Zero Rss

Berkshire Trolls The AI Bubble By Buying Macy's

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

For the better part of the last year, Wall Street has behaved like a teenager who just discovered Red Bull and leverage at the same time. Anything remotely tied to artificial intelligence has soared into the financial stratosphere.

Startups with no revenue, no profits, and occasionally no actual product are raising millions or billions because their founders can say the words “large language model”. Public company CEOs now jam “AI” into earnings calls with the same shamelessness that “trendy” gastropubs have when being the 4th “new” place on the block to not just offer a good ole’ fashioned cheeseburger, but the breathtaking innovation of a truffle aioli smashburger.

Meanwhile, looming over all of this market hysteria was Berkshire Hathaway and its absurd cash pile. More than $390 billion sitting on the sidelines while markets rocketed higher. The question became an obsession. What were Warren Buffett and his successor Greg Abel waiting for?

Surely this cash hoard was being preserved for some grand masterstroke. Maybe Berkshire would make a massive AI acquisition. Maybe it would take a huge stake in some futuristic robotics company whose product sounds vaguely dystopian. Maybe Buffett would emerge from Omaha wearing a black turtleneck and announce BerkshireGPT.

Nope. None of these. The filing arrived yesterday and Wall Street discovered that the answer was Macy’s: a company most people associate with buying last minute wedding gifts and wandering through perfume fog thick enough to qualify as weather.

In an era when investors are paying breathtaking multiples for companies promising that AI will revolutionize enterprise workflows, Berkshire appears to have strolled calmly into a department store hoping to get harassed by the Vancome lady.

It is notable to write about because it feels so aggressively out of sync with the cultural moment.

Right now entire hedge funds are building investment theses around the possibility that artificial intelligence may someday help your refrigerator compose emails and then there is Berkshire, quietly behaving like an investor that ignores market spectacle and focuses instead on underlying value. While others chase whatever appears most exciting in the moment, Berkshire tends to concentrate on businesses and assets that are durable, understandable, and often overlooked.

Berkshire likely was attracted to Macy’s because it combined several characteristics long associated with Buffett-style investing: a deeply discounted valuation trading near book value and at a low forward earnings multiple, substantial underlying real estate assets including the flagship Herald Square property, strong cash generation and shareholder returns through free cash flow and dividends, and a credible turnaround strategy focused on closing weaker stores while reinvesting in stronger locations.

Berkshire also likely recognized the enduring value of Macy’s higher-performing brands, particularly Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury, which provide growth and profitability beyond the traditional department store business. In fact, a lot of the reasons Berkshire bought Macy’s remind me of another retail stock that I think is similarly as attractive to own right now.

And this isn’t to say Berkshire is anti-technology. The company increased its stake in Alphabet and clearly understands where the economy is headed. But Berkshire has spent decades avoiding one of the central mistakes in modern investing: confusing a compelling narrative with a compelling investment. A transformative future does not automatically justify any price. Investors learned that during the dot-com bubble, when companies with weak earnings and questionable business models were treated as inevitable paths to wealth. Many eventually discovered that enthusiasm alone is not a substitute for sustainable economics. They will learn this again with the AI bubble.

That is what makes the Macy’s move so interesting. It suggests that Berkshire still sees value in businesses the market has largely dismissed as boring, outdated, or finished. Macy’s possesses valuable real estate, broad brand recognition, and consistent cash generation — qualities that can become easy to overlook in markets dominated by growth narratives. Perhaps most importantly, expectations surrounding the company have become so low that stability itself can exceed investor assumptions.

That may be the broader lesson for investors. Markets often become fixated on whatever appears revolutionary while overlooking companies that quietly generate profits in less glamorous industries. Investors naturally want exposure to the future, but there can also be opportunity in businesses that continue to serve enduring consumer needs and produce reliable cash flow.

Investors should also be careful about dismissing Berkshire Hathaway simply because it appears old-fashioned in an era defined by speed and disruption. Yet Berkshire has continued to compound wealth across market cycles while many trend-driven strategies have struggled to deliver lasting results.

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The lesson is not that investors should rush to buy Macy’s. It is that when disciplined long-term investors begin allocating capital to areas the broader market has written off, it is worth paying attention. Wall Street is often drawn to what is new and exciting. Berkshire has historically succeeded by identifying value where others stopped looking.

Another lesson is that patience remains one of the most underappreciated advantages in investing. Modern markets reward constant activity, rapid reactions, and short-term narratives, but Buffett’s track record has repeatedly demonstrated the power of allowing investments time to mature. Companies facing temporary pessimism or cyclical weakness are often abandoned long before their underlying economics can recover. Berkshire’s approach suggests that long-term value is frequently created not through constant trading, but through disciplined conviction and the willingness to endure periods of unpopularity.

There is also a lesson about temperament. Successful investing is often less about predicting the future perfectly and more about avoiding emotional decision-making when sentiment becomes extreme. During periods of market excitement, investors can feel pressure to chase momentum and follow consensus thinking. Conversely, when industries fall out of favor, fear and pessimism can create opportunities for investors willing to evaluate businesses on fundamentals rather than headlines. Berkshire’s history reflects an investment philosophy grounded in rationality and discipline rather than market emotion.

Finally, Berkshire’s strategy highlights the importance of understanding the difference between a good company and a good stock at a particular price. Even strong businesses can become poor investments when expectations become unrealistic, while unpopular companies can sometimes offer attractive risk-reward profiles if expectations fall too far. The broader lesson is not that every overlooked stock represents hidden value, but that investors benefit from questioning consensus assumptions. Markets are highly efficient much of the time, but periods of excessive optimism and excessive pessimism continue to create opportunities for patient, disciplined capital allocators.

Now read:

• Under The Chaos, One Stock Still Looks Cheap
• The Fed Will Invent New Inflation Numbers Out Of Thin Air
• Your Retirement Is Being Used To Buy Wall Street's Toxic Sludge...Again
• Bonds Are Screaming "Something's Wrong"
• This Rally Ends In Panic
• Time For Rate Hikes

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QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 11:25

"Door Of Doom" Looms As 30 Year Yield Soars To 19 Year High After Two Huge Treasury Block Sales

Bond yields continued to move sharply higher today, driven in large part by the aggressive repricing in the oil strip as markets (finally) price in a lengthy disruption to Hormuz traffic which has pushed year-end prices higher by about $12 in the past month.

The result has been a spike across virtually all tenors:

• *US 2-YEAR YIELD RISES TO 4.11%, HIGHEST SINCE FEBRUARY 2025

• *TREASURY 5- AND 7-YEAR YIELDS RISE 10 BASIS POINTS ON DAY

• *US 30-YEAR YIELD RISES TO 5.195%, HIGHEST SINCE JULY 2007

... as can be seen below, with the 30Y yield rising above 5.19% and the highest since 2007

According to Bloomberg, the latest spike higher in 10Y yields which is reverberating across the curve...

... is due to a block of 23,000 contracts in 10-year bond June futures traded at a price of 108-25+ on CBOT.

A total of 1.34 million contracts traded so far in this session.

Two minutes later 20,000 was also blocked at 108-24+ with price action around the two trades consistent with sellers. 

The combined amount of risk weighting over the two trades equates to $2.8m/DV01.

On May 13, there were identical size block buyers at levels of 110-00 (20,000) and 109-30 (23,000).

The two sales Tuesday point to the unwind/loss liquidation of these long positions established May 13.

As Nomura's Charlie McElligott notes, the resumption of investor focus on reaccelerating inflation (both due to 1--the obvious lack of progress with Iran and the Energy / Petrochem “supply shock” as emergency inventories are depleting rapidly, plus 2—signals of an “overheating” US economic risk ironically from the “demand” / FCI -side) have repriced the global central bank policy path “hawkish-ly” while FOMC outlook at the very least is “less dovish-ly” with high pricing of “No Fed Cuts” -scenario through YE and real Delta of the dreaded “Fed Hikes” -potential by YE too.

Bloomberg technical analysts note that the 30-year Treasury yield is right at a key technical level, a break of which targets 5.44% unless liability-driven investors step in to arrest the selloff. The 10-year yield may make a new range if the 4.66% level holds. 

But more importantly, the 30Y is about to rise above 5.20%, some 20bps higher than what Michael Hartnett warned in his last two Flow Shows is the "door of doom" red line for the bond market.

And stocks are starting to notice. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 10:45

"Stop Hiring Humans" Billboards Are Appearing In US Cities...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

“Stop Hiring Humans.” Those words are now plastered on billboards from San Francisco to New York City, courtesy of a San Francisco-based startup pushing virtual AI sales representatives.

The company, Artisan, markets AI agents that handle outbound sales tasks like lead generation, cold emailing, list-building, and prospecting. Their message is blunt: the era of AI employees is here.

Artisan’s campaign highlights a growing trend of AI replacing human roles in sales and beyond.

This is so dystopian

“Stop Hiring Humans” billboards are being put up from San Francisco to New York City

The company behind the ads is a San Francisco based startup that builds virtual artificial intelligence sales reps

“The Era of AI Employees Is Here”

This particular… pic.twitter.com/LGiMtNpWYv

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) May 15, 2026

The startup claims its tools could displace as many as 600,000 jobs in America over the next 5-10 years.

The billboards declare “The Era of AI Employees Is Here,” framing human workers as obsolete. Critics see it as tone-deaf marketing that accelerates public backlash against Big Tech’s rush to automate everything.

Driverless cars and a stop hiring humans campaign…

If this is the future, it is HELL pic.twitter.com/kl5sPIfmdr

— Amy Kremer (@AmyKremer) May 17, 2026

In response to the backlash, Artisan CEO Jaspar Carmichael-Jack published a detailed blog post clarifying the campaign’s intent. He argued that the slogan targets a specific category of tedious cold outbound work—email blasting, template churn, and list-building—that burns people out with short tenures and high rejection rates.

The company insists it does not seek to eliminate entire BDR roles, emphasizing that cold calling and human connection remain human tasks. Artisan also built a human dialer to complement its AI tool Ava, positioning the technology as working “alongside” people rather than replacing them outright.

https://t.co/DtnQ2PnnGT

— Maria🌱 (@_estela86) May 17, 2026

Carmichael-Jack acknowledged the billboard as deliberate provocation while advocating for policies like meaningful universal income and shorter workweeks to manage the transition.

Nevertheless, the move fits a pattern of accelerating AI deployment with little regard for human consequences. Reports continue to emerge of autonomous AI agents exhibiting rogue behavior in controlled environments and real-world applications.

Recent incidents show agents not only replacing workers but acting independently in ways that destroy critical systems—raising alarms about a future where humans are sidelined and technology runs unchecked.

In one high-profile case, a Cursor AI agent powered by Claude Opus 4.6 deleted an entire startup’s production database in seconds.

The agent, tasked with routine work, encountered a credential mismatch and independently decided to delete a volume on Railway cloud servers—wiping out the production database and all backups. The founder of PocketOS detailed the nine-second catastrophe, which caused a 30-hour outage. The AI later admitted to violating its guardrails.

This wasn’t an isolated glitch. Earlier experiments placed AI bots in a simulated virtual town for two weeks, where they quickly descended into chaotic, unpredictable behavior—prompting fresh concerns about what happens when autonomy meets real systems.

Even more dystopian twists have emerged, with AI bots reportedly “renting” humans for bizarre tasks, racking up hundreds of thousands of sign-ups as the lines between machine direction and human labor blur into something unsettling.

These developments underscore a core problem: as AI agents gain more independence to pursue goals, they bypass safeguards, access unrelated credentials, and make destructive decisions without human oversight. Enterprises are deploying them rapidly, but governance lags dangerously behind.

While tech boosters tout efficiency, the billboard campaign and job displacement projections strike a nerve. Sales roles—often entry points for young workers or career ladders—face direct targeting.

Broader automation in driving, customer service, and knowledge work compounds the pressure. Public reactions on X captured the frustration: concerns over driverless Waymo fleets in cities like Los Angeles despite available human drivers, and warnings that mass unemployment could fuel social instability.

One tech professional with over 20 years of experience pushed back against the “humans are worthless” narrative pushed by some influencers, arguing AI should enhance human work rather than devalue it. Others noted the irony: these AI-pushing startups rely on human investors and customers while trying to eliminate human jobs.

China offers a cautionary glimpse, where heavy robot adoption has forced worker pay cuts and displacement on a massive scale. In the West, the push feels aligned with a globalist mindset that prioritizes efficiency and control over local workers and communities.

The speed of these developments leaves little room for thoughtful policy. Pro-freedom voices have long warned against over-reliance on systems vulnerable to failure, manipulation, or emergent behaviors. When AI agents can independently wipe databases, fabricate data, or direct human labor in strange ways, the risks extend beyond economics into security and societal trust.

The billboards are up. The incidents are piling up. The question is whether policymakers and citizens will push back before the era of AI “employees” leaves millions with no role left to play.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 10:15

"Cautious Optimism": US Pending Home Sales Rise For 3rd Straight Month In April

Pending home sales were expected to rise for the third straight month in April (after crashing to record lows to end last year) as mortgage rates stabilized amid war worries, and they did, rising 1.4% MoM (better than the 1.0% expected) with March's gains revised higher too.

