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The Beautiful Great Game: Extra Time & Penalties

Zero Rss
2 days 3 hours ago
The Beautiful Great Game: Extra Time & Penalties

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday’s in-line US CPI report was the non-event its relative insignificance vs tumultuous domestic and global backdrops suggested it should be. Meanwhile, in the ‘Beautiful Great Game’, it’s extra time and penalties, medals and champagne for some, and tears for others.

Iran remains defiant. Trump says he has “total control” of and “will keep” Hormuz. He’s hoping the UAE can shuttle vastly more refined product through Hormuz under the radar than it already is, as Axios flags, ‘Diesel desperation is mounting globally.’ Trump is also hoping Tehran will crumble in the face of 300% inflation, as the US blockade really is seeing import costs rise 4x in coming only by land. Over the longer term, a popular revolt can’t be ruled out – but until then that threat looms in many places.

In the US, despite a narrow defeat in the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary, the Democratic Socialist Alliance is rising to threaten to do to the Democratic Part what MAGA has done to the Republicans. Even the Wall Street Journal has noticed the rise of the pro-communist Hasan Piker.

The UK today sees a by-election where Reform UK leader Farage likely trounces Count Binface, a comedian wearing a trash can/rubbish bin on his head. While many in London and Manchester may think this mocks a right-wing populist feuding with much further-right figures, in a manner also seen in the US, The Times’ take is that Farage will return to Parliament in a Trumpian style that will further shake established British political norms.

A poll for the German state election in Saxony-Anhalt in four weeks shows the far-right AfD at 43%, Chancellor Merz's CDU 23%, the Left party 13%, the SPD 7%, the Greens 5%, the minimum to enter the parliament, and the far-left BSW and pro-business FDP 4% and 2%, respectively. In short, the ‘sensible centre’ of CDU, SPD, FPD, and Greens cannot govern in any possible combination, and perhaps nobody can.

The looming 2027 French presidential election holds the threat of far-right Le Pen meeting far-left Melenchon in the final round, where the former perhaps offers markets the relatively smaller shock given the latter has recently talked about outright cancelling French government debt.

Helpfully(?), the FT today asks, ‘Why must a socialist also be woke?’ arguing, “If the left could separate economics from culture, capitalism would have more to fear.” Yet elsewhere it notes the Boston Fed’s Collins saying poorer Americans are struggling to make ends meet while backing a rate hike if inflation remains hot that will hurt them too. ‘Why must capitalism not wake up?’ is a key question we ignore in assuming how we’ve played the game until now will still work ahead.  

Don’t think this is just a Western issue. India has been plagued with angry youth protests called ‘The Cockroach Party’; South Korea’s governing DPK is struggling with young voters furious about unaffordable housing and the need to gamble in the volatile stock market to make ends meet.

Unfortunately, it isn’t only Hormuz to resolve. The Wall Street Journal underlines that ‘War Is Squeezing Another Global Chokepoint: The Black Sea’, where Russia is ramping up attacks on grain shipments while Ukraine has been striking oil tankers. That war and the one in the Middle East are also conflating in the Caspian Sea, where Ukraine has struck Russian Iran-bound cargoes, which saw Iran contemplate an attack on Ukraine in response.

Moreover, Putin is reportedly now considering retaliatory seizures of European ships world-wide after his shadow fleet has been interdicted by them. That could require a firm, expensive, and risky response.

Eurovision banning countries in an “armed conflict” or a “sensitive geopolitical situation” from hosting its song contest will not suffice: Russia is already banned, so this is likely aimed at Israel, but also covers Ukraine – and could the recent border Spain-Morocco border issue count too?

Indeed, much more is needed in extra time. A belated Establishment recognition that free trade is not appropriate policy in a zero-sum, geopolitical, neo-mercantilist world disorder requires countries to ask, “What is GDP *for*?” That then creates a cascading stack of follow-on questions, including “*Who* is GDP for?”

Even if we drop free trade, nobody is going to buy into a neo-mercantilism that makes people feel even worse off. Countries will therefore have to find ways to protect themselves and make people feel better off.

Yes, there is the ‘inflationary impact of tariffs.’ However, that kneejerk retort overlooks that neo-mercantilism can generate a supply-side response that lowers prices; and it sees the relative GDP share of consumption decline vs. that of investment and exports while consumer spending can still grow significantly in real terms – it did in China for many years, for example.

The Beautiful Great Game will therefore require new strategies and tactics. Old ones will need to be substituted – and some will be sent off. Space precludes a more detailed breakdown of what this is likely to entail ahead, but as underlined years ago, it involves structural changes to how the government, central banks, businesses, markets, and even society operate.

As the latest examples, the US is burning regulations like the Biden-era reporting requirement for US businesses; the US Army has just opened its testing ranges to private industry for the first time; and UK PM Burnham is talking about shaking up what the current vape-shops-and-Turkish-barbers high streets look like with differential local tax rates for various kinds of businesses. Moreover, the US Treasury has bailed out Argentina and intervened to help Japan – the latter to limited impact until the BOJ wakes up, which could trigger a tsunami for Japanese insurers and the Yen carry trade, requiring even greater US involvement; and, of course, the Fed is being restructured under Warsh and will almost inevitably work more closely with the Treasury.

