Zero Rss

Trump Proclaims War Won't Last 'Too Long' After Yesterday 'Love-Tap' On US Bases By Iran Summary

• Trump warns of more strikes, but failed to mention tonight: Says US can hit Iran “at any time” but expects the war to end soon.
• Iran retaliation: Missile and drone strikes hit U.S.-linked sites across Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain.
• Civilian toll rises: Iran reports a wedding was targeted.
• Hormuz escalates: Two tankers reportedly hit mines, killing two crew members.
• No regime collapse, despite Trump urging 'rebellion': Despite US claims, Iran shows no clear signs of imminent collapse and says negotiations remain possible.

//--> //--> //--> Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Yes 7% · No 94%
View full market & trade on Polymarket Trump Wide-ranging Comments from Oval

Trump again reiterated in afternoon comments to reporters that the military campaign against Iran won't last too long. Of course, we've heard this many times before, also amid reports that White House aides are urging 'quiet' related to the Iran conflict until at least after November midterm elections, after which operations could ramp up again.

"We blew up much more than their radar last night, it was a very heavy attack last night. And we’re prepared to do another one any time we want," he stated.

"We hit them last night because they took a shot at our base in Jordan," he continued, confirming the Iranian retaliation. "We hit them hard last night. They gave a little love-tap, but we hit them hard."

He also described that "some defensive, some offensive" Iranian radars and capabilities along the Strait of Hormuz were taken out.

Trump says that while the US is ready to strike Iran “at any time”, he doesn’t expect the renewed fighting to last “too long”.

Another interesting moment below... these numbers keep getting inflated, despite there not being any evidence of large-scale protests and violent suppression on the ground in recent months:

Trump on Iran:

As of three months ago, they had 52,000 protesters that were killed.

Now I hear the number is 20 to 25,000 more.

They have close to 65,000 protesters killed. pic.twitter.com/w5aRbQ5VLd

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 2, 2026

And there's this via CBS:

Trump in Oval described Iranian actions against protesters. They use "machine guns and sometimes the snipers. They like the snipers better because all they do is have a crowd of 200,000 people, and a person goes down here right between the eyes, and they'll have three snipers doing it, and it's a horrible thing to watch."

What's the timeline on this? What is he talking about?

Netanyahu has also joined in from Israel, on Wednesday saying that Mossad continues to be active in Iran, and that the goal is regime collapse.

Iran on Deadly Wedding Attack

Iran is assessing the aftermath in terms of casualties and damage in the wake of the new flare-up in fighting, after the US launched a series of deadly attacks on the Islamic Republic Tuesday, focused in the south and Hormuz Strait area, and Tehran in expected fashion retaliated with drone-and-missile strikes against Gulf nations and Jordan.

Iran says the total death toll from the new American assault has risen to 18, especially following a an alleged mass casualty strike at a wedding celebration. It reportedly happened in happened Hormozgan province Tuesday night, with authorities having announced five were killed, including a child, and with at least 50 more wounded.

Aftermath of alleged American strike on a wedding in Sirik, Iran.

Regional media reports, "Six-year-old Amir Mohammad Karimi was among those killed, it said, adding that those wounded had been transferred to hospital in the nearby city of Minab."

"Earlier, Reza Shahidiyan, the governor of Sirik county, told the IRIB state broadcaster that 63 people had been injured, including 50 women and children," the report continues. "Other Iranian reporting has cited as many as 68 wounded."

Tehran officials, as well as Iran's Red Crescent Society, have made formal requests to global bodies, including the International Criminal Court, to take legal action for the civilian deaths and alleged war crimes.

BBC has cited the Pentagon as saying it is aware of reports about the strike but that US forces never targeted civilians.

🚨 🇮🇷 A U.S. attack on a wedding ceremony in Sirik, in southern Iran’s Hormozgan province, killed four people, including a child, the provincial Red Crescent’s managing director said, according to Tasnim. The province’s deputy governor for security earlier reported 50 wounded.… pic.twitter.com/eoHMkD2jJA

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) September 1, 2026 US Sites Attacked by Iran

As for known targets from the Iranian response, which saw an initial ballistic missile wave target US bases in Jordan, some of the following has emerged:

• Camp Titin & Prince Hassan Base (Jordan): ballistic strikes.
• Erbil Bases (Iraq): Combined missile/drone.
• Ali Al Salem (Kuwait): HQs & drone ramps hit.
• US Naval Base (Bahrain): Casualties & destroyed aircraft reported.

Videos which purport to show some of these strikes, particularly against NSA Bahrain (certainly not for the first time, as it's already suffered significant damage), have been widely circulating but remain unconfirmed.

In the Strait of Hormuz, the Revolutionary Guard has announced that two foreign ⁠oil ⁠tankers hit sea mines and are on fire after attempting to transit the waterway earlier in the day Wednesday. The IRGC said it occurred while the vessels used an "illegal route" through the the strait, state TV reports. Simultaneously Al Jazeera issued the following:

Bahri, a shipping company in Saudi Arabia, says two Filipino crew members were killed on board the SIDR vessel in an “incident” while transiting Hormuz.

Trump Latest Bravado 

As for the broader US naval blockade on Iranian ports, Reuters outlines that "Iran has gone about seven weeks without shipping meaningful crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz, as a U.S. naval blockade succeeds where years of sanctions failed by cutting off one of Tehran's main sources of foreign-currency earnings."

Meanwhile, this is real...

The commentary adds: "Unlike ‌previous sanctions campaigns, when Iranian crude continued reaching buyers despite restrictions, the current blockade has stopped fresh crude cargoes reaching China, Tehran's only major remaining oil customer, increasing pressure on government finances and foreign-currency reserves."

The world is now witnessing the seventh month of a "3-4 week" war, and the White House is still pushing this 'the Iranian people will rise up' narrative. According to a late Tuesday Trump Truth Social Post:

I’m not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table, as ABC Fake News reported. I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement. I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing. They are just playing out the inevitable. When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight? President DJT

In the opening days of Operation Epic Fury it must be recalled that Trump claimed "help is on the way!" - and yet now amid a stalemated situation US bases across the region have been degraded and destroyed.

Where is Secretary of State Marco Rubio these days?...

I think Bessent is talking about the Trump administration here…

Things are getting rough behind the scenes clearly. 🇺🇸 https://t.co/Z5j40klgEG

— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) September 2, 2026 Bessent: 'Snake'

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is meanwhile touting that the US is 'cutting off the head of the snake.'

"When I was a kid in South Carolina, we lived near a swamp, and as a result, we’d end up with a lot of poison snakes in our yard. And you would take either a rake or a machete, or a paddle from a boat, and you cut the head off," he said Tuesday.

"But the snake, the tail kept wiggling, and you had to bury the head of the snake because the head of the snake was still poisonous, and there was venom there. So we are burying the head of the Iranian snake," he continued. "The snake doesn't know it’s dead yet, but it will stop wiggling when the sun goes down." But as yet, there are no signs of a rapidly collapsing state system, and there are no masses rising up in the streets.

Iranian leadership is vowing not to back down, but to continue inflicting pain on Washington, on the military, economic, and political fronts.

Parliament speaker goes off...

Minab school: children massacred.
Lamerd sports hall: kids slaughtered.
Kouhestak wedding: children killed with families.

If a power acts like Satan, picks targets like Satan, and kills like Satan, it’s Satan.

Shields a junior Satan that does the same? It’s THE Great Satan.

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) September 2, 2026

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf on Wednesday has declared Iran does not reject negotiations but views them as a tool in its broader confrontation with the US and Israel, Tasnim reports. He is reiterating US must fulfill its commitments before Iran "takes steps" to reopen Hormuz - which suggests Tehran has not altogether abandoned the possibility of getting back to the negotiating table.

More Latest Developments

• US President Trump posted "I’m not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table, as ABC Fake News reported. I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement. I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing. They are just playing out the inevitable."
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Iran doesn't control the Strait of Hormuz and the US took out Iranian radar along the strait, as well as got 17mln bbls of crude out on Monday. Bessent said that China pays Iran in yuan and when yuan cannot be converted to dollars, Iran starves, while he said they are in an acceleration phase of Iran bankruptcy and maybe Iran will lash out more kinetically.
• US Central Command said forces successfully completed a wave of strikes against Iranian military targets on September 1st in which they struck targets including air defence sites, radar systems, maritime assets and facilities, mine laying capabilities, and communications sites.
• US strikes on Iranian targets on Tuesday included two Iranian government tankers under a new 'tanker for tanker' approved by US President Trump to deter Iranian attacks on tankers, according to Axios. Furthermore, US officials said around 100 targets were attacked during the strikes, while it was separately reported that the US assessed Iran was planning to expand attacks against commercial ships.
• Pakistan's foreign ministry said Army Chief Munir visited Tehran and generated substantial momentum on the Strait of Hormuz issue and that Pakistan is positive about all parties returning to the negotiating table.
• Iran's IRGC said two tankers were blown up and stopped a few hours ago after striking mines in the Strait of Hormuz. IRGC also warns of additional penalties for shipping companies.
• IRGC said it targeted US bases in Erbil, Iraq with missiles and drones. Iran's army also launched drone attacks on the US base in Bahrain, while Kuwaiti air defences confronted attacks by hostile drones. Additionally, the IRGC said it attacked a US Marines base in Jordan known as Camp Tibtain with missiles and claimed that a large number of US forces were killed in the attack. However, US and Jordan officials reported no casualties.
• Russia has been secretly helping Iran develop advanced supersonic cruise missiles, according to FT.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 15:59

Rival Ukrainian Agencies In Lengthy Street Shootout, Officers Wounded

A bizarre mini civil war of sorts has erupted among rival Ukrainian security agencies, complete with a wild street shootout and police standoff which has threatened to create more political scandal for President Zelensky - whose office has issued a statement - in an unprecedented saga which seems straight from the plot of a Lioness episode.

