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Aluminum Market Descends Into Supply 'Black Hole'
Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange are climbing into the end of the week, reaching $3,621 a ton and approaching the peak seen during Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The problem now is that the aluminum market has been thrust into a serious supply shock amid the U.S.-Iran conflict in the Middle East, one that is unlikely to be reversed in the near term.
One big problem we highlighted last weekend was that Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA), the Gulf's largest aluminum producer, declared force majeure on part of its contract book after Iranian missile and drone strikes hit its Al Taweelah smelter. Then there is the Hormuz chokepoint and the U.S. blockade of the critical waterway, which has only further throttled vessel traffic.
It is important to note that EGA accounts for 4% of the world's aluminum production. The broader Middle East accounts for about 9% of global aluminum production.
JPMorgan analysts have warned that the industry is descending into a black hole, or a "metaphorical point of no return," where the "global aluminum market will face a serious and prolonged supply outage," even if vessel flows through the Hormuz chokepoint resume in the near term.
The analysts warned clients earlier this week that the market has now entered that dangerous void, and LME prices could soon reach $4,000 a ton as the largest supply deficit in more than 25 years quickly emerges.
Goldman commodity specialist James McGeoch recently warned clients, "Hard to think of a bigger metal supply shock: High degree of expectation this was where it was heading, but the initial reaction was to fade the uncertainty yesterday, that should be replaced by fresh length if history is a guide."
Countries exposed to Gulf aluminum shipments include the U.S., Japan, Turkey, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, Italy, Greece, and India. Any supply shock could hit Western manufacturers, allowing alternative suppliers in China and Russia to step up.
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A Model For Europe? Switzerland Moves To Strengthen Country Against Foreign Property Owners And Migration
Foreign property owners will see their access to Swiss housing significantly reduced, as the Federal Council has decided to require authorization for their purchases. With foreigners accounting for more and more real estate transactions in the Western world, Switzerland’s tough measures may be a template for other nations.
The new measure aims to combat the housing shortage, especially as the population is set to vote in two months on the Swiss People’s Party’s (SVP) initiative “No 10 Million Swiss Francs,” reports Blick, based on a statement from the ATS Swiss Telegraphic Agency.
The Federal Council intends to require authorization for the purchase of primary residences by nationals of countries outside the European Union and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), it stated in a press release. If these owners relocate, they will have to resell their property within two years.
Foreign owners will also no longer be able to acquire commercial properties for the purpose of renting them out. The aim is to prevent purchases made solely for investment purposes. The purchase of shares in publicly traded residential real estate companies and units in real estate funds will also no longer be systematically permitted.
The government also plans to tighten regulations on holiday homes. The annual quotas that cantons have to authorize purchases by foreign owners will be reduced. Sales between foreign nationals will again require authorization. Any acquisition of holiday homes by non-Swiss buyers will reduce the cantonal quota by one unit.
“These proposals aim to refocus the Koller Law on its primary objective,” the Federal Council writes.
The draft bill is open for consultation until July 15.
This series of measures was decided in response to the Swiss People’s Party (SVP/UDC) initiative “No Switzerland with 10 million inhabitants.” The agrarian party wants to curb population growth by capping the resident population at 10 million.
The Swiss People’s Party (UDC) behind the proposal stated that rising immigration had resulted in “housing shortages and rising rents, traffic jams on the roads, crowded trains and buses, falling standards of schools, increasing violence and crime, electricity shortages, income stagnating per capita, ever-higher health insurance premiums, indebted social services, and increased pressure on the beauty of the landscape and the preservation of nature.”
If the new limit is exceeded, measures regarding asylum will have to be taken. And the free movement of persons agreement concluded with the EU could be terminated.
The Federal Council is clearly opposed to this text, which would jeopardize the agreements with Brussels reached at the end of 2024 after years of negotiations. The package still needs to be approved by the Swiss and European Parliaments. The Swiss people will then have their say.
With the amendment to the Lex Koller, “the Federal Council is closing a loophole in the stock market exploited by foreign investors,” the Socialist Party emphasized in a statement on Wednesday. According to the parliamentary group, this decision “sends a strong signal.”
Filling this gap “is a long-awaited step forward for tenants and those wishing to acquire home ownership,” said the co-president of the Socialist Group, National Councillor Samuel Bendahan (VD), quoted in the press release. According to him, “foreign investors could easily enter the Swiss housing market via the stock exchange, circumventing the Lex Koller, without authorization or oversight.”
