-year bonds at the highest yield in a quarter century on Thursday, underscoring the premium investors are demanding to finance the nation’s deficits. US 10-year yield near 4.65% is less than 1bp higher on the day with bunds and gilts in the sector lagging by 2.5bp and 2bp; WTI crude futures are up about 0.5%, off session highs. With front-end and belly yields edging lower, US 2s10s spread widens nearly 2bp to 52bp, widest since May 21 and near 200-DMA which has broadly held since March; 5s30s spread is more than 2bp wider near 92bp, last seen May 14. UK and German 10-year borrowing costs rise 3 bps each. IG credit new-issue slate empty so far. Three companies sold a combined $5.85 billion on Thursday, paying about 11bp in new issue concessions on deals that were 2.6 times oversubscribed. Start of next week has the potential to be relatively active.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures advance as talks around reopening the Strait of Hormuz continue to show limited progress. Brent crude futures rise 0.7% to around $87.60 a barrel and that’s hampered bonds.

US economic data calendar include July retail sales (8:30am), August preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and June business inventories (10am). No Fed speakers scheduled for the session

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• The United States on Thursday said that it could maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely and would ratchet up economic pressure on Tehran as ceasefire talks have floundered, global oil supply is dropping and regional tensions are rising. RTRS
• The US is pressing NATO allies to demonstrate support for Donald Trump’s policies, as it reviews potential troop cuts in Europe. BBG
• Ukraine has sent Russia an offer suggesting they both halt attacks ‌on civilian targets in the Black Sea, a source said, after mounting strikes on vessels and ports there raised fears over global food supplies. RTRS
• China’s auto factories are building so many cars for export that the global shipping industry can’t keep up. Specialized car carriers, essentially floating parking garages, are booked out years ahead to export cars from Chinese factories. Rates to charter ships are up 65% this year on the surging demand to move vehicles out of China. WSJ
• Tariffs latest: The US is imposing a 100% duty on some imported drones and their components, a move that may significantly affect China. Australia said the US agreed to “consider full exemption or, at the very least, no increase” to the tariffs. BBG
• The BoJ is set to raise interest rates as soon as ‌September and is considering hiking more aggressively thereafter from the current pace of roughly twice a year, said three sources familiar with its thinking. RTRS
• Japan’s efforts to prop up the yen are creating fresh opportunities as investors return to carry trades — borrowing the low-yielding currency to buy higher-returning assets. BBG
• Leading US AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic are releasing cheaper models as they fight to retain cost-conscious customers who are switching to cut-price alternatives from Chinese rivals. The price war comes as rising AI bills push companies to curb usage and seek cheaper models, helping Chinese developers including Moonshot and DeepSeek make inroads with users from Silicon Valley to Europe. FT
• OpenAI is on track to generate annualized revenue of more than $40 billion based on its current performance, people familiar said. The ChatGPT maker’s revenue has accelerated in recent months. BBG
• Fitch affirmed the US at AA+, outlook stable, while it stated that the US rating is supported by a large economy, high per capita income, dynamic business environment and exceptional financing flexibility. However, it also commented that labour demand has weakened and job creation has dropped significantly in 2026, while it expects inflation to move towards the target by year-end 2028.
• US White House deputy national security adviser Andy Baker will leave the administration in coming weeks: Axios

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed as the region only partially sustained the positive handover from Wall Street, where the S&P 500 hit a fresh record high, and the Nasdaq outperformed on tech strength, as softer PPI data further added to the case for the Fed to refrain from hiking rates in September. Nonetheless, the positive momentum began to wane overnight with little fresh major catalysts and after US President Trump signed a proclamation imposing tariffs on drones and components. ASX 200 was pressured as the strength in tech was overshadowed by losses in the heavy industries, including miners, materials, resources and industrials, while participants also digested earnings releases. Nikkei 225 gained and briefly reclaimed the 69,000 level before paring some of the advances, while participants continue to second-guess whether the BoJ will speed up the pace of rate increases. KOSPI outperformed on tech momentum, but is off earlier highs with resistance at the 7,000 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued amid a slew of earnings releases including from SMIC and JD.com, with the latter pressured despite beating on the top and bottom lines, while sentiment was also not helped by trade-related frictions with the US to impose tariffs of up to 100% on drones, which seems to be aimed at China and DJI, which holds around an 80% share of the global drone market.

Top Asian News

• PBoC keeps 7-day reverse repo operation volume at zero, while it injects CNY 349bln via overnight reverse repos.
• Taiwan raises 2026 GDP forecast to +11.05% (prev. +9.64%).
• Hong Kong revises 2026 GDP forecast to 3.5-4.5% (prev. 2.5-3.5%).

European bourses are broadly softer across the board, outside of the DAX 40 given the gains in SAP (see more below). Over in Asia, memory chip names (Kioxia +3.8%, SK Hynix +3.3%) climbed in Asia-Pac trade after Sandisk gave a positive outlook at its investor day. Sandisk said it expects revenue growth in the mid-to-high teens between 2028-30 and also plans to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. Sectors are mixed. Tech is the sector outperformer, followed by Media and Insurance. To the downside is Utilities, while Basic Resources and Health Care also underperform.

Top European News

• Reform UK leader Farage won the Clacton by-election with 22,293 votes.

FX

• DXY gradually weakened throughout the morning to a 99.70 base, despite higher energy prices (Brent +1.5%), which are typically constructive for the USD. Weakness in the Buck likely comes as participants digest the July series of data, which contained dovish components. CPI/PPI were in-line and soft, respectively, while the payrolls figure will likely give food for Fed doves. Today, USD is set to digest US Retail Sales and the UoM survey.
• USD/JPY -0.2% and continues choppy action, this time after another BoJ source said the Bank was set to raise interest rates as soon as September; this saw the pair slip 17 pips to a 159.15 base, a level which is being tested at the time of writing. Currently, markets assign a c. 80% probability of such action in September. More pertinently, Bloomberg sources on Thursday said the Takaichi government is said to support faster BoJ rate hikes. The piece also said the bank could raise rates in either September or October; the timing of the latest source potentially the reason why this JPY strength has stuck.
• Kiwi is rebounding vs the USD after losses following Thursday's soft inflation expectations survey; action which has entirely faded with the pair ~0.2% higher than pre-data. NZD/USD +0.4%, once again above all significant DMAs.
• NOK is the G10 outperformer, strength which is likely a function of oil prices despite the Norges Bank hold on Thursday raising questions over the removal of the tightening bias from the statement in September. Brent Oct’26 is firmer by 1.5%, after rising throughout the EU morning without a clear catalyst. NOK/SEK sees continues support above 1.00, while USD/NOK broke out of recent ranges

Fixed Income

• USTs continue to fall further from Thursday's peak of 109-03+, after failing to hold above the current range highs of 109-01. The 30-year auction was soft, showing a 0.4bp tail, below-average bid-to-cover and above-average dealer allocation, all pointing to weaker demand despite the considerably higher outright yield on offer. Following the auction, analysts at TD Securities said this is problematic for the Treasury as it must fund the government at more expensive levels. Looking ahead, US Retail sales is on the docket.
• Gilts opened lower and trades at the lower end of its 86.90-87.26 range, given the steady climb in energy prices. On the political front, Reform leader Farage won the Clacton by-election as expected. Following the count, More in Common's Tryl told Politico that despite that impressive raw vote total by Farage, the vote share was at the lower end of expectations, which shows that his opponents are highly motivated to turn out. Focus now turns to the outcome of the Parliamentary investigation into Farage over recent donations.
• Bunds continue to trade counter to energy prices, currently trading at the bottom end of its 124.72-125.01 range. A light docket ahead in Europe, given the summer period.
• Australia sells AUD 1bln November 2032 bonds, b/c 3.75, avg. yield 4.6868%.

Commodities

• Crude futures have been grinding higher throughout the European morning despite the lack of a clear driver. Overnight, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they will implement unprecedented measures on Iran and are conducting a maximum pressure campaign against Iran. Meanwhile, this morning, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said a possible agreement with Oman on a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz will not, by itself, mean the strategic waterway will reopen. Furthermore, UKMTO says a tanker was struck by a drone while transiting outbound through the Strait of Hormuz, possibly following comments by ADNOC stating that two of its vessels attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday.
• There have also been a couple of headlines regarding Russia/Ukraine/NATO: NATO HQ confirmed allied jets were scrambled after a drone entered Latvian airspace. Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov said an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine is not possible.
• WTI Sept and Brent Oct futures have been edging higher since European players entered the market. Brent trades towards the top end of a USD 86.20-88.60/bbl range at the time of writing whilst WTI sits towards the upper end of a USD 80.71-82.99/bbl range. Dutch TTF is firmer by almost 2% intraday and north of EUR 61.50/MWh.
• Metals are flat/mixed amid a lack of drivers and in what is seemingly a summer lull. Spot gold resides towards the middle of a USD 4,322-4,363/oz range after dipping under yesterday’s 4,343/oz low. Spot silver ekes mild gains and resides towards the top end of a USD 63.51-64.73/oz range after briefly falling under yesterday’s USD 64.22/oz low. 3M LME copper remains above USD 14k/t in a USD 14,045.20- 14,125.28/t range.
• US VP Vance said goal one is to keep oil and gasoline affordable for the US.
• China's State Planner said domestic gasoline and diesel retail price caps will be cut by CNY 230/T and CNY 220/T, respectively; effective on August 14.
• Ukrainian official said if a ceasefire is implemented in the Black Sea region, Ukraine could restore grain exports through its seaports within one month.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump signed a proclamation imposing tariffs on drones and components, which imposes 100% tariffs on certain-sized drones and a 25% tariff on smaller-sized drones. 10% tariffs will be imposed on drones from the UK and 15% tariffs on drones from the EU, Japan, Liechtenstein, South Korea, Switzerland and Taiwan. Tariffs will take effect 21 days after signing, while for components of drones that are not particularly sensitive, the tariffs will take effect 180 days after signing.
• Australian PM Albanese said he spoke with US President Trump and reviewed advancements under the AUKUS defence agreement, while he added that the AUKUS initiative continues full steam ahead. Albanese said he raised the issue of tariffs with Trump and urged him to consider full exemption, while he added that Trump would consider Australia's request.
• Brazil began analysing the reciprocity process on US tariffs, while it was notifying the US about the process and requesting that diplomatic consultations be held.

Central Banks

• Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said they have been getting a little bit better readings on inflation, which he hopes will continue and noted that a lot of inflation drivers were from tariffs, oil and things they hope to be one-time increases. Furthermore, he stated that if they can get some of that into the rearview mirror, they can get inflation heading back to 2%, and that the US economy is steady.
• The BoJ is reportedly set to raise interest rates as soon as September and also considering accelerating subsequent hikes, according to reports.
• RBA's Harper will depart from the monetary policy board, and Melinda Cilento has been named as a part-time member of the RBA board.