Details of the fresh incident, aspects of which may still be unfolding, are murky but widespread videos and local reports say the overnight firefight left wounded in the streets of Kiev. It appears to have started when authorities were investigating an alleged Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) plot against a Russian opposition figure fighting alongside Ukraine forces. But the investigators came upon uncooperative Ukrainian agents among Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR).

Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office indicates that SBU officers (Security Service of Ukraine, which is also sometimes referred to as SSU) came under armed attack by "one of the units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine" while carrying out investigative actions at 10 Shumskoho Street. Some pundits have suggested that a "Russian terror cell" was involved, but so far Ukrainian official statements and media have described what appears a Ukrainian on Ukrainian assault.

Officials said a search at the location turned chaotic when "a group of individuals launched an armed attack on an SSU investigative and operational team."

Another regional media source further details that the "SBU said its officers were conducting urgent investigative measures to collect and document evidence in a pre-trial investigation into a terrorist attack allegedly being prepared by Russian intelligence services." 

Were they looking for a Russian 'double agent'? It seems that's what is being described in the emerging media accounts.

Some sources say a standoff ensued for many hours in the capital's Dniprovskyi district, during which time the SBU dispatched its elite " Special Operations Center Alpha". The situation appears to have resolved only once all armed entities jointly agreed to lay down their weapons.

Reports that Officers from the Security Bureau of Ukraine (SBU) opened fire against officers from Ukraine's military intelligence agency (GUR). Some sources say that possibly at least 10 officers are receiving treatment for bullet wounds...

IN UKRAINE 🇺🇦 a shootout occurred between 2 law enforcement agencies.

Officers from the Security Bureau of Ukraine (SBU) opened fire against officers from Ukraine's military intelligence agency (GUR). At least 10 officers are receiving treatment for bullet wounds.

The conflict… pic.twitter.com/Me6vZetSlv

— Joel The Dane 🇩🇰🇺🇦 Данський Козак #NAFO (@JoelTheDane) September 2, 2026

It seems that the SBU has taken control of the situation, and has the upper hand over the military intelligence side at this time:

Some of those who resisted were injured in the incident. The attackers have been detained.

Initial investigative actions have established that the detainees belong to a unit from Ukraine's defence forces. Weapons and documents have been seized from them.

Thus far, Western mainstream media has paid scant attention to it, and typically ignores or at least under-reports such internal scandals in Ukraine.

Local Ukrayinska Pravda has issued the following timeline and outline of events, via Yahoo News:

•  On 1 September, the Russian Volunteer Corps said that its deputy commander for combat operations, Stepan Kaplunov, had been abducted by unknown individuals in the courtyard of a residential building. [The Russian Volunteer Corps is a military and political organisation established in 2022 that consists of Russian volunteers who have been fighting for Ukraine since 2014] 

•  On 2 September, the SSU said that, jointly with DIU, it had foiled a terrorist attack against a leader of a Russian opposition political nationalist movement who had arrived in Ukraine. DIU released a similar statement, but it was later deleted. 

•  Police cordoned off Shumskoho Street in Kyiv's Dniprovskyi district, where the standoff between the SSU and DIU took place. 

•  Ukrainska Pravda learned that representatives of the State Bureau of Investigation and the head of the SSU's Special Group Alpha had arrived at the scene. 

•  The SSU said that its officers came under armed attack while conducting investigative actions in a case concerning a terrorist attack being plotted by Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB). 

•  The Prosecutor General's Office has launched a pre-trial investigation. 

Unconfirmed reports of a fatality...

It's 10 hours later and the standoff in Kiev between SBU (Ukrainian secret police, internal security agency) and GUR (military intelligence/JSOC) is still hot. There have been multiple firefights throughout the night and morning. At least one dead and two injured are being… https://t.co/GzlFY8bEcZ pic.twitter.com/I58XM0vleP

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) September 2, 2026

Meanwhile, Zelensky's office has directly acknowledged and addressed the episode. Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the President's Office and former head of Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, vowed that a transparent investigation is urgently taking place.

"The State Bureau of Investigation will now deal with the situation. It is important to ensure a thorough and impartial investigation, but no one has the right to abduct servicemen with impunity, open fire in the streets of our cities, or issue or carry out criminal orders," he stated.

//--> //--> Ukraine coup attempt by December 31?
Yes 5% · No 95%
View full market & trade on Polymarket Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 15:40

Market Valuation: Expensive CAPE Or Cheap PEG?

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The S&P 500’s Shiller CAPE ratio just hit 41. Since 1881, the market valuation has been more expensive under CAPE only once. That was during the final months of the dot-com bubble. At the same time the CAPE is ringing warning bells, the PEG ratio, which measures price relative to expected earnings growth, is at its lowest level in at least three decades, possibly its cheapest reading ever.

One market valuation says run for cover while another says bargain. Both market valuation tools use data from the same 500 S&P companies but interpret the market completely differently.

Confusing, yes, but the disagreement between the two charts comes down to one question: Is the past a better predictor of the future than the wisdom of Wall Street?

To answer our question, we’ll first summarize what each ratio measures, then dig into expected growth versus historical growth, the culprit behind the big difference in the two graphs.  

CAPE Isn’t Perfect

The P/E ratio is one of the most quoted market valuation gauges for stocks and stock indexes. While valuable, it rests on one bold and often wrong assumption: future earnings will match past earnings. In other words, it doesn’t capture how earnings may change.

For the CAPE valuation, the assumption is similar, but instead of using the most recent one year of earnings to assess value, it uses ten years of earnings. This better smooths earnings, reducing the impact of short periods of economic volatility.  But it has the same vulnerability, assuming the future will be just like the past.

P/E tends to be most useful for comparing companies with similar earnings growth, but it is less useful when analyzing high-growth companies or those with the potential to change their growth trajectory.

Despite its flaws, the CAPE valuation strongly correlates with future market returns, as shown in the graph below comparing CAPE valuations and forward ten-year S&P 500 returns. While the CAPE provides a good indicator of expected returns over the full next ten years, it doesn’t provide a roadmap for the monthly and annual returns that make up the period.

The PEG Ratio

The PEG ratio builds on the P/E ratio framework but uses future earnings growth estimates instead of prior realized earnings. Because it uses estimates, it can change rapidly.  

The PEG ratio calculation is the forward P/E divided by the expected 3–5-year earnings growth.

To better appreciate today’s PEG ratio, we break down the numerator, forward P/E, and the denominator, G (3-5-year growth estimates).

Forward P/E

The numerator in the PEG ratio is the forward P/E. Instead of using the trailing twelve months of earnings as in the traditional P/E ratio, the forward P/E uses earnings estimates for the coming twelve months. Thus, its value depends heavily on how well Wall Street can predict earnings for the coming 12 months.  

We can analyze the effectiveness of one-year earnings forecasts in a couple of different ways.

First, we can compare the trailing 12-month P/E to the forward P/E and imply expected earnings for the next year. We can then compare the implied earnings with actual earnings. Using this method, the top two charts below show that Wall Street almost always overestimates earnings and by a wide margin at times.

The second way to grade Wall Street’s forecasting ability is to compare final one-year forecasts with those made at the start of the period. The graph below reinforces the graphs above: Wall Street tends to overestimate earnings.  EPS estimates were reduced in nine of the ten years spanning 2016 through 2025.  However, the trend has changed with 2026 and 2027 estimates trending higher than original forecasts.

G: 3- 5 Year Expected Earnings Growth

Forecasting earnings for just 12 months forward is extremely difficult for Wall Street professionals. Accordingly, forecasting three- to five-years of earnings growth (G in the PEG ratio) is much trickier and more error-prone.

(Note: for this article, we use four-year expected earnings growth to balance out the three-to-five-year range of estimates.)

To assess the effectiveness of longer term forecasts, we can use historical PEG and forward P/E ratios to back out an implied four-year growth rate. As we did with one-year estimates, we then compare that to the actual four-year growth that ensued.

The graph below shows there is very little correlation between four-year earnings growth estimates and actual growth. As we saw with one-year estimates, the market overestimated earnings far more often than it underestimated them.

Deciphering Today’s PEG Ratio

The graph below shows the market PEG valuation and its two components- forward P/E and 3-5 year earnings estimates.

The middle graph shows the forward P/E (the numerator) is stretched, indicating a relatively expensive valuation. Despite the forward P/E, the PEG ratio in the top graph is cheap because the longer-term earnings growth estimate shown in the bottom graph is at its highest level since at least 1995. The takeaway is that the PEG ratio is cheap entirely because of strong earnings-growth forecasts.

