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Futures Slide After Bond Yields, Oil Prices Jump Around The Globe

Futures are lower, but off their overnight lows as markets focus on soaring global yields after US/Iran talk progress remains stalled (but at least armed hostilities did not resume contrary to some speculation). Yields also spiked on rising oil prices, concerns of an extra budget in Japan and continued political chaos in the UK. As of 7:00am ET, S&P futures are -0.5%, while Nasdaq futures drop 0.3%; semis are bid, Mag7 are mostly lower ex-NVDA which reports earnings this week. Semis / AI are the bullish story pre-mkt with most names flat to down with the market expressing a slight preference for Defensives over Cyclicals. In other news, US-China will set up a trade/investment board, and China will increase Ag purchases from the US. Bond yields are flat to +1bp with the 10Y at 4.60% after last week's meltup;Japan’s 30-year yield surged as much as 20 basis points before paring most of the move on what may have been another round of BOJ intervention. Treasuries and European bonds were little changed, while the dollar was set to snap a five-day run of wins as it reverses overnight gains. In commodities, Energy is leading but crude prices have cut their gains: Brent trades around $11 after Trump warned that the “clock is ticking” for Iran to reach a deal that will end the war. Metals are weaker and Ags are bid. Today's macro data focus is on TIC, housing price index, and NY Fed activity indicator. 

In premarket trading, Nvidia is the only Mag 7 member rising: the $6 trillion semiconductor giant is slated to report first quarter results on Wednesday (Nvidia +0.8%, Alphabet -0.6%, Microsoft -0.6%, Apple -0.8%, Meta -0.9%, Amazon -1%, Tesla -1.1%)

• Shares in UnitedHealth (UNH) fall 5.3% after Berkshire Hathaway exited its stake in the health insurer. The conglomerate also disclosed that it amassed a $2.6 billion stake in Delta Air Lines (DAL), boosting the carrier’s shares by 2.4%.
• EchoStar (SATS), Rocket Lab (RKLB) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) rise as billionaire Elon Musk said he’s back in Texas working on plans for an initial public offering of SpaceX.
• Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) falls 10% after the drugmaker’s phase 3 data for fianlimab in metastatic melanoma fell short of expectations. Citi downgraded its rating on the stock following the “disappointing” trial update.

The standoff in the Middle East shows no signs of easing after more than two months, puncturing an AI-driven rally that has pushed global stocks to record highs. Over the weekend, Trump said the “clock is ticking” for Iran to reach a deal, while G7 finance chiefs’ two-day meeting in Paris starts today, focusing on mounting imbalances and rare earths. Meanwhile, bond yields have climbed to levels seen decades ago on fears that central banks will lift interest rates and governments will ramp up borrowing to cushion the blow from rising energy prices. Japan’s 30-year yield surged as much as 20 basis points before paring most of the move.

“Bonds were more nervous about the inflation picture and the equity market was comforted and encouraged by the very strong earnings and AI-led optimism,” said Willem Sels, global chief investment officer at HSBC Private Bank. “What you now have is a bit of a catch-up movement in the equity market, a bit of an exhaustion of the momentum.”

As a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran extends past 40 days and a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains elusive, President Donald Trump expressed frustration with Tehran and told it the “clock is ticking.” Earlier, drones targeted a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates.

Elsewhere, at a time when markets expect the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh to hike rates as soon as December, minutes from last month’s meeting due for release Wednesday will give investors clues about policymakers’ thinking. “The absence of a near-term bullish catalyst can continue to pressure bonds, with spillover effects to exuberant equities,” said Laura Cooper, global investment strategist and head of macro at Nuveen. “Signs of conflict de-escalation are likely needed to assuage jittery markets.” 

Ed Yardeni wrote that the Fed needed to catch up with bond markets or risk losing control of borrowing costs. If the Fed fails to remove its easing bias, “investors will conclude that the central bank is falling behind the inflation curve and will demand a higher inflation risk premium,” Yardeni wrote. “We expect the Fed to hold rates unchanged at the June meeting and shift to a tightening policy stance.”

Meanwhile, the higher yields rise, the more bullish Wall Street strategists turn. Six out of the 21 strategists polled by Bloomberg have raised their target for the S&P 500 over the past month. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson retains high conviction of an earnings recovery and broadening thesis, while noting the 10-year yield at the critical 4.50% threshold could be more of a “noticeable headwind” for equity multiples.

Bloomberg News interviewed 32 investment managers across the US, Asia and Europe who were overwhelmingly bullish, with 80% expecting equities to outperform other asset classes over the next three to six months. The top investment choice for about half of these buy-side professionals is megacap tech and AI stocks. Most investors interviewed pointed to the yield on 30-year Treasuries holding sustainably above 5% as the biggest threat to stocks. Perhaps they have been reading Michael Hartnett who has repeatedly said 5% on the 30Y is the "door to doom."

And while the tech-fueled stock rally is looking bubble-like to some investors, timing the pop is tough. Some are turning to exotic options that better protect against an eventual slump. Single-stock volatility — especially in parts of the tech sector such as semiconductors — far outpace relatively mild increases in indexes. 

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In Europe, consumer and auto shares drove a 0.4% decline in the Stoxx 600, although stocks have trimmed some early declines Monday as last week’s selloff in bonds eased and energy shares outperformed.  Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Technoprobe shares rise as much as 7.7% to a record high, extending last week’s results-driven gains after an upgrade for the chip-testing equipment maker from Bank of America, which lifted its target price to a Street-high of €38
• Sonova shares rise as much as 4.4%, the biggest gainer in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index, after the Swiss hearing-aid maker’s full-year adjusted Ebita beat the average analyst estimate
• FLSmidth gains as much as 5.3%, the most since April 8, after Nordea and Danske Bank upgraded their views on the Danish industrial equipment maker to buy from hold, with Nordea quoting a positive risk/reward profile
• Publicis shares climb as much as 5.8% on Monday after the advertising agency increased its earnings growth targets for the next two years, following a $2.2 billion deal to buy US-based data collaboration platform LiveRamp
• Draegerwerk shares rise as much as 4.7%, rebounding from a four-month low, after the medical and safety equipment maker was upgraded
• Deutsche Boerse shares outperformed Monday after a regulatory filing showed Chris Hohn’s activist hedge fund TCI Fund Management has increased its voting rights in the German market operator to 5.15%
• Smart Eye rises as much as 12%, the most since November, after the Swedish eye-tracking technology company reported what DNB Carnegie called a “solid” set of results, with Ebitda showing a “clear improvement”
• Ipsen shares drop as much as 5.6%, the most since July last year, following the French biopharma company’s trial data for its experimental frown-lines treatment corabotase
• Future shares slide as much as 10% after Stifel downgrades the publisher to hold from buy, saying it will take time for the firm to find new ways to monetize its content, as new AI tools threaten the search market
• Alleima falls as much as 7.5%, the most since January, after Swedish business daily Dagens Industri recommended in a column that readers sell shares in the specialty steels group, flagging a weakening order book and rising short interest
• Advanced Medical Solutions shares drop as much as 24%, the most since September 2023, after TA Associates confirmed late on Friday that it won’t make an offer for the London-listed firm

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell for a second session, as stalled progress on ending the Iran war and higher oil prices intensified concerns about inflation and economic growth. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.4%, before paring losses. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Toyota Motor Corp. and Mitsubishi Corp. were among the biggest contributors to the losses. Benchmarks in Indonesia, Hong Kong and Australia all fell over 1%. Bucking the trend, South Korean stocks reversed losses of as much as 4.7%, as optimism over progress in Samsung Electronics Co.’s labor talks helped offset pressure from rising bond yields. Behind the global debt selloff and stock market weakness was a third consecutive day of oil price gains, after President Donald Trump renewed pressure on Iran to resolve the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Following the recent rally driven by optimism about artificial intelligence, equities investors are now shifting their attention back to the risk of worsening inflation. Separately, Chinese shares fell after data showed the country’s economic growth slowed across the board in April. 

In FX, The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1%, while the pound takes top spot among G-10 currencies, rising 0.4% against the greenback. The yen is lagging.

In rates, treasuries erased an earlier drop, leaving US 10-year yields flat at 4.60%. US yields are cheaper by 1bp to 2bp across the curve with spreads trading broadly within a basis point of Friday close. US 10-year yields trade around 4.6% with gilts outperforming by around 3bp in the sector. Bunds are steady, while gilts are outperforming, with UK 10-year yields down 3 bps to 5.14% as UK gilts steadied after last week’s sharp selloff.  During Asia session, Japan’s 30-year yield surged as much as 20 basis points before paring most of the move as inflation fears continue to ripple through global bond market. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of names. Estimates from dealers for this week point to about $40 billion in bond sales. Treasury auctions this week include $16 billion 20-year bonds (Wednesday) and $19 billion 10-year TIPS reopening (Thursday)/

In commodities, Brent crude futures pulled back from their overnight highs to trade around $110 a barrel, helping arrest a selloff in global government bonds.

Economic data slate includes May New York Fed services business activity (8:30am), May NAHB housing market index (10am) and March TIC flows (4pm). Fed speaker slate empty for the session

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.4%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
• DAX +0.2%
• CAC 40 -0.7%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.6%
• VIX +0.6 points at 19
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1201.01
• euro +0.1% at $1.1639
• WTI crude +1.1% at $106.54/barrel

Top Overnight News

• President Trump told Axios in a phone call that "the clock is ticking" for Iran and warned that if the Iranian regime doesn't come with a better offer for a deal, "they are going to get hit much harder." Axios
• Trump declined to give a specific deadline for negotiations with Iran and will hold a Situation Room meeting with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss possible options for military action, while he spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu about the situation in Iran, according to Axios. Trump also stated that he still thinks Iran wants a deal and he is waiting for an updated Iranian proposal, which he hopes will be better than the prior offer. Furthermore, Axios’s Ravid reported that Trump threatened that attacks would resume with greater intensity if the Iranian regime does not come up with a better proposal, while Channel 12’s Kraus posted that President Trump said in a phone call that he thinks the Iranians should be afraid of what’s going on right now.
• China’s industrial output and retail sales growth slowed sharply last month while investment dropped as policymakers warned that geopolitical conflicts were creating a “severe” global economic environment. Industrial production rose 4.1 per cent in April from a year earlier, official data showed on Monday. FT
• Chinese artificial intelligence groups have moved ahead of US rivals in video generation, a key battleground in generative AI in which there is rapid uptake across advertising, ecommerce and entertainment. FT
• China agreed to buy at least $17 billion of farm products annually through 2028 and establish trade and investment boards, the US announced. Earlier, Beijing said the two countries will also reduce tariffs on certain goods. BBG
• Japan's government is likely to issue fresh debt as part of funding for a planned extra budget to cushion the economic blow from the Middle East war. Any additional debt issuance would further strain Japan's ‌already worsening finances and may accelerate rises in long-term interest rates. RTRS
• Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni asked the European Commission to extend greater latitude within European Union budget rules to measures aimed at tackling rising energy costs. Italy’s government is seeking to include investments and extraordinary measures to address the energy crisis in the so-called national safeguard clause. BBG
• NextEra is said to be in talks to buy Dominion in a mostly stock deal valuing the utility at about $66 billion. BBG
• Anthropic agreed to brief members of the Financial Stability Board on its AI model Mythos. FT
• Over 60 allies of US President Trump have urged him to test and approve the most powerful AI models before its released: Axios 
• Central banks’ gold purchases are expected to pick up to average 60 tons a month over 2026. We maintain a bullish target for prices to climb to $5,400 an ounce by the end of the year. Goldman
• Trump told Fortune he thinks US could sell Intel (INTC) shares slowly over time without tanking the stock market. He added that "Intel should be the biggest company in the world right now... If I had been president when all these companies started sending their chips in from China, I would have put a tariff on that would have protected Intel."

Iran Headlines

• US President Trump warned on Truth Social that the clock is ticking for Iran and that they better get moving fast, or there won’t be anything left for them, and that time is of the essence.
• US President Trump declined to give a specific deadline for negotiations with Iran and will hold a Situation Room meeting with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss possible options for military action, while he spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu about the situation in Iran, according to Axios. Trump also stated that he still thinks Iran wants a deal and he is waiting for an updated Iranian proposal, which he hopes will be better than the prior offer. Furthermore, Axios’s Ravid reported that Trump threatened that attacks would resume with greater intensity if the Iranian regime does not come up with a better proposal, while Channel 12’s Kraus posted that President Trump said in a phone call that he thinks the Iranians should be afraid of what’s going on right now.
• Pakistan shared revised Iranian proposal to end the war with the US on Sunday night, according to Pakistani sources. The course added that "we don't have much time", adding that both countries "keep changing their goalposts".
• Western sources say the new Iranian proposal includes a commitment of unclear value not to produce nuclear weapons but no mention of uranium or Hormuz, according to Journalist Segal.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said talks with the US continue through Pakistani mediation. The spokesperson added that they have made great efforts for safe movement and protection of the Strait of Hormuz and are in constant contact with Oman to develop a mechanism. On Uranium, Baghaei said Tehran does not need any party to recognize its right to uranium enrichment and will not discuss during negotiations with the US.
• Iranian Defence Ministry spokesman Brigadier General Reza Talaei-Nik warned of a regretful response to enemies and said that Iranian armed forces are fully prepared to confront any potential attack by the US and Israeli regime, according to IRNA.
• Iranian Major General Rezaei said Iran is serious about diplomacy and negotiations, but is more serious about dealing with the aggressor, while he added that the US must now prove its good intentions and that Iranian armed forces are on the trigger as diplomatic efforts continue.
• Iran said transit through the Strait of Hormuz would flow again once its conflict with the US and Israel is over, although the sides remain far from resolving their differences, according to Bloomberg. In relevant news, three cargo-empty, US-sanctioned tankers reportedly slipped through the US naval blockade in recent days, according to TankerTrackers.com.
• Israel said it carried out a Gaza strike targeting the de facto head of Hamas's armed wing, while Israel also conducted an airstrike on the towns of Froun, Kfar Hounah and Zawtar al-Sharqiya in southern Lebanon. Furthermore, an Israeli air strike targeted Baalbek, Lebanon and killed an Islamic Jihad commander and his daughter.
• UAE officials said a drone attack set off a fire near the UAE’s nuclear power station, while it was still investigating the source of the attack.
• Saudi Defence Ministry said it intercepted three drones launched from Iraq after entering the kingdom’s airspace.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly in the red after last Friday's losses on Wall St, and with risk sentiment sapped as oil prices and yields extended higher after US President Trump warned the clock was ticking on Iran, heading into a meeting on Tuesday with his national security team to discuss possible options for military action, while participants in the region also digest disappointing Chinese activity data. ASX 200 was dragged lower amid losses across nearly all sectors aside from energy, and with sentiment not helped by disappointing data from Australia's largest trading partner. Nikkei 225 resumed its pullback from last week's record highs amid higher oil prices and the anticipation of the BoJ to resume rate normalisation next month. KOSPI was volatile as the index initially suffered heavy losses and the Korea Exchange triggered a sidecar after KOSPI 200 futures dropped 5.0% with jitters seen as Samsung Electronics faces an 18-day strike involving nearly 45,000 of Samsung’s unionised workers starting on May 21st. The index then staged a firm rebound alongside Samsung shares after the union said it would engage in government-mediated pay talks, and a court was said to partially accept an injunction request against the union's planned strike, although the union later announced that it would proceed with the strike as planned. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured following the disappointing activity data in which Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Fixed Assets Ex-Rural Investment all missed forecasts, with the latter showing a surprise contraction, while the stats bureau noted the external situation is complex and that China's economic foundation still needs to be consolidated.

Top Asian news

• China State Council said it will leverage national venture capital guidance fund to increase support for entrepreneurship in tech innovation.
• Chinese MIIT Minister Li Lecheng said China should upgrade “outdated” industries, and not scrap them, because manufacturing remains the backbone of the economy.
• China’s State Administration for Market Regulation set 34 priorities for this year to support private sector growth, with a focus on fair competition, legal protections and efficient regulation.
• China's stats bureau said the external situation is complex and China's economic foundation still needs to be consolidated, while it added that China is to continue to optimise supply and that the domestic supply-demand imbalance remains prominent. China's stats bureau said China will continue to expand the domestic demand and should implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. Furthermore, it said the international situation remains grim and complicated as of April, and the world economic recovery is facing greater headwinds, as well as stated that the will and capacity of people to spend needs improving.
• Japan is likely to issue fresh debt as part of funding for a planned extra budget to soften the blow from the Middle East conflict, according to sources cited by Reuters. A separate report confirmed that Japanese PM Takaichi was set to announce an extra Japan budget. However, conflicting comments by Japanese Finance Minister Katayama followed, stating that they are not yet at a stage to talk about the specifics of an extra budget.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said they are watching market moves with a high sense of urgency, including long-term rates. No comment on FX intervention.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) opened entirely in the red this morning, given the lack of US-Iran progress, and further punchy rhetoric from President Trump. Over the weekend, he stated that the clock is ticking for Iran, though he declined to give a specific deadline. Since then, bourses have clambered off lows amidst positive geopolitical updates; notably, Iran’s Baghaei suggesting that talks with the US continue through Pakistani mediation. Moreover, Pakistani sources suggested that Pakistan shared a revised Iranian proposal to end the war with the US on Sunday night.  European sectors opened with a clear negative bias, but this picture is now a little more mixed. Energy takes pole position, benefiting from higher underlying crude prices; Media and Utilities complete the top three. At the bottom of the pile reside cyclical sectors, such as Autos and Travel & Leisure. The latter has been pressured by post-earning losses in Ryanair after reporting in-line metrics, but warned that flat fares may put pressure on profits.

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer has decided not to announce a departure timetable unless and until Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election, ITV's Peston reported.
• UK Deputy PM Lammy said PM Starmer will not be announcing a timetable for departure, speaking to Sky News.
• UK PM Starmer was reportedly mulling whether he would bring more government stability by announcing a timetable for his departure and a leadership election, according to ITV.
• Former UK Health Secretary Streeting vowed to stand in any Labour Party leadership contest to oust UK PM Starmer. In relevant news, Streeting said he would battle Manchester Mayor Burnham for the Labour leadership and called for the UK to rejoin the EU, while Burnham played down rejoining the EU.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly to lay out more details in the week ahead regarding proposals to ease bank regulations that were imposed to prevent a repeat of the 2008 GFC.
• Fitch affirmed Germany's sovereign rating at AAA; Outlook Stable, while DBRS maintained Portugal at A (high), Outlook Raised to Positive.

FX

• FX shows a risk-on bias with high-beta outperforming and DXY in the red.
• DXY firmed at the Asia reopen and rose to a 99.40 peak as participants digested US President Trump’s remarks over the weekend, “the clock is ticking for Iran.” However, with Brent crude falling from its USD 112/bbl peak (curr. 110/bbl), the index now trades modestly in the red, a touch above 99.00 where its 50 DMA lies. Nothing notable scheduled today, though the rest of the week sees weekly ADP jobs on Tuesday, FOMC Minutes + NVIDIA earnings Wednesday, Jobless Claims and PMIs Thursday and UoM on Friday.
• GBP is one of the best G10 performers, likely a factor of technical factors than political reprieve with newsflow light heading into the likely June 18th by-election. EUR/GBP reversed from 0.8730, and Cable bounced from 1.33. On domestic politics, PM potential candidates Streeting and Burnham were on the wires talking up the importance of rejoining the EU. On the Fiscal/Consumer front, the Times reported Chancellor Reeves has plans to retain the cut on fuel duty from September amid fuel price concerns, while separately drawing up plans for a targeted intervention on energy bills - both potentially factors helping the Pound today. The week ahead sees Jobs on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday and PSNB on Friday, the former which ING says is expected to be mild because of base effects.
• JPY is the only G10 currency that trades lower against the buck amid: a) a weak 5yr JGB auction, b) reports that the Japanese government is to start compiling a supplementary budget, c) lack of Iran progress, and d) surging energy prices. (See Fixed Income 09:35 BST for more). USD/JPY +0.1%, up a touch despite earlier gains which were capped by the 159 mark.

