Zero Rss

Running The Hormuz Gauntlet: Recruitment Ad Offers Tanker Crews Double Pay To Brave Drone Strikes

Flexport founder and CEO Ryan Petersen posted on X what appears to be a recruitment ad from Singapore-based maritime crewing agency Singhai Marine Services, offering a rare look at the pay and "transit" bonuses available to tanker crews transiting the highly contested Strait of Hormuz.

Singhai Marine is recruiting a full crew to operate a VLCC, or very large crude carrier, through the Strait of Hormuz on a Dubai-Oman route. The one-month contract offers salaries ranging from $1,600 for ordinary seamen to $16,000 for the captain.

The offer also includes:

• A separate high-risk allowance
• A "Hormuz transit bonus" equal to one additional month's full salary
• Tanker experience preferred, with applicants required to accept high-risk deployment

If authentic, the recruitment ad suggests ship operators are having difficulty staffing tankers for Hormuz voyages amid the constant threat of Iranian drone and missile attacks, forcing them to offer substantial hazard bonus.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 13:00

Diesel Crack Spread Explodes To Record As Wall Street Warns Of Refined-Products "Perfect Storm"

Wall Street Warns About "Perfect Storm" Diesel Crunch: 

• Goldman's Daan Struyven Shows Global Diesel Exports Crashing
• Citi's Anthony Yuen Warns: Global Diesel Inventories "Below 5YR Minimum"
• BofA's Francisco Blanch Warns: "Diesel's Perfect Summer Storm" Unfolding 
• Jefferies' Sam Burwell Warns: Hormuz Shock "Manifesting Itself In Cracks, Not Crude" 

Brent crude remains hostage to daily geopolitical developments in the Gulf region more than five months into the conflict, with muted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (read the latest US-Iran wrap) constraining tanker flows and driving refined-product markets to new, dire extremes as they become the focal point of the energy crisis.

Brent briefly fell below $80 a barrel last week as prospects improved for an Iran-Oman deal to reopen the maritime chokepoint, before rebounding toward $90 as negotiations stalled this week.

Hormuz traffic has stabilized at about 10 crossings a day, down from 30 to 40 before the latest escalation. Liquids flows are averaging roughly 4 million barrels a day, well below public estimates of 9 million, according to HSBC analysts.

We earlier cited Jefferies analyst Sam Burwell, who warned clients:

"What this all shows is that global oil-market tightness is manifesting itself in cracks, not crude, at least for now. Wide cracks suggest refining runs should remain strong, however, which is positive for crude. 

By lunchtime Thursday, the front-month US diesel crack spread (HOCL1 on the Terminal) had exceeded the $97 level reached in mid-March, when the US-Iran conflict was just three weeks old, and was closing in on $100. That signals extreme tightness in diesel.

Diesel crack spread hits record high, just shy of $100 https://t.co/pxNKK1OUeR pic.twitter.com/uAciv62yPk

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 13, 2026

Francisco Blanch, head of commodities at Bank of America, warned clients in a note earlier titled "Diesel's Perfect Summer Storm" that the industrial fuel is "materially disrupted in 3 of 4 major regions" around the world.

As we recently warned (see report: The crude reality of oil markets), supply disruptions are amplifying the squeeze on petroleum markets.

Three of the world's four major refining hubs remain impaired for one reason or another.

First, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent military activity has reduced Middle East fuel exports, with the recent Houthi strike on Saudi Arabia's Jazan refinery being the latest example.

Second, record Russian refining disruptions following Ukrainian strikes have removed significant volumes from the global diesel pool. 

Third, fearful of potential domestic shortages, China has yet to restart petroleum product exports to the Asia region. As such, Europe has increasingly relied on record US exports to fill the gap.

Yet those flows are drawing down already tight US inventories, the only major hub open for business, creating a global competition for fuel that is pushing diesel cracks back toward record seasonal highs.

Beyond Ukraine drone-striking Russian energy assets, Moscow has decided to ban diesel exports; yet again, more evidence of dwindling global supplies: 

• Russia Bans Diesel Exports, Assuring Even Higher Prices

One month later, Diesel spreads hit all time high https://t.co/3GROS40xsr

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 13, 2026

Separately, Anthony Yuen, managing director and head of energy strategy at Citi Research, warned clients that global observed diesel inventories are "below the five-year minimum and not substantially lower than this," adding, "The last time inventories were at a similar level was in 2022, when gasoil cracks globally were about $20/bbl lower than currently observed, and they were meaningfully lower in 2018."

Goldman's commodities expert Daan Struyven told clients earlier today:

Since the Iran war began, we have viewed the Hormuz shock as more disruptive for refined products, especially diesel, than for crude.

Near-record prompt diesel margins have already triggered a strong supply response from refiners with spare capacity, including higher utilization and a shift in yields toward diesel. As a result, outright diesel shortages still look unlikely this year.

Struyven showed that global diesel exports are crashing.

Kpler data suggest that Persian Gulf flows are down 80% year over year for diesel, versus 48% for crude.

BofA's Blanch noted, "In short, absent a meaningful supply recovery, the diesel market appears poised to stay tight, volatile, and expensive well into next year."

The clearest signal of how far the energy crisis has spread, even as Brent and WTI remain relatively calm, is now visible in refined-product markets, particularly diesel, where the blowout in crack spreads signals a severe global supply squeeze.

Hormuz Shock "Manifesting Itself In Cracks, Not Crude," Jefferies Says

Brent crude futures held near recent highs of $90 a barrel before fading to around $87 early Thursday morning, as traders awaited progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Stalled US-Iran negotiations and tightening global fuel supplies continued to support prices and concern some top energy experts, who warn of a looming supply shock. 

US-Iran talks remain deadlocked to end the week as the Trump administration maintains its blockade of Iranian ports and Tehran demands compensation for war-related damage. Pakistan, which has served as a mediator, said the broader peace talks had stalled.

Late Wednesday, President Trump wrote in a Truth Social post that the USA has "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz and "I think we will keep it." It's also yet more confirmation that he's opting for economic siege warfare while the US military campaign is on hold. 

Polymarket odds for "US-Iran 60-day negotiation period extended?" currently stand at around 25%, down from 80% one week ago.

//--> //--> US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Yes 25% · No 76%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

So far, Brent crude is headed for a weekly advance of nearly 5% as a near-term resolution to the US-Iran conflict remains murky and Ukrainian and Russian attacks on energy infrastructure tighten oil and, more critically, diesel markets.

Last week, our note titled "Winter Is Coming" for Europe outlined how the energy-stricken continent faces a twin diesel and natural gas crunch.

Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg TV early last week that the global diesel-supply crunch is "what keeps her up at night."

Saxo Markets strategist Charu Chanana said volatility will remain elevated until Hormuz reopens and the outlook for production becomes clearer.

Making matters worse, the International Energy Agency released a report on Wednesday that forecast a 1.8 million-barrel-a-day deficit this quarter, more than double its previous estimate. The agency also warned that elevated prices are beginning to crush demand and projected the widest annual supply shortfall in five years.

Offsetting higher prices was bearish US inventory data showing that crude stockpiles surged by 17.4 million barrels last week, the largest increase since January 2023, as exports weakened and imports from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela increased.

Jefferies analyst Sam Burwell, who specializes in oil, gas and energy infrastructure equities, wrote in a note Wednesday that showed oil-market extremes in three charts:

Three Pictures Worth 1,900 Characters - Oil Market Extremes

We return from an earnings hiatus (and step outside Canada) to show some current extremes in global oil markets. Chinese crude imports bounced a bit in July but remain far below the prior run rate. While crude is well off its highs and never made a historic spike, diesel cracks are far above prior all-time highs (gasoline is strong, too). China remains the wild card, but we think this setup is constructive for crude (and, by extension, the Canadian energy complex).

Chart #1 shows monthly Chinese crude imports. The massive ~5 mmbpd downshift in imports following the Hormuz closure demonstrated the extent of China's demand elasticity. July did see a ~1 mmbpd m/m increase from June's low. With somewhat higher crude prices and fewer vessels moving through Hormuz more recently, we'll see what August and beyond bring. However, we note that a return to the ~11 mmbpd five-year average would imply ~3 mmbpd of incremental demand.

Chart #3 shows that while diesel and gasoline prices are, of course, elevated, they are much closer to, or within, prior historical highs. Notably, clean-product prices in 2008 were similar to today's on a nominal basis (and therefore higher in real terms).

What this all shows is that global oil-market tightness is manifesting itself in cracks, not crude, at least for now. Wide cracks suggest refining runs should remain strong, however, which is positive for crude. While US refinery utilization dipped w/w, it remains near 20-year seasonal highs.

China is the crude-demand wild card, but with such wide cracks, one wonders how long it will be before the Chinese begin importing more crude to export more refined products (or simply replenish their own product/petchem stocks). Imports in the coming months will be telling as to how elastic China's buying remains.

In short, unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon and fuel supplies recover meaningfully, the focus will remain on refined-product markets, particularly diesel. The critical industrial fuel is being squeezed globally, and as Bank of America's commodities team warned, "the diesel market appears poised to stay tight, volatile, and expensive well into next year."

Professional subscribers can read a lot more energy content at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 12:50

Treasury Department Ends Ownership Reporting For US Small Businesses

Authored by Owen Evans via The Epoch Times,

The Treasury Department on Tuesday finalized a rule permanently exempting U.S. companies and individuals from reporting beneficial ownership information to authorities, rolling back Biden-era Corporate Transparency Act requirements.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies before the Senate Committee on Appropriations in Washington on June 3, 2026. Madalina Kilroy /The Epoch Times

"Today's action is a victory for common sense and American small businesses," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement on Aug. 11.

"President [Donald] Trump promised to cut red tape, and this final rule delivers. Treasury is eliminating a burdensome reporting requirement for millions of law-abiding business owners without compromising our national security."

The original rules, implemented under the Biden administration, had applied to tens of millions of mostly small businesses.

The Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) is the 2021 law requiring shell companies to disclose owners, and the Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) is the enforcer.

The new policy means that U.S. companies and U.S individuals no longer have to tell FinCEN who owns them.

However, foreign reporting companies will have to disclose beneficial ownership information for foreign individuals, the department said in a statement.

The Treasury Department said that FinCEN will also delete previously reported information by Americans from the government's beneficial ownership information database.

FinCEN had previously implemented rules requiring certain companies to report beneficial ownership data as part of anti-corruption and anti-money laundering efforts backed by lawmakers and the Treasury Department under former President Joe Biden.

The latest move adopts the exemptions set out in the interim final rule issued in March 2025, part of a broader push by the Trump administration. At the time, the Treasury announced that it would not enforce the CTA against "U.S. citizens, domestic reporting companies, or their beneficial owners."

Under the beneficial ownership information scheme, small businesses had to submit personal information about their beneficial owners, including name, address, birth date, and other information from a piece of identification such as a driver's license.

"Having a centralized database of beneficial ownership information will eliminate critical vulnerabilities in our financial system and allow us to tackle the scourge of illicit finance enabled by opaque corporate structures," then-Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement about it in 2024.

Estimates suggested that the reporting requirement would have applied to approximately 32 million businesses, including corporations and limited liability companies.

Failure to comply would have come with sizable penalties.

Businesses and their owners faced civil penalties of up to $591 for each day they did not file. They could have also endured $10,000 in criminal fines and faced up to two years in prison if regulators found that businesses submitted false information or willfully did not file, correct, or update beneficial ownership information reports.

In May, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) released a report that recommended that the Treasury identify potential actions to address the risks posed by the domestic reporting company and U.S. person exemptions.

"Illicit actors frequently use corporate structures such as shell companies to launder criminal proceeds. These structures can be exploited because they allow the identities of people who benefit from or control them to be hidden from law enforcement," it said.

It also said that Congress and law enforcement should be provided with "highly useful information that addresses these risks."

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), the top Democrat on the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, said rolling back the reporting requirements increased the risk of organized criminal activity.

"This is a gift to cartels, criminals, and U.S. adversaries that exploit shell companies to move millions through our financial system," she said in an Aug. 11 post on X.

"Secretary Bessent should testify in front of Congress to explain his decision to put our national security at risk."

Andrew Moran and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 12:40

LIS Technologies' New $6.2M Oak Ridge Building Is The Missing Link In Nano's Fuel-To-Reactor Stack

LIS Technologies just bought the building that makes the Nano Nuclear vertical-integration story look more like a fuel cycle, instead of a slide deck.

The check for $6.2 million purchased K-1580, a 37,803-square-foot, three-story, newly renovated facility at 150 Americus Way on the historic K-25 Enrichment Site of East Tennessee's Technology Park Heritage Center in Oak Ridge, best known as the birth place of the Manhattan Project. It sits next to LIST’s leased K-1330 test-demonstration hall and complements the 206-acre “LIST Island” parcel where the company plans a $1.4 billion commercial laser-enrichment plant.

Jay Yu, Executive Chairman and CEO of LIST as well as Founder and Chairman of the publicly traded Nano Nuclear Energy, called Oak Ridge "the Silicon Valley of Nuclear." For once the geography matches the org chart.

The stack Nano and LIST have been drawing looks like this:

Feedstock → laser enrichment → deconversion → fabrication → reactors → transport → space.

K-1580 is where the middle of that chain is supposed to live.

Christo Liebenberg, LIST president and co-founder, said the building will host a pilot plant for the company’s SMILE program (Stable and Medical Isotope Laser Enrichment), office space for more than 100 additional employees, industrialization of critical laser-enrichment components, and a UF6 deconversion pilot.

COO Lloyd Jollay was more specific about why deconversion is the point:

“The facility also offers dedicated laboratory space for investigating UF6 deconversion processes. Integrating deconversion capabilities with uranium enrichment will create a more comprehensive fuel cycle solution and address key needs expressed by a number of advanced reactor developers.”

Those reactor developers are not hypothetical, they sit in the same building.