The G Is Concentrated

The hardest part of analyzing the “G” in the PEG ratio is the abnormal divergence in recent earnings trends and earnings expectations between a few large tech companies and the large majority of other S&P 500 companies.

Second-quarter earnings results exemplify this problem. In a mid-July summary of the quarter, with roughly a third of the stocks in the index still to report, FactSet reported the Magnificent 7 was growing earnings 31.1% year over year versus a blended rate near 25% for the index. Only a few weeks later, on August 7, the quarter’s growth rate more than doubled to 50.4%.

Most of that acceleration traced back to two companies. Alphabet and Amazon, both large earnings contributors, reported significant non-operating gains. Alphabet reported a $98 billion mark-up in its equity portfolio primarily due to SpaceX, and Amazon added a $53 billion gain largely from Anthropic. Strip out those gains, and FactSet’s blended growth rate for the S&P 500 falls from 50.4% to 32.0%. Two companies, out of five hundred, are worth eighteen full percentage points of index earnings growth.

This leads to a big question. Can ten or so large-cap technology companies carry earnings growth for a 500-company index? Hyperscalers are on pace to spend roughly $700 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026 and are projected to top $1 trillion in 2027. That spending shows up today as reported capex and, eventually, as revenue for a small number of companies selling the chips, the cloud capacity, and the construction and power systems supporting it. It does not contribute much to the earnings growth for the other companies in the index.

Is The Market Rich Or Cheap?

Think of this market valuation conundrum between PEG and CAPE like your favorite sports team that’s been mediocre for a decade. Ten years of results argue that your expectations for next season should be minimal.  But during the offseason, the team signed a few all-stars, and a reasonable fan would bump up their expectations regardless of the last ten years.

The historical losing record is real, and so is the upgraded roster. The substantial growth estimates are making a big bet that the new players will significantly help the team. The question investors need to ask is whether they will help generate more wins than the market expects.

So, how should investors think about today’s stock market valuations? The answer likely sits between rich and cheap. If earnings keep growing rapidly alongside AI spending, the market, in aggregate, may be fairly priced despite CAPE’s warning. But a recession, or a slowdown in planned AI spending, is a real risk to that outcome.

That said, while the optimism embedded in the PEG ratio carries downside risks, we must also consider that AI’s productivity gains will eventually spread to other S&P 500 companies. The open questions are when, how much, and most importantly for pricing today’s market, how that eventual payoff compares to what’s already priced in.

Summary

CAPE uses historical realized data to value stocks.  You can debate whether the past decade is a fair guide for valuing stocks, but you can’t debate whether the earnings in CAPE’s denominator are real; they are.

PEG asks you to rely on one-year and three-to-five-year earnings estimates.  This leaves the obvious question of how much current forecasts deserve to be trusted. The historical answer, as we showed, is not very much.

Nine of the last ten annual EPS estimates were revised lower before they were finished. Thirty years’ worth of four-year growth estimates show no statistical relationship to the growth that followed.

However, today’s outlook is trickier than in the past, as the expected growth making today’s PEG ratio look so cheap is disproportionately concentrated in a small handful of companies. That earnings growth concentration hinges on AI, a powerful innovation that could be an economic game changer.

PEG says market valuations are cheap while CAPE says they are expensive. CAPE is a report card on what already happened. PEG is a bet on what happens next. Keep that distinction in mind, and the two market valuation charts stop contradicting each other.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 15:05

Thousands Of Dropbox Accounts Breached In 'Verification' Hack

Hackers were able to gain access to approximately 5,000 Dropbox accounts last month after exploiting a flaw in Lenovo's email verification process to register fraudulent Lenovo IDs. 

Clouds are seen in front of the Dropbox logo in this illustration taken February 27, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

According to a notification sent to the affected users, "an issue with Lenovo's email verification process allowed an unauthorized party to register a Lenovo ID using your email address" - in some cases, users didn't even have Lenovo accounts. The hackers then used the fraudulent Lenovo ID to access the Dropbox account associated with the same email address without needing the login password, BleepingComputer notes. 

The accounts were accessed August 4th through the 21st. 

so dropbox got hacked (never had a Lenovo account, haven't been to UK) pic.twitter.com/UoYRaJFuEC

— yoni | parser.eth (@yonilevy) August 31, 2026

Users reported receiving strange notifications "about two weeks ago," urging them to change their password and activate two-factor authentication (2FA). 

"One odd thing at the time: the Dropbox login page had started offering 'Continue with SSO' for my email even though I never created a Lenovo ID," according to one person. 

Lenovo told BleepingComputer that the issue was connected to a legacy integration between Lenovo ID and Dropbox, which was used "to improperly authenticate certain Dropbox accounts."

"Upon identifying the issue, Dropbox and Lenovo worked collaboratively to promptly mitigate the risk," the spokesperson continued. 

Dropbox forced all sessions authenticated via Lenovo ID to expire, and added a new login requirement forcing users to use their Dropbox account password instead. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 14:00

US Diesel At Pump Nears April War High As Global Refining Crisis Deepens

A diesel-price shock may be approaching Western economies.

That's because the industrial fuel sits at the epicenter of freight, agriculture, construction, and heavy industry; soaring prices ripple quickly through supply chains, raising transportation and construction costs, reigniting food inflation, weakening consumer sentiment, and intensifying margin pressure on small and medium-sized businesses.

The latest AAA data show that the nationwide average retail price reached $5.69 per gallon. That leaves diesel just below its April peak, which marked the highest price since mid-2022.

The renewed surge comes as the US-Iran conflict has deepened so far this week with tit-for-tat attacks, further disrupting any full near-term normalization of the Strait of Hormuz. The US is currently operating the Oman shipping corridor. Beyond the Gulf disruptions, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries are constraining exports from one of the world's largest fuel suppliers. The simultaneous shocks are rippling through the global refining complex, which was already plagued by limited spare capacity.

Earlier this week, President Trump summoned top US refining executives for a closed-door meeting and leaned on them to increase diesel and gasoline production, with diesel creeping toward $6 per gallon nationally and gasoline rising above the politically sensitive level of $4 ahead of November's midterm elections.

Bloomberg's NYMEX one-month heating-oil/crude spread, tracked on the BBG Terminal as the HOCL1 Index, breached $100 per barrel early Tuesday before surging to $108 overnight. It was trading at $104 early Wednesday morning.

"A choppy start to the month so far, with oil and yields continuing to rise, while volatility is also gradually picking up. This comes after President Trump downplayed hopes of a new deal with Iran. Brent is off its overnight highs of approximately $97," UBS analyst Justinus Steinhorst wrote in an earlier note to clients.

At the start of the week, Goldman commodity expert Daan Struyven warned that global refinery runs are down 7 million barrels per day from last year and have averaged nearly 6 million barrels per day below seasonal norms since March.

Kelly Chen, a senior economist at DNB Carnegie, wrote in a note on Tuesday that China is one of the few countries with enough spare refining capacity to provide meaningful relief to the increasingly strained global market.

However, Chen pointed out that Beijing appears to have little economic or strategic incentive to rescue Western fuel markets (read that note here).

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 13:20

Hunter Biden, Who Slept With Late Brother's Widow, 'Comes Out As 48.6% Gay'

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Former first son Hunter Biden is now claiming that he is "48.6 percent gay," despite his long record of sexual activities with women, including allegations that he hired prostitutes and had a sexual relationship with the widow of his late brother, Beau Biden.

Appearing on The Luke Beasley Show on Aug. 16, Hunter affirmed that he is "a little" gay.

In response to Beasley's opening declaration, "Let's get serious. I am gay," Biden said, "Uh, really? Wow! Seriously? I'm so amazed you're gay."

Asked if he was gay, Hunter added, "Um, only a little bit."

"More or less than 50 percent?" Beasley asked.

"48.6," Biden replied. "Is this fucking serious?"

The two briefly quipped about whether Beasley would be Hunter's type, to which the former first son replied, "No."

The gay comments appeared to be part of Hunter's media campaign to quip about and counter some of the criticism that he has faced in recent years. He is married to a woman, Melissa Cohen. The couple has a 6-year-old child named Beau.

Hunter also has three daughters from his previous marriage to Kathleen Buhle. Hunter is also the father of 8-year-old Navy, whom he had with former girlfriend Lunden Roberts.

Hunter was also in a brief relationship with the widow of his late brother, Beau Biden.

Hunter was also spotted in several alleged sex tapes uncovered from his laptop. He has spoken candidly about his nudes being shared on social media and on the internet after the contents of his infamous laptop were released.

Some of the videos allegedly showed Hunter using what appeared to be drugs while engaging in sexual conduct with women, some of whom were believed to be prostitutes he allegedly hired.

Hunter has never faced any charges for prostitution-related offenses.

Instead, he was criminally indicted for failing to pay millions of dollars in taxes and for making false statements on a federal gun purchase form, in which he claimed he was not an active drug user.