Central Banks

• BoE's Greene said some of the global economic resilience to the Iran war is due to inventories while second round effects of the energy price shock will not show up for another year. Should not be looking through negative supply shocks.
• BoE's Breeden said the central bank should not be ‘trigger happy’ on rates, while she warned of a hit to business from political uncertainty, according to FT.

Fixed Income

• A bearish start to the week as US President Trump's escalatory language on Iran and the associated energy move, with Brent peaking at USD 112/bbl overnight.
• Amidst this, fixed benchmarks spent the APAC session in the red. Note, JGBs derived pressure from this alongside a weak 5yr outing and reports around the compiling of a supplementary Japanese budget, see 09:35 BST for more details.
• USTs hit a 108-30 trough, a fresh contract low, in the early hours. Since, and particularly after remarks from the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, energy benchmarks have eased off, which has allowed fixed to lift, taking USTs to a 109-08 high with gains of one tick on the session. Today's US docket is quiet, but the week is busy with Nvidia due before the FOMC Minutes and a 20yr auction. From the Minutes, the last with Powell as Chair, BofA expects the account to "reinforce the Fed's recent hawkish tone", showing that Warsh will inherit a Fed with "little appetite to cut".
• Bunds in-fitting with the above, hit a 123.74 base, which is also a new contract low. Given the discussed energy moves, the benchmark has pared much of its 53 ticks of downside and is now lower by a more modest c. 15 ticks, just off a 124.20 peak. Newsflow has been relatively limited, we had remarks from but no move to ECB's Lagarde, who essentially noted that she is watching the yield space. On yields, the German 10yr hit a 3.19% peak overnight, a new high for the year and the highest since 2011's 3.49% best. Furthermore, the energy moves continue to be reflected in near-term policy expectations, with 21bps of ECB tightening implied for June and 75bps by end-2026.
• Gilts opened near-enough flat, as the bearish leads from overnight had already begun to moderate, in addition to the lack of significant weekend development on the fate of PM Starmer. Furthermore, the complex is perhaps deriving some support from a revival of coverage that contenders Burnham and Streeting would like to rejoin the EU at some point; albeit, Burnham did somewhat distance himself from this over the weekend, concerning the upcoming by-election campaigning at least. As it stands, Gilts are holding at highs of 85.53 with gains of c. 25 ticks. A bounce from the 84.96 base this morning, another contract low.
• Japan sells JPY 1.9tln 5yr JGBs; b/c 3.22x (prev. 3.58x), average yield 2.024% (prev. 1.826%), Lowest accepted price 99.85 (prev. 99.84), Weighted average price 99.89 (prev. 99.88), Tail in price 0.05 (prev. 0.04).

Commodities

• Crude futures surged at the start of Asia-Pac trade, with WTI making a new contract high of USD 104.37/bbl while Brent peaked at USD 112.00/bbl. Punchy rhetoric over the weekend by US President Trump, warning Iran that the “clock is ticking” and that “they better get moving, fast, or there won’t be anything left of them" initially spurred the upside in energy prices. However, benchmarks have pulled back as European trade gets underway, with WTI and Brent now trading at the lower end of its USD 101.59-104.37/bbl and USD 109.56-112/bbl range, respectively. More recently, according to Pakistani sources, Pakistan shared a revised Iranian proposal to end the war with the US on Sunday night.
• Spot gold briefly dipped below USD 4,500/oz amid higher energy prices as trade got underway but has since regained the handle and currently trading at the upper end of its USD 4481-4560/oz range. Jewellers in India have reported higher demand for the yellow metal, ahead of the wedding season, after Indian authorities hiked gold import tariffs and then later curbed the amount of gold that can be imported. Silver has also faced restrictions with tightening rules for imports, describing imports as now “restricted” rather than “free”. Spot silver is currently in a USD 73.71-76.76/oz range, consolidating following Friday’s selloff.
• 3M LME Copper has started Monday’s trade on the backfoot, slipping back below USD 13.5k/t and falling closer towards last week’s trough of USD 13.4k/t. China’s growth slowed in April, with investment contracting while retail sales printed essentially flat Y/Y.

Trade/Tariffs

• USTR Greer said President Trump will be presented with options for action on China if US investigations determine that industrial overcapacity is influencing Chinese exports.
• White House released a Fact Sheet on Sunday following last week’s Trump-Xi summit, which stated that China will purchase at least USD 17bln in US agricultural products annually for 2026, 2027 and 2028.
• EU is drawing up plans to force European companies to purchase critical components from at least three different suppliers, in an effort to lower the bloc’s reliance on China, according to FT.
• France wants Stellantis (STLAM IM/STLAP FP) and Renault (RNO FP) to favour local parts suppliers to protect jobs and keep know-how in the region as Europe’s automakers deepen ties with manufacturers from China.
• China flagged that Australian beef imports are approaching the safeguard threshold and are at the 80% of the annual quota, which caps imports at current tariff rates, while additional imports would be subject to 55% tariffs on top of existing tariffs three days after shipments reach 100% of the quota.

Geopolitics (ex Iran)

• Ukraine upped the pressure on Russia with the biggest strike on Moscow in over a year involving dozens of drones on Sunday, according to WSJ.
• Russian drones hit Odessa and damaged residential homes, according to Interfax.
• Ukrainian manufacturers and officials warned the EU’s plan to slash steel imports would hurt Ukraine.
• Intelligence claimed that Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones and recently began discussing plans to use them to attack the US base at Guantanamo Bay, US military vessels and possibly Key West, Florida, according to Axios, which added that the intelligence could become a pretext for US military action and shows the degree to which the Trump administration sees Cuba as a threat.
• Taiwan’s President Lai said on Sunday that Taiwan will never be sacrificed or traded, after US President Trump recently described a planned USD 14bln arms sale to Taipei as a bargaining chip with China.

US Event Calendar

• 8;30am: May New York Fed services business activity
• 10:00am: May NAHB housing market index
• 4:00pm: March TIC flows 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Today is my annual thank you message for voting for the UK in Eurovision. Despite all your support, we finished last for the third time since 2019, and it was the fourth successive year of "nul points" from the public vote. To be fair listening to the song, I was impressed it finished as high as last! The winning song from Bulgaria is perhaps 30-40 years too modern for me but was at least quite catchy!

Moving onto more serious matters, the Iran war is 80 days old as of today, with no obvious end in sight, whilst the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Notably though, the truce and ceasefire period (41 days) has now lasted longer than the initial kinetic phase (39 days). While an end to the ceasefire clearly cannot be ruled out, the fact this stalemate has persisted for so long suggests the US would prefer to avoid that route, given the political and economic consequences—particularly the political ones in an election year. As a result, the tense stalemate continues.
Nevertheless, the fragile nature of the ceasefire was exposed over the weekend when a drone attack caused a fire at an electrical generator at a UAE nuclear facility. Moreover, Trump suggested on Truth Social yesterday: "For Iran, the clock is ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!" Trump and Israel’s PM Netanyahu spoke last night, which could prove to be a key conversation in determining the next stage of the conflict.

For markets, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the prospect of a fresh escalation has pushed oil prices higher this morning. Brent crude is up +1.77% to a two-week high of $111.19/bbl. And it’s clear that investors are pricing in a more protracted conflict, as the 6-month brent future is also up to $92.14/bbl this morning, which would be its highest closing level since the conflict began.
Those oil moves have exacerbated fears about a stagflationary shock, which has pushed global bond yields even higher this morning. For instance, the 10yr Treasury yield (+3.2bps) is now up to 4.63%, its highest level in the last year, whilst the 30yr yield (+3.4bps) is up to 5.15%, which would be another post-2007 high. It’s a similar story in Japan this morning, where the 10yr JGB yield (+4.8bps) is up to 2.75%, a level last seen in 1997, and the 30yr yield (+9.3bps) is up to 4.11%, the highest since that maturity was first issued in 1999. That also follows comments from PM Takaichi, who said she’d asked the finance minister “to consider ways of funding including compiling a supplementary budget”. Indeed, Reuters reported the government was likely to issue fresh debt to fund part of it.

Stagflation fears have continued to hit risk assets as well, with the major equity indices moving lower in Asia this morning. In addition, the latest activity data in China was weaker than expected. Retail sales were only up +0.2% year-on-year in April (vs. +2.0% expected), whilst industrial production was up +4.1% yoy (vs. +6.0% expected). That backdrop has seen equities fall overnight, including the Nikkei (-0.83%), the Hang Seng (-1.35%), the CSI 300 (-0.69%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.22%). That’s been echoed in the US and Europe too, where futures on the S&P 500 (-0.60%) and the DAX (-0.94%) are both lower as well. The only clear exception is South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.45%).

Those overnight declines follow several landmark bond moves in a global rout last week. Admittedly, if you look over the entire conflict, bond yields have moved in lockstep with oil, and Friday doesn’t look too anomalous. However, if you zoom in a bit, then yields have shifted from being broadly in line with the current price of oil to looking a bit high relative to it. That suggests some evidence of a small decoupling on Friday. With these end-of-week moves, 30yr US yields hit their highest level since 2007, 30yr Japanese yields their highest since their introduction in 1999, 30yr gilts reached levels last seen in 1997, and 30yr German yields returned to 2011 levels. You can see more details of the move in the review of last week towards the end. One thing to be aware of for risk assets is the relatively subdued reaction so far in the MOVE (bond volatility) index. This is the bond variable that most closely correlates with risk assets. It is currently around 80 and spent most of the period between early 2022 and early 2024 in a range of 100 to 150, so it remains relatively low so far which limits the impact of the rate shock.

Regardless, the bond move will no doubt be a major topic at the two-day G7 finance ministers’ meeting starting today in Paris. The meeting was billed as an opportunity to discuss global imbalances, such as the US budget deficit, China’s huge trade surplus, and Europe’s lack of investment. That might get a little overtaken by events.

This meeting follows on from last week’s Xi–Trump meeting in Beijing, which can best be characterised after the event, as a “summit lite”. It produced few concrete economic or geopolitical outcomes, with both sides emphasising stability and continued dialogue rather than agreements. Despite market hopes, China offered no assistance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and the US position remained unchanged on Taiwan, semiconductor controls, rare earths and AI cooperation. For markets, the key takeaway was what did not happen: there was no escalation, but also no progress on the issues that matter most to investors.

Another hot topic right now is the UK, where there’s been a lot of political turmoil in the last week. That helped push the 30yr gilt up +21.3bps, which was a clear underperformance, whilst the pound sterling had its worst week against the US dollar since 2024. That came as a route opened for Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham to return to Parliament, because a Labour MP resigned and a by-election will now be held. That’s significant for markets, because Burnham is seen as a contender for the Labour leadership, and he said in September last year that the UK should not be “in hock to the bond markets”. Although he’s since walked back his interpretation of those comments, markets are likely to fear higher fiscal spending with Burnham as PM. So the focus is now on that by-election, which the BBC have reported will be on June 18. Burnham has been cleared by Labour’s ruling NEC to stand as well. However, there’s no guarantee he will win the by-election, as it’s a marginal seat for Labour and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK performed very strongly there at the local elections earlier this month. Much will depend on how aggressively the Green Party contests the seat and splits the left-wing vote.

Looking at the week ahead, Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, with a market capitalisation now of $5.46tn, could well be the main event. Elsewhere, we have the global flash PMIs on Thursday, along with inflation data from Canada tomorrow, the UK on Wednesday, and Japan on Friday. From central banks, the highlight will be the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Those flash PMIs will be important, as they’re one of the first indicators on how the global economy has performed this month, so will be scrutinised for any signs of how the war in Iran is impacting activity and prices.

The US calendar is relatively light, with the NAHB housing market index today expected to remain unchanged at a cyclically low 34, followed by Tuesday’s pending home sales, where a modest +1.0% increase is anticipated (from +1.5% previously). Attention will then turn to Thursday’s April housing activity data, where housing starts are expected to ease to an annualised pace of 1.425mn (from 1.502mn), while permits are projected to tick higher to 1.375mn (from 1.363mn). All estimates are according to our economists.

Beyond housing, Thursday is the key day for macro releases. The weekly initial jobless claims are expected to edge slightly lower to 209k (from 211k). The same day will also bring the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, where our economists expect a pullback to +21.0 (from +26.7), alongside the flash PMIs. In the US, manufacturing is expected to soften marginally to 53.7 (from 54.5), while services are seen ticking up to 51.5 (from 51.0).

In contrast to consumer sentiment—which will see an updated reading of the Michigan survey on Friday (expected at 48.2 versus 49.8 previously)—business surveys have generally remained more resilient despite the energy shock. That said, some indicators have shown rising input costs and lengthening delivery times, developments that could signal renewed inflationary pressure building beneath the surface.
Turning to central bank communications, the Fed speaker slate is relatively limited but still notable. Governor Waller is scheduled to participate in an ECB policy panel tomorrow, alongside comments from Philadelphia Fed President Harker (voter) on the outlook. On Wednesday, Vice Chair Barr will discuss consumer financial health metrics, while the Fed will also publish the minutes from the April FOMC meeting. Richmond Fed President Barkin (non-voter) will follow on Thursday with remarks on the economy, before Governor Waller rounds out the week with a further appearance on Friday.

In Europe, the highlights will include the UK labour market report tomorrow and inflation data on Wednesday. Our UK economist expects headline CPI to slow to 2.98% YoY and core CPI to fall to 2.61% YoY. More detail and forecasts are in the full inflation spotlight note here. The UK will also release the GfK May consumer confidence index and April retail sales on Friday. Other notable European releases include Eurozone consumer confidence on Thursday and Germany’s Ifo survey on Friday.

In Asia, Japan faces a busy week, with key data including Q1 GDP tomorrow and April nationwide CPI on Friday. Our Chief Japan economist expects positive real growth of an annualised 1.3% QoQ for the GDP report and sees core CPI inflation, excluding fresh food, holding at 1.8% YoY, alongside a retreat in core-core inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, to 2.2% (from 2.4% in March). The full week-ahead preview for Japan is available here.

Finally, beyond Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, results are also due from major US retailers, including Walmart, Home Depot, and TJX.
Recapping last week now, the main story was the global bond selloff, with yields hitting new highs in multiple countries. That came as the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked, and Trump said that the US-Iran ceasefire was on “massive life support”, which helped to drive further gains for oil prices. So Brent crude ended the week up +7.87% (+3.35% Friday) at $109.26/bbl. Moreover, those inflation fears were exacerbated by strong CPI and PPI reports from the US, which led to mounting anticipation about a Fed rate hike this year. Indeed, the probability of a hike by the December meeting surged from 6% the previous week to 62% by Friday’s close. And over in Europe, the probability of an ECB hike at the June meeting was up from 79% the previous week to 89% by Friday’s close.

That backdrop led to significant pressure on sovereign bonds. In fact, 10yr Treasury yields were up +23.9bps last week (+11.1bps Friday) to 4.59%, their highest level since May 2025. Meanwhile, the 2yr Treasury yield was up +18.6bps (+5.2bps Friday) to 4.07%, its highest level since February 2025. And the biggest milestone came for 30yr yields, which rose +18.2bps (+8.9bps) to a post-2007 high of 5.12%. Similarly, in Germany 10yr bunds rose +16.2bps (+12.4bps Friday) to 3.17%, their highest level since 2011.

Here in the UK, gilts struggled in particular as the political turmoil showed no sign of easing. Notably, there were multiple ministerial resignations from PM Keir Starmer’s government, and Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham announced he would seek to return to Parliament in a by-election. So 10yr gilt yields rose +26.0bps last week (+17.8bps Friday), closing at a post-2008 high of 5.17%. Meanwhile, the pound weakened -2.24% against the US Dollar, marking its worst weekly performance since 2024.

For equities, there was a relatively stronger performance, with the S&P 500 just about posting a 7th consecutive weekly gain, up +0.13%. That’s its longest run of weekly gains since 2023, even as Friday saw its worst day since March (-1.24%) amidst the rise in bond yields and oil. Non-US equities struggled more clearly, with Europe’s STOXX 600 down -0.85% (-1.48% Friday), whilst Japan’s Nikkei fell -2.08% (-1.99% Friday). Meanwhile, US credit saw a mixed performance, with US IG spreads (-4bps) tightening but HY spreads (+1bps) marginally wider, whilst Euro IG (-2bps) and HY spreads (-14bps) both moved lower.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 07:42

EPA Unwinds Massive Biden-Era Auto Emissions Regulations That Had 2027 Deadline

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (Emphasis ours),

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed a deregulatory action to delay compliance deadlines for Biden-era emission standards, in a bid to make vehicles more affordable for Americans while ensuring greater consumer choice, the agency said in a May 14 statement.

Ford Motor Company's electric F-150 Lightning on the production line at their Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn, Mich., on Sept. 8, 2022. Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images

In March 2024, the Biden-administered EPA issued new rules regarding tailpipe emissions applicable to light-duty and medium-duty vehicles for model years 2027 and beyond. The regulations sought to “significantly reduce” greenhouse gas emissions, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, and hydrocarbons from new light trucks, passenger cars, and larger pickups and vans.

The changes were projected to help tackle what the Biden-era EPA called “climate crisis” and reduce air pollution after the agency set limits on gas emissions. For instance, in passenger cars, the greenhouse gas emission limit was set at 139 grams of carbon dioxide per mile, which should reduce to 73 grams by 2032.

These regulations were expected to bring down carbon dioxide emissions by 7.2 billion tons through 2055, with the EPA saying there would be almost $100 billion in annual net benefits to American citizens, including $62 billion in lower fuel costs and maintenance costs, and $13 billion in public health benefits due to better air quality.

At the time, the EPA said that the emission standards were expected to “accelerate the transition to clean vehicle technologies.”

Between model years 2030–2032, around 30–56 percent of new light-duty vehicles and roughly 20–32 percent of new medium-duty vehicles were projected to be battery-electric vehicles, the document said.

In its May 14 statement, EPA said it was proposing to delay the compliance deadlines for these standards by two more years, until the beginning of model year (MY) 2029, since U.S. citizens have “overwhelmingly rejected” electric vehicles. Moreover, auto manufacturers have lost billions of dollars investing in the production of these vehicles, the agency stated.

The emission standards were “based on faulty assumptions by the Biden Administration that EVs would make up a significant percentage of MY 2027 and beyond fleets, causing the administration to set unrealistic emission standards for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles,” the EPA said.

If the proposal is finalized, it would allow auto companies to continue complying with current standards that “deliver substantial emissions reductions of up to 80 percent, for MY 2027 and MY 2028 vehicles,” according to the agency.

This would allow manufacturers to phase in the new emission standards starting with MY 2029 vehicles, “that better fit consumer demand for fewer EVs.”

The EPA said its proposal is estimated to save $1.7 billion, providing American families with hundreds of dollars in savings per vehicle.

“Freedom is the foundation of this nation, and this includes the freedom to choose the car you drive. The American people have been very clear; they do not want EVs forced upon them,” EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said.

“This proposal aims to return EPA regulations to reality, restoring consumer choice, protecting good-paying American jobs, and strengthening the nation’s global competitiveness” while the agency works to reconsider the emission standards, he said.

Ending EV Investments

In a May 15 statement, consumer advocacy organization Public Citizen criticized the EPA decision, saying that the agency’s proposal will allow automakers to sell polluting cars.