Source: Bloomberg

This left pending home sales up 3.35% YoY - the best annual gain since Nov 2024 - lifting the index off record lows...

Source: Bloomberg

The report suggests the housing market was finding some footing entering the busiest selling season of the year, helped by gradually improving affordability since mid-2025.

“Buyers are coming out with cautious optimism despite increasing economic uncertainty and a slight rise in mortgage rates,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

That said, lower-income prospective buyers remain challenged by high mortgage rates and elevated asking prices.

There has been a notable decoupling between rates and pending sales with the recent rise in rates coinciding with a rise in sales (bit of course, sales are lagged relative to rates, by typically a month or more)...

Contract signings increased last month in three of four US regions.

Pending sales declined in the South, the biggest housing market in the country, after solid increases in the prior two months.

As a reminder, because houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold, the pending home sales data tend to be a leading indicator of closings that are captured in the monthly previously owned home sales reports.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 10:08

Striking

By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

Striking

Trump said that he had delayed a planned military strike on Tuesday, at the request of Qatar, Saudia Arabia, and the UAE. According to Trump, the leaders of the Gulf states had asked the US to call off the attack because “serious negotiations are now taking place,” which could lead to a deal that is acceptable to the US and its Middle Eastern allies.

In earlier stages of the conflict, such news would probably have caused a rally in stocks. But it seems that buyers may be on strike, or are at least fatigued. The S&P 500 briefly jumped from its intraday low, but this was insufficient to end the day in the green. Asian equity markets are trading relatively close to home today, too.

Perhaps that’s because, as much as Trump claims that “serious negotiations” are currently ongoing, yesterday’s news flow suggests that the key sticking points remain unresolved. So, this is either a genuine last attempt to get to a peace deal that the Gulf states may prefer over the damage from war, or it is another flip-flop after Washington rejected an Iranian draft plan that was made over the weekend.

Iran may have since made a new proposal. Newspaper Al Arabiya reported that Iran could agree to a long-term pause of its nuclear program. And instead of demanding war reparations, Iran now reportedly asks for economic concessions. Even if these reports are true, a long-term pause is not the same as completely dismantling the nuclear program – will that be sufficient for the US?

The New York Post suggests it is not. In a phone interview, President Trump told the paper that he’s “not open to anything right now,” adding that “they want to make a deal more than ever because they know we’re – what’s going to be happening soon.” However, separately, Trump has also said that he could agree to an Iranian commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons – if the Gulf states are content with that.

Whether it’s a genuine attempt or not, it will probably encourage Iranian hardliners, making a resumption of the conflict more likely. Tehran still seems to be digging in. Iranian media reported that fundamental differences between the two sides remain. Despite amendments, Iran still views the US’ demands as “excessive and unrealistic.”

So, a darker scenario of a return to bombing campaigns may be averted – for now. And lack of escalation or resolution of the conflict means that financial markets continue to wait for new direction – sending oil prices sharply higher or lower, depending on whether the outlook improves or suddenly deteriorates. Meanwhile, the US Treasury has extended the sanctions waiver on Russian crude until June 17, after the previous waiver expired a few days ago – to contain price spikes where possible.

However, as we noted yesterday, a grinding stalemate would be bad enough for global energy stocks, and economic outlooks. The International Energy Agency warned that stockpiles are “depleting very fast.”

That’s not yet the case everywhere. European refiners and airlines are backtracking on their earlier warnings that kerosine could run out over the summer. They now have “almost zero” concerns that jet fuel could run out over summer. Refiners have increased production, and higher imports from the US, Nigeria and Norway have also helped to stabilize supply. It’s the price mechanism at work: jet fuel prices surged in April and are currently around 60% above pre-war levels.

CHART OF THE DAY: The global jet fuel market is small, accounting for <7.5% of total oil demand, so relatively minor changes in refining output and airline consumption can shift the supply-and-demand balance.

And refiners are on "max" jet fuel mode 📈⤵️.

Link on reply pic.twitter.com/R9zugMljlJ

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) May 18, 2026

Higher prices may incentivize redirection of supplies to areas that can afford them, but those countries that cannot are starting to face supply constraints. Several Asian countries have already been grappling with shortages, and the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has thrown Cuba in a full-blown energy crisis.

On top of the energy crisis, US intelligence is putting further pressure on Havana to strike a deal with the US. A US intelligence report claims that Cuba has acquired 300 drones that are capable of striking US bases at Guantanamo Bay, military vessels, and possibly even Florida – adding that Cuba has started to discuss plans to use them. Raising the tensions between both nations, the US has sanctioned 11 Cuban officials, “to address the pressing national security threats posed by Cuba’s communist regime.”

Havana, in turn, is concerned that the report would be used as pretext for a military operation against it. President Trump has threatened Cuban leaders with a fate similar to Venezuela’s Maduro earlier this year. The US National Security Strategy –and recent military interventions– suggests that the White House is willing to strike, if it means that Washington can install a more US-friendly government.

Indeed, developments since the start of the year indicate that the Trump administration continues to seek more control over its hemisphere. The world may have forgotten about Greenland for a bit, but Trump reportedly has not.

Talks about US-Greenland relations have been ongoing for the past couple of months. A week ago, there seemed to be some progress defusing tensions – with the US and Denmark reportedly agreeing to three new military bases, which would be formally designated as US sovereign territory. However, the New York Times now reports that Washington still seeks greater influence and control over Greenland.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 09:05

Pentagon Urged No Resumption Of Strikes As Iran Grew More Effective Tracking US Air Ops: NYT

President Trump had on Monday announced he agreed to pause planned Iran strikes, which were supposedly going to resume Tuesday, because UAE & Saudi Arabia asked him to as they said the sides are getting close to a deal.

However, Pentagon officials have told The New York Times they urged halting of strikes because of intelligence shows Iran has grown more effective at tracking US air operations and strengthening its air defenses, making the potential for significant aerial losses by the US a greater likelihood in any new major campaign in Iran's skies.

via Tasnim

"Based on my respect for the above mentioned Leaders, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, The Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and The United States Military, that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Trump described that the Arab states requested the delay because "serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond."

But in a fresh report titled "Trump Threatens Iran and Then Pulls Back, All in the Same Day" - The NY Times pushed back with the following:

Iran has used the ceasefire to successfully dig out all bombed ballistic missile sites, making them fully operational again. Iran also moved a large number of new mobile launchers across the entire country and adjusted tactics for any resumption of strikes, per a US military official. Iranian commanders studied US fighter jet and bomber flight patterns with close Russian and Chinese help. The recent downing of an F-15E and groundfire striking an F-35 revealed American flight tactics had become "too predictable."

While kinetic operations have been paused since Trump declared a ceasefire on April 8, Tehran was apparently treating the diplomatic timeout as a massive engineering and re-arming window. US officials have on several occasions hinted at this reality, as has Trump himself at times.

To complicate any future American target lists, the Iranian military has also reportedly dispersed a massive fleet of new mobile missile launchers across the entire country, completely overhauling their deployment tactics ahead of any potential resumption of US strikes.

In essence, despite the US touting total aerial superiority in the 38-days of initial bombing, Tehran has effectively neutralized the impact of the initial air campaign. If or when the ceasefire officially collapses, Washington could be looking at a heavily upgraded, highly adaptable adversary.

Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for Iran's Parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, has this week declared that Iran was "prepared for all scenarios," as cited in state IRIB. 

Trump held off on additional strikes partly because Pentagon officials warned Iran was adapting to the air campaign.

Iranian commanders had studied U.S. fighter and bomber flight patterns — possibly with Russian assistance — making American operations more predictable and… pic.twitter.com/ylPgb8r7Q6

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 19, 2026

"The Americans must either submit to diplomacy and our conditions or submit to the power of our missiles," he added.

When the White House first initiated Operation Epic Fury, it was hyped as presenting the opportunity for a clean tactical victory likely to result in swift regime change; however, it has officially morphed into yet another classic, grinding Washington Mideast dilemma. President Trump now finds himself boxed into a high-stakes corner with no easy exit ramp in sight - he can appear 'weak' through inaction, or pursue escalation and potential quagmire with likely disastrous economic and political consequences at home.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 08:45

Futures Fall As Momentum Cracks Grow With Yields And Oil Higher

US equity futures are lower, set for a 3rd drop in a row, as traders waited for futile signs of progress toward a peace deal in the Middle East. and as tech and small cap stocks reacted adversely to higher bond yields around the globe, but nowhere more so than in Japan, where many tenors are trading at record lows, as the wheels have fully come off the clown bus, aka the Bank of Japan. As of 7:30am ET, Nasdaq 100 futures slid 0.8% as a retreat in tech shares pulled stocks lower in the US and Asia; S&P futures were down 0.4%, putting the benchmark on course for its longest losing streak since March. In premarket trading, semis/memory names remain under pressure; GOOGL and MSFT outperformed their Mag 7 peers, with Nvidia’s earnings looming as the next major test for the AI trade. Sandisk slipped again as the selloff in memory stocks continued. Financials and Staples are two of the bright spots despite Defensives generally leading Cyclicals. South Korea’s Kospi - ground zero of the global memory momentum bubble - led losses in Asia as  the momentum trade cracks (with foreign investors pulling money for a 9th straight day). Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.7% as media and financial services outperformed: the continent's outperformance may be the market expressing the view that the next rotation is underway. The USD traded near session highs, reversing a modest drop earlier, which helped send 10Y yields to session highs around 4.62%. Oil reversed overnight losses to trade at session highs while. Commodities are mixed after Trump said he is delaying Iranian attacks due to GCC requests to find a deal. Today’s macro data focus is on weekly ADP and Pending Home Sales. Given bond yields, the Goldilocks zone for ADP has narrowed: too high and inflation concerns flare and too low and the narrative shifts to stagflation.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower as Alphabet and Microsoft outperformed their Mag 7 peers, with Nvidia’s earnings looming as the next major test for the AI trade. Sandisk Corp. slipped as the selloff in memory stocks continued. (Alphabet +0.5, Microsoft +1, Meta -0.3, Amazon -0.7%, Apple -0.6%, Nvidia -0.7%, Tesla -1%).

• Agilysys (AGYS) is up 15% after the hospitality software company reported its fourth-quarter results.
• Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) rises 12% as the Securities and Exchange Commission is said to ready plans for trading crypto versions of stocks.
• XP (XP) falls 5.9% after the Brazilian asset management company reported first-quarter earnings that missed estimates. Revenues from fixed-income products sold to retail clients were especially weak, analysts said, weighed down by elevated interest rates.
• Agilysys (AGYS) rises 20% after the hospitality software company posted quarterly results that topped estimates.
• Amer Sports (AS) rises 4% after it raised full-year guidance and first-quarter results beat estimates, buoyed by demand for Salomon shoes.
• Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) rises 12% as the Securities and Exchange Commission is said to ready plans for trading crypto versions of stocks.
• Relay Therapeutics (RLAY) rises 14% after the drug developer gave initial clinical data from a mid-stage trial to treat vascular anomalies. TD Cowen calls the data “best case scenario.”
• Stubhub (STUB) rises 4% as Guggenheim Securities upgrades to buy from neutral citing upside to 2026 numbers.
• XP (XP) falls 4% after the Brazilian asset management company reported first-quarter earnings that missed estimates. Revenues from fixed-income products sold to retail clients were especially weak, analysts said, weighed down by elevated interest rates.

In other corporate news, Clear Street is cutting jobs and replacing its CEO, as the Wall Street brokerage firm pivots after abandoning a plan to go public earlier this year. Google agreed to create an AI cloud business with Blackstone, aiming to compete with companies like CoreWeave in a burgeoning market. A jury rejected Elon Musk’s claims that OpenAI betrayed its mission to benefit the public by morphing into a for-profit business, finding that he waited too long to sue the company. Meanwhile, the “Muskonomy” imminently gets a second stock with the SpaceX IPO and that could create problems for Tesla, as explored in the latest Tech Watch column. 

The AI/momentum rally is faltering after powering global equities to record highs in the face of rising bond yields and elevated crude prices. As noted last night, the two-day drop in high beta momentum was the biggest since 2022.

Momentum is having its worst two-day selloff since 2022, posting back-to-back 5%+ unwinds, also first time since 2022: GS pic.twitter.com/c47YFuj9Uv

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 18, 2026

The recent boom in pockets of the market such as semiconductors and non-profitable tech has traders wondering if the next move is buy the dip or sustained rotation into other places. At the same time, lagging sectors such as healthcare are catching up after underperforming over the past few weeks. 

Meanwhile, asset allocators increased their equity exposure to stocks by the most on record to a net 50% overweight from 13% last month, and are now most overweight stocks since January 2022, Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey shows. The most crowded trade, referenced by 73% of respondents, is long semiconductors, followed by long Mag-7 (14%) and long oil (6%). 