He later affirmed in his book that he was consuming drugs during that period.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 13:00

The West's Answer To Break China's Tungsten Stranglehold Before Historic Rearmament Cycle Ramps

New reports emerged late Tuesday during the US cash session that the US military had struck targets inside Iran. If confirmed, the operation would mark a rare instance of US strikes occurring during regular market hours. Market(ing) tactics aside, the now six-month military campaign against Iran has also exposed a critical operational vulnerability: the US military is facing an alarming shortage of advanced missiles and interceptors.

However, the crisis extends well beyond procuring replacement missiles from major defense firms. The deeper vulnerability lies farther upstream, where the rare earths and critical materials required for guidance systems, seekers, propulsion components, warheads, and interceptors remain scarce and heavily concentrated in China, even as Beijing increasingly weaponizes export controls of metals against the West. 

On Monday, the Department of War said it had secured seven-year agreements with General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems and Lockheed Martin to rapidly expand US missile-production capacity and replenish depleted inventories.

The agreements are intended to increase output and accelerate deliveries of critical missile subcomponents supporting the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement interceptor.

A separate report from AP News highlighted another driver of defense demand: the US Army's new Precision Strike Missile, or PrSM, is intended to replace the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, which has served as the service's primary deep-strike weapon for decades. The PrSM's fragmentation warhead requires large quantities of tungsten pellets.

Tungsten is extremely effective as a penetrator because it combines one of the highest densities of any metal with the highest melting point. When a PrSM warhead detonates above its target, thousands of small, lethal tungsten pellets are dispersed at extreme speeds. The metal's density and ability to retain its shape enable those fragments to penetrate building walls, vehicle panels, equipment housings, and many forms of advanced armor after the initial blast wave has dissipated like a shotgun blast. 

This is where the DoW's historic weapons rearmament cycle collides with a critical materials supply crisis spreading across the Western world.

The State Department and DoW already understand the vulnerability. Tungsten, one of the most strategically important metals used across the defense-industrial base, is entering what investment research firm The Oregon Group has described as a major structural supply crisis.

A frantic effort is now underway across the West to secure non-Chinese tungsten. China accounted for about 79% of global mined tungsten production in 2025 and controls roughly 85% of refining capacity. Meanwhile, Chinese mine output has dropped 10% year over year, even as Beijing restricted tungsten exports to Western markets since early 2025.

The Oregon Group highlighted one of the clearest warnings yet: Even if every announced tungsten project ex-China reaches production by 2030, the global market could still face a massive structural deficit.

"Eleven announced mine projects are forecast to add nearly 20,000 tonnes of annual capacity by 2030, lifting accessible ex-China supply to an estimated 34,000 tonnes WO₃, against projected primary demand of roughly 50,000 tonnes after recycling, which would leave the market facing a deficit of 16,000 tonnes WO₃," the research firm stated in a new report.

#Tungsten prices surged 310% from Jan-July as China export controls squeezed supply.

And, by 2030, ex-China primary mine supply still projected to be in deficit by 16,000 tonnes.

📣 Tungsten price shock signals deeper supply crisishttps://t.co/enxErVsINb #mining #invest pic.twitter.com/ooovQTqibw

— The Oregon Group (@TheOregonGroup) August 31, 2026

That tightening physical market picture brings us to Almonty Industries, which controls the Sangdong mine in South Korea, one of the largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits outside China, as well as Panasqueira Mine in central Portugal, which is considered one of Europe's largest and oldest continuously operating tungsten and tin mines. 

With Sangdong ramping toward full production, Almonty has transitioned from a junior mining company into an increasingly important supplier to the Western defense-industrial base, one which is on the radar of the Trump administration. 

At planned Phase II capacity, Sangdong could produce roughly 4,000 tons of tungsten annually. That would represent about 4% to 5% of global mine production and around 20% of current tungsten output outside China.

In its latest investor deck, Almonty said it is "targeting to become the leading Western producer of tungsten by reaching expected full-scale production after completion of Sangdong Phase II and the Panasqueira L4 extension" by mid-2027.

Almonty CEO Lewis Black has previously said, "Almonty controls one of the largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits outside of China at precisely the moment Western governments and defense manufacturers are rebuilding their critical-minerals supply chains around non-Chinese sources."

The timing of Sangdong's planned move toward full-scale production by mid-2027 is significant because the DoW's supply clock is already ticking. The West's effort to break China's stranglehold over critical materials is colliding with a historic military rearmament cycle.

Tungsten demand extends well beyond defense, including as a critical building block in AI chips (read here). 

That convergence places Almonty at the center of the emerging conflict-free tungsten supply chain and could transform Sangdong and Panasqueira mines into one of the world's most important sources of non-Chinese tungsten.

Almonty is one of the handful of pure-play publicly traded miners positioned for the accelerating decoupling from Chinese critical materials . Among all publicly traded global tungsten miners, it's the only US-listed producer. 

Any post-Trump-Xi summit escalation next month, including potential sanctions against Chinese banks (Politico warns), could trigger further metal restrictions and sharply increase the value of tungsten currently priced above $3,000 a ton. 

That makes Almonty more than a tungsten trade.

Almonty is a pure-play bet on the West's first real shot at breaking China's 79% grip on mined tungsten before the rearmament cycle ramps up and before further possible export controls turn an already tight market into a severe shortage. Sangdong is already producing, Phase II begins next year, and the balance sheet is funded. This is a concentrated bet that one producer can help break Beijing's grip and become the swing supplier the US and its allies can rely on.

And in a preview of what is to come, Jefferies just initiated coverage (full report available to pro subscribers) on Almonty today with a Buy rating and a $26.25 price target, more than 50% upside from today's price. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 12:40

'Operation Rotten Apple': Nearly 2,200 Illegal Immigrants Arrested In New York

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) arrested nearly 2,200 illegal immigrants during an enforcement sweep in New York dubbed "Operation Rotten Apple," officials announced Sept. 1.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers participated in the operation from from July 27 to Aug. 29, arresting 2,197 illegal aliens across the state, including murderers, rapists, pedophiles, drug traffickers, and violent assailants, according to DHS.

"Thanks to the hard work of the men and women of ICE and our federal partners, Operation Rotten Apple did what sanctuary politicians in New York City and the state of New York refuse to do: made the Empire State safer," said Secretary Markwayne Mullin said in a statement.

New York Field Office Director Kenneth Genalo said federal immigration officers were harassed, threatened, targeted, and terrorized during the operation by local residents and community members.

The state's sanctuary policies allow criminals to be released back into the community instead of being handed over to federal immigration agencies, Genalo said during a press conference on Sept. 1. This forces federal immigration officers to locate the immigrants in their neighborhoods, at work, or in public spaces, he said.

"Local and state politicians continue to stand at podiums like this one and mislead the public about what these policies do," Genalo said. "And when elected officials excuse, minimize, or even celebrate the behavior, as they did in this case, they place a target on the back of the officers doing their jobs. ICE officers will not be intimidated by political rhetoric, sanctuary policies or street-level threats. Public safety is not optional. It is our duty."

New York's sanctuary policies have resulted in the release of 13,621 criminal illegal immigrants back onto the streets of New York, according to DHS.

Gov. Kathy Hochul rejected the accusations made by federal officials.

"New York works with federal law enforcement every day to take dangerous criminals off the streets," Hochul posted on X. "So spare us the theatrics."

Hochul also accused the federal government of not fully funding law enforcement in the state.

The illegal immigrants arrested included Bogdan Detrovich Gren from Ukraine. Gren was convicted of kidnapping, abduction resulting in death, criminal possession of a weapon, and murder.

Columbia national Andreas Bernal Chiquito was also arrested. His criminal history includes arrests for sexual conduct against a child and injury to a child less than 17.

Noel Celestino Lopez Martinez, an illegal alien from Mexico, was arrested. Martinez's history includes an arrest for first-degree rape and forcible compulsion.

Palvinder Singh, an illegal immigrant from India, was arrested during the operation as well. His criminal past includes a rape conviction in Germany.

Carlos Mendez-Acosta, an illegal alien from Venezuela, was arrested. His has been convicted of rape in the past.

Also arrested was Chhun Kim Pril, a Cambodia national who has a past conviction for drug trafficking.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 12:20

Dersh V Dave: Lawyer And Libertarian To Face Off Tonight On Iran War

LIVE NOW: 

https://t.co/nhqee1gb6k

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 2, 2026

*****************************

Tonight at 7pm ET, two prominent voices on opposite ends of the Iran debate will face off as constitutional lawyer and professor Alan Dershowitz debates  the world’s most famous libertarian, Dave Smith, over the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

Just days ago was the six month-mark for the conflict that has become considerably larger than the initial strikes on Iran's nuclear program in June of last year during “Midnight Hammer”.

I’m debating Alan Dershowitz tonight on the Iran war at 7pm ET hosted by Zerohedge moderated by @MarioNawfal

— Dave Smith (@ComicDaveSmith) September 2, 2026

After Israel and the United States launched their offensive in February, with major reporting (including in Israel) suggesting that it was Israel who killed Iran's Supreme Leader, the conflict has expanded into a prolonged war that has severely disrupted shipping out of the Strait of Hormuz for now over half a year. While actual bombing intensity has fluctuated as several peace attempts lapsed, it has picked up in recent days.

Dershowitz: "Bomb Iran"

Dershowitz had been making the case for military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities well before the current war began.