Nano’s lineup is KRONOS (stationary high-temperature gas-cooled MMR, now in NRC construction-permit territory via the University of Illinois deployment), ZEUS (solid-core battery reactor), and LOKI (portable, being prepped for space). Nano bought Kronos and Loki out of Ultra Safe Nuclear’s bankruptcy at the end of 2024, then hired Ameresco to engineer them toward commercialization. The fuel those machines need is LEU for the existing US fleet and HALEU for the SMRs. That is exactly what LIST’s CRISLA-3G laser process is being built to make.

The two companies already have the contract language. Nano invested in LIST in 2024 with an enriched-uranium supply agreement. Under the collaboration, Nano is supposed to develop the upstream capabilities to feed LIST UF6, then take LIST’s enriched UF6 into an integrated fuel-manufacturing process so the same molecules can land in Nano’s cores, or be sold into the wider industry. Nano is also a key subcontractor on LIST’s DOE award: LIST was one of six names on the up-to-$3.4 billion LEU Enrichment Acquisition IDIQ, with Nano bringing the licensing and advanced-reactor paperwork. They are related parties through overlapping ownership and officers. Yu is the overlap that matters.

Put K-1580 into that map and the campus reads left-to-right:

1. K-1330 (leased demo) - LIST’s test loop. Tennessee already issued a radioactive-material license so they can bring in UF6 and run the laser. NRC engagement for classified-handling procedures is underway on the demo.
2. K-1580 (just bought) - SMILE medical/stable isotopes, UF6 deconversion pilot, Phase II enrichment in a prototypical environment, component manufacturing, 100 desks. The deconversion step is what turns enriched hexafluoride into something a fabricator, or a KRONOS, can actually use.
3. LIST Island (206 acres, former Duct Island) - the commercial LEU-3 / Project F.U.E.L. hall. Groundbreaking still targeted for 2026, subject to licensing, permitting, and a final investment decision. Commercial operations still “before 2030.”
4. Nano’s other pillars - fuel fabrication (still the stated intent, no site announced), Secured Transportation Services for moving the material, and NANO Nuclear Space, which wants ZEUS and LOKI in cis-lunar power and eventually propulsion.

Medical isotopes are not a distraction in this narrative. Hospitals need precursor stable and enriched isotopes; quantum and advanced electronics want the same separation physics. SMILE lets the laser earn its keep on non-weapons-grade product while the uranium line walks up the TRL ladder. LIST says CRISLA-3G is at TRL-4, about 75% of the way to TRL-5, and moving toward TRL-6. Phase 2 of the pilot is still the gate before anyone should pretend they have commercial enrichment economics. That is their language, not ours.

What this week’s check actually does is nail a street address onto the middle of the stack. Enrichment at K-1330, deconversion and isotopes at K-1580, commercial plant on LIST Island, reactors at Nano, logistics at STS, space at NNS. One chairman, one Oak Ridge campus, and a fuel molecule that is supposed to never leave the family.

Whether the NRC, DOE, and the fabricator that does not yet have a building cooperate is the next chapter, but at least the org chart is no longer the bottleneck. The physical campus is starting to look like the chart.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 12:20

Paramount Mulling California Exodus Amid Antitrust Scrutiny

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

Paramount Skydance could be the next major company to leave California as the media giant faces intensifying antitrust scrutiny over its purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery.

Makan Delrahim, Paramount’s top legal officer, said the Los Angeles-based company is “committed” to staying in California.

But he also noted that the company has “a fiduciary duty to shareholders.”

“You have to take a look at the business environment and look to see what’s best for not only the community and the business,” he said at Politico’s The California Agenda: Sacramento Summit on Aug. 12.

“And ultimately, you know, go to the place where you’re wanted.”

In recent years, scores of American companies - including SpaceX, X, Chevron, and Oracle - have shifted their headquarters or operations out of California and into other states. KB Home, Public Storage, Yamaha Motor, and D-Wave Quantum have been the latest businesses to relocate.

Paramount secured its $111 billion purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery earlier this year, beating Netflix for the acquisition of the legacy entertainment empire. Warner Bros. shareholders approved the offer in April.

But Paramount chose last month to pause its acquisition in the face of litigation from California and 11 other state attorneys general to block the merger. According to a court filing, both sides agreed to suspend the merger until June 2027 or until a judge rules on the case.

The states say they believe Paramount would obtain too much power over the news, entertainment, and sports media industry by acquiring Warner Bros.

“From the workers and artists who bring stories to life to the families who buy tickets at the box office, Paramount’s illegal takeover of Warner Bros. is a bad deal for all those who count on a competitive entertainment industry,” New York Attorney General Letitia James said in a July 24 statement.

“Halting this merger while our case proceeds is a critical victory in our efforts to uphold the law and protect the film and television industries. I look forward to continuing our case to stop this illegal merger.”

Paramount/Skydance Chairman and CEO David Ellison has pushed back against these claims, writing in an op-ed for The New York Times earlier this month that he does not aspire to lead these companies “to bend their newsrooms” to his views.

“I believe this fight is not really about market share,” Ellison wrote.

“I believe a plainer worry sits beneath the briefs and the news releases: the news. The issue is whether I can be trusted as a steward of Warner’s CNN. There has been speculation about my politics, my loyalties, my intentions.”

Delrahim says the legal efforts are harming employment opportunities.

“This merger is actually going to be good—not only for California—it’ll be good for America,” he said.

“I would love to see every policymaker who cares about jobs, who cares about high-paying jobs, who cares about union jobs—in California—speak on this merger.”

While the deal is enduring regulatory hurdles domestically, Paramount has received approval from the UK, the European Union, and other foreign markets.

New York Attorney General Letitia James leaves the Walter E. Hoffman United States Courthouse following an arraignment hearing in Norfolk, Va., on Oct. 24, 2025. Win McNamee/Getty Images

Despite U.S. legal challenges, Warner Bros. is confident that Paramount’s buyout will close.

“We have every expectation the transaction will close, and the company will be performing even better than the plan that we presented to [Paramount] when we did our deal,” Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav said during an Aug. 6 earnings call with analysts.

Market Skepticism

Shares of Paramount rose by about 0.6 percent midweek, but they are still down more than 28 percent year-to-date, trading at less than $10.

Wall Street analysts have turned bearish on the stock, with a consensus “reduce” rating, according to MarketBeat. Weiss Ratings was the latest firm to have a “sell” rating. Several firms lowered their targets to “sell,” “hold,” or “underperform.”

Market analyst Gary Gambino said that although he is confident the deal will close, the true challenge will be whether Paramount can deliver on its proposed $6 billion in synergies.

“At least some of this must be achieved to be successful, as both companies are struggling today on a stand-alone basis with their declining TV network businesses mostly offsetting growing streaming revenues,” Gambino said in a research note.

“If no synergies are delivered the current PSKY price is probably fair, but with all $6 billion of synergies, the shares would be worth close to $23.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 12:00

​​​​​​​"Abolish NYSE Stock Exchange," Says China-Based Hasan Piker Producer, Mamdani Campaign Alum

Far-left influencer Hasan Piker's China-based producer, Eric Hovagim, who also worked on socialist Zohran Mamdani's campaign, has said on recent podcasts and streams that he wants to "ban the American stock market" and has boasted about his relationship with a known Beijing-based propagandist waging an informational war on the US. 

Hovagim discussed his close friendship with China-based Marxist billionaire Roy Singham, whose network of revolutionary NGOs has been accused of promoting pro-Beijing and communist propaganda through what some describe as a possible foreign subversion network.

Via Free Press:

Taken together, these revolutionary comments from Hovagim merely point to a far-left agenda, suggesting that the Democratic Socialists of America are not truly focused on affordability, Palestine, climate change, opposition to data centers, or whatever the hottest issue of the day may be. Instead, they appear more focused on dismantling the foundations of America's capitalist system.

 

Stu Smith of the Manhattan Institute wrote on X:

Hasan Piker's China-Based Producer Wants to "Communize the United States"

I don't think it has fully sunk in that Hasan Piker employs a China-based producer who helps make his content and produce his interviews, is an open China apologist, worked on Zohran Mamdani campaign videos, and says he wants to "communize the United States of America."

He says Chinese surveillance has made his life materially better, calls much criticism of Beijing American propaganda, says there has never been a good U.S. president, wants the New York Stock Exchange abolished, and openly wonders whether America needs "a whole new system."

🚨 Hasan Piker’s China-Based Producer Wants to “Communize the United States”

I don’t think it has fully sunk in that Hasan Piker employs a China-based producer who helps make his content and produce his interviews, is an open China apologist, worked on Zohran Mamdani campaign… pic.twitter.com/QT8drxVUks

— Stu Smith (@thestustustudio) August 11, 2026

On another stream, Hovagim told his followers: "I'm friends with Roy Singham. He's dope."

Hovagim laughed off the idea that Singham has secret ties to the Communist Party of China, before acknowledging that Singham "is friends with a lot of them."

Hovagim boasted about his ties with Singham's wife, Code Pink cofounder Jodie Evans. He called her "f**king dope." 

"Texted her when the Treasury subpoenas arrived… She told me not to worry because they do this shit to us literally all the time," Hovagim said, referring to Jodie Evans, Code Pink cofounder, getting subpoenaed for a trip to Cuba to visit the communist in Havana. 

Hovagim continued to boast about his Singham ties, saying, "The whole squad out here, we all know him." 

He then praises Evans as "the real deal," citing her relationships with Fidel Castro, Hugo Chávez, and Nicolás Maduro's son.

Manhattan Institute analyst Smith commented, "The most revealing part may be how ordinary all of this appears within Hovagim's social and political world. Singham is not described as a distant donor or shadowy figure. He is a friend whom "the whole squad" knows, while Evans is someone Hovagim can text directly when subpoenas arrive." 

🚨 Hasan Piker’s Producer Says “The Whole Squad” Knows Roy Singham, Admits Singham Is “Friends With a Lot” of Chinese Communist Party Members

This is Eric Hovagim, a producer and researcher for Hasan Piker, discussing his personal friendship with billionaire activist funder Roy… pic.twitter.com/S312gpMpei

— Stu Smith (@thestustustudio) July 30, 2026

Foreign policy investigator Adam Kredo of The Washington Free Beacon revealed earlier this week that Arc of Justice, a nonprofit operated by Code Pink cofounder Medea Benjamin, was ordered to cease operations after years of missing tax filings and unanswered questions about what happened to $51 million in reported assets.  

"The silence from Arc of Justice raises unanswered questions about a foundation that has long served as the financial backbone for a network of radical advocacy groups tied to Benjamin and her Code Pink cofounder, Jodie Evans," Kredo wrote in the report. 

Far-left extremist Hasan Piker & Jodie Evans in Cuba: It's all one big network of radicals ... 

Fox News' Asra Nomani recently broke the story that Singham is at the center of a Justice Department criminal probe: A federal grand jury is investigating China-based tech tycoon Neville Roy Singham over alleged financial improprieties involving $278 million that investigators say moved through his financial network over the past decade.

FIRST ON FOX: A federal grand jury is investigating China-based tech tycoon Neville Roy Singham over alleged financial improprieties involving $278 million that investigators say moved through his financial network over the past decade.

Federal investigators are examining… pic.twitter.com/cqqt9QthU6

— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 29, 2026

Interesting https://t.co/HHh8RcM3gI

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 29, 2026

Risk intelligence platform Sayari shows Evan is Arc of Justice's registered agent and serves as the bridge to a broader network of entities, including:

• Codepink Action Fund
• Codepink: Women for Peace
• Environmentalism Through Inspiration and Nonviolent Action
• The MEP Foundation
• MP & JK, LLC
• Gateways and Passages, LLC
• Agrarian Land Trust
• Schumacher Center for a New Economics

The chart's main takeaway is that Arc of Justice is connected through Evans to several far-left Code Pink-related and other nonprofit or corporate entities.

According to investigative reports (e.g., New York Times, 2023), Singham has worked closely with pro-CCP propaganda networks targeting the US.

From NYT:

What is less known, and is hidden amid a tangle of nonprofit groups and shell companies, is that Mr. Singham works closely with the Chinese government media machine and is financing its propaganda worldwide.

From a think tank in Massachusetts to an event space in Manhattan, from a political party in South Africa to news organizations in India and Brazil, The Times tracked hundreds of millions of dollars to groups linked to Mr. Singham that mix progressive advocacy with Chinese government talking points.

Bitcoin Policy Institute documented one of those alleged Singham foreign influence operations: 

The takeaway is that the socialist movement in America wants to destroy the nation from within, which could be linked to foreign subversion networks operating within the nonprofit sphere:

• Hasan Piker Says Quiet Part Out Loud, Maps Radical Left NGO Network To China-Based Marxist Financier
• Feds Subpoena Hasan Piker, CodePink Cofounder Over "Humanitarian" Trip To Communist Cuba
• Feds Nab Alleged Member Of "Sprawling" Cuban Communist Subversion Network Linked To Hasan Piker's Havana Trip
• "Americans Deserve To Know": State Dept. Report Details Cuban Espionage, Subversion, And Role In Rise Of Far Left
• Bombshell Report Exposes Lefty NGOs Funding A Children's Charity Tied To Terror Network

Related:

• "We're Here To Destroy The White Race": Democratic Socialist Of America Hero Declares War On West

...and Bernie Sanders and much of the Democratic Party have welcomed these socialists and Marxists into the party's coalition. That embrace has become an absolute gold mine for opposition-research teams on the GOP side, which can draw on a steady stream of inflammatory statements from socialists and other far-left revolutionaries whose views remain far outside mainstream American opinion.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 11:40

Tehran's Houthi Proxies Attack Saudi Aramco Again, Crude Spikes, As Iran's Military Command To Be 'More Aggressive' Summary

• Saudi Aramco attacked again: Houthi drone strikes on a Saudi refinery sent oil prices higher.
• Hormuz stalemate & standoff: US says it can sustain the Iranian port blockade indefinitely.
• Iran digs in: Tehran appears prepared for a prolonged war of attrition.
• Hard-liners rise: Iran reshuffled senior security leadership toward a more aggressive posture.
• Diplomacy dead-end: Iran says the U.S. has miscalculated, while talks remain deadlocked.