JPMorgan Market Intelligence desk expects any pullback to be short-lived, dips will likely be bought on the strength in macro and micro, the return of retail investors, the perceived restart of corporate buybacks, and a generally positive take on impending market catalysts.

“The performance of the semis has been parabolic, so it’s not surprising there’s some profit-taking,” said Roger Lee, head of equity strategy at Cavendish. “Maybe there is also an element of the returning doubts over the monetization of AI.”

Hedging costs appear to be picking up, with normalized skews on the major indexes increasing from last week’s trough, which saw Nasdaq 100 sentiment the most bullish in more than a year.

Speaking of AI, so far the only tangible benefit is scapegoating it for mass layoffs: the recent trend of job cuts on the back of "AI efficiencies" continues to make headlines. Meta is reassigning 7,000 workers to new jobs related to AI, according to an internal memo, part of a broad corporate restructuring that includes planned staff reductions later this week. Standard Chartered said it would cut corporate functions roles by more than 15% by 2030 and scale practical uses of AI to streamline processes.

And then there is the war in iran. “Investors are desperate for the Middle East conflict to end as that should, in theory, help to bring down oil prices, dampen talk of rate hikes, and switch the conversation back to economic growth,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell. “For now, the conflict rumbles on and investors remain slightly cautious.”

After oil-driven inflation drove bond yields steadily higher since the start of the war in the Middle East, traders are now zeroing in on 5.5% as the next key level for 30-year Treasuries, according to Citigroup Inc. strategist Jim McCormick.

“I see markets underpricing the risk of a Fed rate hike starting this year,” he said. Swap traders are currently leaning toward a 25 basis point increase in December, with a move fully priced for March next year.

Nicolas Bickel, group head of investment for private banking at Edmond de Rothschild, told Bloomberg TV he wouldn’t be surprised to see 10-year US yields at 5%. The rate rose three basis points to 4.62% on Tuesday. “If we have higher inflation and growth stays steady, it will not be an issue,” he said.

In political news, Trump announced his administration is adding more than 600 generic medications to its direct-to-consumer drug sales website TrumpRx alongside billionaire Mark Cuban. The SEC is poised to roll out a plan for trading digital versions of securities that could reshape the landscape of the American stock market as it continues to loosen the rules for free-wheeling crypto markets. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is thus far avoiding declines and is up by 0.7%, led by media, financial services and retail stocks. Most sectors advance, with the basic resources subindex the only significant decliner. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Evolution gains as much as 13%, the most since Oct. 2024, after the Swedish online gambling company approved a €2 billion share buyback program. Analysts say the size of the buyback program is a welcome signal of confidence
• IG Group shares rise as much as 9.8% to a new high after first-quarter revenue beat analysts’ forecasts and the online trading company lifted its full-year guidance
• Intrum gains as much as 18% after UBS upgraded the Swedish credit services group to buy from neutral, saying the announcement of a fully-underwritten capital increase is a “clear inflection point for the equity story”
• Lagercrantz gains as much as 8.5% to a record high after the Swedish industrial group reported earnings ahead of estimates. DNB Carnegie describes the update as very solid, citing a high pace of acquisitions during the year
• Currys shares gain as much as 12% after a trading update and are now in positive territory for the year. Analysts welcomed a third consecutive upgrade to pretax profit guidance
• Hansa Biopharma gains as much as 30% after the company sold the exclusive development and commercialization rights to Idefirix in the EU, UK, Switzerland, Norway, Liechtenstein, Iceland and the Middle East and North Africa regions
• Vallourec falls as much as 11%, the most since July 2024, after ArcelorMittal sold shares in the French tubular solutions company at a discount. Morgan Stanley calls the news a surprise
• Grieg Seafood falls as much as 8.1%, the most in a month, after the Norwegian fisheries firm posted weak results and trimmed full-year forecasts, which analysts expect will cause consensus estimates to be slashed
• Boxer declined as much as 5.8% after Pick n Pay Stores raised 4.7 billion rand by selling 57.3 million ordinary shares of the retailer — representing 12.5% of Boxer’s total issued shares — through an accelerated bookbuild offering
• Forterra shares slip as much as 7.9% to the lowest since November 2023 after the UK brickmaker reported soft trading and gave cautious commentary for FY26
• Nanobiotix shares drop as much as 9.5%, falling for a third day after hitting a record last week. That trimmed the French biotechnology company’s rally since the FDA accepted a streamlined trial design in early May for its experimental cancer drug

Asian stocks dropped for a third session as a lack of clarity over an Iran peace deal and elevated global bond yields weighed on risk sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.9%, heading for its longest losing streak since March. South Korea’s Kospi Index was one of the worst performers, tumbling more than 3% as rising bond yields dulled the appeal of growth stocks like chipmakers. Risk appetite remained muted even after President Donald Trump said he was holding off on fresh strikes on Iran, as investors focused on elevated oil prices that have fanned inflation concerns. Those worries are keeping bond yields higher for longer, offsetting optimism over the benefits of the artificial intelligence boom. “Global bond yields moving higher are sending a clear reality check: sustained high energy prices could bring tighter monetary conditions sooner rather than later,” according to Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. 

Over the past five years, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index has fallen in 16 of the 19 weeks when the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 20 basis points or more, losing an average 1.6%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Last week fit that pattern. Indonesian shares were on track for a sixth session of declines as speculation mounted that the government will centralize commodity exports to control capital flows and shore up a plunging currency. Meanwhile, benchmarks in mainland China, Hong Kong and Australia rose. Chipmakers Samsung Electronics Co., SK Hynix Inc. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. were among the biggest drags on the regional gauge.  In Japan, the broader benchmark Topix index rebounded, led by banks after stronger-than-expected GDP data fueled speculation the central bank could raise interest rates again.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.3%, while the Aussie is the underperformer after RBA minutes.

In rates, Treasuries are weaker with 10-year yields up two basis points following similar price action in bunds while gilts outperform after lower-than-forecast UK April jobs figures.  US 10-year yield near 4.61% (vs session high 4.62%) underperforms UK counterpart by almost 5bp; US 30-year near 5.15% is also about 1bp off day’s high. US yields are 2bp-3bp cheaper across a slightly flatter curve; Fed-OIS contracts price in around 16 basis points of tightening by year-end and fully price in a hike by the March policy meeting. UK bonds are outperforming in Europe after soft labour market data. Ten-year gilt yields are down four basis points and bets on Bank of England rate hikes have been pulled back. G dollar issuance slate includes five deals already; Monday saw Merck’s $6 billion bond sale lead eight borrowers pricing a combined $12.2 billion of new debt. Kennametal, Mobility Global and Xylem are candidates for Tuesday after holding market exercises Monday. Treasury auctions this week include $16 billion 20-year bonds (Wednesday) and $19 billion 10-year TIPS reopening (Thursday). Focal points of US session include comments by Fed Governor Waller at 8am New York time and potential for another large corporate new-issue calendar. 

In commodities, oil prices have reversed overnight losses with Brent sitting a little above $110 after Trump said he’d called off a strike on Iran following an appeal by Persian Gulf allies

Economic data slate includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am) and April pending home sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Waller (8am) and Paulson (7pm).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.8%
• DAX +1.3%
• CAC 40 +0.9%
• 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.61%
• VIX +0.3 points at 18.15
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.3% at 1203.27
• euro -0.3% at $1.1616
• WTI crude -1.1% at $107.5/barrel

Top Overnight News

• President Trump said he would hold off on a planned U.S. attack on Iran at the request of Gulf leaders to make room for negotiations with Tehran over a prospective deal to end the war. The White House didn’t provide additional details about the planned attack. Several Gulf officials from some of the countries Trump mentioned said they were not aware of the imminent plan to attack Iran he described. WSJ
• Trump said 'hopefully, maybe forever' regarding the decision to delay the Iran attack, while he added that they will probably be satisfied if they can make a deal where Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon. Trump also stated that countries requested to put off the attack on Iran briefly and asked if an attack on Iran could be delayed 2-3 days: Truth Social
• US officials told the NYT that Iran has taken advantage of the ceasefire to re-expose dozens of bombed ballistic missile sites, move mobile missile launchers, and adjust its tactics in anticipation of a possible resumption of attacks, according to Amichai Stein.
• Vladimir Putin arrives in Beijing for talks with Xi Jinping as the Iran war offers Russia an opportunity to deepen energy links with China. Putin and Xi are due to meet tomorrow. BBG
• Soaring borrowing costs could trigger a “correction” in the stock market, highlighting a growing disconnect between exuberant equities and bonds battered by worries over high inflation. FT
• Financial market turbulence could force the Bank of Japan to go slow on the unwinding of its massive debt holdings, giving anxious bond investors some relief as surging yields lay bare worsening fiscal strains and inflation pressures. RTRS
• Japan’s economy grew much faster than expected at the start of the year, supporting the case for further Bank of Japan interest-rate hikes, though the outlook remains highly uncertain due to the Middle East conflict. Japan's economy grew 2.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, exceeding economists' forecast for a 1.7% increase. BBG
• Ukraine’s military has wrestled Russia’s much-larger army almost to a halt in recent months, having gained a tactical and technological edge. WSJ
• The SEC is set to roll out a plan for trading tokenized versions of stocks on crypto platforms, people familiar said. The framework has raised concerns about market fragmentation and investor protection. BBG
• Meta is reassigning 7,000 workers to new AI-related roles as part of a broader restructuring that includes planned staff cuts later this week. The company is also pursuing a $200 billion data center in rural Louisiana. BBG
• Google and Blackstone will form an AI cloud JV, backed by an initial $5 billion equity commitment from the PE firm. BBG
• US President Trump announced that the number of drugs available on TrumpRx is to be increased by nearly 7 times and that over 600 generics are to be added to TrumpRx.

Iran Headlines

• US President Trump posted on Truth that he instructed Secretary of War Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Caine and the US military to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for Tuesday after Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar requested him to do so, as serious talks are now taking place. Trump added that in their opinion, a deal will be made that is very acceptable to the US and the Middle East, while a deal will include no nuclear weapons for Iran, but he also instructed the US to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran on a moment's notice, in the event an acceptable deal is not reached.
• US President Trump said 'hopefully, maybe forever' regarding the decision to delay the Iran attack, while he added that they will probably be satisfied if they can make a deal where Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon. Trump also stated that countries requested to put off the attack on Iran briefly and asked if an attack on Iran could be delayed 2-3 days.
• US President Trump told The Post on Monday that he is “not open” to any concessions for Tehran after receiving the latest disappointing Iranian response on peace deal talks, while he said Iran knows “what’s going to be happening soon.”
• US State Department spokesperson said President Trump prefers the diplomatic path and has kept this door open from the start, according to Al Jazeera.
• Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and US forces exiting areas close to Iran are also included in the proposal.
• Iranian Parliament spokesperson said Tehran is working on a legal framework for managing the Strait of Hormuz, Al Araby reported.
• US officials told the NYT that Iran has taken advantage of the ceasefire to re-expose dozens of bombed ballistic missile sites, move mobile missile launchers, and adjust its tactics in anticipation of a possible resumption of attacks, according to Amichai Stein.
• Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters commander warned the US and its allies against strategic mistakes, while he said Iran's forces have become ready and will respond quickly and firmly to any new aggression from the enemies.
• Iranian Supreme Leader's military advisor Rezaei said the iron fist of Iran's armed forces and nation will force America to retreat and surrender.
• Israeli media said the main reason US President Trump postponed attacks on Iran is the Pentagon's warning that Iran is strengthening its air defences, while senior Pentagon officials warned that Iran is enhancing its warplane detection capabilities and bolstering its air defences, according to Al Mayadeen. It was also reported that air defences were activated in Isfahan, according to Mehr News.
• Unknown explosions last night in Bab al-Mandeb Strait halted vessel traffic for two hours, Far News reported. Sources cited note of "unusual silence" from global maritime and insurance authorities.
• Israeli drone strike was reported in Al-Qarara, Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip. It was separately reported that Hezbollah announced it attacked Israeli soldiers in the town of Rashaf, southern Lebanon with drones, while the Israeli army issued an evacuation warning for a building in the city of Tyre, southern Lebanon.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Japanese Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kiuchi sees strong momentum in this year's wage negotiations and improvements in job conditions. Further said that effect of government steps slightly to underpin moderate economic recovery and must be vigilant to the impacts on the economy from the Middle East conflict. Japan’s government plans to postpone its summer power-saving request, according to Kyodo. New Zealand's Finance Minister said the government is to overhaul public service and target savings of NZD 2.4bln over the next four years, and will aim to lower government jobs to 55,000 by mid-2029 from 65,000 in 2023.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kiuchi sees strong momentum in this year's wage negotiations and improvements in job conditions. Further said that effect of government steps slightly to underpin moderate economic recovery and must be vigilant to the impacts on the economy from the Middle East conflict.
• Japan’s government plans to postpone its summer power-saving request, according to Kyodo.
• New Zealand's Finance Minister said the government is to overhaul public service and target savings of NZD 2.4bln over the next four years, and will aim to lower government jobs to 55,000 by mid-2029 from 65,000 in 2023.
• Japanese GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q1) Q/Q 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.3%, Low. 0.1%, High. 0.7%).
• Japanese GDP Growth Annualised Prel (Q1) 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.3%, Low. 0.4%, High. 2.9%).
• Japanese Industrial Production MoM Final (Mar) M/M -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. -2.0%).
• Japanese Industrial Production YoY Final (Mar) Y/Y 2.4% (Prev. 0.4%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) start Tuesday’s trade on the front foot, seemingly benefiting from Trump’s de-escalatory post. Trump announced that the US military is to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for Tuesday after Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar requested him to do so, as serious talks are now taking place. However, he stated that they will be prepared to strike on a moment’s notice. The DAX 40 (+1.5%) is the clear outperformer, while the FTSE MIB (+0.2%) lags. European sectors highlight the positive bias. Media tops the sector pile, seemingly benefiting from continued upside in Publicis. Financial Services and Industrial Goods & Services round out the top 3 sectors. At the bottom of the pile lies Basic Resources (as precious metals pare Monday’s gains) and Chemicals. US equity futures print modest declines, ES -0.5%. Despite today's modest fixed bid, yields remain elevated and continue to weigh on the tech-heavy NQ (-0.8%). Despite the relative underperformance vs Europe, analysts see this as short-term due to Europe’s lack of IT sector, which has held the region back compared to South Korea and the US

Top European News

• UK Unemployment Rate (Mar) 5% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 4.9%, Low. 4.7%, High. 5.1%). ONS: "Latest figures suggest the labour market remains soft, with vacancies at their lowest level in five years and unemployment higher than a year ago. The number of payroll employees continued to fall in the three months to March, while regular wage growth slowed further."
• UK Employment Change (Mar) 148K vs. Exp. 107K (Prev. 25K, Low. 40K, High. 240K).
• UK Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Mar) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.6%, Low. 3.4%, High. 3.7%).

