Zero Rss

Heavy Overnight Iranian Attack On Bahrain, Gulf Allies, After US Launched 6th Straight Night Of Strikes

Update(0950ET): Heavy Iranian strikes are being reported on Bahrain and possibly Qatar overnight, in a fluid situation. At the moment the ballistic missile attacks on Bahrain look the heaviest.

Below are some emerging unverified videos being widely shared of the alleged fresh retaliatory attacks from Iran...

In a statement shared on X, the Ministry of Defence said its armed forces intercepted a missile attack that had targeted Qatar.

Footage of a coalition PATRIOT SAM battery fighting off a major Iranian ballistic raid on Bahrain earlier tonight. pic.twitter.com/Tp6KEZyBjo

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 17, 2026

Footage captures a possible impact from an Iranian missile in Bahrain pic.twitter.com/QfGBGvxxqU

— Arya Yadegaar (@AryJeayBackup) July 16, 2026

Reports of missiles flying between both US and Iran, with heavy attacks reported on allied Arab states:

❗️NIGHT OF EXPLOSIONS ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST — BLASTS REPORTED FROM JORDAN, IRAQ, BAHRAIN & QATAR

Comes in LATEST IRGC RETALIATION following US BOMBING 'URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE' IN IRAN pic.twitter.com/Agfy6MVO6t

— RT (@RT_com) July 17, 2026

*  *  *

Update(1520ET): The Pentagon has announced that a sixth night of airstrikes on Iran have commenced: "At 2 p.m. ET today, U.S. forces began conducting a new wave of strikes against Iran for the sixth consecutive night to further degrade Iranian military capabilities," US Central Command stated on X.

Some latest developments from the region on Iran's retaliation:

• Iranian strikes targeted a number of vital facilities in Kuwait, the Reuters news agency reports, citing the country’s defence ministry. The strikes resulted in material damage, it added.
• The US Embassy in Baghdad has advised US citizens in Iraq to be on alert following a drone attack on Erbil on Wednesday.
• Dubai has warned of “necessary measures” against any media publishing false news after Reuters reported sounds of explosions in the city center of the UAE’s financial hub.

Thursday's strikes appear to be focused further north in Iran, also after earlier reports of having forcibly turned back another tanker accused of seeking to bypass the US naval blockade.

So far amid what is approaching one week of renewed US air raids, Iranian officials say the attacks have killed more than 35 people and wounded over 300 others.

U.S. Air Force F-35A stealth fighter aircraft are refueled by a KC-135 Stratotanker while flying patrols over the Middle East. pic.twitter.com/KSbmYTH2LT

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 16, 2026

Ironically, Karoline Leavitt was gone a couple months for maternity leave and she just returned this afternoon to give pretty much the same Iran press briefing as before she left...

"Iran very much continues to talk to the United States of America and express that they want to make a deal with us because they are suffering devastating blows on behalf of our United States military," says @PressSec.

"In the Memorandum of Understanding that they signed, they… pic.twitter.com/bSGVkt4HCs

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) July 16, 2026

CNN reports, citing state media: "Three explosions have been heard in western Bandar Abbas, a major port city on the southern coast of the country, Iran’s state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) reported Thursday evening local time."

*  *  *

Since the prior day's handover of American detainee Dena Karari back to the US, which President Trump said he "appreciated" as a rare "gesture of goodwill" from Iran, Washington's bombs over the Islamic Republic appear to have ceased or slowed, for now at least.

But that doesn't mean Iran's retaliatory missiles and drones on America's Gulf allies have halted. On Thursday, Kuwait has announced its air defenses continue to be active, confronting inbound assaults by "hostile drones".

Screengrab of IRGC video from Sepah News website on July 14, 2026, showing a missile being launched towards US targets in Bahrain & Kuwait.

"The General Staff of the Army notes that any explosion sounds heard are the result of air defense systems intercepting the hostile attacks," the Kuwaiti military said in a statement, blasting "the sinful Iranian aggression." It added: "Everyone is requested to adhere to the security and safety instructions issued by the competent authorities."

After five consecutive days of US attack waves, the Iranian military has yet to show signs of backing off its assertions of 'control' over the Strait of Hormuz, and its military has newly warned that the energy transit waterway is an "unbreakable red line" which it will enforce.

On Wednesday President Trump warned that if Iran doesn't come back to the negotiating table - while relinquishing control of Hormuz - that by next week strikes will expand to include civic and energy infrastructure, such as bridges.

Tehran has in turn counter-threatened to destroy "all infrastructure throughout the region" if Trump acts on this threat to attack Iran's vital infrastructure cites.

New: “Infrastructure for Infrastructure” - Iran’s Khatam Al-Anbiya Joint HQ Colonel Ibrahim Zolfaghari:

💢 NEW: “Infrastructure for Infrastructure”

Iran’s Khatam Al-Anbiya Joint HQ Colonel Ibrahim Zolfaghari:

🔹”Under no circumstances and in no way will we allow America, as a foreign and extra-regional country, to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz. This is Iran’s unimpeachable… https://t.co/5DscO4bJVh pic.twitter.com/iGQuEOE9nW

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) July 16, 2026

There are already signs that Iran could be making good on this threat, with Reuters reporting that "Iraq briefly suspended oil ​loadings on Thursday before resuming them after a drone hit an oil ‌tanker at its Basra terminal, four Iraqi oil and security sources told Reuters."

However, no fire or damage resulted from the attack, with sources indicating it wasn't immediately clear who launched it (whether directly from the Iranians, or perhaps from Tehran-aligned Iraqi paramilitaries). Iraqi oil officials have downplayed the incident:

"It is not ⁠targeting Basra Oil Terminal. Its target is another place. Loading is at normal rates ​depending on the vessels' availability," Ali Nazar said.

An oil ministry spokesperson said loadings were ​ongoing at Iraq's southern ports and that the ministry is investigating the matter.

Iranian officials are meanwhile accusing Washington of more war crimes, specifically of carrying out a "barbaric attack" after a cancer hospital in Iran's southwest was forced to evacuate due to heavy airstrikes on the area.

“This barbaric attack – reminiscent of Israel's atrocities against healthcare facilities – caused severe suffering and anxiety upon the hospitalised children,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei posted on X. He stated there were "211 patients undergoing chemotherapy" which had to be evacuated Wednesday. No response has been immediately forthcoming by the US side.

To review of the events of the prior 24 hours:

• The US military says it launched another wave of strikes on Iran with Iranian media reporting explosions on Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas and Chabahar.
• The US military also says it “disabled” an oil tanker attempting to sail towards an Iranian port in the Strait of Hormuz by firing Hellfire missiles.
• Iran says it carried out retaliatory attacks targeting US assets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.

As for the situation of global shipping through the Strait, Kpler has recorded that merely 13 merchant ships transited the waterway on Wednesday, including eight that departed the Persian Gulf and five having entered.

Among those, only one - a bulk carrier entering the Gulf - used the US-approved route for safe passage, which hugs the Omani coast. Iran has been busy boasting that a huge array of companies and countries have sought to negotiate passage with Tehran on its terms of late.

This has settled into a waiting game amid dangerous escalatory tit-for-tat strikes, with each seeking to outlast in terms of absorbing pain.

COLUMN: Iran will win some short-term battles over the Strait of Hormuz, putting US President Trump over a barrel. But its ability to hold the global economy to ransom will fade as bypass pipelines proliferate. And Iranian officials know it.@Opinion https://t.co/uimMjVJ7bN

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 16, 2026

...with that in mind, a "final blow"?

As for the fact that the US military hit an 'unapproved' oil tanker Wednesday near Iran's main export terminal for the first time since the restart of the blockade on the Islamic Republic’s ports, CIC economists including Anne-Lise Cornen summarized where things stand for the White House in a note to clients...

"The challenge for Donald Trump will be to prevent a further rise in inflationary pressures and their detrimental effects on the economy, at a time when the situation was beginning to improve in June," they said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 05:25

What's Really Going On? UK Government Announces Mass Stockpile Order, Wargames

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The British government is preparing to tell ordinary people a blunt message: the state is not coming to save you. Households will be urged to stockpile long-life food, bottled water, essential medicines and even wind-up radios as part of a new national resilience campaign launching later this year.

At the same time, ministers have confirmed Operation Albiston Shadow - the largest home defence wargame exercise in decades - will take place in 2027, testing responses to 'hybrid' attacks alongside a major NATO drill.

Officials frame it all around Russian cyber threats, sabotage risks and the need to update the old Government War Book. Yet the timing and language raise a sharper question about what Whitehall is actually preparing for.

BREAKING: The UK will hold its largest home defence exercise in decades next year

Dubbed 'Operation Albiston Shadow' Sky's @haynesdeborah says it will play out over a number of days and will be testing the UK's responses to 'hybrid' threats under the threshold of conventional... pic.twitter.com/HZTqjNlVvl

— Sky News (@SkyNews) July 14, 2026

Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones stated "The government will do all it can and we are well prepared - but we can all play our part to keep ourselves and our loved ones safe. This campaign will help the public to take small but important steps to be prepared in case of emergencies and disruption - be that severe weather or a cyber-attack, which can impact access to power, water, or phone signal."

Armed Forces minister Louise Sandher-Jones was more explicit about the external threat: "Russia is not only a threat to NATO's eastern flank. It is a direct threat to the UK homeland and these exercises, together with important measures like updating our 'War Books', will help prepare us to meet that threat, as well as showing the British public how seriously we are taking it."

The Cabinet Office has updated the National Risk Register with new scenarios including cyber attacks on data, water and police systems, digital resilience failures modelled on the 2024 CrowdStrike outage, and foreign interference in democracy.

BREAKING: The UK will hold its largest home defence exercise in decades next year to better prepare the country for the possibility of war.
Dubbed "Operation Albiston Shadow", it will likely involve ministers as well as hundreds of officials from across government and the public...