He argued on his podcast “Dershow” in April 2025 (before Midnight Hammer) that bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities was "absolutely essential to saving lives and to promoting peace in the Middle East and around the world."

Dershowitz argued that allowing Iran to acquire nuclear weapons would trigger a regional arms race and that Israel could not safely rely on deterrence. While he preferred a negotiated agreement, he ultimately concluded that military action was the only realistic alternative if Iran would not accept a deal permanently eliminating its nuclear capabilities.

"Bomb, bomb Iran. Not the people of Iran, not the people of Tehran, just the military targets, just the areas where they're developing nuclear weapons."

Months later, that debate is no longer hypothetical, so we look forward to hearing from Dershowitz specifically what Trump should do now?

Dave Smith And Anti-war Crowd Break With Trump

Smith backed Trump in 2024, in significant part because he believed Trump represented a better alternative to the interventionist foreign policy establishment (exemplified by Liz Cheney campaigning with Kamala Harris). But the Iran war fractured the coalition of anti-war voters who supported Trump.

By March, Smith was publicly arguing alongside Joe Rogan and Tucker Carlson that Trump had betrayed his base by taking the country into another Middle Eastern war.

For Smith, Iran was the final break. For Dershowitz, it was not only justified but something he had explicitly advocated before the first bombs fell.

Tonight at 7pm ET, they'll debate whether the war was necessary, what it has accomplished, and where President Trump should go from here. Watch live on the ZeroHedge homepage, X feed, and YouTube channel.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 12:00

House To Vote On Locking Supreme Court At 9 Justices As Democrats Float Expanding It

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times,

The House is expected to vote this week on a proposed constitutional amendment that would fix the size of the Supreme Court at nine justices. The number of justices is currently set by statute, which Congress can change by simple majority. If ratified, the amendment would place the figure in the Constitution, where changing it would require another amendment.

The measure, H.J. Res. 1, was introduced by Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and consists of a single sentence: "The Supreme Court of the United States shall be composed of nine justices consisting of one chief justice and eight associate justices."

Under Article V of the Constitution, a proposed amendment must pass both the House and the Senate by a two-thirds vote before going to the states. The resolution gives states seven years from the date of submission to ratify it, and ratification requires the legislatures of three-fourths of the states - 38 of 50.

Some Democrats have been pressing for a larger court. Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) introduced legislation on May 4 to increase the court from nine justices to 13, and other prominent Democrats such as former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, former Vice President Kamala Harris, and Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) have all recently floated a larger court.

Green's bill has no cosponsors and has not moved out of the Judiciary Committee. Earlier versions of the Judiciary Act, sponsored by Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.) in 2021 and 2023, also proposed a 13-justice court and did not receive a committee vote. The committee report on H.J. Res. 1 cites those bills as the reason for acting, saying a recent set of expansion proposals makes it necessary to fix the number in the Constitution.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) listed the resolution among the week's floor items in his weekly schedule preview, alongside a separate resolution from Rep. Jeff Crank (R-Colo.) condemning socialism and the Democratic Socialists of America.

"Radical left Democrats and the [Democratic Socialists of America] want to politicize and restructure the Supreme Court, effectively destroying the constitutional safeguards our Founders put in place," Scalise's office wrote in the preview. "For years, Democrats have called for packing the Supreme Court with more left-wing judges and now the [Democratic Socialists of America] is going even further by calling to abolish the Supreme Court and replace it with a judicial system subordinate to Congress."

Biggs said in a June statement after the resolution cleared committee that the court had become a target.

"Our nation's founders built a system of checks and balances to protect citizens from concentrated power - a central part being the U.S. Supreme Court, whose duty is to defend the rights and freedoms of every American, not to serve as a political tool for any party," Biggs said. "The judiciary was designed to be the quiet guardian of liberty, insulated from the passions of the moment. Unfortunately, special interests have been increasing their attacks on the Court, threatening to pack this iconic American institution to ensure favorable outcomes for their causes."

House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) told reporters on Tuesday that he would vote against the resolution and characterized it as a message vote timed to the midterm elections.

"This is such a fake issue that Republicans are putting on," Aguilar said. "The American public aren't asking about this. I went around the country, the vice chair did a bunch of travel, I did a bunch of travel. Nowhere, ever, are people saying, 'You know what we should do? We should cap the number of Supreme Court justices.'"

Aguilar said he expected the resolution to reach the floor on Wednesday and that he would oppose it.

"I understand that Republicans are gonna try to put up votes - socialism vote, Supreme Court justices," he said. "These are all just kind of show votes. Assuming that this passes a rule, I'll vote no, because this is just a complete show vote."

Asked whether Democrats who have called for adding seats put the party at odds with its own leadership, Aguilar said expansion is not what the caucus is pushing.

"The argument among folks in our party is we want to reform the court, but we've said very clearly that that should be a code of ethics that they actually follow," he said. "There needs to be real reform within the government side of what we do, and that's every branch of government. Democrats have been loud and clear about that, and we continue to advocate for that, and we will when we're in the majority."

Aguilar's framing tracks what House Democratic leaders said in May, when Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Caucus Vice Chair Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) each said judicial reform would be a priority if Democrats win the majority in November. Lieu said at the time that a Democratic majority would "usher in massive Supreme Court reform," and Jeffries listed "massive judicial reform" alongside electoral and campaign finance reform. Neither specified what changes they would seek.

Judiciary Committee Debate and History

The House Judiciary Committee approved the resolution on June 3 by a vote of 15-8. No Democrat on the committee voted to report the resolution to the floor.

In dissenting views filed with the committee report, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), the committee's ranking Democrat, criticized the vote as being about giving up congressional power rather than the number of justices.

"The question H.J. Res. 1 presents is not really about whether nine should suddenly become a magic number of justices for the Supreme Court," Raskin wrote. "It's about whether this Republican-controlled Congress - which has already surrendered congressional war powers, congressional taxing and tariff powers, and congressional spending powers to a president desiring to be a king - should now permanently relinquish another constitutional power that the Framers gave to us in Article I."

Raskin also accused the Supreme Court of being "profoundly partisan and lopsided" and wrote that the measure is meant to freeze the current court in place, pointing to the handling of two vacancies during President Barack Obama's and President Donald Trump's first terms.

He said that the amendment has no realistic path to becoming part of the Constitution.

Congress has changed the court's size several times, according to a Congressional Research Service report cited by the Judiciary Committee.

The Judiciary Act of 1789 created a six-member court. Congress voted in 1801 to reduce it to five, but that change never took effect - the law applied only once a seat came open, and Congress repealed it before any vacancy occurred.

Several statutes over the following decades changed the number again, reaching 10 justices during the Civil War, the largest the court has ever been. Congress cut the number to seven in 1866, again through attrition rather than removing sitting justices, then set it at nine in 1869. That was the last time Congress changed the court's size.

The report, "'Court Packing': Legislative Control over the Size of the Supreme Court," says scholars disagree about why Congress made those changes, with some pointing to practical needs such as caseload and others arguing they were driven by political considerations.

The committee report says that during the period when the court's size moved with the number of circuits, justices were also responsible for hearing cases in the lower federal courts, and that once that practice ended, there was no longer a reason to change the court's size as new lower courts were created.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 11:40

Second Largest US Grid Operator Proposes Reliability Rules For Data Centers

By Ethan Howland of UtilityDive

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator - the second largest US grid operator after PJM Interconnection - on Friday proposed a set of requirements large loads must meet before they can connect to the grid, including ramping and ride-through specifications.

The “interconnection reliability requirements” framework aims to improve MISO’s visibility into large load “characteristics and behavior, support reliable planning and operational decision-making, and establish scalable and technically justified expectations proportional to demonstrated reliability risk,” the grid operator said in its filing with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

The proposal is a part of MISO’s response to FERC’s mid-June “show cause” orders requiring major grid operators to set rules that meet certain criteria for adding data centers and other large loads to the grid. MISO said it plans to make additional proposals by a Nov. 16 deadline.

MISO’s proposal follows similar actions at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas and the PJM Interconnection aimed at setting reliability standards for large loads after several incidents where data centers suddenly tripped offline, raising concerns about grid stability.

On average, electric demand was relatively flat between 2009 and 2024, growing by about 0.5% a year, MISO told FERC. Now, the grid operator expects 1% to 2% annual growth through 2044, with higher growth rates in the near term, according to MISO, which runs the grid and wholesale power markets from Louisiana to Minnesota.

MISO’s proposal defines “large loads” as those larger than 50 MW, and “computational loads” as large loads that include at least 25 MW of demand from information technology equipment, such as servers, storage and networking hardware.

The separate computational load classification will allow MISO to target certain requirements just to data centers, the grid operator said.

“Computational loads may exhibit rapid and coordinated changes in demand, significant power-electronic behavior, and distinct responses to transmission system disturbances,” MISO said.

MISO’s proposed reliability framework sets requirements for its transmission customers that take service on behalf of large loads. It covers four main areas:

• Visibility requirements

To improve MISO’s visibility into large loads on its system, transmission customers must provide MISO with basic information and modeling data on large load facilities, according to the proposal. They must also provide real-time and day-ahead load forecasts for the facilities.