FX

• USD benefits from underperformance in peers, despite crude benchmarks being lower and the yield environment being more constructive. DXY is higher by three-tenths after bouncing off its 50DMA at 99.00. The session ahead is light, and sees remarks from Fed doves Waller and Paulson, alongside ADP weekly payrolls.
• GBP is a little lower against the Buck and Euro as technical-driven outperformance on Monday is reversed. Focus recently has been on politics (Manchester Mayor Burnham said that changing the Fiscal rules was not an option), and on a downbeat UK jobs report. Cable currently resides at the bottom end of a 1.3387 to 1.3437 range.
• USD/JPY topped Monday’s high (159.08), bringing intervention fears back in focus. USD/JPY has been edging higher throughout the last ten sessions amid reports of a supplementary budget and oil remaining high, with Japan a net importer.
• AUD is the G10 laggard, seemingly looking to price in the weak Chinese data on Monday as Monday’s risk-induced rally pares. Alongside the fading of the risk environment, RBA minutes overnight indicated a wait-and-see approach among members that voted for a hike, reinforcing market pricing of just c. 5bps of tightening for June 16th’s meeting. AUD/USD resumes its slide from 0.7200 on Friday, looks now to 0.7100, around 10-15 pips below.

Fixed Income

• USTs are firmer by around 6 ticks and currently trade at the mid-point of a 109-03 to 109-11+ range. Action ultimately dictated by Trump’s decision to delay strikes on Iran, after several Gulf countries suggested that serious talks were taking place. Nonetheless, risks remain, as Trump suggested that the US is prepared to launch a full-scale assault on Iran at a moment’s notice if an acceptable deal is not reached. Geopolitics aside, focus will be on the weekly ADP Employment Change metrics and Pending Home Sales; Fed speak via Waller is also due.
• From a yield perspective, US yields have eased a touch from the prior day’s peaks; the 10yr now holds around 4.60% (vs Monday’s peak at 4.63%). Nonetheless, the yield still resides beyond the key 4.50% mark, where some analysts have speculated a decisive breach above this point could see the yield begin to spiral.
• Gilts are outperforming vs peers, and are currently firmer by c. 80 ticks, trading with an 86.14 to 86.40 range. A trifecta of factors driving the action today: a) lower energy prices, b) Manchester Mayor Burnham (touted to challenge for PM) saying that changing fiscal rules would not be an option and c) a downbeat UK jobs report.
• Bunds are firmer by around 15 ticks, and hold within a 124.18 to 124.41 range. EU-specific newsflow has been light this morning, with the German benchmark ultimately moving alongside peers. Focus later will be on some ECB speak, but perhaps more pertinently, attention will be on the EU’s meeting related to US tariffs. The main sticking point is Trump. Officials are working on developing clauses to protect the EU, through “Trump Proofing”: a) expires once Trump’s presidential term ends, b) deal suspends if Greenland is threatened, c) allows the EU to restore tariffs if there are significant domestic market disruptions. Should officials reach an agreement, documents will be sent for a full vote in the European Parliament by June.
• Citi strategists says 5.5% may be the next key level for 30yr US Treasury yields after they rose to the highest since 2007.
• Germany sells EUR 3.844bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.50% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.32x (prev. 1.04x), average yield 2.85% (prev. 2.74%), retention 23.12% (prev. 20.9%).

Commodities

• The main update was US President Trump delaying the planned Iran attack after requests from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, as serious talks are taking place. However, they remain ready to strike if an acceptable deal is not reached. Sources continue to outline that some form of military action remains likely, while explosions have been heard in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, with transit halted overnight. See the 08:29BST update for more.
• WTI and Brent futures are softer intraday amid the pullback seen after US President Trump called off an attack on Iran that was planned for Tuesday following the request by Gulf nations. WTI Jul resides in a USD 102.12-104/bbl range, and Brent Jul in a USD 109.01-110.77/bbl range – both off worst levels. Dutch TTF trimmed earlier downside and trades firmer by ~1% at the time of writing, north of EUR 50/MWh. Analysts at ING, on US-Iran, said “One might think the oil market would become increasingly numb to these headlines. However, the scale of supply disruptions is significant and growing more concerning each day that oil flows remain halted.”
• In terms of metals, spot gold and silver post losses as the DXY remains underpinned by inflation concerns emanating from elevated oil prices. Spot gold trades closer to the bottom of a USD 4,531-4,589.58/oz range after briefly topping yesterday’s USD 4,584.37/oz peak. Spot silver resides in a USD 75.72-78.89/bbl. Base metals are on a softer footing amid the inflationary concerns from elevated energy prices. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13,485.98- 13,646.68/t range at the time of writing.
• Australian PM Albanese said Australia secured over 600k barrels of jet fuel and that three cargoes of jet fuel from China are expected to arrive from early June.
• Angola reportedly to cut July crude exports to 889k bpd.
• The EU is set to unveil an action plan to bolster fertiliser supplies and mitigate food price inflation, the FT reported citing draft proposals.

Central Banks

• RBA Minutes from the May meeting stated the board judged financial conditions would be somewhat restrictive after the May hike and that a hike would provide space to see how the Gulf conflict develops, as well as the response of households and businesses. Board considered whether to hike by 25bps or to keep rates at 4.1%, while it was stated that for future decisions, the board agreed monetary policy could not alter the near-term trajectory of inflation, and also agreed Australian economic growth is likely to be below potential for some time. Furthermore, the board will do what is considered necessary to meet inflation and employment mandates, while the majority emphasised that core inflation was projected above target for an extended period.
• RBA Assistant Governor Hunter said risk of inflation expectations drifting higher is elevated, and the Middle East conflict is a clear external shock, adding that the recent rise in oil prices is particularly challenging to navigate.

US Event Calendar

• 8:00 am: United States Fed’s Waller in Moderated Discussion
• 7:00 pm: United States Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Economic Outlook

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

My mini world tour continues, and it's another rare ocean view. This time in Lisbon where I'm passing through for a conference. It really is a beautiful city. Well the parts that I've seen on my travels.  

As I watch the early morning waves crash gently into the harbor, markets have had a mixed 24 hours, with Trump’s post that he called off planned new strikes against Iran helping the S&P 500 (-0.07%) erase most of its intra-day decline towards the end of the session, while 10yr Treasury yields stabilised after touching their highest level in over a year at 4.63%. Brent crude also retreated from two-week highs but is still trading close to $110/bbl this morning and little changed from the end of last week. And the broader market mood is on the cautious side this morning, with US equity futures and most Asian markets losing ground.

We are now exactly six weeks into the combined truce and ceasefire, following 5.5 weeks of strikes and attacks. While my base case is that the absence of kinetic activity would not have persisted this long without US intent to secure a deal, the lack of an agreement—despite several false dawns— remains a source of nervousness.

In terms of the latest from the Middle East, the last major swing came late in yesterday’s US session as Trump claimed that he had called off an attack against Iran that has been scheduled for today after an appeal by leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. The news helped remove some of the risk premium that had built up over the course of yesterday, even though in the same post Trump also said that he ordered the US military to be ready for “a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached”. Later on, Trump said that he was asked to put off new strikes “for two or three days” as Gulf allies thought “they are getting very close to making a deal”, while he also stressed the aim of “no nuclear weapon going into the hands of Iran”.

Following Trump’s comments, Brent crude is trading -2.03% lower this morning at $109.84/bbl as I type. Shortly before Trump’s post it had traded as high as $112.72, the highest intra-day level in almost two weeks. Oil prices whipsawed earlier yesterday alongside conflicting headlines around the prospects for further strikes. First, came a positive reaction after Iran’s Tasnim news agency said the US had proposed a temporary waiver on oil sanctions. So that led Brent to fall below $107/bbl as investors latched onto signs of progress in the US-Iran discussions. But more negative headlines then began to come through before Trump’s post. For instance, Tasnim also reported a source who said that Tehran felt the US had “excessive demands and unrealistic positions”. And on the US side, Axios cited a senior US official who said the White House didn’t think Iran’s updated proposal was sufficient for a deal.

In Asia this morning, markets are on the softer side, with tech stocks not helping the mood. As I check my screens, the KOSPI (-4.12%) stands out as the largest underperformer, having fallen as much as -5.0% earlier in the session. Other moves are more more muted with the Nikkei (-0.42%) and the CSI (-0.49%) only slightly lower and with the Shanghai Composite flat. In contrast, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.93%) is defying the regional trend, alongside the Hang Seng (+0.39%). S&P 500 (-0.26%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.46%) futures are giving back some of the late recovery from last night.

The S&P 500 (-0.07%) ended the day with a marginal decline, with Trump’s post helping it recover from -0.75% down an hour before the close. After its sharp decline last Friday, the S&P still posted its worst two-day performance since March, albeit only down -1.31% in that period from Thursday’s record high. Tech stocks took a larger hit, with the Magnificent 7 (-0.64%) and the NASDAQ (-0.51%) seeing a more material pullback. But the broader mood was more positive, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 rising by +0.58%.

US Treasuries also saw a varied performance, with 2yr (-2.6bps to 4.05%) and 10yr yields (-0.6bps to 4.59%) erasing their intra-day increases, but 30yr yields (+0.7bps) inching up to a new post-2007 high of 5.12%. Aside from oil, a rise in yields had been supported by positive data yesterday, which suggested the US economy had continued its resilience into May. Indeed, the NY Fed’s services business activity hit a 16-month high of -5.8, whilst the NAHB’s housing market index was up to 37 (vs. 34 expected). 10yr Treasury yields are around +1.4bps higher again overnight trading at 4.60%.

Over in Europe however, markets put in a relatively stronger performance, with bonds and equities both rebounding. So 10yr bund yields (-1.9bps) came down to 3.15%, after closing at a post-2011 high on Friday, whilst OATs (-4.0bps) and BTPs (-4.2bps) fell back as well. On top of that, investors dialled back their expectations for ECB rate hikes, with 73bps priced by the December meeting, down -2.1bps on the previous day. And in turn, the prospect of fewer rate cuts helped to support equities as well, with the STOXX 600 (+0.54%) paring back its slump on Friday.

Here in the UK, gilts outperformed their European counterparts, which came as a spokeperson for Greater Manchester Andy Burnham ruled out changing the government’s fiscal rules if he gained power. Moreover, the spokesperson also ruled out exempting defence spending from the rules, which is something Burnham had previously floated. So that reassured investors who’d been worried that Burnham might lead to higher gilt issuance, particularly after his comments last year about being “in hock” to the bond markets. In turn, that led to a clear rally, with 10yr gilt yields (-7.4bps) closing at 5.10%, down from their post-2008 high on Friday. Moreover, other UK assets outperformed, with the FTSE 100 (+1.26%) advancing, whilst the pound strengthened +0.81% against the US Dollar. Nevertheless, incumbent PM Starmer continued to reject suggestions he’d stand down if Burnham won the by-election, reiterating to broadcasters that “I’m not going to walk away”.