There will be penalties: the US just sold 10-year debt at 4.68%, the highest such yield since the GFC. If that is a problem for the US, imagine what it means for a global system built on its back.

There will be winners’ medals and champagne: the FT today notes, ‘Wall Street giants bet Nvidia’s AI chips will defy the laws of finance’, where “Private capital firms are wagering that the crucial hardware will hold its value for years to come.”

There will also be tears. AI volatility and recent ‘permanent underclass’ fears aside, AI is such a national-security issue that it’s convenient that the private-sector is prepared to fund so many schemes exceeding the cost of the Manhattan Project, saving the state the expense, in the aim of… massive profits(?); but it’s the government --and military-- that will likely want the fruits at the end, and cheaply.

That realpolitik power dynamic is a key neo-mercantilism rule you wouldn’t want to get offside of.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 10:25
Tyler Durden

Palantir, Flock, & Data Centers: The Battle Dividing The Right

Zero Rss
2 days 3 hours ago
Palantir, Flock, & Data Centers: The Battle Dividing The Right

The political right spent much of the last decade united against Big Tech, government surveillance, and the unprecedented expansion of state power during COVID. But the rise of artificial intelligence has brought with it an urgent need for data centers, and firms like Palantir and Flock are providing government with increasingly sophisticated tools for mass-surveillance… severing the coalition that once simultaneously maintained the slogans “back the blue” and “don’t tread on me”.

7pm ET on the ZH home/X feed.

Tonight, ZeroHedge Debates takes on the emerging fault line: Is America's technological revolution essential to national renewal, or are conservatives embracing the very surveillance infrastructure they once feared?

Joining us are InfoWars host Harrison Smith and Jordan Schachtel, writer at dossier.today, two figures who once found themselves firmly aligned against the COVID-era regime.

At the center of the dispute are three issues: Palantir, data centers, and Flock surveillance cameras.

Schachtel calls Palantir “an exceptional American company” and argues that Flock is simply another tool for police to catch criminals… so if you opposed “defund the police”, then you ought to support Flock. 

Palantir is an exceptional American company. Benjamin Netanyahu is a great statesman of our time. Data centers are the heart of American technological infrastructure. Flock cameras are essential to city policing. Covid was a scam turned global hysteria, not a lab leak. Elon Musk… pic.twitter.com/1Wikabypui

— Jordan Schachtel (@JordanSchachtel) July 22, 2026

Smith on the other hand… thinks they’re just gonna f***ing kill us:

They are going to try to kill you. https://t.co/w8SFrVCe00

— Harrison H. Smith ✞ (@HarrisonHSmith) August 4, 2026

“Us” being people deemed a threat to the State, which could extend to all gun owners if the Dems take power

They want to revitalize the American heartland but NOT through tens of millions in data center revenue that saves towns.

They want to make the cities safe but NOT through Flock systems that dramatically reduce crime.

It's always easier to do nothing at all and maintain the…

— Jordan Schachtel (@JordanSchachtel) August 9, 2026

President Trump recently made remarks inline with Schachtel that data centers have the potential to be a huge economic boon for the United States economy. Smith, however, does not see the tangible benefits:

Can someone tell me how a data center will improve the lives of Americans?

Explain to me the benefits that we will receive worth trillions of dollars, billions of gallons of fresh water, millions of acres of farm land, and more energy than our biggest cities.

Someone explain. pic.twitter.com/P3wkP9crhk

— Harrison H. Smith ✞ (@HarrisonHSmith) April 27, 2026

Regardless of which camp you’re in, tune in this evening on the ZeroHedge homepage and X feed at 7pm ET tonight for the showdown.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 10:10
Tyler Durden

USC, UCLA football staring at astronomical travel in 2026

NY Post
2 days 3 hours ago
There’s one national ranking that USC and UCLA football are almost guaranteed to finish in the top 20 every year now – miles traveled. That’s the case again in 2026. USC will rank No. 8 among the 138 Football Bowl Subdivision teams with a whopping 16,290 round-trip miles for its five road games, according to...
Ben Bolch

Watch the moment Trump reportedly snuck off Air Force One in catering truck

NY Post
2 days 3 hours ago
President Trump was secretly moved off Air Force One in an airport catering truck and flown out of Turkey aboard a smaller military aircraft as part of an elaborate security operation prompted by a reported Iranian threat. The traditional Air Force One departed as a decoy before Trump rejoined his entourage at a U.S. air...
New York Post Video

Dowd: US Disabilities Hit An All-Time High Of 37 Million In July: UP 23% Since Feb 2021

Zero Rss
2 days 3 hours ago
Dowd: US Disabilities Hit An All-Time High Of 37 Million In July: UP 23% Since Feb 2021

Authored by Ed Dowd via Beyond The Narrative,

The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data is out, and the number of Americans ages 16 and over reporting a disability has hit a new all-time high of roughly 37 million. As of July 2026, the Current Population Survey series sits at 37,029,000. That's not a rounding error or a seasonal blip. It's the continuation of a trend that broke higher more than five years ago and has refused to mean-revert.

