Zero Rss

"A Breakthrough": White House Says Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Announcement Is Imminent

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

The White House is on the verge of a formal announcement on the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — and the official leading the charge says the hard part is done.

Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, told an interviewer this week that the administration has cleared a major legal hurdle in standing up the reserve. 

“We’ll have an announcement,” Witt said.

“I wish I could say more… It’s a breakthrough as far as getting everything in place, legally sound, properly safeguarding the assets.” 

The signal follows a similar declaration Witt made at the Bitcoin 2026 conference in Las Vegas, where he told the crowd an update was coming within weeks.

President Trump signed the executive order establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve on March 6, 2025.

Since then, Witt says his deputy Harry John has driven the interagency process: identifying what legal authorities exist, commissioning the necessary legal memos, and building a custody and reporting infrastructure across federal agencies that were designed for gold, not private keys. 

The reserve holds an estimated 328,372 BTC — roughly 1.6% of total global supply — accumulated through law enforcement seizures, including the Silk Road takedown, the 2022 Bitfinex hack recovery, and years of criminal forfeitures. 

The executive order bars the Treasury from selling a single coin.

A government bitcoin hack lit a fire for the U.S. government

Witt pointed to a breach at the U.S. Marshals Service as proof that the reserve’s security mandate is urgent. A government contractor named John Daghita allegedly stole more than $46 million in cryptocurrency from USMS custody accounts in late 2025, and the FBI arrested him in March 2026. A separate $24 million theft was traced to October 2024. 

“It’s a case in point for why it was so necessary that the president established the SBR,” Witt said.

An executive order dies the moment a new president takes office. That vulnerability is the core argument for two bills now moving through Congress.

Rep. Nick Begich recently rebranded the BITCOIN Act as the American Reserves Modernization Act (ARMA), which would authorize the U.S. Treasury to purchase up to 200,000 BTC per year for five years — with holdings locked for a minimum of 20 years.

Senator Cynthia Lummis has put Congress on a deadline, pushing for a vote before the summer recess as midterm campaigning begins to consume floor time. 

If the BITCOIN Act passes, the Treasury’s first open-market Bitcoin purchase is projected for Q4 2026 — making the U.S. the first sovereign nation to actively accumulate Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 19:15

"Need Solidarity , Not Stigma": African Officials Say US Ebola-Related Restrictions Unnecessary

The U.S. government on May 18 said it will not let people without U.S. passports enter the United States if they have been to African countries affected by, or close to, a new Ebola outbreak within the past 21 days.

As Zachary Stieber reports for The Epoch Times, the countries are Uganda, Congo, and South Sudan, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in a public health order.

The order, signed by acting CDC Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, suspends the right of people from those countries to enter the United States because of “the serious risk posed by the introduction of Ebola disease into the United States by covered aliens based on the emergent outbreak of Ebola disease” in Congo.

The public health order will be in effect for 30 days, according to the CDC.

Federal law enables the CDC to prohibit entry by certain migrants if officials judge that barring their entry will prevent the “introduction, transmission, or spread of communicable diseases from foreign countries.”

U.S. officials also said they are going to step up public health screening and monitoring of other travelers who have arrived from areas affected by the outbreak. Screening includes identifying symptoms such as fever and analyzing possible exposure history.

“At this time, CDC assesses the immediate risk to the general U.S. public as low, but we will continue to evaluate the evolving situation and may adjust public health measures as additional information becomes available,” the public health agency said in a statement.

One American who was in Congo has tested positive for Ebola, and six others were exposed, CDC officials said in a briefing on May 18.

African officials on May 15 first confirmed the outbreak in Congo, reporting 80 confirmed and suspected deaths, and hundreds of confirmed and suspected infections.

The outbreak has since spread to Uganda, and South Sudan borders the region in Congo where many of the cases have been recorded.

The World Health Organization has declared a public health emergency of international concern over the situation, in part because the organization said there were “significant uncertainties to the true number of infected persons and geographic spread associated with this event at the present time.”

The virus behind the outbreak, the Bundibugyo virus, has no vaccine or specific treatment.

Dr. Satish Pillai, the CDC’s manager for Ebola response, told reporters on a call on May 18 that the outbreak is “a highly fluid situation” and that the CDC’s response includes deploying experts to the region as well as helping authorities in Africa attempt to prevent further infections and trace contacts of confirmed cases.

African Officials Say US Ebola-Related Restrictions Unnecessary

Stieber goes to report that African officials said on May 19 that travel restrictions imposed by the U.S. government over fears that Ebola could enter the United States are unnecessary and counterproductive.

The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said “travel restrictions and border closures are not the solution to outbreaks” and called on countries to refrain from imposing such restrictions.

“The world must avoid repeating the mistakes of previous health emergencies, where fear-driven measures caused major economic damage without delivering proportionate public health benefits,” the public health agency said.

“Africa needs solidarity, not stigma. Africa needs investment, not isolation. Africa needs partnerships that strengthen both economies and health systems. No one is safe until Africa is safe.”

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters at an unrelated event on Monday that he was concerned about Ebola.

Heidi Overton, deputy director of the White House Domestic Policy Council, said during the event that there are “no cases of Ebola in America.”

“We want to keep it that way, and we are doing everything we can to support Americans in the region,” she added.

Congolese authorities said on Tuesday that there are more than 130 suspected deaths and more than 500 suspected cases linked to the outbreak.

The organization said that international officials should improve communication on risk, invest more in surveillance and infection prevention, accelerate the development of vaccines, and expand laboratory testing for the Bundibugyo virus.

Case fatality rates from past outbreaks caused by the virus have ranged from 30 percent to 50 percent, according to the World Health Organization.

“In the absence of a vaccine, there are many other measures countries can take to stop the spread of the virus and save lives, even without medical countermeasures, including risk communication and community engagement,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the organization, told the 79th World Health Assembly in Geneva, Switzerland, on Tuesday.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 18:50

Americans Who Can Are Dropping Medical Insurance

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

Have you observed what is happening with medical insurance in the United States? There is an upheaval taking place. You might be experiencing it yourself.

The Wakely Consulting Group has taken upon itself to track trends in the medical insurance market, both pricing and participation.

Their latest report has documented an ongoing and profound shift, one so dramatic that it portends something truly meaningful for the future.

Lacking serious reform of the system from Congress, it seems that consumers are taking matters into their own hands.

Congress declined to extend subsidies for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) starting in January. Consumers have examined their bills and plans in light of the price increases which range from 25 to 115 percent depending on conditions and levels. More than a million people have dropped their coverage entirely. More will do so through the end of the year.

Wakely comments: “Based on unique data collection from 80 percent of the ACA individual market, Wakely ... estimates a material reduction in enrollment for 2026, ranging on average from 17 percent to 26 percent in total.”

This is happening because, fortunately, there is no individual mandate to be enrolled in anything since the Supreme Court deleted that portion of the program.

Individuals are downgrading their coverage to plans with fewer benefits and higher deductibles. Or they are just doing without and paying cash or shopping for crowdhealth options.

The implications for the ACA, also known as Obamacare, are profound.

First, this changes the risk pool calculation in ways that are disruptive. The whole machinery fundamentally depends on large risk pools that mask costs and separate premiums from actual individual circumstance. With such large pools, the architects hoped to take a sideways route to a privatized form of socialized medicine.

That scheme now lies in tatters.

Second, with so many people leaving (obviously those who don’t anticipate system needs) those who remain in the system are less healthy: the very people more willing to pay the higher premiums are those who expect to use the services. From an actuarial point of view, this change puts further pressure on prices. And with risk pools shrinking and data pointing to higher costs, we have a system that seems to be eating itself on both ends.

You would think that the implosion of the medical-care system of the world’s biggest economy would be big news. Somehow it is not. Why has this not been widely reported?

A theory as to why: It is happening too slowly and with too much data diffusion. It is genuinely difficult to get a handle on the pace of the increases because every state is different, every age group is priced differently, and the diversity of real-world experience not only differs on the household level but even on the event level.

Which is to say, you never know until it hits you precisely what you will pay given any particular medical-care event. As for the premiums and deductibles, people are remarkably unwilling to share personal stories of what they face due to privacy concerns and also some element of personal shame related to financial burdens.