“It was high time to reverse the relaxations of the Lex Koller that have driven up prices, and thus rents, over the past few decades,” adds National Councillor Christian Dandrès (GE).
Across Europe, housing affordability has become a major issue. On one end, mass immigration has fueled tight housing markets, driving up housing prices and rent. At the same time, foreign investors are increasingly buying up more and more property, pricing out natives. In cities like Paris, foreigners own nearly 4 percent of residential housing stock. In other countries like Germany, foreigners buying up property is also an issue, but it is difficult to ascertain how much of the housing stock is owned by foreigners, as they often buy the property through a company registered in Germany and through numerous layers of shell companies.
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World's First Six-Gen Bomber Completes Aerial Refueling Test Flight
Northrop Grumman released new images of its B-21 Raider stealth bomber performing "more advanced stages of flight test" and "aerial refueling."
Northrop Grumman’s B-21 Raider continues to demonstrate outstanding performance as the program moves into more advanced phases flight test, including aerial refueling. (Photo Credit: U.S. Air Force)The B-21 is the world's first sixth-generation aircraft and the "most advanced aircraft to take to the sky now has global reach," according to Northrop.
The B-21 Raider conducts aerial refueling with a KC-135 Stratotanker, which is a key part to the Raider’s role in projecting power globally. (Photo Credit: Northrop Grumman)The test campaign of the B-21 comes as Eurasia is on fire in multiple conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Iran conflict in the Gulf area.
Northrop did not say when the B-21 conducted the test flight but our reporting from mid-March had a timeframe then and over the Mojave Desert.
Northrop listed ten fun facts about the B-21:
1. Sixth-Generation Stealth
The B-21 Raider leverages decades of innovation to deliver superior stealth with extended range. Its advanced, fuel-efficient engines integrated into a sleeker airframe reduce tanker support reliance more than any previous bomber, enhancing agility and persistence across missions.
The B-21 has demonstrated outstanding stealth performance in testing, showcasing the effectiveness of its advanced low-observable design that will allow it to penetrate the most sophisticated air defenses undetected.
Modernized, low-observable processes will also make the B-21 easier and less costly to maintain than prior systems, ensuring the fleet's operational readiness for our nation's most critical missions.
2. Built to Deliver Strategic Deterrence
The B-21 Raider is designed to hold any target at risk, anywhere in the world. With the ability to deliver both conventional and nuclear payloads, it provides decision-makers with flexible, survivable response options across the full spectrum of conflict. The B-21's open architecture will deliver seamless upgrades, enabling the Raider fleet to evolve its mission and weapons capabilities to outpace any threat.
3. Mission-Driven Partnership
The development of the B-21 Raider is a testament to the results-focused collaboration between Northrop Grumman and the Air Force. Northrop Grumman's partnership is built on transparency and a commitment to shared success, exemplified by an industry-first agreement that provides access to valuable data, including the B-21 digital twin, enhancing affordability and agility in upgrades.
As a proven partner, Northrop Grumman delivers effective, data-driven solutions that meet the demands of critical missions. Together, the company and the Air Force are demonstrating the B-21's capabilities against adversaries.
4. Strategically Investing
Committed to leading the way, Northrop Grumman consistently invests in the technologies and tools that empower the best fighting force in the world. To date, the company has invested more than $5 billion in the B-21 program's digital and manufacturing infrastructure. Our investments in manufacturing capacity are accelerating production, providing flexibility to support future fleet growth and ensuring long-term U.S. Air Force strike dominance.
These investments power our digital ecosystem, equipping the B-21 Raider with highly advanced software, manufacturing and engineering tools. As a result, software certification time has already been reduced by 50%, ensuring the B-21 stays at the speed of relevance for future technology insertion. The ecosystem also enables real-time validation of aircraft performance during tests.
5. Delivering Results that Ensure America Wins
Northrop Grumman's expertise in advanced aircraft systems is driving flight test results that showcase speed, efficiency and exceptional performance.
Multiple B-21 Raider aircraft are currently in flight test, consistently exceeding expectations. Most sorties achieve "code one" status, indicating the aircraft returned from its flight without maintenance issues and is ready to go fly again. This reaffirms the quality of the design and build, and signals strong future operational performance.
Simultaneously, Northrop Grumman engineers are conducting ground tests to ensure the B-21 can operate in the most extreme mission conditions. These test results consistently surpass digital modeling predictions, further validating the aircraft's design and capabilities.