“The decision will not just cost lives; it will cost working-class people more money in medical bills, more missed days of work, and more years chained to volatile gas prices,” said Deanna Noel, deputy director with the organization’s Climate Program.

“Working families are already stretched thin. Everything from groceries to home insurance to gas is getting more expensive, with no end in sight. Delaying commonsense emissions standards will only make communities sicker and send costs higher.”

In its recent statement, the EPA said that major auto manufacturers were already cutting down their electric vehicle fleets and related developments.

For instance, in January, General Motors announced a $6 billion write-down on its electric line. The company also canceled contracts with EV battery suppliers. Stellantis said it would cut its entire plug-in EV lineup for this year.

In December, Ford announced the cancellation of its flagship electric truck, the F-150 Lightning, after losing around $13 billion on its electric vehicle line since 2023.

The corporate decisions were taken after President Donald Trump ended a $7,500 tax credit for the purchase of electric vehicles in September, which had affected sales of these vehicles.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, which immediately followed the end of the tax credit, EVs made up only 5.8 percent of new cars sold in the United States, down from 10.5 percent in the third quarter, according to data from vehicle valuation company Kelley Blue Book.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 07:20

Samsung, Union Resume Talks After Labor Action Scare; Goldman Says "Korea: Buy"

Downward momentum in South Korean stocks was halted on Monday as optimism returned to Samsung Electronics after the company and its union reopened talks to resolve contract disputes and avert a strike that could begin as soon as Thursday.

Bloomberg reported that the union's leader would "sincerely engage" with Samsung executives. The world's most important memory chip maker was also granted several requests by a Korean court, including orders to block the union from occupying company facilities.

The union is still threatening an 18-day walkout beginning Thursday unless its contract demands are met, but both sides signaled earlier today a willingness to resolve the labor dispute.

On Saturday, Samsung also made a concession by replacing its lead negotiator, while Prime Minister Kim Min-seok and Chairman Jay Y. Lee publicly urged compromise.

Shares of Samsung in South Korea closed up 3.5%, helping lift the country's main equity index, KOSPI, after it had slid late last week on labor action fears.

Goldman analyst Christy Park told clients, "By now, one would know: any correction on Hynix & Samsung = Buy (*note Hynix shares corrected >1% only 5x times since April out of 30+ sessions in which at ALL times regained more than its losses immediately within the following 1~3 days)."

Park listed the catalysts for Samsung & Hynix:

• Resolution to the labor union strike removing overhang (Samsung; co replaced its entire negotiation team)

• Continued conventional memory pricing strength acting as a tailwind (Samsung has higher exposure vs. Hynix) 2027 HBM pricing upside given HBM now sold at a discount vs. conventional DRAM (both Samsung & Hynix)

• Upside in shareholder return given the substantial growth in FCF (Samsung: 2024-2026 shareholder return policy of paying back 50% of this)

• Potential ADR listing of Kioxia could be positive for Hynix sentiment (as Hynix owns a meaningful stake in Kioxia through a consortium) ADR listing of SK HYNIX (anticipated in July)

• We see Agentic AI driving a 24x jump in token consumption by 2030 (120 quadrillion tokens per month) (both Samsung & Hynix)

In a separate note, Tom Kang, director at Counterpoint Research, said, "There is a clear need for both sides to reach an agreement," adding that both sides have relatively little experience because Samsung has historically lacked a strong union culture.

"The gap may seem large, but the issues are workable," Kang said. "I believe the differences can be resolved without a strike."

Taiwan-based market intelligence and research firm TrendForce pointed out:

Samsung's strike is set to formally begin on May 21. Because the company's semiconductor fabs are already highly automated, the impact on production is expected to be limited.

However, there will likely be noticeable disruptions to packaging and logistics, R&D and design, and customer relations. In terms of unionization, about half of all employees across the Samsung Group are union members, most of whom work in the semiconductor division. Internally, management has already extended an olive branch to the DRAM division, but has not yet reached an agreement with union members in the Foundry and LSI divisions.

Samsung’s strike is set to formally begin on May 21. Because the company’s semiconductor fabs are already highly automated, the impact on production is expected to be limited. However, there will likely be noticeable disruptions to packaging and logistics, R&D and design, as well… https://t.co/l2ibgeXEIL

— TrendForce (@trendforce) May 15, 2026

Professional subscribers can read the full "[GS] KOREA: Buy" here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 06:55

Canada Rethinks Selling Its Crown Jewel Pipeline

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

• The Canadian federal government may reconsider a plan to privatize the Trans Mountain oil pipeline.

• Since the expanded TMX pipeline launched in 2024, exports to Asia—especially China—have surged, with up to 70% of shipments from British Columbia heading to Asian buyers by late 2025.

• Officials now see TMX as a highly profitable “strategically important asset,” with potential for further expansion

The Canadian federal government may reconsider a plan to privatize the Trans Mountain oil pipeline and keep it state-owned amid a surge in appetite for Canadian crude to replace lost Middle Eastern barrels.

“The prior narrative had been that this should be returning to private hands,” the head of the government entity that owns Trans Mountain said at an event this week, as quoted by the Financial Post.

“That was in a different market and that was in a different time,” Elizabeth Wademan also said.

Indeed, this is a very different market from what it was when the government in Ottawa had to step in and buy Trans Mountain from Kinder Morgan, which quit the project under relentless pressure from climate activists who used environmental regulations to strangle the expansion project. The price tag for the nationalization deal, which took place in 2018, was about $3.3 billion, and the Trudeau government quickly signaled it would start looking for buyers as soon as possible.

By 2024, the cost of the pipeline expansion project had swelled to about $23 billion, but the project, somewhat surprisingly, was completed, and the expanded pipeline launched in May of that year, running at three times its original capacity or a total of 890,000 barrels daily.

The destination for these barrels was the vast Asian market, as a way to diversify away from the U.S., which has for decades been pretty much the only foreign market for Canadian crude—and an export conduit, with the oil transported from Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast, and from there, to markets overseas. With the new TMX, Canadian crude producers got a new, more convenient channel to Asian energy buyers.

It did not take long for the effect to be felt: between the launch of the expanded pipe and spring 2025, the average flow rates for shipment to China reached 207,000 barrels daily. That compares with an average of 173,000 barrels daily pumped to the United States. Since spring, the shift has become even more marked. By October 2025, as much as 70% of Canadian crude exported from the British Columbia coast was going to China. Now, everyone else in Asia is also interested.

The Trans Mountain pipeline is a “strategically important asset”, Trans Mountain Corp.’s Wademan said this week, suggesting the project could be expanded further, with more “energy corridors” that would add value for Canadians, the Financial Post reported.

“Let’s look where we are, and look how important energy security is, and look how incredibly profitable this asset is; there’s a lot,” Wademan said.

“There’s a lot of merit to holding onto it and realizing that full value.”

Indeed, it would be profitable for the federal government to hold on to the infrastructure as the price of Canadian crude inches closer to $90 per barrel—a level hardly seen as possible just five years ago, and even more recently. TMX has turned into a game-changer for the Canadian oil industry and it will be in the center of the “golden opportunity” that Canada has to become a bigger global player in both oil and gas.

Canada has a “golden opportunity” to become a major global oil player as the war in the Middle East limits sources of crude and natural gas, the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said earlier this month, adding that “The cost of missing this train will be incredible.” It seems the Canadian government is acutely aware of that risk and plans to avoid it and make the best of the country’s resources in a fascinating departure from the previous government’s focus on emission reduction and alternative energy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 06:30

Behind Turkey's Gold Sales: The Biggest Ever Plunge In Foreign Reserves

Shortly after the Iran war started, with gold unexpectedly tumbling, we showed that the reason behind gold's paradoxical move - after all, the precious metal has traditionally been a store of value in times of geopolitical stress - was the furious liquidation of gold by emerging markets, in this case Turkey, scrambling to obtain reserve dry powder so Ankara could cover soaring costs of energy imports.

And indeed, the latest central bank data showed that Turkey’s foreign reserves had their biggest monthly decline on record in March, as the Iran war triggered global selloffs in emerging market assets and strained the lira.

According to balance-of-payments data released on Wednesday, Turkey's official reserves cratered by $43.4 billion in March. Part of the decline reflected state intervention to offset portfolio outflows. The current-account deficit, meanwhile, widened to $9.7 billion in March from $7.3 billion in February as a result of soaring commodity prices.

A major energy importer, Turkey has been hit hard by higher oil and gas prices caused by the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting disruptions to world supplies of crude and refined products. Meanwhile, global banks have started changing their formerly favorable outlook on the lira, citing the exploding current-account deficit. Should inflation pressures persist, Turkey will have no choice but to pursue another accelerated devaluation of the Turkish lira. 

“As international institutions continue to raise their average oil price forecasts for 2026, disruptions in supply chains and ongoing regional tensions — and their potential negative impact on transportation and tourism revenues — keep upward risks alive in year-end projections” for Turkey, said Istanbul-based economist Haluk Burumcekci.

Turkish central bank Governor Fatih Karahan said last week that the ratio between the current-account deficit and gross domestic product would be “below historical averages” this year while acknowledging the upside risks.

Since President Erdogan’s reelection in 2023, a new economic team has sought to stabilize Turkey’s external finances by cooling demand through conventional tools such as higher interest rates and restrictions on credit growth.

The central bank has kept its benchmark rate at 37% for two straight meetings but has effectively lended from a costlier rate of 40% since the outbreak of the Iran war — a technical measure to tighten liquidity without instituting a formal rate hike.

Inflationary pressures persist, however, with annual price growth picking up to 32.4% in April, a number that is set to rise higher in the coming months. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 05:45

Trump Tells Iran 'Clock Is Ticking, Move Fast' After New Peace Proposal As Analysts Predict Likely Return To War

Update(1410ET): President Trump has warned Iran on Sunday that the "clock is ticking" as Pakistani-mediated talks have not only stalled, but show no signs at all of restarting anytime soon. "They better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them," he wrote on Truth Social. "TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!"

He spoke the same day with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who along with Lindsey Graham has been calling for resumption of robust anti-Tehran action to ensure Iran can never go nuclear. Trump's words have been somewhat of a familiar refrain going back several weeks. 

As we detailed below, Iran says it received a counter proposal of '5 conditions' for peace from the White House. In many ways they are directly opposite the 5 conditions Iran sent to the US last week, which Trump had rejected as "garbage".

But as yet there's been no indicator that the US side has attached a timeline to its latest demands. Trump is perhaps pushing this new "clock is ticking" as a timeline threat of sorts. But again, there was no specific date included in the fresh warning.

Last week Bloomberg Intelligence circulated a report titled, Iran Rejects Trump's Offer - Return to War Likely. It concluded:

The diplomatic dance continues: the US and Iran exchanged offers yet again. But they remain far apart, shooting maximalist demands at each other. A comprehensive peace deal is unlikely to materialize. We think the US and Iran will likely return to strikes. But we expect an intense exchange of fire to be temporary and reduce to lower-levels of fighting – what we call the new normal in this protracted conflict. 

More from the Bloomberg Intelligence analysis: 

Short but Intense... and Costly

Trump doesn’t want long war. His popularity is taking a hit as its economic impact is being felt.

We think Trump will likely revert to a short air and missile strike campaign on Iranian infrastructure, military positions, and energy assets while simultaneously continuing the blockade. Tehran will likely respond with strikes of its own, both on US military assets and America’s regional partners. But we expect this to be a short bombardment, rather than the sustained, high-intensity strike campaign that marked the beginning of the war.

The war has already imposed a heavy economic cost. Oil markets flipped from an expected record surplus to historic supply disruption. Major central banks, facing fresh inflation risks, are turning more hawkish. Consumers now pay more for energy, while their borrowing costs also rise, and the future grows more uncertain.

The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more it will drain the oil stockpiles cushioning governments, companies, and consumers today. Once inventories run thin, prices need to do the hard work: rising high enough to curb demand back in line with available supply.

Since that report was issued, nothing has changed, and both sides seem to have dug in their heels even more.

*  *  *

According to a Sunday report from Iran's semi-official Fars news agency, the United States has laid down a firm, take-it-or-leave-it ultimatum to Tehran. Both sides are still trying to patiently wait out the Hormuz crisis, hoping to inflict more economic pain on the other until they blink.

At the top of the list, the US is demanding a near-total dismantling of Iran's atomic ambitions, "allowing only one Iranian nuclear facility to remain operational." 

Anadolu Agency

The list includes direct rejections in response to Iran's own five conditions from a week ago, which President Trump said were "unacceptable" and "garbage".

For example the US is refusing to pay compensation for damage caused during strikes on Iranian territory - a 'maximalist' sticking point which Tehran had demanded previously.

Washington is also reportedly insists that 400 kilograms of enriched uranium be transferred from Iran to the US, while only one active nuclear facility would remain operational inside the Islamic Republic.

Iran for its part has recently vowed to never transfer its nuclear material out of the Islamic Republic, calling the issue a matter of national sovereignty and energy security which it alone has say over. This after even Russia offered to take it.

The newly reported five conditions by the US side further states that the US does not intend to release more than 25% of frozen Iranian assets. Tehran has demanded the dropping of all US sanctions as a key basis for lasting settlement.

Here are the five newly proposed Washington conditions, which some pundits have called 'wishful thinking':

1. No war compensation from US
2. Give up 400kg of Highly Enriched Uranium to US 
3. Iran can only have on nuclear facility to remain active
4. Not more than 25% of frozen assets to be unfreezed 
5. Halting war on all fronts depends on negotiations

So this leaves a huge distance between the Washington list and Tehran's list, as the seemingly unbridgeable gulf remains, also as Iran is digging in its heels.

As a reminder, the below is the Islamic Republic's list, which it hasn't backed down from. It has offered the following as the only basis on which to restart talks:

1. Ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon
2. Lifting all sanctions
3. Releasing frozen Iranian assets
4. Compensation for war damages and losses
5. Recognition of Iran’s sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz

US response to #Iran includes zero compensation, not even 25% of frozen assets released, keeping only one #nuclear facility active, handing over 400kg of highly enriched uranium to the US, and ending the war on all fronts dependent on the negotiations. https://t.co/riS7M4fEeF

— Abas Aslani (@AbasAslani) May 17, 2026

While a Pakistani-mediated ceasefire managed to take effect on April 8, subsequent talks in Islamabad completely collapsed, but then President Trump later extended the truce indefinitely, likely to buy time and to figure out "what's next" - while seeking a complete blockade of Iranian oil exports, and of all vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports.

With Washington demanding total disarmament and Iran demanding control over the world's most critical oil transit choke point, the stage is set for a likely coming renewal of direct clashes, given the zero sum demands of each side now on the table.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 05:10

So Where Does Wokeism Come From? (Spoiler Alert: The French, Of Course!)

Authored by Monica Showalter via AmericanThinker.org,

How did wokeism happen?

A French intellectual, who goes by Brivael Le Pogam on X, has written a tightly focused and brief explanation of it worthy of Eric Hoffer, putting his finger on the thinking of French philospher-historian Michel Foucault, French philosopher Jacques Derrida, and French philospher-literary critic Gilles Deleuze, the first of whom claimed there was  no such thing as truth, just power relationships, the second of whom claimed truth was malleable, and the third of whom made the really weird claim that seeds were greater than fully developed trees because becoming was more important than being, poor romantic devil.

Married to guilt-tripping academics of the U.S., he explains how wokery was the result.

His tweet is in French, but Grok translate kicks in on my site, so I will post the translation below the tweet.

Grok translate, (with censorship from me of one cuss word that means merde): (emphasis ours)

I want to offer my apologies, on behalf of the French, for giving birth to French Theory (which in turn gave birth to the worst of all ideological monstrosities: wokism).

We gave the world Descartes, Pascal, Tocqueville. And then, in the intellectual ruins of post-1968, we gave Foucault, Derrida, Deleuze. Three brilliant men who forged, in the elegance of our language, the ideological weapon that today paralyzes the West.

We must understand what they did.

Foucault taught that truth does not exist, that there are only power relations disguised as knowledge. That science, reason, justice, the medical institution, the school, the prison, sexuality—everything is merely a staging of domination.

Derrida taught that texts have no stable meaning, that every signifier slips away, that every reading is a betrayal, that the author is dead and the reader reigns supreme.

Deleuze taught that we should prefer the rhizome to the tree, the nomad to the sedentary, desire to the law, becoming to being, difference to identity.

Taken individually, these are debatable theses. Combined, exported, and popularized, they form a system. And that system is a poison.

For here’s what happened.

These texts, unreadable in France, crossed the Atlantic. The departments of Yale, Berkeley, and Columbia absorbed them in the 1980s. They found there a soil that did not exist among us: American Puritanism, its racial guilt, its obsession with identity. French Theory married this substratum, and the child of that union is called wokism.

Judith Butler reads Foucault and invents performative gender. Edward Said reads Foucault and invents academic postcolonialism. Kimberlé Crenshaw inherits the framework and invents intersectionality. At every step, the matrix is French: there is no truth, there is only power, so every hierarchy is suspect, every institution is oppressive, every norm is violence, every identity is constructed and thus negotiable, every majority is guilty.

That’s how three Parisian philosophers, who probably never imagined their practical consequences, provided the operating software to an entire generation of activists, university bureaucrats, HR managers, journalists, and legislators. That’s how we ended up with a civilization that no longer knows how to say whether a woman is a woman, whether its own history is worth defending, whether merit exists, whether truth can be distinguished from opinion.

It’s sh** for one simple reason, and it must be stated calmly.

A civilization stands on three pillars: the belief that there exists a truth accessible to reason, the belief that there exists a good distinct from evil, the belief that there exists a heritage to be transmitted.

French Theory set out to dynamite all three. Not out of malice. Out of intellectual play, fascination with suspicion, hatred of the bourgeoisie that had nurtured them. But the result is there. An entire generation learned to deconstruct and never learned to build. An entire generation knows how to suspect and no longer knows how to admire. An entire generation sees power everywhere and beauty nowhere.

I apologize because we French bear a particular responsibility. It’s our language, our universities, our publishers, our prestige that gave this nihilism its chic packaging. Without the legitimacy of the Sorbonne and Vincennes, these ideas would never have crossed the ocean. We exported doubt the way others export weapons.

What is being built now, in Silicon Valley, in AI labs, in startups, in workshops, in all the places where people still make things instead of deconstructing them—that is the response. A civilization is rebuilt by builders, not by commentators. By those who believe that truth exists and is worth devoting oneself to. By those who embrace a hierarchy of the beautiful, the true, the good, and are not ashamed to transmit it.

So, forgive us. And back to work.

His viral tweet has been retweeted by Elon Musk, Javier Milei, and 20,000 other people on X, multiplied many more times by Musk and others. 

Eric Hoffer used to write about these guys in the '50s and '60s, the earlier wave of them, French and German intellectuals, plus numerous academics in the states, often noting that they have never having done a day of work in their lives. He linked their relativist and nihilist radicalism to antisemitism, too. Hoffer knew who they were and he  had their number.

So does this guy.

His tweet advances to the recent wave of them, which created an unholy fusion with U.S. academics to produce wokesterism, the reason we see in our culture the inability to define what a woman is, the collective racism charge that never, ever can be ended, and more rubbish that a whole industry has been built around.

Eric Hoffer, who died in 1983, loved those who could express ideas concisely. Since I knew him personally as a high school and college student, I think he would have enjoyed X.