The system as it stands is so enormously complicated that hardly anyone can really understand the whole, much less characterize the aggregate experience with the sector. It keeps growing larger, more expensive, and more exploitative, but also more complicated and diffuse, leaving writers like me ever less willing to make a judgment on it.

Price indexes themselves are a mess because of the way adjustments in the data are made, even as regulations and restrictions protect the industry against mandates for disclosures. Just getting the data is a gigantic challenge, as anyone can tell you who is currently trying to reform the system.

Regardless, the experience this year has been bad enough to cause many families to throw in the towel and simply decide what they had previously believed was unthinkable: just bailing on the entire thing. People with employer-provided health care cannot do this for now but those on contract income and with companies with fewer than 50 employees can make choices to change providers or consider opting out completely.

I’ve spoken to many people about what all this implies. What could it mean simply to go without medical insurance at all? It means saving a vast amount of money during extremely hard times. For a family, premiums can be higher than a mortgage on a home, and that is before a single medical service has been used. Once you use it for any reason beyond a simple checkup, the costs only mount from there.

The cost is the fear of a catastrophic event that would lead to utter bankruptcy. But with premiums rising so quickly, many people feel like taking that risk is worth it. If there were catastrophic plans available that did not include the supposed benefit of wellness checkups and preventive care, they would be seized up immediately by millions.

Sadly, the entire system is designed to nearly exclude access to such plans, precisely because that would only shrink risk pools further and drive up costs. A rational reform would simply open up all medical insurance markets but too many in industry perceive that as a threat, which is why this solution is not considered politically viable.

If you have a substantial amount of savings for a rainy day in the bank, the risk associated with dropping coverage entirely is certainly worth taking, Clearly plenty are doing so. Among them, they have discovered that presenting yourself at the doctor or hospital as an uninsured patient causes the costs of care to be quoted as far less than the insured price. Sometimes the cash-only savings can be 50–80 percent.

Everyone knows this. It’s a remarkable fact and very obvious evidence of legal and permissible gouging. Still, it goes on as if it is just fine.

Hence, there can be a major financial advantage to going without insurance entirely. It’s often the case that cash can get you a better deal for a car or a home, but it is true many times over with medical provision. If you are willing to leave the country, the savings can be far greater still.

This is precisely why so many are choosing this route rather than paying sometimes thousands of dollars a month for coverage that they do not use. Other options that people are looking at services like Direct Primary Care, where you pay only $100 a month to have constant access to a prescribing physician who knows your health care needs.

A major beneficiary of these trends are crowd-health services, the new kids on the block that are disrupting the entire industry. It is not insurance. Those who subscribe present themselves to service providers as uninsured and hence benefit from far lower prices. The company then negotiates prices for you, covers them under most conditions, and charges separately for known costs such as pregnancy.

It’s a new model that works with the existing system. If we had reforms that permitted broader Health Savings Accounts, and rewarded opt-outs for employer-provided plans, the crowd health model could reform the entire system. For now, it is a niche market but could be vastly larger by year’s end when many more millions will simply leave the system entirely.

Under current trends, you can see what’s happening here. The system is reforming itself without the permission of the politicians. More of this would happen with some simple reforms like broadening health savings accounts, permitting purely catastrophic coverage, and permitting premiums to adjust based on individual risk. Lacking such reforms, people are leaving anyway.

You might decide to make this choice yourself, provided you are able.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 18:25

Mamdani Touts First City-Owned Grocery Store

Authored by Chris Wade via The Center Square,

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani on Monday announced the site of the latest city-owned grocery store as the democratic socialist looks to make good on a key campaign pledge.

The 20,000-square-foot store, located in the Bronx’s Hunts Point neighborhood, is part of a $70 million plan that includes opening stores in the city’s five boroughs. The plan calls for hiring a private operator to run the store under the city’s pricing rules. The South Bronx store will be part of a new affordable housing development rising from the site of a former juvenile detention facility.

He said the store, when it opens next year, will help “level the playing field” for shoppers who are struggling to make ends meet in one of the city’s poorest neighborhoods.

“Seventy-seven percent of households in surrounding neighborhoods cannot afford basic needs,” Mamdani said in remarks Monday.

“More than 50% of households have relied on public assistance in the last 12 months alone. And when nearby families go shopping for groceries, there are not enough affordable options nearby.”

Mamdani’s push to open city-run grocery stores fulfills a campaign promise for the democratic socialist, whose lefty agenda also includes plans for universal childcare, tuition-free community colleges, and free bus service.

Many of those plans have been put on hold as the new mayor grapples with a record budget shortfall.

Under the mayor’s plans, which still require City Council approval, the grocery stores wouldn’t pay rent or property taxes, allowing them to keep their overhead costs down and pass on savings to shoppers, according to the Mamdani administration.

Allowing New York City to get into the grocery store business has plenty of detractors, including the United Bodegas of America, which says it will hurt small businesses and the city’s economy.

John Catsimatidis, CEO of New York City grocery chain Gristedes, has threatened to pull out of the market if Mamdani moves ahead with the plans, saying he couldn’t compete with city-run supermarkets.

In his remarks Monday, Mandani turned a quote from the late Republican President Ronald Reagan upside down to make his argument for the taxpayer-funded bodegas.

“He famously said, the nine most terrifying words in the English language are, ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.’ It’s a good quote, but I disagree. I think nine more terrifying words are actually, ‘I worked all day and can’t feed my family,'” Mamdani said.

“We are going to use the power of government to lower prices and make it easier for New Yorkers to put food on the table,” Mamdani said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 17:40

Indian Airlines Beg Refiners To Delay Jet Fuel Hikes

Earlier we reported that after issuing a code red about a month ago, with several airlines warning they may run out of kerosene in weeks if not days, European refiners and airlines have since backtracked on their earlier warnings; instead they now have “almost zero” concerns that jet fuel could run out over summer. That's because, as we explained in "Where To Find The Next Phase Of The Global Energy Shock", where we showed that refiners have ramped up production away from cheaper gasoline and toward much more expensive jet fuel...

... while higher imports from the US, Nigeria and Norway have also helped to stabilize supply. As Rabobank said, "It’s the price mechanism at work: jet fuel prices surged in April and are currently around 60% above pre-war levels."

But while Europe may have procured much needed jet fuel, in many cases thanks to state subsidies which will transform into more expensive debt as Japan found out this week, India has been less lucky.

As Bloomberg reports, India’s airlines have asked state-run oil refiners to hold off on hiking jet fuel prices for domestic flights until the conflict in the Middle East ends, in a bid to alleviate their rising cost pressures and mounting losses.

The proposal was floated by the country's leading airlines including Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet, and is being considered by the refiners. India’s oil and gas ministry is also involved in discussions, and may intervene again as it did in April and May. A decision is expected before June 1.

India's so-called aviation turbine fuel prices are set by the country’s oil marketing companies, which usually make any revisions on the first day of the month. The price setting has been deregulated for years, but in April, after global oil prices surged due to the Iran conflict, the government limited the most recent jet fuel price hike to 25% and required the oil majors to keep them constant in May.

According to Bloomberg, the state-owned refiners, which include Indian Oil Corp., Hindustan Petroleum Corp. and Bharat Petroleum Corp., are also discussing whether to raise jet fuel prices in June by up to 25% for domestic flights. They have been selling jet fuel for domestic flights at about 105,000 rupees ($1,090) per kiloliter, incurring a loss of 92,000 rupees per kiloliter.  

The curbs apply only to fuel for domestic flights. Jet fuel prices for international flights, which are not regulated, doubled in April and climbed further to $1,511.86 per kiloliter in May.  

Oil constitutes around 40% of airlines’ costs in India. The industry recently warned of flight suspensions and other business disruptions if the government doesn’t put a lid on fuel prices. They are also lobbying for tax reductions or deferments, and some have reduced flight schedules due to a falloff in demand that’s partly a result of higher fares. Airlines are also grappling with a weaker rupee, which makes it costlier for them to pay in dollars for aircraft leases and overseas airport charges. 

Since the Iran war, India has announced a slew of measures that include rebates on plane landing and parking charges, regulating increases in jet fuel prices, and tax reductions on fuel for flights operating out of Delhi and Mumbai, its biggest airports.