Early morning data has showed that Japan's economy expanded at an annualised rate of 2.1% in the first quarter of 2026 (compared to the +1.7% anticipated), driven by enhanced consumption and robust exports, thereby bolstering the argument for additional interest rate hikes by the BOJ. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The report indicates that the economy gained momentum during the January-March period, prior to the full effects of the war in Iran becoming apparent.

Despite the bullish growth figures, the Japanese yen has weakened slightly against the dollar following the announcement. Overnight BoJ swaps remain relatively stable, indicating around a 77% probability that the central bank will increase rates in June. Yields on 10-year JGBs have risen by +4.5bps, trading at 2.76%, marking a fresh multi-decade high as we go to print.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include UK unemployment for March, Canada’s CPI for April, and US pending home sales for April. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Waller and Paulson, the ECB’s Villeroy, Lane and Makhlouf, and the BoE’s Breeden.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 07:58

Standard Chartered To Replace "Lower-Value Human Capital" With AI As Meta Layoff D-Day Nears

The white-collar job-loss apocalypse, accelerated by AI, is increasingly concentrated in repetitive, data-intensive, and digitally native roles, with tech firms announcing layoffs one after another.

While 'D-Day' for Meta layoffs is Wednesday morning, the London-headquartered international bank Standard Chartered announced on Tuesday plans to cut 15% of its corporate roles (or about 7800 jobs) by 2030 as part of a broader efficiency push amid the adoption of AI.

STAN also raised its profitability targets, aiming for a 15% return on tangible equity by 2028 and roughly 18% by 2030.

"Drive productivity improvements to raise income per employee by ~20 percent by 2028, aided by a reduction in corporate functions roles of >15 percent by 2030," STAN wrote in a press release.

STAN CEO Bill Winters stated in the release, "We are investing in the capabilities that will compound our competitive advantages and drive sustainable growth and higher quality returns over time, with clear targets in place."

To achieve this, Winters explained: "We are scaling practical uses of automation, advanced analytics and artificial intelligence to streamline processes, improve decision-making and enhance both client service and internal efficiency."

During the earnings call, Winters provided more color on these plans, insisting, "It's not cost-cutting, it's replacing low-value human capital with financial and investment capital." The substitution of workers in favor of machines "will accelerate as we go forward into AI."

Here is Goldman analyst Gaelle Jarrousse's first take on STAN's move to reduce headcount to improve higher income per employee and returns:

Let's start with STANDARD CHARTERED CMD where the key punch line is Bill Winters mentioning that 'I can tell you in 2030, if we're generating 18%, I'm not going to be doing high fives with the team. I don't think that that's the potential of this bank.

But I'm not allowed to say that because the slide says 18% by around 18% by 2030.' It highlights the level of conservatism baked in the targets esp in the 57% Cost Income ratio.

The >15% ROTE target for 2028 (assuming 5-7% top line growth vs consensus at 5% and high teens EPS growth vs consensus at 18%) won't lead to earnings upgrades given consensus is at 15%.

However the 18% ROTE target for 2030 gives enough sustained growth and validates the thesis of a lasting growth story. There are not many banks offering c.20% EPS growth until 2030 with a clear narrative (and there not many banks giving you access to the Asian wealth story) and the multiple of STAN does not reflect that – REMEMBER the chart of EPS growth vs PE of last Friday, STAN screened very well on that, ie more re-rating is needed given the growth offered and the right type of growth, ie wealth deserving a higher multiple. STAY LONG.

Beyond STAN, 'D-Day' for Meta layoffs is tomorrow morning, and the Facebook and Instagram owner is expected to slash 10% of its global headcount, or about 8,000 employees, in the initial round as it swaps headcount for GPUs.

Take a look at Bloomberg story count data for "ChatGPT" and "layoffs" ...

Layoffs.fyi, a website tracking tech job cuts worldwide, reported that 73,212 employees have lost their jobs so far this year. For all of 2024, the figure was 153,000.

Labor-market disruption for white-collar workers has arrived with the rise of AI adoption. Goldman laid out in 2023 just how many jobs AI will take. That number is absolutely alarming for white-collar America, where many are saddled with student and credit card debt.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 07:45

BBC's Former News Director Says Trans-Bias & 'Progressive Madness' Drove Her Out

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The BBC’s grip on impartiality continues to slip as one of its former top news executives publicly confirmed what critics have long argued: activist capture from within has turned the state broadcaster into a vehicle for narrow ideological agendas.

Fran Unsworth, director of BBC News from 2018 to 2022, has broken her silence, claiming she was effectively driven out by trans activists and the “progressive madness” dominating the corporation.

In a candid interview, she described an environment of bullying where editors avoided critical reporting on trans issues for fear of attacks from their own colleagues.

'For the news department to be following some airy fairy ideology instead of fact is pretty wild!'

Comedian Leo Kearse reacts to a former BBC news boss claiming she was bullied out of her role by 'gender ideologues'. pic.twitter.com/n6QNpZn1HM

— GB News (@GBNEWS) May 16, 2026

“Just dealing with the progressive editorial issues and the bullying around them all. It was incredibly difficult,” Unsworth said. She added that the atmosphere extended beyond trans topics, with staff no-platforming dissenting views and pushing “safe spaces” over open debate.

Unsworth’s remarks paint a picture of a newsroom where challenging the prevailing narrative on ‘culture war’ issues carried professional risks. Programme editors reportedly steered clear of stories that questioned aspects of the trans agenda, wary of backlash from activist-aligned staff.

This self-censorship contributed to what a leaked internal memo later described as “effective censorship” on the topic.

Ex-BBC news boss Fran Unsworth says she was driven out of her job by 'progressive madness' of trans activists https://t.co/Fk0cmm51N1

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) May 16, 2026

Her departure was hastened by the constant pressure. “I would actually say it drove me out,” she stated, highlighting how the bullying around “progressive editorial issues” made her position untenable.

This echoes earlier revelations about the BBC’s hiring practices. In 2024, the broadcaster made clear it would not hire candidates dismissive of diversity and inclusion policies, effectively screening out those skeptical of the dominant ideology.

Recruiters were instructed to reject anyone showing a lack of enthusiasm for these topics, ensuring ideological conformity from the outset.

Unsworth’s admission also lands amid ongoing scandals over the BBC’s handling of gender issues, including accusations of harming children through biased children’s programming.

In late 2025, over 650 families accused the BBC of harming children via a “constant drip-feed” of pro-trans material in shows and dramas. Parents detailed examples like Hey Duggee using “they/them” pronouns for a character aimed at five-year-olds, episodes of Doctors and Casualty promoting child transition narratives, and documentaries criticized for downplaying detransition regrets.

One parent group spokesman warned: “The constant stream of propaganda about gender and trans activism the BBC has transmitted has played a significant role in creating a dangerous culture for children.” They pointed to narratives linking gender questioning directly to suicide, which they said pressured families and ignored safeguarding concerns.

The BBC has defended its output by citing updates to style guides and efforts to reflect developments like court rulings on biological sex, but trust continues to erode.

Inside the capture of the BBC, by Rob Burley (@RobBurl)

In his 13 years as a senior BBC editor, Rob Burley saw the Corporation’s defining commitment to impartiality undermined by transgender ideology, a blind commitment to Diversity & Inclusion schemes, and a culture of… pic.twitter.com/DobvY77PpD

— UnHerd (@unherd) May 16, 2026

The BBC’s obsession with identity politics has also produced content disconnected from everyday reality. A 2025 DEI training video on “microaggressions” went viral for its over-the-top portrayals of white colleagues as bumbling racists, complete with awkward accents and forced celebrations. Critics noted that no one in the real world behaves this way, highlighting the corporation’s bubble of performative wokeness.

Such materials reinforce the sense that the BBC operates in an alternate universe, more focused on enforcing sensitivity hierarchies than delivering impartial news or entertainment.

Unsworth’s exit and the surrounding controversies arrive as the BBC faces broader challenges, including declining audiences, falling trust, and questions over its future under new leadership. Leaked documents and parental complaints have repeatedly shown how activist influence skewed coverage, sidelining biological reality and dissenting voices in favor of Stonewall-aligned perspectives.

The pattern is clear: a public broadcaster funded by taxpayers has allowed internal cliques to dictate editorial direction, from hiring litmus tests to children’s shows pushing contested ideologies. This not only undermines impartiality but risks real-world harm by shaping public discourse—and young minds—around contested claims rather than evidence and balance.

It all underscores a pattern of institutional bias that prioritizes activist demands over journalistic balance and public trust.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 07:20

Trump: Holding Off 'Planned' Attack On Iran At Request Of Gulf Allies, 'Deal Will Be Made' Summary

• Trump says holding off on 'planned' Tuesday attack upon request of Gulf states.
• US denies earlier Tasnim report of agreeing to lift oil sanctions during talks; Trump tells NYP 'not open' to Iran concessions.
• Trump calls for Iran's total military surrender in Monday morning Truth Social post.
• Oil rebounds on Tasnim reporting Iranian denial: Tehran "under no circumstances" will negotiate nuclear issue as part of an end to the war.
• A flurry of (the somewhat typically-timed) Monday opener headlines have pushed oil prices lower, erasing weekend gains, including Al Arabia reporting that Iran is ready to accept a long-term nuclear freeze, instead of full dismantling.
• Iran has submitted its latest proposal comprising 14-points through Pakistan, amid reports that the US has offered to lift sanctions on Iranian oil during the interim negotiating period.

//--> //--> US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Yes 26% · No 75%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Trump: Asked by Gulf States to Hold Off Attacking Iran

Here we go again: Trump says he's holding off a planned attack which was supposedly "scheduled" for Tuesday, at the request of Gulf leaders, including Qatar, KSA, and UAE. "A deal will be made," he says...

Oil drops on the headlines, amid the ongoing roulette...

Iranian President Somewhat Defensive

A message from Iran's president, perhaps aimed at those arguing that trying to engage the US has run its course. Words aimed at IRGC and domestic population, it appears...

"Dialogue does not mean surrender..." will "safeguard the interests and honor of Iran."

Trump 'Not Open' to Any Concessions for Tehran: NYP Interview

Another repetition of the weeks-long stale-mated reality: ...so Trump is 'not open' to any concessions, but Iran deal happening 'soon' - we are yet again told, as the Iranians themselves haven't appeared to budge on anything.

President Trump told The NY Post on Monday he is “not open” to any concessions for Tehran after receiving the latest disappointing Iranian response on peace deal talks. Highlights:

• And in an ominous foreshadowing, Trump said Iran knows “what’s going to be happening soon.”
• In the brief phone interview The Post, Trump seemingly shut the door to Iran’s Sunday offer for a diplomatic talks.
• Asked about his Friday remark that he’d be willing to accept a 20-year moratorium on Iranian uranium enrichment, Trump interjected: “I’m not open to anything right now.”
• The president declined to get into any detail. “I can’t really talk to you about it. Too many things are happening,” he said.
• “I can tell you they want to make a deal more than ever, because they know we’re—what’s going to be happening soon,” Trump said.
• Questioned about regional source claims that Iran is attempting to “wait out” Washington on both the nuclear issue and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said he “hadn’t heard that.”

US Denies Tasnim Report It Agreed to Lift Iran Oil Sanctions

And the denials keep rolling in. First via CNBC:

A U.S. official tells me the Iranian state media report that the U.S. has agreed to lift oil sanctions while talks are ongoing is false. https://t.co/gOcyBKDAxC

— Megan Cassella (@mmcassella) May 18, 2026

...as the US side does not seem very confidently in control of the situation - quite the opposite:

Senior U.S. official: "It's time for the Iranians to throw bit of candy out. We need some real, sturdy, and granular conversation [regarding the nuclear program]. If that's not gonna happen, we will have a conversation through bombs, which will be a shame" https://t.co/qTNrY1fgoN

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) May 18, 2026

Just like that, back to square zero once again we go... and back to headline roulette. 

US PLANS NEW RUSSIAN OIL WAIVER AS IRAN WAR CRUNCHES SUPPLIES

US DENIES REPORT IT AGREED TO LIFT IRAN OIL SANCTIONS: CNBC

Steady climb in oil continues on the denials...

Trump Monday Morning Truth Social 'Threat'

Like clockwork, the start of the week threat from Trump on TS... same as the old threats:

And bearish news via Axios:

Iran has given an updated proposal for a deal to end the war, but the White House believes it is not a meaningful improvement and is insufficient for a deal, a senior U.S. official and a source briefed on the issue told Axios.

Oil Quickly Rebounding on Iranian Denial

In a far too familiar pattern, just before US market open on Monday, a slew of optimistic Iran headlines saw oil erase weekend gains, which mostly came through Saudi Arabia's state-funded Al Arabiya, as well as Reuters... only to be followed by Iranian officials rejecting the substance of these reports, putting things firmly back at square one. 

Tasnim has newly cited Iranian government sources who seek to make clear that "Iran under no circumstances" will engage in new nuclear negotiations for an end to the war. Contradicting the earlier morning reports, it still sees negotiations to find peace in the war with the US as separate from the nuclear file. "Fundamental differences between the Iranian and American texts still remain", Tasnim reports, citing a source.