The information is needed “to support planning studies, operational assessments, and accurate representation of large loads behavior and system impacts,” MISO said.

• Phasor Measurement Unit requirements

The PMU requirements set monitoring expectations for computation loads through high-resolution, time-synchronized measurements, according to MISO.

“PMU data provides MISO with greater visibility into facility behavior during system disturbances and rapid operating changes, supporting model validation, performance verification, disturbance analysis, and identification of potential dynamic interactions with the transmission system,” MISO said. 

• Ramp requirements

MISO said its proposed ramp requirements address the rate at which computational loads may increase or decrease electric use during stable-state transitions. 

“Managing rapid changes in demand helps reduce real-time supply-demand imbalances, sudden change in transmission power flows, and associated operational impacts, while supporting more reliable system operation,” MISO said.

• Ride-through requirements

The proposed measures set minimum disturbance performance requirements for computational loads during voltage and frequency disturbances to reduce the risk of unnecessary disconnection or customer-initiated rapid reductions in demands during system events, MISO said. 

MISO’s proposal includes grandfathering provisions to provide certainty to existing and nearly complete commercial arrangements for large loads. MISO asked FERC to let its proposal take effect on Dec. 4.

MISO plans to file additional large load-related proposals, including for additional transmission products and associated study processes, protections against cost shifts and the treatment of generation service to “electrically proximate” large loads, MISO said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 11:00

WTI At 5-Week Highs As US-Iran Fighting Resumes; US Production At Record High As Cushing & SPR Hit 'Tank Bottoms'

Oil prices were volatile but are trading around unchanged this morning, but still near the highest closing level in five weeks (WTI topped $92 overnight) as hostilities broke out again between the US and Iran, renewing the threat to energy exports from the Middle East.

The US conducted a second day of strikes on the Islamic Republic overnight, with President Donald Trump threatening more attacks if Tehran responded. Within hours, Iran retaliated against Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait, countries that host American forces.

“The market is now clearly pricing in a direct military confrontation, while the prospect of a negotiated solution has diminished,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management in Copenhagen.

“This is a worse combination for the energy market than the situation we faced just a few days ago and even in April. Today, inventories are even more depleted.”

Priecs pared some gains this morning on Venezuela news and more much-debated news from Secretary Wright about 'shadow' flows through the Strait.

API

• Crude -2.6mm

• Cushing

• Gasoline +348k

• Distillates -265k

DOE

• Crude -4.45mm (+60k exp)

• Cushing +80k

• Gasoline -1.17mm

• Distillates +796k

US Crude stocks declined for the first time in five weeks (more than expected and more than API reported) while Gasoline stocks continued to drawdown and Cushing saw a de minimus build. Distillates stocks did see a build (good news) for the first time in five weeks...

Distillate supplies on the East Coast are now at record lows, while supplies on the West Coast are the lowest since May 2025. The vast majority of heating oil demand in the US occurs in the Northeast, so this is less than ideal with just a month to go before heating season starts.

Another brutal week for gasoline imports, which fell to 370,000 barrels a day last week. That’s below levels for the same time in 2020. There’s just not a lot of relief for markets desperate for more supply.

Amid all the clamor that Venezuela will be used to refill it, the SPR saw yet another drawdown last week (-3.12mm barrels) for the biggest overall crude draw since July...

The SPR is now at its lowest level since 1982...

US Crude production surged back to record highs...

Refinery crude refinery runs soared to the highest in seven years, as oil processing in both the Gulf Coast and Midwest moved higher, with the Midwest at an all-time record high. Runs on the Gulf Coast are the highest for this time of the year. 

WTI holding around $90...

The return to a hot war has once again thrust shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz into jeopardy, as the two sides remain at loggerheads and diplomatic efforts yield few results.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 10:45

Energy Secretary Wright Says Venezuela Could More Than Double Oil Production

Venezuela’s crude oil production rate could double in the next few years thanks to new deals set to be signed with U.S. and other foreign energy companies, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said. 

“The investment in these deals will massively grow available oil production, which will give downward pressure on oil prices, but the biggest kink right now in gasoline and diesel prices is refining capacity,” Wright said during a one-day visit to Caracas, as quoted by OilPrice.

Venezuela’s peak oil production rate was about 3 million barrels daily, but that was in the late 1990s. Since then, amid U.S. sanctions and underinvestment, production has dropped to 1.25 million barrels daily this year. Exports are running slightly above 1 million barrels daily, with the biggest portion going to U.S. refiners along the Gulf Coast.

Last week, news broke that the U.S. federal government was negotiating a direct ownership stake in the country’s high-yield field that contains combined reserves of 90 billion barrels of crude. At the end of last week, President Trump called the deal “historic”, covering 17 fields with target production of 1.5 million barrels per day. The deal will involve a U.S.-based company owned by a Venezuelan tycoon, which has already been granted 14 oil deals by the Venezuelan government.

The U.S. government will have rights to a 35% stake in the company plus access to 20% of North American Blue Energy Partners’ production at cost. The U.S. federal government will also have the right of first refusal for the purchase of the other 80% of NABEP’s production from Venezuelan fields.

Analysts have noted that such a major boost in Venezuelan crude oil production would require substantial investments, with Rystad Energy putting the total at some $180 billion, which would need to be invested over the next ten years.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 10:35

Factory Orders Rebound Strongly in July

Despite Manufacturing PMIs sliding, US Factory orders were expected to rebound from a two-month decline in July (the latest data reported today) and rebound they did, rising 0.9% MoM (more than the expected 0.7% increase) with June's 0.3% decline revised up to a 0.2% decline...

That is the best monthly rise since April, lifting orders up 9.9% YoY - the second best annual gain since Oct 2022!

Core Factory orders rose 0.6% MoM (significantly better than the expected 0.4% rise)...

That is the 8th rise in Core Orders in the last nine months with annual growth holding above 9% YoY.

And no, it wasn't all war spending as Ex-Defense, orders still rose 0.98% MoM and 8.79% YoY...

The final July headline and core durable goods order printed the same as the preliminary data (+1.1% MoM and +0.4% MoM respectively)

Headline durable goods orders are up 13.0% YoY!

But Orders and Shipments for Non-Defense, Ex-Aircraft Capital Goods fell notably from their preliminary levels (0.0% MoM vs 0.3% exp and +1.2% vs +1.4% exp respectively).

Hard to argue the economy is in trouble based on this data BUT this is July... so very stale.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 10:12

192 House Democrats Refuse To Condemn Socialism As Party Scrambles To Avert DSA Civil War

It is not surprising whatsoever that nearly every House Democrat voted against a Republican-led resolution condemning socialism, giving Republicans fresh campaign material for the upcoming midterm elections amid the rise of the cancerous Democratic Socialists of America within the increasingly unhinged left-wing party. 

The nonbinding resolution, introduced by Republican Rep. Jeff Crank of Colorado, called on Congress to denounce “socialism in all its forms,” reject socialist policies in the US and support implementation of President Trump’s election-security legislation.

The measure passed 220-192. All Republicans supported it, along with eight Democrats: Kathy Castor, Vicente Gonzalez, Henry Cuellar, Darren Soto, Jared Golden, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Don Davis and Gabe Vasquez.

“The DSA candidate platform stands in direct contrast to our republic,” Crank, who introduced the measure, said ahead of the vote. “Getting rid of the United States Senate, open borders, defunding the police, allowing non-citizens to vote in federal elections; those aren’t consistent with our Constitution.”

🚨 JUST IN: US House votes to condemn socialism and a whopping 192 DEMOCRATS VOTED AGAINST IT

Final vote: 220-192

Read that again: 192 House Democrats, a vast SUPERMAJORITY, support socialism!

This is terrifying.

Vote RED in November because our nation depends on it! 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/2poA8etyTS

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 1, 2026

To better understand DSA, we recently published a five-tiered “rainbow cake” mapping out the modern left, which places DSA on the far left within the reformist-socialist cohort.

Meanwhile, the unofficial spokesman for DSA, Hasan Piker, has called on his followers to “kill capitalist”...

Hasan Piker calls on his followers to kill capitalists:

“Yeah kill them! KiII those motherfuckers and murder those motherfuckers in the streets. Let the streets soak in their fucking red capitalist blood, dude.”

Democrats are campaigning with him. pic.twitter.com/YiZxGgRkgc

— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) April 9, 2026

As we’ve pointed out, the DSA is selling the American public on an affordability pitch, but the agenda really has nothing to do with that, considering that its members are far-left and hell-bent on what they describe, in their own words, as “destroying the nation from within.”

Recently, DSA Co-Chair Megan Romer confirmed her party’s radical agenda:

• Abolishing the Senate, presidency, and Supreme Court
• Abolishing ICE, borders and prisons
• Defunding the Pentagon
• Mass amnesty for illegals

DSA Co-Chair Megan Romer confirms their platform includes:

- Abolishing the Senate, presidency, & Supreme Court
- Abolishing ICE, borders, & prisons
- Defunding the Pentagon
- Mass amnesty for illegals pic.twitter.com/rPQiT9HCXN

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 26, 2026

This is all related:

• “Americans Deserve To Know”: State Dept. Report Details Cuban Espionage, Subversion, And Role In Rise Of Far Left

It’s coming...