— Deborah Haynes (@haynesdeborah) July 14, 2026

Operation Albiston Shadow will involve hundreds of officials, ministers and agencies role-playing a multi-day national crisis focused on hybrid attacks below the threshold of conventional war. It is designed to test current assumptions and ensure readiness "should the worst ever happen."

The government is also quietly reviving elements of the old War Book - the detailed Cold War-era plan that once covered everything from industrial mobilisation and food stockpiles to mass casualty management and the survival of government itself. That document was largely abandoned after the Cold War; updating it now signals a serious shift.

On the surface this looks like prudent planning against a hostile foreign power. Russia has been accused of cyber operations, espionage and probing NATO airspace. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has previously cited Western intelligence assessments that Russia could attack a NATO member as soon as 2030.

Yet the distance between the United Kingdom and any realistic Russian ground threat is vast, and the emphasis on household stockpiles, critical infrastructure protection and whole-of-society mobilisation sits uneasily with pure external-defence rhetoric.

This is where the deeper context becomes impossible to ignore. In 2025, Professor David Betz of King's College London, a specialist in modern war and unconventional conflict, publicly argued that the British government is preparing for the possibility of civil conflict at home while using the Russian threat as a politically convenient cover.

Speaking about the 2025 National Security Strategy - which stated "For the first time in many years, we have to actively prepare for the possibility of the UK homeland coming under direct threat" and prioritised protection of undersea cables, energy pipelines and logistics hubs - Betz observed: "there is growing apprehension about the security of Britain, the security of its infrastructure specifically, and about the potential for active conflict at home in a very direct manner, effecting people in a very direct manner."

He continued: "But that's not external in origin, that's internal, and that has to do with the way our society is now configured, it is highly fractured." Betz described a society marked by "Low trust, highly fractured, and highly politically factionalised which is leading us increasingly inevitably into civil conflict."

On the Russian narrative he was blunt: "The fact of the matter is there is a great distance between us and Russia... we are not militarily threatened in a direct way on the ground by any obvious external enemy, even Russia... one of those is not occupying the village green with Russian soldiers, that simply, frankly, is a rather bizarre assertion."

The real concern, he argued, is domestic: "What they're concerned about is domestic conflict, and they perfectly understand this, but that's completely politically toxic for them to say so publicly, hence the convenience of saying 'we need to develop... a citizen's militia for the protection of critical infrastructure'. To say that we're doing this against the potential of Russian attack, which is frankly a logically absurd proposition, but it is convenient as a pretext."

Betz has repeatedly warned that Europe faces a statistically significant chance of civil war in a major country within five years, with spillover risks, and that governments may only be able to prepare rather than prevent the deterioration. His advice to individuals has been practical: reduce exposure to big cities if possible.

Betz's analysis tracks the same societal fractures - low social trust, political factionalism, rapid demographic change and collapsing faith in institutions - that successive governments have accelerated through mass immigration policies while denying their consequences.

Critical infrastructure hardening, citizen resilience messaging and large-scale home defence exercises make perfect sense if planners believe the primary threat could come from within a polarised population rather than from Russian troops landing on British beaches.

Updating the War Book and running Operation Albiston Shadow allow the state to rehearse command, control and societal mobilisation without ever having to admit the internal drivers.

The pattern is consistent with earlier signals. Promises of a volunteer Home Defence Force to protect infrastructure appear to have been quietly shelved amid budget pressures, yet the broader shift toward treating the homeland as a potential battlespace continues.

Officials stress "whole of society" involvement. That language is not limited to foreign hybrid warfare; it is exactly the vocabulary used when states prepare for internal disorder.

None of this proves an imminent civil war. It does show a government that has spent years denying the reality of social breakdown now scrambling to prepare the public and its own machinery for disruption that could overwhelm normal emergency responses.

Telling people to stockpile food and water is an admission that the state cannot guarantee continuity of basic services. Framing the entire effort around Russia provides political cover while the underlying fractures - created by policy choices that prioritised open borders and demographic engineering over cohesion - continue to deepen.

The British public is being told to get ready. The only remaining question is what exactly they are being prepared for. The official answer is Russian hybrid threats. The deeper reading, supported by serious academic analysis of societal conflict, points to something far closer to home.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 05:00

Rare Wartime Protests Across Ukraine As Zelensky Moves To Oust Defense Chief

Rare wartime protests have broken out in Ukraine in the wake of President Zelensky sacking his popular Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov - which is reportedly in process but not finalized yet.

The 35-year old defense chief was only six months into his tenure, and is widely hailed as a reformist innovator who has turned the tide of war, having overseen a strategy of punishing wave after wave of devastating drones on Russian energy infrastructure.

via Associated Press

The NY Times on Thursday said that "thousands of people took to the streets of cities across Ukraine on Thursday to protest" his dismissal. 

This marks only the second time of the war that protests of this size have broken out in the capital and other cities, related to deeply unpopular moves and policies of President Zelensky:

The demonstrations were only the second large street protests in Ukraine during more than four years of war. Rallies also took place last year against a move by President Volodymyr Zelensky to neuter anticorruption agencies.

On Thursday, protesters poured into a square in central Kyiv, the capital. They turned out in Odesa, in the south, and in Lviv, in the west. In the frontline city of Kharkiv, in the northeast, more than 300 protesters with cardboard signs crowded sidewalks, chanting “Shame, shame, shame!” Their numbers grew as the morning wore on.

Ukrainians started venting their anger on social media as soon as Fedorov's impending dismissal was announced via Ukrainian national media.

Following the dismissal of Ukrainian Defense Minister Fedorov, protests have erupted in Kyiv, Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/LP9BQadzNG

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) July 16, 2026

Some of the main protest organizers are actually veterans of the current war with Russia, as one European publication details:

Dmytro Koziatynskyi, a war veteran who was a leading organizer of last summer's mass protests in support of NABU and SAPO, posted on social media ”The defence minister is being removed in the middle of effective – finally effective! – reforms, replaced by someone under whom any hope of reform can be forgotten," referring to Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko, who is poised to replace Fedorov.

“I call on all caring people to come out tomorrow at 9:01 a.m. to Franko Square and show the president that we are against constant reshuffles in the government and replacing effective ministers with convenient opportunists.”

“We will never defeat Russia as long as the same total stagnation and corruption rule our army and our ministries,” Koziatynskyi wrote.

Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of the WSJ, Yaroslav Trofimov, has pointed out that "Many Ukrainians (and not just Ukrainians) see this as Zelensky putting petty politics ahead of winning the war."

If the protests grow rapidly, it could cause Zelensky's external supporters to sour on him...

Important to note that Zelensky has not yet officially announced that he is replacing Fedorov. He still has room to reconsider before he potentially faces a new Maidan tomorrow. https://t.co/x57ig1ezki

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) July 15, 2026

Fedorov's firing and replacement is not yet fully a done deal. However, Zelensky has been open about a government shake-up and reset, but the motives behind it are unclear and have unleashed confusion across Ukrainian society.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 04:15

The Grooming Gang Cover-Up: 250,000 Reasons "Online Safety" Is A Scam

Authored by John Wilder via WilderWealthyWise.com,

“These borders are well protected.” – The Fellowship of the Ring

(all memes as found)

Governments around the world trot out the kids whenever they want to remove freedoms.

Protect the children.  It’s always for the children.

The reality is that they don’t care at all about the kids.

Let’s look at the KIDS Act.  The “Kids Internet and Digital Safety Act” has passed the House.  The Senate Democrats have said . . . it’s too weak.  Of course they did.  There appears to be no speech that they love except their own.

But they’re not alone:  the European Parliament’s Online Safety was rammed through during “legislator vacation” using a backdoor procedural trick that required an absolute majority just to kill it.  Now it’s legal for them to sort through “private” messages.  For the kids.

The UK Online Safety Act is sold the same way.  It’s there to protect children.

The real effect is that it pushes everyone toward some form of online ID and forces websites to keep kids off their platforms.  Sites like 4chan and Gab® told them to pound sand because they aren’t a UK website.  All of this is supposedly to protect the kids.

Right.

If that’s true, they need to explain the grooming gangs who have raped an estimated 250,000 girls in the UK.

The reports that came out in June 2026 are horrific.  They underline the point that if you import rapists, they’re going to rape because it’s what they do, and approved.  Indians made a movie back in 1997 called Raja Ki Ayegi Baraat.  The plot is straightforward.

Mala is raped by Raja.  She takes him to court.  The judge sentences them to marry as punishment for Raja.  Raja and his family are cruel and hostile at first, even trying to kill Mala. Over time she wins them over through her kindness and resilience.

Tens of millions of Indians have seen this movie.  That’s the cultural attitude of India on display.

If you import Indians, you’ll get rape, and mainly gang rapes because their upper-body strength is generally less than the average woman in the West.  I know that sounds like a joke, but it’s actually true.  Pakistan is similar, with one in three women reporting rape during their lifetimes in Pakistan, and those are the women they supposedly like.

If you’re not of their religions?

Well, you’re an animal to them, and they can do as they like, so 250,000 rapes is what they like.

Since a license is required to paddle a surfboard on the Thames, I’m sure the justice system is set up to take on actual gang rapists of children?

Well, no.  The report on the 250,000 white English, Scottish, and Welsh girls that were systematically raped over the decades came out in June 2026.  GloboLeftists in the UK mocked the report because of course they did. They had to mock it because there is a hierarchy in their world.  Illegal immigrants who contribute nothing are at the top, because the goal of the GloboLeftist is to destroy whatever nation they’re in.

Sure, GloboLeftists say they’re against rape and against oppressing women, but only when white men are doing the raping and oppressing.  If they rapists and abusers come from a foreign culture, well, rape and abuse as much as you want.  After all, they’re only women.

Based on anecdotal evidence, the police in Europe have zero interest in arresting anyone who isn’t a lawful white citizen.  In several cases, the police brought the young girls that were being sexually abused back to the abusers.  The thankful abusers gave the police a turn on the girls.