Geopolitics: Iran

• US VP Vance said the US has a lot of tools at its disposal for Iran.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they will implement unprecedented measures on Iran and are conducting a maximum pressure campaign against Iran, targeting its bank accounts and digital currencies worldwide, while the pressure campaign caused the collapse of the Iranian banking sector. Bessent added that measures against Iran will be a combination of economic isolation and blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, and he expects more announcements on Iran next week. Furthermore, he said they will take actions unprecedented in the history of economic isolation of a country and will prevent anything from entering or leaving Iranian ports.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said a possible agreement with Oman on a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz will not, by itself, mean the strategic waterway will reopen, Press TV reported.
• UAE's ADNOC said two of its vessels attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. Following this, UKMTO said a tanker was struck by a drone while transiting outbound through the Strait of Hormuz.
• US CENTCOM commander and Saudi Crown Prince MBS discuss mutual defence cooperation and efforts to de-escalate regional tensions, according to Saudi State News Agency.
• US President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner is to visit Israel next week for consultations on the situation in Gaza, according to Axios
• Airstrikes hit separatist militant group in Erbil, Iraq, according to Tehran Times.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov said an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine is not possible, IFX reported.
• Drones hit area around Russian Baltic seaport of Ust-Luga, according to the regional governor.
• Latvia issued an air threat alert in areas bordering Russia and Belarus, while NATO fighter jets shot down a drone over northeastern Latvia. It was also reported that Finland restricted aviation and maritime traffic in eastern Gulf of Finland.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korea condemned US-South Korean military drills and said the military exercises are more provocative than last year, while it added that US-Japan-South Korea military cooperation is turning into a nuclear alliance. Furthermore, North Korea vowed to respond to a new level of threat with a new level of deterrent and will continue to expand nuclear deterrence, according to KCNA.
• Japanese Regional Coast Guard said four Chinese ships intruded into Japanese territorial waters, Kyodo reported.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Jul Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: United States Jul Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.2%
• 10:00 am: United States Aug P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 55, prior 55.2

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Right. I’m about to go off on holiday to find somewhere cooler after what was the 5th hottest day ever in the UK yesterday. I say 5th hottest but that is recorded history.  Apparently the Early Eocene Epoch some 55 million years ago was the last time these sorts of temperatures were the norm in the UK. Admittedly the country was nearer the Mediterranean then! For the next couple of weeks you'll mostly find me bathing in an Alpine lake or shouting at my children. Henry and Peter will be holding the fort while I'm gone. See you on the other side.
Before I disappear in search of snow and ice, markets have generally been enjoying the heat. Over the last 24 hours, investors have continued to dial back the chances of a Fed rate hike, sending the S&P 500 (+0.65%) to fresh highs. The biggest catalyst was a downside surprise in the US PPI inflation print, while lower oil prices gave the doves an extra tailwind, with Brent crude (-2.15%) finally snapping a six-day winning streak. As a result, pricing for a September Fed hike fell to just 35% by the close, down from above 50% on the morning of Wednesday’s CPI release, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (-5.1bps) also moved sharply lower as markets embraced the more dovish outlook.

That PPI release set the tone for the day, as it cemented the view after Wednesday’s CPI that the Fed didn’t need to rush into rate hikes. The data showed monthly headline PPI unchanged in July (vs. +0.2% expected), which meant the year-on-year reading fell back to +4.7% (vs. +4.9% expected). So the release supported the view that the energy shock was fading, and the Fed wouldn’t need to react next month. As ever, there was also some focus on the categories that feed into PCE inflation, which is the Fed’s preferred measure. But those were generally mixed and offset each other, with strength in portfolio management (+6.5%) offset by weakness in other categories like airfares (-3.4%). In net terms, the PPI details added a one basis point to our US economists’ estimate for July core PCE inflation. 

The downside PPI surprise led to an immediate reaction in pricing for the next Fed meeting. For instance, the probability of a September hike had been at 40% right before the release, but was down to 35% by the close. Indeed, the last time a hike by September was considered that remote was back in June, before Warsh’s first press conference was unexpectedly hawkish. That said, there was a reluctance to go much lower on market pricing given we’ve still got the August jobs report and CPI report before the next FOMC meeting. And looking further out, futures are now pricing in a 92% chance of a hike by the December meeting, also the first time since June that this has been less than fully priced.

We did hear from a few Fed speakers as well, but there weren’t really any surprises from a market point of view. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said that “I think we need to act now”, but she’d already dissented for a rate hike in July, so that wasn’t a surprise. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Barkin (a non-voter this year) was more dovish, pointing out that much of today’s high inflation “has come from shocks, which should pass”.  

This backdrop of softer inflation and more dovish rates pricing led to a big rally for US Treasuries yesterday. In fact, the 10yr Treasury yield (-5.1bps) fell to 4.64%, whilst the rate-sensitive 2yr yield (-5.9bps) fell to 4.14%, its lowest level in almost a month. And the 30yr yield declined by -4.5bps, though we did see the highest yield at a US Treasury auction since 2001 as $25bn of 30yr bonds were issued at 5.216%. In Asia this morning US yields are back up a basis point across the curve.

The dovish momentum received further help yesterday from lower oil prices, which finally ended their run of gains over the last week. It wasn’t a huge fall, but Brent crude was down -2.15% by the close to $87.07/bbl, ending a run of 6 consecutive daily gains. Brent did rise from its intraday low of $85.85/bbl after the Houthi-run Saba news agency reported that the Houthis were targeting the Aramco refinery in the Jizan region. And earlier on in the session, Iran’s state-run IRIB cited a joint military command spokesman, who said that no ship could safely transit the Strait of Hormuz without approval. But overall, in the absence of material news, some of recent run up in geopolitical risk premium was taken out of oil markets, not least given the sizeable recent shipping via Hormuz by shuttle transfers and ships operating without transponders. Brent is flat this morning.  

Beyond the crude oil moves, it’s worth noting the continued tightness in refined product markets. Crack spreads in the US and Europe remain close to the highs reached in late July. So while crude oil prices are down by over 25% from their spring peak, the decline in refined product prices has been more modest. For perspective, while Brent crude is now +20% above pre-Iran war levels, US wholesale gasoline prices are about +50% higher and European diesel prices are about +60% higher. Just ahead of filling our car before the 14-hour drive to the Alps!

Whilst the PPI reading and lower oil prices were the main market drivers yesterday, we also had the US weekly initial jobless claims. They were a bit higher than expected, rising to 209k in the week ending August 8 (vs. 202k expected), so again that cemented the view that the Fed could stay on hold at the next meeting. And in turn, all this dovish newsflow benefited US equities, with the S&P 500 (+0.65%) at another record. This was aided by a recovery for the Magnificent 7 (+1.20%) as well as tech stocks more broadly as the NASDAQ (+0.81%) and the Philly semiconductor index (+0.46%) also advanced. But it was a positive day more broadly with the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+0.74%) outperforming and hitting a new high as well.  

Earlier in Europe, markets hadn’t been quite as resilient, with the STOXX 600 (-0.04%) edging lower for a second consecutive session. In part, that reflected Europe’s smaller exposure to tech, and also that ECB pricing didn’t move as much as Fed pricing did. Indeed, investors continue to price a September rate hike as a 90% chance for the ECB. So yields saw a comparatively smaller fall in Europe than the US, with those on 10yr bunds (-2.9bps), OATs (-3.5bps) and BTPs (-4.8bps) ending the day lower. UK gilts were a particular underperformer, with the 10yr yield only down -1.9bps after the monthly GDP print surprised on the upside in June, unexpectedly rising by +0.3% (vs. -0.1% expected).  

In Asia this morning, the KOSPI (+1.99%) continues its recent comeback, extending its rally to a fifth straight session, with the Nikkei (+0.56%) also firm. In contrast, Hong Kong's Hang Seng (-0.93%) and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 (-1.01%) are under pressure, while mainland Chinese benchmarks are seeing modest declines, with the CSI 300 (-0.12%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.21%) edging lower. S&P 500 futures are flat with the Nasdaq equivalent -0.15%. European futures are back up a quarter to half a percent as I type.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include US retail sales for July, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for August. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, there’s also the second estimate of Q2 GDP.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 08:04

Unusual Machines Jumps After Trump Slaps 100% Drone Tariff In "Hard Decoupling" From China

Shares of drone makers AeroVironment and Aevex, and "pure-play" drone-parts company Unusual Machines, are higher in premarket trading Thursday after the Trump administration signed a proclamation imposing tariffs of as much as 100% on imported drones and components, part of a broader effort to decouple the nation's drone supply chain from China.

Drones weighing more than 55 pounds, in other words, Group 3 drones, equipped with thermal imaging and certain sensitive components will face the top rate. Smaller, less-capable drones (< Group 3) and other parts will be subject to a 25% duty. Qualifying imports from the European Union and several US trading partners will face a 15% levy, while UK products will be taxed at 10%.

"The tariffs will take effect 21 days after signing. For components of drones that are not particularly sensitive, the tariffs will take effect 180 days after signing," the White House wrote in a fact sheet describing the new drone tariffs.

"In the long term, we're probably slipping towards an outcome of a hard decoupling for at least certain types of drones," said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics, who Bloomberg quoted. "I think this is part of a broader pattern in which both the US and China uphold their basic trade agreement but continue to take relatively low-grade actions against each other."

Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis, said these drone tariffs are all "about reducing dependence on China for advanced drones and, importantly, components, as previous FCC barriers did not cover imports of grandfathered models and many drone components."

AeroVironment and Aevex were marginally higher in premarket trading. However, Unusual Machines, which we've labeled a "pure-play" NDAA-compliant drone-component manufacturer...

... jumped 13% and continues to move higher since our initial coverage began on July 23 (+54%). 

Related

• This American Drone-Motor Company Is Positioned For "Massive Procurement Tailwind"
• Wall Street Zeroes In On This "Pure-Play" US Attack Drone Company

In the previous report, we focused on AeroVironment, Ondas, Red Cat, AEVEX, Redwire, Insitu and Teledyne FLIR. Private companies covered included Anduril, Skydio, Shield AI, Quantum Systems, Performance Drone Works, DZYNE, Firestorm Labs, and Neros.

Read the full report on how to profit from the "Asymmetric Warfare Boom." 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 07:45

Saudi Oil Fleet Increasingly Going 'Dark' Due To Houthi Blockade

Via The Cradle

Yemen's maritime blockade on Saudi shipping has pushed the kingdom’s crude exports off the radar in the Red Sea, with tankers forced to turn off their tracking signals to avoid attack and every recent cargo loaded at Yanbu sailing "dark," Reuters reported on Wednesday.

Saudi export volumes can no longer be independently verified as a result of the increased invisibility, with ship-tracking firms issuing conflicting estimates of the same shipments, figures the International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC, and traders use to gauge world supply and forecast the market. 

via AFP

Three firms tracking the same week beginning August 3 reached three different conclusions.

Vortexa measured a modest decline at Yanbu, to 2.38 million barrels per day (bpd) from 2.71 million, while Kpler reported a collapse to 1.78 million bpd from 4.04 million, and AXSMarine recorded a rise, to 850,000 bpd from about 420,000. 

Vortexa analyst George Morris said no Yanbu cargo lifted last week had its Automatic Identification System (AIS) switched on. 

"Last week Yanbu liftings were all conducted dark. We're not seeing any loadings with Automatic Identification System (AIS) on at the moment," he said. 

Kpler analyst Nhway Khin Soe said about 70 percent of loadings along the Saudi west coast were dark in recent weeks, and that every Yanbu cargo loaded since 23 July involved a vessel without continuous AIS coverage. 

An average of 32 vessels per day passed through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait last week, according to Kpler data. That is down from roughly 50 a day before Ansarallah announced the blockade.

Saudi oil is meanwhile moving north instead, reaching the Mediterranean either through the Suez Canal or along Egypt's SUMED Pipeline, which runs overland from the Red Sea terminal of Ain Sokhna to Sidi Kerir on the coast.

Satellite imagery reviewed by independent maritime data analyst Phileeppos in a post on X points to a far steeper fall, with loading activity at Saudi Arabia's Red Sea terminals down by roughly half since the Yemeni blockade took effect on 20 July.

Tankers at the King Fahd and Muajjiz terminals were estimated to be holding an average of 10 million barrels per satellite pass beforehand, against around 5 million after.

This comes as Turkey confirmed its entry into a Saudi-led maritime coalition formed to protect shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Turkish Ministry of National Defense announced in a recent statement.

The 13-country alliance, headquartered in Riyadh, was announced last month after the Ansarallah-led Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) imposed its blockade on shipments already diverted into the Red Sea by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

One fleet of Saudi VLCCs is going around the Cape of Good hope to avoid the Houthis. Nearly All Saudi tankers in the red sea have gone dark and are moving without AIS.
Meanwhile over 12+ empty Saudi tankers are headed towards sea of Oman/UAE ports for possible crossing. https://t.co/mgCelwEBG2 pic.twitter.com/0MGARl9DoS

— Ali (@MerruX) August 12, 2026

The YAF has described the measure as a “blockade for blockade” strategy, answering more than a decade of blockade and war waged against Yemen by the kingdom.