International flights have also been impacted from the Middle East conflict, as airlines were using the Iran airspace to fly to Europe and America after Pakistan banned Indian airlines from using its airspace earlier. The carriers have passed on higher costs to fliers in the form of increased fares, which has depressed demand in the world’s third-largest domestic aviation market.

State-run refiners on Tuesday raised road transport fuel prices for a second time in less than a week, increasing prices of diesel and gasoline in New Delhi by 1% following a 3% hike last Friday. Those increases are modest in comparison to the 50% surge in Brent crude since the war began.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 17:20

Trump Announces Expansion Of TrumpRx With 600 New Generic Drugs

Via American Greatness,

President Donald Trump announced Monday that the administration is dramatically expanding the number of medications available through TrumpRx.gov, adding more than 600 generic drugs in what the White House described as another push to lower prescription costs for Americans.

Trump unveiled the expansion during remarks at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House campus, calling the move a major step toward making medications more affordable.

🚨 @POTUS announces a major expansion of https://t.co/qDpny1gZzN to feature more than 600 new generic prescription drugs — delivering even more transparency, choice, and savings for Americans. pic.twitter.com/MuPLuYLSB2

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 18, 2026

“Today I’m thrilled to announce that we’re increasing the number of drugs available on TrumpRx by nearly seven times, adding over 600 affordable generics to the website, working with industry partners,” Trump said.

The president argued that generic medications often provide the same results as expensive brand-name drugs at a fraction of the cost.

“Cost-effective generic drugs are often available at just a tiny fraction of the price of their brand-name equivalents,” Trump said.

“Sometimes they’re better with the same dosage, the same effectiveness, and the same active ingredients.”

Trump said the expanded platform would offer some of the lowest prescription prices available to Americans, in some cases even beating insurance co-pays and out-of-pocket costs.

“With these additions, TrumpRx will feature the best and lowest prices on prescriptions used by tens of millions of Americans,” he said. “We’re going to be lower.”

The White House also demonstrated a new feature on the website that allows users to compare drug prices at local pharmacies using an interactive map. The presentation was led by Chief Design Officer Joe Gebbia.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. praised Trump’s efforts during the event and argued that previous administrations had promised lower drug prices without producing results.

“President Trump has asked us to make this, our country, the most affordable medication in the world, and he succeeded in doing that,” Kennedy said.

“I want to say one last thing: President Bush promised to do this, President Clinton promised to do it, President Biden promised to do it, President Obama promised to do it, President Trump actually got it done,” he added.

One of the administration’s partners in the effort is Cost Plus Drugs, co-founded by businessman Mark Cuban, who attended the announcement despite backing former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.

Cuban praised the initiative and emphasized that lowering drug costs should transcend partisan politics.

“Republicans want cheaper drugs, independents want cheaper drugs, Democrats want cheaper drugs, and together I think we’re going to do something special,” Cuban said.

Speaking afterward outside the West Wing, Cuban argued Americans should judge policies based on whether they improve people’s lives rather than reflexively opposing them because of politics.

“The only thing I care about is can they reduce the stress of the American people,” Cuban said.

“TrumpRx and Cost Plus Drugs working together is one step towards reducing the stress.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 17:00

Chaos Erupts In Bolivia As Socialists Unleash General Strikes And Riots

Socialists in Bolivia, mobilized through the national labor union, highland farmer federations, and supporters of former left-wing President Evo Morales, have ignited social unrest over the U.S.-backed, market-oriented policy agenda of President Rodrigo Paz.

The turmoil comes as the Trump administration seeks to shift the Americas away from socialist regimes and closer to Washington's pro-capitalist stance.

En Bolivia, obreros, campesinos, maestros de escuela, indígenas y transportistas, llevan mas de 2 semanas paralizando el país contra las políticas neoliberales del gobierno de Rodrigo Paz, y medios occidentales ni informan.pic.twitter.com/ruAizBAOYV

— Aníbal Garzón 🌎 (@AnibalGarzon) May 17, 2026

Demonstrators clashed with police in La Paz, attempted to breach government buildings, and set up barricades amid weeks of blockades that have disrupted supplies and driven up grocery prices.

Bloomberg:

• BANK BRANCHES IN LA PAZ, BOLIVIA SUSPEND OPERATIONS AMID UNREST

President Paz accused forces linked to Morales and drug traffickers of backing the demonstrations.

Bolivia's government has ordered the arrest of all the main leaders of the indigenous movements and mineworkers unions.

They're being charged for Terrorism for having organised the general strike against hunger. Strike continues regardless, now in day 7. pic.twitter.com/5ISk3KPb68

— Ollie Vargas (@Ollie_Vargas_) May 19, 2026

Paz’s election last year abruptly ended two decades of nation-killing socialist rule in the landlocked South American country. Voters, exhausted by economic turmoil, surging inflation, a severe foreign-currency crisis, and declining natural gas output, opted for political change.

The Socialist Labour Party in the U.K. stands in "solidarity" with the Bolivian people...

🚨We send our solidarity to the Bolivian people.

🔴Just six months after US-backed President Rodrigo Paz took office, protesters are demanding his resignation. Bolivia's government has ordered the arrest of all the main leaders of the indigenous movements and mineworkers unions.… pic.twitter.com/TnYzuVIOIv

— Socialist Labour Party (@soclp_uk) May 19, 2026

Meanwhile, Bolivia's currency crisis has been a long time in the making under decades of state-heavy socialist rule.

By 2025, Bolivia was facing a severe dollar shortage, fuel lines, and a forty-year-high inflation. Socialism reached its endgame last year with President Paz's election victory. Socialists squandered the nation's inheritance.

Socialism has also reached its endgame in other countries, including:

• Argentina, 2023: Voters rejected the ruling Peronist government and elected libertarian Javier Milei amid a severe inflation and currency crisis.

• Chile, 2025: Conservative José Antonio Kast defeated the ruling left’s candidate, Jeannette Jara, marking a sharp rightward shift after the Boric era.

• As well as the US removal of socialist Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela. 

Bolivia’s unrest by socialists attempting to shut down the economy should serve as a warning that socalist NGOs and unions in the US could attempt general strike in the US to derail the economy - we outlined that here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 16:40

Americans Are Getting Behind On Their Debts At A Very Frightening Pace

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

U.S. households are now 18.79 trillion dollars in debt. In 1980, U.S. households were just 1.4 trillion dollars in debt. Over the past several decades we have witnessed a household debt binge that is unlike anything that we have ever witnessed in our entire history. But if consumers could handle that debt load, there wouldn’t be such a high level of concern. Unfortunately, just like we witnessed prior to the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, Americans are getting behind on their debts at a staggering rate. This isn’t going to end well, but of course many of you know that already.

The latest numbers published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York show that delinquency rates for auto loans, student loans and credit card debt have all soared to very alarming levels…

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) published new data showing that the share of Americans behind on a range of household consumer debts reached all-time highs in the first quarter of 2026. As the nation hurdles toward an historical record of $19 trillion in total household debt, Americans saw the highest rates of auto loan delinquency that FRBNY has ever recorded, rates of credit card delinquency near those last seen at the height of the 2008 financial crisis, and student loan delinquency at its worst since before the COVID-era payment pause.

Thanks to our accelerating cost of living crisis, most U.S. households are barely scraping by from month to month these days.

So if you are feeling financially squeezed right now, I want you to know that you are not alone.

As financial pressure rises, an increasing number of households are reaching a breaking point.

As a result, we are beginning to witness a tsunami of delinquencies…

While families took on more debt, they also fell behind. Credit card delinquency rates are now the highest they have been in 16 years (13.1 percent). Overall student loan delinquency rates soared to 10.3 percent, the highest recorded since 2020. Significantly more student loan borrowers are also entering serious delinquency, with their loans more than 90 days past due (10.9 percent) compared to the first quarter of 2025 (8.0 percent). In fact, delinquency rates have increased for all credit types tracked by the FRBNY since the final quarter of 2025.

Those figures are deeply troubling.

And I haven’t even mentioned mortgages yet.

In April, there were more than 42,000 foreclosure filings…

New data released by real estate analytics firm ATTOM found that 42,430 properties nationwide received foreclosure filings in April 2026, including default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions.

Is that a high number?

Yes, it is.

In fact, it is 18 percent higher than last year’s very high figure for the month of April…

Foreclosure filings across the US have surged 18 percent compared to last year in a troubling sign that mounting financial pressure is beginning to hit homeowners.