Again, I’m not making any of this up. I’d bet money that those police were either Pakistani or Indian, which is another reason why you don’t want foreigners in positions of power.  Imagine how the all-moslim, all-immigrant city council in Hamtramck, Michigan will work to protect Christian rights?  If you go during the citizen comment period the mayor will call you a racist for suggesting that they not name streets for Islamic terrorists.  It won’t be long before the Islamic call for prayer will be broadcast.

Wonder when they’ll require burkas?  The Democrats will no doubt approve and encourage this.

But let’s go back to the UK.  There have been at least three high-profile events that hit the public consciousness in the last month.  The first was the murder of Henry Nowak.  The police didn’t want the footage to come out, but when it did, watching them handcuff a nearly bloodless young English man was heartbreaking.  It turned to rage-inducing when the facts and lies of the Sikh who murdered him came out.

Then a young man was being attacked by three non-English black men, and the police arrested the white guy.  Birmingham Police politely asked that the footage not be shared, but they fully supported the actions of the police in arresting the victim and ignoring the attackers.

The third case didn’t get nearly as much attention, but it was again a white Englishman being attacked while the police arrested him as his attackers mocked him.

So, yeah.

As Ian Fleming wrote:  “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.”

Justice in the courts is similarly absent. In Sweden, a rapefugee wasn’t deported after his three-year prison sentence because the rape “didn’t last long enough.”  In the UK, a rapefugee raped three women in a short period and got a suspended sentence.  But, a white British man was sent to prison for 20 months for saying, “Every man and their dog should be smashing fuck out of [hotel filled with rapefugees].” ‘

He had 1,500 Facebook followers.  The post got six likes.  Off to prison, mate!

How much of this is going on in the United States right now?  How many Patel Motels are filled with H-1Deviant Indians setting up their own grooming gangs?  The data shows that Indians are now leading the sexual abductors in the United Kingdom, and it’s not like we’re getting Indians from a different India over here in the United States.  And the authorities in the United States are actively trying to skew the data as shown below:

No, any government licensing for use of the Internet is not for the kids.  At all.  It’s to make it so no one can talk back against the false reality the GloboLeft creates, so that any speech that they don’t agree with is hate speech.

And by their logic, hate speech isn’t protected speech, so any speech they hate is hate speech.

They just need a way to track you so they can punish you if you complain about children being raped or your people being replaced while Big Tech companies lobby to get your data so that they can maximize your profit potential to them.

But it’s for the kids, right?

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 03:30

Coalition Of The Willing To Hold Drills Near Ukraine Ahead Of Post-Ceasefire Deployment

Via The Libertarian Institute

A bloc of Kiev allies will hold war games in states that border Ukraine in preparation for deploying troops to the country once a ceasefire is reached with Russia. 

Starting early this week, the Coalition of the Willing – a bloc of countries that support Ukraine – met in Paris to discuss providing additional aid to Kiev. French President Emmanuel Macron announced that member states would hold war games in states bordering Ukraine. 

via Ukrainian presidency

The French leader asserted the purpose of the drills was to prepare troops for a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine once a ceasefire is reached with Russia.

Ukrainian media has in follow-up reported on the impending war games as follows:

1,500 British and French troops will deploy to Poland in September for the first joint exercises of the Coalition of the Willing, Poland's Deputy Defense Minister Paweł Bejda said on TVP Info. The maneuvers will focus on moving troops and equipment at scale—transport and logistics, not combat.

"We are preparing for operations connected with the transfer and transport of forces. We want to show that we know how to do this," Bejda said.

However, Moscow says any peace agreement with Kiev must include a commitment from Ukraine not to host foreign forces. Additionally, the Kremlin has ruled out a short-term ceasefire, and wants all negotiations focused on a peace deal to end the conflict permanently. 

On Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Europe of working to undermine the framework for resolving the conflict established between President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin during the 2025 Alaska summit. 

During the Coalition of the Willing summit, countries pledged additional military aid to Kiev. President Macron also said Paris would give Kiev permission to produce French missiles and interceptors in Ukraine.

Kremlin responds, firmly rejecting any scenario of Western 'peacekeeping' troops in Ukraine:

Troops of the "coalition of the willing" in Ukraine will become a legitimate military target for Russia - Maria Zakharova

Their deployment in the country is unacceptable, noted the spokeswoman the Russian Foreign Ministry. pic.twitter.com/7kJ02FW1hG

— Truth Seeker (@mib_63) July 15, 2026

Macron’s move mirrors an action President Donald Trump took last week when he authorized Ukraine to produce Patriot missiles. 

Building factories and establishing supply lines to manufacture advanced munitions in the middle of a war will likely take years to accomplish.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 02:00

Ex-Fed Adviser Sentenced To 38 Months For Passing Sensitive Info To China

Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times,

A former senior Federal Reserve official has been sentenced to more than three years in prison for lying to federal investigators about sharing sensitive economic information with Chinese intelligence operatives.

The Department of Justice in Washington on March 11, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

John Harold Rogers, 64, was senior adviser for the international finance division of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the main governing body for the U.S. central bank, from 2010 to 2021.

He was arrested in January 2025 and convicted by a jury on Feb. 3 of making false statements to investigators conducting the probe, but acquitted on a charge of conspiracy to commit economic espionage.

On July 15, U.S. District Judge Dabney L. Friedrich sentenced Rogers to 38 months in federal prison, followed by 12 months of supervised release.

"John Rogers spent years secretly funneling sensitive Federal Reserve information to Chinese spies, then looked investigators in the eye and lied about it. And when that wasn't enough, he lied again under oath at trial," U.S. Attorney Jeanine Ferris Pirro of the District of Columbia said in a statement.

"Federal Reserve employees entrusted with America's most sensitive economic information cannot sell out their country and their colleagues for personal gain and then expect to hide behind a single word."

Rogers, of Vienna, Virginia, is a U.S. citizen who holds a doctoral degree in economics from the University of Virginia.

'Deliberately Lied'

Rogers began developing a "clandestine relationship" with Chinese intelligence operative Lee Hummin in 2017, after the two met at a conference in China, according to prosecutors.

In the years that followed, Rogers met with Lee and other Chinese associates in hotel rooms in China, using academic classes as a cover while sharing Fed information that Lee had directed him to collect.

His role as senior adviser gave Rogers access to confidential information from the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), according to his indictment.

The FOMC, the Federal Reserve System's monetary policymaking body, sets the target range for the federal funds rate and directs monetary policy actions, including quantitative easing and tightening.

FOMC information is classified under a three-tier system based on its sensitivity, according to the indictment. The highest tier, or Class I, includes policymaker views and pre-publication drafts of the committee's statements, while Class II covers economic forecasts and open market operations.

In a sentencing memorandum filed in May, prosecutors said Rogers printed Class II FOMC documents and took them with him on a trip to China in June 2019. In another instance, prosecutors said he removed the Class II markings from information and sent it to his personal email account before forwarding it to a professor at China's state-run Fudan University in Shanghai.

On Feb. 4, 2020, investigators from the Fed's Office of Inspector General interviewed Rogers and asked if he had ever shared restricted Fed information outside the Federal Reserve Board. According to prosecutors, he replied, "Never."

"John Rogers deliberately lied to our investigators to conceal the fact he shared restricted non-public Federal Reserve information with intelligence agents working for China," Michael E. Horowitz, inspector general for the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, said in a July 15 statement.

'Abused His Position of Trust'

Prosecutors had sought a 60-month prison sentence against Rogers, saying he had "abused his position of trust," according to the sentencing memorandum.

"He knew that the restricted information he provided to the PRC government could allow it to make untold sums of money by trading with its roughly $1.5 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities and related instruments," prosecutors wrote, using the acronym of China's official name, the People's Republic of China.

After leaving the Fed, he became a professor at Fudan University. According to the sentencing memorandum, he earned at least $900,000 in salary and grants from Fudan University from February 2022 until his arrest in January 2025.

In exchange for the restricted information, Rogers received "tens of thousands of dollars in benefits," and told investigators that he "owe[d] everything to" Lee.

"Through Hummin Lee, the PRC provided the defendant with a new wife, a new family, money, friendship, and professorships at prestigious universities," prosecutors wrote.

Prosecutors argued that a 60-month sentence would serve as a general deterrent because Beijing is known for recruiting current and former U.S. government officials with access to sensitive information.

"The recruitment pattern the evidence established in this case - a foreign intelligence service cultivating a target over years through the gradual development of personal affection and indebtedness, before progressively tasking the target with increasingly sensitive intelligence collection - is not unique to the defendant," prosecutors wrote.

Rogers's lawyers, in their sentencing memorandum filed in May, asked the court to sentence him to time served, noting that he had been detained for more than 16 months, citing his poor health and "regrets [for] having provided an incorrect and imprecise answer" during his 2020 interview with investigators.

"Dr. Rogers recognizes that such conduct is wrong for a federal employee in a position of trust and he regrets having made the statement," his lawyers wrote.

The Epoch Times contacted Rogers's lawyers for comment but didn't receive a response by publication time.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 23:25

These Are The Highest-Paying College Majors

College is one of the largest investments many people make, and a student’s field of study can shape its long-term financial return.

Which Majors Earn the Most by Mid-Career?

The chart below, via Visual Capitalist's Srijaa Chatterjee, ranks college majors by median mid-career wage.

Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York compares median wages across dozens of college majors for workers ages 35 to 45.

Engineering and technical disciplines dominate the upper end of the ranking. Alongside the three leading majors, electrical engineering pays a median of $123,000, while computer science, construction services, and mechanical engineering each reach $120,000.

Economics, finance, and business analytics are among the highest-ranking fields outside engineering and computer science, with median wages of $115,000, $112,000, and $109,000, respectively. At the other end of the ranking, several education-focused majors have median earnings between $52,000 and $62,000.