DSA chapter plans ‘Riots and Uprisings’ reading club to study ‘how people struggled’ https://t.co/GZSEHsLDFj

— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) August 19, 2026

As we explained last month, citing Andy Laperriere, Piper Sandler's head of US policy research in Washington, younger Americans have no lived memory of Soviet breadlines or the refugee waves produced by failed communist states. That gap has made it easier to repackage far-left ideology without confronting its record.

Examples include:

• “Let’s Downsize”: Antifa Uses Instagram To Put ‘Luigi-Style’ Hit On Flock Camera CEO

The Democratic Party establishment is freaking out about DSA’s rise within the party. We’ve explained that socialist victories in local elections and the White House’s branding of DSA’s ascent as a communist takeover could benefit Republicans ahead of the midterms in five ways (read here). 

Musk overnight:

Joseph McCarthy was correct, one Communist was one too many.

However he didn’t go far enough to correct it. pic.twitter.com/0OhZ9LEIO6 https://t.co/l3WzALKwb3

— Zach Jones - Secretary of Psyops (@ZachJones1994) September 2, 2026

All in all, yesterday’s vote exposed the Democratic Party’s unwillingness to splinter the party and denounce DSA ahead of the midterms, because doing so would cause a civil war within the party. As for the American people, “destroying the nation from within,” as per DSA’s plan, is not a popular position among average voters.

Another headwind for DSA is that its socialist friends in South America have been rejected in a generational shift across a majority of those countries. Nomura expects the right-wing populist wave to gain momentum across Europe over the next 18 months, indicating that markets favor that shift.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 10:00

Yen Suddenly Spikes Sparking Intervention Chatter

Having broken hand held above 160/USD, this morning (as the G20 meeting comes to an end), the yen is suddenly spiking higher, prompting desk chatter of another intervention...

“The market remains on high intervention alert,” said Alex Cohen, a foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of America.

There was no obvious news or macro catalyst for such a move, and for now, there is no follow through but it appears 160 is the new line in the sand for the Bessent/BoJ plunge protectors.

Some traders suggested it was a simple stop-hunt (which could still be instigated by 'authorities').

“We hear rumors that this is intervention, but I am skeptical based on the size of the move,” said Andrew Hazlett, a foreign-exchange trader at Monex Inc.

Still, the moves in the yen against the dollar and euro “could not be explained otherwise.”

The magnitude of the move, however, fell short of those seen about a month ago, when Tokyo and Washington joined forces to support the yen to a degree unseen in decades, raising the stakes for anyone betting against the currency. Their first coordinated yen-buying operation since 1998 sparked a rally of about 5% from the weakest level in around four-decades near 164 per dollar, with both governments signaling further joint action if needed.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 09:35

Tokenmaxxing Turns To Layoffmaxxing: Uber Slashes Thousands In "Significant" Overhaul

Bloomberg obtained a letter from Uber Technologies CEO Dara Khosrowshahi to employees announcing "significant organizational changes" across the company aimed at reallocating spending toward delivery, artificial intelligence, and an increasingly expensive robotaxi buildout.

"Today, we're making several significant organizational changes across Uber. We are removing layers, simplifying team structures, refining our global location strategy, and focusing our people and investments against the biggest opportunities ahead of us," Khosrowshahi wrote in the letter.

The latest Bloomberg data show that, as of 2Q26, Uber employed 36,600 people across its global workforce, meaning a 10% cut equates to about 3,600 workers.

Uber will eliminate nearly half of its teams with only one or two members and reduce by 20% the number of employees positioned seven or more organizational layers below the CEO. In other words, the restructuring is impacting white-collar workers that AI agents can likely replace. 

The company is also combining engineering and science teams while consolidating its separate restaurant, retail, and white-label delivery operations.

There was a report earlier this year that Uber had blown through its AI budget within the first few months of the year after encouraging employees to use frontier models as aggressively as possible. 

We summed that up perfectly...

Tokenmaxxing -> Layoffmaxxing https://t.co/ZHHLQDhIHO

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 2, 2026

Savings from the restructuring will be reinvested in Uber's core ride-sharing and delivery platforms, as well as the company's effort to build what Khosrowshahi called an "autonomous future."

Uber has pledged to invest more than $10 billion in robotaxi partnerships over the coming years as it seeks to become the dominant top player for summoning autonomous vehicles. The company has already invested in Avride, Lucid, Nuro and Rivian while reducing stakes elsewhere to free up capital.

WAYMO IS FIGHTING THE ROBOTAXI WAR WITH AN EXPENSIVE & CLUNKY PROOF OF CONCEPT COMPARED TO A SLEEK TESLA MODEL

Eight boxy Waymos. One million dollars.

Each one a $125,000 science project: lidar hats, radar arrays, custom compute, a chassis that still costs more than some… pic.twitter.com/jkYTD78rJ3

— 🌋🌋 Deep₿lueCrypto 🌋🌋 (@DeepBlueCrypto) September 2, 2026

Khosrowshahi's companywide email in full: Team,

Team,

Today, we're making a number of significant organizational changes across Uber. We are removing layers, simplifying team structures, refining our global location strategy, and focusing our people and investments against the biggest opportunities ahead of us. As a result, we will be reducing the size of our team by about 10%. Everyone whose role has been affected has already been notified, except in countries where we will follow the required local process.

This wasn't a decision we made lightly, because it will have a real impact on our teammates and friends who have worked hard for Uber. It's important to say that these changes are about how we're organized and what we're prioritizing, not about anyone's contributions to Uber, which we always value.

I'm sure you're asking, 'Why, and why now?'—particularly since our business is performing so well. Over the last 5+ years, Uber has grown by orders of magnitude, with our top line nearly tripling. We've built new products, expanded into new businesses, reached more consumers and supported more earners, and become a much larger and stronger company. But that growth has also brought complexity: more layers, more coordination, more fragmented ownership, and in some cases structures that made sense when businesses were smaller but no longer serve us well at our current scale.

Our opportunity from here is enormous: we have the chance to bring Uber to hundreds of millions more people; to invest even more in drivers, couriers and merchants; and to innovate across our core businesses and build the autonomous future.

To do those things, we need to make deliberate choices about where we put our people, our time, and our capital.

The changes we're making today are designed to do two things: make Uber simpler and faster, and create more capacity to invest in our future. A leaner organization will mean clearer ownership, faster decisions, and more time spent building rather than coordinating. It will also generate savings that we intend to reinvest in growth, innovation, and the capabilities that will matter most over the coming years.

It's our job as leaders to make these difficult calls, and to give you transparency into our thinking and our decision-making process. Here's what we are doing and why:

• Organizational health: In Pulse surveys and conversations with many of you, we've heard that too much work requires coordination across teams, debates take too long, and decision-making rights are unclear. I'm sure many of you have felt that you spend too much time "aligning" rather than building, shipping, or serving customers. To improve this, we have reduced roles primarily focused on coordination, and have clarified the remit of the coordination roles that remain. We also cut down the number of management layers by broadening manager scopes, particularly where we had "micro-teams" of only 1-2 reports. In all, we've reduced the number of employees who sit 7+ layers from the CEO by 20% and the number of micro-teams by nearly 50%. The outcome is a simpler org chart geared toward building versus managing.
• Team simplification: We brought together teams where fragmentation was creating duplication and slowing decisions. The most significant example of this is Mac's decision to combine our three current Delivery Ops teams (across Restaurants, Retail, and Direct) into single-threaded teams at the global, regional, and country levels. Running these three businesses separately made sense in their early days, but that structure is no longer serving us at scale. Bringing the P&Ls together under single owners will reduce overlap, clarify accountability, and allow GMs to allocate capital more efficiently and effectively based on their strategic imperatives. Another example of this: in Tech, we're combining our Core Services Engineering and Science teams, mirroring the structure we already have on Mobility and Delivery.
• Location strategy: The benefits of sitting together, collaborating in person, and solving problems as a team are clearer than ever in our post-Covid world. With that in mind, we're establishing clearer principles for where roles and teams should be based, with the goal of concentrating teams in a smaller number of key hubs. Global teams will be concentrated in our largest global hubs, NY and SF; regional teams in designated regional hubs; local teams in country hubs; and tech teams in tech hubs. We'll prioritize co-location between managers and their teams wherever possible, particularly for earlier-career employees. We are also asking the vast majority of remote employees to move to an office, and going forward, only ~1% of employees will be remote. We'll also continue to reinforce compliance with our hybrid work policy, which requires three days a week in the office. You can read more about our location strategy here.

I realize this is a lot of change, but we decided it was better to make one big shift rather than multiple small ones. We also know organizational changes can be hugely distracting, and our job is to create an environment that allows you to focus and do your best work. With these decisions now made, our focus is on the future.

We have tremendous momentum, significant financial capacity, and opportunities in front of us that are larger than at any point since I joined the company. The decisions we're making today are difficult, but they will help us build an even stronger Uber for the years ahead.

You can read more about the changes across the company here, and please be sure to read specific follow-up information you'll receive from your leaders about what this means for your team, so we can all keep building together.