It is a red flag that is reminiscent of the foreclosure spike in the run up to the 2008 Great Recession – that financial pressure is mounting for thousands of families.

Many of you clearly remember that we experienced a growing wave of foreclosures well before the financial markets started to crash in late 2008.

It was obvious that the housing bubble was crashing way in advance, and we can see the same thing happening again.

In Seattle, the number of homes listed for sale is nearly twice the usual figure, and prices are beginning to fall…

There are 8,630 homes listed for sale across the Seattle metro right now. In a normal April, there are about 4,600.

Nick Gerli, CEO of the real estate analytics firm Reventure, posted that data on Sunday on X. His read: Seattle’s housing market is going through a historic inventory shock, driven by layoffs, historic unaffordability, and outbound migration. King County values are already down 2.5% year over year. Prices are falling, and a typical listing is still right around $1 million, with a monthly mortgage payment of $7,000 to $8,000. That’s $84,000 to $96,000 a year just on the mortgage. The median household income across the Seattle metro is about $112,000 before taxes. After federal and state deductions, that household is taking home somewhere around $85,000 to $90,000. The mortgage alone consumes virtually all of it.

The market is cracking. Regular people still can’t afford to buy.

Yes, the market in Seattle is most definitely cracking.

And the same thing could be said about dozens of other markets all over the nation.

It is inevitable that home prices will fall because we have reached a point where most of the population simply cannot afford a typical mortgage payment.

In our “K-shaped economy”, those at the very top have been thriving while the vast majority of the country has been deeply struggling.

Sadly, there are a lot of young adults out there that have simply stopped trying.

This is particularly true for young men, and the numbers clearly show that millions upon millions of them have chosen to drop out of the labor force…

The Department of Labor keeps careful track of employment and the demographics thereof. Their latest report on men in the labor force is both mysterious and deeply alarming. It turns out that the labor force is missing about 7 million men who would otherwise be working. Close to a third of working-age men have vanished from the labor force.

The labor force participation rate among “prime age men,” age 25 to 54, in the 1950s approached 100 percent. Now it is 89 percent, meaning roughly 11 percent are not in the labor force (neither working nor looking for work).

Among all men over 16 years of age, the rate is a devastatingly low 66 percent, so about one-third are gone. Among U.S.-born men, nearly 22 percent are gone.

This is really quite shocking.

We really do have a national crisis on our hands.

The number of homeless Americans is at an all-time high.

Most of them are men.

The number of drug addicts in our country is at an all-time high.

Most of them are men.

So many people have been falling through the cracks in the system, and it seems to get worse with each passing year.

Meanwhile, an increasing number of households are falling behind on their debts and America’s middle class is steadily shrinking.

All of the long-term trends are taking us in the wrong direction, and it appears that our economic problems will only accelerate during the months ahead.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 16:20

Memorial Day Gas Demand Surge Collides With Hormuz Shock As $5 Demand-Destruction Line Nears

Drivers heading into Memorial Day weekend are set to face some of the highest regular gasoline prices at the pump in years.

With the U.S. national average sitting at $4.53 per gallon (according to AAA data) and no resolution yet on a U.S.-Iran peace deal or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, pump prices risk rising even higher into the holiday weekend as the summer driving season begins.

Let's start with the chart of the day: AAA retail gas prices in the U.S. on a seasonal basis closely track the 2022 run, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict was in its first several months.

Gas prices in 2022 did not top out until mid-June.

The impending problem, with no near-term Hormuz resolution, as JPMorgan analysts recently warned, is that the world is spiraling toward a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of crude oil if the maritime chokepoint remains blocked into June.

Former CIA analysts and current RBC commodities head Helima Croft told clients days ago that she is "very skeptical of a June grand reopening or even that maritime traffic will return to February 27 levels for the foreseeable future."

AAA Retail Gas Price Map

For Memorial Day 2026, AAA forecasts around 39.1 million Americans will travel by car, representing 87% of all holiday travelers. That will create a meaningful near-term lift in gas demand, especially from Thursday through Monday.

EIA notes that gas demand typically rises into the summer driving season, while last year's Memorial Day period coincided with the highest weekly implied gas demand of 2025 up to that point.

So, in an already tight gas market, a busy Memorial Day driving weekend can certainly pull more barrels through the system, support pump prices, and may only lead to higher prices if no Hormuz resolution is found in the near term. The demand destruction level sits around $5.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 15:40

Third Iran-Linked 'Shadow Fleet' Tanker Seized By US Navy Off South Asia

Update(1500ET): A WSJ report Tuesday afternoon has revealed that the US seized an "Iran-linked ship" in the Indian Ocean overnight, which had not previously been revealed, at a moment President Trump is threatening to resume airstrikes on Iran, but has given a few more 'days' for Tehran to come to the table.

"The tanker, called Skywave, was sanctioned by the US in March for its role in transporting Iranian oil," the report says. These kind of high seas interdictions are happening with semi-regularity at this point, especially in waters of south and southeast Asia. The report details:

Ship-tracking data showed it sailing just west of Malaysia on Tuesday after transiting the Malacca Strait. The ship was likely loaded with more than a million barrels of crude at Iran’s Kharg Island in February, according to brokers and data from Lloyds List Intelligence. 

It marks at least the third time the U.S. has seized an oil tanker in connection with its crackdown of Iran-linked shadow-fleet vessels.

Meanwhile, also on Tuesday VP JD Vance had a meeting with the president related to the Iran crisis, and engaged in another testy exchange with the media:

COLLINS: You last week denied that the president said he was not taking Americans' financial situation into consideration when he's making decisions on the Iran war. He's since said it again, calling it a 'perfect statement.'

VANCE: See Kaitlan, what you did is you… pic.twitter.com/FFy9MTUkQ9

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 19, 2026

*  *  *

Update(1140ET): President Trump has on Tuesday while fielding questions from reporters repeated his line that Iran is 'begging' for a deal. "They're begging to make a deal. I hope we don't have to do the war, but we may have to give them another big hit. We may have to give them another big hit. You'll know very soon."

His threat to give them another "big hit" was coupled with the assertion that he was just one hour away from ordering new attacks on Iran Monday, but was asked by Gulf allies to given diplomacy just a little longer:

Trump: "I was an hour away" from striking Iran on Monday.

There was also the below moment where he again talked timeline, saying he's ready to resume military action in a few 'days' if Iran doesn't comply:

Reporter: How many days does Iran have to come to the table?

Trump: Two or three days. Maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Maybe early next week. A limited period of time. pic.twitter.com/yAAfv2jR20

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 19, 2026

Iran for its part says it stands ready to "confront aggression" and remains in a high state of military alert.

Also, tensions with nearby Gulf states are still soaring, and amid reports that drones have recently been launched from Iraqi territory - likely the work of Shia paramilitary organizations which are closely allied with Iran.

(Reuters) - The United Arab Emirates' Defence Ministry said on Tuesday that a drone that caused a fire at its nuclear power plant on Sunday had been launched from Iraq.

Emirati officials have said the UAE has the full right to respond to such "terrorist attacks". https://t.co/Skv8LEkkRy

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) May 19, 2026

*  *  *

In a huge and unexpected announcement, amid stalled US-Iran peace talks - which have proven a failure and illusive thus far, NATO now says it could deploy military assets to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Per breaking newswires Tuesday late morning:

NATO TO CONSIDER HORMUZ DEPLOYMENT IF STRAIT NOT OPEN BY JULY

President Trump has continuously chastised the NATO alliance for being largely bankrolled by Washington but at the same time fence-sitting when it comes to forming a coalition to patrol and reopen the vital energy transit waterway. Oil plummeted on the initial headline, seeing in it a positive for the potential that crude transit in the Persian Gulf could again be opened up soon:

And Bloomberg freshly reports:

NATO is discussing the possibility of helping ships pass through the blocked Strait of Hormuz if the waterway isn’t reopened by early July, according to a senior official in the military alliance.

The idea has support from several members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but doesn’t yet have the necessary unanimous support, said a diplomat from a NATO country. Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity. Leaders from NATO countries will meet in Ankara July 7-8.

But July feels very far away at this point, and anything could happen between now and then, as Washington continues to threaten renewed military action, and Iran says it remains on high alert.