6. Accelerating Advanced Manufacturing
Northrop Grumman's advanced manufacturing processes, including digital and augmented reality tools, enable technicians to visualize tasks and solve problems before ever touching the plane. This approach connects technicians to design engineers as never before, improving efficiency and cultivating expertise throughout the manufacturing workforce.
Northrop Grumman has invested in manufacturing technology and capacity at our facilities across the U.S. to accelerate and scale production of the B-21 Raider. We are increasing production rates on capability that will project American power anywhere in the world.
7. More than a Bomber
As the world's most advanced aircraft to take the skies, the B-21 Raider combines unmatched range, access and payload in a single system designed to perform specialized missions no other aircraft can accomplish.
Instrumental in maintaining U.S. and allied security amid a complex global landscape, the B-21 is a key part of a powerful family of systems. It delivers a new era of capability and flexibility by seamlessly integrating data, sensors and weapons – enabling precision strikes and comprehensive situational awareness.
8. Ready on Day One
Northrop Grumman is developing comprehensive training, sustainment and fleet management tools for the Air Force as they prepare to operate and maintain the B-21 Raider. Leveraging extensive flight test data and decades of sustainment experience across a variety of systems, these tools ensure the B-21 enters service ready, affordable and sustainable at scale.
Test pilots report exceptional handling during aerial refueling, noting a high degree of stability and control. These qualities reduce training requirements and enable faster refueling, increasing operational tempo and agility – further proving that the B-21 will deliver unmatched performance for U.S. Air Force operators.
9. American Made Deterrence
An all-American team of more than 8,000 industry and Air Force personnel are designing, building, testing and delivering on the promise of B-21. The team consists of more than 400 suppliers across 40 states. This is a nationwide effort to provide deterrence capability that strengthens and defends our nation.
10. Bold, Innovative, Courageous
The B-21 Raider is named in honor of the Doolittle Raid of World War II when 80 airmen, led by Lt. Col. James "Jimmy" Doolittle, and 16 B-25 Mitchell medium bombers set off on a mission that changed the course of World War II. The raid was a catalyst for a multitude of future progress in U.S. air superiority and serves as the inspiration behind the Raider name and the pioneering, innovative spirit instilled across the workforce bringing the B-21 to life.
Separate but related to the defense world, The Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump administration is preparing to fire up the "war economy" by asking automakers to convert car production lines into weapons manufacturing. It's a must-read report that can be found here.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 05:45Travelers may be slapped with ‘ridiculous’ new fees as popular city seeks millions per year
Norway's Oil Export Earnings Surge 68% Amid Iran War
Authored by Alex Komani via OilPrice.com,
Norway's crude oil export earnings surged 67.9% year-on-year in March to a record 57.4 billion kroner ($6.1 billion), primarily driven by soaring global energy prices following the outbreak of the Iran war and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices averaged 1,014 kroner ($107.52) per barrel in March, the highest monthly average since September 2023.
As Europe’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, the Scandinavian country exported 56.6 million barrels of crude oil in March, good for nearly 2 million barrels per day. Norway’s natural gas export revenues also climbed 19% to over 69 billion kroner as Europe sought alternative energy sources amid Middle East instability, helping the country record a trade surplus to the tune of 97.5 billion kroner, its highest level since January 2023.
Norway’s windfall oil earnings did not escape the attention of U.S. President Donald Trump:
“Europe is desperate for energy, and yet the United Kingdom refuses to open North Sea oil, one of the greatest fields in the world. Tragic!!!” he wrote in Truth Social.
“Aberdeen should be booming. Norway sells its North Sea oil to the UK at double the price. They are making a fortune,” he added.
North Sea oil and gas production is in long-term, structural decline, with over 90% of its producible resources already extracted.
However, Norway has been able to maintain high production by expanding exploration in the Arctic Barents Sea, pivoting to new, smaller discoveries in the North Sea, and investing heavily in the Norwegian Sea.
The Barents Sea is widely regarded as one of the most promising, yet under-explored, oil and gas frontiers on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, with roughly 80% of its remaining hydrocarbon resources yet to be tapped.
Meanwhile, the Norwegian Sea is an increasingly attractive area of interest, with roughly 50% of its remaining oil and gas resources yet to be discovered.
About one-third of the estimated resources in the Norwegian Sea are located in unopened areas, including off Lofoten and Vesterålen as well as around Jan Mayen.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 05:00