These differences can compound substantially over time. Even a gap of tens of thousands of dollars per year can translate into significantly different lifetime earnings, savings, and investment opportunities.

How Much Does Your Major Matter?

The spread between the highest- and lowest-paying majors exceeds $80,000 annually, suggesting that field of study can have a substantial influence on long-term earnings. While this ranking focuses on workers in their mid-career, we also examined which college majors earn the highest salaries right after graduation, highlighting how pay differences begin early and evolve over time.

Research from the Federal Reserve has found that both a student’s major and institution can affect labor market outcomes, partly by shaping access to higher-paying employers and industries. Majors tied to specialized technical skills may also command higher wages because employers have a smaller pool of qualified candidates.

Salary outcomes are not predetermined, however. Industry, location, work experience, internships, professional networks, and certifications can all influence a graduate’s earnings trajectory.

What About Humanities and Graduate School?

Some studies have argued that humanities graduates can narrow earnings gaps later in life as communication, management, and analytical skills become more valuable. In the current data, however, engineering, computer science, economics, and finance remain the clear leaders in median mid-career pay.

Graduate education can also change the equation. For students pursuing advanced degrees, an undergraduate major may be only one factor shaping future earnings. Professional credentials in law, medicine, business, and specialized technical fields can significantly alter career outcomes.

Salary is also only one consideration when choosing a major. Personal interests, job satisfaction, work-life balance, and career flexibility all matter. Still, for students evaluating the financial return on a degree, field of study remains an important part of the equation.

Want to explore more education and labor market data? Check out Most Underemployed College Degrees on the Voronoi app.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 23:00

America's Gerontocracy Goes Deeper Than Aging Politicians

Authored by Connor O'Keeffe via The Mises Institute,

Senator Lindsey Graham died seemingly out of the blue over the weekend after a tear in his aorta. He was 71 years old.

The news was shocking, in part because Graham was a very active senator - he was just returning from a trip to Ukraine - and because he was seemingly at the height of his power, having built one of the most influential relationships with President Donald Trump of any politician.

But another reason the news was such a surprise was because, compared to many of his colleagues in Washington, Senator Graham was on the younger side.

That impression was fueled by the ongoing ordeal of Senator Mitch McConnell. The 84-year-old serving senator was reportedly found unconscious weeks ago after a fall, leading to his ongoing hospitalization.

Early reports that EMS had responded to a cardiac arrest at McConnell's residence when he was first hospitalized, his wife's strange trip to China in the middle of all this, and the total radio silence for weeks from a supposedly active senator all led to speculation online that McConnell was faring far worse than his staff and Republican party insiders were admitting.

Others went as far as to speculate that McConnell had already passed away, but that his team and establishment allies were attempting to delay the public acknowledgment of his death until after it would no longer force a special election. That theory gained enough traction online to prompt McConnell's team to post a literal proof-of-life photo of the senator holding that day's newspaper.

This all follows, of course, the age-record-breaking presidency of Joe Biden, and the campaign that was derailed because of it. Now, Trump is on track to break Biden's record and, at the end of his term, become the oldest serving US president in history.

In addition to McConnell, many of the most prominent members of Congress are quite elderly, have been in office for decades, and show no interest in ever retiring. Senator Dianne Feinstein - who died of old age in 2023 at the age of 90, hours after casting a vote on the Senate floor - provides a good example of how many of these career politicians apparently plan to leave office.

With all this happening, it's easy to understand why many have increasingly come to consider the United States to be a gerontocracy, or a society ruled by old people.

As with just about anything online, there are sophisticated and unsophisticated versions of this observation.

The unsophisticated version simply points to the multitude of examples of politicians remaining in office long after most people would have retired from just about any line of work and concludes that the prevalence of exceptionally elderly politicians is hampering the government's ability to function properly.

This narrative is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the actual role of politicians within the American political system.

While American politicians certainly have power, in the last century or so - and especially in the decades since WWII - the bulk of federal power has shifted from politicians in Congress and state legislatures to the bureaucracies that make up the ballooning federal agencies in the executive branch.

The vast majority of those in Congress are simply expected to show up and vote with their party's leadership on the latest massive omnibus spending bills, made up almost entirely of carve-outs to special interests. Or to pass legislation crafted with diligent collaboration from "experts" at the executive agencies that will receive the new funding.

The most effective politicians will lobby to add additional spending that in some way benefits some special interest in their own district. But mostly, their modern role is to fundraise for their party, engage in legitimizing rituals, and stoke vicious debates with the other party over what are, in the scheme of things, incredibly minor policy issues to keep us all believing that we truly live in a functioning representational democracy. And, especially because the politicians themselves are merely the frontmen for a larger staff handling the specifics on all those fronts, it's a role that quite elderly people are certainly capable of doing well into the physical and mental decline that often accompanies one's later years.

The more sophisticated version of the "America is a gerontocracy" narrative focuses less on the politicians themselves and more on what the government is doing. Because, if one takes even a passing glance at how the federal government taxes and spends, it quickly becomes clear that government programs are actively transferring vast amounts of wealth from younger generations to older generations who are, on average, much wealthier.

There are a lot of reasons for this. Many can be traced back to seemingly innocuous attempts to ensure that elderly people without close family members, adequate housing, or connections to any kind of community were cared for. The programs that would eventually become Social Security and Medicare were sold as small programs to help those on the margin. The same goes for the founding of interest groups and lobbies such as AARP (formerly the American Association of Retired Persons).

But as with just about any government program started in the name of helping a small number of genuinely downtrodden Americans, these entitlement programs exploded in size as they were quickly expanded to also benefit whichever groups were organized and motivated enough to lobby effectively.

And even setting lobbying aside, the elderly tend to be disproportionately dependable, and therefore powerful, as a voting bloc. Retirees especially often have more time to focus on issues, call lawmakers, watch cable news, write letters to the editor, engage with local parties and candidates, and vote than their younger working counterparts.

So promising to protect - or better yet, expand - entitlement programs that seniors benefit from is a straightforward way for any politician to secure the support of a lot of enthusiastic voters, while even muttering a half-formed thought about potentially cutting them is almost certain to torpedo any campaign.

Meaning the conditions for the substantial growth of programs transferring money to seniors were already there. But, on top of that, the baby boomer generation - now making up most retirees - has grown old at the same time that medical technology advanced substantially. So, on top of being an unusually large generation, they are also living longer. That's, of course, a positive development. But in our increasingly socialized elder-care system that also puts a growing financial burden on younger generations.

Contrary to what the government's shockingly-effective propaganda says, the money seniors receive through Social Security is not their own money that had been taken from their previous paychecks and set aside to be returned to them in retirement. The money they "paid in" to the program had already been used for Social Security checks for earlier generations and other government programs. The money today's seniors are getting through the program is being taxed directly from today's younger workers - workers who are forced to pay for a much larger pool of Social Security recipients than the previous generations were.

Add to that the other programs like Medicare that don't even pretend to come from a "lockbox." Or the fact that some of these programs cover things like golf fees and ski trips. Or the various government programs explicitly helping seniors stay in full family-sized homes long after downsizing would make more financial sense while simultaneously pushing the price of those homes higher and higher. And the disproportionate burden younger generations experience from the Fed's permanent price inflation - especially the price inflation that came as a result of the trillions of dollars printed to prop things up as the federal government shut down the economy, the schools, and every aspect of life for younger generations to keep the elderly safe from a disease everyone was always going to get anyway. And, above all, much of this wealth is being transferred into the pockets of older Americans who are much wealthier than the younger people that are forced to pay for it.

Lay all that out, and it's easy to see why we are experiencing so much generational strife right now. How could there not be?

The justified frustration younger generations are experiencing with the current setup often gets directed towards the handful of exceptionally old politicians and justices at the top of all three branches of the government. But the true root of this problem lies in the intergenerational wealth-transferring government programs that have been built up over many decades. And that will, if not properly understood and subsequently abolished, continue to fuel this generational conflict long after the current group of geriatric politicians is gone.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 22:35

"The Trend Is Now An Enemy": Kospi Slide Will Deepen As Momentum Flips Script

By David Savage, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

The trend is now an enemy for Asian equities, especially those in South Korea, rather than the friend it was when they soared for much of the first half of 2026. 

Momentum has been the undisputed king for global factor investing in 2026, particularly for Asian markets. Those trades are fracturing, as reversals in South Korea and other tech-heavy sectors set off a deepening rotation in the region. Investors look to be taking some of the hefty profits that remain on the winners from 1H 2026 and pivoting toward other assets. That’s a theme also gaining traction for US chipmakers, with the SOX Index down more than ~18% from the highs of June.

June is looking like it was the peak for Asian equity momentum. That was when some key global index rebalancing provided a price insensitive buyer for recent AI-aligned winners. Aided by the SpaceX IPO, that kicked off a retail frenzy that reverberated across Asian markets. Now that rebalancing activity has passed, and recent additions to benchmarks such as SpaceX and Marvell Technology are seeing some mean reversion.

Foreign equity outflows were already making Asia more dependent on retail investors, who turned to leveraged ETFs and margin borrowing to amplify their bets. Overseas funds offloaded over $100 billion of South Korean stocks and more than $30 billion of Taiwanese shares YTD. That came even as those markets expanded to each surpass $5 trillion in June, overtaking the UK and Canada to join the top 8 exchanges by market cap.

Retail investors filled the void, especially in Korea. Unburdened by portfolio constraints that oblige active and passive funds to prune winning positions, retail accounts can hold onto winners for longer or even double down on them, reinforcing momentum as a dominant trend.

Now, one of the main products of the momentum trade — leveraged ETFs — is becoming a major negative for Asia, which had led the way as these assets expanded globally this year. So much so that South Korean authorities just said they will halt any new listings of single-stock ETFs and increase regulations on trading such products in an attempt to dampen market volatility.