NATO defense chiefs are meeting this week, where also high on the agenda will be the following:

At this week's summit, military chiefs from all 32 member states will examine the impact that consistent rapid consumption may have on NATO's collective capabilities and deterrent power as Russia continues to threaten allies.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 15:04

Nigeria Needs New Export Markets As UAE's Exit Rattles OPEC

By Tsvetana Paraskova of Oilprice.com

Nigeria should market its crude oil to new buyers as the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC is dislocating the balance that the cartel and the OPEC+ group have been seeking for years, according to Wole Ogunsanya, chairman of the Petroleum Technology Association of Nigeria (PETAN).

The official urged Nigeria’s state oil and gas firm NNPC and other producers of Nigerian crude to tap new markets.

“When OPEC gives you a quota, it’s left for you to find who is going to buy it,” Nigerian outlet This Day quoted Ogunsanya as saying.

“And we have one of the best crude oil in the world. So we need NNPC and all producers to market Nigerian production,” the official added.

The abrupt exit of the United Arab Emirates from OPEC and OPEC+ would disrupt the balance the groups have been keeping for years, according to Ogunsanya.

“The decision by the UAE, which they have a sovereign right to do, is for their country’s interest. Our opinion is that it’s going to cause a dislocation of that equilibrium, the ability of OPEC and OPEC+, to manage the price of oil,” he added.

The UAE quit OPEC effective May 1 to pursue its national interests after years of quarreling with fellow cartel members over output quotas and their share of total production capacity.

For years, the UAE has been working to boost its crude oil production capacity to 5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027. The UAE insisted that it should be allowed in the OPEC and OPEC+ production deals to actually use more of its growing spare capacity. The country, alongside Saudi Arabia, is one of the few in the region – and the world – that held spare production capacity before the Middle East conflict began.

Nigeria, for its part, has struggled to pump to its quota in recent years as sabotage often led to force majeure at major export streams. However, with a recent crackdown on oil theft and sabotage in the Niger Delta, Nigeria has managed to increase crude production and aims for further growth by 2030.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 15:00

The Democrats Are About To Destroy John Fetterman

John Fetterman has become the most interesting politician in America, and the Democratic Party’s most uncomfortable mirror. His willingness to speak honestly, vote his conscience, and refuse to define himself purely in opposition to President Donald Trump has made him a hero to some and a traitor to others. 

Back in March, he declared the party had no real leader except Trump Derangement Syndrome. Democrats, according to Fetterman, are so consumed with opposing President Donald Trump that they've failed to construct a coherent agenda of their own. That's not a fringe critique. It's a fairly accurate description of where the opposition party stands as we head toward the 2026 midterms. 

Last week, Sen. John Fetterman wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post making the case that he'd make a terrible Republican, and he's right. He's pro-choice, firmly behind legal marijuana, a committed supporter of LGBT rights, a staunch defender of SNAP benefits, and a reliable friend to organized labor. His overall voting record is overwhelmingly aligned with the Democratic caucus.

“It wasn’t long ago when Democrats wanted a secure border. I voted on an immigration bill in 2024 to make sure an influx the size of Pittsburgh doesn’t come through the border like it did under the previous administration,” he wrote. “I have co-sponsored legislation to stop the flow of fentanyl. I was the lead Democrat on the Laken Riley Act, and I strongly believe that someone who comes here illegally and commits a violent crime should be deported. Full stop.”

He noted how his party used to oppose government shutdowns because they put “American livelihoods at risk” and held workers “hostage.” Yet, he stood alone as a Democrat when he voted to end his party’s recent shutdowns, saying he “took no pleasure in voting against my party” but felt that keeping “the lights on” for TSA, homeland security, airports, and “everyday Americans” mattered more than “partisan games.” 

As far as he’s concerned, his occasional departures on border security, crime, and Israel are a sign of his party becoming more extreme, not him becoming more conservative.

In a recent conversation on Reason's Reason Interview podcast with Nick Gillespie, Fetterman was asked to reflect on how his politics had changed since he backed Bernie Sanders in 2016. His answer cut to the heart of the Democratic Party's ongoing identity crisis. "Well, I mean, you know, in 2016, it was much more about the minimum wage and some other very basic kinds of things," he said. "And now that's just turned into much more standing with Cuba, standing with Venezuela, standing with the Iranian regime, and turned that into much more becoming more increasingly anti-American for me. So my views really haven't changed that much." The punchline came shortly after: "What's really changed is the party."

That is a sitting Democratic senator describing his own party's base as "increasingly anti-American,” and describes himself as lonely inside the party he still agrees with over 90 percent of the time. And how has the party responded to one of its more prominent voices offering this kind of candid self-assessment? 

By quietly beginning to show him the door.

A report from Punchbowl News last month made it quite clear how his party sees him. Pennsylvania Democrats on Capitol Hill wouldn't commit to supporting a Fetterman reelection bid, and none would explicitly endorse him. Rep. Brendan Boyle, who is rumored to be eyeing a 2028 Senate run himself, said he'd "be very surprised if [Fetterman] ran in the Democratic primary." Rep. Chris Deluzio, also said to be interested in the seat, acknowledged "serious disagreements" with Fetterman over the war in Iran, before adding a diplomatic "we'll see what comes after '26." Rep. Summer Lee simply said of Fetterman seeking reelection, “Up to him. At his own peril."

That's the kind of language you use for someone the party has already written off. And clearly they have. He still votes with Democrats more than 90 percent of the time. And yet Pennsylvania Democrats won't even give him a courtesy endorsement for a future Senate bid. 

Democratic voters in Pennsylvania aren’t any more forgiving.

A February Quinnipiac poll found that Fetterman sits at 46 percent approval among Pennsylvania voters overall. This isn’t great, but the partisan breakdown is most interesting: he’s underwater 62%–22% among Democrats, while running 74%–18% among Republicans. 

As far as the party's progressive base goes, anything less than 100% compliance isn't enough, especially when you break with the party on issues like Israel, immigration, or anything that can be characterized as insufficiently hostile to the right. Fetterman's independent streak might help him win a general election, but it won’t help him win a Democratic primary. 

That's the trap, and he appears to know it.

He's made it quite clear he won't become a Republican. His op-ed was practically a manifesto on the subject. But a man who describes himself as "lonely" inside his own party, who watches that party signal it won't back him for reelection, has a big decision to make. Will he try to win reelection as a Democrat, become an independent, or not run at all? One thing is for sure: his future inside the Democratic Party is already closed.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 14:40

Iran's Floating Oil Stockpile Jumps 65% As U.S. Naval Blockade Bites

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

The volumes of Iranian oil stored at tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz have jumped in recent weeks as Iran considers ways to circumvent the U.S. blockade in the Gulf of Oman aimed at choking Iranian oil exports.

The number of tankers laden with crude but sitting in the Persian Gulf and near the Strait of Hormuz has jumped since the U.S. initiated in the middle of April a naval blockade to prevent Iranian oil exports and force Tehran into a deal, a Financial Times analysis of shipping and satellite imagery data showed on Tuesday.

Data from the U.S.-based non-profit United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) showed that the number of tankers in the Gulf laden with Iranian crude and petrochemicals has now jumped to 49, up from 29 before the U.S. blockade began on April 13.

Separately, UANI and FT have identified more than a dozen tankers clustered near the Iranian port Chabahar outside the Strait of Hormuz but within the line of the U.S. blockade.

Ship-tracking and maritime intelligence analyses pointed three weeks ago that Iranian tankers laden with oil were loitering in a cluster near the port of Chabahar. The cluster signals that Iran continues to load oil on Iranian tankers that are trying to leave the Middle East region. On the other hand, the piling up of ships outside the Strait of Hormuz but inside the U.S. blockade line suggests that the American interception of vessels is working.

Tanker Tally at Iran’s Kharg Island Hits Post-Blockade Peak: BBG

Running out of tankers to store oil.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 18, 2026

About 42 million barrels of Iranian crude are now sitting on Iranian tankers, many of these old vessels, in the Middle East, a 65% surge compared to the beginning of the war, per Kpler estimates cited by FT.

Loadings at Kharg Island, Iran’s key export port, have come to a standstill, maritime intelligence firm Windward said in a report last week.