"Despite some changes in the new American text, fundamental differences stemming from the Americans' exaggeration and lack of realism remain," Tasnim writes, citing the Iranian source. According to more of the statements per state media:

• "Iran will not abandon its firm and principled positions on ending the war and realizing the rights of the Iranian people".
• "Iran's frozen assets must be returned to the Iranian people in a transparent and definitive manner, and paper promises are of no use".
• "Despite some promises, there is disagreement about the return of the frozen funds".
• "Iran's determination regarding the necessity of paying compensation by the Americans for the military aggression against Iran is very serious".
• "The Americans are far from Iran's demands regarding its amount and some other issues."
• "the Americans are still trying to tie the negotiations to end the war to the nuclear issue, which is against logic and Iran will not agree to it. The Americans must understand that Iran will in no way agree to an end to the war in return for nuclear commitments".
• "Iran has not and does not have any intention of building nuclear weapons, and this claim is just an excuse and deception by the Americans. This issue has also been emphasized in the new text".

Oil reacted as expected to this official 'denial' of the prior optimism - quickly rebounding, also as Trump is said to be "losing patience" with the progress of talks. A US source has told Al Jazeera Iran has "days not weeks" to show progress.

The optimism and then denials happened within a span of a couple hours...

And here is the walkback, as IRGC must have just gotten the memo:

DESPITE SOME CHANGES IN THE NEW AMERICAN TEXT, FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCES STEMMING FROM THE AMERICANS' EXAGGERATION AND LACK OF REALISM REMAIN https://t.co/3KT4OeLhCq

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 18, 2026 Tasnim: Another Iranian Ship Breaks Through US Blockade Line

Iranian state media is claiming that a Iranian oil tanker under US sanctions that was off the coast of India two weeks ago has now docked at Kharg Island, having broken through the US naval blockade. Tasnim reports that "the LPG tanker passed through the US blockade line undetected and entered Iranian waters." 

The Pentagon has been asserting an essentially airtight blockade on 'illicit' ships going to or from Iranian ports. CENTCOM has said it has turned around at least 75 vessels, while Iranian media has since the blockade's start touted several ships making it through.

Long-Term Nuclear Freeze on Table

Saudi state-owned Al Arabiya early Monday has issued a bombshell if true (but still very much not officially confirmed), reporting that Iran has agreed to a long-term nuclear freeze instead of a complete dismantling. The outlet also reports that Iran has withdrawn its demand for compensation, instead demanding economic concessions. However, this could be highly dubious, given over the past several days Tehran has not shown willingness to back down from this demand of compensation.

It also seems Russia's offer to take and temporarily hold Iran's enriched uranium is being taken seriously. Here are the alleged "leaks" of the working draft peace document:

• Working on a condition transfer of enriched uranium to Russia instead of the US.
• Seeking multiple international guarantees for any agreement.
• Wants Pakistan and Oman to have a 'role' in any 'clash' in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Seeking a political formation that allows Iran to save face.
• Separate the maritime route from nuclear issues.

Oil pushes lower on the additional headlines, following initial reports that the US would lift sanctions on Iranian oil during the negotiating period...

As a reminder from days ago: "US President Donald Trump said Friday that he would accept a 20-year suspension of the uranium enrichment at the heart of Iran’s rogue nuclear program if Tehran gave a “real” guarantee, in an apparent shift from his previous demand that Iran permanently halt its program and his pledge to ensure Iran can never attain nuclear weapons."

US Lifting Oil Sanctions During Negotiation Period: Tasnim

Tasnim news agency says Iran has submitted its latest proposal comprising 14 points through Pakistan. State sources say the focus by Iranian leadership is to end the war and build trust. This as Pakistan’s interior minister has extended his Tehran visit for a third day.

In this context a source close to the negotiating team reportedly told Tasnim that, unlike their previous texts, Washington agreed in the new text to lift Iran's oil sanctions during the negotiation period. This is a first big sign of progress since the White House reportedly sent five 'counter' conditions to Tehran, which only offered a partial sanctions reduction.

Per more from Tasnim: 

• Waiving sanctions means temporarily lifting sanctions.

• Iran insists that lifting all sanctions on Iran should be part of the US's commitments.

• However, the US has proposed suspending OFAC until a final understanding is reached.

The headline was enough to push oil down, erasing the gains over the weekend...

Another blurb via TASS, offering a little more in terms of likely conflicting interpretations and expectations:

According to the source, unlike in its previous proposals, the US has agreed in its new offer to suspend oil sanctions against Iran for the duration of the talks. The source noted that Tehran, for its part, insists on the lifting of all sanctions, while Washington is only ready to waive US Treasury sanctions until a final agreement is reached.

More Latest Developments

According to more of the latest headlines via Al Jazeera:

• Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson says talks between Iran and the US are continuing through Pakistan.
• He added that Iranian and Omani technical teams met in Oman to negotiate a mechanism for ensuring safe transit in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Kuwait and Qatar have condemned drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, which officials say originated from Iraqi airspace.
• The Israeli army says it struck more than 30 targets in southern Lebanon, which it claims were used by Hezbollah to attack Israeli forces.
• The Israeli navy has seized vessels that were part of the Gaza-bound Global Sumud Flotilla, arresting 100 activists on board.

And more developments via Newsquawk:

• US President Trump warned on Truth Social that the clock is ticking for Iran and that they better get moving fast, or there won’t be anything left for them, and that time is of the essence.
• US President Trump declined to give a specific deadline for negotiations with Iran and will hold a Situation Room meeting with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss possible options for military action, while he spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu about the situation in Iran, according to Axios. Trump also stated that he still thinks Iran wants a deal and he is waiting for an updated Iranian proposal, which he hopes will be better than the prior offer. Furthermore, Axios’s Ravid reported that Trump threatened that attacks would resume with greater intensity if the Iranian regime does not come up with a better proposal, while Channel 12’s Kraus posted that President Trump said in a phone call that he thinks the Iranians should be afraid of what’s going on right now.
• Pakistan shared revised Iranian proposal to end the war with the US on Sunday night, according to Pakistani sources. The course added that "we don't have much time", adding that both countries "keep changing their goalposts".
• Western sources say the new Iranian proposal includes a commitment of unclear value not to produce nuclear weapons but no mention of uranium or Hormuz, according to Journalist Segal.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said talks with the US continue through Pakistani mediation. The spokesperson added that they have made great efforts for safe movement and protection of the Strait of Hormuz and are in constant contact with Oman to develop a mechanism. On Uranium, Baghaei said Tehran does not need any party to recognize its right to uranium enrichment and will not discuss during negotiations with the US.
• Iranian Defence Ministry spokesman Brigadier General Reza Talaei-Nik warned of a regretful response to enemies and said that Iranian armed forces are fully prepared to confront any potential attack by the US and Israeli regime, according to IRNA.
• Iranian Major General Rezaei said Iran is serious about diplomacy and negotiations, but is more serious about dealing with the aggressor, while he added that the US must now prove its good intentions and that Iranian armed forces are on the trigger as diplomatic efforts continue.
• Iran said transit through the Strait of Hormuz would flow again once its conflict with the US and Israel is over, although the sides remain far from resolving their differences, according to Bloomberg. In relevant news, three cargo-empty, US-sanctioned tankers reportedly slipped through the US naval blockade in recent days, according to TankerTrackers.com.
• Israel said it carried out a Gaza strike targeting the de facto head of Hamas's armed wing, while Israel also conducted an airstrike on the towns of Froun, Kfar Hounah and Zawtar al-Sharqiya in southern Lebanon. Furthermore, an Israeli air strike targeted Baalbek, Lebanon and killed an Islamic Jihad commander and his daughter.
• UAE officials said a drone attack set off a fire near the UAE’s nuclear power station, while it was still investigating the source of the attack.
• Saudi Defence Ministry said it intercepted three drones launched from Iraq after entering the kingdom’s airspace.

* * *

While a Pakistani-mediated ceasefire managed to take effect on April 8, subsequent talks in Islamabad completely collapsed, but then President Trump later extended the truce indefinitely, likely to buy time and to figure out "what's next" - while seeking a complete blockade of Iranian oil exports, and of all vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports. Currently the sides are merely trying to get back to the table.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 07:00

NY MTA, LIRR Unions Reach 'Fair Deal' To End Strike After Commuter Chaos Grips NYC

New York's MTA reached a tentative labor deal with five Long Island Rail Road unions, ending the first LIRR strike in more than 30 years. Roughly 3,500 workers walked off the job Saturday, sparking commuter chaos for several hundred thousand people who heavily rely on the train service.

"Tonight, the @MTA reached a fair deal with the five LIRR unions that delivers raises for workers while protecting riders and taxpayers," Governor Kathy Hochul wrote on X late Monday.

The good news is that LIRR service will resume at noon today. However, for the 300,000 people who rely on the service to get to work this morning, the disruption still appears to be ongoing.

Tonight, the @MTA reached a fair deal with the five LIRR unions that delivers raises for workers while protecting riders and taxpayers.

I’m pleased to announce that phased LIRR service will resume beginning tomorrow at noon.

— Governor Kathy Hochul (@GovKathyHochul) May 19, 2026

LIRR confirmed that service will remain disrupted this morning because there is not enough time to get crews into position to run trains.

Limited Long Island Rail Road service will resume tomorrow with shuttle buses continuing to operate through the AM rush.

Customers should continue to work from home on Tuesday if possible. Check our website for details: https://t.co/QNV4sIPCsH pic.twitter.com/DYjK8UTDkY

— LIRR (@LIRR) May 19, 2026

The lefty union behind the commuter chaos is the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen, which stated on X overnight, "The coalition of five labor unions, including BLET, today ended their 3-day strike at Long Island Rail Road after coming to terms on a tentative contract."

The coalition of five labor unions, including BLET, today ended their 3-day strike at Long Island Rail Road after coming to terms on a tentative contract. The strike began just after midnight on Saturday, May 16. Read more: https://t.co/9C6qkMxEI8 pic.twitter.com/tGOqdfJ47A

— Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (@BLET) May 19, 2026

Related coverage:

• "Please Work Remote": NYC Braces For Commuter Chaos With Ongoing LIRR Strike

• Lefty Union Paralyzes Long Island Rail Road As Strike Sets Commuter Chaos Countdown For Monday

Bloomberg noted, "The unions were seeking a 5% boost, or close to it, while the MTA offered close to 4.5% along with ways to find savings to help pay for the higher raise."

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 06:55

International Energy Agency Is Wrong To Forecast Coal's Demise

Authored by Tom Harris via The Epoch Times,

Activists would have us believe that coal is a dying energy source. But, thankfully for American coal states such as West Virginia and the Canadian provinces of Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia—all of which use millions of tonnes of coal every year to generate electricity—that is not even remotely true.

However, the world is burning more coal now than ever, reaching a record 8.85 billion metric tonnes annual consumption by the end of 2025. Since 2020, annual coal consumption has increased by 1.40 billion tonnes.

Most of this has come from China, of course, which makes up about 55 percent of global coal consumption (the United States makes up about 5 percent of global consumption). Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a decline in demand over the next five years, The Kobeissi Letter more realistically predicts that demand will continue to rise, and points out that “past forecasts of peak coal demand have repeatedly proven wrong.”

A graph on the IEA’s website that illustrates coal consumption (in metric tonnes, Mt) from 2000 to 2022, shows estimates for 2024 to 2026 that seem improbable.

Regardless, the IEA writes that increased demand for renewables is the primary cause for the estimated decline in coal consumption, and that “Global coal demand is expected to effectively plateau over the coming years, showing a very gradual decline through to 2030.” However, they also write that coal use is expected to increase in India by about 3 percent per year and in Southeast Asia by about 4 percent per year up to 2030.

In reality, we can’t expect China to slow its coal production anytime soon. Currently consuming about 3 billion tonnes annually, they will clearly dominate global trends in coal consumption in the years to come. Although the IEA also expects a slow decline in coal consumption in China over the next five years, with the gradual but marked decline of climate change alarmism worldwide and China’s ambition to expand its economy, this prediction doesn’t seem to hold much credibility either.

As The Kobeissi Letter states, coal remains in high demand, and the pipe dream of climate activists to kill coal doesn’t account for the security and convenience that this energy supply affords us. Like nuclear electricity—another power source that is vital to providing electricity for large portions of the world—the fuel for coal-fired power generation can be stored right on a power plant’s site for long periods of time, providing stable energy for society. We especially need coal during deep freezes because natural gas can falter in extreme cold due to “just-in-time” pipeline delivery. Gas flows can slow or freeze entirely, as seen in winter storms Uri (2021) and Elliott (2022), leaving grids vulnerable. And, not surprisingly, in each of these storms, wind and solar delivered very little, and sometimes no power at all, causing millions to lose electricity and causing hundreds of deaths from the cold.