Ankara's participation deepens a trilateral defense pact signed in Mecca last week, committing Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan to collective security.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 07:20

Only 3% Of Americans Trust AI "A Great Deal" With Their Money - But One In Five Are Using It Anyway

A new Gallup survey finds a wide gap between the financial advice Americans say they trust and the advice they actually take.

Just 3% of Americans say they have "a great deal" of confidence in artificial intelligence to help manage their money - while about 30% express "a great deal" or "some" confidence. Moreover, roughly one in five people who sought financial advice in the past year used AI to get it.

The poll, conducted March 20 - April 6, sampled 5,075 U.S. adults aged 21 and older using Gallup's probability-based panel. The survey was run in partnership with Edward Jones - a brokerage that employs roughly 19,000 financial advisors, and whose interests are not entirely disinterested in the result.

Meanwhile, about 80% of adults have at least some confidence in traditional financial advisers. Only about one-third of those who sought advice actually consulted one. Far more - 73% - relied on their own online research.

Most adults sought guidance from at least one source over the past year. Beyond internet searches, advisers and AI, 35% turned to a parent, sibling or other relative; 26% consulted news or social media; about one in five went to friends, authors, speakers or influencers; and smaller shares used employers, retirement-plan providers, robo-advisers or teachers.

The generational split

Roughly a quarter of Gen Z and millennial respondents who sought advice used AI, against 16% of Gen Xers and 7% of baby boomers.

The professional-adviser numbers run precisely the other way: 14% of Gen Z, 21% of millennials, 34% of Gen X, and 55% of baby boomers.

Cost is the obvious explanation. Online research, family input and AI tools are free or close to it. Hiring an adviser is not.

What the experts say

Taha Choukhmane, an associate professor at MIT's Sloan School of Management, told the Associated Press he recommends treating AI as a starting point rather than a final authority. "I would encourage people to use AI to explain and define," he said - for example, to clarify what the stock market is, or the difference between a mutual fund and an index fund. He also suggests asking AI to supply references so users can verify what they are told.

Certified financial planner Bobbi Rebell of Financial Wellness Strategies pointed to a legal distinction that has no technical equivalent. Professional advisers often carry fiduciary responsibility - a legal obligation to act in the client's best interest.

"There's no AI that is a fiduciary," she told AP. "It doesn't really know your life; it's not asking you all the questions."

Whatever the source, the decisions remain the individual's responsibility - and so do the losses.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 06:55

English Village Will Have Six Migrant Men To Every Woman

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

A quiet North Yorkshire village of roughly 600 people is set to be flooded with around 1,200 single adult male asylum seekers at the nearby disused RAF Linton-on-Ouse base. Local women would be outnumbered six to one.

Labour MP Rachael Maskell has raised the alarm over the plan, which forms part of the government's wider push to move roughly 3,750 people into three former military sites near villages as it tries to empty asylum hotels.

The base sits beside a primary school and nursery, has only four buses a day into York, and already faces severe shortages of water, sewage capacity and electricity. Maskell has written to border security and asylum minister Anna Turley and is due to meet Home Office officials this month.

Women 'to be outnumbered six to one' after Labour floods illegal migrants onto tiny village's doorstephttps://t.co/s5yXOP9cY8

— GB News (@GBNEWS) August 13, 2026

"It's just the wrong site," Maskell said. "The last government realised that, once they got into the detail. All we're saying to this Government is that it's really important that they recognise that too, because the site is in a worse state now than it was when the Government last looked at this."

Similar plans for Linton-on-Ouse were abandoned in 2022 after fierce local opposition. Now they are back under active consideration. Local Tory councillor Malcolm Taylor captured the mood of residents who moved there for a quiet life: "They've moved there for the peace, tranquillity and quality of life. This hand grenade has been thrown in."

Professor Olga Matthias of the Linton Action Group called the village "categorically the wrong place for so many reasons."

'That doesn't add up at all with what the left have been telling us.'

'It's the hypocrisy.'

Mark Littlewood and Nina Myskow discuss a Labour MP who has warned that a plan to move more than 1,000 asylum seekers next to a small Yorkshire village. pic.twitter.com/onBRdNHwyF

— GB News (@GBNEWS) August 12, 2026

This is not an isolated case. It follows the same pattern seen in the tiny Oxfordshire village of Piddington, population around 350-400, which faces plans for 1,250 single adult male asylum seekers at a former Ministry of Defence depot right next to a children's playing field.

Residents held a symbolic independence referendum in which 96 percent voted to leave the United Kingdom in protest. Children wrote letters pleading with the Prime Minister not to destroy the only home they have ever known. Parish council chairman Tim McNally has repeatedly warned that the scale is neither fair, safe nor responsible.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has responded by doubling down. He insists that "all parts of the country need to play their part" and that middle-class and leafy areas can no longer be shielded while poorer communities carry the load.

Borders minister Anna Turley has defended the approach as creating a "more fair and equitable system," even while acknowledging that concentrating arrivals in deprived areas previously fuelled "civil unrest."

The same government that lectures about fairness is also quietly imposing itself on other quiet rural communities. In the tiny Welsh seaside village of Gronant, population around 1,600, residents discovered that their former village hall - converted into 15 new-build homes they expected to go to local families or the open market - had been handed over to asylum seekers.

Thirteen of the fifteen units were taken by Home Office contractor Clearsprings. Blacked-out minibuses arrived without warning. Locals described it as pure betrayal. One resident, Kerrie Cox, said nobody was told about the arrivals. Another called it an "absolute betrayal."

These placements keep following the same template. Single adult men, overwhelmingly of fighting age, are being directed into the most culturally alien, high-trust, low-density English and Welsh villages imaginable - places defined by quiet streets, children's parks, limited public transport, and a long-standing sense of safety.

The contrast could scarcely be sharper. It repeatedly seems like an intentional choice designed to generate the maximum possible friction and cultural upheaval. They could not possibly find locations more foreign to the backgrounds of many of these arrivals.

Andy Burnham will 'push ahead with plans to move asylum seekers to middle-class areas despite higher cost to taxpayers' https://t.co/jZhK27PwgJ

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) August 13, 2026

The government claims the military sites will keep people "contained." In practice, residents are free to come and go. Infrastructure is inadequate. Policing is already stretched thin in these rural areas. Women and girls who once walked freely after dark now face the prospect of living in communities where adult men from very different cultural norms suddenly outnumber them by orders of magnitude.

This is the logical endpoint of a policy that refuses to stop the boats while insisting every corner of the country must absorb the consequences. Closing hotels and shifting people into former barracks or new-build village homes does not reduce the pull factor. It upgrades the destination.

The result is the steady erosion of the very places that once defined the character of rural Britain - one quiet village at a time.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 06:30

Is AI Good For The US Labor Market And Bad For Europe's?

France's unemployment rate has been climbing steadily over the past eighteen months to the highest level in five years, with unemployment increasing across all age groups.

The US, by contrast, has stayed essentially flat and near multi-decade lows over the past few years.

While there are multiple factors driving both country's economic progress (or lack of it), Apollo's Chief Economist, Torsten Slok, recently noted that Europe and the US face the same AI displacement.

But, only the US gets what offsets it:

• the startup formation,

• the CapEx, and

• the hiring that comes from building the technology rather than only absorbing it.

The widening unemployment gap between France and the US is starting to look like the price of being on the wrong side of that asymmetry.

Underestimating AI Disruption?

Slok also points out that consensus earnings expectations still imply remarkably little disruption from AI.

Of more than 200 publicly traded software and white-collar services companies we track, only 10 are currently expected to experience both revenue and EBITDA declines over the next two years.

That suggests markets may be pricing in the possibility of AI disruption without yet fully incorporating its potential impact on earnings and margins.

Apollo sees that AI pressure as manifesting through three channels:

1. direct replacement, where AI performs the same task at a lower cost;

2. labor displacement, where AI reduces the number of employees, contractors or users supporting a business model; and

3. execution risk, where AI-native competitors innovate faster and take market share.

As adoption accelerates, these are the channels we are watching for signs that AI disruption is beginning to show up in fundamentals.

Read more in Apollo's 2026 Midyear Credit Outlook.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 05:45

The Delusional Premises Of Woke Greens

Authored by Edward Ring via American Greatness,

While the burgeoning democratic socialist movement is getting a lot of attention in advance of the 2026 midterm elections, a parallel dimension of wokeism quietly continues to advance. For now, the Trump administration has attenuated its most extreme threats, but its institutional support is unwavering, and its slow progress is unrelenting. The woke greens are pursuing their own long march.

The agenda of the woke greens is synergistic with democratic socialism. Its currency is fear and resentment. The Earth is dying; colonialist capitalism is to blame. Extraordinary measures are called for. Restrict growth, redistribute wealth. Sound familiar? Environmentalist extremism and socialism are two peas in a pod. But both are built on lies. Nothing has delivered more wealth and freedom to more people than authentic capitalism. Not crony, casino, or monopoly capitalism, but capitalism that rewards hard work, protects private property, and preserves the incentives that harness human nature and nurture human creativity.

In contrast to capitalism, socialism is a nightmare that turns out the lights in nation after nation. The historical evidence is overwhelming. Strive to improve the mechanics of capitalism, and reject socialist demagoguery.

But there’s a catch. The planet is burning up. Ecosystems are in collapse. Therefore, we have no choice; we must redistribute wealth so everyone can consume less. Without radical measures, our civilization is unsustainable. This argument sounds compelling. But it is also built on lies that must be challenged.

Here are some of the flawed, false premises for the woke greens.

We face a climate emergency.

To anyone who has studied both sides of the debate, this is a manipulative shibboleth. From a more balanced perspective, even if there is an emergency, the opportunistic profiteering of the climate industry is obvious, and “climate” is revealed all too often as just a marketing ploy to garner mandates and subsidies for projects that would otherwise never survive an honest cost-benefit analysis.

There are nearly infinite scientifically valid reasons that explain why the planet is not experiencing an actual climate crisis, and, thanks to the failure of the climate industry to completely silence the skeptics, it’s become easier than ever to study these reasons. A good place to start is with the 2021 book “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters” by Steven E. Koonin. Another continuously updated source of climate realism comes from the CO2 Coalition, a network of scientists committed to debunking the alarmist narrative. There’s much more. Read the classic “Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide to Global Warming,” by economist Bjorn Lomborg, or the more recent “Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All” by Michael Shellenberger.

The inconvenient truth for woke greens is that the climate alarm narrative, which is the foundation of their entire subsequent agenda, is not true. But the truth has to contend with a multitrillion-dollar industry that relies on the useful fear and resentment that a “climate emergency” imparts to millions of people. It is used to silence debate over the efficacy of every one of the following destructive delusions. In no particular order, here are some of them.

Floating offshore wind provides sustainable electricity.

This is a preposterous lie. Floating offshore wind is the most expensive source of electricity on Earth. It has never been deployed successfully at scale. It is a resource hog, it wreaks environmental havoc, and installations are short-lived in the maritime environment. The heavily subsidized corporations that buy politicians and profit from this monstrous scam would not exist in a competitive market.

Biofuel is a carbon-neutral, sustainable fuel.

Another preposterous lie. There are nearly 450,000 square miles of biofuel plantations worldwide, and altogether they only supply five percent of total demand for liquid transportation fuel. These are pesticide-, herbicide-, and fertilizer-drenched monocultures that have replaced rainforests throughout the tropics. If you replaced all the arable farmland on Earth with these abominations, that would still only provide 60 percent of global demand for transportation fuel, which in turn represents only 30 percent of total demand for energy in the world. Is this sustainable?

Dams must be demolished.