“At the same time, dark tanker concentrations across northern Hormuz, eastern Hormuz, and Chabahar indicate that Iran is increasingly relying on protected holding zones to buffer export capacity and manage outbound flows,” Windward’s analysts said.

“Persistent ship-to-ship transfer activity, bunkering operations, and prolonged dark anchorage behavior reinforce indications that covert cargo-transfer and sanctions evasion operations are expanding inside Iranian territorial waters.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 14:20

Shooters And Motives Revealed In San Diego Mosque Shooting That Killed Three

The two young alleged gunmen who descended upon a San Diego Islamic facility on Monday -- killing three men and themselves -- have been identified, along with early indications of their motives. Police sources have told multiple outlets that 17-year-old Cain Clark and 18-year-old Caleb Velasquez -- driven by hate -- scrawled racist themes on their weapons and carried a gas can emblazoned with a Nazi SS sticker. One of them left a suicide note emphasizing "racial pride." 

While school-wrestler Cain Clark's appearance has left some wondering, there's been no reporting of any non-standard gender identity

The attack was carried out on the Islamic Center of San Diego, which is roughly eight miles north of downtown and is home to the county's largest mosque, and Bright Horizon Academy, a K-12 Islamic school. While the shooting began around 11:40 am, one of the shooter's mothers contacted police at 9:42 am. She told them her son was missing, that he was suicidal, and that her firearms and her car were gone. She also reported that he was with a companion, both of them dressed in camouflage clothing. Police tried to track them down using license plate readers, at one point responding to a possible matching plate near a shopping mall. Other officers were dispatched to a high school that one of the alleged shooters attended. 

Police say that, after leaving the Islamic center, the alleged young murderers fired shots at a landscaper two blocks away, with one of the rounds grazing his helmet. He wasn't wounded. Soon after, the two were found dead inside a white BMW another block away from the Islamic center, having apparently died of self-inflicted gunshots. Inside the vehicle, investigators found some type of anti-Islamic writing. In addition, the BMW contained a gasoline can that had a Nazi SS sticker on it, and police say unspecified "hate speech" was written on their firearms. They haven't described the weapons yet.  

The body of one of the shooters lies to the left of the BMW, and a gas can adorned with a Nazi SS symbol sits nearby.  

Clark wrestled for Madison High School, which is only a mile from the Islamic center, but never attended there in person, instead enrolling in the San Diego Unified School District's iHigh Virtual Academy.  He was set to graduate this month. Outside their home, Clark's grandparents told CNN that he had been "a good kid," with the incident leaving them shocked. "We're trying to process this," they said, adding that they were "very sorry for what happened." No biographical details about Velasquez have emerged yet; nor have any photos of him been shared by reliable sources. 

Police have thus far refused to share specifics about the hate speech associated with the slogans on the weapons, the writing in the car and the suicide note. "There was definitely hate rhetoric that was involved," Wah said at a press conference, suggesting that more information may be revealed later. "There was generalized hate rhetoric and speech," but no specific threat to "any facility or any place." 

Police haven't identified the shooters' weapons, but maybe our ZeroHedge commenters can crowd-source a partial answer from this image (Anadolu via Getty Images)

One of three dead men was security guard Amin Abdullah, who's being credited with curtailing the carnage. "I think it’s fair to say his actions were heroic," San Diego Police Chief Scott Wahl told reporters. "Undoubtedly, he saved lives today." He was a father of eight children. An online fundraiser rapidly raised more than $1.2 million and counting. 

Security guard Amin Abdullah was killed, but police credited him with minimizing the casualties (via LaunchGood)

"My community is mourning," said Taha Hassane, the director an imam of the Islamic center. "The religious intolerance and the hate that unfortunately exists in our nation is unprecedented."

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 14:10

Iran Now Has More Incentive To Resist US Demands, Even If War Restarts: Israeli Think Tank

At this point even hawkish Israeli think tank pundits are increasingly admitting that Iran currently has certain leverage and an edge when it comes to dealing with the United States, and the so far stalled and failed peace talks to end the war.

President Trump has just described that he called off planned renewed airstrikes on Iran, at the request of Gulf allies - who claim efforts toward getting back to the table and reaching a deal are close, despite that Iran's position on its nuclear program has not budged. 

Shutterstock/US Navy

When the White House first initiated Operation Epic Fury, it was hyped as presenting the opportunity for a clean tactical victory likely to result in swift regime change (Venezuela-style); however, it has officially morphed into yet another classic, grinding Washington Mideast dilemma - just as critics loudly warned would happen.

President Trump now finds himself boxed into a high-stakes corner with no easy exit ramp in sight - he can appear 'weak' through inaction, or pursue escalation and potential quagmire with likely disastrous economic and political consequences at home. In such situations each new and 'next' military action which gets presented as a 'way forward' actually often serves to make a conflict more unpredictable, sinking the US into a deeper escalation trap.

And now enter aforementioned Israeli think tank hawks. Raz Zimmt, the Director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis program at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), has pointed out that Trump's pull-back from 'planned' new airstrikes will leave Tehran leaders with some clear conclusions. It should be remembered that the INSS, which is affiliated with Tel Aviv University, is Israel's most premier defense establishment think tank.

"Whether or not it was indeed requested to do so by the rulers of the Gulf states, Tehran draws two main conclusions this morning from the president's statement," Zimmt, whose work is often promoted by Axios Barak Ravid, began in a thread on X (machine translated).

Here's how the Israel-based pundit lays it out (emphasis ZH):

A. It has once again been proven that Trump is not interested in war. From Tehran's perspective, this does not mean there will be no war, and therefore it is preparing for a resumption of hostilities. However, this strengthens its perception that the fear in the US and the Gulf of the consequences of renewing the campaign outweighs the fear in Iran.

B. It is impossible (and this too, of course, is not a new insight in Tehran) to rely on any word coming from Trump's mouth or keyboard in his endless frenzy. Therefore, not only must it refrain from agreeing to concessions that amount to capitulation to US demands—for example, forgoing nuclear capabilities, such as enrichment infrastructure, and not just the products of the program, such as uranium enriched to 60%—but it must continue to insist, already in the first stage, on security and economic guarantees: a complete end to the war, easing of sanctions or unfreezing of frozen Iranian assets, and management arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz that express recognition of Iran's control over the strait. And the problem is that it is doubtful whether this perception will change even in a scenario of renewed hostilities, unless a way is found to incorporate within its framework an action or actions that succeed in denying or significantly weakening one of the two cards in Iran's hand: control of Hormuz and the nuclear assets.

President Trump on Monday actually said "hopefully, maybe forever" when asked about the decision to delay the Iran attack. This was certainly not missed in Tehran.

A Trump-Iran pattern?

• Wed: Iran wants a deal. They called us
• Thu: We are looking at proposals
• Fri: We might be close. Very close
• Sat.: Iran knows what to do
• Sun: OBLITERATION. TOTAL. COMPLETE. They have 24 hrs.
• Mon. : The storm is coming
• Tue.: I’m giving it…

— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) May 18, 2026

Meanwhile, as of Tuesday Reuters is reporting that the five key elements of Iran's new proposal to the US to end the war include the following:

• US troops leaving areas close to Iran
• The US paying war reparations
• Lifting sanctions on Iran
• Release Iran's frozen assets
• Ending the US blockade

And so both sides continue to insist on not moving away from their initial demands and conditions, with barely any compromise visible, in a perpetuation of the zero sum game and standoff, also as the Hormuz Strait continues to be de facto blocked to the vast majority of maritime transit.

*  *  *

Latest Tuesday developments via Newsquawk...