I hope we hear more from this French guy, because knowledge of this kind is power -- that is why this tweet went viral. It's why, when I first discovered Eric Hoffer's True Believer book as a 12-year-old kid, I hid the book under my bed, because to a kid like me, it felt like it contained all the secrets of the universe. Hoffer has never been out of print, because what he tells is the truth. Truth like this French tweet is the same kind of truth, and the gives me the same kind of feeling: Exposes the liars is the strongest way to stamp the wokeism out. It's a reminder that Western Civilization must win this war on ideas.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 05:00

Net Zero Fearmongering In Tatters After Climate Report 'Implausibility' Ruling

Authored by Chris Morrison via DailySceptic.org,

The fallout from the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ruling that computer model high emissions pathway RCP8.5 is “implausible” is only just beginning. Most mainstream media fearmongering stories over the last 15 years need to be moved into the junk file, as do the increasingly shrill sandwich-board pronouncements of King Charles and Sir David Attenborough.

But the rot goes much deeper than ill-informed public comment, although that alone has been enormously influential in promoting the Net Zero fantasy. Activist-ridden science bodies such as the UK Met Office have brazenly used RCP8.5 to flam up weather predictions which in turn has led to onerous requirements being placed on British industry and finance. Politicians have been convinced by patently ridiculous claims and Net Zero rules and regulations have cascaded through the economy and society.

All the politicised predictions need to be junked and all the resulting regulations reconsidered with a view to abolition. They are all based on assumptions that many at the time said were ridiculous and have now been officially marked as not wanted on voyage. Those inclined to be uncharitable might suggest it was all a hoax from start to finish.

In 2022, the Met Office published its latest ‘UK Climate Projections Report‘ (UKCP18) and claimed it provided users “with the most recent scientific evidence on projected climate change with which to plan”. Many words come to mind to describe the output of computer models, none of which include ‘evidence’. In fact, the Met Office made a feature of its deliberate use of RCP8.5, highlighting its findings in bold type and describing them as “plausible”. These plausible projections, a more accurate description might be laughable, suggested summers and winters in the UK by 2070 could be up to 5.1°C and 3.8°C warmer respectively. More bold claims suggested summer rainfall could decrease by up to 45%, with winter precipitation increasing by 39%. Severe droughts and floods would inevitably follow.

The Met Office concludes: “Governments will make use of UKCP18 to inform its adaption and mitigation planning and decision-making.” Unfortunately, they probably did.

The science writer Roger Pielke Jr. was the first to spot the IPCC’s rejection of RCP8.5, calling it “the most significant development in climate research in decades”. He said that the scenario described “impossible futures”, although the results have dominated climate research, headlines and policy for the best part of two decades. Helped also by the reporting in the Daily Sceptic which went viral across social media, the IPCC finding is firmly established in the public domain. But, notes Pielke, remarkably there has not been a peep from major US or international English language mainstream media outlets.

The New York Times is said to be perhaps the most prominent home for promoting news stories based on studies that rely on RCP8.5. It has said nothing, likewise the BBC and the Guardian. Green Blob-funded Climate Brief has covered RCP8.5 more than perhaps any other English language publication, but again silence reigns. Pielke is led to observe: “The outlets most invested in their longstanding promotion of RCP8.5 have the most to lose from a clear-eyed accounting of what its retirement means for science, policy and their own coverage.”

Nevertheless, there have been some rare sightings of mainstream coverage. The Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant published a front page story headed ‘UN Climate Panel Drops Doomsday Scenario’. The writer of the story Maarten Keulemans later posted on X:

Also in Europe, the Berliner Zeitung ran an article suggesting that “extreme climate scenarios played too large a role in public debate for too long”. Another German publication Die Welt also picked up the story, observing: “A lobby made RCP8.5 famous: the most sensationalist of all climate scenarios has determined scientific studies, media and politics – yet it is unrealistic. Now it is actually being phased out”.

Two members of that ‘lobby’ are the main science publications Nature and Science. In recent years it has sometimes been suggested that climate scientists have moved on from RCP8.5 but the evidence suggests the popular climate crackpipe is difficult to put down. Pielke notes that so far in 2026, more than 2,600 studies have been published using the high emission scenarios, and tens of thousands before that. Both Nature and Science have thrived on publishing RCP8.5 drivel – it will be interesting to see how they spin the passing of an attention-seeking, grant-manufacturing old friend.

The implications of RCP8.5’s demise are vast. Science and journalism careers will be affected, trust in another branch of politicised science will be diminished, rules and regulations imposing unnecessary financial climate costs will need to be re-written (don’t hold your breath), while the promoters of Net Zero will lose a vital fearmongering weapon propping up their Great Reset fantasy. Watch this space.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 03:30

Japanese Company Simplifies Ketchup Packaging Amid Ink Shortage Tied To Middle East Conflict

Kagome is revamping the packaging of several ketchup products after supply disruptions made white printing ink harder to source, according to Japan Today. The shortage stems from raw material constraints tied to the conflict in the Middle East.

Under the redesign, bottles of Kagome Tomato Ketchup will no longer feature the brand’s usual full white-and-red label. Instead, part of the bottle will be left clear, creating a more minimal look. Kagome said switching to a different ink is not a practical option because of technical printing limitations.

Japan Today writes that the updated packaging will be introduced gradually later this month for 500-gram, 300-gram, and 180-gram bottles.

The change reflects broader supply strain across Japan’s food industry. Earlier this week, Calbee Inc. said it would temporarily sell 14 potato chip varieties in monochrome packaging as shortages of naphtha — a petroleum-based material used in production — continue to disrupt operations.

Calbee’s affected products include popular flavors such as Lightly Salted, Consomme Punch, and Seaweed Salt. The company also said it will raise prices on 25 snack items starting Sept. 1, including potato chips and Jagarico. Chip prices are set to increase by 5% to 10%, while Jagarico products will rise by 3% to 10%.

The back-to-back announcements highlight how geopolitical tensions are rippling into everyday consumer goods, affecting everything from packaging materials to retail prices. For shoppers, the most visible impact may be simpler packaging now — and higher grocery bills later.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 02:45

Poland Is Now The Last Country Standing In The Way Of A Federalized Europe

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Its conservative president is totally against this project and can veto related legislation tabled by the liberal prime minister since the latter’s ruling coalition doesn’t have the two-thirds majority to overrule him, thus enabling Poland to play the role that Hungary did prior to Orban’s downfall.

Politico earlier reported that “European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen waited less than a day after Hungary voted Viktor Orbán out of office to call for the EU to get more power over national governments to force through foreign policy decisions.” In particular, she wants qualified majority voting on foreign policy matters whereby at least 55% of member states vote in favor and they represent at least 65% of the EU’s population, which hasn’t yet happened in order to safeguard state sovereignty.

Spanish journalist and analyst Javier Villamor published a piece at The European Conservative that same day about how “Hungary’s Fall Clears Path for a More Centralized EU”.

In brief, “The removal of Brussels’ most persistent opponent is set to accelerate plans to curb national vetoes, expand EU borrowing, and tighten control over member states.” The combined effect would amount to furthering the plan to federalize Europe in alignment with what the EU elites have wanted for some time already.

Von der Leyen’s plan in summer 2024 to “build a veritable union of defense” as well as Germany’s “two-speed Europe” proposal earlier this year and the proposal to fast-track Ukraine’s EU membership are all complementary means to this end that’ll now be easier to implement after Orban’s downfall. If progress is made on any of what was mentioned thus far, then states will lose even more sovereignty than they already have, and this could have disastrous implications for their national identity and social cohesion.

Many of the EU elites pushing this agenda are German, which is why Polish opposition leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski said before the election that Orban’s win would help prevent the EU from becoming a tool for “German neo-imperialism”. He also accused Germany in late 2021 of building a “Fourth Reich” through the EU. Polish President Karol Nawrocki, who’s an independent in alliance with Kaczynski’s conservatives, alluded last December to this significant non-military threat that the German-led EU poses to Poland.

One month prior, he shared his “vision of the direction in which the European Union should go”, which advocates reforming the bloc in order to restore states’ sovereignty, while last month he presented Poland and implicitly himself personally at CPAC as Europe’s conservative champions. With all this in mind, Poland is now the last country standing in the way of a federalized Europe since Nawrocki can veto related legislation and the ruling liberals don’t have the two-thirds majority to overrule him.

The next parliamentary elections aren’t till fall 2027, and given how close they’re expected to be, liberal Prime Minister Tusk isn’t expected to risk the public’s wrath by tabling doomed-to-fail federalization-related legislation. Accordingly, von der Leyen and her ilk’s plot won’t prospectively make any progress despite Orban’s downfall due to these Polish domestic political reasons, and the conservatives’ potential retaking of parliament could then doom it for another four years after that.

In Christian eschatology, the katechon is the one who prevents the arrival of the anti-Christ, so a political comparison among critics of the EU would be the one who prevents the bloc’s federalization. That was Orban up until last year, but then this role was shared with Nawrocki and is now exclusively held by him, with their Czech and Slovak counterparts being considered too susceptible to EU pressure. This is a huge responsibility, an historic one in fact, and his legacy will be determined by whether he stands strong.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 02:00

A Deadly Day In Butler

The following is an excerpt from the newly published book “The Trump Assassination Plots: What the Investigations Missed, and Why it Matters.” The book, which can be found here, attempts to provide the most complete account to date of the attempts on Donald Trump’s life (emphasis ours),

A Deadly Day in Butler

*CRACK* *CRACK* *CRACK*

Three shots rang throughout the Butler Farm Show - causing Trump to grab his ear and fall on the ground, his security detail piling on top of him moments later. Numerous rallygoers later said that they thought they were hearing fireworks at first, but there was a shooter on the AGR rooftop. His first three shots were aimed at Trump, but then he started spraying seemingly indiscriminately.

*CRACK* *CRACK* *CRACK* *CRACK* *CRACK*

As Crooks fired, Butler ESU operator Aaron Zaliponi, who was on the ground, could see his head peeking over the rooftop. Zaliponi had been one of the Butler ESU operators deployed seconds before Crooks started firing. When the shooting began, he was between Trump’s podium and the AGR building - by the fence that separated the Farm Show from the company’s property.

Keeping calm despite the bullets whizzing by, Zaliponi focused on Crooks through the EOTECH red-dot sight on his M4 AR platform SWAT rifle.

*CRACK*

Zaliponi returned fire with a single 5.56mm NATO 62 grain TAP Barrier projectile.

“I can see the gas emit from his barrel, his muzzle. Then right after that I hear the snap of his fifth shot go off. Then immediately after that, I press one off, and that’s whenever he immediately goes down. When I say he goes down, it wasn’t like he was ducking to get out of the way. I mean, like, I know I hit him. Like there’s no doubt about it,” Zaliponi later recounted. “He goes down. He kind of jerks to the right, and then he kind of slumps over slowly and then kind of slowly rolls backwards out of my field of view.”

For the next 10 seconds, the crowd seemed to be under a spell. Some in the stands ducked down, some turned toward the AGR building, and some looked with concern at Trump.

“What are we doing? What are we doing?” one of Trump’s security agents could be heard saying frantically.

At the bottom of a body-bunker of agents who piled onto Trump, the second-in-command of his detail could see that he was bleeding.

“Sir, are you okay?” said Nick Menster, the Assistant Special Agent in Charge (ASAC).

“I think so,” Trump said.

Menster said that he used a white cloth that Trump had at the podium to apply pressure on his ear - the left one.

“No, it’s my right ear,” Trump corrected the agent.

Counter-Snipers in Disarray

On the barn rooftops behind Trump, the Secret Service counter-snipers were in similar disarray. Though they had reoriented their weapons toward the AGR building at 6:10 P.M. and were aware that local police were pursuing someone in that vicinity, they were still caught flat-footed when the shooting began.

A tree was blocking the northern barn counter-sniper team’s view of the rooftop gunman, and video shows them seemingly flinching at the first shots. One of them later told congressional investigators that he and his partner believed they took fire.

“I’m telling you, I could have reached out and smacked these projectiles out of the air with my hand. They were that close. I could feel the air, the pressure difference in my eardrum as these rounds passed,” said a Secret Service counter-sniper, who has not been publicly identified.

While the Secret Service counter-snipers were scrambling, Sgt. Zaliponi kept a watchful eye on the rooftop. He saw Crooks slowly crawl back up and into his sights. But just as the local cop was about to put another bullet into the would-be assassin, Secret Service counter-sniper David King fired a final, 10th shot — a .300 Winchester Magnum bullet. King’s shot, fired from the southern barn behind Trump, came 15 seconds after shooting began and 10 seconds after it had stopped.

*CRACK*

“I got him,” King said.

It’s unclear exactly how long King had the rooftop gunman in his sights.

According to notes King took immediately after the shooting, he saw Crooks “crawling” into position before firing.

“I and my teammates positioned ourselves to observe that area that everyone was moving to. I noticed an individual, white male, white or gray shirt, low crawling on the roof. I noticed an AR-style weapon in his hands. As I moved to observe through my rifle scope I heard weapon fire,” King’s notes said.

“I looked up to see my engagement scope, looked back through the scope, observed the individual shooting, and engaged. At that time, the shooter dropped out of my sight in the scope. I continued to observe the area, as there were reports of another individual on the water tower at four o’clock,” his notes said.

However, King later told congressional investigators that he didn’t actually see Crooks crawling. In fact, he didn’t see Crooks until after he stopped firing, King said.

“I was observing the rooftops, didn’t see anything… When the first shot rang out, I identified the location that Crooks was at, put my binos down, got my rifle. At the time that I was getting into my rifle and getting the [view] of Crooks, that’s when I assumed that three rounds and then five went off,” King told House investigators.

King’s partner, team leader John Marciniak, claimed he didn’t see Crooks until he was dead.

Marciniak indicated that he was discombobulated after a bullet ruptured a hydraulic line on a nearby speaker tower, spraying him with fluid. At first, Marciniak thought that he was having a heat stroke. Another thought flashed through his head: “Am I seeing snow right now?”

Unlike his counterparts on the north barn, Marciniak and King didn’t think they were under fire — though Marciniak may have had second thoughts after speaking to federal investigators.

“At the time, I had no reason to believe shots were fired at us until speaking to the FBI… I guess a round — it was in the air, in our [general] direction, but not close to us.”

Excerpt from “The Trump Assassination Plots: What the Investigations Missed, and Why it Matters.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 23:20

Pro-Israel Forces Throw Kitchen Sink At Massie Ahead Of Tuesday Primary

Eleven months after President Trump launched an all-out political war on Rep. Thomas Massie, the Tuesday, May 19 Kentucky GOP primary is almost here. With polls showing the race going down to the wire, the anti-Massie forces -- whose animus is largely driven by Massie's refusal to vote in accordance with the Israel lobby's wishes -- have been throwing everything they can at him, from vague 11th-hour allegations of inappropriate conduct with a woman, to AI ads showing Massie entering a hotel room with progressive congresswomen, to a new round of Trump social media rants and enough money to make the contest the most expensive House primary in US history. Massie's challenger is former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein. 

In just the past few days, various anti-Massie PACs have filed disclosures indicating another huge load of cash showering down on the race. The Republican Jewish Coalition is spending another $470,000. The misleadingly-named United Democracy Project, which is a PAC affiliated with the formidable American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), revealed more than $950,000 in additional spending. The MAGA Kentucky PAC -- which was created solely to oust Massie and funded by non-Kentuckian Jewish billionaires Miriam Adelson, Paul Singer and John Paulsen -- disclosed more than $1.6 million since May 7.

UPDATE: AIPAC and the Israel lobby have now spent >$15 MILLION boosting Ed Gallrein and attacking Rep. Thomas Massie in #KY04. pic.twitter.com/Znmtc4GEXz

— AIPAC Tracker (@TrackAIPAC) May 16, 2026

As large as those sums sound, they're just a fresh coating atop a mountain of money: The race has now seen more than $20 million dollars in "outside spending" -- that is, money spent by PACs and other entities that are not part of the candidates' campaigns or political parties. Not coincidentally, the next two most-expensive-ever primary races also featured quests by pro-Israel PACs and individuals to oust incumbents who failed to heed the Israel lobby's voting directives. In 2024, AIPAC alone spent $14.5 million and $9 million, respectively, to successfully dislodge New York Democrat Jamaal Bowman and Missouri Democrat Cori Bush. 

On Tuesday -- exactly one week before the primary -- Massie was hit by oddly-vague allegations of wrongdoing by an ex-girlfriend, Cynthia West, who said Massie paid her $5,000 in "hush money" after the two had dated following Massie becoming a widower in 2024. Massie denies the characterization of the money, saying he gave it to her to help her move to Washington, and that she even repaid some of the money. What's more, he said she's never been under any restriction from him about speaking about anything. Among others, the sensationalist, pro-Israel attack-dog Laura Loomer has been running wild with the non-story on X, with characteristic long posts heavy on innuendo and light on details or evidence. (For a deep dive, check out Robby Soave's thorough dissection of the fuzzy allegations at Reason.)

There's more where that came from. Earlier this month, the Adelson-Singer-Paulsen-funded MAGA KY PAC rolled out an anti-Massie ad that used AI video showing him cavorting on the town with Democratic Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar. The ad starts by displaying "Thomas Massie caught in a throuple!" on the screen. It concludes by showing the three holding hands and checking into a hotel room together:

#KYPol: "Thomas Massie, caught in a throuple in Washington. He's cheating with the Squad on the America First movement...it's a complete and total betrayal of President Trump."

MAGA KY is up with a new #KY04 ad featuring AI-generated content. pic.twitter.com/MEUmsPdH5W

— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) May 4, 2026

While the video has a brief, smaller-print disclosure calling it a "satirical ad created with artificial intelligence," some people, including Massie, say that notification may go overlooked, particularly by those in the older crowd where Gallrein draws the most support. "Older voters who don't know that AI exists [are] going to look at that and think that's actually me going on a date with AOC and Ilhan Omar and checking into a hotel together. It's so ridiculous,” said Massie at a "debate" that, along with all the other debates, Gallrein refused to participate in. Gallrein has skipped eight debate opportunities, which is an extraordinary choice for someone challenging an incumbent who's spent most of the race leading the polls, albeit by decreasing margins. 

In one of the most eyebrow-raising ads on Massie's behalf, Restore Freedom PAC recently launched this one that attacks Gallrein over this sponsorship by billionaire Paul Singer, who has donated to LGBT causes, imploring voters to "say 'no' to Woke Eddie Gallrein and his billionaire club of LGBT weirdos."   

NEW: Take a look at this #KY04 ad called "LGBTQ Mafia" from a PAC affiliated w/ Jan. 6 rioter Derrick Evans.

It depicts Jewish donor Paul Singer with an unexplained rainbow Star of David.

More on this insane, now record-breaking $25 million primary: https://t.co/iT3YN8wYEz pic.twitter.com/0YIRYmaJwL

— Andrew Solender (@AndrewSolender) May 11, 2026

In a Big Data poll published Friday, Massie was up by just 1.2%, leading Gallrein 50.6% to 49.4%. Like other polls,  Big Data's showed enormous differences across age groups. At the extremes, 82% of voters under age 30 support Massie, while 61% of voters over age 64 support Gallrein. 

After long having Massie out in front by often-large percentages, prediction markets have shifted mightily in Gallrein's direction in the closing weeks of the primary, to an extent that some have accused anti-Massie individuals of manipulating the markets to create headlines and optimism for Gallrein. As of Saturday night, Polymarket participants gave Gallrein a 53% chance of winning, while Kalshi's gave him a 54% chance. Massie's odds, meanwhile, have been... well... 

//--> //-->

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Yes 48% · No 53%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

With early voting having ended Saturday and the election happening Tuesday, various political figures have been flying into Kentucky to boost Massie or Gallrein. In an unusual move, the sitting Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, will campaign with Gallrein on Monday. Over the weekend, former Congressman Matt Gaetz and current Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert made appearances with Massie.