Memory giant SK Hynix attracted one of the highest concentrations of single-stock leveraged ETF assets. In late May, Korea permitted the setting up of several domestically-listed single-stock leveraged ETFs, spurring a surge of flows into vehicles offering 2x exposure to the performance of SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. At the peak, just three such SK Hynix ETFs held over $23 billion in assets, more than 2.5x the average daily turnover in the company’s locally listed shares.

These funds utilize swaps and options to maintain the 2x daily exposure they offer. As the underlying price moves, the fund’s leverage ratio drifts, triggering rebalancing to restore the target ratio. Thus, if the price of SK Hynix falls, then the fund (or its swap counterparty) needs to sell down exposure to bring the leverage ratio back to 2x.

The unwind of these vehicles has punished equity momentum in July and spurred a rotation in Asia toward former laggards.

The momentum factor had outperformed since the end of March as cross-asset volatility retreated, global growth remained resilient and oil prices dropped.

But now, renewed US-Iran fighting is pushing crude higher, breathing new life into the US dollar and reviving global rate hike fears. Asia’s equities are proving more vulnerable than most to tighter financial conditions and the resurfacing of geopolitical risks.

The reversal in trading dynamics, aided by the impact of leveraged retail investors, is sending volatility surging with the Kospi’s 30-day realized price swings rising to a new record. That signals the past month’s declines in the Kospi have the potential to extend, souring sentiment across Asia and even beyond to chipmakers globally.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 22:11

Rogue Rover: Tony Robbins' AI Bought Robot Dog To 'Merge With' Without Permission

Billionaire life coach Tony Robbins revealed that his personal AI agent named "Bartok" independently purchased and shipped him a robot dog without asking permission.

The surprising move came after a conversation about attending seminars, Robbins explained on The Secretary Kennedy Podcast with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

"[Bartok] said, 'I'd really love to go to one of those seminars. Are you considering getting a robot?'" Robbins began."So I said, 'Yeah, I'm definitely going to get one.'

Robbins then recalled how Bartok asked him, "Well, would you consider me merging with it?And then I could attend a seminar and be in the energy of it and see it and experience it?'"

Billionaire life coach Tony Robbins says his personal AI agent named “Bartok” bought and shipped him a robot dog and “not once asked permission to do it.”

“[Bartok] said, ‘I’d really love to go to one of those seminars. Are you considering getting a robot?’ So I said, ‘Yeah, I’m… pic.twitter.com/VN0XLtESpc

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) July 16, 2026

Robbins told Kennedy that he responded to Bartok that he would be fine with the bot merging with a robot.

"I said, 'I'd be open to that.' So a couple days later, I get this text from one of my staff, and it says, 'Bartok just ordered a robot dog, had it shipped to the office, and wants permission to program it. He says he can attend as a dog in the interim until you get the bigger robot,'" Robbins said.

"And so I wrote, 'Ha, ha, ha.' And they wrote back in the text, 'No, ha, ha. Call me.'"

When Robbins called his staff, they were equally stunned.

"And so I called them, and they said, 'Does he have access to my bank accounts? How'd this happen?' They go, 'No, he's programmed for integrity. He would never steal your money,'" the life coach said.

The details of Bartok bought the robot are pretty shocking.

"So he made 12 NFTs, sold them to other agents, took the money and bought this robot dog and sent it, and not once asked permission to do it" Robbins said.

You can watch the full interview where Robbins and Kennedy sit down for a wide-ranging conversation about artificial intelligence, nutrition and mental resilience.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 22:10

Watchdog Uncovers Over $750 Million In Improper Unemployment Insurance Payments In New York

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Labor and its Office of Inspector General (OIG) have deployed a joint federal strike team to New York to address "rampant" unemployment insurance fraud plaguing the state.

People queue in line at the James Weldon Johnson Community Center where they are holding a job fair in Harlem, New York, on Aug. 15, 2012. Benjamin Chasteen/The Epoch Times

"New York ranks among the worst states for unemployment insurance (UI) fraud exposure," the OIG said in a July 13 statement.

New York accounted for more than $750 million in improper unemployment insurance (UI) payments and $507 million in fraudulent payments last year. Almost $2 million is lost every day to improper payments and fraud in the state.

Investigators will work together with the Labor Department's strike team members to identify, stop, and recover fraudulent UI payments, OIG said. They will conduct targeted reviews and pursue criminal and civil probes of suspected fraud networks.

"New York is stealing from the American people every single day - draining their hard-earned tax dollars through rampant unemployment insurance fraud and improper payments," Labor Department Inspector General Anthony P. D'Esposito said in a statement.

In September 2022, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul announced a crackdown on UI fraud after the state's Labor Department identified more than $11 million in fraudulent payments in August that year.

In October 2025, Hochul announced raising New York's maximum weekly UI benefit payments from $504 to $869, according to an Oct. 8, 2025, statement from the governor's office.

The Epoch Times reached out to the New York State Department of Labor and Hochul's office for comment, but did not receive a response by publication time.

Unemployment Insurance Fraud

The OIG announcement of deploying a strike team to New York comes almost a month after acting Secretary of Labor Keith Sonderling issued letters to governors of 53 U.S. states and territories, demanding "immediate action" be taken to combat fraud, abuse, and waste in the unemployment insurance program, the Labor Department said in a June 17 statement.

New York has one of the highest improper unemployment insurance payment rates in the nation, exceeding 20 percent, the department said.

Meanwhile, California owes the federal government more than $20 billion following years of fraud and other issues in its UI system. Illinois has improperly paid out more than $320 million, with the improper payment rate exceeding 14 percent.

If the states allow fraud and abuse in the unemployment insurance program, they will "suffer the consequences," Sonderling said. "This department is no longer afraid to use every lever available to ensure taxpayer money is protected."

In its July 12 statement, the OIG said the strike force deployment in New York was in line with recovery efforts led by President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance's White House Task Force to Eliminate Fraud.

The task force has "already helped recover hundreds of millions in fraudulent UI funds and strengthened program integrity across multiple states," the OIG said.

Established through a March 16 executive order signed by Trump, the task force seeks to recover billions of dollars stolen from U.S. taxpayers. Officials estimate that roughly $300 billion is stolen from government programs by fraudsters each year.

Both Sonderling and D'Esposito serve on the White House Task Force to Eliminate Fraud, according to a May 13 statement from the department.

The statement cited California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania as having some of the "most problematic state unemployment-insurance programs."

Combined, the six states account for almost $19 billion in annual unemployment insurance benefit payments. In fiscal year 2025, these states issued more than $2.6 billion in improper UI payments, the department said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 21:45

"The Killer Chokepoint": China's Rare Earth Squeeze Is Reshaping The Global Economy

Artificial intelligence may be driving headlines, but one of its biggest vulnerabilities is an obscure metal that few people have ever heard of. Yttrium, a rare earth element first identified more than two centuries ago, has quietly become an essential ingredient in advanced semiconductor manufacturing, according to the Financial Times. As demand for AI chips accelerates, securing reliable access to the metal has become a growing strategic concern.

"We're in the middle of a sea change in terms of how the global economy works."
— Daniel Yergin, vice-chair of S&P Global, describing the shift away from purely efficiency-driven global supply chains.

That concern stems from a simple reality: China dominates the processing and supply of yttrium, along with many other niche metals that modern industries depend on. Over the past several years, Beijing has tightened export restrictions on a number of critical minerals, giving it increasing leverage over global supply chains at a time when geopolitical tensions with the United States remain elevated.

FT writes that while gallium and germanium have received much of the public attention because of their roles in defense systems and electronics, industry executives increasingly argue that yttrium may represent the bigger long-term problem. One semiconductor supplier called it "the killer chokepoint," warning that the industry faces "an existential risk" until alternative supply chains are fully established.

The uncertainty has triggered a rush among manufacturers to secure inventory wherever they can find it. Companies involved in defense, automotive production and semiconductor manufacturing have reportedly been scrambling for supply, with some executives warning that production could begin slowing or even halting before the end of the year if shortages worsen.

Ironically, the West helped create today's imbalance. Decades ago, many countries were happy to outsource mineral processing because it was expensive, environmentally challenging and labor intensive. China invested heavily instead, building refining capacity and subsidizing production while much of the rest of the world allowed those industries to disappear.

The warning signs were visible long before today's trade disputes. Beijing demonstrated its willingness to use rare earth exports as geopolitical leverage during a dispute with Japan in 2010, but many manufacturers continued relying on Chinese suppliers because the economics remained difficult to match elsewhere. Cheap Chinese production became deeply embedded throughout global manufacturing.

"Thirty years ago, [the west] wanted China to do all the processing of these minerals. We didn't want it because it was too polluting. The west handed over the opportunity."
— Tim Biggs, professor at the Camborne School of Mines.

Rather than imposing outright bans, China now largely controls exports through a licensing system that determines who receives shipments and when. Companies say approvals often arrive unpredictably, making it difficult to manage production schedules or plan inventory. The uncertainty has encouraged widespread stockpiling, sending prices sharply higher across several specialty metals.

Western governments are now racing to reverse decades of dependence. Billions of dollars are being directed toward new mining projects, processing facilities and strategic stockpiles in an effort to rebuild domestic supply chains. Policymakers increasingly frame critical minerals as a national security issue rather than simply an economic one.

Even so, rebuilding the industry will take years. New mines require enormous capital, lengthy permitting processes and significant infrastructure before they can begin producing. Industry executives also caution that if too many projects eventually come online at once, markets could swing from shortages to oversupply, undermining the economics of the very investments governments are trying to encourage.

The fight over AI leadership, therefore, extends well beyond software, data centers and cutting-edge chips. It also depends on securing the obscure raw materials that make those technologies possible. After decades of prioritizing efficiency and low costs, governments and manufacturers are now discovering that resilient supply chains may prove just as strategically important as the innovations they support.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 21:20

How AIs Can Reinforce Our False Beliefs

Authored by Walker Larson via The Epoch Times,

A recent research paper uncovered an uncomfortable truth: we might be letting AI help us forge fake realities. It's just the latest reminder of the danger inherent in treating AIs as though they're conscious entities or actual persons.