• US President Trump posted on Truth that he instructed Secretary of War Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Caine and the US military to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for Tuesday after Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar requested him to do so, as serious talks are now taking place. Trump added that in their opinion, a deal will be made that is very acceptable to the US and the Middle East, while a deal will include no nuclear weapons for Iran, but he also instructed the US to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran on a moment's notice, in the event an acceptable deal is not reached.
• US President Trump said 'hopefully, maybe forever' regarding the decision to delay the Iran attack, while he added that they will probably be satisfied if they can make a deal where Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon. Trump also stated that countries requested to put off the attack on Iran briefly and asked if an attack on Iran could be delayed 2-3 days.
• US President Trump told The Post on Monday that he is “not open” to any concessions for Tehran after receiving the latest disappointing Iranian response on peace deal talks, while he said Iran knows “what’s going to be happening soon.”
• US State Department spokesperson said President Trump prefers the diplomatic path and has kept this door open from the start, according to Al Jazeera.
• Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and US forces exiting areas close to Iran are also included in the proposal.
• Iranian Parliament spokesperson said Tehran is working on a legal framework for managing the Strait of Hormuz, Al Araby reported.
• US officials told the NYT that Iran has taken advantage of the ceasefire to re-expose dozens of bombed ballistic missile sites, move mobile missile launchers, and adjust its tactics in anticipation of a possible resumption of attacks, according to Amichai Stein.
• Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters commander warned the US and its allies against strategic mistakes, while he said Iran's forces have become ready and will respond quickly and firmly to any new aggression from the enemies.
• Iranian Supreme Leader's military advisor Rezaei said the iron fist of Iran's armed forces and nation will force America to retreat and surrender.
• Israeli media said the main reason US President Trump postponed attacks on Iran is the Pentagon's warning that Iran is strengthening its air defenses, while senior Pentagon officials warned that Iran is enhancing its warplane detection capabilities and bolstering its air defences, according to Al Mayadeen. It was also reported that air defences were activated in Isfahan, according to Mehr News.
• Unknown explosions last night in Bab al-Mandeb Strait halted vessel traffic for two hours, Far News reported. Sources cited note of "unusual silence" from global maritime and insurance authorities.
• Israeli drone strike was reported in Al-Qarara, Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip. It was separately reported that Hezbollah announced it attacked Israeli soldiers in the town of Rashaf, southern Lebanon with drones, while the Israeli army issued an evacuation warning for a building in the city of Tyre, southern Lebanon.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 13:20

New York Governor Signs Bills To Preserve Mandatory Vaccines

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has signed legislation to preserve vaccine requirements for children.

Hochul, on May 15, signed two bills that decouple New York’s vaccine requirements from the federal government, after the Trump administration rolled back recommendations for hepatitis B and other vaccines.

“When public health comes under attack by an anti-science administration, New York fights back,” Hochul, a Democrat, said in a statement.

She added that the legislation “protects access to lifesaving vaccines for New Yorkers of all ages.”

One bill, Assembly Bill 10711, removes language about vaccines needing to be approved by federal regulators. Instead, it says that children must receive vaccines against measles, hepatitis B, and other diseases “in accordance with regulations issued by the commissioner of health of New York.”

Assembly Bill 10710, the other piece of legislation, requires health insurers to cover vaccines recommended by New York’s health commissioner, even if the shots are not recommended by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

New York has, in the past, only mandated vaccines approved and recommended by federal health agencies.

“Vaccines remain one of the greatest public health tools in history, protecting individuals, families, and entire communities from serious and preventable diseases,” New York Health Commissioner Dr. James McDonald said in a statement.

“At a time when misinformation is undermining confidence in science, this legislation reinforces New York State’s commitment to following trusted medical guidance and keeping New Yorkers healthy.”

The Trump administration has narrowed its recommendations for vaccines against several diseases, including COVID-19, hepatitis B, and rotavirus.

The biggest changes came after President Donald Trump issued an order directing officials to review recommendations from other countries and update U.S. recommendations as appropriate in light of the results of the review.

A federal judge in mid-March blocked the updates, concluding that officials did not follow proper procedure when altering the vaccine recommendations.

The Trump administration has appealed.

New York Democratic lawmakers who authored or voted for the bills Hochul signed hailed the development.

“In an era where federal health officials are undermining scientific integrity and sowing skepticism about lifesaving vaccines, New York is making the conscious choice to champion our medical professionals and reaffirm this state’s commitment to the evidence-based practices that have safeguarded communities for generations,” New York Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins said in a statement.

Children’s Health Defense, an organization founded by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., was among the groups that opposed the legislation.

Michael Kane, director of advocacy for Children’s Health Defense, told The Epoch Times previously that one of the bills would enable the state to require experimental vaccines, as it removed language stating that vaccines needed federal approval.

“It would also allow for foreign entities to determine what vaccines our children must take,” Kane said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 13:00

Flatbed Truck Rates Hit New Highs As These Drivers Fuel Boom

Flatbed trucking conditions have never looked stronger, with spot rates surging to record highs amid a mix of tightening capacity and rising industrial freight demand.

"Flatbed trucking rates have hit a new all-time high as industrial demand and a crackdown on bad actors continue to shape trucking economics," said FreightWaves founder Craig Fuller.

Fuller added, "It is a great time to be a compliant trucker in America."

There are two drivers behind why U.S. flatbed spot trucking rates (via SONAR Flatbed Truckload Index) have surged to $4.21 per mile, well above the index’s $2.87 average and to record highs:

• Data center and AI infrastructure boom, which is driving higher volumes of steel, transformers, generators, construction materials, and other open-deck freight;

• And the crackdown on foreign truck drivers, which is shrinking the available labor pool and tightening capacity further, is creating a more favorable pricing backdrop for American owner-operators.

Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that freight brokers now face state-law negligent hiring claims when they hire unsafe trucking firms that later cause crashes. This came after a series of deadly crashes nationwide, with some of these drivers being illegal aliens who were unable to read English.

BREAKING: 3 kiIIed in California by an illegal alien truck driver, Jashanpreet Singh. Singh entered in 2022, was released by Biden.

pic.twitter.com/csrKmjTRsD

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) October 23, 2025

There are reports that freight brokers are no longer hiring foreign truck drivers.

It took less than 24 hours for brokers to tighten the belt after the Supreme Court ruled that brokers could be held liable for carrier accidents WOW!

#Truckers #trucking #truckinglife @topfans pic.twitter.com/MEnvzcKkar

— GRANDPA’s FREE ADVICE (@GOP_is_Gutless) May 16, 2026

The combination of surging industrial demand and the reduction in foreign drivers is finally driving higher rates after mom-and-pop American truckers endured years of overcapacity that pushed rates to nearly unaffordable levels.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 12:40

US Dept Of War Suspends Permanent Joint Board On Defense With Canada

Authored by 'sundance' via The Last Refuge,

Remarkably, many news articles are citing confusion in trying to understand why U.S. Undersecretary of War, Elbridge Colby, announced the suspension of U.S. participation in the Permanent Joint Board on Defense with Canada.

However, the announcement comes immediately after his meeting with U.S. ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, at the Pentagon and the comment, “we’re working closely to ensure every NATO partner, including Canada, reaches the Hague Summit’s 3.5% GDP defense spending target, a vital investment for North American and Arctic defense.”

The issue, as outlined by Undersecretary Colby, centers around Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent statements in antagonism toward the U.S., a public announcement that Canada would not be purchasing U.S. military equipment and the biggest issue of all, that Canada is not living up to the NATO defense spending agreements.

It was in December of 2024, immediately after the November election where Donald Trump won, when then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flew to Mar-a-Lago for dinner with President Trump and told him there’s no way that Canada could meet their NATO obligations. 

Canada had relied on the USA to provide all national defense and was 16th in defense spending at 1.1% of GDP. {CITATION}

The issue of NATO compliance was part of a larger discussion around trade imbalances, non-tariff barriers, intellectual property conflicts and legislative hurdles that Canada used as a crutch to retain economic benefit without reciprocity.

Trudeau was arguing that Canada could not change all the points of conflict, drop their non-tariff barriers, comply with NATO demands and simultaneously get into total alignment with the USMCA trade compact (CUSMA to Canada), because their climate policies did not support or match the heavy industrial processing capabilities of both the United States and Mexico.

This triggered President Trump to respond with the 51st state, notation. 

Essentially, if you cannot be a partner with equal capabilities; and if you need to retain structural economic dependency; then Canada should just become a 51st state of the USA.

Since that time, things went downhill quickly.  Instead of trying to find ways to eliminate points of conflict, Prime Minister Mark Carney began a campaign of aggressive anti-Trump narrative distribution in order to maximize domestic political benefits.

President Trump then turned toward Mexico and began working with USTR Jamieson Greer to construct what is essentially a bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and Mexico.

The administration began ignoring Canada, planning instead to announce the upcoming dissolution of the USMCA and then force Canada to negotiate a bilateral.  A jilted Canada then began doubling and tripling down on the anti-Trumpism, with Carney saying the era of trade between the USA and Canada is over.