While there is controversy over some dams—Turkey has new dams that can deny water to Iraq and Syria, and Ethiopia has built one that can cut off water to Egypt—in general, we need dams for flood control, navigation, irrigation, and hydroelectric power. There are ways to mitigate the impact of dams on migrating fish, and there are many instances of how dams can help the environments they impact. But no matter. According to the woke greens, they must all be demolished.

The only way to manage forests is to leave them completely alone.

This is nonsense. Forests that are managed responsibly with sustainable logging, mechanical thinning, controlled burns, and livestock grazing are far healthier. In prehistory, fires naturally and routinely thinned forests, which maintained their health by preventing an unhealthy density of trees and shrubs. Now that we put out forest fires, we must compensate by managing the resulting growth. All over the United States we are seeing superfires that are not the result of climate change but a consequence of environmentalists chasing out the loggers while not permitting any other method of thinning.

We must reintroduce wild animals wherever they once roamed.

A related premise of the woke greens is that we must not only save endangered species but also reintroduce them throughout their ancient range. Now we have mountain lions roaming the Los Angeles suburbs and wolf packs spreading slowly throughout the western United States, and there’s even talk of bringing the grizzly bear back to California. Because, to quote a woke green, “It’s their land.” No. It isn’t. It’s appropriate to take reasonable steps to preserve wildlife and wilderness areas, but allowing dangerous predator species that already have stable populations to expand their range is explicitly anti-human. We have to responsibly manage wildlife populations just as we have to responsibly manage forests. That means we have to set and enforce limits on their range.

People should live in densely populated cities.

The idea here is that someone living in a one-bedroom apartment in a high-rise in a neighborhood with 30,000 people per square mile is more “sustainable” than people living in detached homes with their own yards. The inhumanity of this is stunning, but it’s also just false. Urbanized areas on Earth (that’s cities and towns) today only total around 200,000 square miles, and yet 81 percent of the world population lives in them. We have 41 million square miles of habitable land on Earth. If 10 billion people lived in homes on quarter-acre lots, four per household, with an equal amount of land set aside for roads, parks, schools, and commercial and industrial areas, it would use up less than 2 million square miles of that land, less than five percent of habitable land.

There are too many people for the planet’s resources to sustain.

This is absolutely false. The crisis we face in the world is too few people. Birthrates are collapsing everywhere on the planet, with the exception of significant parts of the Islamic world and sub-Saharan Africa—which explains why migrants from those nations are swarming into any developed nations that will admit them. The challenge for humanity is to convince people who have attained the liberty and prosperity to live lives beyond bare subsistence to still decide to have children. The human population is projected, at most, to peak at 10 billion by around 2050. After that, unless dramatic cultural trends are reversed, it will decline precipitously.

Rationing energy, water, land, and other resources is necessary to save the planet.

The irony here is that the “renewables” touted by the woke greens as the sustainable solution to environmental challenges are the biggest resource hogs of all. But all historical evidence demonstrates that as long as people have freedom to innovate, for every dwindling resource, something new replaces it. Humanity has never before stood at the threshold of as many new technological breakthroughs as we have right now. The only thing that stops us from achieving per capita abundance at higher levels than ever is authoritarian corruption, and among the biggest enablers of that are the woke greens.

These false premises only scratch the surface of how woke greens and their favored mantra, the “climate emergency,” are transforming global politics, especially in Western nations, and not for the better. Accompanying the danger the continued dominance of these false premises poses to our freedom and prosperity is great irony. For those who have concluded these premises are false, there is less willingness to recognize new so-called green technologies that nonetheless make economic sense and merit further development. And for those who are fixated on the false premise of a climate emergency, there is less ability to recognize and address genuine threats to the environment, of which there are many.

Climate alarmism has taken on a momentum detached from reality. For tens of thousands of bureaucrats and politicians in the U.S., accepting it is simply the path of least resistance. But just as all elements of radical woke ideology must be challenged and overcome, so too must the woke green movement.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 05:00

"Skies Are Changing": Northrop Grumman Unveils Chain Gun To Defend Critical Infrastructure From Drone Swarm Attacks

Our view of the missing air-defense layer around data centers and other critical infrastructure emerged in late January, roughly one month before the US-Iran conflict, when we published "Explosion in AI Data Center Buildouts Will Demand Next-Gen Counter-Drone Security."

That theme was validated shortly after the war began, when Iran targeted multiple data centers with Shahed-series one-way attack drones, which generally fall within the Group 3 category. The strikes marked one of the clearest demonstrations of how low-cost, long-range drones could threaten the physical infrastructure underpinning the AI economy.

The conflict has fundamentally changed the threat assessment surrounding high-value civilian assets and has become a matter of general consensus among military leaders and politicians, as well as the military-industrial complex and many defense startups.

We just happened to be one month ahead of that shift in consensus.

Now, defense giant Northrop Grumman has unveiled Raid Hunter, a 50mm gun-based air-defense system designed to protect not only military bases but also critical infrastructure from drone swarms, cruise missiles and other aerial threats.

The skies are changing. Defending against one threat isn’t enough anymore. Our Raid Hunter™ is built to meet the challenge with precision-guided gunfire and the speed needed to help protect what’s critical. pic.twitter.com/Meuqyg04oY

— Northrop Grumman (@northropgrumman) August 11, 2026

Raid Hunter combines the company's Chain Gun technology with precision-guided 50mm ammunition and a networked battle-management controller. Northrop said the high rate of fire, deep magazine and rapid reload capability offer a more economical response than launching million-dollar interceptor missiles at $20,000 drones.

Highlights of the new kinetic interceptor:

• Raid Hunter combines proven Chain Gun technology, precision-guided 50mm ammunition and a networked, interoperable system controller to deliver powerful protection against high-volume, mixed-threat aerial raids. It is designed to defeat a range of aerial threats, including high-priority cruise missile threats, unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and other advanced threats.
• Raid Hunter's guided 50mm ammunition, combined with a high-rate-of-fire Chain Gun, delivers lethal, cost-considerate engagement with deep magazines and fast reloads, tackling the economic challenge of massed swarming threats.
• Raid Hunter is built to deploy with speed and flexibility through a modular design for rapid transportation on the C-130, with future vehicle-mounted and container-based variants planned.
• Raid Hunter is the latest product of Northrop Grumman's continued investment in advanced counter-UAS and air-defense technologies designed to meet evolving operational requirements and emerging battlefield threats.
• As part of the company's C-UAS integrated air- and missile-defense portfolio, the system supports layered defense architectures to protect critical assets across a range of operations.

The big challenge now shifts to series production capable of meeting the soaring demand from bases, data centers, refineries, power plants, substations, and you name it... 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 04:15

Decommissioning Spending In UK North Sea Hits Record High

Authored by Michael Kern via OilPrice.com,

Decommissioning remained a major activity across the UK North Sea in 2025, with industry spending hitting a record-high of £2.6 billion, or $3.5 billion, the North Sea industry regulator said in a report on Thursday.

Well-decommissioning remains the single largest component of forecast decommissioning expenditure on the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS), accounting for around half of expected costs to 2032, the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) noted in its annual decommissioning cost and performance update.

The UK North Sea has a backlog of about 500 wells awaiting decommissioning and final abandonment, which means operators need to speed up work on well closures and abandonment, the watchdog said.

Last year, operators in the UK North Sea spent about £1.3 billion, or $1.75 billion, on well decommissioning activity only, with work undertaken on more than 250 wells and over 100 reaching final abandonment status.

“While this represents an increase in activity, a backlog of approximately 500 wells awaiting final abandonment remains,” the NSTA said.

“With more than 1,000 additional wells forecast to be decommissioned over the next five years, activity levels will need to increase significantly if industry is to meet regulatory expectations and provide the certainty of work needed to attract and retain critical supply chain resources.”

Nearly half of all spending on decommissioning in the UKCS is expected to be made by 2032, in what has been dubbed the ‘decade of decommissioning’ by the regulator.

Moreover, decommissioning expenditure is forecast to overtake capital expenditure (capex) from 2029 onwards as the UK North Sea matures and as few new oil and gas projects have been given the green light in recent years.

In what could be a relief for the North Sea offshore oil and gas industry, the UK’s new Labour Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, is expected to support some new projects, unlike his predecessor, Sir Keir Starmer, who sought to permanently ban new drilling.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 03:30

Where Child Poverty Is Highest (And Lowest) In The OECD

Child poverty rates vary widely across OECD economies, ranging from less than 5% in Finland to nearly 30% in Costa Rica.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Melissa Garside, ranks OECD countries by the share of children ages 0–17 living below the poverty line in 2023. The poverty line is defined as half the median household income of the total population, meaning the measure is relative to living standards within each country. As a result, countries with the same poverty rate can differ in the absolute income levels of households classified as poor.

The data for this visualization comes from the OECD Income Distribution Database. It presents 2023 data, the latest available as of August 2026, covering OECD member countries as well as Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania, which are currently in the accession process.

Costa Rica Has Highest Child Poverty Rate in OECD

Costa Rica stood well above the rest of the ranking. Its 29.6% child poverty rate was 6.4 percentage points higher than Israel’s, the next-highest country at 23.2%.

High living costs and a large informal labor market are among the factors that can leave households with children particularly vulnerable to poverty.

RankCountryLiving Below the Poverty Line
(%, Ages 0-17) 1🇨🇷 Costa Rica29.6 2🇮🇱 Israel23.2 3🇪🇸 Spain21.5 4🇺🇸 United States21.1 5🇧🇬 Bulgaria19.1 6🇷🇴 Romania17.7 7🇬🇧 UK15.8 8🇮🇹 Italy14.5 9🇨🇦 Canada14.0 10🇱🇺 Luxembourg13.5 11🇱🇹 Lithuania12.8 12🇸🇰 Slovakia12.8 13🇵🇹 Portugal12.5 14🇭🇷 Croatia12.3 15🇬🇷 Greece12.3 16🇫🇷 France12.0 17🇭🇺 Hungary11.3 18🇱🇻 Latvia10.0 19🇦🇹 Austria9.8 20🇩🇪 Germany9.1 21🇨🇭 Switzerland9.1 22🇨🇿 Czechia8.8 23🇰🇷 South Korea8.5 24🇸🇪 Sweden8.4 25🇳🇱 Netherlands8.4 26🇪🇪 Estonia8.2 27🇧🇪 Belgium7.9 28🇵🇱 Poland7.8 29🇳🇴 Norway6.9 30🇮🇪 Ireland6.8 31🇸🇮 Slovenia6.2 32🇫🇮 Finland4.6

The child poverty rate in Israel, one of the OECD countries with the youngest populations, is highly concentrated among two groups: Ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) Jews and Israeli Arabs. Both groups have child poverty rates of nearly 50%.

One in Five American Children Live in Poverty

The United States had the fourth-highest child poverty rate among OECD countries at 21.1%, just behind Spain at 21.5%.

Despite the country’s high overall wealth, roughly one in five U.S. children lived in households with incomes below half the national median. This illustrates the distinction between national wealth and how income is distributed among households with children.

The number of households living in poverty also varies significantly by state.

Northern Europe Has Some of the Lowest Child Poverty Rates

At the other end of the scale, Finland had the lowest child poverty rate at 4.6%, followed by Slovenia at 6.2%, Ireland at 6.8%, and Norway at 6.9%.

The difference between the extremes is substantial: Costa Rica’s child poverty rate was more than six times Finland’s. Four countries in the ranking had rates above 20%, while 10 had rates below 9%.

Because the OECD measure is relative to each country’s median income, these differences reflect how children fare within their own national income distribution rather than differences in absolute living standards between countries.

If you found this topic interesting, read People With Dependent Children Face Higher Poverty on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 02:45

The Great Decline Of Britain

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Britain's streets are rotting in plain sight. Road signs coated in years of grime, pavements choked with weeds, blocked drains, overflowing bins and potholes have become everyday features of life in what was once a first-world country.