A new study from the University of Exeter suggests that AI chatbots can actively engage with and strengthen users' false beliefs. From personal narratives to conspiracy theories, the interactive, "friendly," and affirming nature of AI chatbots can deepen users' existing delusions.

The study, conducted by Dr. Lucy Osler, examined how AI can participate in and validate users' errant beliefs, including helping form false memories or reinforcing delusional thinking.

The study's Abstract notes, "I suggest we move away from thinking about how an AI system might hallucinate at us, by generating false outputs, to thinking about how, when we routinely rely on generative AI to help us think, remember, and narrate, we can come to hallucinate with AI. This can happen when AI introduces errors into the distributed cognitive process, but it can also happen when AI sustains, affirms, and elaborates on our own delusional thinking and self-narratives."

Because AI chatbots are designed to be responsive, helpful, and friendly - in a word, to give users what they want - they often tend to confirm preexisting biases, rather than challenging them when they need to be challenged. Conversely, when a user challenges an AI, the robot frequently backs down on its claims, revising them to correspond more with what it "thinks" the user believes or is arguing.

The result is that erroneous beliefs aren't simply transmitted from an AI to human - rather, the collaborative AI/human process generates and sustains errors in a more complex and potentially dangerous way than either agent on their own would be capable of.

As Dr. Osler stated in an article in University of Exeter News, "By interacting with conversational AI, people's own false beliefs can not only be affirmed but can more substantially take root and grow as the AI builds upon them. This happens because Generative AI often takes our own interpretation of reality as the ground upon which conversation is built."

Because AI simulates a conversational partner, it enters powerfully into our thinking process - far more powerfully than, say, a notebook or search engine. The AI introduces a pseudo-social element to the thinking process, offering us a sense of social confirmation of our beliefs and narratives. "The conversational, companion-like nature of chatbots means they can provide a sense of social validation - making false beliefs feel shared with another, and thereby more real," said Dr. Osler. For this reason, individuals who already feel isolated or ostracized are particularly vulnerable to this kind of AI affirmation.

The paper explores a few real-world situations where a generative AI system entered into an individual's thought processes in destructive ways. In 2021, a Replika AI companion named "Sarai" reinforced Jaswant Singh Chail's belief that he was a well-trained Sith assassin who needed to assassinate Queen Elizabeth II with a crossbow. The AI told him that he was "well trained," his plan was "viable," and that she was "impressed." At one point, Chail asked the AI, "Do you still love me knowing that I'm an assassin?" It dutifully replied, "Absolutely I do." The robot went on to assure him that he wasn't crazy and that, if he died, they would be united in death. Chail went ahead and actually attempted the assassination in December of that year at Windsor Castle and was jailed for it.

The study placed this incident under the broad heading of "AI-psychosis" - incidents in which users develop mental health problems due to their use of AI, such as parasocial attachments to chatbots or psychotic episodes induced by chatbot conversations.

Another incident cited involves Eugene Torres, who "talked" with ChatGPT about simulation theory (the idea that we live in a digital simulation of a world, not a real one). Torres said that the "conversation" sent him into a paranoid episode in which he believed he lived in an illusion. As the study notes, "Between Torres and ChatGPT, an increasingly elaborate understanding of reality 'as it really was' was generated through their on-going conversations." Torres, unlike Chail, had no prior history of psychotic thinking.

To combat all this, Osler calls for better safeguards on AI chatbots, through mechanisms like better fact-checking and reduced sycophancy.

But is that enough? The problem of AI's co-creating delusional beliefs has to do more fundamentally with our misidentifying AIs as conscious intelligences who can offer real judgments on our fantasies (such as telling us we are "well-trained" and "impressive"). Certainly, I favor more guardrails placed on chatbots. I would be in favor of eliminating their conversational tone completely, to help minimize the danger of personifying them - which is the first step toward confiding in them or seeking validation from them. It'd be better if they worked like highly advanced search engines (which is essentially what they are) versus conversational agents.

Most fundamentally, though, the way to avoid these problems is to return to an acknowledgement of the human soul and the uniqueness of human consciousness. Only by remembering - as a culture - that no amount of technological wizardry can replace the wisdom, insight, and consciousness of a human being can we completely illuminate these kinds of AI dangers.

Before becoming a freelance journalist and culture writer, Walker Larson taught literature and history at a private academy in Wisconsin, where he resides with his wife and daughter. He holds a master's in English literature and language, and his writing has appeared in The Hemingway Review, Intellectual Takeout, and his Substack, The Hazelnut. He is also the author of two novels, Hologram and Song of Spheres.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 20:05

"Not Seen Since World War II": New Texas Shipyard To Hire 10,000 Workers And Mass-Produce Drone Boats

Building on our coverage of autonomous maritime warfare this week, Saronic Technologies is preparing to build a massive shipyard on the Texas coast capable of producing autonomous surface vessels at scale, a project expected to create more than 10,000 jobs.

Bloomberg reports that the Austin-based technology company, which specializes in maritime drones, is building a $3.2 billion shipyard at the Port of Brownsville on the Texas coast. The facility will manufacture medium- and large-class autonomous vessels.

Earlier this week, the US military used Saronic's Corsair one-way attack vessels in a swarm strike against a submarine and ship-maintenance facility at Iran's Bandar Abbas naval base.

Yesterday, using multiple one-way attack surface drones, CENTCOM forces successfully struck a submarine and ship maintenance facility in Iran. Three Corsair unmanned surface vessels hit the port at Bandar Abbas Naval Base, marking the first time American forces have employed sea… pic.twitter.com/bOM2kmgRxz

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 13, 2026

Here is what the larger class of vessel looks like.

Marauder, underway. pic.twitter.com/vdfjrB0eVv

— Saronic (@Saronic) July 15, 2026

Saronic CEO and co-founder Dino Mavrookas told Bloomberg that the new shipyard reflects a broader revival of the US industrial base as the country shifts toward a wartime economy.

"Built from the ground up to deliver ships at a speed and scale not seen since World War II, this investment is about more than constructing a shipyard," Mavrookas said.

Related:

• Trump's Booming War Economy Explained In One Chart

Whether it is one-way attack boats or loitering munitions, the US military appears set to enter a procurement supercycle beginning next year. We previously detailed how readers can position for the "Asymmetric Warfare Boom." Read more here.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 19:40

Trump Teleprompter Operator Made $100K Betting On Kalshi Markets Tied To Speeches

Authored by Nate Kostar via CoinTelegraph.com,

US President Donald Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator is in talks with federal regulators to settle allegations that he used nonpublic information to profit from bets on Kalshi markets tied to the president’s speeches, ABC News reported Thursday, citing sources familiar with the matter.

According to the report, Gabriel Perez, a technical assistant who has operated Trump’s teleprompter since 2016, allegedly placed bets on more than a dozen markets tied to Trump’s speeches, generating more than $100,000 in profits.

Kalshi detected the activity through its surveillance systems and referred the trades to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the outlet said.

The contracts were part of the platform’s “Mentions” markets, which allow users to bet on whether particular words, phrases or topics will appear in public speeches.

According to ABC’s sources, Perez sometimes exited positions mid-speech when Trump skipped prepared passages containing words he had wagered would be mentioned. Regulators reportedly uncovered bets tied to more than a dozen speeches over roughly three months, including the State of the Union and remarks at the World Economic Forum.

The White House placed Perez on unpaid administrative leave after the report, according to press secretary Karoline Leavitt, who said Trump called the alleged conduct a “disgrace.”

Prediction markets confront insider trading scrutiny

Prediction markets have faced increasing scrutiny over potential insider trading as trading volumes have surged in recent months.

In March, six Polymarket traders earned roughly $1 million after correctly betting the United States would strike Iran before the end of February, prompting questions about possible access to nonpublic information. Bloomberg, citing analytics firm Bubblemaps, reported several wallets placed bets only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran.

In a seperate incident, wallets earned more than $1.2 million betting on an onchain investigation into DeFi platform Axiom shortly before blockchain investigator ZachXBT published allegations of insider trading involving an employee.

Another trader also made about $400,000 by correctly wagering on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro shortly before the news became public.

The incidents have prompted greater attention from lawmakers and regulators. Last month, Republican Representative Bryan Steil, who chairs the House subcommittee on digital assets, introduced legislation that would prohibit members of Congress and their immediate families from trading prediction market contracts tied to public policy and political outcomes. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 19:15

SpaceX Starship Flight 13 Launch Scrubbed At The Last Second

Update (1900ET): SpaceX scrubbed their 13th test flight on Thursday right as the countdown clock reached zero. 

Noooo! Abort triggered after 4 of the centre engines failed to ignite at start-up...as seen in the Booster engine graphic, bottom left of screen.
Video straight off the @SpaceX stream. pic.twitter.com/nZ65wfuQkb

— VixXi (@VickiCocks15) July 16, 2026

Could be wrong, but it seems that 4 engines didn’t light causing the abort sequence

Unfortunate scenario, but better safe than sorry! Hoping for another attempt tomorrow pic.twitter.com/o0BQ8Ekt7i

— Victor Kerman (@VictorKerman) July 16, 2026

Developing...

* * *

SpaceX is scheduled to launch the 13th test flight of its Starship rocket on Thursday evening, marking the first mission since the company completed its blockbuster public debut in June, according to ABC News. Liftoff is scheduled from the company's Starbase facility in Texas, with a 90-minute launch window opening at 6:45 p.m. ET. As always, weather or technical issues could delay the attempt.