*  *  *

Attack on Saudi Aramco Facility Sees Crude Spike

Oil prices have spiked Thursday on emerging reports that the Houthis have freshly targeted an Aramco refinery in Saudi Arabia's Jizan with two drones, according to regional Saba News Agency.

It seems this is part of Iran's 'counter-pressure' playing book against Washington and its Gulf allies, given the Houthis have long been a proxy arm of Iran. The Houthi group is in the midst of a 'siege for siege' war on Saudi shipping and energy. 

The Hormuz stalemate is meanwhile continuing, given War Secretary Pete Hegseth now says that the US military can maintain a blockade on Iranian ports for as long as needed.

“Indefinitely the United States Navy can maintain a blockade like that because we’ll rotate ships in and out, as we have, and we’ll continue to,” Hegseth told reporters. But Iran is also vowing to outlast and keep up the military pressure, enforcing its own strait management protocol based on the Oman deal.

Attrition Game Outlasting US Politics

Top adviser to the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, has been signaling Iran's more aggressive stance in media appearances this week, also following a significant reshuffling of top military leadership.

"Look, we have to attain deterrence so that the enemy never dares to attack us, so we can live with security," Naqdi said in an interview with PBS. "One way is to prolong this war until we get to the next term of the presidency and cause attrition, so that if anyone else wants to attack Iran, they will know there is a cost."

Alluding to the recent military reorganization, he described: "Whenever the conditions are favorable and the order is issued, we must be able to take the operation into enemy territory" - while contrasting the approach with a pre-war doctrine "primarily based on defense and the preservation of the country."

via The Australian

Military.com underscores that "Iran has reorganized its military to be more aggressive abroad as talks on ending the war with the U.S. remain mired in stalemate, a sign that Tehran is preparing for a protracted era of regional conflict."

As a reminder, this is after Tehran's obvious pivot away from negotiations, and toward a more permanent state of military resistance. The Wall Street Journal previously pointed out: "Now, the new supreme leader, Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, is putting his own stamp on the country’s national-security policy amid a confrontation with the U.S. that could last months or even years."

"Seasoned Hardliners" in Command

According to more of the analysis:

In a sweeping overhaul of the government’s top echelon on Sunday and Monday, Iran named seasoned hard-liners to run the country’s security policies and institutions of repression.

It marked the most significant government reshuffle under Mojtaba Khamenei, who hasn’t been seen in public since the war began. U.S. intelligence agencies say he is alive but severely injured, and top Iranian cabinet members say they have never met him since he took office. Iranian officials say he was injured but in good health.

Analysts said the appointments signaled Khamenei’s determination to hold fast in a showdown with President Trump, who is seeking concessions on Iran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. 

“The regime is preparing for a more confrontational posture at home and abroad,” said Kasra Aarabi, an expert on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a powerful paramilitary force, at United Against Nuclear Iran, a policy organization that opposes Iran’s government.  

And some fresh insight from Michael Stephens, a senior associate fellow at the UK-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI):

Nearly six months since the beginning of the war, Iran is now convinced that the US is not willing to conduct a ground invasion. “That existential threat is gone,” Stephens said. “So they want to up the tempo and maybe make the pain a little bit more acute for President Trump. And the best way to do that is to drag this out.”

Prior to the US-Israeli attack on February 28, the widely held belief was that the Iranian government would readily collapse, after enduring months of civil disobedience and unrest during major demonstrations in late December and January.

“That doesn’t seem to be the case now, and I’m not really sure the US has any tools in the bag to force the regime to do what they want,” the analyst said. Iranians can “live in this stalemate at the moment – it hurts them, but it’s not existential, and I think that’s the problem the US has now”.

Iranian leadership continues boasting of squaring up against the much larger American foe...

❗️ Iran says the US military is weaker than expected

“The longer this war continues, the more experience we gain.

We have never had a war like this to gain real experience and learn how to fight America.

Over these five months, we have learned this. We have also seen that the… pic.twitter.com/Yfz5T2pIkj

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 12, 2026 Iran: US Has "Long Miscalculated"

In follow-up, and as if confirming all of the above, Iranian Brigadier General Rasoul Sanaei-Rad has on Thursday said Iran will act more aggressively in the future, the Fars news agency reported.

"We stood firm in the recent war and, God willing, we will stand firmer and more aggressively in a possible future war," said Sanaei-Rad, a political adviser in the office of the supreme leader. He noted that Iran’s "enemy" is seeking to fracture the country through economic pressure, but that its plan did not succeed.

Below: Mohsen Rezaei, one of the longest-serving figures in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has returned to the heart of Tehran’s national security establishment, after Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appointed him secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and adviser to Iran's supreme leader Mohsen Rezaei, via Reuters

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also chimed on in on Thursday with a similar theme of Washington miscalculation. He asserted that the United States has "has long miscalculated due to intelligence failures," especially when launching its war on Iran.

American military actions in the Strait of Hormuz were "an even bigger miscalculation," Araghchi stated on X. "Worse than fake news is fake intelligence," the foreign minister said, perhaps in mockery of Trump.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 11:40

Private Credit's Problems Just Got Real

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

For most of this year, the private credit story I’ve written about (and warned about) has been about investors trying to get their money out. Now the loans themselves appear to be cracking.

The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that defaults across several of the largest publicly traded private credit funds have climbed to their highest levels in at least five years, while watchlists of troubled borrowers are simultaneously expanding and investor returns are deteriorating. In other words, the private credit mess I’ve been documenting since last year is entering what could be a far more important phase.

Until now, defenders of the industry could make a relatively straightforward argument. Yes, investors were requesting redemptions, and yes, some funds were limiting withdrawals, but the underlying credit portfolios were supposedly fine. That argument is getting considerably harder to make.

According to the Journal’s analysis, the percentage of nonaccruing loans at funds overseen by Ares, Golub Capital, Blue Owl and Blackstone has reached its highest level since at least 2021. At Blue Owl Capital Corp., nonaccruals reached 2.8% during the second quarter, the highest level in at least five years.

Nonperforming loans at the other three funds examined by the Journal also reached five year highs, surpassing even the levels seen in 2023, when the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes were putting enormous pressure on leveraged borrowers.

And it isn’t just defaults. Private credit funds managed by Ares, Golub and KKR have also reported increases this year in the number of borrowers showing deteriorating performance. Their watchlists are now at their highest levels since roughly 2022 and 2023.

That matters because watchlists are effectively the waiting room for future credit problems. Not every company on one will default, and different managers use different criteria, but when nonaccruals are already rising at the same time the pipeline of potentially troubled borrowers is expanding, it becomes increasingly difficult to dismiss the deterioration as a handful of isolated accidents.

Even Golub Capital co CEO David Golub acknowledged the obvious, telling the Journal, “We are clearly in a credit cycle.”

No shit. And in my opinion, the defaults aren’t going to stop anytime soon.

This is important because it adds another leg to a story I have been following for almost a year. I started warning about private credit last October, when I listed it as one of ten areas of the market I wanted absolutely nothing to do with heading into 2026. Since then, the warning signs have arrived with almost comical regularity.

For months I’ve been arguing that investors are ignoring a growing list of warning signs across the economy and financial markets. Stocks remain in what I believe is a historic bubble. The Federal Reserve remains trapped between stubborn inflation and an equity market that still looks significantly overvalued. Consumers are exhausted and buried under debt, while the bond market continues calling bullshit on the broader narrative.

Private credit fits neatly into that picture because while public markets have spent much of 2026 behaving as though risk has been abolished, underneath the surface investors have been trying to pull billions of dollars out of private credit funds.

I’ve spent much of this year documenting that process. Blue Owl restricted redemptions. Blackstone faced record withdrawal requests. BlackRock limited withdrawals. Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater capped redemptions. Stone Ridge gated investors. Apollo and Ares restricted withdrawals. Barings followed. By June, redemption requests at Cliffwater had climbed to roughly 17%, while Apollo once again limited withdrawals from its $25 billion Apollo Debt Solutions fund after investors requested redemptions equal to 16.8% of outstanding shares.

So we already knew there was a liquidity problem. What the latest data suggests is that we increasingly have a credit problem sitting underneath it. And those two problems can feed each other.

Private credit works particularly well when investors are content to leave their money alone. The basic mismatch is not complicated. Investors want periodic liquidity while funds own loans to private companies that don’t trade continuously and may be difficult to sell at anything resembling their stated valuation during periods of stress.

As long as relatively few investors request their money back, everything works. When everybody heads for the door, redemption caps kick in. That’s what they’re designed to do. The uncomfortable question is what happens if investors keep asking for their money back quarter after quarter while the underlying loans simultaneously deteriorate.

As defaults rise, funds have to recognize losses or mark down loans. Returns deteriorate. Investors have less reason to tolerate illiquidity, more of them request redemptions and fundraising becomes more difficult. That matters because private credit has become an important refinancing mechanism for leveraged companies. If less capital enters precisely when borrowers need to refinance, weak companies face higher borrowing costs, worse terms or potentially no refinancing at all.

Perhaps the most interesting part of the Journal’s reporting is not simply that defaults are rising. It’s when they’re rising. The U.S. economy has not fallen into some catastrophic recession. Economic activity remains relatively robust, yet private credit stress is already increasing.

If borrowers are increasingly landing on watchlists and loans are increasingly going nonaccrual while the economy is still holding together, what happens if economic growth rolls over? What happens if inflation prevents the Fed from delivering the kind of rate cuts heavily indebted borrowers want?

Then there is software. The Journal notes that software companies make up 20% or more of the loans in many private credit funds. This is something I’ve been writing about since March, when the Journal previously reported that private credit’s exposure to struggling software companies was significantly larger than advertised.

So far, many of the bad loans showing up are concentrated elsewhere, including healthcare businesses and companies affected by higher oil prices. But software remains the elephant in the room. Private equity spent years buying software companies because recurring revenue, high margins and predictable growth supposedly made them ideal leveraged assets. Private credit financed a lot of those transactions. Then AI showed up.

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The concern isn’t that every software company suddenly disappears. It is that the growth rates and valuations underpinning years of leveraged transactions may have been based on assumptions that no longer hold. If AI compresses margins, reduces pricing power or forces investors to assign lower multiples to software businesses, lenders don’t need every borrower to collapse. They merely need enough companies to start missing the projections upon which their leverage was based.

Meanwhile, the economics that attracted investors to private credit are becoming less compelling. Private credit funds routinely produced annual returns of 10% or better in previous years, according to the Journal. Today, even stronger funds are struggling to produce 7%. One troubled KKR managed fund lost 6.55% during the 12 months through June after losing 9.17% in the previous period.

That creates an obvious question. Why exactly should investors accept limited liquidity, opaque marks and growing credit risk if the return premium they receive for doing so keeps shrinking?

This is why I think looking at the latest default figures in isolation misses the larger story. I’ve been tracking this deterioration since October 2025. Since then we’ve watched markdowns appear, redemption requests surge, funds cap withdrawals, investors return the following quarter asking for even more of their money and concerns emerge about the industry’s enormous software exposure.

Now defaults across several major private credit funds have reached five year highs while watchlists of troubled borrowers are expanding. Any one of these things can be explained away. Taken together, they constitute a trend, and the trend isn’t improving.

Private credit hasn’t really been stress tested at its current scale. The asset class exploded during an extraordinary period of cheap money, enormous private equity activity and relentless investor demand for yield. Now dealmaking has slowed, portfolio companies are missing expectations, defaults are rising, watchlists are expanding, returns are declining and investors are simultaneously asking for billions of dollars back.

For nearly a year, every new crack in private credit has been dismissed as isolated. First it was markdowns. Then record redemption requests. Then redemption caps and repeated redemption caps. Now nonaccruals are reaching five year highs.

I don’t think the defaults are done. And if they continue rising while redemption requests remain elevated, private credit could find itself confronting both sides of the problem at exactly the wrong time, with investors wanting their money back while borrowers increasingly can’t pay theirs.

That’s when this story gets considerably uglier.

Tracking the private credit meltdown:

• August 11, 2026 - WSJ notes that defaults continue to grow to five year highs

• June 23, 2026 - Apollo gates investors for another quarter after they sought to redeem 16.8% of outstanding shares

• June 3, 2026 - Cliffwater redemptions hit 17% and Partners redemptions hit nearly 10%

• April 6, 2026 - Barings caps redemptions at 5% after investors seek to withdraw 11.3% in Q1

• April 2, 2026 - Blue Owl hit with “unprecedented” withdrawal requests

• March 31, 2026 - WSJ reports that software exposure among private credit funds is larger than disclosed

• March 27, 2026 - Cracks in private credit reach UBS Real Estate fund, forced to suspend withdrawals

• March 24, 2026 - Ares restricts withdrawals on its Strategic Income Fund after redemption requests hit 11.6%

• March 23, 2026 - Apollo caps withdrawals on its $25 billion Apollo Debt Solutions vehicle after redemptions hit 11%

• March 19, 2026 - Stone Ridge’s Alternative Lending Risk Premium Fund gates redemptions after overwhelming redemption requests

• March 16, 2026 - Apollo co-president says that “all” marks in parts of the private markets industry are “wrong”

• March 11, 2026 - Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater cap redemptions in $8 billion, and $33 billion funds, respectively

• March 6, 2026 - BlackRock begins limiting withdrawals from its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund

• March 3, 2026 - Blackstone faces “record” redemptions from its flagship private credit vehicle, investors sought to redeem 7.9% of fund’s $82B in assets

• February 19, 2026 - Blue Owl restricts redemptions from its retail private credit fund

• January 26, 2026 - Blackrock takes 19% markdowns on TCP Capital Corp.