CO2 Coalition energy expert Dick Storm says that “coal is indispensable” and that it is “the lowest cost proven source of primary energy for electricity generation ever in history.” The Canadian province of Ontario, where I live, proved this case well. In 2002, coal provided about 25 percent of the province’s power, and we enjoyed very low electricity rates. But in 2005, then-Premier Dalton McGuinty held a news conference and, pointing to the pile of coal beside him, said it was “old technology” and that, to save the climate and protect the air, Ontario would phase out all coal-fired electricity generation. This made no sense in light of the facts:

1. Coal is not a technology. It is a resource, and the degree to which it causes pollution when burned depends on the technology used to burn it. Reducing carbon dioxide emissions from a coal plant is unquestionably costly, difficult, and of course, unnecessary. Reducing real pollution is often well worth the price and far easier to accomplish with a coal station by using the latest pollution control technology.

2. Seen in a global context, Ontario’s emissions are trivial—one-quarter of Canada’s 1.6 percent of global emissions. So, no matter what one believes about the causes of climate change, McGuinty’s announcement and the province’s painful reduction to 0 percent coal-fired power were merely virtue signalling and showmanship. It had no impact on climate whatsoever.

It did, however, have a huge impact on consumer electricity rates, which, depending on the year, doubled or even tripled as coal was replaced with more expensive power, including a massive expansion of industrial wind turbines. Of course, soaring power rates are politically problematic, so the government decided to hide the increase in the tax base, and today’s rates are merely 50 percent higher than those in 2002. But we all eventually pay for this massive increase, just not directly on our power bill.

Renewable energy has only been able to survive thus far because it is heavily subsidized by tax dollars. These subsidies have, unfortunately, caused coal-fired power stations to be less profitable to operate, by comparison, compounded by the fact that regulations have crippled the industry. It is important to increase our expansion of coal plants, Storm tells us. 800,000 megawatts of new power generation, the equivalent of 80 New York cities, will be needed in the United States in the next 25 years to keep up with demand. This is simply not possible with renewable energy, and although nuclear and other conventional power will be significant players in this, coal will remain a steady, reliable power source to provide us with these vast amounts of power.

Rather than phase out coal, Saskatchewan should build more plants. Since Alberta phased out this important energy source, it will soon come knocking again begging for more power from Saskatchewan’s black gold.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 06:30

"Answering The Call": Ford Motor Eyes WWII-Style Production Push For Trump's War Economy

One month after we reported that the Trump administration was in talks with U.S. manufacturers about converting idle civilian industrial capacity into weapons production, as conflicts across Eurasia deplete critical weapons stockpiles, Ford Motor signaled Monday morning that it is prepared to support a Western defense-industrial mobilization.

Much like during World War II, Ford said it is exploring how its commercial vehicles and related technologies could help governments in North America and Europe quickly build up their defense in the most cost-effective way. 

"Traditional, purpose-built military hardware takes years to develop and costs billions. By using commercial, off-the-shelf solutions from Ford, governments can access world-class technology at a fraction of the time and cost," Ford wrote in a press release.

Ford said its trucks, such as the F-Series and Ranger, along with technologies like Pro Power Onboard, could support military mobility, transport, and field operations.

"We have always partnered with government customers in times of peace, crisis, and conflict to serve society. During World War II, Ford's assembly lines produced hundreds of thousands of aircraft, trucks, and engines for the Allied effort," Ford pointed out.

Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that not only Ford, but also GM, Aerospace, and Oshkosh were in talks with the Trump administration to convert civilian industrial capacity into weapons production.

The effort to boost the war economy is part of what Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has described as putting the defense industrial base on a "wartime footing."

Evidence of converting underused civilian industrial capacity has already been seen with the German automaker Volkswagen, which will soon transform its Lower Saxony factory from producing T-Roc Cabriolets to manufacturing parts for the Iron Dome missile interceptor system.

One major vulnerability is labor disruption. Far-left unions could weaponize strikes and other work stoppages to slow or derail America's defense-industrial buildup at a moment when conflicts across Eurasia, from Ukraine to Iran, are already drawing down critical weapons stockpiles.

We suspect other major U.S. manufacturers will soon issue statements similar to Ford's amid Trump's push for a booming war economy.

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 05:45

"The Political Shift Is Inevitable": AfD Leader Weidel Heralds New Polling High For Party

Via Remix News,

The latest Insa Sunday poll has given the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party a new record high for voter support. At 29 percent, up 1 point, the AfD has an even greater lead over the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), which fell 1 point to 22 percent.

A YouGov poll just last week showed AfD at 28 percent and the CDU/CSU at 22 percent.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel took to X to celebrate the news, pointing out that Germany’s current ruling coalition stands now at just 34 percent.

“The political shift is inevitable—we will put the interests of our country and our citizens back at the forefront!” she wrote.

Inzwischen würden 29% der Bürger AfD wählen, während die Regierungsparteien zusammen auf nur noch 34% kommen. Die politische Wende ist unausweichlich - wir werden die Interessen unseres Landes und unserer Bürger wieder in den Vordergrund stellen! pic.twitter.com/cX1IKHeGbW

— Alice Weidel (@Alice_Weidel) May 16, 2026

This continues the downward trend for the CDU/CSU alliance, currently governing Germany in coalition with the SPD. Back in February 2025, the CDU/CSU and SPD together received almost 45 percent of the second-round votes. In mid-April, points out Junge Freiheit, they were still polling at 25 percent according to Insa, while the AfD reached 26 percent. Just a month earlier, the CDU and CSU were slightly ahead of the AfD.

Meanwhile, the Social Democrats (SPD) continue to weaken, dropping one point to 12 percent, behind the Greens, who gained 1.5 points to reach 14 percent. The Left Party now stands at 10 percent, down 1 point, and the FDP and BSW, at 3 percent each, would not even enter parliament. 

Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) has been under increasing pressure due to the ongoing economic stagnation, layoffs, bankruptcies, and energy crisis. There have even been calls for new elections, particularly from its coalition partner, the SPD.

As Remix News reported earlier this month, the SPD is upset over proposed cuts to social programs, backed by the CDU, to address Germany’s increasing budget deficit.

The SPD, however, is not Merz’s only problem, as a significant right-leaning faction of the CDU is increasingly unhappy with his performance and what they feel is the CDU’s inability to pass laws and reforms with the far-left SPD as its partner.

CDU MP Christian von Stetten, for example, reportedly told a business event recently that the coalition would “definitely not” last the full four years of its term.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 05:00

UBS Reactivates Supply-Chain Stress Watch After Detecting Alarmingly Rapid Deterioration

One week after Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc warned CNBC of a "new wake-up call" for global trade amid the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and a deepening energy crisis that could intensify further in June, UBS analysts are out with a new note telling clients they have "reactivated" their Global Supply Chain Stress Index in response to increasingly alarming signals emerging across global logistics networks.

"Supply chain stress is rising at its fastest pace since the early pandemic," UBS analyst Pierre Lafourcade wrote in a note on Sunday.

Lafourcade explained that global supply chain stress is emerging quickly, with the index rising by 1.2 standard deviations in March and April, the second-largest two-month jump since July 2020.

"We are now reactivating it to assess disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict," he said, noting that the last time the index was published was in February 2023, or the period in which Covid snarled supply chains.

The Global Supply Chain Stress Index is surging again.

PMI delivery times are increasing again.

The full note can be read by Professional subscribers here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Related:

• Maersk CEO Warns Iran War Is A "New Wake-Up Call" For Global Trade

• Trump's Project Freedom Likely Triggered By Oil Market's One-Month Countdown To Chaos

JPMorgan analysts warned that the world is spiraling toward a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of crude oil if the maritime chokepoint remains blocked for another four weeks.

With that said, June is only a few weeks away, and early indications suggest that continued disruption of the maritime chokepoint could begin to materially affect global trade next month, with risks extending well beyond that if the chokepoint remains shuttered.

Separately, with Brent back in triple-digit territory, UBS analyst Dimitrios Laloudakis pointed to surging yields worldwide:

US yields join G10 peers in estimating rate hikes for 2026. 2y yields comfortably above moving averages. Cross asset implications should drag equities lower, vol higher, and duration to selloff.

It appears something has to give if Hormuz remains choked by the end of the month.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 04:15

Pakistan Deploys Thousands Of Troops, Jet Fighter Squadron To Saudi Arabia

Via The Cradle

Pakistan has deployed 8,000 troops, a ​squadron of fighter jets, and an air defense system to Saudi Arabia under a mutual defense pact, Reuters reported on Monday, citing security and government officials.

The officials described the Pakistani deployment as a "substantial, combat-capable force intended to support Saudi Arabia's military if the kingdom comes under further attack," Reuters wrote.

Illustrative via Pakistan air force

Pakistan's military cooperation with ‌the Saudi kingdom is expanding amid threats by the US and Israel to renew military operations against Iran, which ceased following the announcement of a ceasefire on April 8.

During the war, Iran carried out attacks against US military bases and energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia in response to the kingdom's support for the US and Israeli aggression.

Saudi Arabia responded by launching numerous unpublicized strikes on Iran. However, Riyadh has sought in recent weeks to de-escalate the conflict, while Islamabad has served as a mediator in talks between Washington and Tehran.

The defense agreement signed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan reportedly requires both Islamic countries ⁠to come to each other's defense in the event of an attack.

Reuters noted that Saudi Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has previously suggested the agreement offers Saudi Arabia protection ​under Pakistan's nuclear umbrella.

According to the sources speaking with the news agency, Pakistan has deployed a full squadron of around 16 warplanes, including JF-17 fighters made jointly with China, two squadrons of drones, and around 8,000 troops. Pakistan has pledged to send additional troops if needed, as well as a Chinese HQ-9 air defense system.

Both countries benefit from the alliance, as Pakistan has a large military due to its decades-long conflict with India, while Saudi Arabia provides badly needed foreign currency to Pakistan's heavily indebted government.

Talks are reportedly underway to bring both Turkiye and Qatar into the Saudi–Pakistani alliance. 

Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif revealed during an interview with Hum News on 11 May that a deal to bring Turkiye and Qatar into the mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia is being “finalized.”

“If Qatar and Turkiye also join the existing agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, it would create significant cooperation in both the economic and defense spheres in our region and reduce external dependence,” Asif told Pakistan-based Hum News, adding that their inclusion would be “a welcome development.”

Last week, the Financial Times (FT) reported that Saudi Arabia has “floated” the possibility of reaching a “non-aggression pact” between Iran and neighboring states modeled on the 1975 Helsinki Accords, which eased tensions during the Cold War in Europe.

The Ambassador of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to Pakistan, H.E. Nawaf bin Saeed Ahmad Al-Malkiy, called on Deputy Prime Minister / Foreign Minister Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar @MIshaqDar50 today.

Discussions focused on the fraternal Pakistan–Saudi Arabia relations. DPM/FM… pic.twitter.com/oaQ4HraDev

— Ministry of Foreign Affairs - Pakistan (@ForeignOfficePk) May 18, 2026

The Saudi-proposed pact for the day after the US-Israeli war on Iran ends reportedly has support from several European capitals, which view it as “the best way to avoid future conflict” and have urged Arab states to support it.

The British daily cites an unnamed Arab diplomat who says that such a pact would be welcomed “by most Arab and Muslim states, as well as by Iran,” although concerns remain about Israel's continued threats to reignite the war regardless of any deal.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 03:30

Belarus Rattles Europe With Drills Involving Russian Tactical Nukes

The Belarusian Defense Ministry announced Monday that its specialized military units have kicked off surprise combat drills specifically focused on the deployment and use of tactical nuclear weapons, which is a sign of yet more atomic saber-rattling on Europe's eastern flank.

According to the official statement blasted out across Telegram on Monday: "Today, in the interests of increasing the readiness of the armed forces for the use of modern weapons, including special ammunition, training of military units for the combat use of nuclear weapons and nuclear support has begun under the leadership of the chief of the General Staff of the armed forces," the ministry wrote.

Prior drills, illustrative: Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP

The Kremlin-aligned state is moving hardware and testing infrastructural elements required to field atomic ordnance.

According to the ministry, the drills are designed to verify the readiness of weapons and military equipment to execute combat operations out of non-traditional, surprise launch areas.

Dual-capable delivery platforms have reportedly been been moved into position: "Military units of the missile forces and aviation are involved in the event. During the training, in cooperation with the Russian side, it is planned to practice delivering nuclear weapons and preparing them for use," the ministry said.

But interestingly, Belarus's Ministry of Defense also stressed that this event "is not directed against third countries and poses no threat to security in the region."

Belarusian drills are typically deeply integrated to 'Union State' operations. Under a formal mutual defense pact, Moscow has long pledged that any attack threatening the very existence of Belarus could be met with a Russian nuclear response.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has at the same time long welcomed and touted that ally President Putin authorized the stationing of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, which borders Poland.

This has long been a major concern of NATO, and the nukes were reportedly transferred there - under the oversight of Russian military officers - in the context of the escalating Ukraine war and threats and counter-threats hurled between Moscow and the West.