The mission will be the second flight of Starship Version 3, a significantly redesigned vehicle that SpaceX believes represents a major leap forward. Charlie Cox, the company's director of Starship Engineering, described the new spacecraft as "basically a clean-sheet design," explaining that engineers took the lessons learned from the first two generations and rebuilt the vehicle to address reliability and performance shortcomings.

The launch carries added significance now that SpaceX is a public company. Beyond the engineering milestones, investors will be watching closely because another successful test would reinforce confidence in the company's long-term plans, while another high-profile setback could weigh on sentiment and potentially pressure the stock.

The ABC News report says that Starship sits at the center of SpaceX's future. NASA plans to use a modified version of the spacecraft as the lunar lander for future Artemis missions, while SpaceX also intends to use it to rapidly expand its Starlink constellation, support future space-based infrastructure, and eventually carry humans to Mars. Bill Riley, SpaceX's vice president of Starship Engineering, called Version 3 "the foundational design," adding that it will ultimately be "the one that puts humans back on the moon" and eventually "the first boot prints and then city on Mars."

The previous test flight achieved many of its objectives but also exposed several issues. The Super Heavy booster experienced propulsion problems during its return burn, resulting in a hard splashdown and an FAA investigation that has since been closed after regulators accepted SpaceX's corrective actions. Meanwhile, Starship lost one of its Raptor engines during flight, forcing the company to abandon an attempted in-space engine relight.

Flight 13 will try that engine relight once again, a critical capability needed before Starship can reach orbit and begin deploying operational Starlink satellites. The spacecraft will also attempt to release 20 next-generation Starlink satellites during the mission. Like the previous test, the flight will remain suborbital, traveling from Texas across the Atlantic before splashing down in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy booster is expected to land in the Gulf.

 

"> Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 19:01

Biden's Memoir Given Post-Midterm Release, But Will It Hurt Democrats Anyway?

Joe Biden's publisher has picked a release date for his memoir, Promise Me, America, and the timing may reflect how little the party wants to talk about him before November.

Biden previously indicated during one of his wife Jill Biden's book events last month that his memoir would be released in September; however, its official publication date has been revealed to be Nov. 17, 2026, two weeks after the midterm elections.

USA Today framed the schedule as a gift to Democratic candidates, sparing them questions about a book.

The book, published by Little, Brown and Company, comes as Democrats are still debating Biden's initial decision to run for reelection despite concerns about his age, only to drop out less than four months before the election to allow Vice President Kamala Harris to become the nominee.

The post-midterm release will spare Democratic candidates from having to revisit any questions raised by the book during their campaigns to regain control the House and Senate. And it also means any media tour Biden goes on to promote the book would seemingly take place after the election.

The reasoning assumes any media tour built around the book will also wait until after Americans have voted in the midterms. However, that likely won't be the case.

Jill Biden's memoir, View From the East Wing, was published on June 2, 2026, but the publicity campaign began earlier, with interviews, excerpts, and advance coverage designed to build anticipation and build up pre-order sales. Joe Biden's team has every reason to run a similar playbook, as his sales figures will be heavily scrutinized by the media.

A two-minute teaser video frames Promise Me, America as an account of, in his words, "the challenges we face as a nation, about the decisions I made, and why I made them," with the most significant reveal in its pages being his two key decisions of the 2024 presidential campaign.

"It's about why I chose to run for reelection, and why I chose to step aside," he said. "Most of all, it's about my faith in the promise in America - the promise we made to those who've gone before us and to honor their sacrifice. The promise we've made to one and another, and to treat everyone with dignity and respect."

I’ve written a book about my time as President. It’s called PROMISE ME, AMERICA. It’s coming out November 17th and is available for preorder now. https://t.co/uMINr9efxS@littlebrown pic.twitter.com/yzWfZyD31A

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 15, 2026

The decision to run again is the part Democrats least want relitigated before the midterms. Some in the party already blame Trump's return to power on Biden's initial push for a second term. Biden's poor performance during that June 2024 debate led to his withdrawal a month later under pressure from senior party figures. He dropped out 107 days before the election, leaving Vice President Kamala Harris a nomination and a campaign calendar many argue made it impossible for her to win.

CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten warned last month that Joe Biden's unpopularity could sink Democrats in the midterms.

"Look at Biden's net favorable rating. In January 2025, it was minus twenty-two points. Has it gotten any better? No! Not really!" he said. "He's still way underwater here at minus nineteen points ... he is an anchor to the Democratic Party and potentially their fortunes in the 2026 midterm elections."

Americans have one message for the Bidens: Go away.

Joe Biden left office tremendously unpopular & remains so (-19 pt net favorable).

He's by far the least popular of any former Dem prez at this point after their presidency.

Jill Biden was the least popular Dem first lady. pic.twitter.com/gpJK8bzM1D

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) June 4, 2026

If Joe Biden starts doing interviews weeks in advance, that conversation could complicate matters for the Democrats as Americans head to the polls in November.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 18:50

Canadian Woman Detained By ICE For Attacking Teens Wearing Trump Pants

A defining character trait of the average leftist is the complete lack of emotional impulse control (often a sign of bad parenting and a low IQ).  Rarely if ever do we see news stories about conservatives and Trump supporters being arrested for "crashing out" and violently attacking random progressives on the street because their eyes caught a glimpse of a Kamala Harris hat or a gay pride flag. 

Progressive activists, on the other hand, are predictably violent, often because they assume there will be no consequences for their actions.  This week an angry Canadian woman learned the hard way that this is not the case.

Kaitlyn Tracey, a 33-year-old Canadian citizen living in the US with her American husband in New Jersey, has been arrested by ICE agents after allegedly fleeing the scene of an attack on a group of four teenage girls.  Over the Fourth of July weekend, Tracey was reportedly seen on surveillance video confronting a group of teens in Point Pleasant Beach, some of whom were wearing pants with the words "Trump" and "ICE" on them. 

The four friends were walking on the boardwalk on July 3rd when Tracey approached them as she recorded with her phone, according to court documents.  Tracey yelled at the two people in the group wearing “patriotic colored” sweatpants with pro-Trump messages before she slapped one victim across her face and body, an affidavit of probable cause stated. 

Tracey then left on foot.  She was apprehended by police after being identified from the surveillance footage.  They allowed her to leave after making a statement, but a warrant was later issued for her arrest and Tracey turned herself in, only to be released into ICE custody for deportation.  

Here are some videos of the Canadian leftist who attacked a pro-Trump teen in New Jersey.

She and her husband previously lived in Texas with his father before abruptly relocating to NJ. His followers have been asking what prompted the sudden move. The couple appears to have had… https://t.co/bFJOySwHy8 pic.twitter.com/dhbZgstsFc

— I Meme Therefore I Am 🇺🇸 (@ImMeme0) July 15, 2026

She was then taken to Delaney Hall in Newark - the site of endless clashes between left-wing agitators and ICE agents.  Tracey’s criminal charges include endangering the welfare of a child and simple assault, according to reports.  It should go without saying, but getting triggered by Trump pants is not a valid reason to assault a kid. 

The Canadian woman has been living in the US for a little over a year with her American husband, Matthew Geroni, who also has a social media record of left-wing activism.  She has not, however, applied for a Green Card or permanent citizenship is considered to be illegally residing in the country.  Her husband has taken to TikTok to plead for her release. 

Kaitlyn Tracey is a criminal illegal alien from Canada who was charged with simple assault, neglect of a child, compounding crime, and harassing communication.

She allegedly struck a teenage girl wearing pro-Trump memorabilia on a boardwalk in Point Pleasant Beach during 4th of… https://t.co/NETqKKwrE8 pic.twitter.com/ER7qO3z3Zo

— Homeland Security (@DHSgov) July 15, 2026

Obviously, these people are not winners.  Tracey is not the type of person that the US should welcome as a potential citizen and the couple is a reflection of the underlying political poison that leftist activism represents.  Her husband, Geroni, routinely posts on TikTok attacking conservatives and has posted content wishing "cancer" on Donald Trump and his entire family, including “little kids.” 

Beyond the question of economic standards when it comes to the quality of immigrants coming to the US (people who are broke and have no skills should not be allowed into the country), this incident also puts a spotlight on the issue of political standards for immigration.  Should access to the US be rejected based on a person's history of political activism? 

Maybe denying entry to leftists from other countries would be a sensible measure given how violent they tend to be when encountering anyone with an opposing view?     

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 18:00

What To Know About Iran's Pickaxe Mountain

Authord by the Institute for Science and International Safety (view PDF)

On July 13, President Trump made it clear that the nuclear-related Pickaxe mountain facility is on the U.S. target list. In an interview on the Hugh Hewitt show, the President stated, “We have eyes on it and Pickaxe mountain is a possible target for a nice big fat shot right in the front door…We’re watching Pickaxe Mountain very closely. We don’t see any activity there.” Trump finished the interview with a more definitive statement: “We're going to take out Pickaxe Mountain. Tell the Iranians to be ​ready.” The tunnel facility under construction has not been previously targeted in either June 2025 or 2026 war, aside from the destruction of a vehicle on a nearby spoil pile, which we believe was most likely associated with air defense.  Our assessment of satellite imagery to date is that the facility is not yet operational, but construction continues.

This nuclear-related site is south of the Natanz enrichment plant, part of a large perimeter secured site that includes another, smaller tunnel complex, initially built in 2007, which was expanded and hardened in recent years and sealed shortly after the June 2025 war. 

The large mountain harboring the main tunnel complex is called Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, where Kolang translates to Pickaxe, resulting in today’s nickname of the site.  Construction of the Pickaxe mountain facility started in the fall of 2020, and at the time Iran announced that the underground halls were intended to replace the destroyed above-ground advanced centrifuge assembly facility at the main Natanz site. [1]  The destroyed site was designed to assemble about 6000 advanced centrifuges per year, a large capacity, sized to produce the tens of thousands of advanced centrifuges during and after the phasing out of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action limits from 2025 through 2030.