• December 17, 2025 - Blue Owl walks away from $10 billion data center deal for Oracle

• October 15, 2025 - QTR warns private credit is one of 10 areas of the market that I would avoid heading into 2026

 

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Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 11:20

Massive Blast Rocks Italian Munitions Plant At Heart Of Europe's Ammo Supply Chain

A massive explosion has been reported at a major Italian manufacturer of medium- and large-caliber ammunition, formerly known as Simmel Difesa. The plant operates in Colleferro and Anagni, near Rome.

Local Italian outlet Sky TG24 reports: 

Fire and explosion at Colleferro, in the facility of the former Simmel Difesa, currently owned by KNDS Ammo Italy. The company, located in the Quarto Chilometro area, along via Latina, between Colleferro and Artena, produces medium- and large-caliber ammunition for land and naval defense, as well as solid fuels for aerospace launch vehicles. 

The incident is said to have occurred in the powder pressing department. A loud boom was distinctly heard by residents in the area, triggering the alarm.

Incendio ed esplosione a Colleferro, nello stabilimento dell'ex Simmel Difesa, attualmente di proprietà della KNDS Ammo Italy. L'azienda, che si trova nell'area del Quarto Chilometro, lungo via Latina, tra Colleferro e Artena, produce munizioni di medio e grosso calibro per la… pic.twitter.com/fa7NaSFFtA

— Sky tg24 (@SkyTG24) August 13, 2026

Separately, local media outlet Italia 24H Live posted footage on X that appears to capture the moment the explosion rocked KNDS Ammo Italy. 

Incendio ed esplosione a Colleferro, nello stabilimento dell'ex Simmel Difesa, attualmente di proprietà della KNDS Ammo Italy. L'azienda, che si trova nell'area del Quarto Chilometro, lungo via Latina, tra Colleferro e Artena, produce munizioni di medio e grosso calibro per la… pic.twitter.com/fa7NaSFFtA

— Sky tg24 (@SkyTG24) August 13, 2026

For context, KNDS Ammo Italy produces: 

• Complete ammunition ranging from 25mm to 155mm
• Naval rounds, particularly 76mm and 127mm ammunition for Leonardo/Oto Melara guns
• Medium-caliber ammunition for land, naval and air-defense applications
• Artillery ammunition, including 155mm shells
• Propellant powders and charges
• Explosives and warheads
• Proximity and programmable fuzes
• Combustible cartridge cases and metal components
• Missile components
• Ammunition inspection, refurbishment and demilitarization services

 

Developments remain scant, and officials have yet to disclose the cause of the explosion, the extent of the damage or which production lines, if any, were affected. Against a backdrop of elevated concern over the Russia-Ukraine conflict's expanding geographic footprint, the explosion warrants scrutiny. Officials have yet to disclose whether the blast was linked to sabotage or hostile action. 

Ending the streak? 

KNDS Ammo Italy is also Italy's largest producer of medium- and large-caliber ammunition and a preferred supplier for Leonardo/Oto Melara naval guns.

Any supply disruption would have great exposure to: 

• 76mm and 127mm naval ammunition, including programmable and proximity-fuzed rounds used for air and missile defense
• Specialized anti-air and anti-drone ammunition
• 155mm ammunition and modular propellant charges
• Fuzes, explosives and missile components supplied to other weapons manufacturers

Let's get back to the US, where, in late 2025, Accurate Energetic Systems, a key defense contractor and manufacturer of high explosives for the military, suffered a massive explosion.  

Stockpiles and potentially other KNDS plants could cover any outage at KNDS Ammo Italy. A prolonged disruption affecting explosives, propellant or fuze production would be more serious because alternative ammunition must be qualified for specific guns and fire-control systems. That process can take many months. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 11:00

All Of Iran's Weapons Today Are Domestic, Missile Production Exceeds Usage: IRGC Official

At a moment US officials as well as media headlines have been voicing alarm over depleted US missile stockpiles - something which President Trump sought to bat down as false - Iranian leaders have been busy boasting that their domestic defense production has not only kept pace but even expanded on the local production front.

Mohammad Reza Naqdi, Senior Advisor to the IRGC Commander-in-Chief, has been featured in state media as claiming that the production rate of ballistic missiles exceeds their operational launch rate, which comes on the heels of Tehran saying that it used the ceasefire with the US - which stretched from April into the summer months - to boost its weapons arsenal.

Naqdi asserted in a state television broadcast this week: "We are currently producing, and this process is unending." Naqdi warned further that "The enemy should not assume that Iran’s missile stockpiles will run out one day."

Iranian state media image

He also said: "There are many capabilities we have not deployed because we are managing the war with missile power."

Prior US (and Israeli) bombing campaigns since the start of Operation Epic Fury took direct aim at Iran's defense industrial sector. While it can be estimated that perhaps dozens or possibly even hundreds of missile sites as well as manufacturing locations were hit, damaged, and destroyed - Iranian officials say that hundreds more are still intact, scattered across the country.

Citing Naqdi's words further, Iran Wire writes:

He added that Iran does not rely solely on existing stockpiles, as defense equipment manufacturing remains continuous. Naqdi claimed that even if the war continues for years, ballistic missiles will still be manufactured in Iran and supplied to the armed forces on the final day of the conflict.

Highlighting the country’s industrial capacity, the senior advisor noted that, in addition to hundreds of industrial complexes, Iran houses approximately 950 industrial towns where defense equipment production is actively underway across various regions.

The same top IRGC official also this week was interviewed by PBS. In that interview he more broadly laid out that...

"We have to attain deterrence so that the enemy never dares to attack us, so we can live with security. One way is to prolong this war until we get to the next term of the presidency and cause attrition, so that if anyone else wants to attack Iran, they will know there is a cost."

ALL OF IRAN’S WEAPONS TODAY ARE DOMESTICALLY PRODUCED — IRGC senior commander

‘Our drones, our missiles, our fast attack boats, our air defense systems and our electronic warfare systems...all of our weaponry is completely indigenous’ — Brig. Gen. Naqdi pic.twitter.com/PAkcIgzsUk

— RT (@RT_com) August 11, 2026

Last week, a separate Iranian army official voiced something similar:

"We have made maximum use of the opportunity of the memorandum of understanding and every moment of the ceasefire," army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia told state television this week, referring to a now-suspended MoU signed with the US in June.

He said attempts were made to induct existing equipment into the armed forces and import new equipment, as well as repairing and recovering damaged systems or manufacturing new systems.

The brigadier general also said new-generation drones have been used in combat, and their specifications would be announced later.

Last month, Iran’s acting Defence Minister Majid Ebn-e Reza said that missile and drone production had "not stopped for a single day" and that drone production had reached three times its pre-war levels. But he did not provide any figures.

Meanwhile, the White House appears to have given up on finding a 'military solution' - and is settling in for a longer economic war, hoping the Islamic Republic will be weakened from within and ultimately collapse. But the Iranian military and government say the country is prepared to endure and outlast these external pressures while remaining ever-ready to resume retaliatory strikes if necessary.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 10:45

The Beautiful Great Game: Extra Time & Penalties

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday’s in-line US CPI report was the non-event its relative insignificance vs tumultuous domestic and global backdrops suggested it should be. Meanwhile, in the ‘Beautiful Great Game’, it’s extra time and penalties, medals and champagne for some, and tears for others.

Iran remains defiant. Trump says he has “total control” of and “will keep” Hormuz. He’s hoping the UAE can shuttle vastly more refined product through Hormuz under the radar than it already is, as Axios flags, ‘Diesel desperation is mounting globally.’ Trump is also hoping Tehran will crumble in the face of 300% inflation, as the US blockade really is seeing import costs rise 4x in coming only by land. Over the longer term, a popular revolt can’t be ruled out – but until then that threat looms in many places.

In the US, despite a narrow defeat in the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary, the Democratic Socialist Alliance is rising to threaten to do to the Democratic Part what MAGA has done to the Republicans. Even the Wall Street Journal has noticed the rise of the pro-communist Hasan Piker.

The UK today sees a by-election where Reform UK leader Farage likely trounces Count Binface, a comedian wearing a trash can/rubbish bin on his head. While many in London and Manchester may think this mocks a right-wing populist feuding with much further-right figures, in a manner also seen in the US, The Times’ take is that Farage will return to Parliament in a Trumpian style that will further shake established British political norms.

A poll for the German state election in Saxony-Anhalt in four weeks shows the far-right AfD at 43%, Chancellor Merz's CDU 23%, the Left party 13%, the SPD 7%, the Greens 5%, the minimum to enter the parliament, and the far-left BSW and pro-business FDP 4% and 2%, respectively. In short, the ‘sensible centre’ of CDU, SPD, FPD, and Greens cannot govern in any possible combination, and perhaps nobody can.

The looming 2027 French presidential election holds the threat of far-right Le Pen meeting far-left Melenchon in the final round, where the former perhaps offers markets the relatively smaller shock given the latter has recently talked about outright cancelling French government debt.

Helpfully(?), the FT today asks, ‘Why must a socialist also be woke?’ arguing, “If the left could separate economics from culture, capitalism would have more to fear.” Yet elsewhere it notes the Boston Fed’s Collins saying poorer Americans are struggling to make ends meet while backing a rate hike if inflation remains hot that will hurt them too. ‘Why must capitalism not wake up?’ is a key question we ignore in assuming how we’ve played the game until now will still work ahead.  

Don’t think this is just a Western issue. India has been plagued with angry youth protests called ‘The Cockroach Party’; South Korea’s governing DPK is struggling with young voters furious about unaffordable housing and the need to gamble in the volatile stock market to make ends meet.

Unfortunately, it isn’t only Hormuz to resolve. The Wall Street Journal underlines that ‘War Is Squeezing Another Global Chokepoint: The Black Sea’, where Russia is ramping up attacks on grain shipments while Ukraine has been striking oil tankers. That war and the one in the Middle East are also conflating in the Caspian Sea, where Ukraine has struck Russian Iran-bound cargoes, which saw Iran contemplate an attack on Ukraine in response.

Moreover, Putin is reportedly now considering retaliatory seizures of European ships world-wide after his shadow fleet has been interdicted by them. That could require a firm, expensive, and risky response.

Eurovision banning countries in an “armed conflict” or a “sensitive geopolitical situation” from hosting its song contest will not suffice: Russia is already banned, so this is likely aimed at Israel, but also covers Ukraine – and could the recent border Spain-Morocco border issue count too?

Indeed, much more is needed in extra time. A belated Establishment recognition that free trade is not appropriate policy in a zero-sum, geopolitical, neo-mercantilist world disorder requires countries to ask, “What is GDP *for*?” That then creates a cascading stack of follow-on questions, including “*Who* is GDP for?”

Even if we drop free trade, nobody is going to buy into a neo-mercantilism that makes people feel even worse off. Countries will therefore have to find ways to protect themselves and make people feel better off.

Yes, there is the ‘inflationary impact of tariffs.’ However, that kneejerk retort overlooks that neo-mercantilism can generate a supply-side response that lowers prices; and it sees the relative GDP share of consumption decline vs. that of investment and exports while consumer spending can still grow significantly in real terms – it did in China for many years, for example.

The Beautiful Great Game will therefore require new strategies and tactics. Old ones will need to be substituted – and some will be sent off. Space precludes a more detailed breakdown of what this is likely to entail ahead, but as underlined years ago, it involves structural changes to how the government, central banks, businesses, markets, and even society operate.

As the latest examples, the US is burning regulations like the Biden-era reporting requirement for US businesses; the US Army has just opened its testing ranges to private industry for the first time; and UK PM Burnham is talking about shaking up what the current vape-shops-and-Turkish-barbers high streets look like with differential local tax rates for various kinds of businesses. Moreover, the US Treasury has bailed out Argentina and intervened to help Japan – the latter to limited impact until the BOJ wakes up, which could trigger a tsunami for Japanese insurers and the Yen carry trade, requiring even greater US involvement; and, of course, the Fed is being restructured under Warsh and will almost inevitably work more closely with the Treasury.

There will be penalties: the US just sold 10-year debt at 4.68%, the highest such yield since the GFC. If that is a problem for the US, imagine what it means for a global system built on its back.

There will be winners’ medals and champagne: the FT today notes, ‘Wall Street giants bet Nvidia’s AI chips will defy the laws of finance’, where “Private capital firms are wagering that the crucial hardware will hold its value for years to come.”

There will also be tears. AI volatility and recent ‘permanent underclass’ fears aside, AI is such a national-security issue that it’s convenient that the private-sector is prepared to fund so many schemes exceeding the cost of the Manhattan Project, saving the state the expense, in the aim of… massive profits(?); but it’s the government --and military-- that will likely want the fruits at the end, and cheaply.

That realpolitik power dynamic is a key neo-mercantilism rule you wouldn’t want to get offside of.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 10:25

Palantir, Flock, & Data Centers: The Battle Dividing The Right

The political right spent much of the last decade united against Big Tech, government surveillance, and the unprecedented expansion of state power during COVID. But the rise of artificial intelligence has brought with it an urgent need for data centers, and firms like Palantir and Flock are providing government with increasingly sophisticated tools for mass-surveillance… severing the coalition that once simultaneously maintained the slogans “back the blue” and “don’t tread on me”.

7pm ET on the ZH home/X feed.

Tonight, ZeroHedge Debates takes on the emerging fault line: Is America's technological revolution essential to national renewal, or are conservatives embracing the very surveillance infrastructure they once feared?

Joining us are InfoWars host Harrison Smith and Jordan Schachtel, writer at dossier.today, two figures who once found themselves firmly aligned against the COVID-era regime.

At the center of the dispute are three issues: Palantir, data centers, and Flock surveillance cameras.

Schachtel calls Palantir “an exceptional American company” and argues that Flock is simply another tool for police to catch criminals… so if you opposed “defund the police”, then you ought to support Flock. 