Local authorities, funded by rising council tax, routinely fail to deliver the most basic maintenance. Ordinary people - including schoolchildren - are now having to do the job themselves.

All across the length and breadth of the country, from London squares to provincial roads, citizens are cleaning signs, restoring bins and clearing litter because the people paid to do it will not.

Four images that are commonplace across Britain:

??Rubbish everywhere.
??Weeds growing on pavements
??1 million potholes
??Blocked road drains

We are paying increased council tax and are not getting even the basics of infrastructure maintenance. The decay is everywhere. pic.twitter.com/ECM6Wd81Wl

— James Melville ? (@JamesMelville) July 22, 2026

The pattern is unmistakable: a country in visible decline, where the basics are abandoned while public money flows to ideologically driven schemes.

So many people are saying the same thing. The decay across Britain (especially since the Covid era) is noticeable almost everywhere. Weeds growing on pavements. Filthy streets and signposts. Potholes strewn everywhere. Overflowing rubbish bins. Dirty buildings. Blocked road... pic.twitter.com/V5D4wMKQ4K

— James Melville ? (@JamesMelville) August 4, 2026

James Melville has documented the decay repeatedly. Rubbish everywhere, weeds forcing their way through pavements, endless potholes, blocked road drains and filthy signposts appear in image after image. He notes that people are paying higher taxes yet receiving less, with local councils failing on core infrastructure.

Britain is decaying. Blocked road drains. Potholes. Rubbish strewn streets. Dirty buildings. Road signs covered in muck. We are paying increased taxes but local and national governments and authorities aren't doing the basics.
It's time for a Great British Clean Up. pic.twitter.com/i26ONqCS7Y

— James Melville ? (@JamesMelville) August 11, 2026

Another recent video shows conditions that simply do not belong in a first-world nation, asking whether the decline is reversible.

First World countries don't look like this. Is this decline reversible...? pic.twitter.com/jexjQVIzdr

— Clean Up Britain (@cleanupbritain) July 24, 2026

Another focuses on a council that has left basic service standards unmet.

A new one on our travels around the country...
Another council failing to provide an acceptable 'service' to ratepayers. This time @WodcNews pic.twitter.com/wqg2FFcYbO

— Clean Up Britain (@cleanupbritain) July 27, 2026

Volunteers have stepped into the gap, proving that all it takes is a step ladder, cleaning spray and sponge to make filthy almost illegible road signs clear again.

Today with heavy rain all day I decided to go clean this road sign. Being wet with rain made cleaning much easier up a step ladder. Looks much better now pic.twitter.com/ihJisJJSpT

— Mike The Litterpicker (@mike56200) October 20, 2025

Yes it's my work it was easy a spray with kitchen spray and wipe then rinse off. We don't have to put up with it pic.twitter.com/I4heyf2NId

— Mike The Litterpicker (@mike56200) December 2, 2025

Well done to this man for cleaning up this road sign. Far too many of our road signs are covered in filth. The basics of maintenance are not being fulfilled by our local authorities. #GreatBritishCleanUp pic.twitter.com/varazRqVnI

— James Melville ? (@JamesMelville) November 18, 2025

What a pathetic government that leaves this to be done by citizens

— Nathan Rich ???? (@NathanRichHGDW) June 5, 2025

In London, Chad West fixed neglected garden square bins that the council had left unrepaired for years. He restored them in a few hours and later completed the full set of six, calling for people to take pride in their streets again.

For anyone still interested, all six bins in the park have now been restored ? pic.twitter.com/dE4ICw5Ykp

— Chad (@ChadWestTweets) August 9, 2026

True, but I'm raised old school, just get it done

— Chad (@ChadWestTweets) August 8, 2026

Even children are outperforming the authorities. In the seaside village of Millisle in Northern Ireland, brothers Jonah, 10, and Eli, 9, spent their school holidays scrubbing street signs with rubber gloves, cloths, sponges and soapy water. They set themselves a target of 50 signs and had already completed 36. They began after noticing dirty signs on the drive home and decided to clean them so people could actually read the names.

I saw an article about two boys who were using their school holidays to go around their town cleaning street signs.

They are not paid for it.

They just want to make a difference.

As soon as I saw the headline, I had a bet with myself that they were two white boys.

Jonah and... pic.twitter.com/b6TkYJl9ju

— Miss Jo (@therealmissjo) August 5, 2026

Jonah said: "We were driving home in my mum's car and we saw some dirty signs so we decided to go clean them to allow people to be able to see them." He added: "It's very important to take pride in your village. Doing something small can make a big difference."

Eli said they would keep going until the job was done, whatever the weather. Their mother Shelley said she was pleased they showed initiative and that it was something they would always remember and be proud of. Local residents praised the results, noting the signs were now legible again.

These acts of basic civic maintenance stand in sharp contrast to how councils choose to spend public money.

In Cambridge, England's first "cycle street" on Adams Road cost £2.4 million. Yes, really. Look at it.

England's first 'cycle street' forced to close over poor road markings despite £2.4million costhttps://t.co/LKq4J27YbJ

— GB News (@GBNEWS) August 11, 2026

It gave cyclists and pedestrians priority, narrowed the carriageway, added red surfacing and special signage. Within months the road markings proved inadequate. The street had to be closed for roughly two weeks so the contractor could remove and replace them. A Greater Cambridge Partnership spokesperson said a routine quality check revealed the markings were not up to the required standard and apologised for the inconvenience.

In London, Camden Council installed four zebra crossings painted in the blue, pink and white colours of the transgender pride flag in Bloomsbury at a cost of £10,464. The stated purpose was to "help celebrate transgender awareness."

London council faces legal action over trans flag pedestrian crossing@HJoyceGender: "The trans flag crossings... a costly exercise in celebrating a flag that represents unforgivable medical harms done to gender-distressed children in name of 'progress'." https://t.co/86cgI4u2Dg

— Sex Matters (@SexMattersOrg) July 7, 2025

A local resident, Blessing Olubanjo, argued that the crossings breach political neutrality rules under the Local Government Act 1986 and amount to unlawful political messaging. She said: "I brought this case because I believe in fairness, freedom of belief, and the proper role of public institutions. As a Christian and a taxpayer, I should not be made to feel excluded or marginalised by political symbols in public spaces. This crossing sends a message that only one viewpoint is welcome, and that's not right in a truly democratic society."

Now in the ?@theLDNstandard?

'London council faces legal action after installing road crossing in colours of transgender pride flag'

?@christianlegal? https://t.co/suA2n3tv4e

— SEEN in Journalism (@JournalismSEEN) July 6, 2025

Andrea Williams of the Christian Legal Centre stated: "The crossing is a visual endorsement of a contested ideology, installed by a public authority in breach of its legal duties. This is not the role of local government." Disability groups had previously warned that the colours could confuse visually impaired people and those with learning disabilities or sensory sensitivity.

Such rainbow and trans crossings have been installed in countless locations, particularly in London.

Meanwhile, Mayor of London Sadiq Khan has poured millions into basketball courts and related programmes. City Hall has invested nearly £2 million to improve facilities, expand coaching schemes and create more opportunities for the sport.

Recent work includes partnership with NBA champion OG Anunoby and Camden Council to redevelop the Argyle Square court. Critics point out that many British people do not even play or watch basketball and that streets choked with weeds and filthy signs represent more immediate needs.

Don't want basketball courts. Want... what shall we start with? Maybe streets that are not covered in 5ft weeds first please. Priorities. https://t.co/vyIIzDgCu8 pic.twitter.com/2b4xmHE2R5

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) August 6, 2026

This is what decline looks like. First-world countries do not leave their road signs illegible for years. They do not require ten-year-olds to restore civic pride during the school holidays. They do not prioritise contested ideological symbols and niche sports infrastructure while the everyday environment decays.

I still can't get over this ... when did we become so shit at everything? pic.twitter.com/WLrQYlNYlw

— Becky Tallentire (@Bluestocking63) July 23, 2026

Britain is displaying the visual markers once associated with much poorer nations: neglect of the ordinary, indifference from those in charge, and citizens forced to improvise solutions.

Edinburgh – new postcard designs pic.twitter.com/PWw71m7vIz

— Edinburgh's Disgraces (@EdiDisgraces) July 23, 2026

This is my town pic.twitter.com/yS2XGNklCD

— inkyblue (@brushworking) July 24, 2026

pic.twitter.com/Z9Y5amTnB1

— Simon Monckton (@SimonMonckton) July 23, 2026

That's the ruse- stop maintaining the environment, let drains and gullets become blocked, let river channels silt up, make flooding more likely, call it climate change, scam the punter for more cash. pic.twitter.com/iGsARIViYW

— TrevorDistance (@TrevorDistance3) July 24, 2026

Bath's Royal Victoria Park duck pond. 196 years old, left to die on the LibDem's watch... So sad, so wrong...
Where is Wera Hobhouse MP when we really need her? pic.twitter.com/JeMypyaspb

— Mark S (@sidcot) August 4, 2026

The council have totally given up, pavement, what pavement? pic.twitter.com/H0IFpyIEF7

— Remote Viewer (@chess137) August 4, 2026

So true, parts of #Moray look like we have been living in an apocalypse for a few years. I think last year the councillors got a 40% increase and the CEO got a 23% increase; it must be so nice to be paid more for incompetence and failures. pic.twitter.com/mflhmtCAX6

— Glenden S Fawcett (@theFMofficer) August 4, 2026

Flooded roads, blocked drainage and deep potholes... We need a serious national discussion as to why our Councils are failing. It's not just "lack of funds" it's something more fundamental... lack of pride, turning a blind eye, amateur working practices and minimal... pic.twitter.com/RKiQOfwfjT

— Clean Up Britain (@cleanupbritain) February 23, 2026

We have lost the ability to look after and maintain anything in this country. Britain IS crumbling.

Litter, fly-tipping, neglected infrastructure and potholes.
Sadly, we have the lot... in spades. This cannot go on. pic.twitter.com/pcTGtusoYw

— Clean Up Britain (@cleanupbritain) October 22, 2025

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/14/2026 - 02:00

Total Freedom Vs Total Slavery & The Race For AI Supremacy

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

The introduction of AI into popular consciousness and everyday usage has been rather disappointing, for the most part. And by that I mean, we’re not seeing any spectacular benefits to the presence of AI while the negatives keep piling up.

At best, AI represents an advancement for information structuring; a much faster way to sort, categorize and investigate the data landscape. I find it very useful for speeding up research, but it only works as long as you understand that AI tends to lie by omission. It can never be fully trusted and must be backed by source material.

By extension, AI makes people incredibly lazy when it comes to understanding the world or pursuing information. When the public takes AI information at face value because they don’t want to do their own research, it makes them dumber. I foresee a dark future, maybe a decade from now, where the vast majority of people have become virtually retarded because all of their daily decisions and views of the world come from a reliance on AI.

Some people will argue that we’ve already hit that unfortunate threshold. In any case, what is the ultimate purpose of AI? There’s hundreds of different answers depending on who you ask, however, only a few explanations stand out as true motivators for the race to artificial intelligence.

A Labor-Free Utopia?

If you ask technologists and dreamers like Elon Musk, the goal is unlimited production. Meaning, AI and robotics would take over the majority of human labor. In theory, this would result in a new age of “time abundance” which Musk believes would lead to a form of wealth abundance. That is to say, AI technology makes individual labor unnecessary and thus, money becomes unnecessary because all basic needs would be provided for free.

There are two disturbing problems with this idea: First, it’s a claim we’ve been hearing for a very long time. The futurists and technocrats of every socialist revolution have been promising the populace a labor-free Utopia for over a century. Usually this propaganda is designed to ease the public transition into a system in which the state controls mass production and limits individual freedom.

The promise of a labor-free world is usually a con-game designed to lure the public into total reliance on government. When your very survival is dependent on the system, it’s far less likely that you will ever rebel against that system should it be corrupted.