The latter appearance triggered Trump's wrath, which was manifested in the latest of his dozens and dozens of Truth Social posts excoriating Massie and his supporters. Much as he did with MAGA-centric Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green (MTG), Trump is now excommunicating long-time supporter Boebert from the movement, and seeking a primary challenger for her (though he may not have realized it's too late for this cycle.) On Saturday night, Trump let loose on the "weak-minded" and "dumb" Boebert: 

It should be noted that, while Boebert has almost uniformly backed Trump's agenda, she was one of a small handful of Republicans -- including MTG, who defied Trump and joined Massie in demanding the release of the Epstein files. Trump's vilification of Boebert was one of three Massie-centric rants Trump posted on Saturday. In them, he called Massie a "major sleazebag," a "loser," an "insult to our nation," and an "disloyal, ungracious and sanctimonious FOOL." 

Massie gets high marks from right-wing evaluators of his voting record, but has refused to support several Trump undertakings. In Trump's first term, Massie tried to thwart the $2 trillion Covid-19 "relief" package. Last May, Massie was one of only two Republicans to vote against the "Big Beautiful Bill." The last straw was Massie's condemnation of Trump's June 2025 decision to join Israel in waging war on Iran, and Massie's introduction of a war powers resolution to prohibit further military action without congressional consent. Within days, the PAC funded by three pro-Israel billionaires was launched. 

Asked if he would change his party affiliation to Democrat, Thomas Massie replied:

"I vote with Republicans 91% of the time, and the 9% I don't, they're taking up for pedophiles, starting another war, or bankrupting our country." 🔥 pic.twitter.com/5UOfWYSEvh

— Wide Awake Media (@wideawake_media) April 23, 2026

Massie has repeatedly put a spotlight on the fact that Gallrein's campaign is being turbocharged by pro-Israel forces. In a "debate" on public TV that Gallrein opted out of, Massie told the audience: 

“This is another reason I’m in trouble with the swamp, why they want me gone. 95% of my opponent’s donations come from the Israeli lobby. This comes from Miriam Adelson, Paul Singer, John Paulson, AIPAC. They put millions of dollars into this race for one simple reason: I’ve never voted for foreign aid, not to Ukraine, not to Egypt and not to Israel."

The Massie campaign has countered the Israel lobby's enormous monetary onslaught to some extent via small-dollar donations from thousands of supporters from across the country, achieving particular success with three "moneybomb" campaigns. The "Finish the Fight Moneybomb" raked in more than $2.4 million, and a "Final Countdown Moneybomb" that started on Saturday had $31,000 in the early-Sunday hours. 

Tuesday will also bring primary elections in Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Oregon and Pennsylvania. However, on both sides of the aisle, all across the country -- and in Israel -- none will be more closely-watched than the Kentucky 4th Congressional District race in which Trump and his pro-Israel allies have gone all-in to remove Massie. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 22:45

Are There Really 'No Bad Ideas' When It Comes To 'Saving Our Democracy'?

Authored by Eric Utter via AmericanThinker.com,

Former Vice President Kamala (hic!) Harris recently opined that there are “no bad ideas” when it comes to brainstorming ways to reinvigorate the Democrat party.

During a May 13th livestream on something called the "Win with Black Women" podcast, Hic! Harris suggested that the Democrat party prepare an "expanded playbook" of ideas to help it retake power after the 2026 midterm elections.

Harris opined:

"And in that no bad ideas brainstorm, we talk about what we need to do and think about doing around the Electoral College. We talk about the idea of Supreme Court reform, which includes expanding the Supreme Court. We invite a conversation about multi-member districts."

The old sot suggested that, when Democrats retake the Senate, the Senate Judiciary Committee should quickly establish rules to "penalize people for lying" for Supreme Court justices and nominees.

It is always hilarious when Democrats speak of their dislike for lying … and always lie.

They are to prevarication as Kamala is to drinking, as retrievers are to … retrieving things. They can’t help themselves.

The Tipsy One added,

“Let's talk about statehood for Puerto Rico and D.C. These are the things I think that we've got to do.”

She concluded by saying of Democrats:

"We gotta fight fire with fire. We gotta be ruthless, too."

Democrats start fires. (They don’t always put them out, as clearly demonstrated in Los Angeles County last year.) And Democrats have always been ruthless, whether they were plantation owners or, more recently, possessed by Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) and the rabid desire to dispense, by any means necessary, with those with whom they disagree.

As for the notion that there are no bad ideas? How about “Let’s kill all the Jews” or “Islam is totally compatible with a free, democratic republic?” Or even, “I’ve only had 10 rum and cokes, I think I’ll take a nice drive in my car?” And let’s be honest, Kamala doesn’t have brainstorms, she has perhaps a mild squall or minor dust-up on occasion, maybe even a moderate gust of wind, but no brainstorms.

So, Democrats, just continue to call conservatives Nazis. Keep trying to imprison all your political opponents. An assassination or two might be needed here and there to, you know, “save our democracy.” (The problem is that Democrats actually think the country is their democracy, and that no one else has a right to govern it.)

Kamala may still have her mind set on Running for President Under the Influence (RPUI), but it is hard to see any current likely Democrat heading a ticket the equal of Vance-Rubio or vice-versa. As sure as water is wet, Democrats will resort to their time-tested tactics of slander, libel, lies, gas-lighting, projection, and cheating.

Maybe they should just, hic!, forcibly take power via a good, old-fashioned insurrection?

Anything to save their our democracy, right? 

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 22:10

By Targeting Dairy Farmers, ESG Wants To Decide Your Milk

Authored by Samantha Fillmore via RealClearMarkets,

It starts with a letter in the mail.

A dairy farmer opens it to find new requirements from their milk processing plant.

Herd data, energy usage, emissions figures. The letter calls it voluntary but if you don't comply, the plant can't take your milk. And if the plant can't take your milk, you're out of business.

That's 'Pathways to Dairy Net Zero' in practice...

Pathways to Dairy Net Zero (P2DNZ) is presented as a voluntary, science-based initiative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from dairy producers. In practice, however, it functions as yet another sector-specific implementation of global ESG and net-zero governance.

In the case of P2DNZ, this governance model is applied to large-scale milk producers. The result is the downward transfer of climate-compliance costs and onerous ESG restrictions on farmers. Especially mid-sized and small farms, while offering no plausible pathway to detectable global emissions reductions. In short, this is the latest attack on American farmers from globalist board rooms seeking to control what you consume.

P2DNZ may be presented as a voluntary, science-based initiative but in reality, it's the same ESG playbook we've seen used to squeeze entire industries into net-zero compliance without a single vote being cast. The pressure doesn't come from government. It comes from the giant food corporations at the top of the supply chain. It comes from the boardrooms of companies like Nestlé and Danone and filters down through processors until it lands on the farmer who has no real choice but to comply.

What begins as “guidance” quickly becomes obligation.

For dairy farmers, especially the ones that make up the lifeblood of the American Heartland, that obligation carries a heavy cost. P2DNZ effectively embeds climate compliance into the financial and commercial conduits of the industry. It deeply impacts how farmers access credit, who processes their milk, who buys their milk, and under what conditions they can continue operating. The burden doesn’t fall on distant institutions or multinational coalitions. It falls squarely on the people milking cows before sunrise, managing tight margins, and trying to pass their family farms on to the next generation.

And for what measurable gain?

Even under the most aggressive assumptions, eliminating all emissions from U.S. dairy production would have no detectable impact on global climate trends. That’s not a political statement; it’s a matter of scale. Yet the economic consequences are anything but theoretical. Farmers face rising compliance costs. Consumers face higher prices at the grocery store. And the industry itself faces increasing consolidation, as smaller producers struggle to keep up with mandates they had zero role in shaping.

This is the uncomfortable truth at the heart of P2DNZ: it is less about environmental outcomes and more about control. It’s about shifting decision-making power away from independent producers and toward a network of globalist financial and corporate actors.

The attacks on American agriculture have taken on many forms. From discriminating against the use of diesel- and gasoline-powered farming equipment in the lending market, to corporate shareholder resolutions calling on food companies to “reduce greenhouse gas emissions” by cutting beef production, to utter demands to adopt plant-based alternatives to actual meat, and even outright litigation designed to bankrupt American businesses and farmers. Regardless of the tactic, they share a common objective. To create a world in which every single human is under the thumb of a global set of rules that would ensure more pain and misery than anyone should entertain. 

The good news is that the current federal administration seems to be sticking up for small- and mid-sized American farms and dairy producers. Yesterday, the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, shared a post on X highlighting the Pathways to Dairy Net Zero Problem. “Dairy farmers are vital in rural America, but now face radical ESG mandates disguised as “sustainability.” As (@Heartland Impact) notes, Pathways to Dairy Net Zero will burden small farms with costly compliance.”

P2DNZ is not an isolated initiative. It is the agricultural, and diary centered, expression of a broader ESG governance model that substitutes accounting targets for physical outcomes and private coordination for public accountability.

Hopefully, in the months and years to follow, more Americans and policymakers will become aware of the harms associated with incorporating ESG metrics into farming. American famers feed the nation, and they deserve better.

Samantha Fillmore (sfillmore@heartland.org) is the senior state government relations manager at The Heartland Institute.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 21:00

Social Security Recipients Could See Larger Payment Adjustment In 2027 Amid Higher Inflation

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A senior citizens group has forecast that the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security payments will increase by 3.9 percent next year, more than 1 percentage point higher than last month’s prediction.

Blank U.S. Treasury checks are run through a printer at the U.S. Treasury printing facility in Philadelphia, on July 18, 2011. William Thomas Cain/Getty Images

The Senior Citizens League, which issues monthly projections on the COLA for Social Security, said in a statement Tuesday the 3.9 percent for 2027 is already higher than the 2.8 percent increase that went into effect in 2026. The group in April had forecast a 2.8 percent increase for next year’s payments.

“Fast-rising oil prices could have downstream effects on the economy and push inflation even higher,” potentially leading to a higher COLA projection, the group said, adding that research has show that higher gas prices can lead to higher prices across the board.

The COLA for next year is usually announced by the Social Security Administration in October and is based on Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) reports issued by the Labor Department for the months of July, August, and September.

The group’s forecast Tuesday came as the department released its monthly CPI report, which found that inflation in April increased by 0.6 percent month over month, along with a 3.8 percent annual increase.

According to the Labor Department’s report, the rise in inflation was in part caused by higher gasoline, energy, and fuel prices. The gasoline index rose 5.4 percent over the past month while gas prices increased 11.1 percent in April, and the fuel index increased by 5.8 percent, it found.

Data released by the American Automobile Association (AAA) showed that as of Thursday, the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline rose by 2 cents to $4.53 nationwide. Diesel rose by 1 cent to $5.66 per gallon, according to the data.

Just two days before the U.S.–Iran war started in late February, regular gasoline cost around $2.98 per gallon on average nationwide, according to AAA.

After the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, Tehran effectively closed off access to the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes. The choking off of the strait has sent energy prices higher and has rattled world markets.

The oil shock shows no sign of letting up as the International Energy Agency warned Wednesday that the “mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace.’’

Meanwhile, the producer price index, another measure of inflation that tracks prices before they reach consumers, rose 6 percent from a year earlier, the highest point in more than three years, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

“Many seniors are telling us the same thing: As inflation picks back up, life still does not feel affordable. The average senior already lives on much less than younger Americans, according to the Census Bureau, and our supporters constantly tell us they feel like they’re falling farther and farther behind,” Shannon Benton, the president of the Senior Citizens League, said in a statement on Tuesday.

She added that retirees living on fixed incomes are seeing prices on health care, housing, utilities, and insurance “continue to rise faster than prices in the rest of the economy, silently wrenching seniors dry.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 19:50

Complete Q1 13-F Summary: The Fireworks In Berkshire's Post-Buffett Portfolio, And Everything Else

Friday was the 15th of the month 45 days after quarter end, which means we got a flood of 13F reports indicating what asset managers were long as of March 31. We will do a summary recap below of all the biggest names, but as usual we start with Berkshire due to its traditional lack of turnover and corresponding price impact of the stock of new positions or liquidations. And we should underline "traditional" because in Berkshire's first full quarter under Warren Buffett replacement Greg Abel, who took the reins at Berkshire this year after Buffett stepped down following six decades at the helm, the new CEO took a machete to no less than 14 existing position which he dumped unceremoniously. 

But first, let's look at the additions of which there were two: one big one and a much smaller one.

Starting with the former, Berkshire unveiled a new $2.6 billion stake in Delta Airlines, reigniting the conglomerate’s complicated relationship with the airline industry. The Omaha-based hedge fund-cum-conglomerate said it had purchased 39.8 million shares in the airline as of the end of March, according to its latest 13F. The move - which amounted to a 6.1% stake - sent shares of the carrier up more than 3% in late trading.

It's not the first time Berkshire has been involved with the name: Under the recently departed former CEO Warren Buffett, Berkshire had a tense relationship with the airline industry over the decades. After a troublesome investment in USAir, Buffett once joked in 2001 that he would call an 800 number to declare he was an “air-o-holic” if he ever got the urge to invest in airlines again. Then in 2016, Berkshire dove into the industry again, amassing stakes in the four largest U.S. airlines.  But Buffett reversed course again in 2020, when he exited his airline holdings in Delta, Southwest, American Airlines and United as the sector was grappling with the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic. Fast forward 6 years and the company is once again building up a stake in airlines, only at much higher prices. 

Berkshire also revealed it has amassed a small stake in retailer Macy’s. A stronger-than-expected sales outlook had boosted Macy’s stock earlier this year. Shares of the department store operator jumped more than 6% in late trading on Friday in response to the Berkshire filing.

During the quarter, Berkshire also boosted its holding in star AI performer Alphabet, adding 36.4 million shares in Google’s parent company. Berkshire also added modestly to its stake in Lennar. 

But while Abel added to Google, it dumped all its holdings of Amazon.com, some 2.276 million shares as of Dec 31, 2025. 

There was much more: Berkshire also exited its sizable positions in credit card companies Visa and Mastercard (combined over $5 billion as of Dec 31), and liquidated holdings in UnitedHealth Group, which proved to be a brief flirt for the conglomerate; UnitedHealth had been trying to rebuild confidence with investors after struggling to adapt to changing US government payment policies. The stock dropped roughly 2.5% in post-market trading on Friday. Berkshire also sold out all its holdings in Diageo plc, Pool Corp, Charter Communications, Domino’s Pizza, Heico, Lamar Advertising, Allegion, AON, and Liberty Latin America. 

Why the mass dump? According to the WSJ, Abel offloaded all the equity holdings that were previously managed by Todd Combs, Berkshire’s former stock-picker. Combs left Berkshire and joined JPMorgan in December for a broad investing advisory role. 

Finally, Berkshire reduced its holdings in Bank of America, Chevron, Davita, Liberty Live Holdings, Nucor and Constellation Brands.  The full breakdown of Berkshire's 13F is in the table below.

Beksrhire, aside 

Senator Investment Group disclosed yesterday its updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New RIOT PFE RKT HAL C V ALKS COP AVGO positions, Added to NU AS holdings, Exited LTH CMCSA SSNC; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: RIOT (1.5 mln shares), PFE (1.25 mln), RKT(1.25 mln), HAL (847K), EEM (570K), C (330K), V(255K), ALKS (235K), COP (219K), AVGO (188K), CVS (175K) , HAS (175K), SATS (103K), AEIS (100K), LHX (90K), KNTK (76K), AMAT (65K) Increased: NU (2.45 mln shares from 2.2 mln shares),AS (1.3 mln from 0.93 mln), NVDA (825K from 505K), DHR (433K from 169K), BA (441K from 28K), AMZN(610K from 430K), SN (554K from 400K), WRBY(500K from 377K), ETHA (243K from 134K), ULS(400K from 300K), VST (197K from 110K), MSFT(268K from 188K), META (134K from 74K), WULF(139K from 85K), VIK (523K from 475K), GOOG (13K from 11K) 
• Maintained: WBD (3 mln shares), PRM (2.4 mln), APH (200K)  Exited: LTH (from 1.3 mln shares), CMCSA (1.2 mln), SSNC (1.04 mln), IMSR (900K), BILL (693K), COF(472K), MEOH (375K), PFSI (287K), UNP (275K), GE(150K), KWEB (103K), LPLA (100K), XLI (61K), FBTC(33K), PLTR (12K), COIN (7K)
• Decreased: UAL (1.4 mln shares from 3.1 mln shares), BKD (2.5 mln from 3.4 mln), TECK (0.77 mln from 1.66 mln), JHX (1.1 mln from 1.8 mln), ATRO(22K from 459K), HOOD (141K from 405K), MT (341K from 580K), WWD (227K from 452K), APO (340K from 537K), ATI (145K from 325K), CVNA (185K from 260K), TSM (263K from 325K), HWM (42K from 98K),UNH (35K from 75K), VRT (260K from 274K)

Lansdowne Partners discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New SLB BKR positions, Added to AMZN SW ARM ADI UAL DAL TECK LIN IONQ; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: SLB (2.96 mln), BKR (40K)
• Increased: SW (1.9 mln from 257K), ARM (936K from 472K), UAL (1.5 mln from 1.2 mln), TECK (2 mln from 1.8 mln), LIN (449K from 227K), IONQ (796K from 643K), RAL (195K from 100K), B (343K from 266K),DAL (2.5 mln from 2.4 mln), MDT (89K from 31K), AMZN (78K from 47K), ADI (664K from 635K), ETN(130K from 110K), TXN (92K from 78K)
• Maintained: TSM (1.3 mln)
• Exited: CRH (308K), FTV (48K), FLUT (2K)
• Decreased: ROK (14K from 31K)

Meritage Group discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New TOST CSGP AON positions, Exited QSR SGI; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: TOST (3.4 mln shares), CSGP (3.3 mln), AON(680K), SPGI (504K), SPY (52K)
• Maintained: PCOR (2.68 mln shares), AMZN (1.86 mln), WDAY (1.62 mln), MSFT (1.27 mln)
• Exited: QSR (from 3.2 mln shares), SGI (2.4 mln)
• Decreased: TRU (3.6 mln shares from 5.3 mln shares), COF (1.3 mln from 1.8 mln), MSCI (406K from 467K), EFX (154K from 165K)

Baupost Group (Seth Klarman) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New NCLH DNOW TFX PCVX V positions, Added to COLD AMZN FERG GOOG AERO, Exited FIS FISV LBTYA; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: NCLH (3.6 mln shares), DNOW (3.6 mln), TFX(1.6 mln), PCVX (800K), AON (769K), V (701K)
• Increased: COLD (7.8 mln shares from 3.5 mln shares), AERO (4.88 mln from 4.86 mln), AMZN (3.1 mln from 2.1 mln), FERG (1.4 mln from 1.1 mln), GOOG (1.18 mln from 1.09 mln), MOH (634K from 625K) 
• Maintained: HLF (9.3 mln shares), QSR (8.1 mln), GDS (3.0 mln), GPC (1.5 mln), WCC (1.4 mln), ELV(1.3 mln)
• Exited: FIS (from 4.5 mln shares), FISV (2.2 mln), LBTYA (2.1 mln), DG (2.06 mln), CRH (1.07 mln), TBN(257K)
• Decreased: LBTYK (13.4 mln shares from 20.9 mln shares), WTW (893K from 1.36 mln), EXP (893K from 1.19 mln), UNP (1.5 mln from 1.6 mln)

Softbank discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New LIFE position, maintained INTC SYM WBTN KLAR TEM TSM, Exited LMND, Cut TMUS (18.49); Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: LIFE (3.13 mln shares)
• Maintained: XXI (89.11 mln shares), INTC (86.96 mln), INTR (60.51 mln), SYM (39.83 mln), VTEX (38.43 mln), WBTN (31.43 mln), NU (17.84 mln), KLAR (15.4 mln), TEM (5.41 mln),
• Exited: LMND (from 0.93 mln shares), CRCL (0.1 mln), UBER (0.02 mln)
• Decreased: TMUS (10 mln shares from 28.5 mln shares), NMRA (6.09 mln from 6.43 mln)