Palantir is an exceptional American company. Benjamin Netanyahu is a great statesman of our time. Data centers are the heart of American technological infrastructure. Flock cameras are essential to city policing. Covid was a scam turned global hysteria, not a lab leak. Elon Musk… pic.twitter.com/1Wikabypui

— Jordan Schachtel (@JordanSchachtel) July 22, 2026

Smith on the other hand… thinks they’re just gonna f***ing kill us:

They are going to try to kill you. https://t.co/w8SFrVCe00

— Harrison H. Smith ✞ (@HarrisonHSmith) August 4, 2026

“Us” being people deemed a threat to the State, which could extend to all gun owners if the Dems take power

They want to revitalize the American heartland but NOT through tens of millions in data center revenue that saves towns.

They want to make the cities safe but NOT through Flock systems that dramatically reduce crime.

It's always easier to do nothing at all and maintain the…

— Jordan Schachtel (@JordanSchachtel) August 9, 2026

President Trump recently made remarks inline with Schachtel that data centers have the potential to be a huge economic boon for the United States economy. Smith, however, does not see the tangible benefits:

Can someone tell me how a data center will improve the lives of Americans?

Explain to me the benefits that we will receive worth trillions of dollars, billions of gallons of fresh water, millions of acres of farm land, and more energy than our biggest cities.

Someone explain. pic.twitter.com/P3wkP9crhk

— Harrison H. Smith ✞ (@HarrisonHSmith) April 27, 2026

Regardless of which camp you’re in, tune in this evening on the ZeroHedge homepage and X feed at 7pm ET tonight for the showdown.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 10:10

Dowd: US Disabilities Hit An All-Time High Of 37 Million In July: UP 23% Since Feb 2021

Authored by Ed Dowd via Beyond The Narrative,

The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data is out, and the number of Americans ages 16 and over reporting a disability has hit a new all-time high of roughly 37 million. As of July 2026, the Current Population Survey series sits at 37,029,000. That's not a rounding error or a seasonal blip. It's the continuation of a trend that broke higher more than five years ago and has refused to mean-revert.

I've been tracking this series since early in the COVID era. The charts have been public for years on the Phinance Technologies site and in repeated threads on X. Month after month the total population with a disability grinds higher. From the pre-2020 plateau into early 2021 the numbers were relatively stable. Then something changed.

February 2021 marks the clear inflection. The rate of increase shifted to a new, steeper trajectory, a 3-to-4 sigma departure from the prior trend. In the years since, the survey has added seven million people. Growth of that magnitude in a mature population is not normal aging, not "long COVID" in isolation, and not some gradual sociological shift. It was sudden. It has persisted. And it continues to be treated as background noise by the same public health authorities who spent years obsessed with every other metric.

Let me address the predictable objections, because they surface every time these numbers are posted. First: "It's just fraud. People are gaming disability benefits." That claim collapses under basic scrutiny of the data source. This is not Social Security Disability Insurance claims. It is not SSDI awards, which lag, require medical determinations, and are subject to administrative backlogs and incentive effects. This is the Current Population Survey, the same monthly household survey that produces the unemployment rate and labor-force participation numbers. Roughly 60,000 households are contacted each month. Six simple questions are asked about serious difficulty hearing, seeing, concentrating/remembering/making decisions, walking or climbing stairs, dressing or bathing, and doing errands alone. Any "yes" classifies the person as having a disability for statistical purposes.

I laid this out in detail years ago in threads that are still easy to find. The series is real-time, not claims-driven, and has nothing to do with benefit eligibility. The questions have been consistent since 2008. Response patterns do not suddenly invent millions of new disabled respondents because the political winds shifted. When the same survey that markets, banks, and the Federal Reserve rely upon for labor-market signals produces a multi-year, multi-sigma break in disability prevalence, the responsible reaction is investigation, not dismissal.

Second: "It's illegal aliens flooding the numbers." This one is equally weak. Undocumented immigrants have long been known to under-respond or avoid government surveys altogether out of fear of detection, deportation risk, or general distrust of authorities. They are not lining up to answer detailed questions about household members' health limitations over the phone or in person. If anything, the survey systematically undercounts this population relative to reality. The sharp, sustained rise in reported disability began in February 2021, well before the largest recent surges in border encounters, and has continued in a manner inconsistent with simple demographic inflows. The data do not support the claim that the disability spike is an artifact of illegal immigration.

Public health agencies and the media have largely ignored the signal. There has been no serious, transparent inquiry into why the disability rate changed slope so sharply in early 2021 and has remained elevated. Temporary explanations such as COVID itself, lockdowns, mental-health effects of isolation all fail the timing and magnitude tests. The virus was already circulating in 2020 without producing this sustained break. The sharpest acceleration aligned with the mass rollout and subsequent workplace mandates. Correlation is not causation; we are constantly reminded. Fair enough, but when a novel medical intervention is administered to hundreds of millions of working-age adults on an accelerated timeline, and the independent, high-frequency survey of population health then records a multi-sigma regime change precisely then, the burden of proof shifts. Authorities who spent years demanding every other correlation be investigated suddenly lose interest.

The economic implications are not abstract. More than 37 million people reporting disability means a permanently larger share of the population facing barriers to full participation. Labor-force participation among the disabled remains far lower than among those without disability. Employers face higher absence rates and higher costs. Insurance pools absorb elevated claims. The fiscal pressure on entitlement programs grows even if this particular survey is not the claims pipeline. All of it is occurring against a backdrop of demographic aging that was already expected to raise disability prevalence gradually but not at the abrupt rate observed since early 2021.

I have posted the charts for years: total population 16+, the civilian labor force subset, men, women, employed versus not. The pattern is consistent. Rate-of-change moderation appears occasionally, then another leg higher. The February 2021 inflection remains the defining feature. A 3-to-4 sigma shift in trend is not something serious analysts discard. It is the kind of signal that, in any other domain...markets, epidemiology, engineering...would trigger immediate forensic review.

Health authorities have chosen another path. The data continues to accumulate. The total population survey keeps printing higher numbers. The questions asked of households have not changed. The methodology is the same one used for the official employment statistics that move markets every month. Yet the disability series is treated as an inconvenience rather than a red flag.

The conclusion from the data is straightforward. The timing, the magnitude, the concentration among the previously healthy working age population, and the failure of alternative explanations all point to the COVID vaccine campaign as one of the primary driver of the excess disability. That is the assessment I have maintained as the numbers have updated. Ignoring a sustained, multi-sigma break in a core government survey does not make the break disappear. It only guarantees that the consequences continue to compound while institutions look the other way.

The July 2026 print at 37 million is simply the latest confirmation. The trend that began in February 2021 has not been explained by health authorities, has not been investigated with appropriate rigor, and has not been reversed. Until that changes, the data will keep speaking whether anyone in authority cares to listen or not.

"Hear this, you foolish and senseless people, who have eyes but do not see, who have ears but do not hear." Jeremiah 5:21

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 09:50

StubHub Shares Plunge As Weak Outlook Fuels Fears World Cup Pulled Spending Forward

StubHub shares plunged 20% in premarket trading as uncertainty surrounding its second-half outlook fueled concerns that World Cup demand temporarily pulled forward discretionary spending on entertainment and events.

..back near four month lows...

StubHub's second-quarter results were mixed. Revenue climbed 33% to $573.1 million, beating the $513.3 million Bloomberg consensus estimate, while adjusted EBITDA of $105.7 million also topped expectations. Earnings per share were flat, missing the 9-cent consensus estimate.

2Q26 Earnings Snapshot:

• Adjusted EBITDA: $105.7 million; estimate: $101.7 million
• EPS: $0; estimate: $0.09
• Revenue: $573.1 million; estimate: $513.3 million

The key takeaway from BMO Capital Markets analyst Brian Pitz was that StubHub delivered a "strong" second quarter:

STUB reported strong 2Q26 results, with GMS, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA all coming in ahead of consensus by 24%, 12%, and 10%, respectively. Year-over-year GMS grew 34% to a record $3.1B, revenue grew 33% to $573.1M, and adjusted EBITDA grew 94% to $105.7M. Management raised FY26 guidance for GMS to $10.1-10.3B, 2% above consensus at the midpoint, and reiterated adjusted EBITDA guidance of $400-420M, 2% below consensus at the midpoint. Maintain Outperform rating and $15 target price.

Continued Strong Marketplace Momentum: STUB delivered another quarter of strong growth, supported by robust global demand for live events, continued leadership in the secondary ticketing market, and elevated World Cup-related activity. GMS increased 34% YoY to $3.1B, while revenue grew 33% to $573M. Profitability expanded meaningfully, with the adjusted EBITDA margin improving 580 bps YoY to 18.4%.

Improving the Balance Sheet to Support Growth Investments: Strong earnings growth and cash generation continue to strengthen the balance sheet while preserving capacity for future growth investments. The company reduced debt by an additional $200M YTD, including $100M repayments in both May and July. Over the past 12 months, total debt has been reduced by $1.1B. As a result, net leverage declined to 3.0x trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA as of June 2026, compared with 4.5x at year-end 2025, generating approximately $73M in annualized interest expense savings.

International Business Remains Robust: International sales growth exceeded North American growth during the quarter, albeit from a smaller base, underscoring the company's expanding global footprint and sustained demand for live events outside the U.S. During the World Cup, fans from more than 150 countries purchased tickets through STUB, and roughly one in seven tickets was purchased by buyers outside the U.S. and Canada.

Updated 2026E Outlook: Reflecting stronger-than-expected 2Q performance, STUB increased its full-year 2026E GMS outlook to $10.1-10.3B, 2% above consensus at the midpoint. STUB reiterated adjusted EBITDA guidance of $400-420M, demonstrating confidence in its profitability outlook while continuing to invest in growth initiatives.

BMO Model Updates: We are fine-tuning our 2026E and 2027E estimates, with GMS rising slightly to $10.3B and $11.3B from $10.0B and $11.1B, respectively, and revenue declining to $2.04B and $2.27B from $2.10B and $2.49B. Adjusted EBITDA rises to $415.3M and $568.3M from $415.1M and $565.8M.

But it was only on the earnings call that management acknowledged uncertainty over whether the World Cup temporarily pulled forward discretionary spending. This prompted BMO to lower its 2026 revenue estimate to $2.04 billion from $2.1 billion while slightly raising its adjusted EBITDA forecast to $415.3 million.

And if demand was pulled forward, another question looms: How many consumers relied on buy now, pay later services to finance their ticket purchases?

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 09:35

Watch: UK PM Wants Every Area In Britain To House Migrants

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has decided that "all parts of the country need to play their part."

That means middle-class families and leafy villages must now accept large numbers of asylum seekers so the poorest areas are no longer the only ones carrying the load.

This approach obviously does nothing to stop the root of the problem, the sheer number of migrants washing up in boats. It simply advertises better accommodation to the next wave of illegal arrivals.

'All parts of the country need to play their part.'

Prime Minister Andy Burnham addresses the village of Piddington, which is facing a migrant detention centre being built in its community. pic.twitter.com/uo0XsKZUsD

— GB News (@GBNEWS) August 11, 2026

Burnham's comments came in direct response to the ongoing revolt in the Oxfordshire village of Piddington. Residents there face plans to house up to 1,250 single adult male asylum seekers on a former military site near a community of roughly 400 people.

The numbers would leave locals heavily outnumbered. Children have written letters pleading with the Prime Minister not to destroy their village. Families held a symbolic independence referendum in which 96 percent voted to leave the United Kingdom in protest.

Seven-year-old Rex Perkin said his family had lived in the village for over 100 years and that he walked to his sister's grave. He worried he would no longer be able to do that. Other children begged to keep their park, their dog walks, and the quiet life they knew. Parents described the prospect of being so outnumbered that daily life would change completely.

Burnham told GB News he understood concerns and would look into the issues raised by "the good people of Piddington." He then made the wider point clear: "We cannot have a situation where it's only the poorest communities in the country that receive all of the dispersal of refugees and asylum seekers. I do believe all parts of the country need to work, to play their part."

Borders minister Anna Turley doubled down, defending the plan to impose the numbers on the tiny village and insisting the policy was about "fairness" and a "more fair and equitable system."

Borders minister defends imposing 1,200 migrants on an Oxfordshire village of just 400 people after PM said middle class areas must accept more asylum seekers https://t.co/k0aBSANsG9

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) August 12, 2026

She said the men would be "contained" on the site but still allowed out. The message to anyone watching from the French coast is straightforward: break into Britain and you may end up in a secure facility near a prosperous English village rather than a rundown hotel in a deprived town.

The parts of the UK with no asylum seekers mapped as Andy Burnham vows to make middle-class areas take more migrants https://t.co/RBRd3pjyZh

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) August 12, 2026

The Centre for Migration Control put the core problem bluntly:

Telling migrants that if they break into Britain they will be housed in Kensington or the Cotswolds is hardly going to deter them from crossing the Channel.

The government simply does not understand the pull factors driving the crisis. pic.twitter.com/NS5oqgDWU5

— Centre for Migration Control (@migrationCtrl) August 12, 2026

Labour MP Graham Stringer, speaking on TalkTV, rejected the idea that opposition was rooted in racism.

Labour MP Graham Stringer responds to Andy Burnham's calls for middle class communities to accept asylum seeker accommodation.

"They don't want them, not because they are racists – it is an unfair and very difficult burden to put in those communities."@TVKev pic.twitter.com/6LxxvZsB2O

— Talk (@TalkTV) August 11, 2026

GB News coverage highlighted the demographic reality. Certain areas could see locals outnumbered three to one if the redistribution continues on this scale.

'They're going to be outnumbered three to one'.@forster_k highlights how certain areas could leave locals outnumbered if the Government follow through with Andy Burnham's premise that middle class areas should take in more migrants. pic.twitter.com/k5m84faW7Q

— GB News (@GBNEWS) August 12, 2026

Piddington is not an isolated case. Earlier this summer the village made national headlines when residents staged their symbolic breakaway vote after discovering the Home Office intended to convert the MoD Bicester site for 1,250 men with almost no local consultation.