I’m not saying that Musk is falsely promising a “Utopia”, I think he really does believe that AI and robotics are the answer to the age-old conundrum of the “wealth gap”, poverty and the production plateau. What I’m saying is, this dream is much further away than the year 2036, or even the year 2050. And, if we do reach it, it might not be as fantastical as we might hope.

Every new industrial age has it’s dreamers and they all imagine a world where human struggle is eliminated by machines. It never happens. I suspect robotics and AI would make some things easier, just as all tools make certain jobs easier, but let’s not forget that the further humanity moves away from self reliance the more we seem to be required to work (or, the more time we are expected to trade) to maintain a basic level of comfort.

Previous industrial revolutions have created benefits and added time to the human lifespan. But we’ve also seen technological reformation lead to greater work demands and less time for the average person. Before the first industrial revolution, the average person worked 1500 – 2000 hours annually. After the industrial revolution, hours skyrocketed to 3000 – 3500 hours annually. Labor laws were finally enacted which forced work time back to 1800 hours annually per person.

Despite the vast improvements in productivity, there was no dramatic improvement in free time for common people and I’m not so sure the AI revolution will be any different. This brings us to the second problem: Nothing in life is ever free and the reason why is ENERGY.

Musk’s vision of an AI super-industry running the majority of the world’s basic infrastructure and supplying the majority of our survival goods would require an unprecedented level of energy. Ever try to fly a drone? Ever look up the average battery life for a Boston Dynamics robot? Ever try to drive an EV cross-country?

You might get 30 minutes out of a consumer grade drone. You can get 4 hours out of an advanced robot. The massive battery in an electric car will give you around 300 miles of drive time. But when you recharge any of these items you’re going to be using the power grid. And, that power grid will largely be supplied by coal or natural gas. “Fossil fuel” products still run the world because they are the most efficient.

There’s a reason why only 5% of US car owners drive an electric vehicle; the initial expense is high and the long term savings are mediocre. More than that, though, the infrastructure is simply not in place to support a larger influx of EV users.

If 50% of American drivers bought an EV tomorrow, this alone would increase the electrical load on US power grids by around 15%. Add to this the power usage of data centers and AI computing needed to run national robotics networks and the resulting energy demands would crush the grid. Either that, or the cost of electricity would inflate until human demand hits a wall.

This is just for America (the most advanced nation on Earth). Don’t get me started on Europe, where their grid can’t even handle widespread use of air conditioners.

We could upgrade with solar (which is inefficient), or build extra nuclear power plants, but this would take decades to accomplish. General estimates indicate such a project would cost anywhere from $5 trillion on the low end to $15 trillion on the high end, and it would take 30 years to complete. We’re talking about a two-generation endeavor requiring a level of coordination and cooperation that simply does not exist in today’s political climate.

Hell, we can’t even get leftists and globalists to admit that nuclear power is a clean source of energy. Those idiots are still building wind turbines and murdering thousands of whales and birds in the name of preventing a “climate crisis” that they fabricated out of thin air.

To summarize, the world of production abundance and a work-free population is a LONG ways away, because the energy resources for that kind of industrial revolution simply don’t exist. At best, we could build a supplementary economy in which robotics and AI are used as tools to make things faster or easier. The average person is still going to have to get a 9-to-5 job and will still have to make money to live.

All of this relies on good intentions behind the rush to AI supremacy, and yes, I realize how funny that sounds.

A Freedom-Less Dystopia?

The worst case scenario is the more likely one: AI, data centers and robotics will be used to empower elitist groups and make controlling the population easier. When I examine institutions like the WEF, the IMF, the BIS, etc. , their involvement with AI revolves around the digitization of the economy (a cashless society) and maximizing surveillance of the population through real time data tracking.

Until these malicious people are removed from the equation, no AI based system can be trusted to operate in the best interests of the public. Maybe the technology can be used for good, but they are pursuing these tools to do evil and there is an array of sinister deeds to be done when you have a force multiplier like AI at your disposal.

Much less energy is needed for authoritarian applications. The existing grid could handle the spread of Flock cameras, the AI analysis of biometrics and license plate readers, the constant surveillance of financial transactions, etc. If they start forcing the public to use less and less electricity (in the name of saving the Earth from climate change, of course), the job of running a network of eyes and ears becomes even more simple.

Total information awareness on the part of governments and international entities is a bad thing. They don’t need to know everything we’re doing; it’s better that they know less and retain a healthy level of fear when it comes to the popular mood. When the bureaucracy is no longer afraid because they have everyone under a microscope, that’s when terrible things are going to happen.

The Information Economy Is A Fantasy?

Beyond the best and worst case scenarios for AI and robotics rests a middle-ground explanation for the AI rush, and that’s the concept of the “information economy.” In its lowest form, the information economy taps into algorithms to gather behavioral data for companies to target selling and marketing of products; it’s the building of individual consumer profiles for targeted advertising and higher profits.

As many people know, these algorithms get most things wrong and rarely compel us to buy anything we weren’t already going to purchase. As for the idea of information replacing raw resources as the engine of the global economy, all I can think of is the financial sector’s blind faith in derivatives in the early 2000s. An economy built on intangible products is an economy destined for collapse.

In its most insidious form, the information economy strives for predictive power. That is to say, companies and governments hope to use complex AI analysis of market behavior to predict larger shifts in the economic and political landscape. And, if you can predict these shifts, you could theoretically influence them as well.

This was the ultimate goal of companies like Google (tracking search trends to the point of becoming omniscient). AI just makes the real-time analysis easier. That said, I suspect predicting mass economic and political changes is a lot like predicting the weather – You might be able to guess a few days ahead, but the complexities of the system make long term prognostication impossible. The technocratic faith in a digital Nostradamus (or digital god) is moronic.

At bottom, the application of AI, robotics, data centers, and related technologies could cause a sea change in the way we live our lives, but not because these changes are inevitable. Rather, these changes would have to be forced on an unaware and confused public.

I suspect this is why the tech trend is pushing so hard for human-like robots.  The human form is not so great for most physical requirements; why the insistence on making robots look human?  Maybe because making them look human makes them more acceptable to the average person?

AI is not an industrial revolution in the traditional sense because it’s not driven by free market demand. Most people can easily live without AI while the benefit to their lives is barely noticeable. The second industrial revolution introduced electricity, unprecedented medical advancement, long distance communications and easy transportation; all things that people never want to live without.

AI pales in comparison so far, and the promises that propel its popularity require an energy renaissance that isn’t possible for many decades to come. Sadly, the most logical use for the proliferation of AI is suppression of the populace. For the globalists, the AI race is not about improving the future for the common man, it’s about injecting the technology into the common man’s life before he has a chance to realize he’s being chained down by it.

Without intensive open source laws, extensive public oversight and the elimination of elitist influence, AI will only result in disaster.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 23:25

Meet The Red State Corridor Behind America's Top Boomtowns

The two top-ranked boomtowns in the United States lie less than 80 miles apart on the same stretch of Texas interstate, turning a single highway into one of the nation's most potent engines of population and economic expansion.

New Braunfels ranked second and Georgetown first in a SmartAsset study that examined more than 400 cities with populations of at least 65,000. Both communities sit along Interstate 35, the corridor linking San Antonio to Austin and Dallas that has absorbed a large share of Texas's inbound migration over the past decade.

The New Braunfels’ Monoceras dance team walk in the Comal County Fair Parade Friday, Sept. 29, 2023 at Main Plaza in New Braunfels.

The data behind New Braunfels's ranking stand out even by Sunbelt standards. Housing units rose 40% over five years, the labor force expanded 32%, and real gross domestic product in Comal County, home to most of the city, compounded at an annual rate of 6.8% - a pace higher than almost every other county in the country. Those three metrics - housing supply, workforce size and county-level output - formed the basis of SmartAsset's composite score.

Census Bureau estimates put the city's population at 122,492 as of July 1, 2025.

A drone captures an overhead shot of the 2024 annual Wurstfest celebrations hosted in New Braunfels, Texas - Via FlyBy Photography

"In recent years, some American cities stand out for attracting people, investment and development at a pace that sets them apart," the report said. "Boomtown status does not mean growth benefits everyone equally, but it does reflect a city's expanding economic capacity and the new opportunities that come with it."

Texas nearly swept the top of the list - Leander ranked fourth and the Dallas-Fort Worth suburb of Lewisville fifth, giving the state four of the top five. Williamson County, home to Georgetown, posted an even faster compound rate than Comal at 7.7%.

The red state accounted for 18 of the top 75 boomtowns while Florida contributed 19, together representing nearly half the list.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 23:00

Anthony Fauci And The Collapse Of Scientific Authority

Authored by Jason Locasale via The DisInformation Chronicle,

Today's guest essay comes from Jason Locasale who looks at academia's embrace of authority over scientific data and evidence to preserve narratives and protect those in power.

Anthony Fauci is now facing intense scrutiny. His diaries, emails, and testimony have raised fundamental questions about what he knew, what he then told the public, and how he exercised authority during the pandemic. Many outside of academia read these documents and view this moment as his fall from grace, while universities and medical institutions seem willing to ignore this new evidence and continue to celebrate Fauci as a heroic public servant with unmatched scientific authority.

Academics' unconventional viewpoint cannot be ignored. Fauci matters not only because of his individual conduct, but because he exposes the institutions that produced, empowered, and continue to protect him - Georgetown rewarded him with a prestigious position after he retired from the government in his 80s.

The pandemic did not create the dysfunction inside biomedical science. It placed a magnifying glass over science institutions that had been decaying for decades. Grant politics, unfounded hype, administrative expansion, scientific gerontocracy, institutional self-protection, and the punishment of dissent were already pervasive. Fauci enabled the public to watch those forces operate through one person on television every day.

Biomedical institutions did not create a single Fauci. They created thousands. The pandemic spotlight simply made one of them famous.

What the diaries reveal

Fauci's diaries offer an unusually revealing account of how he understood his role during the pandemic. Written as notes toward a future autobiography, they show what he considered important enough to preserve about those years.

The diaries undermine the mythology of a reluctant scientist who was unexpectedly thrust into politics and celebrity. They reveal a bureaucrat celebrity preoccupied with attention, status, prominent relationships, TV appearances, reputation, his own place in history, and cash money.

His interest in how he was portrayed, whom he met, who praised him, and how his public image was developing consumes far more attention than any serious engagement with the complex science of COVID-19 and the pandemic. The office shrine, the concern with his portrait, the meticulous record of his fame, and the diary itself as material for an autobiography all expose the same fixation.

Those self-curated notes reveal his priorities. Science is less as an intellectual pursuit than as the credential supporting the public performance.

The related emails and documents complete the picture. Fauci sought nominations for cash prizes from influential friends and used federal employees to help him win those awards. These awards were then presented publicly as independent acknowledgments of merit.

One of the most important revelations in the new documents was the distance between private uncertainty and public certainty. Fauci and those around him privately discussed scientific possibilities that they publicly dismissed and even attacked as conspiracies. The authors of the Proximal Origin paper privately assigned a laboratory origin for the COVID pandemic as a substantial probability, then helped present that possibility to the public as impossible.

The same pattern appeared in pronouncements about masking, vaccine transmission, and other major pandemic questions. The issue is not hindsight. The issue is presenting uncertain claims as settled truth while privately recognizing that the evidence was unresolved.

Authority substituted for scientific judgement

Fauci projected an image of authority, and for too many, image alone was sufficient. His title, confidence, and media presence substituted for careful engagement with data..

Masking, for example, involved questions of aerosol physics, fluid mechanics, particle size, droplet formation, airflow, filtration, leakage, and fit. These are concrete scientific and engineering questions. But Fauci's own diary finds that he showed no interest in working through the scientific complexity before making definitive public pronouncements.

We can read in his own words that Fauci approached scientific disagreement more like a party in an adversarial legal proceeding than a scientist. Once an institutional position had been adopted, contrary evidence became an obstacle and dissenting scientists became opponents to defeat. The objective shifted from determining what was true to defending political ground and preserving authority.