Marathon Partners discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New FLEX CRCL positions; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: FLEX (13K), CRCL (3K)
• Increased: CNS (115K from 75K), TPB (31K from 18K)
• Maintained: XMTR (115K), GOOG (6K)
• Decreased: RELY (1270K from 1338K), LION (220K from 275K), HSIC (13K from 48K), SXT (5K from 23K),TKO (73K from 84K), UBER (140K from 150K), FLUT(10K from 17K), ATMU (75K from 80K), META (25K from 28K), ATI (18K from 20K)

TCI Fund (Chris Hohn) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New GOOGL position (and adds to GOOG holding), Boosted V SPGI MCO holdings, Cut MSFT; positions Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: GOOGL (2.46 mln shares)
• Increased: V (30.47 mln shares from 27.72 mln shares), SPGI (14.04 mln from 11.79 mln), GOOG(8.85 mln from 7.6 mln), MCO (14.33 mln from 13.31mln)
• Maintained: GE (47.51 mln shares), CP (46.52 mln), FER (20.74 mln), CNI (9.85 mln)
• Decreased: MSFT (2.73 mln shares from 16.78 mln shares)

Eminence Capital (Ricky Sandler) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New U MTN EL DHR TSM positions, Added to AMZN VVV CPNG SE Z SGI PFGC holdings, Exited PTON GPK DKNG GTLB PINS JEF CF CRM; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: U (725K), MTN (714K), EL (698K), DHR (561K), TSM (422K), MRSH (320K), MNDY (248K), AON(17 9K)
• Increased: CPNG (15.5 mln from 12.6 mln), SE (4.1 mln from 2.6 mln), Z (3.5 mln from 2.1 mln), SGI (1.5 mln from 314K), PFGC (3.72 mln from 2.65 mln), DT(5.3 mln from 4.5 mln), MDLN (2.28 mln from 1.5 mln),FLUT (484K from 79K), VVV (4.4 mln from 4.2 mln), AMD (1.2 mln from 968K), SNPS (449K from 249K), THC (790K from 614K), FERG (646K from 500K),FWONK (1.98 mln from 1.9 mln), AMZN (1.54 mln from 1.48 mln), BABA (861K from 826K), ABG (956K from 926K), MDB (163K from 156K) 
• Exited: PTON (18.2 mln), GPK (12.8 mln), DKNG (8.4 mln), GTLB (7.7 mln), PINS (4.5 mln), JEF (3.8 mln),CF (1.28 mln), CRM (1.0 mln), SYY (897K), ELV(487K), LPLA (442K), UNH (378K), UNP (352K), META (62K) 
• Decreased: ATMU (1.28 mln shares from 3.83 mln shares), LPX (2.53 mln from 4.05 mln), RRR (0.41 mln from 1.6 mln), WK (2.52 mln from 3.71 mln), MGRC(806K from 950K)

Miller Value Partners (Bill Miller) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New BLMN CRGY positions, Added to CNDT JELD GTN holdings, Exited STLA; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: BLMN (2.0 mln shares), CRGY (2 mln), ABR(604K), PTLO (129K), MBC (105K), FIGR (91K), REZI(70K), ZD (68K), CPNG (63K), PINS (60K), VRM(58K), CTRN (54K), CART (46K), PRDO (40K), CROX(39K), SPY (30K), FOUR (30K), BLDR (19K), A BNB(16K) Increased: CNDT (10.0 mln shares from 5.6 mln shares), JELD (6.6 mln from 4.1 mln), GTN (5.4 mln from 4 mln), CTO (556K from 434K), VTRS (732K from 619K), MRP (181K from 83K), LNC (571K from 505K),ARLP (185K from 132K), UPBD (120K from 70K), UPS (119K from 87K), MSTR (52K from 25K), BBW(104K from 78K), CHRD (69K from 58K) 
• Maintained: OMF (83K), CALM (62K)
• Exited: STLA (0.43 mln shares) 
• Decreased: TDAY (2 mln shares from 3.4 mln shares),FOSL (2.4 mln from 3.2 mln), DCH (1.4 mln from 1.7mln), QUAD (2.65 mln from 2.74 mln), NBR (444K from 603K), UGI (121K from 262K), BMY (70K from 108K), VZ (168K from 198K), ITRN (204K from 215K), WAL (55K from 64K), BFH (194K from 201K), UNFI(5K from 13K), JXN (81K from 86K), FTI (3K from 8K), TPC (3K from 7K)

Scopia Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New VISN position, Exited BRZE TRU TREX LPX SGI; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: VISN (664K)
• Maintained: MNKD (695K)
• Exited: BRZE (293K), TRU (236K), TREX (209K), LPX(200K), SGI (107K), CVNA (8K),
• Decreased: CC (562K from 1.9 mln), HLIT (644K from 1.9 mln), VSTS (453K from 1.4 mln), VVV (203K from 1.1 mln), PTON (1.8 mln from 2.3 mln), CTVA (148K from 600K), LIVN (186K from 538K), AZTA (236K from 567K), PRMB (466K from 780K), GOOS (391K from 667K), KKR (90K from 277K), RRX (43K from 217K), AER (28K from 199K), BATRK (78K from 239K), ENS(30K from 154K), AMZN (43K from 146K), JBHT (38K from 115K)

Kerrisdale Advisors discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New ADTN DV NOK PAYO SWKS MRVL positions; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: ADTN (552K), DV (398K), NOK (284K), PAYO(163K), LNSR (139K), SWKS (127K), MRVL (114K), C VE (111K), ACVA (91K), CNQ (73K), FTRE (73K),ADEA (71K), FRSH (62K), INTC (61K), LBTYA (61K), FL O (56K), MOS (40K), OI (40K), PYPL (37K), FVRR(36K), SMCI (35K), AMTM (29K), KHC (29K), WHD(28K) , BAC (27K) 
• Increased: SNAP (283K from 39K), UHAL.B (127K from 55K), SHC (608K from 557K), LGN (106K from 61K), GTLB (69K from 26K), CPNG (150K from 109K), CART (94K from 73K), RICK (27K from 9K), AMZN(59K from 41K), AMRZ (62K from 47K), MSFT (12K from 1K), V (50K from 39K), GFF (17K from 7K), ZM(47K from 38K), APPF (22K from 16K), UNP (20K from 16K), DEO (34K from 31K)
• Exited: GTM (348K), RTO (69K), LBRT (64K), VAL(50K), LESL (24K), KNX (23K)
• Decreased: TDS (298K from 506K), KVUE (171K from 344K), NE (14K from 148K), SYY (83K from 211K),WMG (9K from 67K), CIB (40K from 91K), ACMR(224K from 263K), FOXF (51K from 83K), PERI (49K from 76K), NXE (30K from 51K)

Public Investment Fund (sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia) discloses updated Q1 2026 portfolio positions in 13F filing: Maintained LCID UBER EA positions, Exited ALUR warrants; Maintained: LCID (177.09 mln shares), UBER (72.84 mln), EA (24.81 mln), CTEV (1.2 mln).

Leon Cooperman discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New COF AMZN positions, Added to OMF PLGO STKL LAD holdings, Exited AMRZ OXY RRX; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: COF (370K), AMZN (170K)
• Increased: OMF (2.01 mln shares from 0.7 mln shares), PLGO (7.98 mln from 7.04 mln), STKL (9.3 mln from 9.05 mln), LAD (0.34 mln from 0.32 mln),EWJ (0.02 mln from 0.01 mln)
• Maintained: RKT (21.02 mln shares), ET (13.32 mln), VRT (2.16 mln)
• Exited: AMRZ (880K), OXY (700K), RRX (690K)
• Decreased: AESI (4.08 mln shares from 5.05 mln shares), ELV (0.23 mln from 0.34 mln)

D1 Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New NU CPNG SGI U DASH TMO LYV CVNA CLS GOOGL positions, Added to AMZN NVDA JHX DHR TXN AFRM holdings, Exited CNM ENTG APG SATS GEHC BAC; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: NU (25.89 mln shares), CPNG (11.61 mln), SGI(4.69 mln), U (3.26 mln), DASH (1.44 mln), TMO(725K), LYV (674K), CVNA (668K), CLS (542K), GOOGL (469K), FERG (349K), TSM (329K), M LM(323K), ADI (292K), BLD (213K), ASML (7K) 
• Increased: JHX (28.3 mln shares from 24.4 mln shares), DHR (2.3 mln from 0.56 mln), TXN (1.75 mln from 0.49 mln), AFRM (1.94 mln from 0.82 mln), KRC(11.28 mln from 10.4 mln), AVGO (0.98 mln from 0.36mln), SE (4.05 mln from 3.49 mln), AMZN (1.81 mln from 1.34 mln), NVDA (1.57 mln from 1.15 mln), RDDT(2.46 mln from 2.12 mln), COF (1.12 mln from 828K),MELI (374K from 224K), DIS (2.36 mln from 2.22 mln)
• Maintained: CART (22.56 mln shares), LINE (7.4 mln), USFD (4.28 mln), APO (1.16 mln), APP (0.67 mln)
• Exited: CNM (from 2.65 mln shares), ENTG (2.49 mln), APG (2.2 mln), SATS (1.86 mln), GEHC (1.76 mln), BAC (1.25 mln), NI (1.21 mln), ANET (962K), Q (937K), LIN (484K), SNPS (378K), MDLN (377K), META (376K), AEP (344K) 
• Decreased: KNX (5.49 mln from 7.72 mln), FLS (5.87 mln from 7.66 mln), CLH (1.34 mln from 2.78 mln), SCHW (2.36 mln from 3.15 mln), XPO (1.29 mln from 2.04 mln), SHW (474K from 962K), ADSK (309K from 456K), JCI (1.22 mln from 1.35 mln), SPOT (340K from 396K)

Soros Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New EIKN AMT TXN positions, Added to PUMP ALC, Exited NBIS EWZ AEO GM CZR; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: EIKN (485K), AMT (53K), TXN (25K), AS (21K), GEV (18K), ADI (16K), SKYW (15K)
• Increased: PUMP (1.09 mln from 685K), ALC (94K from 76K), CAT (17K from 8K), MSI (14K from 7K), NFLX (31K from 25K), DHR (33K from 27K), FIX (12K from 6K), TJX (19K from 14K), AMZN (35K from 32K), VRSN (21K from 18K), NVDA (12K from 9K), LOW(19K from 17K), IUSB (6K from 5K), CPAY (13K from 12K)
• Maintained: PACK (4.63 mln), WULF (713K), CP(69K), NKE (69K)
• Exited: NBIS (229K), EWZ (150K), AEO (143K), GM (131K), CZR (100K), ON (90K), GAP (74K), BSX(55K), EWY (53K), CHDN (50K), SEI (44K), TM (23K), TRU (22K)
• Decreased: GOOGL (6K from 247K), TSM (5K from 83K), AVGO (7K from 81K), FLUT (3K from 34K), GDDY (16K from 42K), ICE (15K from 34K), BE (38K from 57K), V (22K from 31K), TPR (4K from 9K), SBUX (47K from 51K), EME (6K from 9K), UNP (18K from 21K), HD (13K from 15K)

Engaged Capital (Glenn Welling) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Added to PTLO BL, Exited FRPT, Trimmed VFC CGNX YETI; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• Increased: PTLO (3.4 mln shares from 1.5 mln shares), BL (1.4 mln from 1.1 mln)
• Maintained: BRCC (13.94 mln shares), EVH (5.56 mln), GXO (822K)
• Exited: FRPT (401K)
• Decreased: VFC (4.68 mln shares from 5.31 mln shares), CGNX (484K from 933K), YETI (1784K from 2033K)

Tiger Global discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New EQPT INTC XNDU PAYP RVI LITE MELI positions, Added to CPNG TSM Z NVDA AMAT AVGO META SPOT holdings, Exited GRAB FLUT VEEV HNGE ESTC WDAY CRCL; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: EQPT (4.6 mln shares), INTC (1.6 mln), XNDU(500K), PAYP (400K), RVI (400K), LITE (137K), MELI(135K) 
• Increased: CPNG (34.6 mln shares from 26.3 mln shares), TSM (5.6 mln from 3.7 mln), Z (7.4 mln from 6.1 mln), NVDA (12.0 mln from 11.0 mln), AMAT (1.7 mln from 0.9 mln), AVGO (3.6 mln from 2.9 mln), META (3.1 mln from 2.8 mln), SPOT (1.6 mln from 1.3 mln)
• Maintained: SE (15.4 mln shares), GOOGL (10.6 mln), AMZN (10 mln), LRCX (3.9 mln), NFLX (2.4 mln), CPAY (1.8 mln), GEV (973K)
• Exited: GRAB (from 92.9 mln shares), FLUT (4 mln), VEEV (2.4 mln), HNGE (1.8 mln), ESTC (1.69 mln),WDAY (1 mln), CRCL (500K)
• Decreased: TTWO (2 mln shares from 5.8 mln shares), CHYM (11.1 mln from 14.2 mln), MSFT (2.5 mln from 5.5 mln), APO (3.3 mln from 6.2 mln), XYZ (4 mln from 6.4 mln), RDDT (2.5 mln from 3.8 mln), CSGP (1.5 mln from 2.3 mln), NOW (1.5 mln from 2.1mln), APP (1 mln from 1.3 mln), UNH (350K from 420K)

Discovery Capital (Rob Citrone) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New ON JMIA CAR HUYA WOLF INFQ FPS MDLN SNDK NVDA positions, Added to GENI CX AMX GEO AMZN, Exited AMKR GDS SNAP, Trimmed IREN CLF; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: ON (1.4 mln), IFS (1.1 mln), VLRS (964K), RKT(884K), JMIA (697K), CAR (549K), HUYA (467K), WOLF (425K), INFQ (396K), FP S (275K), MDLN(250K), SNDK (184K), CMPS (180K), ONMD (112K), ARE (100K), VLO (85K), ROST (72K ), LNG (67K), NVDA (57K), TER (52K), CRM (50K), BRRR (48K), ULTA (47K), SOXX (44K), FSLR (42K), I NTU (21K), IYM (12K)
• Increased: GENI (7.5 mln shares from 4.2 mln shares), QXO (1.38 mln from 1.35 mln), NU (2.2 mln from 0.4 mln), TV (22.4 mln from 21.8 mln), BBAR (1.0 mln from 448K), JBS (3.4 mln from 3 mln), CX (3.5 mln from 3.1 mln), YPF (538K from 270K), SATS (412K from 173K), GGAL (869K from 641K), MU (276K from 105K), AMX (4.44 mln from 4.29 mln), PINS (773K from 621K), LRCX (298K from 152K), GEO (1.43 mln from 1.31 mln), AMZN (124K from 43K), GLNG (267K from 192K), AGRO (1.27 mln from 1.2 mln), BAP(141K from 83K), FISV (310K from 259K), SHY (57K from 8K), COF (269K from 232K), APP (51K from 37K), IBIT (644K from 7K)
• Maintained: METC (5.5 mln shares), PPTA (1.3 mln), PSN (0.5 mln)
• Exited: ORBS (from 14.9 mln shares), AMKR (2.6 mln), GDS (1.4 mln), SNAP (1.0 mln), GDLC (423K),COHR (329K), ACMR (296K), EAT (250K), GSIT(184K), DAL (167K), FRO (160K), ES TA (155K), SOLV(147K), TTWO (137K), AMD (131K), AWI (118K), SLM(111K), EWW (105K), UAL (105K), GLXY (100K), AVGO (83K), DDOG (83K), BA (77K), BIDU (76K),KRMN (75K), LOAR (75K), LITE (62K), VIK (50K), BMA (49K), NVT (44K), META (42K), ADBE (38K), MCD (37K), BE (25K), SN (25K), DPZ (24K)
• Decreased: IREN (1.8 mln shares from 2.6 mln shares), CLF (1.5 mln from 2 mln), PRMB (1.4 mln from 1.7 mln), VNET (6.0 mln from 6.3 mln), JPM(155K from 227K), CHDN (160K from 169K), AEM(43K from 50K), HDB (183K from 756K)

Impactive Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New GTLB CART LRN ICLR positions, Added to SLM, Exited CLVT ETSY; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: GTLB (3.91 mln shares), CART (1.57 mln), LRN(1.11 mln), ICLR (0.45 mln)
• Increased: SLM (7.82 mln shares from 7.23 mln shares), IWM (0.25 mln from 0.08 mln)
• Maintained: VAC (4.13 mln shares)
• Exited: CLVT (from 36.41 mln shares), ETSY (3.04 mln)
• Decreased: WMS (0.86 mln shares from 1.46 mln shares), WEX (1.71 mln from 2.2 mln), ABG (1.07 mln from 1.25 mln)

Stadium Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Trimmed LCII BC GTLB holdings; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• Maintained: SNBR (2.62 mln), BLDR (159K), DKS(35K)
• Decreased: LCII (42K from 168K), BC (134K from 233K), GTLB (45K from 85K)

Duquesne (Stanley Druckenmiller) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New NUVB CAI JBS GSG INTC ARGT positions, Added to YPF STM ADMA CLF NTRA TBBB holdings, Exited XLF COGT AEVA DOCU GOOGL; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: NUVB (4.5 mln shares), CAI (1.9 mln), OLMA (987K), JBS (656K), GSG(643K), INTC (411K), ARGT (387K), DBVT (383K), RV MD (316K), XENE(239K), TWST (206K), AVGO (196K), TWLO (182K), HUM (138K), VIST( 135K), LYB (131K), Q (126K), ARM(107K), BLTE (106K), JBL (82K), SOLS(63K), NET (53K), STX (51K), LIN(41K), COHR (40K), SNDK (38K), CLS(33K), MU (23K), WLK (21K)
• Increased: YPF (3.2 mln shares from 0.6 mln shares), STM (2.6 mln from 0.77 mln), ADMA (1.55 mln from 0.25 mln), CLF (2.3 mln from 1.75 mln), NTRA (3.1 mln from 2.5 mln), TBBB(3.1 mln from 2.7 mln), U (739K from 410K), ROKU (750K from 583K), SE(1.1 mln from 944K), OPCH (1.87 mln from 1.75 mln), AA (1.49 mln from 1.38 mln)
• Maintained: NAMS (3.1 mln shares)  
• Exited: XLF (from 5.5 mln shares), COGT (2.2 mln), AEVA (1.8 mln), DOCU (1.02 mln), EEM (903K), ENTG(844K), DAL (651K), AAL (640K), ON(536K), CMG (392K), GO OGL (385K), PGNY (295K), Z (193K), WOLF (187K), FLUT (115K), RH (88K), PM (67K), DASH (36K), AGX (30K), GS (28K), NP(20K) 
• Decreased: CPNG (2.7 mln shares from 6.8 mln shares), TEVA (2.4 mln from 5.9 mln), PCT (1 mln from 2.9 mln), STUB (1.4 mln from 2.3 mln), QSR (454K from 1.2 mln), BE (136K from 741K), LSCC (323K from 926K), FIGR (1.2 mln from 1.5 mln), WWD(211K from 591K), INSM (1.15 mln from 1.48 mln), DAKT (563K from 853K), WAB (95K from 300K), CRH(378K from 475K), UAL (262K from 348K), TSM (495K from 543K), MELI(3K from 47K) 