Infrastructure, policing, and community safety were secondary concerns. The site sits next to a children's playing field and nature reserve. Parish council chairman Tim McNally described the process as residents being "driven into a corner."

Similar scenes have played out elsewhere. In Crowborough, East Sussex, residents formed a volunteer security group after hundreds of single adult males were placed at a former army camp.

Women reported feeling unsafe walking alone. The group of vetted locals began patrolling streets because official policing could not provide the reassurance needed.

Crowborough had already braced for up to 600 men from countries including Pakistan, Eritrea, Iran, Afghanistan and Bangladesh. Protests drew thousands. Locals installed extra security and questioned why their town was chosen with minimal consultation.

The housing pressure is also structural. Projections show migrants are set to take a huge share of new homes built in Britain by 2030. Net migration on current trends will require hundreds of thousands of additional properties, crowding out British families already struggling with supply.

Burnham's redistribution plan is presented as fairness after poorer areas have carried a disproportionate load for years. In practice it expands the destinations available to people who arrive illegally by boat.

Closing hotels and moving arrivals into former military sites or middle-class districts does not remove the incentive to cross. It upgrades the offer. The Channel remains open. The gangs adapt. Record numbers continue to arrive in single large boats even as ministers claim progress.

Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp called the approach a "vindictive punishment beating" to the middle classes after years of tax rises and rising bills.

The deeper failure is strategic. A policy that signals better housing outcomes for those who reach Britain illegally cannot reduce arrivals. It can only increase them.

Piddington's children wrote letters. Their parents voted to leave the country in protest. Other towns have formed their own security teams. The government response is to spread the same model further into the places that once felt insulated.

The boats will keep coming as long as the destination remains attractive. Housing the next arrivals in nice unspoiled villages does not change that calculation. It reinforces it.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 09:20

2026 Rate-Hike Expectations Plummet After Cooler-Than-Expected PPI

Following yesterday's cooling (in-line) consumer price inflation data (driven in large part by energy deflation), US producer prices were expected to rebound modestly in July from a 0.3% MoM decline (headline) in June.

Instead, headline Producer Prices were unchanged MoM (cooler than expected), pushing the annual change down from +5.5% to +4.7% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

Core PPI (Ex Food and Energy) also printed cooler than expected (+0.2% MoM vs +0.3% MoM), dragging Core PPI YoY down to +4.2%...

Final demand services: Prices for final demand services advanced 0.2 percent in July after rising 0.5 percent in June. The July increase can be traced to the index for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing, which moved up 0.6 percent. Conversely, the indexes for final demand transportation and warehousing services and for final demand trade services decreased 1.8 
percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. 

• Product detail: Leading the July increase in prices for final demand services, the index for portfolio management advanced 6.5 percent. Margins for health, beauty, and optical goods retailing; automobiles and automobile parts retailing; lawn, garden, and farm equipment and supplies retailing; food and alcohol retailing; and food and alcohol wholesaling also moved higher. In contrast, prices for truck transportation of freight fell 1.8 percent. The indexes for machinery and vehicle wholesaling and for securities brokerage, dealing, and investment advice also decreased.

As stocks accelerate to new highs so portfolio management costs soar...

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods fell 0.7 percent in July after moving down 1.4 percent in June. A major factor in the July decrease was a 3.1-percent decline in prices for final demand energy. The index for final demand foods moved down 0.9 percent. Conversely, prices for final demand goods less foods and energy increased 0.1 percent.

• Product detail: More than half of the July decrease in the index for final demand goods can be attributed to a 5.7-percent decline in prices for gasoline. The indexes for fresh and dry vegetables, diesel fuel, jet fuel, residual fuels, and thermoplastic resins and materials also fell. In contrast, prices for motor vehicles and equipment moved up 0.3 percent. The indexes for electric power and for grains also increased.

Energy remains a major driver of the deflationary impulse...

The full breakdown:

Goods deflated for the second month in a row while services rose for the second month in a row...

The recent rapid surge in memory prices has stabilized (but is not dropping)...

The CPI-PPI spread continues to (broadly speaking) signal increased pressure on corporate margins...

So, the bottom line is that energy price declines are now deflationary while soaring memory costs and stock portfolio management fees are driving aggregate prices higher...

So should The Fed pop the AI/Memory/Compute bubble? (in the same way it's unable to impact a supply shortage in the energy markets)

Which overall means that the market is now pricing in LESS THAN ONE rate hike in 2026...

Rate-hike expectations remain flat from yesterday as today's PPI merely confirmed the lack of pressure on Warsh to act with any urgency.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 09:15

Michigan And New York Drive Jump In Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims Near 2-Year-Lows

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time rose to 209k last week, rebounding off the lowest levels since 1969...

Michigan and New York saw the largest surge in initial jobless claims last week, while Puerto Rico and Ohio saw the biggest weekly declines...

Continuing jobless claims, however, dipped back below 1.8 million Americans, clearly trending lower again...

Combined with Friday's disappointing payrolls print, the labor market appears to remain in the 'no hire, no fire' regime.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 09:07

Former SPLC Exec Arrested: Accused Of Funneling Donor Money To KKK, Neo-Nazi Informants

Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) executive Heidi Beirich was arrested in California on Wednesday under a superseding indictment in the Justice Department's ongoing case against the organization, according to a CNN report confirmed by federal officials.

Heidi Beirich. What even...

Beirich, who directed the Southern Poverty Law Center's Intelligence Project until 2019, faces three counts: conspiracy to commit wire fraud, conspiracy to submit false statements to a federally insured bank, and conspiracy to conceal money laundering. She was expected to make an initial appearance in Riverside later Wednesday.

"I believe she was part of the effort to open bank accounts in completely fictitious companies' names and make payments to individuals for reasons that were not accurate as described," Attorney General Todd Blanche told reporters Wednesday. "This is exactly what we said would happen in a case like this."

At the center of the allegations is an SPLC program that paid informants embedded in extremist organizations the nonprofit publicly monitored and campaigned against. Prosecutors allege Beirich helped oversee those payments and shared a bank account with one of the informants receiving them.

That informant, identified in charging documents as F-9, allegedly infiltrated the neo-Nazi National Alliance. Prosecutors further allege that Beirich was living with him and romantically involved with him while the payments were being made.

Reporting on the June superseding indictment said roughly $140,000 in donor funds moved from the SPLC's operating account into joint accounts held by Beirich and F-9 between 2015 and 2021. The organization is also alleged to have paid the informant more than $1 million since 2007.

Other payments under the same program allegedly went to separate recipients. The indictment, for example, describes funds reaching an Imperial Wizard of the United Klans of America - a different individual from the informant with whom Beirich allegedly had a relationship.

According to prosecutors, F-9 also broke into the headquarters of a white supremacist organization and removed approximately 25 boxes of documents. Those materials allegedly became the basis for a 2015 Hatewatch article written by Beirich titled "Chaos at the Compound." A second informant was allegedly paid about $6,000 to take responsibility for the burglary and conceal the identity of the original source.

An attorney for Beirich denied wrongdoing, calling the case meritless and politically motivated and saying she looks forward to presenting her side in court. An SPLC spokesperson had no immediate comment.

The SPLC has contested the government's case from the beginning, arguing that prosecutors are mischaracterizing a long-running intelligence-gathering program designed to monitor violent extremists. Its attorneys have also emphasized that law-enforcement agencies made use of information generated by SPLC informants.

Initial Indictment

A federal grand jury in Montgomery indicted the SPLC on April 21 on 11 counts: six of wire fraud, four of bank fraud, and one of money laundering.

Prosecutors allege the organization funneled more than $3 million in donated funds to at least eight informants associated with groups including the Ku Klux Klan, Aryan Nations, the National Alliance, and the National Socialist Party of America between 2014 and 2023.

According to the indictment, some of those payments were routed through bank accounts opened in the names of fictitious entities such as Rare Books Warehouse and Tech Writers Group.

"The SPLC is manufacturing racism to justify its existence," Blanche said when the original charges were announced.

The SPLC pleaded not guilty in July and moved to dismiss the indictment, arguing that the prosecution was vindictive and that the administration was retaliating against the organization for identifying and criticizing extremist groups.

On Aug. 7, U.S. District Judge Emily Marks rejected that motion, finding that the SPLC had not demonstrated prosecutorial animus. We covered that ruling here, as well as the unusual timing of an Atlantic story targeting FBI Director Kash Patel three days before the original indictment here.

The FBI severed its relationship with the SPLC in October 2025. In its most recent available filing, the organization reported gross receipts of $339.3 million and assets totaling $822.2 million.

At a June 9 House Judiciary Committee hearing titled "Manufacturing Hate, Part II," witnesses testified that the SPLC's "hate group" designations had been used as screening criteria by payment processors, donor-advised funds, corporate-giving platforms, and web-hosting companies.

WATCH: "The SPLC is little more than a highly profitable scam."

ADF's @ryanlbangert delivers his opening statement to @JudiciaryGOP on @splcenter pic.twitter.com/nbxBBhN63a

— Alliance Defending Freedom (@ADFLegal) June 9, 2026

In practice, witnesses argued, the SPLC's privately maintained list could carry consequences resembling those of an official government designation, despite there being no formal due-process mechanism for organizations placed on it.

One witness told the committee that his organization lost access to charitable-giving platforms, web hosting, and nonprofit software pricing after appearing on the SPLC's hate map.

Those claims remain witness characterizations rather than judicial findings. But they are now part of the congressional record, and the fact that federal law-enforcement agencies previously relied on intelligence produced by the SPLC is not in dispute.

Beirich left the SPLC in 2019 amid the upheaval that followed the firing of co-founder Morris Dees and the departure of much of the organization's senior leadership. She later co-founded the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism, where she continued working as an extremism researcher.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 09:01

SpaceX Surges Following First Lockup Expiry After Musk Taunts Shorts

SpaceX shares have jumped 35% over five sessions and 22% since Elon Musk responded to our X post on the "massive SPCX shorting," which cited S3 data. He said, "I try to warn them, but they just double down ..."

The post-earnings squeeze has pushed SPCX well above its $135 initial public offering price, easing concerns that future lockup expirations could overwhelm demand, which was certainly the talk of the town across institutional desks and on CNBC.

About 911.5 million shares became eligible for sale on Aug. 6, more than the number issued in SpaceX's record $86 billion IPO in June.

Ahead of Aug. 6, Peter Singlehurst, head of Baillie Gifford's private companies team, commented on the first round of lockup expirations, saying, "We've never seen anything like it. We've never seen anything of this scale, and we've never seen a lockup phased in this way," adding, "We're in uncharted waters."

SpaceX staggered its lockup expirations across nine dates to mitigate potential market impact. As many as 319 million additional shares will be released Aug. 20, followed by similarly sized blocks over the coming months. Musk's 6.4 billion shares remain restricted until June 2027.

Related:

• Mapping SpaceX's Lockup Expirations: HSBC Calculates When The Shares Could Hit The Market

HSBC's Lockup Timeline

via HSBC

"Once investors realized after that first day that it's not going to go into free fall, then they realized they could kind of go back and reassess what happened in the quarter and realize that things are moving along," said Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, which holds SpaceX shares.

The stock had tumbled before last week's first expiration, though traders attributed much of that decline to higher-than-expected artificial intelligence spending disclosed in SpaceX's first earnings report as a publicly traded company. Better-than-expected revenue and a smaller loss helped shares recover once fears of insider selling.

Musk told investors that AI/rocket company could reach an annual revenue run rate exceeding $100 billion by year-end and generate $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, or possibly 2029.

"The earnings release was pretty surprising to the upside, and I think that's the antidote to shares coming on the market," said Andrew Plum, managing partner and investment committee head at Loxahatchee Capital, which holds SpaceX shares. 

Plum noted, "You can have very good financial news coming from the company that's going to attract new buyers at these levels, which will allow those shares to exit at a reasonable price and not to put too much pressure on the stock."

Here's how Wall Street currently views the stock:

Looking ahead, UBS analyst Gavin Parsons provided color on the next Starship launch, slated for late August: 

While SpaceX has not yet officially scheduled test Flight 14, an FCC permit application sets 8/28/26 as a target launch date - aligned with earnings call commentary targeting late August for the flight. Per Elon Musk, Flight 14 will target orbit, deploy operational Starlink V3 satellites, and attempt an upper stage/Ship catch. We do not expect a booster catch attempt but see this possible with Flight 15 - a milestone critical to achieving full and rapid reusability. As SpaceX achieves Starship milestones, it enables the ramp-ups in both Connectivity and AI, the primary drivers of growth. Watch the launch via SpaceX stream, read up on our Buy thesis in our Initiation Report, read our Flight 13 recap, and see below for more Flight 14 detail.

Primary test objectives are likely to include the successful launch, achieving orbit, deploying operational Starlink V3 satellites, and catching the upper stage Ship.

• Date: The FCC permit application for Flight 13 originally targeted 5/29, and the flight occurred 7/24, so this is just one indicator that a launch could occur in August. Flights slip for many reasons, but the cadence is generally accelerating, as late August would be a five week turnaround. Elon suggested daily Starship flights is possible within 2027; this would be upside to our more conservative estimate of 32 flights in 2027.
• Curiously the FCC application states "The 1st stage booster will return to the launch site" and does not reference the 2nd stage, which the Flight 13 application did.
• The heat shield problem is solved per Elon (in regard to full and rapid reusability), which he suggested is the single biggest problem to achieving that capability. We expect iterative improvement to continue but the intact tiles on Ship 40 are clearly visible on the vehicle.
• Starlink V3 operational deployment: unclear exactly how many satellites will be deployed, but we think somewhere greater than the 20 on Flight 13 but below the 60 we estimate Starship will eventually have the capability to carry. Elon indicated 1,000 operational V3 satellites is possible within 1H27 - as with our more conservative launch assumption (which is the bottleneck) - this would be upside to our 540 estimate if achieved.