This is the opposite of a scientific temperament. A good scientist is skeptical, including of his own conclusions. He is comfortable acknowledging uncertainty and may spend days thinking privately through a problem. He does not need a camera, a slogan, or the appearance of omniscience.

Fauci illustrates the difference between projecting authority and possessing a curious, scientific mind.

Scientific credentialism

Fauci majored in classics before earning an MD when medical education was driven by rote memorization and provided little formal preparation for scientific research. His degree was a clinical credential to treat sick people, not a degree for lab research.

When he entered laboratory research, molecular immunology was not yet a developed science and when academic physicians could obtain laboratory directorships early in their careers. He then became an NIH administrator at a relatively young age.

The issue is not that he began his career before modern technologies existed. Every older scientist did. The relevant question is whether an aging scientist continues learning, adapting, and making discoveries as the field develops.

The best scientists remain intellectually active later in life because they master new technologies and continue challenging themselves and their own field. Unfortunately, too many establish their careers by being in the right place at the right time, then coast for another twenty or thirty years through networks that make adaptation unnecessary.

By the time the pandemic arrived, Fauci had spent decades as a bureaucrat, dealing with budgets and manuevering through arcane government policies - far removed from frontline science. Nothing in that history made him a universal authority on masking, vaccine transmission, population epidemiology, viral evolution, or every other field on which he pronounced.

His real expertise was navigating institutions, consolidating authority, cultivating relationships, and projecting the image of a scientist to the public.

The scientific gerontocracy

Fauci's career fits a broader historical pattern created by universities and their research systems funded by NIH.

When the NIH budget doubled around the turn of the century, universities expanded their biomedical operations. Medical schools hired large numbers of professors whose income and laboratories depended on external grants - called "soft money" positions. Scientists who had attached their names to important genes or disease pathways during the previous era suddenly gained access to enormous new funding streams.

They built large laboratories, accumulated grants, generated indirect-cost revenue for their universities, and developed influence throughout NIH study sections, journals, professional societies, and university administrations. Money created authority, and authority attracted more money.

Many of these people later became department chairs, deans, institute directors, and even university presidents. A few continued doing important science, but most did not adapt as new technologies transformed biology. Their scientific contributions declined while their institutional influence continued growing.

The result was an academic aristocracy whose power survived long after the circumstances that created it disappeared. Seniority came to be treated as wisdom, incumbency as excellence, and grant accumulation as scientific achievement.

Fauci was the most visible member of this gerontocracy. Before the public knew his name, he had already spent nearly forty years controlling a major NIH institute, and there are countless others. The transformation of NIAID into a roughly $6 billion organization is not a self-validating accomplishment. Budget growth does not prove scientific success.

A serious evaluation must examine the priorities entrenched, the dissent discouraged, the opportunities lost, and the consequences of allowing one person to control a government agency for nearly four decades. In retrospect, J. Edgar Hoover served far too many decades running the FBI and history will likely not look kindly on Fauci's term inside the NIH.

We must also ask what was not studied because Fauci had his thumb on the funding scales for so long. Basic questions about how sleep, diet, exercise, metabolism, stress, sunlight, and other environmental factors shape immunity received far less attention than Fauci's preferred institutional agenda which was heavily focused on HIV.

The pandemic did not suddenly turn Fauci into a problem. It exposed the culture over which he had already presided for decades.

Scientific celebrity as product

The public sees a handful of scientific celebrities. Insiders know that universities manufacture them by the thousands.

Every major institution has its local circuit of people whose identities revolve around image, status, proximity to power, and the belief that they are stars. They perform the role of scientific authority even when they have shown little interest in science for years, if ever. Some convert the arrangement into wealth. Others are paid in prestige and deference.

These people are not scientists who reluctantly became administrators. They are administrators who use science as a credential. They become skilled at cultivating superficial impressions, repeating approved narratives, and moving through bureaucratic hierarchies. Their institutional rise is then treated as evidence of scientific judgement.

Fauci was the A-list version of this phenomenon. His media charm allowed him to become nationally famous, but his underlying career was familiar. He differed from thousands of university and NIH administrators mainly because he had a camera crew and never missed a moment to be on TV.

Favor-trading as independent recognition

Fauci's documented relationships with influential figures at Duke illustrate how the establishment reproduces itself.

Fauci reached out to his friend at Duke for award nominations. Duke receives hundreds of millions of dollars in NIAID funding. Organizations then rank Duke according to how much NIH money it attracts. Those rankings are presented as evidence of excellence, and Duke administrators are considered for senior positions within NIH.

Funding, nominations, endorsements, appointments, awards, and prestige circulate through the same small network. Each transaction is then presented as an independent recognition of merit.

This does not require a cinematic conspiracy with a mastermind issuing secret instructions. It just takes time and a bit of curiosity to read the documents laying this out. Aligned incentives, expectations of reciprocity, career dependence, and institutional self-preservation are sufficient. The network coordinates itself because everyone understands which relationships and financial streams must be protected.

And for all these exchanges made public in the news documents, thousands of similar arrangements remain hidden but just as concrete in study sections, professional societies, journal boards, university committees, philanthropic organizations, and government agencies.

Anyone who challenges the arrangement risks being marginalized or blacklisted. Those who participate are promoted as respected scientific leaders.

Narrative management replaces truth

Universities, NIH, journals, scientific societies, medical organizations, biotech, pharma, venture capital, and science media form a self-reinforcing network. Each organization looks to the others for validation. A prestigious paper creates enthusiasm. Academics repeat the narrative. Investors interpret that consensus as reduced risk. Companies raise capital. Advisors and board members reinforce the story. Pharma later treats the institutional excitement as evidence that the underlying biology is sound.

Everyone benefits from optimism until the science fails. Then the network moves on to the next target without confronting why they got the previous consensus wrong. Because self-examination might lead to loss of prestige, authority, or cash to keep the scientific enterprise afloat.

The same institutional structure rewards grant volume over insight, compliance over skepticism, and institutional pedigree over independent judgement. Peer review is not a neutral mechanism floating above these incentives. It is embedded within them.

Fauci made this process visible. Information was accepted or discarded according to whether it advanced the preferred narrative, protected institutional authority, or preserved reputation. Contrary evidence was not evaluated neutrally. It was treated as a political and professional threat.

Labels such as "conspiracy theory" became tools for dismissing plausible evidence without answering it. Institutional authority was used to define what could be discussed, and then the resulting silence was offered as proof of consensus.

Mythology survives inside academia

Many outside academia say Fauci has fallen from grace, that his legacy is destroyed, and that his reputation has collapsed. Nothing could be further from the truth inside academic medicine and biomedical research.

Within universities, medical societies, and the organizations controlling credentials and prestige, Fauci remains a celebrity and hero. He continues to receive invitations, prestigious platforms, awards, and public praise. Major universities still present him as one of the nation's most important public-health leaders.

The managerial class sees Fauci as the embodiment of itself. His career validates the qualities that it rewards: institutional longevity, bureaucratic influence, narrative discipline, media skill, prestigious relationships, and the ability to present authority as expertise.

Fauci is not merely protected by that class. He is its idealized self-portrait.

These institutions can maintain their own universe of facts because their revenue streams continue regardless of their performance. Taxpayers, donors, tuition, hospital income, grants, and endowment returns allow them to survive without admitting error. There is no effective mechanism of accountability.

The ship is not sinking because the public discovers misconduct. The ship can take on water indefinitely because someone else keeps paying to repair it.

Why Fauci remains important

I keep returning to Fauci not because I claim expertise in every aspect of the pandemic. I do not.

I return to him because he gave the public a rare view of how scientific authority is manufactured and protected. Most people never see the senior administrators, grantmakers, journal editors, society leaders, and local scientific celebrities who shape permissible narratives inside biomedicine. Fauci placed this old way of doing science with TV appearances and shaping of the media.

His diaries and records offer a watershed opportunity. The lesson should not end with deciding whether one man lied, exercised bad judgment, or deserves punishment. The more important question is why the institutions surrounding him showed so little interest in determining the truth and remain so committed to protecting his mythology.

Scientific integrity cannot be partisan. Every person should demand honesty and accountability from institutions that claim the authority of science.

Public-health messaging must be honest before it is clear. Real leaders explain uncertainty, earn trust, and rally the public toward sound action. Manufactured certainty is not leadership. Clarity without honesty is propaganda.

What reform requires

The administrative machinery cannot investigate or reform itself. Its leaders know how to convert criticism into committees, reports, mission statements, listening sessions, and carefully worded promises while leaving the underlying structure untouched.

Reform requires enforceable transparency, external oversight, public accountability, and meaningful consequences for failure. Funding must move away from administrative empires and toward scientists capable of producing important knowledge.

The NIH-centered, large-institution model should face competition from smaller, independent research institutes with lower overhead, clearer missions, and greater accountability. Philanthropy should stop enlarging university endowments and begin building alternative institutions for science, education, and career development.

Scientific leadership should not become a throne occupied for decades. Older scientists should be judged by whether they continue learning, adapting, and contributing, not by the authority accumulated from work performed thirty years earlier. Dissent must be treated as part of science rather than a threat to institutional reputation. Uncertainty must be communicated rather than edited out. Scientific merit must be separated from grant volume, celebrity, political alignment, and bureaucratic skill.

Fauci is not the entire problem. He is just its clearest illustration. He placed the biomedical establishment under a spotlight, and they have failed to confront the harsh light.

Jason Locasale is an American biochemist and former tenured professor specializing in cancer metabolism, nutrition, and the application of AI to health and longevity research. With over two decades in academia and more than 200 peer-reviewed publications, he is recognized as a Highly Cited Researcher (top 0.1% globally) for six consecutive years. He has held advisory roles with biotech firms, the National Cancer Institute, and the National Institutes of Health, and has contributed to textbook chapters and patents.

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The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 22:35

US Sending Fresh Carrier To Relieve Over-Extended USS Lincoln Amid Reports Of Sailor Burn-Out

Below we've detailed the immense strain placed on the long-deployed USS Lincoln aircraft carrier, which has been the main floating naval hub of operations amid the Iran war. The past weeks have seen growing US media coverage of the immense strain placed on the some 5000-member crew, and given the typical port calls have been nearly absent for the extended deployment and operation. But on Thursday the Wall Street Journal is reporting than an urgent relief operation is in the works, as the USS George Washington is being rapidly prepared to take over operations in the region:

The U.S. is preparing to send the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Middle East to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln as part of a previously scheduled rotation plan, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter. The Lincoln has undergone an extended deployment with few port calls, prompting lawmakers to raise concerns about living conditions aboard the ship.

The Lincoln began a scheduled deployment in November and was redirected to the Middle East in January ahead of the U.S. war against Iran. The carrier and its embarked aircraft were instrumental to the U.S.’s Operation Epic Fury bombing campaign, and the ship has since participated in the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. 

The high tempo of operations and the strain of an extended deployment have weighed on sailors, according to lawmakers who are pressing the Pentagon for more information about the living conditions and reports of mental-health issues aboard the carrier.

Below we provide further details of the growing hardships, and the fact that Congressional leaders have gotten involved. It seems the Pentagon and Trump administration are now responding to the reports.

More than five months into a US-Israeli war on Iran that was supposed to last less than five weeks, a rising toll is being paid by deployed members of the US armed forces. Beyond the pointless deaths of 18 service members and wounds inflicted on more than 600 others, family members say sailors aboard the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier are suffering from a variety of detrimental effects of going more than 28 weeks without a port call -- so much so that multiple crew members have tried leaping off the mammoth vessel.   