I've been tracking this series since early in the COVID era. The charts have been public for years on the Phinance Technologies site and in repeated threads on X. Month after month the total population with a disability grinds higher. From the pre-2020 plateau into early 2021 the numbers were relatively stable. Then something changed.

February 2021 marks the clear inflection. The rate of increase shifted to a new, steeper trajectory, a 3-to-4 sigma departure from the prior trend. In the years since, the survey has added seven million people. Growth of that magnitude in a mature population is not normal aging, not "long COVID" in isolation, and not some gradual sociological shift. It was sudden. It has persisted. And it continues to be treated as background noise by the same public health authorities who spent years obsessed with every other metric.

Let me address the predictable objections, because they surface every time these numbers are posted. First: "It's just fraud. People are gaming disability benefits." That claim collapses under basic scrutiny of the data source. This is not Social Security Disability Insurance claims. It is not SSDI awards, which lag, require medical determinations, and are subject to administrative backlogs and incentive effects. This is the Current Population Survey, the same monthly household survey that produces the unemployment rate and labor-force participation numbers. Roughly 60,000 households are contacted each month. Six simple questions are asked about serious difficulty hearing, seeing, concentrating/remembering/making decisions, walking or climbing stairs, dressing or bathing, and doing errands alone. Any "yes" classifies the person as having a disability for statistical purposes.

I laid this out in detail years ago in threads that are still easy to find. The series is real-time, not claims-driven, and has nothing to do with benefit eligibility. The questions have been consistent since 2008. Response patterns do not suddenly invent millions of new disabled respondents because the political winds shifted. When the same survey that markets, banks, and the Federal Reserve rely upon for labor-market signals produces a multi-year, multi-sigma break in disability prevalence, the responsible reaction is investigation, not dismissal.

Second: "It's illegal aliens flooding the numbers." This one is equally weak. Undocumented immigrants have long been known to under-respond or avoid government surveys altogether out of fear of detection, deportation risk, or general distrust of authorities. They are not lining up to answer detailed questions about household members' health limitations over the phone or in person. If anything, the survey systematically undercounts this population relative to reality. The sharp, sustained rise in reported disability began in February 2021, well before the largest recent surges in border encounters, and has continued in a manner inconsistent with simple demographic inflows. The data do not support the claim that the disability spike is an artifact of illegal immigration.

Public health agencies and the media have largely ignored the signal. There has been no serious, transparent inquiry into why the disability rate changed slope so sharply in early 2021 and has remained elevated. Temporary explanations such as COVID itself, lockdowns, mental-health effects of isolation all fail the timing and magnitude tests. The virus was already circulating in 2020 without producing this sustained break. The sharpest acceleration aligned with the mass rollout and subsequent workplace mandates. Correlation is not causation; we are constantly reminded. Fair enough, but when a novel medical intervention is administered to hundreds of millions of working-age adults on an accelerated timeline, and the independent, high-frequency survey of population health then records a multi-sigma regime change precisely then, the burden of proof shifts. Authorities who spent years demanding every other correlation be investigated suddenly lose interest.

The economic implications are not abstract. More than 37 million people reporting disability means a permanently larger share of the population facing barriers to full participation. Labor-force participation among the disabled remains far lower than among those without disability. Employers face higher absence rates and higher costs. Insurance pools absorb elevated claims. The fiscal pressure on entitlement programs grows even if this particular survey is not the claims pipeline. All of it is occurring against a backdrop of demographic aging that was already expected to raise disability prevalence gradually but not at the abrupt rate observed since early 2021.

I have posted the charts for years: total population 16+, the civilian labor force subset, men, women, employed versus not. The pattern is consistent. Rate-of-change moderation appears occasionally, then another leg higher. The February 2021 inflection remains the defining feature. A 3-to-4 sigma shift in trend is not something serious analysts discard. It is the kind of signal that, in any other domain...markets, epidemiology, engineering...would trigger immediate forensic review.

Health authorities have chosen another path. The data continues to accumulate. The total population survey keeps printing higher numbers. The questions asked of households have not changed. The methodology is the same one used for the official employment statistics that move markets every month. Yet the disability series is treated as an inconvenience rather than a red flag.

The conclusion from the data is straightforward. The timing, the magnitude, the concentration among the previously healthy working age population, and the failure of alternative explanations all point to the COVID vaccine campaign as one of the primary driver of the excess disability. That is the assessment I have maintained as the numbers have updated. Ignoring a sustained, multi-sigma break in a core government survey does not make the break disappear. It only guarantees that the consequences continue to compound while institutions look the other way.

The July 2026 print at 37 million is simply the latest confirmation. The trend that began in February 2021 has not been explained by health authorities, has not been investigated with appropriate rigor, and has not been reversed. Until that changes, the data will keep speaking whether anyone in authority cares to listen or not.

"Hear this, you foolish and senseless people, who have eyes but do not see, who have ears but do not hear." Jeremiah 5:21

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 09:50
Tyler Durden

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