Land & Buildings discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New INVH LAMR DLR positions, Exited NSA AMH CSR; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: INVH (1.97 mln), LAMR (134K),DLR (114K), SBAC (60K) 
• Increased: CURB (905K from 217K),NHI (587K from 413K), RHP (288K from 204K), CBRE (185K from 128K),SPG (217K from 168K), PLD (169K from 134K) 
• Exited: NSA (1.31 mln), AMH (1.08 mln), CSR (828K) 
• Decreased: FUN (642K from 1743K), OUT (854K from 1242K), VTR (367K from 505K), GLPI (445K from 570K),FR (864K from 913K), AHR (1011K from 1053K), SKT (799K from 827K),EQIX (47K from 58K), SUI (276K from 285K), MAR (60K from 64K)

Jana Partners (Barry Rosenstein) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Added to FISV ALKT, Exited FRPT, Trimmed MRCY SPY MKL holdings; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• Increased: FISV (4.44 mln shares from 2.25 mln shares), ALKT (5.43 mln from 4.89 mln) 
• Maintained: RPD (6.74 mln shares), LW (5.01 mln), FUN (4.12 mln), COO (3.57 mln), EHAB (2.09 mln) 
• Exited: FRPT (0.56 mln) 
• Decreased: MRCY (4.11 mln shares from 4.96 mln shares), SPY (0.34 mln from 0.39 mln), MKL (0.08 mln from 0.08 mln)

Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New DAL GOOG M positions, Added to GOOGL NYT LEN holdings, Exited V UNH MA AON DPZ POOL AMZN LAMR CHTR positions, Cut CVX STZ NUE DVA (482.30 -1.36); Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: DAL (39.81 mln shares), GOOG (3.59 mln), M(3.04 mln)
• Increased: GOOGL (54.25 mln shares from 17.85 mln shares), NYT (15.15 mln from 5.07 mln), LEN (10.1 mln from 7.05 mln), LEN.B (0.24 mln from 0.18 mln)
• Maintained: BAC (513.62 mln shares), KO (400 mln), KHC (325.63 mln), OXY (264.94 mln), AAPL (227.92 mln), AXP (151.61 mln), SIRI (124.81 mln), KR (50 mln), CB (34.25 mln),
• Exited: V (8.3 mln), UNH (5.04 mln), MA (3.99 mln), AON (3.6 mln), DPZ (3.35 mln), POOL (3.07 mln),FWONK (3.02 mln), LILA (2.4 mln), AMZN (2.28 mln), HEI.A (1.29 mln), LILAK (1.28 mln), LAMR (1.2 mln), CHTR (1.06 mln), ALLE (780K), DEO (228K), BATRK(115K)
• Decreased: CVX (84.38 mln shares from 130.16 mln shares), STZ (0.63 mln from 13 mln), NUE (3.91 mln from 6.41 mln), DVA (30.1 mln from 31.76 mln),LLYVK (10.59 mln from 10.92 mln)

ValueAct (Jeffrey Ubben and Bradley Singer) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New KKR WIX SPOT positions, Added to TOST V holdings, Exited NSIT, Lowered RKT DIS AMZN MDB LYV BLK META holdings; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: KKR (3.28 mln shares), WIX (1.1 mln), SPOT(0.36 mln)
• Increased: TOST (12.9 mln shares from 8.02 mln shares), V (2.32 mln from 1.72 mln)
• Maintained: CRM (2.99 mln shares)
• Exited: NSIT (1.22 mln shares)
• Decreased: RKT (28.21 mln shares from 39.38 mln shares), DIS (0.4 mln from 3.08 mln), AMZN (2.88 mln from 3.39 mln), MDB (1.04 mln from 1.41 mln), LYV(0.62 mln from 0.82 mln), BLK (0.55 mln from 0.7 mln), LLYVK (3.56 mln from 3.6 mln) LLYVA (1.78 mln from 1.8 mln), RBLX (5.85 mln from 5.98 mln), META(916K from 1.05 mln), SSD (1.4 mln from 1.47 mln)

Carl Icahn discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Added to CVI position, Exited SWX, Lowered SATS holding; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• Increased: CVI (71.2 mln shares from 70.42 mln shares)
• Maintained: IEP (549.4 mln shares) JBLU (33.62 mln), CTRI (14.34 mln), IFF (4.28 mln), UAN (4.16 mln), AEP (1.21 mln)
• Exited: SWX (6.03 mln shares)
• Decreased: SATS (1.4 mln shares from 3.35 mln shares)

Himalaya Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New TME HRB SPGI MCO MSCI positions; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: TME (6.59 mln), HRB (1.63 mln), SPGI (121K), MCO (118K), MSCI (19K)
• Increased: CROX (887K from 628K)
• Maintained: PDD (4.61 mln), EWBC (2.78 mln), GOOGL (2.54 mln), GOOG (2.45 mln), OXY (1.47 mln), BRK.B (898K)
• Decreased: BAC (2998K from 10431K)

DME / Greenlight Capital (David Einhorn) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New DCH STUB PSKY SLM VTRS REZI TRIP positions, Added to PTON ACHC SHC BKV GPK SLDE VSCO holdings, Exited KD WBD PRKS GPN; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: DCH (6.31 mln shares), STUB (4.23 mln), PSKY(3.93 mln), VSNT (3.03 mln), SLM (2.1 mln), VTRS(1.82 mln), REZI (1.57 mln), TRIP (1.56 mln), CROX(0.67 mln), ZIM (0.35 mln)
• Increased: PTON (10.11 mln shares from 0.25 mln shares), SHC (2.07 mln from 0.46 mln), BKV (2.7 mln from 1.29 mln), GPK (9.1 mln from 8.42 mln), SLDE(1.69 mln from 1.15 mln), VSCO (2.26 mln from 1.74 mln), SNX (0.48 mln from 0.06 mln), ACHC (4.52 mln from 4.12 mln), COYA (2.34 mln from 2.03 mln), BHF(2.84 mln from 2.79 mln), DECK (481K from 299K),CPRI (4.93 mln from 4.77 mln), HSIC (599K from 469K), CNC (2.73 mln from 2.64 mln), ROIV (2.15 mln from 2.07 mln)
• Maintained: GRBK (9.47 mln shares), PENN (6.04 mln)
• Exited: KD (from 3.82 mln shares), WBD (1.53 mln),PRKS (575K), GPN (453K), KWEB (132K), GDX (65K)
• Decreased: DHT (5.27 mln shares from 7.37 mln shares), CNH (4.19 mln from 5.77 mln), PCG (6.63 mln from 7.78 mln), FLR (4.75 mln from 5.56 mln), WFRD(0.15 mln from 0.74 mln), CNR (1.86 mln from 2.1mln), AR (0.81 mln from 1.01 mln), TEVA (2.91 mln from 3.06 mln), SPB (0.65 mln from 0.66 mln), LBTYA(4.96 mln from 5 mln), GLD (100K from 171K), CI(88K from 94K)

Long Pond John Koury) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New JAN DOC NCLH JHX AMH KRC positions, Added to JBGS IRT KREF PRKS WH, Exited; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: JAN (3.3 mln shares), DOC (2.5 mln), NCLH (1.7 mln), JHX (1.16 mln), AMH (1.11 mln), KRC (1.04 mln), FUN (750K), SMA (613K), WYNN (529K), TMHC(174K)
• Increased: IRT (5.7 mln shares from 1 mln shares),KREF (5.73 mln from 1.56 mln), PRKS (1.68 mln from 0.86 mln), JBGS (4.4 mln from 4.2 mln), PRKS (1681K from 855K), WH (702K from 338K), CPT (401K from 54K), LINE (411K from 184K), CUBE (435K from 347K), H (224K from 203K)
• Maintained: INN (9.4 mln shares), TRTX (7.03 mln)
• Exited: NSA (from 2.59 mln shares), CZR (1.48 mln), GLPI (994K), SHO (485K), TREX (484K), ARE(479K), PLD (350K), VRE (150K), AVB (140K)
• Decreased: COLD (4.5 mln shares from 5.8 mln shares), SAFE (554K from 945K), NXRT (453K from 843K), CSR (190K from 444K), HGV (485K from 732K), MHO (48K from 71K), SLG (130K from 138K)

Altimeter Capital (Brad Gerstner) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New ARM AXON positions, Added to UBER CRWV NVDA TSM META AVGO holdings; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: ARM (1.72 mln shares), AXON(149K) 
• Increased: UBER (7.97 mln shares from 5.59 mln shares), CRWV (4.5 mln from 3.21 mln), NVDA (9.34 mln from 8.1 mln), TSM (1.37 mln from 1.22 mln), META (1.95 mln from 1.85 mln), AVGO (0.07 mln from 0.03 mln) 
• Exited: CPNG (from 15.68 mln shares), CFLT (6.93 mln), Z (2.19 mln), SHOP(0.57 mln), GOOGL (0.52 mln), BE(0.26 mln), MELI (0.07 mln) 
• Decreased: HOOD (0.9 mln shares from 1.29 mln shares), AMZN (2.09 mln from 2.22 mln), SNOW (1.93 mln from 2.03 mln), MSFT (1.18 mln from 1.28 mln)

Soros Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New EIKN AMT TXN positions, Added to PUMP ALC, Exited NBIS EWZ AEO GM CZR; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: EIKN (485K), AMT (53K), TXN(25K), AS (21K), GEV (18K), ADI(16K), SKYW (15K) 
• Increased: PUMP (1.09 mln from 685K), ALC (94K from 76K), CAT (17K from 8K), MSI (14K from 7K), NFLX(31K from 25K), DHR (33K from 27K), FIX (12K from 6K), TJX (19K from 14K), AMZN (35K from 32K), VRSN(21K from 18K), NVDA (12K from 9K), LOW (19K from 17K), IUSB (6K from 5K), CPAY (13K from 12K) 
• Maintained: PACK (4.63 mln), WULF(713K), CP (69K), NKE (69K) 
• Exited: NBIS (229K), EWZ (150K), AEO (143K), GM (131K), CZR (100K), ON (90K), GAP (74K), BSX (55K), EWY(53K), CHDN (50K), SEI (44K), TM(23K), TRU (22K) 
• Decreased: GOOGL (6K from 247K), TSM (5K from 83K), AVGO (7K from 81K), FLUT (3K from 34K), GDDY (16K from 42K), ICE (15K from 34K), BE(38K from 57K), V (22K from 31K), TPR(4K from 9K), SBUX (47K from 51K), EME (6K from 9K), UNP (1

Soros Fund (George Soros) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New CX TALK OBDC MFIC SEM AES VRE positions, Exited DBRG INDV JHG ONB CADE TRIP; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: CX (2.99 mln), TALK (2.77 mln), OBDC (2.45 mln), MFIC (1.94 mln), SEM (1.83 mln), AES (1.56 mln), VRE (1.53 mln), HTO (1.23 mln), OTF (1.01 mln), BXSL (868K), NATL (730K), WBS (712K), SUNB(546K), POR (506K), THR (448K), GFS (444K), ING M(400K), STLA (379K), NSA (317K), KWEB (300K), SVAC (295K), SHLS (289K), ARRY (275K), LIN(260K ), HYG (250K), WIX (250K), CG (245K), KKR(245K), VST (244K), JAN (229K), ETSY (215K), PEN(203K), MDA (200K), ARES (196K), COF (180K), BX(173K), TPG (173K), NOW (154K), KO (151K), EQPT(150K), OFRM (150K), MWH (141K), BRK.B (133K),APO (131K), LBRDK (127K), MCD (124K)
• Increased: CCO (5.41 mln from 680K), BGC (4.2 mln from 2.11 mln), KVUE (3.16 mln from 1.25 mln), EVGO(6.04 mln from 4.5 mln), WBD (1.09 mln from 150K),OWL (2.02 mln from 1.19 mln), EA (966K from 428K), WEC (513K from 96K), NVDA (1.07 mln from 666K), CORZ (329K from 5K), HON (358K from 71K), SARO(700K from 425K), TEAM (536K from 287K), SEMR (1.48 mln from 1.29 mln), GTLS (470K from 286K), VSEC (157K from 7K), SW (2.52 mln from 2.4 mln),JPM (118K from 2K), FWONK (247K from 140K), AAPL (501K from 416K), LCID (173K from 96K), BHF(847K from 774K), CRBG (2.13 mln from 2.07 mln)
• Exited: DBRG (2.4 mln), INDV (1.15 mln), JHG(997K), ONB (856K), CADE (597K), TRIP (520K), FUN (440K), SAIL (425K), LION (401K), ENP H(400K), CSGS (377K), FXI (325K)
• Decreased: RUN (20K from 2.23 mln), FIGR (1 mln from 2.1 mln), ALLY (725K from 1.69 mln), EXC (105K from 623K), STUB (125K from 487K), XLF (12K from 312K), MDLN (1.29 mln from 1.58 mln), SRE (109K from 397K), DDOG (101K from 380K), ITT (90K from 329K), GFL (530K from 733K), CNM (232K from 434K), CORZW (874K from 1.06 mln), ULS (395K from 581K), AMRZ (89K from 267K), CRM (361K from 519K), RDNT (438K from 575K), IBKR (645K from 771K), GO (37K from 137K), CODI (25K from 125K), BKU (31K from 130K), AAMI (649K from 737K), GL(60K from 146K), CRH (115K from 200K), WWD (100K from 181K), SMR (70K from 150K), ETR (77K from 156K)

Paulson & Co (John Paulson) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New FOLD position, Added to THM THRY holdings, Exited SOLS; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: FOLD (0.03 mln shares)
• Increased: THM (99.57 mln shares from 70.24 mln shares), THRY (8.44 mln from 4.35 mln)
• Maintained: BHC (73.26 mln shares), PPTA (32.35 mln), NG (27.24 mln), AAMI (7.74 mln), AEM (0.78 mln)
• Exited: SOLS (1.4 mln shares)
• Decreased: MDGL (1.39 mln shares from 1.71 mln shares)

Trian Fund (Nelson Peltz) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New MICC position, Maintained JHG WEN SOLV GE IVZ FERG holdings; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: MICC (241K)
• Maintained: JHG (31.87 mln shares), WEN (30.45 mln), SOLV (8.24 mln), GE (4.03 mln), IVZ (2.97 mln), FERG (1.09 mln)

Third Point (Dan Loeb) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New HUT GOOGL GLD META LRCX AVGO positions, Exited PCG RKT BN CMG KVUE CSGP VST, Cut NVDA UNP LYV SGI SN APG holdings; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: HUT (870K), GOOGL (175K), GLD (95K), META(90K), LRCX (75K), AVGO (50K), SMH (40K), TDG( 25K), ASML (12K), KLAC (11K)
• Increased: SPRY (1 mln from 556K)
• Maintained: SRTA (5 mln)
• Exited: PCG (34.3 mln), RKT (9.52 mln), BN (6.2 mln), CMG (4.73 mln), KVUE (3.25 mln), CSGP (3.17 mln),VST (1.01 mln), MSFT (925K), BABA (825K), LPLA(510K), CSX (500K), CEG (475K), CASY (455K), BHC(350K), WI X (225K), PGR (220K), FIX (105K), SPOT(100K), TMO (50K)
• Decreased: NVDA (190K from 2.95 mln), UNP (100K from 1.81 mln), LYV (465K from 1.73 mln), SGI (2.27 mln from 3.4 mln), SN (131K from 1.2 mln), APG (2.03 mln from 3 mln), COF (140K from 1.1 mln), NSC (100K from 975K), CRH (1.9 mln from 2.6 mln), MTZ (320K from 925K), CRS (310K from 785K), AMZN (1.94 mln from 2.17 mln), TSM (275K from 425K), CTEV (44K from 145K), DHR  (525K from 600K), TDS (6.6 mln from 6.68 mln)

Lone Pine (Stephen Mandel) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New WULF HUT PFGC USFD GLW TER MTZ positions, Added to NU VST APP TLN CRS holdings, Exited AFRM PM DASH AMZN AVGO WING MSFT; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: WULF (19.92 mln shares), HUT (6.08 mln),PFGC (3.98 mln), USFD (3.8 mln), GLW (3.72 mln), TER (1.87 mln), MTZ (1.53 mln), CIEN (810K), AGX(393K), MCK (392K), GOOGL (188K)
• Increased: NU (38.01 mln shares from 29.63 mln shares), VST (6.19 mln from 5.21 mln), APP (1.46 mln from 0.78 mln), TLN (1.82 mln from 1.29 mln), CRS(1.82 mln from 1.31 mln), THC (2.26 mln from 1.79 mln), CLH (1.75 mln from 1.38 mln), V (93K from 15K),SPOT (69K from 18K), ASML (655K from 605K), HLT(89K from 58K), TDG (36K from 19K) 
• Maintained: MDLN (11.79 mln shares), ENTG (3.12 mln), COF (2.27 mln), LPLA (2.05 mln), CVNA (1.75 mln)
• Exited: AFRM (from 3.82 mln shares), PM (2.64 mln), DASH (2.53 mln), AMZN (2.41 mln), AVGO (1.73 mln),WING (1.6 mln), MSFT (1.23 mln)
• Decreased: KKR (0.18 mln shares from 5 mln shares),BN (11.21 mln from 15.92 mln), APH (223K from 2.81 mln), TSM (1.39 mln from 3.05 mln), VMC (144K from 1.68 mln), BSX (105K from 202K), MA (57K from 96K),BKNG (2K from 5K)

Starboard Value (Jeffrey Smith) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New KMX LW GPGI positions, Added to TRIP, Exited ADSK CRM; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: KMX (6.2 mln shares), LW (6.1 mln), GPGI (5.0 mln)
• Increased: TRIP (10.8 mln shares from 9.6 mln shares), IJH (5.8 mln from 5.3 mln)
• Maintained: ACTG (61.1 mln shares), KVUE (27.3 mln), MTCH (11.4 mln), QRVO (7.5 mln), BILL (7.0 mln)
• Exited: ADSK (from 1 mln shares), CRM (0.94 mln)
• Decreased: AQN (57.2 mln shares from 63.5 mln shares), HR (6.8 mln from 12.6 mln), CWAN (5.46 mln from 9.96 mln), GEN (7.81 mln from 10.59 mln), FLR(2.89 mln from 5.19 mln), NWS (2.59 mln from 4.44mln), ROG (0.58 mln from 1.2 mln), BDX (0.64 mln from 0.93 mln), NWSA (5.6 mln from 5.9 mln)

Elliott Management (Paul Singer) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New RIG NCLH positions, Added to HPE SDRL, Exited ST BILL positions, Cut LUV holding; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: RIG (15.63 mln shares), NCLH (13.19 mln)
• Increased: HPE (27.42 mln shares from 18.63 mln shares), SDRL (4.72 mln from 4.56 mln), HDB (797K from 217K)
• Maintained: TFPM (133.25 mln shares), UNIT (59.01 mln), SU (52.67 mln), PINS (28 mln), PSX (19.25 mln)
• Exited: ST (from 3.25 mln shares), BILL (3 mln), FSK(265K)
• Decreased: LUV (30.35 mln shares from 51.13 mln shares) 

NVDA; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: COHR (7.79 mln shares), GENB (0.83 mln)
• Increased: CRWV (47.21 mln shares from 24.28 mln shares)
• Maintained: INTC (214.78 mln shares),NOK (166.39 mln), SNPS (4.82 mln)

Pershing Square (Bill Ackman) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New MSFT position, Added to AMZN holding, Exited HLT; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• New: MSFT (5.65 mln shares)
• Increased: AMZN (11.45 mln shares from 9.61 mln shares)
• Maintained: HHH (18.85 mln shares)
• Exited: HLT (3.03 mln shares)
• Decreased: GOOG (312K shares from 6.16 mln shares), BN (59.7 mln from 61.4 mln), GOOGL (32K from 678K), UBER (29.96 mln from 30.21 mln), QSR(22.65 mln from 22.87 mln), META (2.66 mln from 2.67 mln)

Gates Foundation discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Exited MSFT, Trimmed BRK.B WM; Highlights from Q1 2026 filing as compared to Q4 2025 (all amounts are approximate):

• Maintained: CNI (51.83 mln shares), WMT (8.39 mln), CAT (6.35 mln), KOF (6.21 mln), ECL (5.22 mln), DE(3.56 mln), FDX (2.38 mln), WCN (2.04 mln)
• Exited: MSFT (7.69 mln shares)
• Decreased: BRK.B (17.05 mln shares from 19.41 mln shares), WM (27.64 mln from 28.93 mln)

Full 13F breakdown in pdf format available to pro subs

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 19:15

Trump Secures $17 Billion Annual Chinese Commitment For U.S. Farm Goods

Summary: 

• White House Says China Agreed To $17 Billion Annual Commitment To Purchase Agri Goods 

• China, U.S. Agree To Cut Levies On Select Products, Expand Agri Trade

• China, U.S. Reach Boeing Jet Purchase Agreement

• U.S. And China Agree To Establish Trade And Investment Boards

• Trump-Xi Summit Delivers Modest Trade Wins

White House Releases Fact Sheet

The White House has released more details about the agricultural deal it secured with China following President Trump's visit to Beijing last week to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

According to a White House fact sheet released on Sunday, China has agreed to buy at least $17 billion in U.S. agricultural products annually through 2028.