Amid the growing firestorm over conditions on the nuclear-powered, Nimitz-class carrier, Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) on Wednesday fired off a letter to acting US Navy Secretary Hung Cao. A member of the Senate armed forces committee, Blumenthal summarized the accounts that have been making their way from the ship's sailors to their concerned family members: 

There have been widespread reports of shortages of basic supplies, water contamination, plumbing issues, deteriorating mental health, deck safety concerns, and disruptions in the mail system, which have caused many care packages in route to the ship to be lost in transit for

The Lincoln departed its San Diego home base on Nov. 21, 2025, on what was supposed to be a seven-month deployment. That deployment is now in its ninth month, but what's far more remarkable is that the Lincoln went more than 200 days without a port call to give sailors a chance to walk on land and unwind away from the claustrophobic conditions aboard their huge ship. Here's how former Navy SEAL Matt Bracken described life on a carrier in a discussion of the Lincoln situation on X: 

"Look at the cross section, then imagine a new set of compartments connected in all directions but in different ways every 15 to 30 feet. With the human passageway and berthing compartment ceilings no more than about 6'4" high, and the passageways just wide enough for men to pass. You have to duck your head and lift your foot high constantly over open p-way hatches. Miss, and you smack your skull or your shin.

It becomes incredibly oppressive and claustrophobic for the 5,000 who live inside. Many sailors don't see the sky for a week at a time, living entirely inside that steel warren. It works on the mind in a pernicious way. It's always humming and throbbing and vibrating. It's hard to describe. Most would go nuts in there after a month."

After departing, the Lincoln made a mere one-day stop in Guam two weeks before Christmas. "[It] was so brief that much of the crew likely never went ashore," observed the War Zone's Ian Ellis-Jones. Typically, a carrier crew might expect a port call every 30 to 45 days, with each break spanning around 3 to 5 days. Way back on June 16, an officer aboard the Lincoln said his ship had "claimed the title for most consecutive days at sea for any modern aircraft carrier." The previous such record -- 206 days -- was set by the USS Eisenhower in 2020, a feat in part forced by the Covid pandemic that limited port access.  In early July, the Lincoln finally made a brief port call in Oman, where a resupply helped end an apparent several-month span without serving fresh fruits or vegetables. Many sailors got off the ship, but were stuck in a secure compound at the port. 

Over recent weeks, family members of the Lincoln's 5,000-sailor-and-Marine crew have grown increasingly vocal about what they're hearing about conditions on the ship -- to include claims that multiple sailors are so despondent about being relentlessly cooped up that they've tried leaping off the ship, the flight deck of which stands about six and a half-stories above the sea.  

One of the accounts came from the wife of a would-be suicidal sailor. Her husband is now in a medical hold, and she says she hasn't had an update from the Navy in weeks. “He’s scared,” Annabelle Loma told the Navy Times. “He thinks he’ll get a dishonorable discharge, and just because he was burnt out, his 13-year career is ruined, just like that." Of course, one's ability to hold up under stress is a material factor in suitability for continued service, and we have to wonder how her husband will feel about her going public about his suicide attempt.

Another family member said her husband prevented a different sailor from going overboard, calling out to the sailor and then grabbing their arms and pulling them down to the deck. For every sailor who's stepped up to the edge of the deck, there are apparently many more suffering from endless monotony. “I’m just actively watching my (sailor) kind of break down, like they’re losing hope and everything,” one spouse told Stars and Stripes.  

So glad Trump decided to do this war. https://t.co/wdANwojqMg

— Brandon Weichert (@WeTheBrandon) August 12, 2026

Last month, an anguished parent shared a perspective with Stars and Stripes that indicates frustration with prolonged sea duty is being compounded by bewilderment over why President Trump decided to join the State of Israel in launching a war on Iran:   

“My son is currently on that ship and listening to him say that he and his shipmates constantly think about jumping off the ship just for relief is so hard to listen to. We are all tucked in at night in our beds at night meanwhile our loved ones are out there fighting with no understanding as to what they’re defending.”

Beyond the sheer time at sea, long shifts, and going many days without a break, the quality of life on the Lincoln is said to have declined, with complaints about moldy showers, rationing of food, and a lack of basic hygiene supplies like toothpaste, deodorant and soap. One woman says her son told her the food situation has been so bad at times that a meal consists of only a half-cup of rice and two tortillas.  

Last week, more than 200 family members took part in town halls hosted by Navy Secretary Cao. One woman tearfully recounted how her husband messaged her that morning, saying "he hopes he doesn’t wake up tomorrow." 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 22:10

Babylon Bee Sues New Mexico Over Restrictions On AI Satirical Posts

Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times,

The Babylon Bee, a satirical online publication, is suing the state of New Mexico over a law that bans artificial intelligence-created misrepresentation of political figures and issues, including satire and parody, in the months leading up to an election.

(L-R) Timothy Head, executive director of the Faith & Freedom Coalition talks with Seth Dillon, CEO, of the Babylon Bee and Kyle Mann, editor and chief, at the annual "Road To Majority Policy Conference" held by the Faith & Freedom Coalition at the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center in Nashville, Tenn., on June 18, 2022. Seth Herald/Getty Images

In a lawsuit filed on Aug. 11, the Babylon Bee charged that the law criminalizes speech that is protected by the First Amendment.

"We're used to getting pulled over by the joke police, but comedy isn't a crime," Babylon Bee CEO Seth Dillon told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement.

"The First Amendment protects our right to create AI satire poking fun at political candidates," Dillon said. "We'll never stop fighting to defend that freedom."

New Mexico's law, passed in 2024, makes it illegal to post "materially deceptive media" generated with AI, within 90 days before an election, without a state-mandated warning label. The law specifically includes satire and parody, and covers flyers, social media posts, and memes, with violators liable for fines up to $20,000.

AI has become increasingly adept at creating media that is difficult to distinguish from actual photos and videos, prompting many officials to call for restrictions on AI-generated posts in order to shield the public from false information.

But New Mexico's law also aligns with other efforts by government officials to control what they deem to be "misinformation." This includes efforts by the Biden administration to pressure social media companies to suppress statements during the COVID-19 pandemic that conflicted with official narratives on topics like the source of the virus and vaccines, as well as the creation of a Disinformation Governance Board within the Department of Homeland Security in 2022.

Similarly, the European Union's Digital Services Act, which also applies to American companies, contains provisions that compel tech companies to suppress what the act calls "disinformation."

Attorneys representing the Babylon Bee say that laws like these often violate Americans' First Amendment rights.

"When these laws are framed as broadly as they are, it really is state censorship of political speech, which is the highest rung of speech that our Constitution protects," Logan Spena, an attorney with Alliance Defending Freedom who is representing the Babylon Bee, told The Epoch Times. "We want to make sure the government is not in the business of trying to decide what's true and false in the matter of political debates."

The lawsuit against New Mexico states that, while there are exceptions to the First Amendment, such as obscenity, incitement, defamation, and threats, "the government's declaration that speech is false does not empower it to restrict that speech."

"As [AI] gets more realistic, I think states are getting a little more concerned, but the problem is that they're overreacting in ways that unconstitutionally restricts protected speech," Spena said. As artificially generated images proliferate, people will become more discerning about what they see online, he said.

New Mexico officials did not respond to a request for comment as of press time. A statement provided to media outlets by a state Ethics Commission spokesperson said that "the Commission has never taken action to enforce the AI-disclaimer requirements in Section 1-19-26.4 of the Campaign Reporting Act, much less for political parody and satire. While the Babylon Bee has a First Amendment right to mock New Mexico, it does not have a right to extract attorneys' fees from the State."

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 21:45

US Creates New 'Multinational' Attack Drone Task Force Amid Iran War & Lessons Learned In Ukraine

Compared to what Ukraine and Russia are learning in the context of their grinding years-long war, the Pentagon is a bit late in putting together comprehensive drone swarm battle plans and tactics, but it seems to be the clear direction of future conflict spaces.

On Thursday US Central Command unveiled that it is officially establishing America's first-ever multi-domain, multinational attack drone task force.

An announcement identified the initiative as Force Falcon Strike, which "will employ one-way attack drones consisting of unmanned systems from above, on, and below the sea operated by military support staff from the United States and regional partners."

Already the Pentagon has been deploying one-way attack drones in the context of ongoing Middle East Operations, which has been dubbed Task Force Scorpion Strike.

"Task Force Falcon Strike will expand on Scorpion Strike’s success given the tremendous innovation happening among our regional allies and partners," stated Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander. "Integrating and deploying our new capabilities together will help us rapidly realize the new possibilities that are on the horizon."

The broader initiative will invite regional partners to coordinate and cooperate with Pentagon operations, and it will ultimately be commanded from MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa.

The aforementioned example of Ukraine war has been dominated by literally hundreds of thousands of small UAVs, sometimes hitting in waves of 'drone swarms' on either side - and China too is said to be bulking up its arsenal with AI drone swarms with an eye on potential Taiwan action.

Consider for example, the following observation related to the recent Ukraine battlefield:

Ukraine just mounted an attack that marks a turning point in the history of warfare Hundreds of drones were pre-deployed and then struck 40+ aircraft 1000+ km inside of Russia >$1B in damage by <$1m of drones Critical infra is no longer safe," Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire wrote on X. 

This is the new face of warfare — covert, mobile, and nearly impossible to detect until it's too late. Also, the US now faces growing vulnerabilities, not only from irregular warfare but also from potential internal security lapses. And as the battlefield leaves the era of conventional 'fronts' - the Pentagon wants to catch up on holding the edge on weapons tech.

US Central Command graphic

Many independent observers fear that with all the recent leaps in AI in the context of military applications, a futuristic and dangerous SkyNet scenario could be just around the corner.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 21:20

State Department Launches Birth Tourism Prevention Task Force

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

The Department of State on Wednesday announced the existence of a task force that has already revoked hundreds of visas from foreign nationals accused of exploiting U.S. immigration laws.

Migrants, including a pregnant Haitian woman seeking to give birth in the United States, are apprehended by a U.S. Border Patrol agent in Yuma, Ariz., on Dec. 7, 2021. John Moore/Getty Images

The announcement of the Birth Tourism Prevention Task Force comes as President Donald Trump issued new orders in response to a June 30 Supreme Court decision that overturned his bid to end automatic citizenship for children born in the United States to parents who are illegal immigrants or temporary visitors.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio drew attention to the issue of visa abuse on X.

"Elaborate birth tourism rings are profiting off the exploitation of America's laws - coaching foreigners to defraud the U.S. visa system, arranging travel and housing, and even forging documents, all to enable foreign nationals to obtain citizenship for their children," he said.

The activity of visa holders worldwide is under review. According to a fact sheet, the department stands ready to revoke the visas of individuals suspected of engaging in or facilitating birth tourism. The goal is to dismantle any networks involved in such abuses and hold them accountable.

Using State Department information and data from other federal agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security, the task force has revoked more than 600 visas in one month.

The federal government and consular officers at U.S. embassies and consulates around the world have reported widespread examples of deception in visa applications, according to the State Department.

It noted a foreign couple who twice lied on visa applications - claiming a conference and a vacation - then gave birth to two children on U.S. soil on separate occasions.

The couple's visas were revoked.

Another foreign national applied for a visa to vacation in Orlando. She instead flew to Los Angeles, where she gave birth five days after her arrival.

Spotlight on Citizenship Rules

In one of the most consequential opinions of the Supreme Court's 2025-2026 term, the justices ruled 6-3 to strike down Trump's executive order that aimed at excluding children of illegal immigrants and temporary visa holders from obtaining U.S. citizenship at birth.

"A child born on American soil and subject to American law was made an American citizen," Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in the majority opinion.

Trump had vowed to ask the high court to rehear the case, although such requests are almost never granted.

"This miscarriage of justice will destroy America if they don't change their absolutely insane decision," the president said at the time.

However, the administration missed the July 27 deadline to file its petition.

Trump's two new executive orders, signed Aug. 6, attempt to limit birthright citizenship by banning birth tourism and expanding the definition of people considered ineligible for birthright citizenship, according to Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy Stephen Miller.

The American Civil Liberties Union and other groups asked a federal judge on Aug. 11 to block enforcement of Trump's new executive orders.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 20:55