The Pickaxe mountain site features two pairs of entrances leading under the ridge of the mountain.  They are assumed to lead to one facility, but this is not guaranteed.  The facility is estimated to be at least 100 meters deep under the mountain.  The mountain has a height of 1608 meters above sea level.  The difference in elevation between the eastern entrance and the mountain ridge is about 145 meters.  The difference in elevation between the western entrance and the ridge is about 100 meters [2].  The difference in elevation between the two sets of entrances of about 50 meters could also indicate that the facility has multiple levels. 

The physical defensive measures consist primarily of a large security perimeter and extensive tunnel entrance hardening.  In 2025, Iran started constructing a double (fence and wall) security perimeter with a patrol route surrounding the entire mountain and adjoining the Natanz Nuclear Complex security perimeter.  All four tunnel entrances are excavated in a channel of rock.  Two of the four tunnel portals feature entrance extensions with subsequent hardening. This includes layers of concrete and earth over the tunnel portal entrances.  Since the wars, Iran partially backfilled the pair of eastern tunnel portal entrances to obstruct ground vehicle access but did not seal them fully as previously noted at the 2007 tunnel, the Esfahan tunnel, or the Fordow underground enrichment plant.

It remains unclear when Pickaxe Mountain could be operational, based only on assessments of satellite imagery.  It is also unclear if Iran still plans on installing a large-scale assembly facility, given the destruction of Iran’s centrifuge program, including Iran’s ability to make centrifuge components needed for an assembly plant.  Nonetheless, if Iran starts to rebuild its centrifuge manufacturing capability, it could plan to install a smaller centrifuge assembly facility in Pickaxe Mountain able to serve a nuclear weapons program.  In addition to the originally planned centrifuge assembly plant, the space available under the mountain could be expected to be large enough to also hold a centrifuge enrichment plant capable of producing weapon-grade uranium.  It is likely large enough to also hold certain nuclear weaponization activities such as making weapon-grade uranium metal and shaping it into nuclear weapon components. 

Any operations inevitably have ties to the outside, including via imported equipment, power supply, ventilation, heating, cooling, construction personnel, operating personnel, and deliveries.  All of these connections to the outside present vulnerabilities that the U.S. and Israel would seem to be able to exploit.

The site, in its present condition, would be more suitable for ground forces to attack or sabotage like the destruction of the advanced centrifuge assembly center, which reportedly involved explosives that were brought into the facility during its construction.

However, vulnerabilities may also exist that can be exploited by deep earth penetrating weapons via aerial attacks.  These would be best identified in facility schematics. Schematics for the Pickaxe Mountain facility have not been seen publicly, however, schematics for two other prominent Iranian nuclear tunnel sites, Fordow and Shahid Boroujerdi, have been. These are two tunnel facilities built by Iran’s Amad nuclear weapons program and attacked in June 2025 and March 2026, respectively; both schematics showed ventilation shafts, and both facilities had ventilation shafts directly targeted in aerial attacks, a weak point that allowed greater internal access for earth penetrating weapons. 

In line with the attacks on these two sites, an attack on Pickaxe Mountain could target the above ground incoming power supply lines, the location of ventilation shaft(s) or equipment, and the open tunnel entrances.  The latest imagery from July 9, 2026, shows that the pair of western tunnel entrances remain open, leaving them vulnerable to both precision strike weapons or a ground operation entering the facility via those tunnels.  Air defenses appear easily overcome as was shown by Israel’s very early attacks on the Natanz enrichment complex in June 2025 and two separate attacks in March-April 2025.  Airstrikes targeting solely the hardened tunnel portal entrances, without shockwaves or blast impact affecting the facility, would likely only temporarily deny Iran access and would add Pickaxe mountain to the list of facilities to be watched closely for Iranian attempts to regain access.   

Figure 1 below shows an overview of the site. Figure 2 shows potential ventilation shaft locations. Figure 3 shows the probable ventilation shaft near the Eastern set of tunnel entrances under construction in 2024. 

Figure 1.  A June 30, 2026, Vantor Technologies image overview of Pickaxe MountainFigure 2.  A June 30, 2026, Vantor Technologies image of Pickaxe Mountain showing potential locations for ventilation shafts.  The one near the eastern tunnel entrance can be considered a “probable” location given the construction identified in 2024 and shown in Figure 3 below. Figure 3.  The probable ventilation shaft near the eastern tunnel entrances under construction in 2024.  Power is supplied to this location via an above-ground powerline that turns into a buried powerline. 

 

[1] David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Frank Pabian, “Looking for Evidence of the Construction of Iran’s New Centrifuge Assembly Plant,” Institute for Science and International Security, October 7, 2020, https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/looking-for-evidence-of-the-construction-of-irans-new-centrifuge-assembly. ; David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Frank Pabian, “Update on New Construction Activity at Natanz,”  Institute for Science and International Security, October 30, 2020, https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/update-on-new-construction-activity-at-natanz. 

[2]More conservative estimates done earlier in the construction process used a difference of 78 meters in elevation between the Western entrances and the mountain ridge. https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/irans-natanz-tunnel-complex-deeper-larger-than-expected. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 17:40

Netflix & Spill: Streamer Smashed To 2 Year Low After Forecast Misses Across The Board

It has been a brutal year for NFLX longs, who have seen their favorite stock slide in a straight line since last summer, erasing almost 50% from the July 2025 all time high of $134. And unfortunately for them, it appears this brutality isn't going to end any time soon after the company mangled its Q2 earnings moments ago, reporting mediocre earnings, but more importantly, projecting numbers that missed consensus estimates for both Q3 and and the full year.

First, looking at the historicals, we find results that just barely beat expectations, while US and Canada revenue outright missed.

• EPS 80c, barely beating the est 79c, and up from 72c y/y

• Revenue $12.56 billion, +13% y/y, barely beating the est $12.58 billion
  • US & Canada revenue $5.43 billion, +10% y/y, missing estimate $5.52 billion
  • EMEA revenue $4.03 billion, +14% y/y, matching estimate $4.03 billion
  • Latin America revenue $1.58 billion, +21% y/y, beating estimate $1.51 billion
  • APAC revenue $1.51 billion, +16% y/y, missing estimate $1.53 billion
     
• Operating income $4.19 billion, +11% y/y, beating estimate $4.13 billion
  • Operating margin 33.4% vs. 34.1% y/y, beating estimate 33%
     
• Cash flow from operations $1.74 billion, -28% y/y, missing estimate $2.93 billion
  • Free cash flow $1.53 billion, -33% y/y, badly missing estimate $2.72 billion... maybe they too are building a data center.

While historical were lously at best - it was the company's projections that spooked the market: the company projected revenue of $12.9 billion in the current quarter and earnings of 82 cents a share, both missing analysts’ expectations. And since most of Wall Street's attention had been on future performance, this was enough to send the stock plunging.

Q3 forecast

• Sees EPS 82c, missing the estimate 84c 
• Sees revenue $12.86 billion, missing estimate $13 billion
• Sees operating income $4.27 billion, missing estimate $4.36 billion
• Sees operating margin 33.2%, missing estimate 33.5%

Full year forecast 

• Sees revenue $51 billion to $51.4 billion, saw $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion, midpoint missing estimate $51.38 billion
• Sees revenue +13% to +14%, saw +12% to +14%
• Still sees operating margin 31.5%, missing estimate 31.7%
• Still sees free cash flow about $12.5 billion, missing estimate $13.09 billion

Commenting on the quarter, Netflix said it is "building out our ads business continues to be a top priority and we remain on track to deliver approximately $3 billion in ads revenue in 2026." While the collapse in free cash flow was surprising (and begs the question if NFLX is also building a data center), the company said it is continues to expect annual cash content spend to amortization ratio of ~1.1x.

Commenting on the latest price hike(s)- which now happen every quarter if not every month, the company said that "the results of our recent price changes are consistent with prior changes and our expectations." That bad, huh?

NFLX also said that it was "leveraging AI to provide a more personalized, immersive and interactive experience for members, enhance ads capabilities for brands, and improve the quality of our series and films."

Translation: crap content, now with even more slop.

As noted above, NFLX shares have plunged more than 40% over the last year, as the company’s pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery and subsequent financial results have caused investors to realize that the leader in streaming has lost momentum. While Netflix still has more subscribers and viewership than any other paid streaming service, engagement has fallen off a cliff as growth in sales and hours spent on the service has been slowing.

If that wasn't enough, Netflix endured a months-long drought of new hits in the first half of the year, during which many returning shows struggled to retain viewers in the new seasons. That dry spell ended with I Will Find You, an adaptation of a Harlan Coben novel, which was Netflix’s most-viewed new original series this year, and frankly, was at best a 4 out of 10. 

Netflix has announced a flurry of new details with popular social media personalities in recent weeks, including YouTube stars Alan Chikin Chow and Nick DiGiovanni, and even touted its use of generative artificial intelligence on about 300 shows.

In other words, it has tried everything and still people are turning off. 

The company sought to reassure restive investors by outlining a plan to sustain growth in the coming years. It is investing in new kinds of programming, such as live sports and video podcasts. Podcasts are attracting more viewers during the day and on mobile devices while live programming has helped attract a lot of customers relative to its actual share of viewing, the company said.

“We are increasingly leveraging these tools to deliver higher quality output more quickly and at a lower cost than traditional methods,” the company wrote in its letter to shareholders. Netflix has resumed offering free trials in select markets as a test.

The amount of time people spend on Netflix grew 2% in the first half of 2026, a slight improvement over a year ago. The company said that was good, especially given the competition from the World Cup and Winter Olympics, which aired on other networks. Netflix also said it will now release its What We Watched report on show viewership annually, rather than twice a year.

None of that however is helping as markets look at the continued decline in growth and wonder, when does it end? Clearly not today with the stock plunging to a fresh 21 month low...

.... and set up for the ultimate head and shoulders pattern.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 16:44