Status of the equipment

The test flight stack will likely be comprised of Booster 21 (Super Heavy booster) and Ship 41 (Starship upper stage).

• Booster 21 is awaiting engine installation in Mega Bay 1. Stacking was completed in late June and cryogenic proof testing was completed on July 20th. We do not.

Professional subscribers can read more on SPCX here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 08:15

Futures Rise, Just Under Record High Ahead Of PPI Report

Futures are higher again, although trading in a narrow range for the past week just below all time highs, with Tech flat following disappointing earnings from CSCO. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures add 0.2% while Nasdaq futures are unchanged as Cisco shares dropped 6.4% in premarket trading after earnings failed to impress. Elsewhere, Semis are flat, Memory is lower, with Mag7 / Software trading up. Cyclicals and Defensives are trading higher with weakness in Energy / Materials; AI theme remains bid. Price action in Asia was upbeat and again characterized by bubbly tech enthusiasm just days after the last Korean bubble popped, with benchmarks in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan all advancing, and the Kospi re-entering a bull market, up 20% from its late July lows. European stocks are grinding higher with the Stoxx 600 up 0.2%. Brent crude is down 1.7%, pausing its recent rally. Newsflow remains light and the impasse over the Strait of Hormuz is dragging on. Weaker energy prices are dragging US yields lower across the curve with more price data due today via PPI metrics. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat as the low vol environment in FX markets continues. USD/JPY is steady following a report that the government is supportive of a faster BOJ hike. Spot gold is down 0.6% and back on a $4300/oz handle. JPM says to keep an eye on the Retail investor as the bank's flows data show an uptick from 4%-ile to 64%-ile but with a shift away from Tech to macro themes, eg, gold. Today's US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims and July PPI (8:30am). Fed speakers scheduled include Cleveland Fed’s Hammack (8:15am) and Richmond Fed’s Barkin (8:40am)

In premarket trading

 

In other corporate news, Anthropic is in talks to buy the artificial intelligence startup Decart AI for about $6 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. Kenneth Dart’s Candle Lake launched a mandatory cash takeover offer for Evolution valuing the Swedish betting company at about 132 billion kronor ($13.8 billion). 

Futures rise as a benign, inline CPI print kept the path clear for equities, while a powerful rally in Asian chip stocks - South Korea’s Kospi has now surged roughly 22% from its July low - has handed US tech a strong lead-in. The question for the session is how broadly that strength holds up once US trading gets underway: Cisco is sliding pre-market after its first full-year AI revenue forecast underwhelmed investors given the scale of its order book, while Cerebras is getting smashed despite raising its annual sales outlook, as traders questioned how quickly the AI infrastructure boom will translate into revenue. 

As Bloomberg notes, investors are increasingly discerning between companies already turning the data-center boom into revenue and those where they are still being asked to look further out. The reaction to Cisco and Cerebras suggests the next batch of AI earnings may face a higher bar. Headline orders and exposure to the capex boom may no longer be enough on their own, with investors likely to focus more closely on how quickly demand converts into revenue, what it does to margins and whether earnings can keep pace.

Spending remains huge and demand remains real. But if that dispersion keeps widening, the next leg of the AI trade will be driven by companies that can actually explicitly deliver on it.

Attention later in the day will turn to producer price data, which can serve as a leading indication of consumer inflation. Traders will also be watching the results of a 30-year Treasury auction, with the $25 billion offering tipped to price at the highest interest rate in 25 years.

Headline PPI likely grew 0.2% in July, but Bloomberg Economics expects details in the report to show pockets of easing inflationary pressure. 

“Things are going to get much more expensive, and that’s going to be a challenge for central banks going forward,” said Michael Hewson, a senior market analyst at iForex. 

In politics, Iran reorganized its military to be more aggressive abroad as talks on ending the war with the US remain mired in stalemate, a sign that Tehran is preparing for a protracted era of regional conflict.  Brent crude slipped to about $87 a barrel on Thursday. It’s still far from erasing a 12% surge in the previous six days as a deal between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains out of reach.

Citigroup strategists raised their full-year earnings forecast for S&P 500 firms, and said revenue trends at the AI capex spenders “should help provide a floor for the AI-influenced portion of the index.” The team led by Scott Chronert boosts EPS target by ~4% to $365. Yet while strong second-quarter earnings were supercharged by “paper gains” in AI investments, this poses risk that losses in those same investments may weigh on quarters ahead, especially for mega-cap tech stocks, according to Ned Davis Research.

European stocks are grinding higher with the Stoxx 600 up 0.2%, boosted by strong corporate earnings and as an easing of Federal Reserve rate hike bets added to positive sentiment.  Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Adyen shares rose as much as 14%, the most since April 2025 and after the stock lost more than a third of its value from the end of last year to Wednesday’s close
• Mandatum climbed as much as 11%, the most since Feb. 2025, following the investment management firm’s second-quarter results
• Autostore shares rose as much as 27% after the maker of automated storage and retrieval systems delivered a strong beat across the board in the second quarter and outlined revenue guidance for the year that surpassed estimates
• Maersk shares rose as much as 8.7%, hitting their highest level since August 2022, after the shipping giant significantly beat estimates in the second quarter and hiked its earnings guidance for the year
• TKMS gained as much as 12% to a new record high, adding to the stock’s strength after Wednesday’s results, as Bernstein raises its rating on the naval shipbuilder to outperform from market-perform
• Intrum shares rose as much as 15% after analysts at DNB Carnegie reinstated coverage of the Swedish credit management service provider with a buy rating following its recent rights issue
• Pandora rose as much as 6%, the most since early May, as the Danish jewelry maker exceeds expectations in the second quarter
• Swissquote dropped as much as 12%, the most since May 2022, after the Swiss online broker lowers its full-year outlook due to weak crypto income
• Antofagasta shares fell as much as 6.2%, the most in nearly a month, after the copper miner reduced its production guidance citing weather disruption at its Los Pelambres mine in Chile
• Orsted shares fell as much as 3.5% after the Danish offshore wind developer’s second-quarter results
• HelloFresh shares fell as much as 3.4% after the meal kit provider reported another decline in orders in the second quarter and said full-year revenue growth was likely to come in at the lower end of the guided range

Price action in Asia was upbeat and again characterized by tech enthusiasm, with benchmarks in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan all advancing. Asian stocks advanced, led by chipmakers, after US inflation came in line with expectations and eased concerns of an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate hike.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.1% to the highest since July 6, led by South Korea’s SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. The nation’s Kospi Index rose as much as 4.8%, pushing the gauge into a technical bull market. Major indexes in Japan, Taiwan and China also advanced. South Korean and Japanese technology stocks “are benefiting in part from this positive movement” after the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 gained, said Hiroshi Namioka, chief strategist at T&D Asset Management, adding sentiment is improving after the US CPI data. The renewed buying in tech and chip shares comes as US tech earnings are making investors more upbeat that the momentum in AI-rally will continue after the selloff in the past few months. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat as the low vol environment in FX markets continues. USD/JPY is steady following a report that Japan’s government is supportive of a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan, with the next move likely either in September or October, according to people familiar with the matter.

• USD/JPY steadied at 159.42; Japan’s government is said to support faster BOJ rate hikes
• EUR/NOK rose as much as 0.4% to 10.9856; Norway’s central bank kept borrowing costs steady for a second meeting
• NZD/USD falls as much as 0.6% to 0.5821, leading G-10 losses against the dollar, after a drop in New Zealand’s two-year inflation expectations
• GBP/USD dropped as much as 0.2% to 1.3474; The UK economy unexpectedly expanded in June

In rates, treasuries are near session highs in early US trading with oil prices down about 2%. This week’s curve-steepening move extends as long-end tenors lag ahead of $25 billion 30-year new-issue bond auction at 1pm New York time. Treasury yields richer by up to 3.5bp across belly of the curve, which outperforms, steepening 5s30s by around 1bp vs. Wednesday’s close; spread is widest since May 20 ahead of the 30-year bond auction, providing additional concession that may help the sale. US 10-year yield near 4.67% is about 3bp lower on the day, outperforming bunds and gilts in the sector by 0.5bp and 2.5bp. This week’s Treasury auctions conclude with $25 billion 30-year new issue set to draw the highest yield for the tenor since 2001; Wednesday’s solid 10-year note sale tailed by just 0.1bp. IG credit new-issue slate is empty so far; Wells Fargo led a five-item, $6.1 billion docket on Wednesday following the busiest two-day stretch since January. Wednesday’s issuers paid about 5bp on offerings that were 3.9 times covered. Thursday’s economic data slate includes weekly jobless claims and July PPI, and scheduled Fed speakers include Hammack and Barkin.  

In commodities, Brent crude is down 1.7%, pausing its recent rally. News flow remains light and the impasse over the Strait of Hormuz is dragging on. WTI crude oil futures are approaching $81/bbl vs session high near $83, supporting Treasuries. Weaker energy prices are dragging US yields lower across the curve with more price data due today via PPI metrics. Spot gold is down 0.6% and back on a $4300/oz handle.

Today's US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims and July PPI (8:30am). Fed speakers scheduled include Cleveland Fed’s Hammack (8:15am) and Richmond Fed’s Barkin (8:40am)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• SpaceX has surged 35% after its first lockup expired, adding about $500 billion in market value. BBG
• Prices for Japan’s corporate goods continued to rise at an elevated pace in July, keeping high cost pressure on companies, as central bank officials continue to consider whether to proceed with additional interest rate hikes to contain inflation. BBG
• Anthropic investors expect the AI start-up to float at a valuation of $2tn or more in October, a figure that would eclipse SpaceX and make the AI lab’s debut the largest ever initial public offering. FT
• Japan’s government supports a near-term BOJ rate hike, probably in September or October, people familiar said. Traders took note, raising the odds of a 25-basis-point move next month to about 75% and briefly lifting the yen. BBG
• The US is set to sell $25 billion of 30-year bonds at the highest borrowing cost since 2001. Lofty financing costs are feeding through to the broader economy, adding to pressure on Donald Trump ahead of the midterms.
• South Korean retail investors must now complete a week-long course before they can start trading in single-stock funds, as regulators tighten restrictions on products blamed for exacerbating wild swings in one of the world’s most volatile stock markets. FT
• Global food supplies come under threat as Russia ramps attacks on Ukraine ports and ships in the Black Sea. RTRS
• The UK economy unexpectedly expanded 0.3% in June boosted by sunny weather and World Cup football. Over the whole of the second quarter, it grew 0.4%. BBG
• Colombia’s government asked the US to join its fight against drug gangs, authorizing joint military operations against so-called “narco-terrorism,” Pete Hegseth said. BBG
• The Mexican government is pushing the U.S. to lower tariffs on North American automobiles as part of conversations over reworking the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, according to people familiar with the matter. The move is a counterproposal to the Trump administration after its push to require more American-made parts in vehicles. WSJ
• US President Trump signed a memorandum authorizing US law enforcement to use cyber tools to target criminal organizations operating in foreign jurisdictions, according to The White House.
• The US race to compete with China on lithium runs into water battles, with Trump-backed plans to build production of critical elements undercut by community resistance: FT.
• BofA Total Card Spending (w/e Aug 8th) +6.2% Y/Y (prev. 4.7%); the rebound in spending over the past 3 weeks is consistent that the mid-July slump was a blip

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as the region took its cue from the mild positive handover from Wall Street, where equities were underpinned by earnings, and September rate hike bets were unwound after in-line CPI data. ASX 200 bucked the trend amid various earnings releases, while RBA Assistant Governor Kent stuck to the hawkish-leaning script in which he noted the possibility of rates increasing further if risks materialise, but acknowledged evidence suggests that monetary policy in Australia is somewhat restrictive, and that the tightening earlier this year is working. Nikkei 225 rallied amid the tech momentum and following softer-than-expected PPI data for Japan. KOSPI outperformed as renewed semiconductor strength lifted the index into a technical bull market. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp diverged, with sentiment initially dampened in Hong Kong as participants reflected on earnings, including mixed results from Tencent, while gains in the mainland were contained after the PBoC reiterated its support pledges in its quarterly implementation report, but refrained from 7-day reverse repo operations for the third consecutive day.

Top Asian News

• RBNZ plans a paper on modernising New Zealand's payment system, including potential changes to the current framework

European bourses are firmer across the board, outside of the FTSE 100 given that 19% of the index is trading ex-divs. The positiveness follows on from the constructive tone overnight in Asia. Despite choppiness in China, Lenovo surged some 22% after the Co. reported a 43% increase in revenue to USD 26.94bln, beating expectations of USD 22.33bln. Post-earnings, the CEO said they are to achieve the USD 100bln annual revenue goal ahead of schedule and announced that they are working with Nvidia (NVDA) to launch an AI PC powered by the RTX chip later this year. Sectors point to a more mixed picture. Banks top the sector pile, followed by Consumer Products & Services and Food, Beverages & Tobacco. Basic Resources is the clear sector laggard, with Chemicals and Energy printing modest losses.

Top European News

• UK GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q2 QQ) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%).
• UK GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q2 YY) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 0.9%).
• UK GDP (Jun MM) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.0%).
• UK GDP (Jun YY) 1.1% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 1.2%).

FX

• USD stabilises just below 100.00 after gains on Wednesday despite US CPI triggering a small dovish repricing. ING opines the USD strength seen after the data is likely a function of traders rebuilding longs as the set of July data comes to a close ahead of PPI today. Another potential factor could be this week's quiet markets, which could have triggered some carry demand, especially as the recent data do not imply a clear Fed policy direction. Today, DXY is flat within a narrow 99.91-100.08 range after facing resistance at 100.05.
• JPY saw some strength after Bloomberg sources indicated the Takaichi government is said to support a faster BoJ rate hike. A report which has convinced markets, with interest rate futures now implying a 75% probability of BoJ tightening in September. This could be added to should these remarks come from Takaichi herself. USD/JPY fell c. 30 pips to a 159.18 base, before paring some of the move, now sitting around 159.40.
• NOK saw some weakness as while the Norges Bank left rates unchanged and keeping the door open to further tightening, it signalled inflation progress in the statement. If this progress is reflected in September's statement, it could imply a removal of the tightening bias and as such has led to the trimming of NOK longs. Despite this, the bank remains slated to hike in September, a view held by Nordea and SEB. EUR/NOK was choppy on the announcement, initially falling 0.2% to a 10.90 base, before reversing the move to a peak just above 10.97.
• NZD is the G10 laggard after soft one year and two year inflation expectations. Kiwi saw pressure throughout the APAC session, rebounding slightly now after surpassing the 100 and 200 DMAs in NZD/USD, reaching a 0.5820 trough.