Carney then reached out to Europe and China for trade replacement value and began making announcements about no longer purchasing U.S. manufactured fighter jets and military hardware.

U.S. Undersecretary of War, Elbridge Colby meets with U.S. Ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, and obviously the NATO stuff is just the straw that ended the U.S. participation in the Permanent Joint Board on Defense with Canada.  Not a complicated timeline to figure out.

WASHINGTON – […] “A strong Canada that prioritizes hard power over rhetoric benefits us all,” Colby said.

“Unfortunately, Canada has failed to make credible progress on its defense commitments. DoW is pausing the Permanent Joint Board on Defense to reassess how this forum benefits shared North American defense.

“We can no longer avoid the gaps between rhetoric and reality. Real powers must sustain our rhetoric with shared defense and security responsibilities,” he continued. “Delivering on shared continental defense begins by recognizing our shared geography. Only by investing in our own defense capabilities will Americans and Canadians be safe, secure, and prosperous.”

It’s unclear why Colby made the announcement on Monday, given that Carney’s Davos speech was months ago.

Minutes before the announcement, Colby posted a photograph of himself meeting with the U.S. ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, at the Pentagon, though he did not specify when the meeting took place.

“We’re working closely to ensure every NATO partner, including Canada, reaches the Hague Summit’s 3.5% GDP defense spending target, a vital investment for North American and Arctic defense,” he wrote along with the photo. 

Carney’s relationship with President Donald Trump has fractured in recent months over several different issues, including the former’s address at Davos. (read more)

Every trade and economic associated agency within the Trump administration is in alignment, and the elimination of the USMCA with Canada is clearly at the end of this path. 

However, if you can find one in one-hundred Canadians who understand or accept this destination, I would be surprised. 

A mass formation psychosis has fallen upon the land of Canada, and the overwhelming majority of Canadians just repeat, “Trump bad.” 

It’s weird.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 12:20

Nickel Jumps As Indonesian Output Cut Stokes Supply Fears

Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange surged as much as 2.6% to $19,050 a ton after Shanghai Metals Market said upwards of 15% of high-grade nickel pig iron capacity at Indonesia's Weda Bay Industrial Park will undergo rotational maintenance in the coming months, according to Bloomberg.

Indonesia's Weda Bay Industrial Park is one of the most important nickel-processing hubs in the world and serves a large cluster of smelters that produce nickel pig iron, a key input for stainless steel production.

Indonesia dominates global nickel supply, producing 2.6 million metric tons of nickel in 2025 out of a global total of 3.9 million tons, accounting for roughly two-thirds of global mine production.

So, the earlier news from SMM indicating a 10% to 15% reduction in NPI output from Weda Bay Industrial Park in the coming months, building on existing NPI reductions in March and April due to lower ore supplies and high costs, has easily sparked supply concerns on the LME ...

Nickel is extremely valuable and a critical industrial metal in the era of electrification and data center buildouts:

• Stainless steel, by far the largest demand center, where nickel improves corrosion resistance, strength, and heat tolerance.

• EV and energy-storage batteries, especially nickel-rich lithium-ion chemistries that increase energy density and driving range.

• Aerospace and military superalloys, including jet-engine turbine blades and high-temperature gas turbines.

• Industrial alloys, plating, and catalysts, used across machinery, chemicals, and corrosion-resistant equipment.

Let's not forget that sulfuric acid prices have surged amid the Hormuz disruption. This industrial chemical is used in nickel production, especially in Indonesia's battery-grade nickel supply chain.

The line in the sand for LME nickel futures is $20,000.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 12:05

Supreme Court Directs Lower Courts To Reexamine Decisions In Voting Rights Act Cases

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Supreme Court on May 18 ordered lower courts to reconsider rulings in two redistricting cases that concern whether private individuals may sue to enforce a federal law that bans discriminatory voting practices.

The court directed the lower courts to take another look at the cases from Mississippi and North Dakota in light of its recent landmark ruling limiting the use of race in redistricting efforts.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson dissented from both new rulings.

In Louisiana v. Callais, a majority of the court had said April 29 that race may not be the predominant, overriding reason for how congressional district lines are drawn. The case focused on the Pelican State’s decision to add a majority-black district after a lower court said omitting the district would violate the Section 2 nondiscrimination provisions of the federal Voting Rights Act.

On Monday, the nation’s highest court summarily disposed of the two cases, State Board of Election Commissioners v. Mississippi State Conference of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP), and Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Indians v. Howe, in unsigned orders. The court did not explain its decisions.

Lawyers call this process, which disposes of cases without holding an oral argument, GVR, which stands for grant, vacate, and remand.

The Supreme Court follows this procedure when it wants lower courts to reconsider their rulings using a new legal framework from a recent decision without delving deeply into the specifics of the cases.

North Dakota

In the North Dakota case, the Turtle Mountain Band, the Spirit Lake Tribe, and three Native American voters sued the state’s secretary of state after the state legislature redrew the boundaries of state legislative districts in 2021. The move took the number of majority-Indian districts in the northeastern section of the state from three down to one, and this, the tribes’ petition argued, constituted illegal dilution of Indian voting power.

They filed what’s called a private enforcement lawsuit against the secretary of state to enforce Section 2. They brought their legal action under 42 U.S.C. Section 1983, a federal law that allows individuals to sue the government for civil rights violations.

Secretary of State Michael Howe urged the federal district court to dismiss the case, arguing that there was no implied right of action allowing enforcement of Section 2. The court did not rule on the issue because the plaintiffs also pleaded their case under Section 1983, which the court found yielded a cause of action to enforce Section 2. A cause of action is a set of facts that provides a legal basis for suing someone, the petition said.

The district court ruled in favor of the plaintiffs, finding that Section 2 created individual rights and that nothing in the section’s enforcement provisions was “incompatible with private enforcement.”

Howe appealed, and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit found for the state and reversed the district court. The appeals court found that Section 2 does not make provisions for an implied private right of action, and that private plaintiffs may not “instead maintain a private right of action for alleged violations of [Section] 2 through 42 U.S.C. [Section] 1983.”

In his brief, Howe urged the Supreme Court to reject the case, arguing that the Eighth Circuit ruled correctly.

Section 2 “did not unambiguously create an individual right against collective vote dilution,” and the section’s prohibition against dilution is not privately enforceable under Section 1983, he said.

The tribes said in their petition that the Eighth Circuit erred in finding that Section 2 was not privately enforceable and urged the Supreme Court to grant their petition.

The Supreme Court held in Morse v. Republican Party of Virginia (1996) that Section 2 and other sections of the Voting Rights Act are privately enforceable, the petition said.

Mississippi

In the Mississippi case, the NAACP challenged a map for state legislative districts drawn by the Mississippi Legislature after the 2020 census, the NAACP said in its brief.

The group argued that some of the new districts in the 2022 redistricting plan violated Section 2 and the U.S. Constitution, by cracking “large, cohesive Black populations.” Cracking is drawing districts that divide a population or constituency across several districts.

The NAACP argued that four Senate districts and three House districts violated Section 2. The plaintiffs cited Section 1983 and the implied right of action under Section 2 as bolstering their right to privately enforce Section 2, the brief said.

A district court panel of three Mississippi federal judges ruled that the redistricting plan violated Section 2. The court gave the legislature an opportunity to fix its legislative map and ordered special elections in specific districts.

The state said in its brief, which asked the Supreme Court not to take up the case, that the panel erred when it found that the private parties in the case may sue to enforce section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.

That issue regarding private enforcement action is “unsettled and profoundly important” and has divided the regional courts of appeals. Section 2 does not, in “clear and unambiguous” terms, create a federal right to enforce the law under either an implied right of action or Section 1983.

The NAACP urged the Supreme Court to affirm the panel’s ruling.

Jackson’s Dissent

Jackson wrote a nearly identical dissent to both Supreme Court rulings.

“This case presents only the question of Section 2’s private enforceability, which our decision in Louisiana v. Callais ... did not address,“ she said. ”Thus I see no basis for vacating the lower court’s judgment.”

Citing the Morse precedent from 1996, Jackson said she would affirm the lower court’s ruling in the Mississippi case, and reverse the lower court’s ruling in the North Dakota case.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 11:45