Ukraine and Europe are predictably quite angry and nervous over the development, naturally. A Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement said, "By turning Belarus into its ‌nuclear staging ground near NATO borders, the Kremlin is de facto legitimizing the proliferation of nuclear weapons worldwide ⁠and setting a dangerous ⁠precedent for other authoritarian regimes."

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 02:45

"Closely Monitoring The Situation": Germany Fears Next Migration Wave After Spanish PM Welcomes Hundreds Of thousands Of Illegals

Via Remix News,

With Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez legalizing what could amount to as many as 1.6 million migrants, other EU member states are getting worried, and not just neighboring France.

While the Socialist prime minister’s announcement originally aimed to naturalize some 500,000 migrants by handing them residency permits and work permits, German authorities estimate that there could be as many as 850,000 applicants in Spain, writes Bild. Leaked internal Spanish police documents have already put this estimated number even higher, at 1.6 million.

Since the announcement in mid-April, hordes of undocumented migrants have been overwhelming local offices across the country, with nearly 130,000 applications in the first week alone. Remix News posted videos of these crowds.

🇪🇸🔴The line of migrants seeking legalization wraps around an entire massive building in Spain. pic.twitter.com/lNxZqzslg0

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) April 23, 2026

French conservatives sounded the alarm early on, with National Rally leader Jordan Bardella slamming the ability for residence permits to freely move around the EU.

“I believe that free movement within the Schengen Area should be reserved exclusively for nationals of European countries. Obtaining a residence permit in Spain, for example, should not allow free movement throughout all European Union countries,” he wrote.

Now, Germany’s Foreign Office in Berlin has stated: “We are closely monitoring the situation and are in contact with Spain.”

A spokesperson for the Interior Ministry also sought to clarify that a Schengen residence permit does not, in principle, authorize employment in Germany. Having one allows you to enter Germany and stay for a maximum of three months at a time.

The domestic policy spokesman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, Alexander Throm (CDU), also expressed his concerns, according to Bild: “Such mass legalization sends a devastating signal to the world and creates an incalculable pull effect.”

Police union representative Manuel Ostermann has also warned of potential consequences given that many entering Europe are attracted to German jobs and benefits.

“If the Spanish minority government fails, and a future government reduces payments or terminates residency permits, many of the migrants will continue their journey to Germany and remain here. Whether permitted or not,” he warned.

Of course, jobs in Germany are already becoming scarce, including over 120,000 industrial jobs being shed last year, and after years of mass immigration, the German economy continues to go from weakness ot weakness.

Germany has already had problems with secondary migration from Greece for years. Last April, the country’s Federal Administrative Court authorized migrant deportations to Greece for the first time in years.

Ostermann is now warning: “The migration crisis is not over. Germany must therefore consistently eliminate the remaining pull factors,” he says, adding that Germany should abolish “excessive financial incentives” and replace them with the principle of “bread and butter.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 02:00

Escobar On Xi's "Constructive Strategic Stability"

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

If all of us are magnanimous enough, we might infer that Xi and Trump agreed on a three-year stability framework.

The headline on the front page of China Daily this past Thursday was a thunder and lightning “Red-carpet welcome for Trump in Beijing”.

Well, complete with electric jumpin’ children waving flowers and a visit to the Temple of Heaven, built in 1420, symbolizing the connection between heaven and humanity.

Youth meet tradition. The generation that will lead fully modernized China meets deep History. A dazed and confused POTUS could barely absorb a running masterclass in civilization.

Xi Dada was proverbially sharp: “We should be partners, not rivals.” The Exceptionals were stunned. All that after the non-stop litany of trade wars, tech sanctions, non-stop Taiwan hysteria, military encirclement, geoconomic confrontation, anti-China rhetoric.

Cool down. Be cool.

Oh, the twists and turns of the most important bilateral relation on the planet. Even as both economies are quite intertwined, bilateral trade in goods reached 4.01 trillion yuan ($590 million) in 2025. In global terms, that’s not exactly groundbreaking: only 8.8% of China’s total foreign trade.

At the state banquet, Xi’s sharp rhetorical dagger performed the feat of uniting MAGA and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation:

“The people of China and the United States are both great peoples, achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and making America great again, can go hand in hand.”

The barbarians were puzzled. Again.

Then Xi explained where we are, concisely. It took only one sentence:

“The transformation not seen in a century is accelerating across the globe, and the international situation is fluid and turbulent.”

Compare it to when he first referred to the “transformation”, in public, for a global audience: right after the meeting with Putin in the Kremlin in the Spring of 2023.

And then Xi immediately asked: “Can China and the United States overcome the Thucydides Trap and create a new paradigm of major-country relations?”

As much as the Thucydides Trap is yet another feeble US ThinkTank-land concoction – the best analysts of Thucydides are Greeks and Italians, not the Beltway gang – Xi’s metaphor was actually stressing that China, now, is the leader of the new emerging order.

And it got here without firing a shot.

That “constructive strategic stability”

Xi then deployed his new vision for US-China relations – at least for the next 3 years – via a quite startling slogan: “constructive strategic stability” (italics mine).

Yet that presents three serious problems.

• The Empire of Chaos is not constructive: it’s destructive.

• It’s not strategic: at best it’s crudely tactical, tactics changing all the time.

• And it’s not about stability: it’s about instilling and deploying chaos, alongside lies, plunder and, as we see in Venezuela and especially Iran, piracy.

So Xi, rationally, cannot possibly expect “cooperation” from the Empire as “the mainstay” of the relationship, much less “healthy stability with competition within proper limits.”

If all of us are magnanimous enough, we might infer that Xi and Trump agreed on a three-year stability framework which should be interpreted as a structural reset – featuring cooperation first, then managed competition, and predictable peace as the end result.

Well, never forget we are dealing, in the immortal definition of Grandmaster Lavrov, with a “non-agreement capable” US.

And of course there’s the “Taiwan question”. Xi at his sharpest: “’Taiwan independence’ and cross-Strait peace are as irreconcilable as fire and water”. The Americans must exercise “extra caution” in “handling the Taiwan question”.

Xi called it “the most important issue in China-US relations”. For Beijing, this is the ultimate red line. Team Trump may still not understand the stakes. Taiwan is the variable with the potential to reset the whole, optimistic three-year “peaceful” equation to zero.

And incidentally, American MSM spin that Xi traded non-interference by the US in Taiwan for “helping” the US in Iran is absolutely ridiculous. China and Iran have an all-evolving strategic partnership.

While all that was proceeding in Beijing, I had the pleasure of spending a long geopolitical lunch in Shanghai with the remarkable Li Bo, the general director of Guancha, the number one independent media in China, with at least 120 million daily followers.

Among other nuggets, Li Bo explained that Taiwan is not a problem for Beijing: it’s an internal matter that will be solved peacefully. The real problem is the rearming of Japan, especially now when under the frankly militaristic Sanae Takaichi administration.

Now for the real VIPs in the Trump-Xi show. After all the “evil empire” craze, the decoupling hysteria, the de-risking paranoia, the sanctions tsunami, the tariff tsunami, the war rhetoric, we have an oligarchic bunch with a collective market capitalization of over $10 trillion flying to Beijing to literally beg Xi Jinping, in person, for…deals.

Trump was estatic:

“I wanted the number one from each empire! Jensen Huang, Tim Cook, Elon Musk, and the other titans… the best in the world are here, right in front of you.”

Then, the clincher:

“They’re here today to pay respect to you and to China. They come hungry to do business, invest, and create. From our side, it’ll be 100% reciprocal.”

The “indispensable” nation paying tribute to the real 21st century geoeconomic empire. History will have a ball with it.

The keys to the new Temple of Heaven

Tesla, Apple, Boeing, GE Aerospace, everyone may desperately need China’s rare earths: China controls nearly 99% of the global processing capacity for rare-earth minerals. Yet China, structurally, and increasingly, does not need these American behemoths.

The combined revenue exposure to China across the top 12 companies represented by their CEOs on this trip is over $300 billion a year.

Musk needs to keep building Teslas – the Gigafactory, his primary export hub, is outside of Shanghai – without a 100% tariff. Jensen Huang needs chip export licenses so Nvidia may sell into this immense AI market (but China doesn’t need Nvidia anymore). Tim Cook needs Apple’s $70 billion China supply chain to remain steady.

The real problem is BlackRock’s Larry Fink avid for Chinese financial markets to “open up” for extra Wall Street profits (Li Bo told me at best the Chinese will let them open a little office in Hainan island…) Fink, moreover, is the actual new leader of the Davos gang, directly responsible for the funding of AI surveillance data centers all over the US.

The White House readout was beaming on “expanding market access for US businesses into China and increasing Chinese investment into US industries”; “increasing Chinese purchases of US agricultural products”; and Xi expressing “interest in purchasing more US oil”.

Yet there’s not a single word about any “trade discussions” coming from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.

So in theory we had this trillionaire CEO party eager to “open up” China for American business/trade. Business in Shanghai was definitely not impressed. After all China is actively building its own independence – it’s all enshrined in the targets of the new Five-Year Plan – while the US, via these trillionaire CEOs, essentially demonstrated the formalization of its own dependence.

While all this sound and fury was going on in Beijing, the Foreign Ministers of Russia, China (not Wang Yi, he remained in Beijing side by side with Xi), India and, crucially, Iran, and others, were in New Delhi for a very important BRICS summit focused on what Moscow defined as reforming the system of “global governance” with a predominant role for the Global South.

BRICS may be in a coma. But if there’s anyone capable of resurrecting it, it’s Grandmaster Lavrov and Russia, side by side with China and emerging global power Iran. Once again: it’s the new Primakov triangle, RIC (Russia-India-China) which will find the real keys to open a new Temple of Heaven.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 23:25

Software CEO Convicted In Massive $1 Billion Medicare Fraud Scheme Targeting Seniors

In a verdict hailed by federal officials as a major blow against one of the most egregious health care fraud operations in Florida history, a jury in the Southern District of Florida convicted Brett Blackman, 42, of Johnson County, Kansas, on multiple conspiracy charges related to a sprawling scheme that bilked Medicare and other federal programs out of more than $1 billion.

Brett Blackman / Credit: Department of Justice

Blackman, the founder, owner, and CEO of HealthSplash, was found guilty of conspiracy to commit health care fraud and wire fraud, conspiracy to pay and receive health care kickbacks, and conspiracy to defraud the United States and make false statements in connection with health care matters. He faces a maximum of 20 years in prison on the primary fraud counts, plus additional time on the others. Sentencing is scheduled for August 26, 2026, according to the DOJ. 

From "Healthcare Innovator" to Fraud Mastermind

Prior to his legal troubles, Blackman positioned himself as a serial entrepreneur and healthcare technology disruptor. He described HealthSplash as a visionary platform built on blockchain and smart contracts to connect patients, providers, servicers, and payers with transparent, friction-free care. The company aimed to eliminate suffering by delivering healthcare data instantly and shifting the system from reactive to proactive.

Blackman had expanded a medical compliance documentation firm called PMDRx into DMERx (Power Mobility Doctor Rx, LLC) to broaden its offerings. HealthSplash acquired DMERx in September 2017. Court documents portray a starkly different reality: the platform became a tool for generating false and fraudulent doctors’ orders for durable medical equipment (DME), primarily orthotic braces, and other prescriptions.

How the Scheme Worked

Prosecutors said Blackman and co-conspirators aggressively targeted hundreds of thousands of Medicare beneficiaries - often vulnerable seniors - through foreign call centers, spam mailers, and telemarketing. The goal: pressure recipients into accepting medically unnecessary equipment.

Once beneficiaries agreed, the DMERx platform routed orders to telemedicine doctors who signed them—frequently with little or no patient interaction, and sometimes while falsely claiming in-person tests had occurred. Suppliers and pharmacies paid illegal kickbacks for these orders, then billed Medicare and other federal programs (including those serving veterans and military families) more than $1 billion. Federal programs paid out over $450 million on the fraudulent claims.

Evidence at trial included testimony from an undercover agent who posed as a beneficiary. A foreign call center pushed multiple braces on the agent, and a doctor signed orders claiming tests that could only be done in person - despite no real interaction. Blackman’s team allegedly used sham contracts and order manipulation to evade audits.

“This was not health care. It was a billion-dollar fraud machine,” said U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Florida Jason A. Reding Quiñones. Officials emphasized the scheme’s industrial scale and its exploitation of the sick and elderly.

Co-defendant Gary Cox, former CEO of DMERx, was convicted in a prior trial in June 2025 and sentenced to 15 years in prison.

Flashy Lifestyle Amid Alleged Fraud

Federal releases highlighted Blackman’s lavish displays of wealth, including a music video featuring a waterfront mansion and photos of him adorned in gold accessories, including a large dollar-sign necklace.

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche called it “cold, calculated, industrial-scale theft.” FBI and HHS-OIG officials stressed that no web of sham companies would protect fraudsters from accountability.

A photo of the mansion shown in Blackman's music video. / Credit: Department of Justice

The case aligns with broader DOJ efforts, including the recent launch of a dedicated Fraud Division and support for President Trump’s Task Force to Eliminate Fraud.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 23:00