Fixed Income

• Once again, a contained start for fixed income. Major macro updates relatively light, and nothing that changes the narrative for the complex. Today, the focus is on US PPI for July, which will inform/update the calls ahead of PCE after Wednesday's CPI; as a reminder, the series sparked a modest dovish reaction in near-term Fed pricing.
• USTs flat in 108-15 to 108-23 parameters, looking to PPI as mentioned before Fed's Barkin (2027) and Hammack (2026), and while both have spoken recently and updated view post-CPI will be pertinent.
• Bunds in-fitting with the above, newsflow for the bloc has been and is scheduled to remain light. Currently a few ticks firmer in 124.65-83 parameters.
• A similar picture for Gilts, with no lasting reaction at the open to the morning's GDP series which, in short, was stronger-than-expected for the GDP components aside from an in-line Q2 Q/Q print. However, the series is caveated by a weaker-than-expected breakdown for June and downward revisions to the May GDP series.

Commodities

• WTI Sep and Brent Oct futures are subdued amid a lack of notable US-Iran-related updates. On diplomacy, Pakistan's key mediator has held a second meeting with Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi and is seeking to extend the 60-day truce, according to an informed source cited by Al Arabiya. On the flip side, the Strait of Hormuz authority rejected US claims and said the waterway remains blocked until Iran's conditions are met, according to Press TV.
• WTI currently resides in a USD 81.64-83.30/bbl range, with prices now under yesterday’s USD 82.40-84.35/bbl. Brent resides in a USD 87.30-89.07/bbl range vs yesterday’s 88.10-90.07/bbl range. Dutch TTF is similarly subdued and back under EUR 60/MWh, with focus in Europe on no storage replenishing ahead of winter, and against the backdrop of Middle Eastern issues.
• Precious metals consolidate amid a lack of macro updates ahead of US PPI. Spot gold trades on either side of its 100 DMA (USD 4,387/oz) in a current USD 4,364-4,450/oz range. Spot silver similarly gives back yesterday’s gains (and more), with the precious metal under USD 64.50/oz vs yesterday’s 66.80/oz high.
• Base metals are also lower across the board amid the summer lull. Elsewhere, Antofagasta lowered its full-year 2026 copper production guidance to 625–655kmetric tons (vs prior from 650–700ktons) following a precautionary weather-related shutdown at its Los Pelambres mine in Chile. 3M LME copper hovers around the USD 14k/t mark in a current USD 13,949.58-14,133.43/t range at the time of writing.
• Romania's Nuclearelectrica has begun to to disconnect the final nuclear reactor, due to the continued low Danube level.

Trade/Tariffs

• Mexico is pressing the US to reduce tariffs on North American autos as part of discussions over reworking the USMCA, according to people familiar with the matter cited by WSJ.
• Indian Trade Ministry said they are actively in talks with the US on pending trade issues.

Central Banks

• Japanese PM Takaichi's government is said to support a faster BoJ rate hike, while market sources say the BoJ could raise rates in September or October, according to Bloomberg.
• Norges Bank maintained its rate at 4.25%, as expected; may still become necessary to raise the policy rate. On inflation, the statement said that slower inflation is welcome news, but inflation is still too high, and it is too early to conclude that the inflation outlook has changed materially. The Committee judges that a restrictive monetary policy stance is still needed to bring inflation down to target within a reasonable time horizon.
• RBA's Kent said the Board sets the level of the Cash Rate it judges will achieve low and stable inflation and full employment, while he added that borrowing costs have increased, mortgage payments have risen and conditions in the established housing market have turned down. Kent stated evidence suggests that monetary policy in Australia is somewhat restrictive, and that the tightening earlier this year is working, but also noted the possibility of rates increasing further if risks materialise.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• A White House official said US sanctions and a naval blockade have left Iran completely bankrupt, and that President Trump has many tools to pressure Tehran in the coming months, according to Al Jazeera citing media reports.
• The Strait of Hormuz authority rejected the US' claims and said the waterway remains blocked until Iran's conditions are met, according to Press TV.
• Iran’s Paramilitary Head Basij said the Strait of Hormuz is “under Iran’s control and management”, Fars News reported.
• Pakistan's Defence Minister met with Iran's ambassador to Islamabad and called for strengthening bilateral cooperation with Iran, according to IRNA.
• Yemeni Armed Forces announced strikes on Saudi ships and military sites, according to Press TV.
• US President Trump's administration criticised Israeli Defence Minister Katz's remarks about maintaining Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon, stressing the comments contradict commitments Israel made under framework agreement with the US and Lebanon, according to Axios.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia hit Ukraine's Izmail port, with port infrastructure is on fire following the Russian attack, according to local authorities.
• Ukraine's military said they hit Russia's oil refinery in Bashkortostan, some 1,300km from the border.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Aug 8 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 202k, prior 199k
• 8:30 am: United States Aug 1 Continuing Claims, est. 1794k, prior 1801k
• 8:30 am: United States Jul PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.3%
• 8:30 am: United States Jul PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: United States Jul PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 4.9%, prior 5.5%
• 8:30 am: United States Jul PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 4.1%, prior 4.7%

Central Bank Speakers

• 8:15 am: United States Fed’s Hammack Speaks in Moderated Discussion
• 8:40 am: United States Barkin Speaks on Economic Outlook

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

For Sale: One pair of eclipse glasses. One careful owner. Used exactly once. Given yesterday’s scramble to get hold of a pair, these could prove to be a superb long-term investment for the next equivalent event to yesterday. The date? Well, the next solar eclipse visible from the UK that’s bigger than yesterday’s arrives on 3 September 2081. If you’re prepared to hold for even longer, the next total solar eclipse over the UK is on 23 September 2090.

Rewinding 64 years, for the last 24 hours, the broad market story has been a modest eclipse of Fed-hike fears, even as the Middle East backdrop has darkened again. US inflation came in broadly as expected in July, which was enough after Friday’s weak employment report to reduce the urgency for another rate increase. The result was a modest rally in front end Treasuries, while another strong performance from semiconductor stocks left the broader S&P 500 (+0.26%) within touching distance of a record high. In fact, in Asia this morning, chip stocks have also continued to boost the KOSPI’s (+4.46%) performance, with the index now up around +22% in the last 10 days.  However, long-dated yields barely moved, oil remained close to $90/bbl, European gas jumped and gold climbed as hopes for a rapid US-Iran agreement continued to fade.

The main event was the US CPI report, where headline prices rose by +0.1% month-on-month in July and +3.4% year-on-year. Core CPI increased by +0.2% on the month and +2.5% on the year, with the latter matching its slowest pace since March 2021. It was all in-line with consensus but that still makes it two consecutive relatively encouraging core inflation reports and, when combined with last week’s weaker employment data, leaves less pressure on the Fed to act immediately in September.

There were some reassuring details beneath the headline. Energy and gasoline prices fell for a second consecutive month, grocery prices (-0.1%) declined for the first time since March and supercore inflation rose by a modest +0.2% mom. However, it wasn’t an entirely clean disinflationary report. Core goods prices (+0.2%) saw their largest monthly increase since last September as computer software and accessories prices rose +21.2% year-on-year, their largest increase on record. With memory chips increasingly being diverted towards data-centre demand, it is an interesting reminder that the AI investment boom is not only supporting growth and equities but may also be creating inflation in parts of the consumer technology supply chain. 

For the most part, markets focused on the benign headline of the CPI print. Pricing of a September Fed hike fell from 48% to 40%, the lowest it has been since the June Fed meeting shifted the market perspective on hikes. But the overall repricing was modest, with the amount of hikes priced by year-end falling by -1.9bps to 27bps. So less a decisive all-clear on inflation than potential permission for the Fed to remain patient. Our US economists maintain their call for a Fed rate hike in September, though the CPI print together with last Friday’s mixed jobs report reduce the urgency for imminent action.

That distinction showed up clearly in the Treasury curve. The 2yr yield fell -1.4bps to 4.20%, but the 10yr yield inched up +0.5bps to 4.69%, closing about +3bps above its pre-CPI levels. And at the very long end, the 30yr yield rose +1.7bps to 5.26%, closing less than 2bps from the post -2007 high it reached on July 31.

So the CPI report eased concerns about the next Fed move without doing much to resolve the longer-term concerns around deficits, supply, and term premium. That will remain relevant as the Treasury sells $25bn of new 30yr bonds today, with the auction expected to produce the highest yield for a new 30yr issue since August 2001. Yesterday’s 10yr sale had seen $42bn of bonds issued at the highest yield since 2007 at 4.68%. Ahead of that 30yr auction, Treasury yields are a little lower overnight, with the 10yr down -2.4bps.

One reason for continued caution in rates markets is the situation in the Middle East as Iran and the US appear to harden their positions. A Revolutionary Guard general said yesterday that Iran has reorganised parts of its military as part of an “offensive doctrine”. By contrast, US President Trump posted on social media around the European close that the US has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz as he also talked up the US naval blockade and called Iran “all talk and no action”. In another sign that talks between the US as currently deadlocked, Pakistan’s foreign ministry suggested that the larger peace process has stalled.

While there is little sign of agreement over control of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief or the terms under which maritime traffic might normalize, oil flows through Hormuz have improved a bit from the worst point of the disruption, in part as shuttle transfers have played an increasing role. So that’s helped limit the extent of the upward pressure on oil prices, with both Brent crude (+0.08% to $88.98/bbl) and WTI (+0.08% to $83.27/bbl) little changed yesterday. And they are trading slightly lower this morning, though that still leaves them +6% higher so far this week.

European natural gas was the larger energy mover yesterday, surging +3.89% to €61.02/MWh and taking its gain for the week to +9.86%. In other inflationary news, wheat prices rose +3.57% after a key Russian grain export port on the Black Sea was damaged by Ukrainian drone strikes. With this backdrop, the 1yr euro inflation swap (+1.5bps) rose to a two-week high of 2.43%, even as its US counterpart fell -7.3bps to 1.90% following the CPI print. That said, European sovereign bonds saw muted moves, with yields on 10yr bunds (+0.2bps), OATs (+0.1bps) and gilts (+0.7bps) inching higher, while BTPs (-0.8bps) edged lower.

Meanwhile, US equities were the clearer beneficiaries as concerns over imminent Fed hikes eased. The S&P 500 (+0.26%) closed just -0.12% below its record high from August 7, while its equal-weighted equivalent (+0.16%) reached a new high of its own. Both the Nasdaq (+0.54%) and the Russell 2000 (+0.61%) saw larger gains, while the Mag-7 (-1.05%) lost ground. With a CPI risk event being avoided, there was also a sense of an August lull taking hold, as the VIX volatility index fell to its lowest level since January (-0.73pts to 14.55pts).
The main equity excitement remained in semiconductors, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up +2.49%. That leaves the index up +75.1% year-to-date and +18.7% from its low on July 29 though still -15.3% beneath its June record. The latest gains have been led by stocks benefitting directly from AI spending, underpinned by another strong set of AI-infrastructure results. CoreWeave (+19.28%) and Super Micro (+19.02%) both soared yesterday following their upbeat outlooks on Tuesday evening. Nebius (+34.14%) then added to the positive mood before yesterday’s US open, reporting a +454% year-on-year rise in revenue to $582m, alongside stronger-than-expected margins. Demand for AI computing remains exceptionally strong, even if the escalating cost of supplying it continues to grow just as quickly.
Tencent’s results after the Hong Kong close also offered a positive revenue message out of China, with +11% sales growth, though its shares are down -3.81% this morning as profits were weaker-than-expected as the company stepped up AI capex spending. As a result, the Hang Seng (+0.05%) is broadly flat.

Looking at the broader market moves in Asia this morning, the subdued US CPI release and continued tech-rally are also propelling indices forward. South Korea’s KOSPI (+4.46%) has now recovered from its late July lows, putting the index into a technical bull market. Elsewhere, the Nikkei 225 (+1.75%) CSI 300 (+0.49%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.42%) are also advancing. Only the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.39%) has pulled back this morning. 

European stock markets were softer yesterday. The Stoxx 600 fell -0.16%, ending a run of 7 consecutive gains. The CAC 40 lost -0.46%, with the DAX (-0.23%) and FTSE 100 (-0.10%) also slipping. Nevertheless, the major European indices remain very close to recent records, with all four indices within 1% of their highs.

In other asset classes, gold continued its recent rebound, rising +0.87% to $4,408/oz. Gold is now up +8.95% since the end of July, though remarkably it is still up only +2.06% year-to-date. 

Turning ahead to today, the main attention will be on the US PPI release for July after yesterday’s CPI print. As a reminder, our US economists expect headline (+0.2% vs. -0.3%) and core (+0.3% vs. +0.2%) to come in close to their CPI counterparts. But as ever, the focus will be on categories like health care services, airfares, and portfolio management which feed into core PCE, because the Fed officially target the PCE measure of inflation. So with pricing for the next Fed meeting still in the balance, all these prints are likely to get a lot of attention. 

In terms of the rest of the day ahead, outside of US July PPI, we'll see initial jobless claims, UK Q2 GDP, EU industrial production. Central bank events include the Norges Bank decision, while the Fed’s Hammack and Barkin will speak. Applied Materials will be reporting its earnings today.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 08:00