The commitment would add to previous soybean purchase pledges, though Beijing's own readout offered limited details.

The announcement may provide some relief to U.S. farmers.

Beyond agriculture, China has renewed access for more than 400 U.S. beef facilities, agreed to work toward restoring American poultry imports, and pledged to address Washington's concerns over rare-earth and critical-mineral supply restrictions.

Here's what the White House said:

DELIVERING FOR AMERICAN WORKERS, FARMERS, AND INDUSTRY: President Trump negotiated a sweeping package of commitments that will drive high-paying American jobs and open new markets for U.S. goods.

• China will purchase at least $17 billion per year of U.S. agricultural products in 2026 (prorated), 2027, and 2028, in addition to the soybean purchase commitments that it made in October 2025.

• China restored market access for U.S. beef by renewing expired listings of more than 400 U.S. beef facilities and adding new listings.  China will work with U.S. regulators to lift all suspensions of U.S. beef facilities.

• China resumed imports of poultry from U.S. states determined by the USDA to be free of highly pathogenic avian influenza.

• China will address U.S. concerns regarding supply chain shortages related to rare earths and other critical minerals, including yttrium, scandium, neodymium, and indium. China will also address U.S. concerns regarding prohibitions or restrictions on the sale of rare earth production and processing equipment and technologies.

• China approved an initial purchase of 200 American-made Boeing aircraft for Chinese airlines. This tranche of aircraft – China's first commitment to purchase American-made Boeing aircraft since 2017 – will drive high-paying, high-skilled U.S. manufacturing jobs and enable the Chinese people to fly on American-made planes for decades to come.

"Historically speaking, a $17 billion non-soybean ag commitment from China would move the US back at or near post- Phase One trade values," No Bull Ag analyst Susan Stroud told Bloomberg, referring to the agreement reached during Trump’s first term.

Stroud said, "The market has been desperate for any signs China may finally return for additional business — whether that’s corn, sorghum, cotton, beef, or beans."

China Responds With Agreements To Purchase Jets, Cut Levies, Expand Trade 

One day after President Trump left Beijing, following his multi-day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, China's Commerce Ministry released new details about agreements it had reached to purchaseU.S.. planes and farm goods.

• CHINA, US REACH ARRANGEMENTS ON BUYING US PLANES

The exact wording "reach arrangements"s in the Bloomberg headline is important because it suggests a framework, a commitment, or a negotiated understanding, not necessarily a finalized purchase contract for Boeing commercial jets.

Based on earlier reports, Trump said China agreed to buy 200 Boeing planes, with the total potentially rising to 750 aircraft.

The next set of headlines shows that the Trump team and Beijing have reached a partial trade de-escalation package following the summit:

• CHINA, US AGREE TO REDUCE LEVIES ON A CERTAIN RANGE OF PRODUCTS

• CHINA TO EXPAND BILATERAL TRADE W/ US ON AGR AND OTHER PRODUCTS

• CHINA VOWS TO EXPAND BILATERAL AGRI TRADE WITH US

The headlines point to a U.S.-China trade détente that is constructive for American industry, exporters, and U.S. farmers.

Now the larger question is what Trump and Xi agreed to behind closed doors regarding Tehran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. and China Agree To Establish Trade And Investment Boards As Trump-Xi Summit Delivers Modest Wins

U.S. and Chinese leaders agreed to establish a new "Board of Trade" and a parallel "Board of Investment" during President DonaldTrump'ss two-day visit to Beijing - a summit that ended much as it began: with significant pageantry, warm personal rapport between the leaders, and modest, incremental progress on trade. The new boards aim to oversee bilateral purchases, manage trade differences, facilitate deals in non-sensitive sectors (with roughly $30 billion in goods identified), and provide a standing channel to prevent future escalations without constant high-level intervention.

President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Alex Wong/Getty Images

The boards were a pre-summit priority pushed by U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. They build on preparatory talks in South Korea that produced what both sides described as "generally balanced and positive outcomes." Chinese state media, including Xinhua, highlighted the agreements as part of efforts to expand practical cooperation and maintain stable economic ties.

This development aligns with XiJinping's broader push to reframe the bilateral relationship as one of "constructive strategic stability" - a new guiding vision intended to provide predictability for the next three years and beyond, emphasizing cooperation as the mainstay while allowing for "moderate competition" and "manageable differences." Xi described it as a positive, sound, constant, and enduring stability that should translate into concrete actions.

Trade and Economic Deliverables

• Boeing Aircraft: China committed to purchasing 200 Boeing jets, with Trump indicating the order could potentially grow to 750 based on performance. This was the most visible commercial headline, though it fell short of earlier speculation around larger volumes and drew a muted market reaction.

• Agriculture and Energy: Progress on expanded U.S. farm product sales (soybeans, beef, and other goods, with reports of commitments up to $10–50 billion in some readouts) and potential energy deals. Xi told accompanying U.S. CEOs that China'ss door will only open wider" to American businesses, signaling greater market access in mutually beneficial areas.

• Investment Outlook: Discussions included pathways for Chinese investment into non-sensitive U.S. sectors, with the Board of Investment intended to provide clearer guidelines and reduce uncertainty from national security reviews.

Trump touted "fantastic trade deals" upon departure, while Xi emphasized win-win outcomes and the importance of sustaining momentum in economic ties.

And hey, America apparently needs 500,000 Chinese students in the US, and China should be able to purchase US farmland so that colleges and farm prices don't collapse, or something. 

NOW - Trump says it's good to have 500,000 foreign Chinese students in the U.S. and for China to purchase U.S. farmland; otherwise, colleges and farm prices would collapse: "I frankly think that it's good that people come from other countries and they learn our culture." pic.twitter.com/3vQDXpjchz

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) May 15, 2026 Areas Without Breakthroughs

Despite the institutional progress, several high-priority issues saw limited or no resolution:

• Nvidia H200 AI Chips: No major summit agreement on advanced AI chip exports. While some U.S. licensing approvals for sales to select Chinese firms occurred around the visit (with Jensen Huang joining the delegation), export controls remained a sticking point and were not centrally resolved in leader-level talks.

• Rare Earths: No announced extension of the existing truce or easing of Chinese export controls, which continue to affect U.S. chipmakers and aerospace firms. This remains a lingering vulnerability from prior tariff exchanges.

• Iran Conflict: Both leaders expressed a shared desire for stability and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Xi showing interest in greater U.S. oil purchases to reduce Middle East dependence. However, China offered no concrete commitments to leverage its influence with Tehran. Beijing’s foreign ministry reiterated support for peace efforts without pledging active intervention.

Taiwan And Competing Narratives

Competing narratives quickly emerged from the summit - highlighting the persistent gap in how Washington and Beijing frame their relationship. Chinese state media, including Xinhua, emphasized Taiwan as "the most important issue" in bilateral ties, with Xi warning Trump that mishandling it could lead to confrontation or even conflict while reiterating opposition to “Taiwan independence.” (U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, reaffirmed that American policy on Taiwan remains unchanged.) In contrast, the White House readout and Trump’s public comments focused heavily on international issues such as Iran, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, global energy security, and economic cooperation - including Xi’s reported interest in buying more U.S. oil to reduce Middle East dependence, fentanyl precursor controls, and increased agricultural purchases. Trump described the relationship as one that is “going to be better than ever before,” while Xi suggested that "cooperation benefits both, while conflict hurts both." Analysts noted that Beijing’s spotlight on Taiwan may serve to shape domestic and international perception and divert attention from other sensitive topics like trade imbalances, nuclear issues, and Iran. Meanwhile, the strong U.S. business delegation - including NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang - underscored Washington’s priority of securing concrete commercial wins. These divergent readouts reflect each side’s strategic messaging priorities: China seeking to reinforce red lines and stability on its terms, and the U.S. highlighting transactional progress and geopolitical alignment.

As Rabobank notes;

While markets kept a watchful eye on any headlines about the war in Iran, palates were left dry as only tepid announcements dripped out, such as that China “offered help” on Iran and “pledged not to send weapons.” What they did not manage to evade was a conversation about Taiwan. During the two and a half hour conversation with Trump, Xi underscored that US intervention in Taiwan could trigger a “highly dangerous situation.” While Rubio underscored that the topic of American arms sales to Taiwan wasn’t a major focus of discussion, it likely will be when Congress’ approved USD 14bn arms sale to Taiwan lands on Trump’s desk, and again when Xi visits the White House in September.

* * *

Overall Assessment: The summit went a long way in stabilizing ties through new dialogue mechanisms and modest commercial wins rather than grand bargains. Trump returned with a few modest wins he can highlight domestically ahead of midterms - though the whole 'Chinese students and farms' might be a tough pitch to MAGA, while Xi secured a narrative of strategic predictability and time for China to address its economic challenges.

Underlying rivalries in technology, supply chains, Taiwan, and global influence persist, but the relationship now has a more structured channel for management. Future progress is likely to remain incremental and transactional, with the newly agreed boards playing a central role in testing whether this stability proves durable.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 18:35

Iran Launches Crypto-Based "Hormuz Safe" Insurance Platform For Ships Crossing Strait

Via The Cradle

The Islamic Republic of Iran has launched a digital insurance platform, titled Hormuz Safe, in order to guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and provide coverage for commercial vessels. 

The platform will rely on cryptocurrency payments from vessels and is being advanced by the Iranian Economy Ministry, according to a Saturday report by Fars News Agency.  "The Ministry of Economy is advancing a plan that would make the management of the Strait of Hormuz possible through insurance - a model that would be acceptable to other countries during peacetime while still allowing Iran to exercise control over the Strait," the agency’s correspondent reported, citing a government document. 

via Associated Press

"Under this plan, Iran would achieve informational dominance and be able to distinguish between the transit of vessels from different countries," the report added. 

"From an international law perspective, while imposing tolls on ships in the post-war period may be possible, it would carry political costs. Management of the Strait would then be limited to selling services, which, under the best circumstances, would generate up to $2 billion in revenue for Iran. Under the Economy Ministry's plan, managing the strait through an insurance framework would enable the issuance of various marine insurance policies as well as certificates of financial responsibility," it explained. 

According to the document, the plan will start with insurance covering inspection, detention, and confiscation. Damage from military attacks would not be covered.

The ministry estimates that "this approach, while assuming low risk, would generate over $10 billion in revenue" for Iran. Since the start of the unprovoked US-Israeli war on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed to Washington and Tel Aviv. 

Chinese ships and vessels belonging to other nations, which have coordinated with Iran, including France and India, have at times crossed throughout the war and the so-called ceasefire period.

The Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) network reported on May 16 that several European governments have opened direct channels with Tehran to discuss safe passage through the waterway. 

The Fars News Agency report comes weeks after Bloomberg said Iran has set up a "toll booth" in the strait, requiring ships to undergo vetting and pay fees for safe passage. 

One of Tehran’s main terms is a new global system that would grant authority over the Strait of Hormuz, in coordination with Oman and potentially other regional states. 

Iran’s Economy Ministry Proposes Insurance-Based Model to Manage Strait of Hormuzhttps://t.co/40dZnoQg1M pic.twitter.com/Qlg1ME4zGL

— Fars News Agency (@EnglishFars) May 16, 2026

Iranian media said days ago that Iranian and Omani officials convened a legal-technical meeting in Muscat to discuss the Strait of Hormuz, arrangements for the secure passage of ships, and the sovereign rights of both nations over the waterway. The US has maintained an 'illegal' blockade of Iranian ports since the ceasefire began, while repeatedly threatening to renew bombardment. Israel has also said it is awaiting US approval to renew attacks against Iran.

Washington violated the truce earlier this month by attacking several vessels and bombing Iran’s coast. Iranian forces targeted two US military vessels in response (while the Pentagon maintains it was the other way around). The next day, skirmishes broke out between Iranian and US forces in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian officials are warning that "restraint has ended" and that renewal of the war will result in "crushing" responses. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 17:30

Big Pharma RINO Bill Cassidy Smoked By Trump-Endorsed Candidate In Louisiana Senate Primary

Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) came in third in Louisiana's Republican Senate primary on Saturday - marking the first time in nearly 15 years that a sitting US Senator has lost a primary in a regularly scheduled election. 

Instead, Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow led with ~45% of the vote, while state Treasurer John Fleming came in second at 28%.

Letlow and Fleming will now face off in a June 27 runoff. 

Cassidy was a notable fan of Obamacare, and voted to convict Trump during impeachment over the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot. He also helped sink Casey Means' nomination for surgeon general, which drew sharp criticism from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr, and his MAHA movement. He's been labeled a big pharma shill by opponents. 

With Bill Cassidy's primary defeat last night, @PeterKolchinsky has one less Big Pharma puppet to play with in Congress. https://t.co/NLmnYVaIXQ

— Jason Poulos (@jasonvpoulos) May 17, 2026

Of note...

• Over $1.2 million in career contributions from the pharmaceutical and health products industry, according to OpenSecrets data, with hundreds of thousands received in recent cycles.
• Pharma executives showered him with donations shortly after he became the top Republican on the Senate HELP Committee in 2023, including $5,800 from Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, $5,000 from Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks, and contributions from other PhRMA board members.
• Opposed key drug pricing reforms aimed at lowering prescription costs, while taking substantial industry money during those periods.
• Received nearly $330,000 from the pharma/health industry in the 2023-2024 cycle alone, ranking him among the top Senate recipients.

Sen. Bill Cassidy, the biggest obstacle to medical freedom and reforming the vaccine cartel got crushed yesterday in the Louisiana GOP primary. Cassidy has stood in the way of every reform proposed by RFKJ, opposed the appointment of anybody who would change the current corrupt… pic.twitter.com/pfJFr22cB0

— Autism Action Network (@AutismActionNet) May 17, 2026

The last time a sitting US Senator lost their seat in a primary was in 2012, when longtime Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN) lost his Republican primary to Richard Mourdock. 

🚨 HOLY CRAP! RINO Sen. Bill Cassidy just got completely SHUT OUT of his Senate seat — not only getting pummeled by Trump-backed Julia Letlow, but also losing to John Fleming, who got 2nd

This is the first time in nearly 15 YEARS a sitting US Senator lost their primary in a… https://t.co/1zvNKA5K7v pic.twitter.com/OxBTYO6dNq

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) May 17, 2026

Letlow, meanwhile, is your standard issue conservative. The Louisiana congresswoman has a solidly right-leaning congressional record. She earned Trump’s full backing after Cassidy voted to convict him, and she campaigned on core America First priorities including border security, energy production, and opposition to woke policies.

While critics on the right point to her membership in the more moderate Main Street Caucus, slightly softer Club for Growth scores on spending, and past academic work involving DEI language, these are relatively minor compared to her overall alignment with Republican and MAGA priorities. In the context of Louisiana’s deep-red politics, Letlow represents a clear shift away from Cassidy-style establishment Republicanism toward a more Trump-aligned Senate candidate heading into the June runoff.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 16:55

Largest Ukrainian Drone Attack On Moscow In Over A Year Leaves Four Dead

The Russian capital has just suffered possibly its single biggest and deadliest Ukrainian drone attack of the war - and certainly the largest attack wave on Moscow in the last year. It ironically comes exactly a week after President Zelensky signed on to a three day Russian 'Victory Day' ceasefire at the behest of President Trump. It also comes after several days of major Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine.

At least four people have been killed in the overnight large-scale assault wave, with dozens more wounded. Regional airports have been shut down, and there's been a sense of panic as the threat lingered into the daylight hours Sunday, with onlookers filming drones flying uncontested over Moscow airspace. 

via Telegram

"A woman died in Khimki, north of Moscow, and a person was trapped under rubble, regional governor Andrei Vorobiev said. A man and a woman were killed in the village of Pogorelki," BBC reports, citing local authorities.

Additionally, "A male Indian citizen was killed and three others injured, India's Moscow embassy said, but it was not clear whether these casualties were included in Vorobiev's tally. Another person died in Belgorod region bordering Ukraine."

The regional governor said that residences were on fire, with a home in the village of Subbotino, southwest of Moscow, being one of them. 

Reports say the attack marks the first time of the entire 4+ year long war that Ukraine directly struck a Moscow oil refinery, considered to be the most protected energy facility in the country, with multiple strikes landing on target.

Moment of attack on Moscow refinery:

For the first time, Ukraine has managed to hit the Moscow oil refinery, the most protected facility in the country - multiple strikes. pic.twitter.com/0CE3rYACwJ

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) May 17, 2026

Hours-long fire at the key refinery...

Among other burning Russian things across Moscow today, fires at Moscow's massive Solnechnogorsk oil facility continue to spread, 8 hours after Ukraine's strikes. pic.twitter.com/RDFOS8zMm6

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) May 17, 2026

Some eyewitness accounts said at one point drones were seen flying in formation over Moscow, as if to make a mockery of Russian anti-air defense.

Ukraine's drone swarms have long proven a major problem for Russia's military, being small and low to the ground, able to evade expensive air defenses which were designed to intercept larger, faster inbound projectiles like rockets or aircraft.

Overnight, Russia's defense ministry said 556 drones were intercepted around the country. Some 130 of them were intercepted in the Moscow region alone, but clearly at least dozens still made it through.

Ukriane hitting Moscow today… multiple times pic.twitter.com/iDu4rBqHct

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) May 17, 2026

Amid the suicide UAV attack mayhem, Sheremetyevo - Russia's busiest airport that serves Moscow - suffered drone damage and falling debris, but there were no reports of injury at the airport.

"The situation in the passenger terminals is calm. Sheremetyevo Airport is providing stable passenger and aircraft services," airport officials said.

There have also been dramatic scenes of massive fires just underneath busy highways, causing panicked drivers to try and get past the flames quickly and safely, and watching the skies above.

Damage at Sheremetyevo airport...

via X

Ukrainian President Zelensky later owned up to authorizing the attack, saying the strikes were an "entirely justified" response to the last several days of Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, including Kiev. This past week saw massive Russian attacks, which killed seven bystanders and wounded many more, including children.

Rare moment of chaos and fear over Moscow...

Moscow. Drone attack continues right now. Our local correspondent reports air defense activity directly above him. https://t.co/1Y7rrdEsjB pic.twitter.com/bMgFm6NCpT

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) May 17, 2026

The tit-for-tat drone hits have increasingly expanded to include civilian neighborhoods on either side of the border, sadly. The ground war has lately been largely stale-mated, with Russia having the clear edge, but the air war has been heating up - with both sides suffering serious damage, particularly at energy sites.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 15:45