Uber on,
Dara

The restructuring follows a subdued stretch for Uber shares this year, which were down 8% year-to-date through Tuesday's close after trading largely range-bound between $70 and $80.

The market welcomed the cost-cutting measures, with shares gaining nearly 2% in premarket trading in New York.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 09:20

The Leipzig Incident Has All The Hallmarks Of A False Flag

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

It was carried out to justify the German economy’s evolution to war footing, distract from the resultant problems, and legitimize a future serious escalation against Russia.

Germany blamed Russia for last month’s incident in Leipzig when one explosives-laden drone was found on the tarmac in proximity to Ukrainian cargo planes, another reportedly collided with a separate cargo plane as it tried to land but failed to explode, and a third was later found close to the premises. Putin condemned their claim, shared his opinion that it was a false flag due to them planting evidence, and speculated that the motive was to distract from domestic problems by fearmongering about Russia.

While skeptics might roll their eyes, the Leipzig incident has all the hallmarks of a false flag.

• For starters, Germany is implying cartoonish incompetence on the part of Russia. The public is supposed to believe that the most skilled drone operators in the world, who were tasked with what would have been the most sensational Hybrid War attack on NATO ever, left a drone on the tarmac, got unlucky when another failed to explode after it hit a landing cargo plane, and left another nearby. That’s difficult to believe.

• The second point to make in support of Putin’s hypothesis is that something similar happened last fall when unknown drones forced major airports in Scandinavia to temporarily ground all flights. Zelensky predictably blamed Russia and called for closing the Danish Straits to its shipping. As with the Leipzig incident, no evidence was ever shared in support of that claim, but it served as the precedent to blame Russia for mysterious drone-related incidents in Europe in order to justify more escalations against it.

• And finally, while Zelensky’s proposed escalation ultimately never came to fruition (most likely to avoid a hot NATO-Russian war), an escalation of some sort might follow the Leipzig incident. It was argued here in late August that NATO would expect to gain more from a serious escalation with Russia than the inverse, which could take the form of resuming summer’s failed drone campaign against Russia at scale indefinitely in pursuit of its deindustrialization and demilitarization. That might be attempted next year.

Observers should remember that Germany, which is now Ukraine’s second-most-important military patron behind the US, reached a deal in the spring to develop Ukraine’s deep-strike capabilities. Its economy is also getting on war footing as Germany rapidly remilitarizes in furtherance of its goal to command Europe’s largest army ahead of the EU’s prediction of a possible war with Russia around 2030. This has proven unpopular with voters, however, ergo the need to justify it through the Leipzig incident.

To recap the explanation of Putin’s false flag hypothesis, last fall’s Russian drone scare in Scandinavia served as the pretext for blaming the Kremlin for future such incidents without evidence, which Germany has now done with the Leipzig one. The narrative of Russian drone operators’ incompetence is difficult to believe, however, but it’s still being pushed to justify the Germany economy’s evolution to war footing, distract from the resultant problems, and legitimize a future serious escalation against Russia.

As was written, this could take the form of resuming summer’s failed drone campaign against Russia at scale indefinitely in pursuit of its deindustrialization and demilitarization, but that risks crossing Russia’s nuclear threshold per its updated doctrine. At the very least, Putin would once again mildly “escalate to de-escalate” against Ukraine, but there’s always a chance that everything spirals out of control. It would therefore be best for Germany to eschew escalation just like the Scandinavian states ultimately did.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 08:45

Bloomberg Agri Index Posts Biggest Monthly Jump Since Arab Spring Riots As Food-Crisis Risks Mount

The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index (BCOMAGSP) posted its largest monthly gain since the chaotic days of the Arab Spring riots and is nearing a breakout above its 2023 highs, signaling a broad-based acceleration in agricultural commodity prices. The upside momentum comes as Wall Street increasingly warns that a perfect storm of factors, from El Niño and higher fertilizer and diesel prices to disruptions in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, could push the global food system toward another crisis.

From veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie turning bullish and UBS urging clients last week to "position for a commodity upcycle" to warnings from Barclays analyst Craig Rye and JPMorgan analyst Nora Szentivanyi, the message from Wall Street is becoming increasingly harder and harder to ignore: Agricultural prices are breaking out, raising the risk that today's physical commodity squeeze develops into a worldwide food crisis next year.

For August, BCOMAGSP logged an impressive 13.5% gain, its largest monthly increase since July 2012's 14.3% gain - around the time of Arab Spring spread across Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain. 

BCOMAGSP is up 39% from its 2024 low. If the upside momentum continues, the index, which tracks major crops and soft commodities, is poised to take out its 2023 highs.

Our latest coverage:

• Barclays Warns Next Commodity Shock Is Taking Shape: What You Need To Know
• Agricultural Commodity Prices Break Out As JPMorgan’s Food Crisis Warning Gets Louder

Snapshot of the broader commodity complex:

1. Hormuz tanker strikes send Brent above $92. Two oil tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz overnight. Brent traded around $92.20, up roughly 2%, while WTI traded between $87.80 and $88.00, up approximately 2.3% to 2.6%.

2. Gold falls below $4,400 as the 10-year yield approaches 4.79%. Spot and futures gold traded between approximately $4,370 and $4,400, down roughly 1.3% to 1.9% following Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks. Markets are pricing in approximately 60% odds of a September hike.

3. Silver breaks into the $65 range, while palladium fares worse. Silver traded between approximately $64.70 and $65.40, down 2.4% to 2.7%; palladium traded around $1,340, down roughly 2.8%; and platinum traded around $1,768, down approximately 1.5%. Gold and silver are selling off together with rising yields, suggesting this is not an isolated gold ETF liquidation.

4. Chinese refiners bid ESPO to a $7 premium over Brent. 

6. Long-term uranium hits another all-time high at approximately $96.50 per pound. The blended UxC and TradeTech long-term U3O8 price reached $96.50, while the UxC long-term price rose $2 to $96. Spot uranium traded between approximately $89.60 and $89.75, up roughly $3.

7. Distillate tightness remains the underreported oil story. Heating oil traded around $4.46, up 1.1%, while gasoline gained only 0.4% to approximately $3.09. Older but still relevant research continues to circulate showing US distillate inventories at 23-year lows and 13% to 14% below seasonal norms. Crude inventories are 6% below the five-year average following an eight-week, 47.5-million-barrel draw.

8. US Henry Hub remains weak at $2.92, while TTF and UK gas surge. NYMEX natural gas traded around $2.92, down 0.3%; TTF traded around €71.50, up 2.4%; and UK gas surged approximately 7%. US natural gas remains the orphan of the energy complex.

10. Copper slips roughly 1% despite the oil shock, highlighting the split between growth concerns and physical tightness. COMEX copper traded between approximately $6.51 and $6.61, down roughly 1.2%. Prices remain near cycle highs, with an August peak of approximately $6.75 and LME copper near $14,400 per ton. The physical-tightness and US inventory-migration story from August is fading into a rates- and growth-driven market.

11. Long-term breakouts in wheat and soybeans remain in play. Chicago wheat gained approximately 1.5% to 2%, trading between roughly 772 and 785, while soybeans gained around 1%, trading between approximately 1,288 and 1,301. Soft-commodity commentary indicates that wheat, soybeans and sugar have made long-term bullish breakouts, while cotton remains offered.

12. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is today's key event risk for the entire commodity complex. Foreign-exchange and commodity desks have flagged the ISM report as the session's primary catalyst on top of Warsh and Hormuz. A strong print could increase the odds of another rate hike, inflicting further pain on gold and silver while producing a mixed response in copper. A weak print could trigger a risk-off move that still lifts oil if interpreted as stagflationary.

13. Trump's SPR-for-Venezuelan-oil proposal and the country’s 65 billion barrels of reserves.

14. UAE refinery returns to full capacity after sustaining wartime damage.

15. Ukraine strikes the Ust-Luga oil terminal on the Baltic Sea.

16. Retail investors continue buying the gold dip, while CTAs and broader positioning appear offered.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 08:35

ADP Reports August Saw Weakest Job Growth Since January, Wage Growth Dips

Following a weak JOLTS report (and mixed manufacturing PMI employment reports), ADP was expected to report a modest 47k increase in American jobs in August.

It disappointed with only 37K jobs added in August (while July's 44k addition was revised up modestly to 46k)...

This is the weakest monthly addition since January.

Goods Producers shed jobs at the fastest pace since October...

Manufacturing, professional services, and information shed jobs.

Education and health care, construction, and leisure and hospitality all showed solid hiring.

Base Pay growth for job-stayers was unchanged at 3 percent, while pay growth for job-changers edged down...

Gross Pay growth for job-stayers was unchanged at 4.4 percent, while pay growth for job-changers slowed from 7.5 percent to 7.3 percent.

"Pay can tell us a lot about today's choppy hiring," said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

"To understand hiring patterns, you have to look deeply into where pay growth is accelerating, where it's slowing, and for whom."

Notably, Richardson concludes that "Once-predictable wage growth has been overtaken by the complexities of demographic change, persistent inflation, and AI's effects on jobs."

This doesn't bode well for Friday's payrolls report, and raises the question of whether The Fed will really hike rates with such weak employment data? Or is it all about its inflation-fighting credibility now?

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 08:25